Convenience Yield Research Articles

Benchmark interest rates when the government is risky

Since the global financial crisis, interest rate swap rates, which represent future uncollateralized interbank borrowing, have fallen below maturity-matched Treasury rates. This is surprising, because US Treasuries, which are deemed expensive because of superior liquidity and safety, should produce yields that are lower than those of swap rates. We show, by no-arbitrage, that sovereign default risk explains negative swap spreads even without frictions such as balance sheet constraints, convenience yield, and hedging demand. We support this explanation with an equilibrium model that jointly accounts for macroeconomic fundamentals and the term structures of interest and US credit default swap rates.

Speculative incentives to hoard aluminum: Relationship between capital gains and inventories

This study explores the relationship between the capital gains and inventory in the aluminum market. We provide analytical evidence concerning how the increase in opportunities for speculative incentives from aluminum inventories caused an unprecedented purchase of inventories between 2009 and 2014. In this study, adjusted basis represents monetary and non-monetary value gained from holding inventory; if positive, this shows capital gains occurring from inventory, and if negative, the absolute value of the adjusted basis represents the convenience yield. Unlike the previous literature on convenience yields which assumes uniform relationship between adjusted basis and inventory throughout the period, we open the possibility of time-variance between variables by using dynamic linear model (DLM) and the time-varying parameter-vector autoregression-stochastic volatility (TVP-VAR-SV). A series of analysis in this study suggests clear evidence of inventory having been increased in pursuit of the monetary profit opportunities in the aluminum market.

The causes and challenges of low interest rates: insights from basic principles and recent literature

PurposeWhat causes the downward trend of real interest rates in major developed economies since the 1980s? What are the challenges of the near-zero interest and inflation rates for monetary policy? What can the policymakers learn from the latest developments in the monetary and interest rate theory? This paper aims to answer these questions by reviewing both basic principles of interest rate determination and recent academic and policy debates.Design/methodology/approachThe paper critically reviews the explanations for the downward trend of real interest rates in recent decades and monetary policy options in a near-zero interest rate environment.FindingsThe decline of real interest rates is likely an outcome of multiple technological, social and economic factors including diminished productivity growth, changing demographics, elevated tail-risk concerns, time-varying convenience yields of safe assets, increased global demand for safe assets, rising wealth and income inequality, falling relative price of capital, accommodative monetary policies, and changes in industry structure that alter the investment and saving behaviors of the corporate sector. The near-zero interest rate limits the space of central banks' response to economic crises. It also challenges some conventional wisdoms of monetary theory and sparks radically new ideas about monetary policy.Originality/valueThis survey differs from the existing work by taking a broader view of both economics and finance literature. It critically assesses the economic forces driving the global decline of real interest rates through the lens of basic principles and empirical evidence and discusses the merits and limitations of each proposed explanation. The study emphasizes the importance of a better understanding of economic forces driving diverging trends of corporate investment and saving behaviors. It also discusses the implications of the neo-Fisherism and the fiscal theory of price level for monetary policy in a low interest rate environment.

Electricity derivatives: an application to the futures Italian market

Since the liberalization of electricity markets, electricity prices are more volatile and expansion in electricity derivatives trading occurs. Indeed, a well-known feature of electricity prices concerns its high volatility. For this reason, operators use power futures to hedge against unexpected risk deriving from adverse fluctuations of spot prices within the planned delivering period. Indeed, futures contracts permit to fix the price of electricity in advance for the use in the scheduled period. Our paper is devoted specifically to the Italian electricity market. In this respect, we examine empirical data from IDEX, the Energy Derivatives part of the Italian derivatives market IDEM, administered by “Borsa Italiana.” We finally survey the possible connections concerning futures and spot prices and, as a consequence, we deduce information about important indicators whereof the ex-post risk premium and the net convenience yield. For this purpose, we use several regression techniques to determine suitable explanatory variables inherent the Italian market for the ex-post risk premium and the net convenience yield.

The Impact of Monetary Policy on the Specialness of U.S. Treasuries

I estimate the causal effect of monetary policy on the specialness of U.S. Treasuries. Measuring this specialness using the U.S. Treasury Premium, which is the difference in the convenience yield of U.S. Treasuries and that of government bonds of other developed countries measured as the deviation from covered interest parity between government bond yields, I find that monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve increases the specialness of U.S. Treasuries primarily by increasing the convenience yield of U.S. Treasuries. I also find that the magnitude of the impact varies across the term structure and across countries, especially after the GFC, and U.S. and foreign monetary policy shocks have asymmetric impacts on the specialness of U.S. Treasuries. These results provide evidence for the unique ability of the Federal Reserve to affect the specialness of U.S. Treasuries by altering the supply of dollar safe assets.

An Empirical Analysis of Commodity Convenience Yields

Driven by relative scarcity, convenience yields significantly impact risk management and (real) option valuation. We study the determinants of convenience yields using a unique dataset of inventories to proxy for relative scarcity. We find that convenience yields are negatively related to (discretionary) inventories. Marginal convenience yields plateau with a low supply/inventory for crude oil, but decline monotonically for copper and natural gas. Consistent with recent theory, inventory withdrawals are non-monotonically related to the convenience yield and they forecast significant futures returns. In addition, we test the effect of demand shocks on temporary and permanent price components. We show that the spot price-convenience yield correlation is time varying. Moreover, anticipated mean reversion and the spot price-convenience yield correlation both vary with relative scarcity. Our results suggest an exogenous price process distinct from those considered in earlier papers and which generates significantly different (real) option values.

Dynamics of Market Anomalies and Measurement Errors of Risk-Free Interest Rates

Two-market anomalies since the 2008 global financial crisis – the widespread failure of covered interest parity (CIP) in foreign exchange swaps and negative 30-year US dollar interest rate swap-Treasury spreads have been challenging for conventional asset pricing models. Using a three-factor non-Gaussian-term structure model for the US Treasuries, an estimated short-rate premium tends to move in tandem with the CIP deviations and negative swap spread. The dynamics between the premium and two-market anomalies are found to be cointegrated, suggesting a long-run equilibrium between them. As the premium is found to be empirically related to demand for Treasuries, including the Fed’s quantitative easing program and demand for safe assets, it may reflect a convenience yield embedded in the yield curve such that the observed Treasury interest rate is lower than the true risk-free interest rate. The anomalies manifest such measurement error as additional spreads on the observed US dollar interest rates for pricing the corresponding instruments, consistent with recent studies that the US dollar and its interest rates play an important role in determining the CIP deviations.

An Empirical Analysis of Commodity Convenience Yields

We study convenience yield dynamics using a dataset of inventories to proxy for relative scarcity. We confirm that convenience yields are negatively related to inventories although they plateau during periods of scarcity for crude oil. Inventory withdrawals are non-monotonically related to the convenience yield and they forecast significant futures returns. Testing for the effect of demand shocks, we document both temporary and permanent price components. Importantly, we show that mean reversion in expected equilibrium prices varies with relative scarcity. This result suggests an important bias in contingent claims models in extant practice.

Exchange Rates and Asset Prices in a Global Demand System

Using international holdings data, we estimate a demand system for financial assets across 36 countries. The demand system provides a unified framework for decomposing variation in exchange rates, long-term yields, and stock prices; interpreting major economic events such as the European sovereign debt crisis; and estimating the convenience yield on US assets. Macro variables and policy variables (i.e., short-term rates, debt quantities, and foreign exchange reserves) account for 55 percent of the variation in exchange rates, 57 percent of long-term yields, and 69 percent of stock prices. The average convenience yield is 2.15 percent on US long-term debt and 1.70 percent on US equity.

Closed-form analytical solutions for options on agricultural futures with seasonality and stochastic convenience yield

Abstract Stochastic commodity price models play a significant role in the pricing and hedging of commodity derivatives and real assets. This paper proposes a commodity pricing model that extends the Ewald and Ouyang two-factor model by adding a time-varying function into the volatility term of convenience yield process to describe seasonality. The stochastic factors in the model are the spot price of the commodity is assumed to follow geometrical Brownian motion process with a stochastic drift, the instantaneous convenience yield follows a mean-reverting Ornstein-Uhlenbeck stochastic process with time-varying seasonal volatility. The model we propose is analytically tractable and allows us to derive closed-form pricing formulas for futures and options by using the Mellin transform method. In addition, we provide the experiments results to illustrate the important properties of commodity futures options with numerical table and graphs.

The US Treasury floating rate note puzzle: Is there a premium for mark-to-market stability?

We find that Treasury floating rate notes (FRNs) trade at a significant premium relative to the prices of Treasury bills and notes. This premium is directly related to the near-constant nature of FRN prices and is correlated with measures reflecting investor demand for safe assets. Money market funds are often the primary investors in FRNs, and the FRN premium is related to flows into funds with fixed net asset values, but not to flows into funds with variable net asset values. These results provide strong evidence that the FRN premium represents a convenience yield for the mark-to-market stability feature of FRNs.

Safe Asset Migration

Post-crisis reforms changed the location of safe asset production. I propose a pair of tests to identify who issues safe assets and which safe asset issuers opportunistically time issuance when the price of safe assets is high. The Federal Home Loan Bank (FHLB) system is a newly crucial safe asset producer. FHLB debt issuance is an important determinant of the price of safe assets, and FHLB debt issuance responds to day-to-day fluctuations in the demand for safe assets — measured via the convenience yield. FHLBs issue more after an unexpected increase in the convenience yield and an unexpectedly large FHLB issue decreases the convenience yield. The FHLBs' ability to produce safe assets depends on their implicit government backing, a potential source of concern for future policymakers.

Jumps in the convenience yield of crude oil

The potential presence of jumps and time-varying volatility in convenience yields can lead to abnormally fat tails, which has implications for investment in storage capacity, leasing and drilling for crude oil. In this paper we evaluate the potential for these features in convenience yields. To that end, we analyze the rate of change in convenience yields for five futures prices time horizons (1, 3-, 6-, 9- and 12-month ahead), allowing for the both jumps and time-varying volatility. We find that both features exert a statistically important effect on convenience yields, for each of the five time horizons. We also calculate the implied probability that at least one jump would occur on any date, which reveals a period of relative calm at the start of the fracking boom, when large stockpiles built up at the trading hub for West Texas Intermediate, and a period of considerable churn, after the ban on exporting crude oil was lifted. Both elements underscore a linkage between inventory holdings and convenience yields.

Pricing Asian Options with Stochastic Convenience Yield and Jumps

We price Asian options on commodity futures contracts in the presence of stochastic convenience yield, stochastic interest rates and jumps in the commodity spot price. We obtain a closed-form solution for the case of a geometric average option without the presence of jumps, both for continuous and discrete averaging. This analytic result enables us to employ the geometric average option as suitable control variate for pricing the corresponding arithmetic average Asian option via Monte Carlo simulation. We observe a significant reduction in the size of confidence intervals in relation to plain Monte Carlo. Varying the parameters of the model, we obtain a good understanding as to how Asian option prices change accordingly in relation to a stochastic convenience yield. We then consider a variation of the model by adding stochastic jumps to the commodity spot price dynamics. By conditioning on the jump times first and then averaging over the sequences of jump times, we show that our control variate still provides a significant variance reduction, even though a closed-form solution for a geometric average Asian option in the presence of jumps is unavailable.

Pricing of Commodity Derivatives on Processes with Memory

Spot option prices, forwards and options on forwards relevant for the commodity markets are computed when the underlying process S is modelled as an exponential of a process ξ with memory as, e.g., a Volterra equation driven by a Lévy process. Moreover, the interest rate and a risk premium ρ representing storage costs, illiquidity, convenience yield or insurance costs, are assumed to be stochastic. When the interest rate is deterministic and the risk premium is explicitly modelled as an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck type of dynamics with a mean level that depends on the same memory term as the commodity, the process ( ξ ; ρ ) has an affine structure under the pricing measure Q and an explicit expression for the option price is derived in terms of the Fourier transform of the payoff function.

Jumps in the Convenience Yield of Crude Oil

The potential presence of jumps and time-varying volatility in convenience yields can lead to abnormally fat tails, which has implications for investment in storage capacity, leasing and drilling for crude oil. In this paper we evaluate the potential for these features in convenience yields. To that end, we analyze the rate of change in convenience yields for five futures prices time horizons (1, 3-, 6-, 9- and 12-month ahead), allowing for the both jumps and time-varying volatility. We find that both features exert a statistically important effect on convenience yields, for each of the five time horizons. We also calculate the implied probability that at least one jump would occur on any date, which reveals a period of relative calm at the start of the fracking boom, when large stockpiles built up at the trading hub forWest Texas Intermediate, and a period of considerable churn, after the ban on exporting crude oil was lifted. Both elements underscore a linkage between inventory holdings and convenience yields.

Bond Convenience Yields in the Eurozone Currency Union

This paper analyzes bond convenience yields in a currency union. The intertemporal government budget constraint requires member countries' bond convenience yields and default spreads to adjust in response to shocks to their government surpluses. In the data, adjustments to convenience yields explain a larger fraction of the variation in Eurozone bond yields than default spreads. Higher convenience yields are correlated with stronger fiscal conditions both in the cross-section and in the time series. These findings imply large fiscal costs especially on the peripheral countries. If all Eurozone countries could have issued sovereign bonds at the same convenience yields as Germany, they would have raised an extra 281 billion euros in cumulative revenues from bond issuance between 2003 and 2020, representing 2.6% of 2020 Eurozone GDP.

Self-Exciting Jumps in the Oil Market: Bayesian Estimation and Dynamic Hedging

In this paper we propose a novel self-exciting jump diffusion model for oil price dynamics based on a Hawkes-type jump-diffusion process. In particular, the jump intensity is stochastic and path dependent, implying that the occurrence of a jump will increase the probability of observing a new jump and this feature of the model aims at explaining the jumps clustering effect. Moreover, volatility is described by a stochastic process, which can jump simultaneously with prices. The model specification is completed by a stochastic convenience yield. In order to estimate the model we apply the two-stage Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) sampler (Fulop and Li, 2019) to both spot and futures quotations. From the estimation results we find evidence of self-excitation in the oil market, which leads to an improved fit and a better out of sample futures forecasting performance with respect to jump-diffusion models with constant intensity. Furthermore, we compute and discuss two optimal hedging strategies based on futures trading. The optimality of the first hedging strategy proposed is based on the variance minimization, while the second strategy takes into account also the third-order moment contribution in considering the investors attitudes. A comparison between the two strategies in terms of hedging effectiveness is provided.

Evaluating Optimal Stopping Problems Under Multivariate Settings and Model Uncertainty

In this article we study the evaluation of American options with stochastic volatility models and the optimal fish harvesting decision with stochastic convenience yield models, in the presence of drift ambiguity. From the perspective of an ambiguity averse agent, we transfer the problem to the solution of a reflected backward stochastic differential equations (RBSDE) and prove the uniform Lipschitz continuity of the generator. We then propose a numerical algorithm with the theory of RBSDEs and a general stratification technique, and an alternative algorithm without using the theory of RBSDEs. We test the accuracy and convergence of the numerical schemes. By comparing to the one dimensional case, we highlight the importance of the dynamic structure of the agent’s worst case belief. Results also show that the numerical RBSDE algorithm with stratification is more efficient when the optimal generator is attainable.

Pricing Asian Options with Stochastic Convenience Yield and Jumps

We price Asian options on commodity futures contracts in the presence of stochastic convenience yield, stochastic interest rates and jumps in the commodity spot price. We obtain a closed-form solution for the case of a geometric average option without the presence of jumps, both for continuous and discrete averaging. This analytic result enables us to employ the geometric average option as suitable control variate for pricing the corresponding arithmetic average Asian option via Monte Carlo simulation. We observe a significant reduction in the size of confidence intervals in relation to plain Monte Carlo. Varying the parameters of the model, we obtain a good understanding as to how Asian option prices change accordingly in relation to a stochastic convenience yield. We then consider a variation of the model by adding stochastic jumps to the commodity spot price dynamics. By conditioning on the jump times first and then averaging over the sequences of jump times, we show that our control variate still provides a significant variance reduction, even though a closed-form solution for a geometric average Asian option in the presence of jumps is unavailable.