This study established a complete heat transfer prediction model that integrates four heat transfer sub-models, including contact heat conduction, gas film heat conduction, heat radiation, and heat convection, along with an artificial softening correction based on combined approach of computational fluid dynamics and discrete element method (CFD-DEM). The model’s precision was confirmed by experimental results with relative errors below 5 %. The discussion on the heat flux contributions of the above four heat transfer mechanisms shows that with an initial particle temperature of 200℃, tube wall temperature of 30℃, and particle descent velocity of 1.3 mm/s, gas film conduction heat flux is the primary contributor to the total tube wall heat flux at 60.5 %, followed by radiation heat flux (19.5 %), contact conduction heat flux (12.1 %), and convection heat flux (7.9 %). Besides, the presentation of physical fields related to particles and the fluid showcases the model’s capability in elucidating the heat and mass transfer characteristics of the particle–fluid-wall system within tubular MBHEs. Furthermore, a local nominal range sensitivity analysis, along with a study of factors’ influence rules, was performed to quantify the effects of the 8 key model parameters on heat transfer results. The analysis indicates that fluid thermal conductivity is the predominant factor with its nondimensionalized first-order sensitivity coefficient of 54.9 %, succeeded by particle-to-wall angle factor (15.4 %), wall emissivity (14.4 %), gas film thickness (9.6 %), wall thermal conductivity (2.3 %), wall roughness (-1.6 %), particle Young’s modulus (-1.4 %), and particle specific heat capacity (0.4 %). Finally, their impacts on the heat prediction results were presented in detail.