Convective Activity Research Articles

Effect of quasi‐biennial oscillation on the intensity of the South China Sea summer monsoon

AbstractThe interannual relationship between the quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO) and the South China Sea (SCS) summer monsoon intensity (SCSSMI) is investigated using the ERA5 data set in the period of 1953–2020. The QBO–SCSSMI connection is weak in El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO)‐related summer, but significant in neutral ENSO summer. In neutral ENSO summer, there is significant positive correlation between QBO and SCSSMI, that is, the SCSSMI is enhanced in the QBO westerly phase, while it is weakened in the QBO easterly phase with larger amplitude of the SCSSMI anomaly. QBO may modulate the SCSSMI in three possible ways. The QBO‐related temperature anomalies downward to the lower stratosphere directly affect the SCS monsoon convection by modulating the upper‐tropospheric stability and tropopause height over the SCS region. Moreover, the QBO‐related anomalous zonal wind downward to the lower stratosphere may regulate cross‐tropopause vertical wind shear and then modulate the convection development. Besides, the QBO‐related zonal wind and temperature signals propagating downward into the upper troposphere can affect the horizontal divergence by influencing the vertical vorticity and the geopotential via thermal forcing. Through those three processes, QBO directly affects the deep convection activities and then modulates the SCSSMI via internal dynamic adjustment. In the southern SCS, cross‐tropopause vertical wind shear makes a main contribution to deep convections, while upper‐tropospheric static stability makes a major contribution to deep convection in the northern SCS. The conclusions are also generally verified by the CMIP6 model simulation.

The effects of gravity waves on ozone over the Tibetan Plateau

The ozone valley over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) has an important effect on global weather and climate. As a significant source of atmospheric gravity waves (GWs), TP is also a key area of global stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE), yet the exploration of the causes of low ozone values over the TP has been scarce from the perspective of GW. In this paper, we used the hyperspectral Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) data to extract GWs and deep convection over the TP and analyzed the statistical characteristics of ozone for corresponding events. The results show that: (1) The GWs observed by AIRS mainly occur in the mid-latitude region, with a maximum frequency of >10%, and their intensity varies with longitude. Three large-value regions have been identified on the coast of Southeast Asia, Central America, and Central Africa. (2) Most deep convection occurs in the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), with three large value centers in the East Asian monsoon region, Central America and Central Africa. Among them, the Indian monsoon region, the Northwest Pacific region to the east of the Philippines, and the western side of the South China Sea (SCS) are the large-value areas within the East Asian monsoon region, with the maximum occurrence frequency exceeding 15%. (3) TP is a region with a large frequency of convective gravity waves. In most areas of the southern foothills of the TP, the frequency of GWs related to convection is 30%–50%. Almost all deep convection over the TP and its adjacent areas are accompanied by GWs, with a frequency of 60–90%. (4) The composite analysis results show that the occurrence of GWs or deep convection is accompanied by negative anomalies of ozone in most areas of the southern foothills of the TP, indicating a decrease in the integrated column amount of ozone. (5) By analyzing the anomaly distribution of meteorological elements such as cloud fraction, cloud top height, tropopause height, and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), the results show a dual effect in the presence of GWs or deep convection. The effect involves not only an increased generation of clouds, conducive to convection but also elevated cloud top height, promoting the formation of high clouds, some even beyond the tropopause. In addition, the occurrence of GW or deep convection can also affect the tropopause height, strengthen convective activity, and facilitate the upward transfer of low-concentration ozone from the lower layer to the upper layer, thereby causing a decrease in the integrated column amount of ozone.

Diversity of Lagged Relationships in Global Means of Surface Temperatures and Radiative Budgets for CMIP6 piControl Simulations

Abstract Radiative feedbacks over interannual time scales can be potentially useful for global warming estimation. However, the diversity of the lead–lag relationships in global mean surface temperature (GMST) and net radiation flux at the top of the atmosphere (GMTOA) create uncertainty during the estimation of radiative feedbacks. In this study, key physical processes controlling lead–lag relationships were elucidated by categorizing preindustrial control simulations of CMIP6 into three groups based on cross correlation values of GMTOA against GMST at lag 0 and lag +1 year. The diversity in the lead–lag relationships was primarily caused by the climatological state difference of the atmosphere over the equatorial Pacific, which modulated the strength of convective activity and sensitivity of low-level clouds. Diminished atmospheric stability caused enhanced convective activity, more efficient energy release, and smaller lags. In addition, enhanced stability in the lower atmosphere rendered the low-level clouds more sensitive to sea surface temperature changes and considerably delayed the radiative response. The climatological state difference of the atmosphere resulted from model-inherent atmospheric conditions. These findings suggest that the diversity of lead–lag relationships of GMST and GMTOA over interannual time scales could represent the characteristics of general atmospheric circulation models and possible solutions of the actual atmosphere, which could also affect long-term feedback features.

Climatology and trends of cirrus geometrical and optical properties in the Amazon region from 7-yr of CALIPSO observations

Recent studies have shown that the presence of cirrus clouds in the Amazon is higher than in other tropical regions, but also that convective activity in the region is decreasing, which could mean a decrease in high clouds. We used data from 2009 to 2016 from Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP), aboard Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO), to study cirrus over the Amazon. Here we report on an analysis of the frequency of occurrence, base and top altitude, geometric thickness, and optical depth for the whole Amazon, as well as their spatial distribution and medium-term trends. A total of 1,473,863 vertical profiles were analyzed containing 728,123 cirrus layers, being 37.0% in the wet and 21.2% in the dry season. They are evenly distributed throughout the region during the wet season and concentrated in the northwest of the Amazon during the dry season. In terms of cloud optical depth (COD), most cirrus were optically thin (0.03<COD<0.3), with a relative frequency of 43.9%, while subvisual (COD<0.03) and thick (COD>0.3) corresponded to 22.0 and 34.1%, respectively. The results indicate a significant reduction in the frequency of cirrus occurrence of 1.3 ± 0.3% per year in the wet season, accompanied by a reduction of the geometric thickness of the thickest cirrus by 57 ± 18 m. This corroborates previous reports of a reduction of convective activity and high cloud fraction in the region.

The Effects of African Easterly Wave Suppression by Wave Track on Atlantic Tropical Cyclones

AbstractIt is well established that African easterly waves (AEWs) can serve as seedling disturbances for Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs). However, research has shown that AEWs are not necessary to maintain specifically basin‐wide TC frequency. Here, we for the first time investigate the effects of AEW suppression by wave track on Atlantic TC activity. Regional model simulations were performed, where AEWs were either prescribed or suppressed from the eastern lateral boundary condition. We found that without AEWs, there was an increase in TC frequency and strength, with the most pronounced increases occurring when the waves were suppressed in the south track. These changes coincided with more favorable environmental conditions and disturbances associated with increased convective activity over the Atlantic. Our results indicate that AEWs are not a limiting factor for TCs, and that AEW suppression, specifically in the south track, can affect the large‐scale environment to enhance favorability for TC genesis.

Convective tropopause over the tropics: Climatology, seasonality, and inter-annual variability inferred from long-term FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC-1 RO data

The present study aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of the convective tropopause height (COTH) and temperature (COT-T) over the tropics using long-term radio occultation (RO) measurements from the Formosa Satellite Mission 3–Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere and Climate (FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC) from July 2006 to December 2018. The study reveals that the COT-H (COT-T) exhibits a significant longitudinal structure with a maximum (minimum) over the Western Pacific and two secondary maxima (minima) over the American and African regions. The seasonal cycles of COT-H and COT-T are also prominent, with higher and colder values over the Western Pacific in boreal winter and over the Indian region in boreal summer. This seasonality in COT-H and COT-T is consistent with the seasonal process of tropical convective activity and is explained by outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data. The correlation analysis shows that COT-H (COT-T) is negatively (positively) correlated with OLR, with the highest correlation found in the Indian region. Additionally, the study investigates the relationship between COT-H (COT-T) and upper tropospheric water vapor (UTWV) over the various regions in the tropics. Over the Indian region, the COT-H (COT-T) exhibits a positive (negative) correlation with UTWV, while over the Western Pacific, American, and African regions, it displays a negative (positive) correlation. Finally, the spatial distribution of the convective tropopause in El Niño and La Niña winters was examined. Results show that the COT-H (COT-T) is higher (lower) over the central and eastern Pacific Ocean and lower (higher) over the maritime continent during El Niño compared with La Niña.

Coherent amplification of the Okhotsk high, Korean trough, and northwestern Pacific subtropical high during heavy rainfall over Japan in August 2021

In August 2021, rain front stagnation in Japan resulted in prolonged and disastrous rainfall across the entire country. During the heavy rainfall period, the large-scale atmospheric field over the East Asian–western North Pacific region was characterized by meridional tripolar circulation anomalies: the Okhotsk high (OH), the trough over the Korean Peninsula (Korean trough), and the northwestern Pacific subtropical high (NWPSH). Simultaneously, tropical convective activity was enhanced over the eastern Indian Ocean and suppressed over the tropical western–central Pacific. This study investigates the dynamic mechanism of linkage of the extratropical tripolar anomalies and the effects of tropical convective modulation using a reanalysis dataset, a cutoff low detection scheme, the potential vorticity inversion method, and numerical experiments. Upper-tropospheric blocking over eastern Siberia connected to the surface OH is conducive to the stagnation of synoptic depressions, including cutoff lows and troughs, over the Korean Peninsula, contributing to the development and maintenance of the quasi-stationary Korean trough. Rossby waves emanating from the Korean trough excite an anticyclonic anomaly over the northwestern Pacific. This upper-level anomalous anticyclone acts to enhance the surface NWPSH through zonal heat transport, accompanied by a northward tilting structure with height. Simultaneously, the tropical intraseasonal oscillation is amplified over the Indo–western Pacific Ocean sector under the negative-phase Indian Ocean dipole and multi-year La Niña conditions. The combination of enhanced convection over the eastern Indian Ocean and suppressed convection across the tropical western–central Pacific reinforces the NWPSH. The anomalous circulation associated with the extratropical tripolar pattern and concurrent tropical heat forcing causes more moisture transport, convergence, and anomalous ascent, which contribute to heavy rainfall in Japan. These results suggest that the dynamically correlated amplification of tropical and extratropical circulation anomalies plays a crucial role in precipitation variability in East Asia.

Interannual variations of westward extension area of western Pacific subtropical high and its relationship with precipitation in East Asia

The western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) is viewed as an important part of the East Asian summer monsoon system and its western boundary location significantly affects regional weather and climate. Based on characteristics of the WPSH western boundary in boreal summer, this study proposes a new index of WPSH, the westward extension area (WEA) index, defined as the area enclosed by the 587 dagpm contour in the region (10°–50°N, 105°–130°E), which can reasonably describe the area variations of WPSH when approaching and landing coastal regions. Compared with the canonical area index of WPSH, the WEA index can more effectively represent the WPSH-associated atmospheric circulation, water vapor transport, and convective activities in the boreal-summer East Asia-northwestern Pacific. A big WEA index significantly indicates flood in the middle reaches of Yangtze River basin and drought in South China. The WEA of WPSH has a significant connection with precipitation in Maritime Continent, due to the convection-circulation interaction in Philippine Sea. There, the WPSH-related sea surface temperature (SST) cooling and rainfall deficiency can excite Rossby waves, which induces the anomalous anticyclone development and the westward stretching and intensifying of WPSH that in turn further reduces rainfall in Philippine Sea. Moreover, the WEA index is significantly modulated by the preceding El Niño-type and tropical Indian Ocean SST anomalies, which may provide a highly predictable indicator of the continental precipitation in East Asia.

Assessing Memory in Convection Schemes Using Idealized Tests

AbstractTwo assumptions commonly applied in convection schemes—the diagnostic and quasi‐equilibrium assumptions—imply that convective activity (e.g., convective precipitation) is controlled only by the large‐scale (macrostate) environment at the time. In contrast, numerical experiments indicate a “memory” or dependence of convection also on its own previous activity whereby subgrid‐scale (microstate) structures boost but are also boosted by convection. In this study we investigated this memory by comparing single‐column model behavior in two idealized tests previously executed by a cloud‐resolving model (CRM). Conventional convection schemes that employ the diagnostic assumption fail to reproduce the CRM behavior. The memory‐capable org and Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique Zoom cold pool schemes partially capture the behavior, but fail to fully exhibit the strong reinforcing feedbacks implied by the CRM. Analysis of this failure suggests that it is because the CRM supports a linear (or superlinear) dependence of the subgrid structure growth rate on the precipitation rate, while the org scheme assumes a sublinear dependence. Among varying versions of the org scheme, the growth rate of the org variable representing subgrid structure is strongly associated with memory strength. These results demonstrate the importance of parameterizing convective memory, and the ability of idealized tests to reveal shortcomings of convection schemes and constrain model structural assumptions.

The evolution of deep convective systems and their associated cirrus outflows

Abstract. Tropical deep convective clouds, particularly their large cirrus outflows, play an important role in modulating the energy balance of the Earth's atmosphere. Whilst the cores of these deep convective clouds have a significant short-wave (SW) cooling effect, they dissipate quickly. Conversely, the thin cirrus that flow from these cores can persist for days after the core has dissipated, reaching hundreds of kilometres in extent. These thin cirrus have a potential for large warming in the tropics. Understanding the evolution of air parcels from deep convection, clouds along these trajectories, and how they change in response to anthropogenic emissions is therefore important to understand past and future climate change. This work uses a novel approach to investigate the evolution of tropical convective clouds by introducing the concept of “time since convection” (TSC). This is used to build a composite picture of the lifecycle of air parcels from deep convection. Cloud properties are a strong function of TSC, showing decreases in the optical thickness, cloud-top height, and cloud fraction over time, thereby driving the latitudinal structure of cloudiness. After an initial dissipation of the convective core, changes in thin cirrus cloud amount were seen beyond 200 h from convection. Changes in cloud are shown to be a strong function of TSC and not simply reflective of latitudinal changes as air moves from the tropics to the extratropics. Finally, in the initial stages of convection there was a large net negative cloud radiative effect (CRE). However, once the convective core had dissipated, the sign of the CRE flipped and there was a sustained net warming CRE beyond 120 h from the convective event. Changes are present in the cloud properties long after the main convective activities have dissipated, signalling the need to continue further analysis at longer timescales than previously studied.

The influence of intraseasonal oscillations on rainfall variability over Central Africa: case of the 25–70 days variability

The influence of intra-seasonal oscillations (ISO) on rainfall in Central Africa (CA) during the March–May (MAM) season is assessed using the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Center daily gridded rainfall data. ISO indices are defined using the time series analysis of the first two principal components resulting from the empirical orthogonal function, applied to daily filtered outgoing longwave radiation. Based on these indices, a total of 71 strong Intraseasonal Events (SIEs) and 66 weak Intraseasonal Events (WIEs) were selected using threshold method. The results show that SIEs are associated with enhanced rainfall conditions over almost all the study area, while WIEs provide a meridional dipole-like rainfall pattern, consisting of increasing precipitation in the western part and decreasing in the eastern part of CA. The relationship with Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) was also examined. The positive rainfall anomalies associated with MJO phases progress eastward and are modulated by the 850 and 200 hPa horizontal wind. The circulation, linked to geopotential height anomalies at lower layers, tends to strengthen (reduce) the convective activity over the region during extreme ISO events and for the MAM season throughout the study period. Uncentered pattern correlation was further used to assess the link between ISO and MJO phases during the MAM season and we found a correlation of 0.5 in precipitation anomalies between phases 1 and 2 of the MJO and the SIEs; − 0.4 and − 0.6 between phases 5 and 6 and the SIEs respectively, suggesting a strong relationship between ISO events and MJO.

Role of Quasi-Biennial oscillation on the link between sudden stratospheric warming and tropical weather events

This paper illustrates the modulation of meteorological parameters over the tropics in the east and west phases of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) during the sudden stratospheric warming (SSW). Twenty years composite of SSW episodes have been analysed, and the results show a teleconnection between northern polar SSW and changes in meteorological parameters throughout tropical troposphere to stratosphere during both the phases of QBO. The tropical troposphere shows different temperature pattern in the two opposite phases of QBO during polar SSW. The lower tropospheric temperature decreases about five days prior to the onset day, persisting as such as for about five days post-onset day, and increases rapidly during the east phase whereas a sudden dip in temperature is observed in the west phase. The easterly wind at the upper tropospheric region is observed to be coupled to the easterly wind in the QBO core region of stratosphere during the easterly phase of QBO whereas they are decoupled in the westerly phase. Prior to the peak polar warming, a strong convective cell develops over the southern hemispheric tropics, and a convective cell develops over northern hemisphere during the peak warming period. This study indicates that during the easterly QBO-SSW period, increasing tropopause easterly wind causes tropopause cooling due to easterly wind's coupling with the QBO core region around the onset day of SSW. As a result, the changes in the tropopause strengthen the Hadley cell circulation thus enhancing the convective activity over the tropical region associated with northern polar SSW. Contrary to the prior knowledge of convection being centred mostly along 5°S–10°S, it is found that other convection band located at around 10°N also produces rainfall in the tropical region.

Deep Learning–Based Summertime Turbulence Intensity Estimation Using Satellite Observations

Abstract Turbulence is what we want to avoid the most during flight. Numerical weather prediction (NWP) model–based methods for diagnosing turbulence have offered valuable guidance for pilots. NWP-based turbulence diagnostics show high accuracy in detecting turbulence in general. However, there is still room for improvements such as capturing convectively induced turbulence. In such cases, observation data can be beneficial to correctly locate convective regions and help provide corresponding turbulence information. Geostationary satellite data are commonly used for upper-level turbulence detection by utilizing its water vapor band information. The Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES)-16 carries the Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI), which enables us to observe further down into the atmosphere with improved spatial, temporal, and spectral resolutions. Its three water vapor bands allow us to observe different vertical parts of the atmosphere, and from its infrared window bands, convective activity can be inferred. Such multispectral information from ABI can be helpful in inferring turbulence intensity at different vertical levels. This study develops U-Net based machine learning models that take ABI imagery as inputs to estimate turbulence intensity at three vertical levels: 10–18, 18–24, and above 24 kft (1 kft ≈ 300 m). Among six different U-Net-based models, U-Net3+ model with a filter size of three showed the best performance against the pilot report (PIREP). Two case studies are presented to show the strengths and weaknesses of the U-Net3+ model. The results tend to be overestimated above 24 kft, but estimates of 10–18 and 18–24 kft agree well with the PIREP, especially near convective regions. Significance Statement Turbulence is directly related to aviation safety as well as cost-effective aircraft operation. To avoid turbulence, turbulence diagnostics are calculated from numerical weather prediction (NWP) model outputs and are provided to pilots. The goal of this study is to develop a satellite data–driven machine learning model that estimates turbulence intensity in three different vertical layers to provide additional information along with the NWP-based turbulence diagnostics. Validation results against pilot reports show that the machine learning model performs comparable to NWP-based turbulence diagnostics. Furthermore, results with different channel selections reveal that using multiple water vapor channels can help extract additional information for estimating turbulence intensity at lower levels.

ResU‐Deep: Improving the Trigger Function of Deep Convection in Tropical Regions With Deep Learning

AbstractModeling deep convection accurately in tropical regions is important. However, biases remain in current trigger functions. To alleviate the overestimation of frequency and wrong depiction of the diurnal cycle, we propose a deep convection trigger function, ResU‐Deep, based on the framework of U‐net with three modifications to better suit the problem of deep convection identification: (a) adding the upsampling process into the encoder part, (b) replacing the double convolution block with a residual‐convolutional block, and (c) adding a dynamic weight into the loss function. Thirty‐three environmental variables within tropical regions are used in ResU‐Deep, including 31 features from ECMWF atmospheric reanalysis (ERA5) data set, and two historical convection fields. Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission 3B42 data set is used as the precipitation observation. Central America, North Africa, South and East Asia, and West Pacific Ocean within 0°∼30°N are selected as the study regions for the high frequency of deep convection activities. ResU‐Deep, incorporating the surrounding information, is separately trained and evaluated in four regions and has the F1‐scores of 58%, 53%, 60%, and 63% for the occurrence, outperforming the single‐column‐based machine learning methods. Also, a unified model has similar performance in four regions. Further comparisons are made with convective available potential energy‐based trigger functions in Southern Great Plains. Results show that ResU‐Deep can capture the trends and peaks of diurnal cycles on complex terrains in large regions. According to feature importance test, the contribution levels of environmental features are different in four regions, indicating the model can learn the mechanisms of deep convection in specific region, thus improving the prediction accuracy.

The Hydro-ABC model (Version 2.0): a simplified convective-scale model with moist dynamics

Abstract. The prediction of convection (in terms of position, timing, and strength) is important to achieve for high-resolution weather forecasting. This problem requires not only good convective-scale models, but also data assimilation systems that give initial conditions which neither improperly hinder nor improperly hasten convection in the ensuing forecasts. Solving this problem is difficult and expensive using operational-scale numerical weather prediction systems, and so a simplified model of convective-scale flow is under development (called the “ABC model”). This paper extends the existing ABC model of dry convective-scale flow to include mixing ratios of vapour and condensate phases of water. The revised model is called “Hydro-ABC”. Hydro-ABC includes transport of the vapour and condensate mixing ratios within a dynamical core, and it transitions between these two phases via a micro-physics scheme. A saturated mixing ratio is derived from model quantities, which helps determine whether evaporation or condensation happens. Latent heat is exchanged with the buoyancy variable (ABC's potential-temperature-like variable) in such a way to conserve total energy, where total energy is the sum of dry energy and latent heat. The model equations are designed to conserve the domain-total mass, water, and energy. An example numerical model integration is performed and analysed, which shows the development of a realistic looking anvil cloud and excitation of inertio-gravity and acoustic modes over a wide range of frequencies. This behaviour means that Hydro-ABC is a sufficiently challenging model which will allow experimentation with innovative data assimilation strategies in future work. An ensemble of Hydro-ABC integrations is performed in order to study the possible forecast error covariance statistics (knowledge of which is necessary for data assimilation). These show patterns that are dependent on the presence of convective activity (at any model's vertical column), thus giving a taste of flow-dependent error statistics. Candidate indicators/harbingers of convection are also evaluated (namely relative humidity, hydrostatic imbalance, horizontal divergence, convective available potential energy, convective inhibition, vertical wind, and the condensate mixing ratio), some of which appear to be reliable diagnostics concerning the presence of convection. These diagnostics will be useful in the selection of the relevant forecast error covariance statistics when data assimilation for Hydro-ABC is developed.

Unusual Magnetospheric Dynamics During Intense Substorm Initiated by Strong Magnetospheric Compression

AbstractWe investigate an unusual sequence and peculiar features of magnetotail changes during a storm‐range substorm initiated by the interplanetary shock. Auroral observations and measurements at several favorably distributed magnetospheric spacecraft allowed the construction of an adaptive time‐dependent magnetospheric model to quantitatively characterize the configurational changes and mapping variations. Several passages of low‐altitude spacecraft in polar orbits near midnight help reveal the magnetic configuration of the nightside tail‐dipole transition region. In this event, an intense auroral and convection activity (accompanied by an up to 1,500 nT increase in the SuperMag AL‐index index) emerged in the highly compressed magnetosphere after the passage of interplanetary shock followed by strongly southward interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). This directly driven phase of the activity continued for an hour and resulted in the formation of a hybrid magnetic configuration with dipolarized midtail and stretched field lines in the transition region. Observations of energetic particle isotropy boundary latitudes near midnight are consistent with the modeled magnetic configuration. In concert with a downward turn of the solar wind (SW) flow, and weakening of the IMF driver and convection, an unusual stretching signature of the inner magnetosphere magnetic field was observed as close as at r ∼ 5 to 7 Re; which resulted mostly from an increasing downward tilt of the thin azimuthal current. Classic substorm breakup signatures commenced at fairly low, ∼60° magnetic latitude, deep in the closed field line region, in association with the current sheet upward motion. It was followed by strong stepwise poleward auroral expansion. We discuss how these signatures deviate from standard substorm scenarios and may be potentially imparted by the aforementioned changes in SW flow direction and pressure.

Overturning in the subpolar North Atlantic: a review.

The Overturning in the Subpolar North Atlantic Program (OSNAP) was initiated in the spring of 2010 through a collaborative effort involving the USA, the UK, Germany, the Netherlands and Canada. A key feature of OSNAP is a trans-basin observing system deployed in the summer of 2014 for the continuous measure of volume, heat and freshwater fluxes in the subpolar North Atlantic. This review focuses on advancements made possible by the collective OSNAP observations. Chief among those advancements is the quantification of the dominant role of the eastern subpolar North Atlantic in the production of dense waters that reside in the lower limb of the overturning: the Irminger and Iceland basins contributed approximately three times as much dense water compared with the Labrador Sea over the observational period. Other advancements include elucidation of the relationship between convective activity in the basin interior and boundary current anomalies; the spread of overflow waters in the subpolar region; the seasonality of the meridional volume, heat and freshwater fluxes; and the challenges involved in designing a simpler, less costly observing system. Collectively, OSNAP measurements are laying a framework on which to assess the overturning circulation's vulnerability to continued warming and freshening as climate change continues apace. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Atlantic overturning: new observations and challenges'.

Understanding the soil water dynamics during excess and deficit rainfall conditions over the core monsoon zone of India

Observations of soil moisture (SM) during excess and deficit monsoon seasons between 2000 to 2021 present a unique opportunity to understand the soil water dynamics (SWD) over core monsoon zone (CMZ) of India. This study aims to analyse SWD by investigating the SM variability, SM memory (SMM), and the coupling between surface and subsurface SM levels. Particularly intriguing are instances of concurrent monsoonal extremes, which give rise to complex SWD patterns. Usually, it is noted that a depleted convective activity and persistence of higher temperatures during the pre-monsoon season leads to lower SM, while monsoon rains and post-monsoon showers support the prevalence of higher SM conditions. The long persistent dry spells during deficit monsoon years enhances the Bowen ratio (BR) due to the high sensible heat fluxes. On the other hand, the availability of large latent heat flux during excess monsoon and post-monsoon seasons tend to decrease the BR. This enhancement or reduction in BR is due to evapotranspiration (ET), which influences the SWD by modulating the surface—subsurface SM coupling. The surface and subsurface SM coupling analysis for CMZ exhibits significant distinction in the evolution of wet and dry extremes. SM variations and persistence time scale is used as an indicator of SMM, and analysed for both surface and subsurface SM observation levels. Evidently, subsurface SM exhibits remarkably prolonged memory timescales, approximately twice that of surface SM. Furthermore, we dissect SWD linked to wet and dry extremes by analysing annual soil water balance at a local site in Pune, India. Our findings reveal that ET and deep drainage on annual scale are modulated largely by number of break events during the monsoon season. In essence, our study underscores the significance of surface–subsurface SM observations in unravelling the intricate tapestry of SWD.

Variations of Pre-monsoon season related atmospheric parameters over Kakinada region

Pre-monsoon showers occur before the beginning of the rainy season. From the months of March to May, they take place, and can be anything from little drizzles to powerful thunderstorms. March, April and May are known as the pre-monsoon season (PRMS). The precipitation patterns recorded in PRMS are critical because they have an impact on a wide range of crop-related operations across the country. During PRMS, the maximum temperature (TMAX), minimum temperature (TMIN), soil moisture, relative humidity, latent heat, convective available potential energy (CAPE), and total precipitable water (TPW) were analysed at Kakinada region. These variables were collected using daily ERA5 reanalysis data for the PRMS from 1981 to 2021. Studying the convection-related characteristics over the Kakinada station during the PRMS was our goal. During the study period, the five years with the highest PRMS rainfall were 1990, 1995, 2008, 2010 and 2016 and the five years with the lowest rainfall were 1990, 1995, 2008, 2010 and 2016. In the months leading up to the monsoon, the Kakinada station experiences CAPE values between 1000 and 6000 J/kg, while TPW values are between 25 and 60 mm. The PRMS values for CAPE and TPW both show that the prerequisites for moderate to severe convection activity have been fulfilled. TPW, soil moisture, relative humidity, and CAPE parameters during PRMS were well estimated using the ARMA and ARIMA models.

Revisiting the effect of increasing horizontal resolution on the evolution of El Niño in a coupled model

The ENSO (El Niño southern oscillation) in the tropical Pacific plays a crucial role in regulating the Indian summer monsoon. Many mechanisms have been proposed to explain the positive and negative feedback associated with the ENSO through air-sea interaction in the tropical Pacific. Historical run data at varying oceanic and atmospheric resolutions from the MPI-ESM model is analyzed and compared with observations to determine the possible reasons for the much earlier onset and delayed withdrawal of ENSO in the coupled model. Increasing the resolution of the oceanic and atmospheric components of the coupled model helps in well-resolving the annual cycle of sea surface temperature in the tropical Pacific. There is a significant improvement in the early onset and late withdrawal of El Niño in the coupled model with increasing horizontal resolution of the model components. The weak subsurface propagation along the 20 °C isotherm in the equatorial Pacific improves on increasing the horizontal resolution of the coupled model. Similar to observations, there is a clear eastward extension of convection, 20° east of the dateline, in the equatorial tropical Pacific in the coupled model during ENSO years. Increasing the resolution of the oceanic and atmospheric components of the coupled model improves the simulation of convective activity over the western Pacific along with the improved magnitude of anomalous zonal wind strength during El Niño years. However, the presentation of convective activity over the equatorial Pacific deteriorated on increasing atmospheric resolution further to T255 due to the enhanced value of the interannual amplitude of intraseasonal zonal wind around the international dateline. Also, the coupled model does not capture the accurate eastward propagation of the Madden Julian Oscillation envelope over the western Pacific. While higher resolutions showed improvement in the representation of El Niño events in terms of their number and duration, challenges persisted in accurately capturing the frequency of these events and their related triggering mechanisms. Understanding the intricate interplay of factors influencing the evolution of El Niño requires further research and progress in modeling strategies.