Convective Bursts Research Articles

Diurnal MCSs Precede the Genesis of Tropical Cyclone Mora (2017): The Role of Convectively Forced Gravity Waves

Abstract A novel high-resolution regional reanalysis is used to investigate the mesoscale processes that preceded the formation of Tropical Cyclone (TC) Mora (2017). Both satellite observations and the regional reanalysis show early morning mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) persistently initiated and organized in the downshear quadrant of the preexisting tropical disturbance a few days prior to the genesis of TC Mora. The diurnal MCSs gradually enhanced the meso-α-scale vortex near the center of the preexisting tropical disturbance through vortex stretching, providing a vorticity-rich and moist environment for the following burst of deep convection and enhancement of the meso-β-scale vortex. The regional reanalysis shows that the gravity waves that radiated from afternoon convection over the northern coast of the Bay of Bengal might play an important role in modulating the diurnal cycle of pregenesis MCSs. The diurnal convectively forced gravity waves increased the tropospheric stability, reduced the column saturation fraction, and suppressed deep convection within the preexisting tropical disturbance from noon to evening. A similar quasi-diurnal cycle of organized deep convection prior to TC genesis has also been observed over other basins. However, modeling studies are needed to conclusively demonstrate the relationships between the gravity waves and pregenesis diurnal MCSs. Also, whether diurnal gravity waves play a similar role in modulating the pregenesis deep convection in other TCs is worth future investigations. Significance Statement Tropical cyclogenesis is a process by which a less organized weather system in the tropics develops into a tropical cyclone (TC). Observations indicate that thunderstorms occurring prior to the tropical cyclogenesis often show a distinct quasi-diurnal cycle, while the related physical mechanisms are still unclear. In this study, we used a novel high-resolution dataset to investigate the diurnal thunderstorms occurring prior to the genesis of TC Mora (2017). We find that the pregenesis diurnal thunderstorms played a crucial role in spinning up the circulation of the atmosphere and provided a favorable environment for the rapid formation of Mora. It is likely that gravity waves emitted by afternoon thunderstorms over the inland region were responsible for regulating the diurnal variation of pregenesis thunderstorms over the ocean.

Driving Forces of Extreme Updrafts Associated With Convective Bursts in the Eyewall of a Simulated Tropical Cyclone

AbstractMany studies have indicated that convective bursts (CBs) are closely related to tropical cyclone (TC) intensification, but few studies have been conducted on the mechanisms that control the formation and evolution of CBs. In this study, the 1‐min output data of a simulated TC are used to understand the convective extreme updrafts of CBs in the TC eyewall. Three different reference states including the local square‐area mean (LAM), the lower wavenumber‐components mean (WNM), and the arc‐area mean (ArcM) are used to calculate the driving forces of convective extreme updrafts. Contrary to the WNM and ArcM reference states, the LAM reference state struggles to capture realistic basic state structures. The LAM reference state can be modified through the inclusion of the mean hydrometeor mixing ratio in the basic state to produce physically consistent forcing in relation to the simulated convective extreme updrafts. The simulated convective extreme updrafts in the TC eyewall exhibit two peaks at middle and upper levels, respectively, since the effect of hydrometeor loading, decelerates the air parcels between the updraft maxima. While the positive buoyancy makes air parcels in the CBs accelerate at middle levels, in agreement with previous studies, it is found that, at the upper levels, both the positive buoyancy and the upward vertical perturbation pressure gradient force accelerate the air parcels. This study suggests that the vertical perturbation pressure gradient force also plays an important role in the formation of CBs in the TC eyewall.

Three-dimensional solid particle self-assembly in thermovibrational flow: The case with unidirectional temperature gradient and concurrent vibrations

As a follow-up to earlier work [Crewdson and Lappa, “Spatial and temporal evolution of three-dimensional thermovibrational convection in a cubic cavity with various thermal boundary conditions,” Phys. Fluids 34, 014108 (2022)], where the main focus was on the modes of convection in a three-dimensional cubic enclosure filled with a Pr = 7 liquid undergoing vibrations in a direction “parallel” to the imposed temperature gradient, the present study considers the modes of particle clustering, which occur when solid spheres, with density ratio ξ = 1.85 or 0.3 and Stokes number (St) between 0.5 and 3.5 × 10−5, are added to the fluid. Starting from a uniform distribution of solid particles and fluid in quiescent conditions, the governing equations for the involved phases are numerically solved in their complete, time-dependent, and non-linear form for a representative vibrational Rayleigh number (8.34 × 104), angular frequency Ω = 50, and non-dimensional acceleration amplitude (γ) spanning the interval 0.4 × 107 ≤ γ ≤ 3.4 × 107. It is shown that, while for relatively high values of St and/or γ, only degenerate states are obtained, where all particles collapse on planar structures, for intermediate values of such parameters, interesting (heretofore unseen) patterns are enabled. The hallmark of these phenomena is an endless squeezing and expansion of the particle formations along the direction of the temperature gradient. As confirmed by the numerical simulations, the underlying formation mechanisms rely on the combined action of the body force acting on particles due to their different densities with respect to the host fluid and the additional drag that is produced when the carrier thermovibrational flow enters a specific stage, known as “convective burst,” where the magnitude of the fluid velocity increases dramatically.

О конвективной устойчивости равновесия коллоидов и жидких бинарных смесей при положительной термодиффузии

The study investigates stability of the mechanical equilibrium of colloids and binary mixtures with positive thermal diffusion. Such problems are usually considered in the presence of a stationary con-centration distribution that arises due to thermal diffusion and (or) sedimentation. But in connected vertical channels of a square section of 3.2 × 3.2 mm with a height of 50 mm, a Hele-Shaw cell of 17 × 32 × 1.5 mm, and a flat layer with a height of 3mm when heated from below, the time it takes the concentration profile to become settled is extremely long and ranges from several days to several years. Therefore, the stability of the equilibrium was analyzed in the presence of increasing concen-tration inhomogeneities. This helped explain the experimental facts: 1) periodic (~ 4 hours) convec-tive bursts were observed in the magnetic fluid in channels below the critical Rayleigh number; 2) bursts with a period of ~ 0.5 hours were observed in the binary mixture in the Hele-Shaw cell. A formula for the period of bursts has been obtained, it gives results close to experimental ones.

On the Rapid Weakening of Typhoon Trami (2018): Strong Sea Surface Temperature Cooling Associated with Slow Translation Speed

Abstract This work investigates the rapid weakening (RW) processes of Typhoon Trami (2018) by examining sea surface temperature (SST) cooling based on air–sea coupled simulations during typhoon passage. The cold wake and Trami’s RW occurred as the storm was moving at a very slow translation speed. A marked structural change of Trami is found in a three-dimensional ocean-coupled model experiment during the RW stage, in which the convective clouds and convective bursts in the inner core of the simulated TC dramatically decrease, resulting in the loss of diabatic heating and leading to weakening of the TC. In the simulation, the enthalpy flux dramatically decreases in the inner core because of the SST cooling during the RW period, while a stable boundary layer (SBL) is formed in the TC’s inner-core region. The expanding SBL coverage stabilizes the atmosphere and suppresses convection in the inner core, leading to weakening of the storm. A more stable atmosphere in the cold wake is also identified by the inner-core dropsonde data from the field program of Tropical Cyclones-Pacific Asian Research Campaign for Improvement of Intensity Estimations/Forecasts. The strong SST cooling also changes the evolution of Trami’s eyewall replacement cycle (ERC) and limits the eyewall contraction after the ERC.

Effect of Particle Thermophoresis on Convection of Magnetic

The effect of positive thermodiffusion of colloidal particles under convection of magneticfluids in connected vertical channels of 3.2 × 3.2 mm2 square cross-section and height 50 mm heated from below is analyzed. Below the critical Rayleigh number, particle thermophoresis in vertical generates unstable density stratification in fluid at rest. This leads to rapid bursts (~1 min) of concentration convection arising periodically (~4 h). Under developed convection, above the critical Rayleigh number particle thermophoresis in horizontal direction generates concentration inhomogeneities in the neighborhood of the channel walls and provokes convective flow instability that leads to the periodicchange (~1 h) in the direction of convective stream. The reasons of the oscillatory instability of mechanical equilibrium observed experimentally at positive sign of the Soret coefficient are discussed.

Localized Origin at the Core‐Mantle Boundary of the 1969 Geomagnetic Impulse

Localized Origin at the Core‐Mantle Boundary of the 1969 Geomagnetic Impulse

Magnetic damping of jet flows in quasi-two-dimensional Rayleigh-Bénard convection.

The mechanism responsible for the damping of the large-scale, azimuthally directed jets observed at Jupiter's surface is not well known, but electromagnetic forces are suspected to play a role as the planet's electrical conductivity increases radially with depth. To isolate the jet damping process, we carry out a suite of direct numerical simulations of quasi-two-dimensional, horizontally periodic Rayleigh-Bénard convection with stress-free boundary conditions in the presence of an external, vertical magnetic field. Jets, punctuated by intermittent convective bursts, develop at Rayleigh numbers (Ra, ratio of buoyancy to diffusion) beyond 10^{5} when the magnetic field is relatively weak. Five primary flow regimes are found by varying 10^{3}≤Ra≤10^{10} and the Chandrasekhar number (Ch, ratio of Lorentz to viscosity) 0≤Ch≤10^{6}: (i) steady convection rolls, (ii) steady magneto-columns, (iii) unsteady to turbulent magneto-plumes, (iv) horizontally drifting magneto-plumes, and (v) jets with intermittent turbulent convective bursts. We parse the parameter space using transitions derived from the interaction parameter (N, ratio of Lorentz to inertia). The transition to the regime dominated by jets has the most immediate applications to the magnetic damping of Jovian jet flows, where the separation between jets and a magnetically constrained system occurs at a jet-based interaction parameter value of N_{J}≈1. We approximate the value of the Jovian interaction parameter as a function of depth, and find that the jets may brake at ≈6000km below the surface, which is deeper than recent estimates from NASA's Juno mission. This suggests that mechanisms in addition to electromagnetic forces are likely required to fully truncate the jets.

Simulation of Rapid Intensification of Super Typhoon Lekima (2019). Part I: Evolution Characteristics of Asymmetric Convection Under Upper-Level Vertical Wind Shear

The role of the upper-level vertical wind shear (VWS) on the rapid intensification (RI) of super typhoon Lekima (2019) is investigated with a high-resolution numerical simulation. Our simulation shows that under moderate upper-level easterly VWS, the tilting-induced convective asymmetry is transported from the initially downshear quadrant to the upshear quadrant and wrapped around the storm center by the cyclonic flow of the storm while moving inward. This process enhances upward motions at the upshear flank and creates upper-level divergent flow. As such, the establishment of outflow acts against the environmental flow to reduce the VWS, allowing vertical alignment of the storm. The organized outflow plays an important role in sustaining the inner-core deep convection by modulating the environmental upper-level thermal structure. Accompanying deep convective bursts (CBs), cold anomalies are generated in the tropopause layer due to the adiabatic cooling by the upward motion and radiative process associated with the cloud anvil. Physically, cold anomalies at the tropopause locally destabilize the atmosphere and enhance the convections and the secondary circulation. The CBs continue to develop episodically through this process as they wrap around the storm center to form a symmetric eyewall. The results suggest that deep convections are capable of reducing the upper-level VWS, promoting the development of upper-level outflow. Lekima overcame the less favorable environment and eventually intensified to become a super typhoon.

Double warm-core structure and potential vorticity diagnosis during the rapid intensification of Supertyphoon Lekima (2019)

AbstractThe rapid intensification (RI) of supertyphoon Lekima (2019) is investigated from the perspective of balanced potential vorticity (PV) dynamics using a high-resolution numerical simulation. The PV budget shows that the inner-core PV anomalies (PVAs) formed during the RI mainly comprise an eyewall PV tower generated by diabatic heating, a high-PV bridge extending into the eye resulting from the PV mixing, and an upper-tropospheric high-PV core induced by the PV intrusion from stratosphere. The inversion of the total PVA at the end of the RI captures about 90% of changes in pressure and wind fields, indicating that the storm is quasi-balanced. The piecewise PV inversion further demonstrates that the eyewall and mixed PVAs induce the upper-level and midlevel warm cores in the eye region, respectively. The two warm cores cause nearly all the balanced central pressure decrease and thus dominate the RI, with the contribution of the upper warm core being twice that of the midlevel one. In contrast, the upper-tropospheric PV core induces significant warming near the tropopause and deep-layer cooling beneath, reinforcing the upper-level warm core but causing little surface pressure drop.By comparing the diabatic PV generation due to the convective burst (CB) and non-CB precipitation, we found that the non-CB precipitation accounts for a larger portion for the eyewall PVA and thus the associated upper-level warming, distinct from previous studies that primarily attributed the upper-level warm-core formation to the CB. Nevertheless, CBs act to be more efficient PV generators due to their vigorous latent heat release and are thus favorable for RI.

Tracing Extreme Updrafts in Hurricane Wilma (2005) to Their Boundary Layer Roots Using Trajectories: A Thermodynamic and Structural Analysis

Abstract This study uses a recently developed trajectory model to trace eyewall updrafts in a high-resolution Hurricane Wilma (2005) prediction to their roots in the maritime boundary layer (MBL) in order to better understand their thermodynamics and how they interact with the swirling winds. Out of 97 020 four-hour backward trajectories seeded from the upper troposphere, the 45% of them originating from the MBL are stratified into five subsamples binned by peak vertical velocity wMAX. Of particular interest are the thermodynamic characteristics of parcels belonging to the wMAX-Extreme subsample (i.e., those with wMAX exceeding 20 m s−1) that ascend through Wilma’s strongest convective burst (CB) cores. A vertical momentum budget computed along a selected wMAX-Extreme trajectory confirms that the parcel possesses large positive buoyancy that more than compensates for negative hydrometeor loading to yield an upper-tropospheric wMAX ~ 30 m s−1. Comparing all 1170 wMAX-Extreme trajectories with all 19 296 secondary circulation trajectories shows that the former tends to originate from the MBL where equivalent potential temperature θe and ocean surface heat and moisture fluxes are locally enhanced. The wMAX-Extreme parcels become further differentiated from the background ascent in terms of their (i) greater updraft width and smaller θe reduction while ascending into the midtroposphere, implying lower environmental entrainment rates, and (ii) less hydrometeor loading in the z = 3–5-km layer. The Lagrangian analysis herein bridges two previous studies that focused separately on the importance of high SSTs and fusion latent heat release to the development of CBs, the latter of which may facilitate upper-level warm core development through their compensating subsidence.

Abrupt transitions in an atmospheric single-column model with weak temperature gradient approximation

Abstract. We document a feature of the tropical atmosphere that could be relevant to episodes of abrupt transitions in global climate that regularly occurred during the last ice age. Using a single-column model (SCM) incorporating the weak temperature gradient (WTG) approximation, we find that abrupt transitions occur as the sea surface temperature is steadily increased. Because these transitions arise from the interplay between local deep convection and the large-scale adjustments that are required to maintain weak temperature and pressure gradients, they are only present with the WTG approximation relevant for the tropics but may be of interest as a trigger for abrupt transitions in global climate. These transitions are marked by an abrupt change in the partitioning of rainfall between convective and large-scale (microphysics) subroutines in addition to various other features of the column, including cloudiness, vertical velocity, temperature, and humidity. We conclude that the transitions are initiated by a failure of evaporative cooling in the lower free troposphere. This leads to lower-column heating and a burst of convection that heats the upper free troposphere, increasing the large-scale rainfall rate, which allows for sufficient evaporative cooling to restabilize the column.

Characteristics of the convective bursts and their relationship with the rapid intensification of Super Typhoon Maria (2018)

For Super Typhoon Maria (2018), the multi-intensity change stages are identified and reproduced by numerical simulation. It is rather difficult to perform a perfect simulation for such a repeatedly...

Convective Bursts With Gravity Waves in Tropical Cyclones: Case Study With the Himawari‐8 Satellite and Idealized Numerical Study

AbstractConvective bursts occur frequently in tropical cyclones and help their intensification by diabatic heating, but their quantitative importance has not been established. By using the high‐frequency observation of infrared brightness temperature with Himawari‐8, a latest‐generation geostationary meteorological satellite, convective bursts in Typhoon Lan (2017) were studied. Aided with a series of numerical simulations, it was revealed that the anvil edges of many bursts are associated with finite‐amplitude gravity waves consistent with internal bores, creating warm anomalies by subsidence ahead of the edges. As the edges spread, they are thinned, and their propagation speeds are often decreased. In many such instances, gravity waves, now linear, are separated from the edges to propagate away, spreading convective heating. It is proposed that by quantifying these processes with geostationary satellites, diabatic heating by convective bursts can be estimated to diagnose their impacts on tropical‐cyclone intensification.

Impact of Tropical Cyclone Initialization on Its Convection Development and Intensity: A Case Study of Typhoon Megi (2010)

AbstractThis study investigates the impact of tropical cyclone (TC) initialization methods on TC intensity prediction under a framework coupling the Weather Research and Forecasting Model with the TC Centered-Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (WRF TCC-LETKF). While the TC environments are constrained by assimilating the same environmental observations, two different initialization strategies, assimilating real dropsonde observations (the DP experiment) and synthetic axisymmetric surface wind structure (the VT experiment), are employed to construct the TC inner-core structure. These two experiments have distinct results on predicting the rapid intensification (RI) of Typhoon Megi (2010), which can be attributed to their different convective burst (CB) development. In DP, the assimilation of the dropsondes helps establish a realistic TC structure with asymmetry information, leading to scattered CB distribution and persistent RI with abundant moisture supply. In VT, assimilating the axisymmetric surface wind structure spins up the TC efficiently. However, the initially excessive CB coverage causes a too-early high-level warm core, and the reduced moisture supply hinders RI. The forecast results imply that if the TC structure is initialized using a scheme considering only the axisymmetric vortex structure, the RI potential can possibly be underestimated due to the inability to represent the realistic asymmetric structure. Finally, assimilation of both the real and synthetic data can be complementary, giving a strong TC initially that undergoes a longer RI period.

A Study of the Interaction between Typhoon Francisco (2013) and a Cold-Core Eddy. Part I: Rapid Weakening

AbstractTyphoon Francisco (2013) experienced unusually rapid weakening (RW) with its maximum surface wind decreasing by 45 kt (1 kt ≈ 0.51 m s−1) over 24 h as measured from the satellite-derived advanced Dvorak technique (ADT) dataset, which is more than twice the weakening rate defined as RW by DeMaria. The mechanisms leading to the extreme RW event of Francisco are examined based on observational analysis and simulations by coupling the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model, version 3.7, with the Stony Brook Parallel Ocean Model (sbPOM). The RW of Francisco took place in a relatively favorable atmospheric environment while passing over detrimental oceanic conditions, dominated by the presence of a cold-core eddy. The passages of two prior typhoons apparently intensified the cold-core eddy, contributing to a major role of eddy feedback on RW for Francisco. The structural changes in Francisco accompanying eddy interaction are characterized by a substantially enlarged eye size, which evolved from ~20 to ~100 km in diameter, as indicated from satellite images. Numerical simulations suggest that the eddy is prominent in weakening the intensity of Francisco during the storm–eddy interaction, with its role less significant but still comparable to that of the cold wake. Both the cooler water and stronger upward motion in the eddy lead to a larger sea surface temperature decrease induced by Francisco, which results in a nearly 50% decrease of surface enthalpy flux, suppressed convective bursts, and a 50% reduction in latent heat release. These results underscore the potential importance of open-ocean, cold-core eddies in contributing to the RW of tropical cyclones.

Mesoscale Processes during the Genesis of Hurricane Karl (2010)

Abstract Observations from the Pre-Depression Investigation of Cloud Systems in the Tropics (PREDICT), Genesis and Rapid Intensification Processes (GRIP), and Intensity Forecast Experiment (IFEX) field campaigns are analyzed to investigate the mesoscale processes leading to the tropical cyclogenesis of Hurricane Karl (2010). Research aircraft missions provided Doppler radar, in situ flight level, and dropsonde data documenting the structural changes of the predepression disturbance. Following the pre-Karl wave pouch, variational analyses at the meso-β and meso-α scales suggest that the convective cycle in Karl alternately built the low- and midlevel circulations leading to genesis episodically rather than through a sustained lowering of the convective mass flux from increased stabilization. Convective bursts that erupt in the vorticity-rich environment of the recirculating pouch region enhance the low-level meso-β- and meso-α-scale circulation through vortex stretching. As the convection wanes, the resulting stratiform precipitation strengthens the midlevel circulation through convergence associated with ice microphysical processes, protecting the disturbance from the intrusion of dry environmental air. Once the column saturation fraction returns to a critical value, a subsequent convective burst below the midlevel circulation further enhances the low-level circulation, and the convective cycle repeats. The analyses suggest that the onset of deep convection and associated low-level spinup were closely related to the coupling of the vorticity and moisture fields at low and midlevels. Our interpretation of the observational analysis presented in this study reaffirms a primary role of deep convection in the genesis process and provides a hypothesis for the supporting role of stratiform precipitation and the midlevel vortex.

Sensitivity of Hurricane Intensity and Structure to Two Types of Planetary Boundary Layer Parameterization Schemes in Idealized HWRF Simulations

ABSTRACT This paper investigates the sensitivity of simulated hurricane intensity and structure to two planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes in the Hurricane Weather and Research Forecast model including 1) the GFS scheme (control run) that uses the K-profile method to parameterize turbulent fluxes, and 2) the MYJ scheme that is based on turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) budget for turbulent closure. Idealized simulations with these two PBL schemes show that the storm in the TKE run is stronger than that in the control run after three days into simulation. Multi-scale structures are evaluated and compared between the control and the TKE runs prior to the divergence of the model-simulated intensity to elucidate the mechanism underlying such a difference in the intensity between the two runs. It is found that the storm in the TKE run has i) a shallower boundary layer with a stronger PBL inflow, ii) stronger boundary layer convergence closer to the storm center, iii) higher vorticity and inertial stability inside the RMW; iv) stronger and deeper updrafts in regions further inward from the radius of maximum wind (RMW), and v) more convective bursts located near the RMW as compared to the control run. Angular momentum budget analysis suggests that the convergence of angular momentum in the boundary layer is much stronger in the TKE run than in the control run, which is responsible for faster spin-up of the hurricane vortex in the TKE run.

The Relationship between Convective Bursts and Warm-Core Intensification in a Nonhydrostatic Simulation of Typhoon Lionrock (2016)

Abstract Typhoon Lionrock (2016) was unusual among tropical cyclones (TCs) in that it formed east of the monsoon gyre in the western North Pacific, and moved counterclockwise. It rapidly intensified in the monsoon gyre in an environment of weak upper-tropospheric winds and vertical wind shear. This study used a 3-km mesh nonhydrostatic model to examine the warm-core intensification of Typhoon Lionrock, which was associated with cyclone-scale vigorous convection [i.e., convective bursts (CBs)]. The simulation reproduced the multiple CBs at intervals of 1 day or shorter, which were related to the diurnal cycles and other short time-scale variations in the TC convection. Each CB tended to precede peak temperature anomalies near the TC center by 0–12 h, indicating that the warm-core intensification occurred due to diabatic heating released by the vigorous eyewall convection. Notably, updrafts due to convection during the intensification phase were stronger than those occurring during the mature and decay phases, and the maximum temperature anomaly of the upper-tropospheric warm core rapidly increased during eyewall formation. In addition, this study indicated that most of the asymmetric inner-core vigorous convection associated with CBs, which was induced by the vertical wind shear, contributed to the warm-core intensification. Furthermore, the budget analysis of potential temperature within the TC inner core showed that adiabatic heating due to subsidence from near the tropopause within the eye, often following CBs, was essential in developing the eye. The lag correlation suggested the lag time between the CBs and the subsidence within the eye was 3–9 h.

Convective Bursts Episode of the Rapidly Intensified Typhoon Mujigae (2015)

Convective burst (CB) characteristics at distinct stages of a rapidly intensified Typhoon Mujigae (2015), are investigated based on a 72-h simulation. The spatial features show that almost all CB elements develop in the eyewall. The number of CBs in the inner-core region within a 100 km radius——which account for a large proportion of the total CBs, with a sharp increase about 6 h before the onset of rapid intensification (RI)——provides some indication of the RI of the typhoon. The CBs during pre-RI and RI are examined from dynamic and thermodynamic viewpoints. The combination of lower-level convergent inflow and upper-level divergent outflow pushes a relay-race-like transmission of convective activity, favorable for the development of deep convection. A double warm-core structure is induced by the centripetal outflow sinking and warming associated with CBs, which directly accelerates RI by a sudden decrease in hydrostatic pressure. By utilizing the convection activity degree (CAD) index derived from the local total energy anomaly, a correlation formula between CBs and CAD is deduced. Furthermore, an intense CAD (ICAD) signal threshold (with a value equal to 100) to predict CBs is obtained. It is verified that this ICAD threshold is effective for estimating the occurrence of a CB episode and predicting RI of a typhoon. Therefore, this threshold may be a valuable tool for identifying CB episodes and forecasting rapidly intensified typhoons.