Convectively Coupled Kelvin Waves Research Articles

Aircraft observations in a tropical supercluster over the equatorial Indian Ocean during MISO-BOB field campaign

The Monsoon Intra-Seasonal Oscillations in the Bay of Bengal (MISO-BOB) field campaign was conducted in the Indian Ocean during the 2018 and 2019 summer monsoon seasons. WC-130J aircraft of the 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron of the US Air Force participated in the campaign in June 2018. The dropsonde observations across a tropical supercluster showed zonal wind variations in association with the structure of the convectively coupled Kelvin wave (CCKW). Within the supercluster, easterlies (westerlies) were observed in the upper (lower) troposphere; this transformation occurred just below the 0∘\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$^{\\circ }$$\\end{document} C level. The cold pool had an easterly component throughout, and it was coldest (by 2.5∘\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$^{\\circ }$$\\end{document} C) at the center of the supercluster, deepest (∼\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$\\sim$$\\end{document}1000m\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$1000\\,\\hbox {m}$$\\end{document}) at its rear/western end, and shallowest (∼\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$\\sim$$\\end{document} 300 m) at the front/eastern end. The level of free convection (LFC) at the front end was at 897m\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$897\\,\\hbox {m}$$\\end{document} altitude. At the eastern flank of the supercluster, zonal convergence in the lower troposphere occurred between 500-1500 m levels above the surface between the westerlies within the supercluster and opposing ambient easterlies. Thus, the uplifting of conditionally unstable air parcels above LFC to the east of the supercluster was likely to occur due to this convergence rather than the cold pool influence. Conversely, the western flank of the supercluster had low-level zonal divergence. These observations support the notion of ‘self-similarity’ among the mesoscale convective systems and large-scale waves.

Convectively Coupled Kelvin Waves and Tropical Cyclogenesis: Connections through Convection and Moisture

Abstract Recent research has demonstrated a relationship between convectively coupled Kelvin waves (CCKWs) and tropical cyclogenesis, likely due to the influence of CCKWs on the large-scale environment. However, it remains unclear which environmental factors are most important and how they connect to TC genesis processes. Using a 39-yr database of African easterly waves (AEWs) to create composites of reanalysis and satellite data, it is shown that genesis may be facilitated by CCKW-driven modifications to convection and moisture. First, stand-alone composites of genesis demonstrate the significant role of environmental preconditioning and convective aggregation. A moist static energy variance budget indicates that convective aggregation during genesis is dominated by feedbacks between convection and longwave radiation. These processes begin over two days prior to genesis, supporting previous observational work. Shifting attention to CCKWs, up to 76% of developing AEWs encounter at least one CCKW in their lifetime. An increase in genesis events following convectively active CCKW phases is found, corroborating earlier studies. A decrease in genesis events following convectively suppressed phases is also identified. Using CCKW-centered composites, we show that the convectively active CCKW phases enhance convection and moisture content in the vicinity of AEWs prior to genesis. Furthermore, enhanced convective activity is the main discriminator between AEW–CCKW interactions that result in genesis versus those that do not. This analysis suggests that CCKWs may influence genesis through environmental preconditioning and radiative–convective feedbacks, among other factors. A secondary finding is that AEW attributes as far east as central Africa may be predictive of downstream genesis. Significance Statement The purpose of this work is to investigate how one type of atmospheric wave, known as convectively coupled Kelvin waves (CCKWs), impacts the formation (“genesis”) of tropical cyclones. Forecasting of genesis remains a significant challenge, so identifying how CCKWs influence this process could help improve forecasts and give communities greater lead times. Our results show that CCKWs could temporarily make genesis more likely by increasing atmospheric moisture content and convective activity. While not all CCKWs lead to genesis, those that do are associated with a particularly strong increase in convection. This provides a potential tool for forecasters monitoring CCKWs and TC genesis in real time and motivates follow-up work on this topic in numerical models.

Representation of the Convectively Coupled Kelvin Waves in Modern Reanalysis Products

Abstract This study aims to deepen our understanding of the destabilization mechanisms and the mean-state modulation of the convectively coupled Kelvin waves (CCKWs) while testing simple models for CCKWs. We examine CCKW precipitation, vertical structure, and energetics in four modern reanalyses: the fifth version of ECMWF Reanalysis (ERA5), NASA Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2), the second version of the NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), and the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55). The CCKW precipitation signal strength in the wavenumber–frequency domain and the geographical distribution of CCKW precipitation variability are reasonably represented in all reanalyses, although they commonly underestimate the amplitude of CCKW precipitation. Despite considerable interreanalysis differences in the vertical structure of temperature and diabatic heating anomalies, the eddy available potential energy (EAPE) generation within the CCKWs is found to be associated with the second baroclinic mode whereas the first baroclinic mode damps CCKW EAPE in three out of four reanalyses. Geographically, strong CCKW activity occurs in the areas of high mean-state sea surface temperature (SST), where the second mode EAPE generation is higher, mainly due to a stronger stratiform heating and a tighter wave–convection coupling. Our results are supportive of the simple models for CCKWs in which CCKWs are destabilized within the second baroclinic mode component.

The Influence of Convectively Coupled Kelvin Waves on African Easterly Waves in a Wave-Following Framework

Abstract While considerable attention has been given to how convectively coupled Kelvin waves (CCKWs) influence the genesis of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the Atlantic Ocean, less attention has been given to their direct influence on African easterly waves (AEWs). This study builds a climatology of AEW and CCKW passages from 1981 to 2019 using an AEW-following framework. Vertical and horizontal composites of these passages are developed and divided into categories based on AEW position and CCKW strength. Many of the relationships that have previously been found for TC genesis also hold true for non-developing AEWs. This includes an increase in convective coverage surrounding the AEW center in phase with the convectively enhanced (“active”) CCKW crest, as well as a buildup of relative vorticity from the lower to upper troposphere following this active crest. Additionally, a new finding is that CCKWs induce specific humidity anomalies around AEWs that are qualitatively similar to those of relative vorticity. These modifications to specific humidity are more pronounced when AEWs are at lower latitudes and interacting with stronger CCKWs. While the influence of CCKWs on AEWs is mostly transient and short lived, CCKWs do modify the AEW propagation speed and westward-filtered relative vorticity, indicating that they may have some longer-term influences on the AEW life cycle. Overall, this analysis provides a more comprehensive view of the AEW–CCKW relationship than has previously been established, and supports assertions by previous studies that CCKW-associated convection, specific humidity, and vorticity may modify the favorability of AEWs to TC genesis over the Atlantic.

Modulation of the Convectively Coupled Kelvin Waves by the MJO over different domains

Abstract In this study we have examined the modulation of convectively coupled Kelvin waves (CCKWs) by different Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) states over the Indian, Pacific and Atlantic Ocean domains. Convectively active CCKW events associated with active MJO convection, suppressed MJO convection, and quiescent MJO states were derived using wavenumber-frequency filtered outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) indices over the three domains. Composite analysis of CCKW events during different MJO states indicate that the amplitude and phase speed of CCKW are modulated by the MJO state. CCKW amplitude is stronger (weaker), and it propagates relatively slower (faster) and more (less) eastward when the MJO amplitude is strong (weak). The phase speed of CCKW is much slower over the Indian Ocean domain, while it propagates relatively faster over the Atlantic Ocean domain. It is hypothesized that the observed difference in CCKW phase speeds is related to the Gross Moist Stability (GMS). The clear linear relationship observed between GMS and CCKW phase speeds over the different domains, during different MJO states and the observed differences in CCKW vertical structures support this hypothesis. It is found that the CCKW exhibits a baroclinic vertical structure over the Indian and Pacific Ocean domains and a barotropic vertical structure over the Atlantic Ocean. Planetary-scale convection associated with the MJO reduces the static stability allowing for baroclinic modes to prevail, which in turn reduces the GMS and the effective equivalent depth, eventually slowing down the CCKW phase propagation. The results suggest that CCKW may be treated as a mixed-moisture mode.

The Influence of Convectively Coupled Kelvin Waves on Atlantic Niños

AbstractAtlantic Niños dominate the equatorial Atlantic variability during boreal summer (June–August). The coupled ocean‐atmosphere processes associated with Atlantic Niños have been extensively documented. However, the role of atmospheric convectively coupled Kelvin waves (CCKWs), which are uncorrelated to those previously identified processes, in triggering Atlantic Niños has been unclear. Here we identify CCKWs using Wheeler‐Kiladis filtering based on 10°S–10°N averaged daily outgoing longwave radiation. CCKWs propagate eastward from South America and induce surface zonal wind anomalies over the equatorial Atlantic Ocean. Strong anomalous CCKWs during spring (March–May) and their associated surface westerly wind anomalies can trigger downwelling oceanic Kelvin waves that change the east–west slope of the thermocline, consequently leading to Atlantic Niño. A causal effect network reveals that interannual sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Atlantic Niño Index area and CCKWs, both in spring, are uncorrelated, but both appear to influence SST anomalies over the Atlantic Niño Index area in summer. The CCKWs are also uncorrelated to other coupled ocean‐atmosphere sources, such as El Niño–Southern Oscillation and Atlantic Meridional Mode. Among a total of 15 Atlantic Niño/Niña events identified for the period of 1980–2017, two‐thirds of the events are linked to CCKWs. In particular, three Atlantic Niña events (1982, 1994, and 2005) are mainly triggered by CCKWs, under unfavorable SST preconditions. Thus, CCKWs in spring, due to atmospheric internal variability, provide another mechanism for triggering Atlantic Niños and probably weaken their predictability.

Linking Equatorial African Precipitation to Kelvin Wave Processes in the CP4-Africa Convection-Permitting Regional Climate Simulation

Abstract Observational studies have shown the link between convectively coupled Kelvin waves (CCKWs) and eastward-propagating rainfall anomalies. We explore the mechanisms in which CCKWs modulate the propagation of precipitation from west to east over equatorial Africa. We examine a multiyear state-of-the-art Africa-wide climate simulation from a convection-permitting model (CP4A) along with a parameterized global driving-model simulation (G25) and evaluate both against observations (TRMM) and ERA-Interim (ERA-I), with a focus on precipitation and Kelvin wave activity. We show that the two important related processes through which CCKWs influence the propagation of convection and precipitation from west to east across equatorial Africa are 1) low-level westerly wind anomalies that lead to increased low-level convergence, and 2) westerly moisture flux anomalies that amplify the lower- to midtropospheric specific humidity. We identify Kelvin wave activity using zonal wind and geopotential height. Using lagged composite analysis, we show that modeled precipitation over equatorial Africa can capture the eastward-propagating precipitation signal that is associated with CCKWs. Composite analysis on strong (high-amplitude) CCKWs shows that both CP4A and G25 capture the connection between the eastward-propagating precipitation anomalies and CCKWs. In comparison to TRMM, however, the precipitation signal is weaker in G25, while CP4A has a more realistic signal. Results show that both CP4A and G25 generally simulate the key horizontal structure of CCKWs, with anomalous low-level westerlies in phase with positive precipitation anomalies. These findings suggest that for operational forecasting, it is important to monitor the day-to-day Kelvin wave activity across equatorial Africa.

Convectively Coupled Kelvin Waves Over Tropical South America

AbstractRainfall over tropical South America is known to be modulated by convectively coupled Kelvin waves (CCKWs). In this work, the origin and dynamical features of South American Kelvin waves are revisited using satellite-observed brightness temperature, radiosonde, and reanalysis datasets. Two main types of CCKWs over the Amazon are considered: Kelvin waves with a Pacific precursor, and Kelvin waves with a precursor originating over South America. Amazonian CCKW’s associated with a preexisting Kelvin convection in the eastern Pacific account for about 35% of the total events. The cases with South American precursors are associated with either pressure surges in the western Amazon from extratropical wave train activity, responsible for 40% of the total events, or “in situ” convection that locally excites CCKWs, accounting for the remaining 25%. The analysis also suggests that CCKWs associated with different precursors are sensitive to Pacific sea surface temperature. Kelvin wave events with a Pacific precursor are more common during ENSO warm events, while Kelvin waves with extratropical South American precursors show stronger activity during La Niña events. This study also explores other triggering mechanisms of CCKWs over the Amazon. These mechanisms are associated with: 1) extratropical Rossby wave trains not necessarily of extratropical South American origin; 2) CCKWs initiated in response to the presence of the southern and/or double Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in the Eastern Pacific Ocean; 3) and possible interaction between CCKWs and other equatorial waves in the Amazon.

Equatorial Waves Triggering Extreme Rainfall and Floods in Southwest Sulawesi, Indonesia

AbstractOn the basis of detailed analysis of a case study and long-term climatology, it is shown that equatorial waves and their interactions serve as precursors for extreme rain and flood events in the central Maritime Continent region of southwest Sulawesi, Indonesia. Meteorological conditions on 22 January 2019 leading to heavy rainfall and devastating flooding in this area are studied. It is shown that a convectively coupled Kelvin wave (CCKW) and a convectively coupled equatorial Rossby wave (CCERW) embedded within the larger-scale envelope of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) enhanced convective phase, contributed to the onset of a mesoscale convective system that developed over the Java Sea. Low-level convergence from the CCKW forced mesoscale convective organization and orographic ascent of moist air over the slopes of southwest Sulawesi. Climatological analysis shows that 92% of December–February floods and 76% of extreme rain events in this region were immediately preceded by positive low-level westerly wind anomalies. It is estimated that both CCKWs and CCERWs propagating over Sulawesi double the chance of floods and extreme rain event development, while the probability of such hazardous events occurring during their combined activity is 8 times greater than on a random day. While the MJO is a key component shaping tropical atmospheric variability, it is shown that its usefulness as a single factor for extreme weather-driven hazard prediction is limited.

The observed synoptic scale precipitation relationship between Western Equatorial Africa and Eastern Equatorial Africa

AbstractAn improvement to subseasonal (i.e., days to weeks) rainfall prediction across Equatorial Africa is an important area of current research. This is because most countries in this region are highly dependent on rain‐fed agriculture, and so millions of livelihoods are at risk in the event of an unexpected poor harvest. This study examines 16 years of daily precipitation anomalies to investigate the relationship in precipitation between Western Equatorial Africa (WEA) and Eastern Equatorial Africa (EEA). Using lead/lag correlation and spatio‐temporal correlation patterns over various sub‐regions, a synoptic‐scale relationship in precipitation is presented between WEA and EEA, in which precipitation over EEA lags precipitation over WEA by 1–2 days. In addition, central WEA and sub‐regions in South Sudan display a synoptic‐timescale precipitation contrast, suggesting a weak precipitation dipole. Consistent with the known heterogeneity characteristic of Equatorial Africa's precipitation, our findings suggest that the 1–2 days precipitation relationship is dependent upon the sub‐region under investigation. Furthermore, our results indicate a coherent synoptic‐timescale eastward/northeastward propagating signal with a speed of approximately 12 m/s. Composite and correlation analyses of precipitation anomalies and a novel equatorial wave dataset show an apparent connection between eastward/northeastward propagating wet anomalies and Kelvin wave lower‐tropospheric convergence. This suggests that Convectively Coupled Kelvin Waves (CCKWs) play a role in modulating the 1–2 days convection and precipitation propagation between WEA and EEA. These results imply that monitoring the propagation characteristics of CCKWs may be important in synoptic‐timescale forecasting over Equatorial Africa.

Regional Differences in the Response of Rainfall to Convectively Coupled Kelvin Waves over Tropical Africa

AbstractThe representation of convection remains one of the most important sources of bias in global models, and evaluation methods are needed that show that models provide the correct mean state and variability, both for the correct reasons. Here we develop a novel approach for evaluating rainfall variability due to convectively coupled Kelvin waves (CCKWs) in this region. A phase cycle was defined for the CCKW cycle in OLR and used to composite rainfall anomalies. We characterize the observed (TRMM) rainfall response to CCKWs over tropical Africa in April and evaluate the performance of regional climate model (RCM) simulations: a parameterized convection simulation (P25) and the first pan-Africa convection-permitting simulation (CP4). TRMM mean rainfall is enhanced and suppressed by CCKW activity, and the occurrence of extreme rainfall and dry days is coupled with CCKW activity. Focusing on regional differences, we show for the first time that there is a dipole between West Africa and the Gulf of Guinea involving onshore/offshore shifts in rainfall, and the transition to enhanced rainfall over west equatorial Africa occurs one phase before the transition over east equatorial Africa. The global model used to drive the RCMs simulated CCKWs with mean amplitudes of 75%–82% of observations. The RCMs simulated coherent responses to the CCKWs and captured the large-scale spatial patterns and phase relationships in rainfall although the simulated rainfall response is weaker than observations and there are regional biases that are bigger away from the equator. P25 produced a closer match to TRMM mean rainfall anomalies than CP4 although the response in dry days was more closely simulated by CP4.

Upscale Impact of Mesoscale Disturbances of Tropical Convection on Convectively Coupled Kelvin Waves

Tropical convection associated with convectively coupled Kelvin waves (CCKWs) is typically organized by an eastward-moving synoptic-scale convective envelope with numerous embedded westward-moving mesoscale disturbances. Such a multiscale structure of tropical convection is a challenge for present-day cloud-resolving simulations and its representation in global climate models. It is of central importance to assess the upscale impact of mesoscale disturbances on CCKWs as mesoscale disturbances propagate at various tilt angles and speeds. Besides, it is still poorly understood whether the front-to-rear-tilted vertical structure of CCKWs can be induced by the upscale impact of mesoscale disturbances in the presence of upright mean heating. Here, a simple multiscale model is used to capture this multiscale structure, where mesoscale fluctuations are directly driven by mesoscale heating and synoptic-scale circulation is forced by mean heating and eddy transfer of momentum and temperature. The results show that the upscale impact of mesoscale disturbances that propagate at tilt angles of 110°–250° induces negative lower-tropospheric potential temperature anomalies in the leading edge, providing favorable conditions for shallow convection in a moist environment, while the remaining tilt-angle cases have opposite effects. Even in the presence of upright mean heating, the front-to-rear-tilted synoptic-scale circulation can still be induced by eddy terms at tilt angles of 120°–240°. In the case with fast-propagating mesoscale heating, positive potential temperature anomalies are induced in the lower troposphere, suppressing convection in a moist environment. This simple model also reproduces convective momentum transport and CCKWs in agreement with results from a recent cloud-resolving simulation.

Convectively coupled Kelvin waves in aquachannel simulations: 2. Life cycle and dynamical‐convective coupling

AbstractThis second part of a two‐part study uses Weather Research and Forecasting simulations with aquachannel and aquapatch domains to investigate the time evolution of convectively coupled Kelvin waves (CCKWs). Power spectra, filtering, and compositing are combined with object‐tracking methods to assess the structure and phase speed propagation of CCKWs during their strengthening, mature, and decaying phases. In this regard, we introduce an innovative approach to more closely investigate the wave (Kelvin) versus entity (super cloud cluster or “SCC”) dualism. In general, the composite CCKW structures represent a dynamical response to the organized convective activity. However, pressure and thermodynamic fields in the boundary layer behave differently. Further analysis of the time evolution of pressure and low‐level moist static energy finds that these fields propagate eastward as a “moist” Kelvin wave (MKW), faster than the envelope of organized convection or SCC. When the separation is sufficiently large the SCC dissipates, and a new SCC generates to the east, in the region of strongest negative pressure perturbations. We revisit the concept itself of the “coupling” between convection and dynamics, and we also propose a conceptual model for CCKWs, with a clear distinction between the SCC and the MKW components.

Twin tropical cyclones in the Indian Ocean: the role of equatorial waves

This study explores the background atmospheric conditions that led to the development of recent two sets of twin tropical cyclones in the Indian Ocean. One set of twins formed in late December 2011 (“pair A”) and other in May 2013 (“pair B”). An extensive area of active convection prevailing over wide-equatorial region and low-level westerly wind over near-equatorial region is major precursors to the two cases of twins. Convection and accompanying westerlies slowly strengthen, and the two sets of twins tend to emerge within it. The atmospheric equatorial convectively coupled Kelvin wave (CCKW) and convectively coupled equatorial Rossby (CCER) wave played key role in the formation of the two twins’ events. Wave-enhanced equatorial convection and low-level westerly anomalies produced by the combination of CCKW and CCER wave are crucial for the development of “pair A” twins. CCKW prior to “pair B” twins produced convection and westerly anomalies over equatorial region. The equatorial westerlies are further modulated by CCER wave favoring twins of “pair B.” Moreover, convection reinforced by CCER wave in OLR aided occurrence of Northern Hemispheric cyclone of “pair A” and Southern Hemispheric cyclone of “pair B.” While the CCKW and CCER wave appear to be associated with the formation of the two twin cyclone cases, more thorough understanding of the mechanisms involved needs considerable attention in forthcoming research.

Roles of convective heating and boundary-layer moisture asymmetry in slowing down the convectively coupled Kelvin waves

Mechanisms for an in-phase relationship between convection and low-level zonal wind and the slow propagation of the convectively coupled Kelvin wave (CCKW) are investigated by analyzing satellite-based brightness temperature and reanalysis data and by constructing a simple theoretical model. Observational data analysis reveals an eastward shift of the low-level convergence and moisture relative to the CCKW convective center. The composite vertical structures show that the low-level convergence lies in the planetary boundary layer (PBL) (below 800 hPa), and is induced by the pressure trough above the top of PBL through an Ekman-pumping process. A traditional view of a slower eastward propagation speed compared to the dry Kelvin waves is attributed to the reduction of atmospheric static stability in mid-troposphere due to the convective heating effect. The authors’ quantitative assessment of the heating effect shows that this effect alone cannot explain the observed CCKW phase speed. We hypothesize that additional slowing process arises from the effect of zonally asymmetric PBL moisture. A simple theoretical model is constructed to understand the relative role of the heating induced effective static stability effect and the PBL moisture effect. The result demonstrates the important role of the both effects. Thus, PBL-free atmosphere interaction is important in explaining the observed structure and propagation of CCKW.

Convectively coupled Kelvin waves in CMIP5 coupled climate models

This study provided a quantitative evaluation of convectively coupled Kelvin waves (CCKWs) over the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean simulated by 20 coupled climate models that participated in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5. The two leading empirical orthogonal function (EOF) modes of filtered daily precipitation anomalies are used to represent the eastward propagating CCKWs in both observations and simulations. The eigenvectors and eigenvalues of the EOF modes represent the spatial patterns and intensity of CCKWs respectively, and the lead–lag relationship between the two EOF principle components describe the phase propagation of CCKWs. A non-dimensional metric was designed in consideration of all the three factors (i.e., pattern, amplitude and phase propagation) for evaluation. The relative rankings of the models based on the skill scores calculated by the metric are conducted for the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean, respectively. Two models (NorESM1-M and MPI-ESM-LR) are ranked among the best 20 % for both the regions. Three models (inmcm4, MRI-CGCM3 and HadGEM2-ES) are ranked among the worst 20 % for both the regions. While the observed CCKW amplitude is greater north of the equator in the Pacific, some models overestimate the CCKW ampliutde in the Southern Hemisphere. This bias is related to the mean state precipitation bias along the south Pacific convergence zone.

On mechanisms that determine synoptic time scale convection over East Africa

ABSTRACTThis study explores potential mechanisms to explain the marked synoptic scale variability in convection seen over East Africa during the July–September season. Regression composites based on analysis of 22 years of brightness temperature and reanalysis datasets highlights a complicated evolution for this synoptic convection. Active convection in the region is typically preceded by a coherent eastward moving convective signal that is followed by a period with a prominent westward moving convective signal away from the region. Results suggest that this sequence is associated with eastward propagation of convectively coupled Kelvin waves (CCKWs) that subsequently trigger westward‐moving African easterly waves (EWs). Results also indicate that synoptic convection in the East African region is impacted by westward moving upper tropospheric EWs originating on the tropical easterly jet in the South Asian region. These upper EWs propagate through East Africa with about a 4‐day period, consistent with the synoptic convection variability observed over East Africa. Consistent with local forecaster experience, analysis of the regional spatial patterns of convection and associated moisture flux convergence show that a coherent signal propagates northeastwards from the equatorial Congo region to East Africa on synoptic timescales. The evolution resembles the CCKW‐associated signal suggesting that CCKWs contribute to this synoptic variability.

INITIATION MECHANISMS FOR A SUCCESSIVE MJO EVENT AND A PRIMARY MJO EVENT DURING BOREAL WINTER OF 2000-2001

Observed outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and ERA-Interim reanalysis data were analyzed to reveal the initiation processes associated with a successive and a primary MJO event during 2000-2001. It was found that the initiation of the successive event was caused by anomalous ascending motion induced by low-level horizontal temperature advection. The anomalous ascending motion, together with horizontal moisture advection, moistened lower troposphere and led to an unstable stratification and triggered convection. The initiation of the primary MJO event, on the other hand, was caused by the accumulation of anomalous moisture associated with three low-frequency modes, a convectively coupled Kelvin wave (CCKW), an westward-propagating equatorial Rossby wave (ER) and a weak planetary-scale MJO mode. It is the merging of the low-level specific humidity anomalies of the three modes that led to the rapid setup of large-scale convectively unstable stratification and favored the development of the eastward-propagating planetary-scale MJO mode.

Convectively Coupled Kelvin Waves: From Linear Theory to Global Models

Abstract The authors analyze composite structures of tropical convectively coupled Kelvin waves (CCKWs) in terms of the theory of Raymond and Fuchs using radiosonde data, 3D analysis and reanalysis model output, and annual integrations with the ECMWF model on the full planet and on an aquaplanet. Precipitation anomalies are estimated using the NOAA interpolated OLR and TRMM 3B42 datasets, as well as using model OLR and rainfall diagnostics. Derived variables from these datasets are used to examine assumptions of the theory. Large-scale characteristics of wave phenomena are robust in all datasets and models where Kelvin wave variance is large. Indices from the theory representing column moisture and convective inhibition are also robust. The results suggest that the CCKW is highly dependent on convective inhibition, while column moisture does not play an important role.

Mechanisms controlling the onset of simulated convectively coupled Kelvin waves

Convectively coupled Kelvin waves (CCKW) are analysed using a cloud-resolving model to gain a better understanding of the mechanisms that initiate and drive these waves. We compare the modelled precipitation and vertical structure of a convectively coupled Kelvin wave to the mechanisms that control precipitation over warm tropical oceans: convective inhibition (CIN), saturation fraction, atmospheric stability and surface moist entropy fluxes. Our results show that the primary onset mechanism for precipitation associated with CCKW is CIN associated with a decrease in the threshold moist entropy. Saturation fraction and atmospheric instability exhibit a time lag in comparison with the rainfall evolution and are, therefore, not primary controls in the onset of these waves. The modelled CCKW evolve by starting with congestus convection, develop into deep convection and decay with the stratiform convection. The results from the presented model agree with observations and linearised models.