Convenience Yield Research Articles

Duration-Based Valuation of Corporate Bonds

Abstract We decompose corporate bond and equity index returns into duration-matched government bond returns and the excess returns over this duration-matched counterfactual, which we term duration-adjusted returns. Compared with previously used excess return definitions (ie, returns in excess of Treasury bills), our decomposition leads to markedly different return patterns and asset pricing implications. In particular, we find that investment-grade bonds earn a small credit risk premium, comparable in magnitude to the convenience yield, and that duration adjustment resolves the CAPM’s failure to price corporate bonds. These findings highlight the importance of adjusting for nonstationary interest rate environments in asset pricing tests. (JEL G10, G12)

Convenience Yield as a Driver of r*

Convenience Yield as a Driver of r*

The convenience benefits of the shipping market: Evidence from C3 and C5 FFAs

Forward Freight Agreements (FFAs) are consequential derivatives for risk hedging in the shipping market. This paper presents the first empirical study of convenience yield in the shipping market with a sample of C3 (Tubarao to Qingdao) and C5 (Western Australia to Qingdao) FFAs from 2013 to 2023. First, single-factor and two-factor models are constructed to analyze the random behavior of freight rates in the shipping market, and the existence of convenience yield is empirically tested. The results provide evidence of the existence of convenience yield in the shipping market, with its stochastic variation being a critical factor in shaping the term structure characteristics of FFAs. Second, an ARMAX model is developed for the freight rate index, and the predictive role of the estimated convenience yield and its difference in spot freight rates is analyzed by operating the two-factor model. The findings reveal a significant predictive effect of convenience yield and its difference on spot freight rates. Last but not least, this study emphasizes the importance of convenience yield as a crucial parameter in the shipping market, particularly regarding the transportation of bulk commodities. Changes in the supply and demand of bulk commodities directly impact the fluctuations in shipping market capacity and convenience yield. This study delivers a new explanatory perspective for price formation in the shipping market and is highly valuable for risk management in this sector.

Loan-Level Disclosure and the Convenience Yield of Asset-Backed Securities

ABSTRACT We examine the impact of transparency on the convenience yield of AAA-rated asset-backed security (ABS) tranches. AAA tranches of ABS are commonly held by investors to manage financial liquidity and therefore enjoy a price premium beyond what is determined solely by the expected monetary payoff (i.e., convenience yield). The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) requires ABS issuers to provide monthly disclosures about the performance of the underlying individual loans for ABS issued after November 23, 2016 to improve transparency. We document that AAA tranches of ABS experience a significant increase in price volatility after the loan-level disclosure mandate. As a result, the use of these tranches as collateral for short-term funding and their convenience yield decrease significantly after the increased disclosure. Our collective evidence highlights an important unintended consequence of increased transparency in the ABS market; it diminishes the pledgeability of long-term safe assets. Data Availability: Data are available from the public sources cited in the text. JEL Classifications: G14; G23; M48.

Dynamic ESG Equilibrium

This paper proposes a conditional asset pricing model that integrates environmental, social, and governance (ESG) demand and supply dynamics. Shocks in the demand for sustainable investing represent a novel risk source, characterized by diminishing marginal utility and positive premium. Green assets exhibit positive exposure to ESG demand shocks, hence commanding higher premia. Conversely, time-varying convenience yield leads to lower expected returns for green assets. Moreover, ESG demand shocks have positive contemporaneous effects on unexpected returns, contributing to large positive payoffs in the green-minus-brown portfolio over extended horizons. The model predictions align closely with evidence on return spreads between green and brown assets, further reinforcing the apparent gap between realized and expected spreads. This paper was accepted by Lin William Cong, finance. Funding: Y. Liu acknowledges funding by the Research Grants Council of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China [Grant T35/710/20R]. A. Tarelli acknowledges funding by the European Union - Next Generation EU [Project Code 2022FWZ2CR]. The views and opinions expressed are only those of the authors. Supplemental Material: The online appendices and data files are available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2022.03491 .

Implied parameter estimation for jump diffusion option pricing models: Pricing accuracy and the role of loss and evaluation functions

There is extensive literature on problems involved in estimating implied parameters in the Merton Jump Diffusion model. Using simulated data, we use weighted non-linear least squares to estimate implied parameters in the four parameter jump diffusion model (JD) and in an eight parameter jump diffusion model with convenience yield (JDC). We find reliable and accurate implied parameter estimates for the JD model but biased and unreliable estimates for some parameters in the JDC model. However, for both models we estimate accurate option prices, usually within several basis points. We also use Bitcoin real data to estimate parameters and test the out-of-sample performance of the JDC model.

The convenience yield under commodity financialization

AbstractA number of papers have dealt with commodity financialization finding strong evidence for its existence and its effect on commodity prices and volatility. We chose convenience yield (CY) to study the effect of commodity financialization based on the theory of storage and on the argument that CY resembles a call option. Using quarterly data in the period 1995–2018, on soybeans stocks, cash and futures prices, a dynamic Autoregressive Distributed Lag with Exogenous model is estimated to measure the effects of independent variables from both the financial and commodity markets on CY. The evidence reveals that financial markets volatility along macroeconomic global variables affect soybeans CY giving support to the existence of commodity financialization. Besides, we find a statistically significant and negative relation between volatility index and CY. Support for this evidence rests on the theory of storage, Real Option Analysis, and behavioral finance.

The Drivers of r*: Accounting for Treasuries' Convenience Yield

The Drivers of r*: Accounting for Treasuries' Convenience Yield

Equilibrium pricing of European crude oil options with stochastic behaviour and jump risks

In this paper, we investigate the pricing of European crude oil options under nonlinear dynamics with stochastic behaviour and jump risks, incorporating the features of arising convenience yield of crude oil and potential extreme fluctuation in the dynamics of crude oil prices. We present a closed-form solution to European crude oil option prices under an incomplete market setting, after deriving the pricing kernel with the equilibrium method and determining the risk neutral dynamics of crude oil prices. We extend our model to a mean-reverting stochastic volatility case, which also admits an analytical formula for the equilibrium price of European crude-oil options. Finally, our model is shown to be consistent with a number of interesting facts documented in the recent literature.

Valuation of Commodity-Linked Bond with Stochastic Convenience Yield, Stochastic Volatility, and Credit Risk in an Intensity-Based Model

In this study, we consider an intensity-based model for pricing a commodity-linked bond with credit risk. Recently, the pricing of a commodity-linked bond with credit risk under the structural model has been studied. We extend the result using an intensity-based model, stochastic volatility model, and stochastic convenience yield model. In the intensity-based model, the credit event by the counterparty occurs at the time of first jump in a stochastic Poisson process, in which intensity is modeled as the sum of two CIR prosesses. We assume that the underlying asset follows the stochastic volatility and convenience yield models. Using the measure change technique, we explicitly derive the commodity-linked bond pricing formula in the proposed model. As a result, we provide the explicit solution for the price of the commodity-linked bond with stochastic convenience yield, stochastic volatility, and credit risk as single integrations. In addition, we present several examples to demonstrate the effects of significant parameters on the value of commodity-linked bond using numerical integration. In particular, examples are provided, focusing on the behavior of prices based on effects of recovery rate.

Flight to Safety or Liquidity? Dissecting Liquidity Shortages in the Financial Crisis

AbstractWe differentiate the liquidity and the quality of private assets in a tractable incomplete‐market model with heterogeneous agents. The model decomposes the convenience yield of government bonds into a “liquidity premium” (flight to liquidity) and a “safety premium” (flight to quality) over the business cycle. When calibrated to match the U.S. aggregate output fluctuations and bond premiums, the model reveals that a sharp reduction in the quality, instead of the liquidity, of private assets was the culprit of the recent financial crisis, consistent with the perception that it was the subprime‐mortgage problem that triggered the Great Recession. Since the provision of public liquidity endogenously affects the provision of private liquidity, our model indicates that excessive injection of public liquidity during a financial crisis can be welfare reducing under either conventional or unconventional policies. In particular, too much intervention for too long can depress capital investment.

What can we learn from the convenience yield of Bitcoin? Evidence from the COVID-19 crisis

In this study, we employ the cost of carrying model to estimate the convenience yields of gold and bitcoin. Using the COVID-19 crisis as a demand shock, we show that the convenience yield of bitcoin decreases, but the convenience yield of gold increases during the pandemic. We further document an inverse relationship between bitcoin user adoption and convenience yield. Such relationship intensifies during the COVID-19 crisis and is mainly driven by the unexpected component of bitcoin's unique active addresses. Our overall findings indicate that gold rather than bitcoin attracts flight-to-safety investors in the pandemic. We provide supporting evidence for the decrease in bitcoin convenience yield, which can be explained by the sudden increase in active trading addresses that short-term speculators own most.

Commodity momentum and reversal: Do they exist, and if so, why?

AbstractQuestions as to why differences in momentum and reversal patterns seem to emerge in commodity futures compared with spot markets, and how these patterns can be explained, remain unanswered. To investigate these questions, I examine 23 commodities over a period of 60 years. I first show that including the net convenience yield in the definition of commodity spot returns reconciles the differences in the results for commodity spot and futures markets. Both commodity futures and spot markets exhibit quantitatively consistent momentum and reversal effects. An initial momentum effect is followed by a reversal effect and then another momentum effect. These observed patterns in commodities can be jointly explained by a combination of traditional asset pricing factors and a basis factor related to the net convenience yield.

Convenience yield and real exchange rate dynamics: A present‐value interpretation

AbstractIn this paper, we empirically investigate the relationship between the convenience yield of government bonds and the real exchange rates using monthly data from 1999 to 2018. We extend the conventional models, based on the present‐value relationship between the real exchange rate and economic fundamentals, while explicitly considering the role of the convenience yield. Empirical results suggest that our present‐value models can capture the dynamic properties of the real exchange rate documented in the literature, including high persistence, excess volatility and excess co‐movement compared with real interest rate differentials. We also find that the sum of expected convenience yields significantly drives real exchange rate movements. Moreover, we find that foreign exchange swap market friction also plays a role in explaining real exchange rates. Finally, we find that monetary policy at the zero lower bound may be essential in real exchange rate modelling.

Evaluating robust determinants of the WTI/Brent oil price differential: A dynamic model averaging analysis

AbstractWe investigate the robust determinants of the West Texas Intermediate/Brent oil price differential by employing a time‐varying framework. To achieve this, a dynamic model averaging framework is used, considering monthly data over the period 1994:1–2021:3. Our results suggest that the convenience yield, the global economic activity index, and the government bond yields act as the main factors that exercise a persistent and significant impact, for the largest part of the study period, although at different magnitude. More importantly, though, we show that at different time periods there are additional factors that exercise a significant impact on the oil price differential, such as refining constraints, stock market volatility, trading volume, and geopolitical risk. Thus, unless a dynamic modeling framework is employed, the full spectrum of the related effects cannot be revealed. A series of tests confirm the robustness of our findings. Several policy implications of these results are also discussed.

Convenience yield risk

We develop a framework to quantify the convenience yield risk (CYR) inherent to each commodity futures market. Implementing our approach, we document that our novel CYR measure is informative about future commodity returns. In panel regressions, the CYR predicts future returns with a positive sign. Economically, a strategy that opens long positions in commodity markets with a higher than median CYR signal and sells the remaining commodities yields an average return of 6.93% per year. The performance of the CYR strategy cannot be explained by exposure to existing commodity strategies or other variables that capture changes in the investment opportunity set.

Random sources correlations and carbon futures pricing

For a long time, the correlation between random sources has never been considered in carbon futures pricing, which virtually exists. We document the presence of high correlation between variations in convenience yields of carbon futures with different maturities, whose essence is correlation between random sources. Correlation of random sources arises from the long coverage of convenience yield of carbon emission spot and the complementarity in expiration between carbon futures with different maturities. Since if random sources are correlated will significantly affect the dynamics of convenience yield and finally affect futures prices, we introduce quantum field method to account for the impact of this correlation on futures prices, and proposes the correlation between random sources extended HJM convenience yield model (CRS-HJM-CYM). Empirical results indicate CRS-HJM-CYM performs better than traditional model owing to the role of correlation, which means the correlation between random sources is a pivotal factor in carbon futures pricing.

Pricing Asian options with stochastic convenience yield and jumps

We price Asian options on commodity futures contracts in the presence of stochastic convenience yield, stochastic interest rates and jumps in the commodity spot price. In the case of no jumps, we obtain a closed-form solution for a geometric average Asian option. This analytic result enables us to employ this option as a suitable control variate when pricing the corresponding arithmetic average Asian option. Discussion of further applications and comparative statics are presented. To cover the case with jumps, we condition on the jump times first and then average over the sequences of jump times.

Commodity Asian option pricing and simulation in a 4-factor model with jump clusters

Mean reversion, stochastic volatility, convenience yield and presence of jump clustering are well documented salient features of commodity markets, where Asian options are very popular. We propose a model which takes into account all these stylized features. We first state our model under the historical measure, then, after introducing a structure preserving change of measure, we provide a risk-neutral version of the same model and we show how to price geometric and arithmetic Asian options. To this end, we derive semi-closed formulas for the geometric Asian options price and develop a computationally efficient simulation scheme for the price process, allowing to price the arithmetic counterparts using control variate technique. Finally, we propose a simple econometric experiment to document presence of jump clusters in commodity prices and evaluate the performances of the proposed simulation scheme on some parameter sets calibrated on real data.

Theory of storage implications in the European natural gas market

The theory of storage stands that futures prices should be equal to the spot price plus the interest forgone in storing the commodity and the warehousing costs minus the convenience yield on the inventory. In this paper, we test several implications of the theory of storage on the pricing of United Kingdom natural gas futures. We obtain partial evidence for the theory of storage as a complete explanation of the pricing of this futures contract. Explicitly, (i) we obtain evidence to explain convenience yield seasonality with spot price volatility, unexpected demand shocks when supply is tight, inventory variations, and trading activity in the futures markets; (ii) we obtain indirect evidence for the theory of storage in accepting the Samuelson hypothesis; (iii) weak although significant influence of storage levels in determining the basis is obtained; (iv) we find weak evidence for the inventory influence of futures volatility; and (v) finally, the slope of the convenience yield structure is found to respond to inventory changes and trading activity in the futures markets that anticipates inventory scarcity. All in all, we can conclude that our evidence for the theory of storage in this market is strong but cannot completely explain futures pricing for natural gas.