Conventional Stock Research Articles

The Nexus between Green Bonds and European Banks: A Cross-Quantilogram Approach

Financial markets have the potential to magnify the adverse impacts of carbon-intensive assets, mainly in the case of a swift and unforeseen shift toward a low-carbon economy. Given that green bonds are already in the process of standardization and actively support the funding of environmental goals, this paper aims to explore their relationship with the European banking system. To achieve this objective, we utilize a cross-quantilogram approach, analyzing daily data gathered from July 2014 to January 2021 and examining bi-directional dependence. Our unique contribution lies in revealing the relationships between the green bond index and the stock market dynamics of European banks compared to their relationships with conventional stock market indices, which is a novel endeavor to the best of our knowledge. The results are consistent with prior research findings regarding the relationships between the green bond index and various companies and financial assets. These results confirm that other financial instruments impact green bonds, whereas the influence exerted by green bonds on other assets is minimal. Additionally, our study provides evidence indicating that the COVID-19 pandemic has altered the connections between these financial assets.

Do I slamic S tocks Outperform C onv entional S tocks During C risis Periods? A Global Comparison

Purpose: This study examines the performance of Islamic and Conventional stock indices during the Covid-19 pandemic crises. The aim of the study is to find the existence of safe havens in Islamic stock indices.
 Design/methodology/approach: The study uses mean and cumulative return values and the GARCH (1 1) model to examine the volatility performance of stock returns and the impact of Covid-19 on both indices.
 Findings: Our findings indicate that Islamic stock indices tend to outperform conventional indices during crisis periods, particularly in developing economies and in the short term. However, conventional stock indices exhibit stronger performance in the long run and post-crisis periods. Moreover, the study reveals that the effects of Covid-19 cases and deaths on both indices vary across countries. Additionally, Islamic stock returns demonstrate lower volatility compared to previous shocks and returns, whereas conventional indices experience higher volatility, particularly in developing countries. Therefore, the s tudy establishes that I slamic indices can serve as safe havens for investors in certain countries, but not universally.
 Research limitations/implications: The study can be extended and more effective by adding more crisis events and a number of years to examine long-term stock moments. The study can be helpful for investors in designing investment portfolios, especially in times of crisis where the majority of investors try to find safe havens for investment.
 Originality/value: This study is the first to examine the impact of recent crises on Islamic and conventional stock indices in the world's big stock markets. The study is also the first one to use the longest data period among the recent studies to differentiate the performance of Islamic and conventional indices.

Returns and Asymmetric Volatility Interdependencies between Sustainable and Conventional Stock Indices: Evidence from Developed and Emerging Countries

The study investigates the co-integration and asymmetric volatility interdependence between the sustainable and conventional stock indices of emerging and developed countries. Daily closing values are used from 1st January 2015 to 15th July 2022. The study employs ARDL and VAR-Granger causality model to examine long-run association and cause-effect relation, respectively. Moreover, the Bivariate EGARCH model is also used to analyse return and asymmetric volatility spillover between two indices. The analysis reveals no evidence of co-integration between sustainable and conventional indices. However, bidirectional causality exists in all countries except the United Kingdom (UK) and United Arab Emirates (UAE). The return spillover result exhibits that return of the conventional index of Japan and Brazil are negatively affected by changes in its sustainable index. The EGARCH results reveal the bidirectional volatility spillover in all the markets. The volatility shocks from the sustainable index of the United States of America (USA) and China have an asymmetric effect on the conventional indices of these countries. Further, positive asymmetric spillover was observed between the sustainable and conventional indices of Brazil and UK. The knowledge of linkage and asymmetric volatility spillover will assist the investors in portfolio management and formulating hedging strategies during financial and economic adversities.

A multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis of Islamic and conventional financial markets efficiency during the COVID-19 pandemic

This paper examines the efficiency of DJIM conventional and Islamic sectoral stock markets before and during the Covid-19 period. The study uses both sectoral stock markets' daily data from January 1, 2010, to August 1, 2022, and relies on the multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA). Firstly, we find that the conventional and Islamic sectoral stock markets are multifractal in the short and long run. Secondly, conventional and Islamic sectoral stock markets are characterized by long-term memory features in small fluctuations. Thirdly, in terms of efficiency before the Covid-19 period, in the Islamic sectoral market, the healthcare sector is the most efficient in the short run, and the financial sector is the most efficient in the long run. During the Covid-19 period, in the conventional sectoral market, the financial sector was the most efficient in the short run, and the utility sector was the most efficient in the long run.

Bitcoin in Conventional Markets: A Study on Blockchain-Induced Reliability, Investment Slopes, Financial and Accounting Aspects

Based on traditional market theory, this study aims to investigate whether conventional market investment slopes affect the unconventional Bitcoin market, considering both normal conditions and crises. This study examines three main characteristics of the economy-intensive blockchain system, namely reliability, investment slopes, financial and accounting aspects that ultimately determine the confidence in the choice to invest in cryptocurrency. The analysis focuses on the study of the Bitcoin (BTC) investment slopes during January 2014–April 2023, considering the specifics of blockchain technology and the inferences of ethics, reliability and real-world data on investment Tassets in the context of conventional regulated markets. Using an econometric model that incorporates reliability analysis techniques, factorial comparisons and multinomial regression using economic crisis periods as a dummy variable, this study reveals important findings for practical and academic purposes. The results of this study show that the investment slopes of Bitcoin (BTC) are mostly predictable for downward trends, when statistically significant correlations with the investment slopes of conventional stock markets are observable. The moderate or high increase in performance slopes pose several challenges for predictive analysis, as they are influenced by other factors than conventional regulated market performance inferences. The results of this study are of intense interest to researchers and investors alike, as they demonstrate that investment slopes analysis sheds light on the intricacies of investment decisions, allowing a comprehensive assessment of both conventional markets and Bitcoin transactions.

COINTEGRATION AND CONTAGION EFFECT CONVENTIONAL AND SHARIA STOCK INDICES DURING COVID-19

The COVID-19 pandemic has also affected stock price movement all over the world, along with the changes in the economic sector. Many studies have tried to reveal the integration of stock indices worldwide, but little show the Sharia Indices’ movement due to the COVID-19 pandemic. This study analyzes the cointegration and contagion effect during the pandemic on Conventional and Sharia stock indices in Asia Pacific, China, Malaysia, and Indonesia. This study explores the difference between Sharia and Conventional indices during the COVID-19 pandemic. VAR (Vector Auto-Regressive) and VECM (Vector Error Correction Model) were used to analyze the hypothesis with E-Views 12. The data used in this study was the closing date from each index from 1 July 2018 to 30 June 2022. This study showed no cointegration effect between Sharia indices during the pandemic, but there was a cointegration effect on Conventional indices. During the pandemic, there was a contagion effect on both Shariah and Conventional indices. The results of this study are expected to be a reference basis for promoting the Sharia Stock Market because it is more proven in dealing with crises than the Conventional Stock Market.

Dampak Deklarasi Capres-Cawapres terhadap Dinamika Pasar Modal di Indonesia:

This research aims to analyze the impact of the declaration of the presidential and vice presidential candidates on the dynamics of the capital market in Indonesia. The method used is quantitative analysis with a multiple dummy variable regression approach. The results prove that the declaration of the presidential and vice presidential candidates has a significant impact on the dynamics of the capital market in Indonesia. The movements of conventional stock indices (Composite and LQ45) and sharia stock indices (JII70 and ISSI) are significantly influenced by the declaration of the presidential and vice presidential candidate pairs for the 2024 Election, with quite strong correlations (Composite 0.6242, LQ45 0.6805, JII70 0.7968, and ISSI 0.5181). The declaration of the Anies-Muhaimin pair (Capres1) is positively correlated with the movement of the Composite stock index, LQ45, JII70 and ISSI. Meanwhile, the declaration of the Ganjar-Mahfudz pair (Capres 2) and the Prabowo-Gibran pair had a negative correlation with the movement of the Composite stock index. Research facts show that the capital market responded positively to the declaration of pair number 1 (Anies-Muhainin). On the other hand, the capital market responded negatively to the declarations of pair Number 2 (Prabowo-Gibran) and pair Number 3 (Ganjar-Mahfudz). The capital market was under greater pressure after the Prabowo-Gibran pair was declared. Market pressure is greater on Prabowo-Gibran compared to the Ganjar-Mahfudz pair and the Anies-Amin pair.
 Keywords: presidential and vice presidential candidate declaration, conventional capital market, sharia capital market

Spillover of volatility among financial instruments: ASEAN-5 and GCC market study.

The research examines a comovement and spillover of volatility among foreign exchange, conventional and shariah stock markets in Association of South East Asian Nation-5 (ASEAN) countries and Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity-Baba, Engle, Kraft and Kroner (GARCH-BEKK) and Dynamic Conditional Correlation (GARCH-DCC) models are used to capture the correlation and transmission volatility of the markets. The overall results show that both the Shariah and the conventional stock indices respond similarly to each country's currency. A bidirectional (two-way relationship) volatility spillover exists only in Malaysia and a unidirectional (one-way relationship) volatility is observed in Indonesia, Singapore, Thailand, and Bahrain. The rest of the markets-the Philippines, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE)-do not have any volatility spillover evidence. Based on DCC outcomes, the conventional and Shariah stock in ASEAN-5 countries and GCC countries reveal the market efficiency, i.e., a positive high conditional correlation. Only Bahrain shows less efficiency than the other countries. It implies no portfolio diversification advantage in conventional and Shariah stock indices. Contrarily, currency and stock (conventional and Shariah) markets provide portfolio diversification benefits for all ASEAN-5 and GCC countries.

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF SHARIA AND CONVENTIONAL STOCKS PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE USING SHARPE, TREYNOR AND JANSEN METHODS

The Sharia capital market emerged as an alternative vehicle for the investor community to invest in the financial world in accordance with Sharia principles. As an alternative investment vehicle, the Sharia capital market is of course also targeted by investors who care about Sharia in addition to the general objective as a vehicle used to a profitable investing. Based on this basic framework, this research was conducted with the aim of analyzing and comparing stock performance in the form of stock portfolios between Sharia-based and conventional one. The JII70 stock index was used as an object for the Sharia stock portfolio, while the conventional stock portfolio was represented by the LQ45 index. The performance assessment used on these two portfolios was a portfolio performance assessment using the Sharpe, Treynor, and Jensen methods during the Covid-19 pandemic. The performance of these stock portfolios according to the three methods showed positive results. The performance of the JII70 stock portfolio was lower than the LQ45 index although it is insignificant. Meanwhile, according to the Treynor index, the performance of the JII70 was better than the LQ45 although it is insignificant.

Do conventional and new energy stock markets herd differently? Evidence from China

This research investigates herding formation in a competing market setting of China’s conventional and new energy stock markets, making it the first of its kind to specify the difference in herding across these markets. Our results highlight investors’ tendency to herd in both types of energy markets with herding stronger for new energy stocks. Such a behavior tends to vary over time, displaying a dynamic pattern. Mixed evidence appears for the COVID-19 effect on herding: new energy stock investors choose to follow market consensus during the pandemic period, whereas their decision does not apply to conventional energy stock investors. Finally, information arrivals from the conventional energy market barely influence herding in the new energy market, while those from the new energy market help weaken herding in the conventional energy market. The evidence provides important implications for both energy stock investors and financial regulators.

Impact of COVID-19 on the Behaviour of Islamic and Conventional Investors: Evidence from the Indonesia Stock Market Crash 2020

Purpose — The aim of this paper is to investigate the influence of the COVID-19 outbreak on Indonesia’s conventional and Islamic stock markets through the lens of behavioural finance in the digital age. Design/Methodology/Approach — The analysis in this paper is focused on the short-run and long-run impact of variables associated with COVID-19—such as the number of COVID-19 cases and mortality, the Google Search Volume (GSV) for the search query associated with COVID-19, and the panic index related to COVID-19—on the returns of the LQ45 Conventional Index and Jakarta Islamic Index (JII), using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. Findings — In the short run, increasing mortality and GSV significantly decreases the returns on LQ45 and JII. By contrast, the returns of LQ45 and JII are unaffected by an increase in the number of cases or the panic index. In the long run, only the panic index affects the LQ45 returns. Originality/Value — This article makes three contributions to the literature. First, it compares the COVID-19 outbreak’s impact on conventional and Islamic stock markets. Second, it discusses the short-run dynamics and long-run impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on stock returns. Third, it provides an explanation of the empirical relationship between the COVID-19 outbreak and the stock market using a behavioural finance viewpoint. Practical Implications — Digital behavioural science-based policies are needed to prevent or lessen financial market crashes during future crises. ErratumArticle classification: Erratum from: ISRA International Journal of Islamic Finance Vol. 15 No. 3 (2023)Publisher: ISRA Research Management Centre, INCEIF University Shiddiqi, F.A. & Susamto, A.A. (2023), ‘Impact of COVID-19 on the Behaviour of Islamic and Conventional Investors: Evidence from the Indonesia Stock Market Crash 2020’, ISRA International Journal of Islamic Finance, Vol. 15 No. 3, pp. 142–159. https://doi.org/10.55188/ijif.v15i3.615It has been brought to our attention that an error in the affiliation of one of the authors has been inadvertently occurred during the publication process. The affiliation of author Faris Azzam Shiddiqi on page 142 should be changed from Graduate School Yogyakarta, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Yogyakarta, Indonesia to instead read: The Graduate School, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Yogyakarta, Indonesia. ISRA Research Management Centre, INCEIF University sincerely apologises to the authors for any inconvenience caused.This change has been effected in the online version of the paper. Citation:(2023), ‘Erratum’, ISRA International Journal of Islamic Finance, Vol. 15 No. 3, https://doi.org/10.55188/ijif.v15i3.615

Revisiting the impact of geopolitical risk on Sukuk, stocks, oil and gold markets during the crises period: fresh evidence from wavelet-based approach

Purpose In this study, the authors analyze the impact of geopolitics risk on Sukuk, Islamic and composite stocks, oil and gold markets and portfolio diversification implications during the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia–Ukraine conflict period.Design/methodology/approachThe study used a mix of wavelet-based approaches, including continuous wavelet transformation and discrete wavelet transformation. The analysis used data from the Geopolitical Risk index (GP{R), Dow Jones Sukuk index (SUKUK), Dow Jones Islamic index (DJII), Dow Jones composite index (DJCI), one of the top crude oil benchmarks which is based on the Europe (BRENT) (oil fields in the North Sea between the Shetland Island and Norway), and Global Gold Price Index (gold) from May 31, 2012, to June 13, 2022.Findings The results of the study indicate that during the COVID-19 and Russia–Ukraine conflict period geopolitical risk (GPR) was in the leading position, where BRENT confirmed the lagging relationship. On the other hand, during the COVID-19 pandemic period, SUKUK, DJII and DJCI are in the leading position, where GPR confirms the lagging position.Originality/value The present study is unique in three respects. First, the authors revisit the influence of GPR on global asset markets such as Islamic stocks, Islamic bonds, conventional stocks, oil and gold. Second, the authors use the wavelet power spectrum and coherence analysis to determine the level of reliance based on time and frequency features. Third, the authors conduct an empirical study that includes recent endogenous shocks generated by health crises such as the COVID-19 epidemic, as well as shocks caused by the geopolitical danger of a war between Russia and Ukraine.Highlights We analyze the impact of geopolitics risk on Sukuk, Islamic and composite stocks, oil and gold markets and portfolio diversification implications during the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia–Ukraine conflict period.The results of the wavelet-based approach show that Dow Jones composite and Islamic indexes have observed the highest mean return during the study period.GPR and BRENT are estimated to have the highest amount of risk throughout the observation period.Dow Jones Sukuk, Islamic and composite stock show similar trend of volatility during the COVID-19 pandemic period and comparatively gold observes lower variance during the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia–Ukraine conflict.

Interoperability of the revolutionary blockchain architectures and Islamic and conventional technology markets: Case of Metaverse, HPB, and Bloknet

This study examines how Islamic and conventional technology stock indices interact with blockchain technology assets including Metaverse, High-Performance Blockchain, and Blocknet, throughout different market conditions and horizons. A three-pronged approach is employed, namely the quantile cross-spectral coherency approach, the time-varying parameter vector autoregressions (TVP-VAR), and the Causality in quantiles methodology. The quantile coherency results show that connectivity between new generation blockchains and conventional and Islamic markets varies. It was found that the connectedness of the network of variables rises in the medium run and reaches its peak in the long run as a result of the TVP-VAR approach. It is evident from the results that the application of sharia screening only impacts the relationship between the technology stock index and digital assets significantly, but does not affect the connectedness and causality between the two. Technology managers, policymakers, and blockchain designers are able to gain new insights from these research findings.

The role of major markets in predicting the U.S. municipal green bond market performance: New evidence from machine learning models

This study aims to examine the impact of major markets (conventional bond, stock, and energy commodity markets) on the performance of U.S. municipal green bonds, accounting for economic risk factors. We also investigate the interactions between major markets and economic risk factors. In our analysis, we employ machine learning techniques, such as Random Forest (RF), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), CatBoost, and Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM) models and choose the best one depending on its performance measures. The analysis considers two sub-periods: the pre-COVID-19 and COVID-19 crisis periods. The Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) method is used to better interpret machine learning predictions. The main results indicate that, on the one hand, higher values of conventional bond market performance lead to higher municipal green bond market performance levels for the pre-COVID-19 period. On the other hand, compared to the impact of the conventional bond market, the stock and energy commodity markets have a more significant impact on the U.S. municipal green bonds during the COVID-19 crisis period. Last but not least, we find that major markets interact frequently with some macroeconomic risks and uncertainties during the COVID-19 crisis. Our research provides new insights into the investment potential of municipal green bonds.

Potential diversification benefits: A comparative study of Islamic and conventional stock market indexes

The study aims to contribute to the better understanding of potential diversification benefits for US and its major trading partners, namely Canada, Japan, and the UK, across both Islamic and conventional indexes. We applied a Dynamic Conditional Correlations (DCC) model to examine the dynamic correlation and volatility of returns during 2001–2017. The findings put in evidence that, unlike Canadian peers, Japanese indexes exhibit a low dynamic correlation with US indexes, which ultimately suggests diversification opportunities for US-based investors. Understanding volatilities and correlations patterns through international markets would help investors, policymakers, and market participants to take informed decisions, mitigate risks, and anticipate potential spillover effects.

ANALISIS PERBANDINGAN RISK DAN RETURN SAHAM SYARIAH DAN KONVENSIONAL PADA JAKARTA ISLAMIC INDEX (JII30) DAN INDEKS LQ45 PERIODE TAHUN 2020-2022

The purpose of this study is to find out the difference in the average Return and Risk of Islamic stocks on the Jakarta Islamic Index (JII) and conventional stocks on LQ45 in the period 2020 to 2022 from the website www.idx.co.id. The results of the descriptive analysis show that the returns on Islamic stocks are higher than conventional stocks (0.0095350 > 0.0046987 or 0.95% > 0.46%). Meanwhile, the risk level is higher for sharia stocks than conventional stocks, namely 0.1072991 > 0.1019323 or 10.72% > 10.19%. Based on the results of the different test using the Independent Sample t-test, it was found that the Equal Variance Assumed assumption can be identified as the Sig. (2-tailed) > ? value with a significance value of 0.737> 0.05, while the assumption of Equal Variances Assumed Return value Sig. (2-tailed) > ? value with a significance value of 0.607> 0.05. From these data it can be concluded that the results of the significance of risk and stock returns show a significance value that is greater than the significance level ? = 5% (0.05) so that it can be interpreted that there is no significant difference between the Return and Risk of Islamic stocks and conventional stocks.

Sharia’s Accounting Information Disclosure, Accountability, and Auditor Independence Effects on Stakeholder Trust: Analysis on Sharia Companies in Capital Market

Businesses in the food and beverage sector have strong opportunities to grow in their operations because people consume more food and beverages. In order to calculate the level of future risk, data relating to financial proportions must be worked out in other financial investigation structures. Investigating the financial challenges faced by companies in the food and beverage sector that trade conventional and Islamic stocks on the Indonesia Stock Exchange is the aim of this study. The research examines the relationship between these factors and stakeholder trust in order to understand the impact of accounting practices and auditor independence on the trustworthiness of Sharia companies. The study utilizes quantitative and associative approach. By measuring linearly and clauses to describe the relationship between two or more variables, associative research techniques are a type of research that uses statistical calculations to test hypotheses. Audit delay is one of the things that tempts businesses to change auditors. This study supports the hypothesis that organizations that experience audit delays are more likely to change auditors in the next period in an effort to win back investor confidence. The test findings show that audit opinion, audit delay, and financial strain all impact auditor turnover at the same time. The research findings show that organizations that experience accounting losses do not experience financial difficulties directly. Usually, businesses whose shares are listed on the Islamic stock index have stronger financial strength.

The impact of Covid-19 and Russia–Ukraine war on the financial asset volatility: Evidence from equity, cryptocurrency and alternative assets

This study investigates the volatility and external shock persistence within the financial and alternative assets markets during times of crises triggered by Covid-19 and the war in Ukraine. Univariate GARCH family models are used to capture the effect of financial turmoil caused by recent crises. Five different class of assets (which includes Islamic, ESG, Conventional, Crypto, FinTech, and commodities) have been chosen to represent a sample of the worldwide traditional financial market and alternative assets. The findings of this study revealed that almost all financial and alternative assets experienced an increase in volatility, except Bitcoin, across all observation periods. Islamic stock and ESG indexes exhibited high volatility before the Covid-19 outbreak. During the pandemic, all assets became more volatile. In addition, Islamic equities and ESG indexes showed relatively lower risk compared to conventional stocks and other alternative assets during the war. Multiple financial assets tend to be highly volatile during crises; however, global investors need to consider the advantages of incorporating Islamic stocks and ESG indexes as part of their investment portfolio innovation strategy, particularly in the presence of geopolitical risk.

Co-Movement and Performance Comparison of Conventional and Islamic Stock Indices during the Pre- and Post-COVID-19 Pandemic Era

This study conducts a comparative analysis of the performance of Islamic and conventional indices in both developed and developing countries and territories, considering the pre- and post-COVID-19 pandemic periods. The research employs performance index tools and time–frequency wavelet-based analysis to assess how the COVID-19 pandemic affected the performance, volatility, and co-movement of Islamic and conventional stock indices. The findings reveal that Islamic stock indices are more resilient and tend to outperform conventional stocks during crisis periods in both developed and developing countries and territories, and this trend holds true in the long and short term across most countries. The analysis of wavelet coherence indicates a strong co-movement and coherence between Islamic and conventional indices. Furthermore, the study reveals that in developing countries and territories, the co-movement is characterized by weak coherence and high volatility compared to developed countries and territories. The study highlights the significance of Islamic indices as safe havens for investors during times of crisis, suggesting that including Islamic equities in investment portfolios can potentially yield higher returns compared to conventional indices. This research holds practical value for individual traders involved in the online trading of global stock indices, aiding them in constructing and designing internationally diversified portfolios. Unlike previous studies that focused on specific countries and territories and indices, this study offers a comprehensive examination of the behavior of Islamic and conventional indices across major global markets during both crisis and noncrisis periods. The results contribute significantly to the existing literature and offer valuable insights for investors.

Pengaruh Ekonomi Makro terhadap Volatilitas Return Indeks Saham Konvensional dan Syariah

The high number of actors investing in the stock market requires investors to have understanding and information about the rate of return and risk that will occur. For this reason, investors need to know what predictable factors can affect stock returns. Therefore, this study aims to determine the effect of inflation, exchange rates, BI rates, and foreign exchange reserves on return volatility of conventional and sharia stock indexes. The type of data used is secondary quantitative data from the Indonesia Stock Exchange, Bank Indonesia, the Central Bureau of Statistics, Google Finance. The population in this study is the conventional and sharia stock index. Sample data determined by purposive sampling method. This study uses the Panel Data Regression Analysis model with a combination of time series and cross section data to see the effect of the independent variables on the dependent variable. The data processing aids used in this study were Microsoft Excel 2010 and Eviews version 10. The results of the study found that conventional stock index return volatility for inflation had a negative and significant effect, the BI Rate had a negative and insignificant effect, the exchange rate had a positive and significant effect and device backup has a negative and significant effect. Whereas on the return volatility of the sharia stock index for the inflation variable has a negative and significant effect, the Bi Rate has a negative and significant effect, the exchange rate has a positive and significant effect, and foreign exchange reserves have a negative and insignificant effect.