Convective Scale Research Articles

Survey of data assimilation methods for convective‐scale numerical weather prediction at operational centres

Data assimilation (DA) methods for convective‐scale numerical weather prediction at operational centres are surveyed. The operational methods include variational methods (3D‐Var and 4D‐Var), ensemble methods (LETKF) and hybrids between variational and ensemble methods (3DEnVar and 4DEnVar). At several operational centres, other assimilation algorithms, like latent heat nudging, are additionally applied to improve the model initial state, with emphasis on convective scales. It is demonstrated that the quality of forecasts based on initial data from convective‐scale DA is significantly better than the quality of forecasts from simple downscaling of larger‐scale initial data. However, the duration of positive impact depends on the weather situation, the size of the computational domain and the data that are assimilated. Furthermore it is shown that more advanced methods applied at convective scales provide improvements over simpler methods. This motivates continued research and development in convective‐scale DA.Challenges in research and development for improvements of convective‐scale DA are also reviewed and discussed. The difficulty of handling the wide range of spatial and temporal scales makes development of multi‐scale assimilation methods and space–time covariance localization techniques important. Improved utilization of observations is also important. In order to extract more information from existing observing systems of convective‐scale phenomena (e.g. weather radar data and satellite image data), it is necessary to provide improved statistical descriptions of the observation errors associated with these observations.

Crustal-scale convection and diapiric upwelling of a partially molten orogenic root (Naxos dome, Greece)

The goal of this paper is to use the structural, metamorphic and geochronological record from the migmatitic core of the Naxos dome (Greece) and its associated subdomes to address the internal dynamics of a partially molten orogenic root. U-Pb ages from ca. 24 to 16 Ma and textures of zircon in the migmatites suggest successive dissolution and precipitation cycles with a period of 1 to 2 Ma, interpreted as the timescale of convective instabilities in a ca. 20 km thick partially molten layer. Dimensional analysis indicates that convection of this root requires a viscosity lower than 1018 Pa·s, consistent with viscosity values expected for partially molten felsic rocks. Structural analysis and U-Pb geochronology of deformed granitic dikes rooting in the migmatites record the subsequent development of the Naxos dome by diapirism from ca. 16 to 13 Ma. The size of the first order migmatite dome on Naxos (5 × 12 km) requires that the unstable layer at the onset of diapirism was 5 to 10 km thick and presented a moderate viscosity contrast with its envelope. From this analysis we propose that the Naxos migmatite dome documents a two stage dynamic evolution for the partially molten root of the Aegean belt characterized by (1) crustal scale convection for at least 8 Ma and (2) diapirism for about 3 Ma during progressive thinning of the collapsing orogenic crust.

Short-term passive tracer plume dispersion in convective boundary layer using a high-resolution WRF-ARW model

High-resolution Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecast model is used to understand the role of atmospheric stability on the short-term transport of a continuous release passive scalar plume in three different convective boundary layer regimes: highly convective, combined shear- and buoyancy and shear dominated. Friction velocity to convective velocity ratio and atmospheric stability parameter are used to classify the boundary layer regimes. The effect of release height on the plume transport is addressed by releasing the plumes at surface, near-surface and elevated heights. Total 144 simulations are performed by releasing the plume in the morning and afternoon times of January and August months and at three release heights. Results show that horizontal transport of the plume scales with the initial wind conditions for surface and near-surface releases, and the vertical transport scales with atmospheric stability parameter. Mean plume height and vertical dispersion parameter obtained by convective scaling laws reached their asymptotic values after getting well-mixed in the boundary layer. The dimensionless downwind distance for the mean plume height to reach its asymptote is found to follow a power-law with respect to the atmospheric stability paramter. The coefficient and exponent of the power-law observed are found to be functions of the plume release height normalized by the boundary layer depth.

Atmospheric Overturning across Multiple Scales of an MJO Event during the CINDY/DYNAMO Campaign

Abstract This study investigates the atmospheric overturning of the October 2011 MJO event observed during the Cooperative Indian Ocean Experiment on Intraseasonal Variability in the Year 2011 (CINDY)/DYNAMO field experiment using a cloud-permitting numerical model. The isentropic analysis is used to sort the vertical mass transport in terms of the equivalent potential temperature of the air parcels, which naturally decomposes the atmospheric overturning between ascending air with high entropy and subsiding air with low entropy. The circulation is further decomposed into contributions of four main scales: basinwide ascent, meridional overturning, regional overturning, and convection. Results show that the convective scale dominates the upward mass transport while larger scales play an important role both by allowing a deeper overturning and by modulating convective activity. There are substantial changes in the atmospheric overturning during different phases of this MJO event. Increased convective activity at low levels precedes the onset of the MJO by several days. The initiation of the MJO itself is associated with a substantial increase in the atmospheric overturning over the Indian Ocean. The subsequent eastward propagation of the MJO event can be clearly captured by the evolutions of convective-scale vertical mass fluxes at different altitudes. The equivalent potential temperatures of the rising and subsiding air parcels in the convective-scale overturning are also increased in the troposphere during the active phase of the MJO.

Convective-Scale Perturbation Growth across the Spectrum of Convective Regimes

Abstract Convection-permitting ensembles have led to improved forecasts of many atmospheric phenomena. However, to fully utilize these forecasts the dependence of predictability on synoptic conditions needs to be understood. In this study, convective regimes are diagnosed based on a convective time scale that identifies the degree to which convection is in equilibrium with the large-scale forcing. Six convective cases are examined in a convection-permitting ensemble constructed using the Met Office Unified Model. The ensemble members were generated using small-amplitude buoyancy perturbations added into the boundary layer, which can be considered to represent turbulent fluctuations close to the grid scale. Perturbation growth is shown to occur on different scales with an order of magnitude difference between the regimes [O(1) km for cases closer to nonequilibrium convection and O(10) km for cases closer to equilibrium convection]. This difference reflects the fact that cell locations are essentially random in the equilibrium events after the first 12 h of the forecast, indicating a more rapid upscale perturbation growth compared to the nonequilibrium events. Furthermore, large temporal variability is exhibited in all perturbation growth diagnostics for the nonequilibrium regime. Two boundary condition–driven cases are also considered and show similar characteristics to the nonequilibrium cases, implying that caution is needed to interpret the time scale when initiation is not within the domain. Further understanding of perturbation growth within the different regimes could lead to a better understanding of where ensemble design improvements can be made beyond increasing the model resolution and could improve interpretation of forecasts.

A Study on the Assimilation of High-Resolution Microwave Humidity Sounder Data for Convective Scale Model at KMA

A Study on the Assimilation of High-Resolution Microwave Humidity Sounder Data for Convective Scale Model at KMA

Characterization of Moist Processes Associated With Changes in the Propagation of the MJO With Increasing CO2.

The processes that lead to changes in the propagation and maintenance of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) as a response to increasing CO2 are examined by analyzing moist static energy budget of the MJO in a series of NASA GISS model simulations. It is found changes in MJO propagation is dominated by several key processes. Horizontal moisture advection, a key process for MJO propagation, is found to enhance predominantly due to an increase in the mean horizontal moisture gradients. The terms that determine the strength of the advecting wind anomalies, the MJO horizontal scale and the dry static stability, are found to exhibit opposing trends that largely cancel out. Furthermore, reduced sensitivity of precipitation to changes in column moisture, i.e., a lengthening in the convective moisture adjustment time scale, also opposes enhanced propagation. The dispersion relationship of Adames and Kim, which accounts for all these processes, predicts an acceleration of the MJO at a rate of ∼3.5% K−1, which is consistent with the actual phase speed changes in the simulation. For the processes that contribute to MJO maintenance, it is found that damping by vertical MSE advection is reduced due to the increasing vertical moisture gradient. This weaker damping is nearly canceled by weaker maintenance by cloud‐radiative feedbacks, yielding the growth rate from the linear moisture mode theory nearly unchanged with the warming. Furthermore, the estimated growth rates are found to be a small, negative values, suggesting that the MJO in the simulation is a weakly damped mode.

An analytical model based on the G-equation for the response of technically premixed flames to perturbations of equivalence ratio

A model for the response of technically premixed flames to equivalence ratio perturbations is proposed. The formulation, which is an extension of an analytical flame tracking model based on the linearized G-equation, considers the flame impulse response to a local, impulsive, infinitesimal perturbation that is transported by convection from the flame base towards the flame surface. It is shown that the contributions of laminar flame speed and heat of reaction to the impulse response exhibit a local behavior, i.e. the flame responds at the moment when and at the location where the equivalence ratio perturbation reaches the flame surface. The time lag of this process is related to a convective time scale, which corresponds to the convective transport of fuel from the base of the flame to the flame surface. On the contrary, the flame surface area contribution exhibits a non-local behavior: albeit fluctuations of the flame shape are generated locally due to a distortion of the kinematic balance between flame speed and the flow velocity, the resulting wrinkles in flame shape are then transported by convection towards the flame tip with the restorative time scale. The impact of radial non-uniformity in equivalence ratio perturbations on the flame impulse response is demonstrated by comparing the impulse responses for uniform and parabolic radial profiles. Considerable deviation in the phase of the flame transfer function, which is important for thermo-acoustic stability, is observed.

Scientific Challenges of Convective-Scale Numerical Weather Prediction

AbstractAfter extensive efforts over the course of a decade, convective-scale weather forecasts with horizontal grid spacings of 1–5 km are now operational at national weather services around the world, accompanied by ensemble prediction systems (EPSs). However, though already operational, the capacity of forecasts for this scale is still to be fully exploited by overcoming the fundamental difficulty in prediction: the fully three-dimensional and turbulent nature of the atmosphere. The prediction of this scale is totally different from that of the synoptic scale (103km), with slowly evolving semigeostrophic dynamics and relatively long predictability on the order of a few days.Even theoretically, very little is understood about the convective scale compared to our extensive knowledge of the synoptic-scale weather regime as a partial differential equation system, as well as in terms of the fluid mechanics, predictability, uncertainties, and stochasticity. Furthermore, there is a requirement for a drastic modification of data assimilation methodologies, physics (e.g., microphysics), and parameterizations, as well as the numerics for use at the convective scale. We need to focus on more fundamental theoretical issues—the Liouville principle and Bayesian probability for probabilistic forecasts—and more fundamental turbulence research to provide robust numerics for the full variety of turbulent flows.The present essay reviews those basic theoretical challenges as comprehensibly as possible. The breadth of the problems that we face is a challenge in itself: an attempt to reduce these into a single critical agenda should be avoided.

Convective Scaling of Intrinsic Thermo-Acoustic Eigenfrequencies of a Premixed Swirl Combustor

Spectral distributions of the sound pressure level (SPL) observed in a premixed, swirl stabilized combustion test rig are scrutinized. Spectral peaks in the SPL for stable as well as unstable cases are interpreted with the help of a novel criterion for the resonance frequencies of the intrinsic thermo-acoustic (ITA) feedback loop. This criterion takes into the account the flow inertia of the burner and indicates that in the limit of very large flow inertia, ITA resonance should appear at frequencies where the phase of the flame transfer function (FTF) approaches −π/2. Conversely, in the limiting case of vanishing flow inertia, the new criterion agrees with previous results, which state that ITA modes may arise when the phase of the FTF is close to −π. Relying on the novel criterion, peaks in the SPL spectra are identified to correspond to either ITA or acoustic modes. Various combustor configurations are investigated over a range of operating conditions. It is found that in this particular combustor, ITA modes are prevalent and dominate the unstable cases. Remarkably, the ITA frequencies change significantly with the bulk flow velocity and the position of the swirler but are almost insensitive to changes in the length of the combustion chamber (CC). These observations imply that the resonance frequencies of the ITA feedback loop are governed by convective time scales. A scaling rule for ITA frequencies that relies on a model for the overall convective flame time lag shows good consistency for all operating conditions considered in this study.

Sensitivities of Summertime Mesoscale Circulations in the Coastal Carolinas to Modifications of the Kain-Fritsch Cumulus Parameterization.

Two mesoscale circulations, the Sandhills circulation and the sea breeze, influence the initiation of deep convection over the Sandhills and the coast in the Carolinas during the summer months. The interaction of these two circulations causes additional convection in this coastal region. Accurate representation of mesoscale convection is difficult as numerical models have problems with the prediction of the timing, amount, and location of precipitation. To address this issue, the authors have incorporated modifications to the Kain-Fritsch (KF) convective parameterization scheme and evaluated these mesoscale interactions using a high-resolution numerical model. The modifications include changes to the subgrid-scale cloud formulation, the convective turnover time scale, and the formulation of the updraft entrainment rates. The use of a grid-scaling adjustment parameter modulates the impact of the KF scheme as a function of the horizontal grid spacing used in a simulation. Results indicate that the impact of this modified cumulus parameterization scheme is more effective on domains with coarser grid sizes. Other results include a decrease in surface and near-surface temperatures in areas of deep convection (due to the inclusion of the effects of subgrid-scale clouds on the radiation), improvement in the timing of convection, and an increase in the strength of deep convection.

Observations of the Morning Development of the Urban Boundary Layer Over London, UK, Taken During the ACTUAL Project

The study of the boundary layer can be most difficult when it is in transition and forced by a complex surface, such as an urban area. Here, a novel combination of ground-based remote sensing and in situ instrumentation in central London, UK, is deployed, aiming to capture the full evolution of the urban boundary layer (UBL) from night-time until the fully-developed convective phase. In contrast with the night-time stable boundary layer observed over rural areas, the night-time UBL is weakly convective. Therefore, a new approach for the detection of the morning-transition and rapid-growth phases is introduced, based on the sharp, quasi-linear increase of the mixing height. The urban morning-transition phase varied in duration between 0.5 and 4 h and the growth rate of the mixing layer during the rapid-growth phase had a strong positive relationship with the convective velocity scale, and a weaker, negative relationship with wind speed. Wind shear was found to be higher during the night-time and morning-transition phases than the rapid-growth phase and the shear production of turbulent kinetic energy near the mixing-layer top was around six times larger than surface shear production in summer, and around 1.5 times larger in winter. In summer under low winds, low-level jets dominated the UBL, and shear production was greater than buoyant production during the night-time and the morning-transition phase near the mixing-layer top. Within the rapid-growth phase, buoyant production dominated at the surface, but shear production dominated in the upper half of the UBL. These results imply that regional flows such as low-level jets play an important role alongside surface forcing in determining UBL structure and growth.

A Grid-Refinement-Based Approach for Modeling the Convective Boundary Layer in the Gray Zone: A Pilot Study

Abstract The model gray zone refers to the range of grid spacings comparable to the dominant length scale of the flow. In the gray zone, the flow is partially resolved and partially subgrid scale (SGS). Neither ensemble-averaging-based parameterizations nor turbulence closures are appropriate for parameterizing the effects of SGS motions on the resolved flow. The gray zone of the convective boundary layer (CBL) is in the range of CBL depth, typically O(1) km. A new approach that seeks explicit resolution of the unstable surface layer through a nest layer of fine grid spacing is proposed to improve CBL parameterization in the gray zone. To provide the theoretical basis for the approach, a linear analytic model is presented, and one-way nested simulations are performed to investigate the dynamical coupling between the surface layer and the mixed layer. The analytic model shows that at the onset of thermal instability, the vertical and horizontal structures of the mixed layer are set by surface-layer forcings. The nested 3D simulations extend the findings from the analytic model and further reveal potential improvements in high-order statistics and resolved convective structures both including and extending above the nest region compared to the stand-alone gray-zone simulations. This study suggests that when the most energetic scales of CBL convection are resolved in the surface layer, the overall simulation of the CBL improves at gray-zone resolutions.

Updates in the NCEP GFS Cumulus Convection Schemes with Scale and Aerosol Awareness

Abstract The current operational NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) cumulus convection schemes are updated with a scale-aware parameterization where the cloud mass flux decreases with increasing grid resolution. The ratio of advective time to convective turnover time is also taken into account for the scale-aware parameterization. In addition, the present deep cumulus convection closure using the quasi-equilibrium assumption is no longer used for grid sizes smaller than a threshold value. For the shallow cumulus convection scheme, the cloud-base mass flux is modified to be given by a function of mean updraft velocity. A simple aerosol-aware parameterization where rain conversion in the convective updraft is modified by aerosol number concentration is also included in the update. Along with the scale- and aerosol-aware parameterizations, more changes are made to the schemes. The cloud-base mass-flux computation in the deep convection scheme is modified to use convective turnover time as the convective adjustment time scale. The rain conversion rate is modified to decrease with decreasing air temperature above the freezing level. Convective inhibition in the subcloud layer is used as an additional trigger condition. Convective cloudiness is enhanced by considering suspended cloud condensate in the updraft. The lateral entrainment in the deep convection scheme is also enhanced to more strongly suppress convection in a drier environment. The updated NCEP GFS cumulus convection schemes display significant improvements especially in the summertime continental U.S. precipitation forecasts.

Combining ground-based microwave radiometer and the AROME convective scale model through 1DVAR retrievals in complex terrain: an Alpine valley case study

Abstract. A RPG-HATPRO ground-based microwave radiometer (MWR) was operated in a deep Alpine valley during the Passy-2015 field campaign. This experiment aims to investigate how stable boundary layers during wintertime conditions drive the accumulation of pollutants. In order to understand the atmospheric processes in the valley, MWRs continuously provide vertical profiles of temperature and humidity at a high time frequency, providing valuable information to follow the evolution of the boundary layer. A one-dimensional variational (1DVAR) retrieval technique has been implemented during the field campaign to optimally combine an MWR and 1 h forecasts from the French convective scale model AROME. Retrievals were compared to radiosonde data launched at least every 3 h during two intensive observation periods (IOPs). An analysis of the AROME forecast errors during the IOPs has shown a large underestimation of the surface cooling during the strongest stable episode. MWR brightness temperatures were monitored against simulations from the radiative transfer model ARTS2 (Atmospheric Radiative Transfer Simulator) and radiosonde launched during the field campaign. Large errors were observed for most transparent channels (i.e., 51–52 GHz) affected by absorption model and calibration uncertainties while a good agreement was found for opaque channels (i.e., 54–58 GHz). Based on this monitoring, a bias correction of raw brightness temperature measurements was applied before the 1DVAR retrievals. 1DVAR retrievals were found to significantly improve the AROME forecasts up to 3 km but mainly below 1 km and to outperform usual statistical regressions above 1 km. With the present implementation, a root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 1 K through all the atmospheric profile was obtained with values within 0.5 K below 500 m in clear-sky conditions. The use of lower elevation angles (up to 5°) in the MWR scanning and the bias correction were found to improve the retrievals below 1000 m. MWR retrievals were found to catch deep near-surface temperature inversions very well. Larger errors were observed in cloudy conditions due to the difficulty of ground-based MWRs to resolve high level inversions that are still challenging. Finally, 1DVAR retrievals were optimized for the analysis of the IOPs by using radiosondes as backgrounds in the 1DVAR algorithm instead of the AROME forecasts. A significant improvement of the retrievals in cloudy conditions and below 1000 m in clear-sky conditions was observed. From this study, we can conclude that MWRs are expected to bring valuable information into numerical weather prediction models up to 3 km in altitude both in clear-sky and cloudy-sky conditions with the maximum improvement found around 500 m. With an accuracy between 0.5 and 1 K in RMSE, our study has also proven that MWRs are capable of resolving deep near-surface temperature inversions observed in complex terrain during highly stable boundary layer conditions.

Mesoscale organization, entrainment, and the properties of a closed‐cell stratocumulus cloud

AbstractClosed‐cell mesoscale organization and its relationship to entrainment and the properties of a low, nonprecipitating stratocumulus cloud is investigated. Large eddy simulations were run over 10 periodic diurnal cycles during which mesoscale organization could fully develop and approach a quasi‐steady state on five domains sized from 2.4 km × 2.4 km to 38.4 km × 38.4 km. The four smaller domains hosted a single cell with an aspect ratio that increased with domain size. On the largest domain, mesoscale organization consisted of a cell population that evolved over the course of the diurnal cycle. It is found that with increasing cell aspect ratio, entrainment weakens and the boundary layer becomes shallower, cooler, moister, and more decoupled. This causes an increase in cloud water path and cloud radiative effect up to a cell aspect ratio of 16. With further increase in cell aspect ratio, circulation on the cell scale becomes less effective in supplying moisture to the cloud and in producing turbulent kinetic energy (TKE). This mechanism can explain scale saturation in closed‐cell mesoscale organization. The simulations support a maximum stable aspect ratio of closed‐cell mesoscale organization between 32 and 64, consistent with the observational limit of 40. The simulations show furthermore that entrainment does not, in general, scale with buoyant production of TKE. Instead, entrainment correlates with the vertical component of TKE. This implies vertical motion as a driver of entrainment, and a convective velocity scale based on the vertical component of TKE rather than on buoyant production of TKE.

Simultaneous characterization of mesoscale and convective‐scale tropical rainfall extremes and their dynamical and thermodynamic modes of change

AbstractThe Superparameterized Community Atmosphere Model (SPCAM) is used to identify the dynamical and organizational properties of tropical extreme rainfall events on two scales. We compare the mesoscales resolved by General Circulation Models (GCMs) and the convective scales resolved by Cloud‐Resolving Models (CRMs) to reassess and extend on previous results from GCMs and CRMs in radiative‐convective equilibrium. We first show that the improved representation of subgridscale dynamics in SPCAM allows for a close agreement with the 7%/K Clausius‐Clapeyron rate of increase in mesoscale extremes rainfall rates. Three contributions to changes in extremes are quantified and appear consistent in sign and relative magnitude with previous results. On mesoscales, the thermodynamic contribution (5.8%/K) and the contribution from mass flux increases (2%/K) enhance precipitation rates, while the upward displacement of the mass flux profile (‐1.1%/K) offsets this increase. Convective‐scale extremes behave similarly except that changes in mass flux are negligible due to a balance between greater numbers of strong updrafts and downdrafts and lesser numbers of weak updrafts. Extremes defined on these two scales behave as two independent sets of rainfall events, with different dynamics, geometries, and responses to climate change. In particular, dynamic changes in mesoscale extremes appear primarily sensitive to changes in the large‐scale mass flux, while the intensity of convective‐scale extremes is not. In particular, the increases in mesoscale mass flux directly contribute to the intensification of mesoscale extreme rain, but do not seem to affect the increase in convective‐scale rainfall intensities. These results motivate the need for better understanding the role of the large‐scale forcing on the formation and intensification of heavy convective rainfall.

Year-Long Vertical Velocity Statistics Derived from Doppler Lidar Data for the Continental Convective Boundary Layer

AbstractOne year of coherent Doppler lidar data collected at the U.S. Department of Energy’s Atmospheric Radiation Measurement site in Oklahoma was analyzed to provide profiles of vertical velocity variance, skewness, and kurtosis for cases of cloud-free convective boundary layers. The variance was normalized by the Deardorff convective velocity scale, which was successful when the boundary layer depth was stationary but failed in situations in which the layer was changing rapidly. In this study, the data are sorted according to time of day, season, wind direction, surface shear stress, degree of instability, and wind shear across the boundary layer top. The normalized variance was found to have its peak value near a normalized height of 0.25. The magnitude of the variance changes with season, shear stress, degree of instability, and wind shear across the boundary layer top. The skewness was largest in the top half of the boundary layer (with the exception of wintertime conditions). The skewness was also found to be a function of the season, shear stress, and wind shear across the boundary layer top. Like skewness, the vertical profile of kurtosis followed a consistent pattern, with peak values near the boundary layer top. The normalized altitude of the peak values of kurtosis was found to be higher when there was a large amount of wind shear at the boundary layer top.

On the effect of laterally varying boundary heat flux on rapidly rotating spherical shell convection

The onset of convection in a rotating spherical shell subject to laterally varying heat flux at the outer boundary is considered in this paper. The focus is on the geophysically relevant regime of rapid rotation (low Ekman number) where the natural length scale of convection is significantly smaller than the length scale imposed by the boundary heat flux pattern. Contrary to earlier studies at a higher Ekman number, we find a substantial reduction in the onset Rayleigh number Rac with increasing lateral variation. The decrease in Rac is shown to be closely correlated to the equatorial heat flux surplus in the steady, basic state solution. The consistency of such a correlation makes the estimation of Rac possible without solving the full stability problem. The steady baroclinic flow has a strong cyclone–anticyclone asymmetry in the kinetic helicity only for equatorially symmetric lateral variations, with possible implications for dynamo action. Equatorially antisymmetric variations, on the other hand, break the symmetry of the mean flow, in turn negating its helicity. Analysis of the perturbation solution reveals strongly localized clusters through which convection rolls drift in and out at a frequency higher than that for the reference case with homogeneous boundary heat flux. Large lateral variations produce a marked decrease in the azimuthal length scale of columns, which indicates that small-scale motions are essential to the transport of heat in rapidly rotating, localized convection. With an equatorially antisymmetric heat flux pattern, convection in individual clusters goes through an asynchronous wax-wane cycle whose frequency is much lower than the drift rate of the columns. These continual variations in convection intensity may in turn result in fluctuations in the magnetic field intensity, an effect that needs to be considered in dynamo models. Finally, there is a notable analogy between the role of a laterally varying boundary heat flux and the role of a laterally varying magnetic field in confining small-scale convection.

A comparison of limited-area 3DVAR and ETKF-En3DVAR data assimilation using radar observations at convective scale for the prediction of Typhoon Saomai (2006)

The ensemble transform Kalman filter based ensemble 3D variational (ETKF-En3DVAR) data assimilation (DA) system is employed to evaluate the potential value of assimilating radar radial wind (Vr) data for the analysis and forecasting of Typhoon Saomai (2006). The DA system conducted cycling assimilation every 30 min when Saomai started to enter radar coverage. Within the DA cycles, the control analysis was updated by the ETKF-En3DVAR algorithm whereas the forecast ensemble perturbations in the hybrid scheme were updated by the ETKF algorithm. The benefits from the use of the flow-dependent ensemble covariance are explored by comparing the analysis increments, analysis and subsequent forecasts from the hybrid scheme with those from a pure 3DVAR using static background error covariance. Sensitivity to the horizontal correlation scale in the 3DVAR and the vertical covariance localization in the hybrid are also explored. The reduced horizontal correlation scale in the 3DVAR yields much more reasonable circulation analyses than the default scale. The vertical covariance localization scale specified in terms of geometric height instead of model levels allows for desirable spreading of Vr data to the surface. It seems that the assimilation with the hybrid method leads to further improved vortex intensity forecast and track forecast of the typhoon compared to those in the analyses from the global forecast system and 3DVAR. The results also indicated that the hybrid has a significant effect on the 12 h accumulated rainfall forecasts. Such improvements for analysis and forecast are probably due to the use of the flow-dependent background error covariance.