Contrail Cirrus Research Articles

Regional and seasonal impact of hydrogen propulsion systems on potential contrail cirrus cover

The decarbonization of air transportation requires novel propulsion concepts in order to replace fossil kerosene powered gas turbines. Within various options, H2 based propulsion is one of the most promising candidates, at least for regional and short haul routes. However, despite the potential to reduce CO2 emissions to zero, those aircraft can still have a significant climate impact due to increased contrail formation caused by higher water emission when using H2 as a propellant. In order to understand potential changes in the climate impact of H2 powered air traffic, it is crucial to evaluate how the potential for contrail formation and the potential contrail cirrus cover would change under representative atmospheric conditions. To this end, we developed a tool which uses several years of meteorological reanalysis data (ERA-5 and MERRA-2) in combination with contrail formation conditions adjusted to H2 gas turbine and H2 Fuel Cell propulsion in order to investigate their regional and seasonal variation. Contrail formation conditions for three different propulsion settings (kerosene gas turbine, H2 gas turbine and H2 fuel cell) are calculated to obtain global statistics of potential contrail cover and potential contrail cirrus cover over 12 years. For H2 based propulsion contrails are more likely to form due to the increased water vapor emission. However, this does not necessarily translate into the climatically relevant potential for contrail cirrus formation. Focusing on three hot spots of regional air traffic, we find that the difference between kerosene and H2 scenarios has a strong systematic dependency on season, altitude and latitude. Maximum differences in potential contrail cirrus cover are found in the transition region from typically no-contrail to contrail forming conditions at a potential contrail cover around 50%. In contrast, less to no difference in potential contrail cirrus cover is found at very high (close to 100%) or rather low potential contrail cover. This study demonstrates, that the question whether H2 powered air traffic produces more climate relevant contrail cirrus can not be parameterized by a simple factor but rather strongly depends on the propulsion type, season, region and flight altitude.

An Empirical Parameterization of the Subgrid‐Scale Distribution of Water Vapor in the UTLS for Atmospheric General Circulation Models

AbstractTemperature and water vapor are known to fluctuate on multiple scales. In this study 27 years of airborne measurements of temperature and relative humidity from In‐service Aircraft for a Global Observing System (IAGOS) are used to parameterize the distribution of water vapor in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. The parameterization is designed to simulate water vapor fluctuations within gridboxes of atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) with typical size of a few tens to a few hundred kilometers. The distributions currently used in such models are often not supported by observations at high altitude. More sophisticated distributions are key to represent ice supersaturation, a physical phenomenon that plays a major role in the formation of natural cirrus and contrail cirrus. Here the observed distributions are fitted with a beta law whose parameters are adjusted from the gridbox mean variables. More specifically the standard deviation and skewness of the distributions are expressed as empirical functions of the average temperature and specific humidity, two typical prognostic variables of AGCMs. Thus, the distribution of water vapor is fully parameterized for a use in these models. The new parameterization reproduces the observed distributions with a determination coefficient always greater than 0.917 and with a mean value of 0.997. The parameterization is robust to a selection of various geographical subsets of data and to gridbox sizes varying between 25 and 300 km.

Understanding the role of contrails and contrail cirrus in climate change: a global perspective

Understanding the role of contrails and contrail cirrus in climate change: a global perspective

Assessing the Environmental Impact of Aircraft/Engine Integration with Respect to Contrails

Abstract In recent years, the radiative forcing of aircraft contrails and aircraft-induced contrail cirrus have been highlighted as a serious short-term climate impact of the aviation industry. Greater understanding of factors influencing contrail properties are required if routes to mitigation are to be explored. In the current work, a parametric turbofan powered aircraft model has been created to study the impact that aircraft design, in particular the interaction between the jet and wingtip vortex, can have on ice crystal formation, growth, and dynamics within a contrail. To investigate this, a contrail microphysics module has been developed and integrated within Rolls-Royce in-house Hydra CFD code. Three-dimensional Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes simulations are conducted over the jet and early vortex regime, covering an area which is often simplified in most contrail modelling approaches. It is found that the position of the engine along the wing of an aircraft can impact the formation of the wingtip vortex, altering the contrail properties and distribution downstream of the aircraft. The effect of multi-engine architecture is also assessed and shown to influence the magnitude of exhaust entrainment into the vortex.

How well can persistent contrails be predicted? An update

Abstract. The total aviation effective radiative forcing is dominated by non-CO2 effects. The largest contributors to the non-CO2 effects are contrails and contrail cirrus. There is the possibility of reducing the climate effect of aviation by avoiding flying through ice-supersaturated regions (ISSRs), where contrails can last for hours (so-called persistent contrails). Therefore, a precise prediction of the specific location and time of these regions is needed. But a prediction of the frequency and degree of ice supersaturation (ISS) on cruise altitudes is currently very challenging and associated with great uncertainties because of the strong variability in the water vapour field, the low number of humidity measurements at the air traffic altitude, and the oversimplified parameterisations of cloud physics in weather models. Since ISS is more common in some dynamical regimes than in others, the aim of this study is to find variables/proxies that are related to the formation of ISSRs and to use these in a regression method to predict persistent contrails. To find the best-suited proxies for regressions, we use various methods of information theory. These include the log-likelihood ratios, known from Bayes' theorem, a modified form of the Kullback–Leibler divergence, and mutual information. The variables (the relative humidity with respect to ice, RHiERA5; the temperature, T; the vertical velocity, ω; the divergence, DIV; the relative vorticity, ζ; the potential vorticity, PV; the normalised geopotential height, Z; and the local lapse rate, γ) come from ERA5, and RHiM/I, which we assume as the truth, comes from MOZAIC/IAGOS (Measurement of Ozone and Water Vapour on Airbus In-service Aircraft/In-service Aircraft for a Global Observing System; commercial aircraft measurements). It turns out that RHiERA5 is the most important predictor of ice supersaturation, in spite of its weaknesses, and all other variables do not help much to achieve better results. Without RHiERA5, a regression to predict ISSRs is not successful. Certain modifications of RHiERA5 before the regression (as suggested in recent papers) do not lead to improvements of ISSR prediction. Applying a sensitivity study with artificially modified RHiERA5 distributions points to the origin of the problems with the regression: the conditional distributions of RHiERA5 (conditioned on ISS and non-ISS, from RHiM/I) overlap too heavily in the range of 70 %–100 %, so for any case in that range, it is not clear whether it belongs to an ISSR or not. Evidently, this renders the prediction of contrail persistence very difficult.

Global aviation contrail climate effects from 2019 to 2021

Abstract. The current best-estimate of the global annual mean radiative forcing (RF) attributable to contrail cirrus is thought to be 3 times larger than the RF from aviation's cumulative CO2 emissions. Here, we simulate the global contrail RF for 2019–2021 using reanalysis weather data and improved engine emission estimates along actual flight trajectories derived from Automatic Dependent Surveillance–Broadcast telemetry. Our 2019 global annual mean contrail net RF (62.1 mW m−2) is 44 % lower than current best estimates for 2018 (111 [33, 189] mW m−2, 95 % confidence interval). Regionally, the contrail net RF is largest over Europe (876 mW m−2) and the USA (414 mW m−2), while the RF values over East Asia (64 mW m−2) and China (62 mW m−2) are close to the global average, because fewer flights in these regions form persistent contrails resulting from lower cruise altitudes and limited ice supersaturated regions in the subtropics due to the Hadley Circulation. Globally, COVID-19 reduced the flight distance flown and contrail net RF in 2020 (−43 % and −56 %, respectively, relative to 2019) and 2021 (−31 % and −49 %, respectively) with significant regional variations. Around 14 % of all flights in 2019 formed a contrail with a net warming effect, yet only 2 % of all flights caused 80 % of the annual contrail energy forcing. The spatiotemporal patterns of the most strongly warming and cooling contrail segments can be attributed to flight scheduling, engine particle number emissions, tropopause height, and background radiation fields. Our contrail RF estimates are most sensitive to corrections applied to the global humidity fields, followed by assumptions on the engine particle number emissions, and are least sensitive to radiative heating effects on the contrail plume and contrail–contrail overlapping. Using this sensitivity analysis, we estimate that the 2019 global contrail net RF could range between 34.8 and 74.8 mW m−2.

Water extraction in aero gas turbines for contrail mitigation

Abstract Water vapour and particles in aero engine exhaust can give rise to condensation trails (contrails) in the wake of aircrafts, and recent studies suggest that persistent contrails and contrail cirrus account for circa 50% of the total aviation-derived radiative forcing (RF). The Schmidt-Appleman criterion is widely used to qualitatively predict the formation of contrails. The criterion indicates that the formation of contrails is affected by both aero engine exhaust and ambient air conditions and can therefore provide the theoretical basis to devise contrail mitigation strategies and further allows quantitative assessment of these strategies. This work focuses on water extraction from the aircraft engine exhaust for contrail mitigation. The fuel water emission index ( ${\rm{E}}{{\rm{I}}_{{{\rm{H}}_2}{\rm{O}}}}$ ) is one of the key factors that determines whether persistent contrails form or not. It indicates the amount of water produced for every kg of fuel burnt. Research has indicated that water extraction from the exhaust of the aero engine has been considered for Nitrogen oxides (NOx) reduction, but not for contrail mitigation. Assuming that water extraction is indeed possible, the emphasis of this work will therefore be on understanding how much water is needed to be extracted for contrail mitigation depending on the altitude and the relative humidity (RH), with the aim to carry out a meaningful study on the mitigation of persistent contrails and contrail cirrus to enable a fast and considerable reduction in aviation-derived RF.

Radiative Effect of Two Contrail Cirrus Outbreaks Over Western Europe Estimated Using Geostationary Satellite Observations and Radiative Transfer Calculations

AbstractEstimation of the perturbation to the Earth's energy budget by contrail outbreaks is required for estimating the climate impact of aviation and verifying the climate benefits of proposed contrail avoidance strategies such as aircraft rerouting. Here we identified two successive large‐scale contrail outbreaks developing in clear‐sky conditions in geostationary and polar‐orbiting satellite infrared images of Western Europe lasting from 22–23 June 2020. Their hourly cloud radiative effect, obtained using geostationary satellite cloud retrievals and radiative transfer calculations, is negative or weakly positive during daytime and positive during nighttime. The cumulative energy forcing of the two outbreaks is 7 PJ and −8.5 PJ, with uncertainties of 3 PJ, stemming each from approximately 15–20 flights over periods of 19 and 7 hr, respectively. This study suggests that an automated quantification of contrail outbreak radiative effect is possible, at least for contrails forming in clear sky conditions.

Addressing Confidence in Modeling of Contrail Formation from E-Fuels in Aviation Using Large Eddy Simulation Parametrization

As it becomes increasingly necessary to reduce aviation-related emissions, condensation trails present an additional challenge. These are arguably responsible for the largest contribution to radiative forcing in the sector, but the phenomenon is still not as well understood as those involving other agents. The present study employs a large eddy simulation (LES) parametrization to validate a previously developed contrail model in order to assess the feasibility of a multi-model approach to increase confidence in simulations of contrail cirrus formation. Subsequently, the computational model was used to analyze the impact of e-fuels in contrail dynamics, resulting in reductions of over 7% and 14%, respectively, in average contrail lifetime and optical depth, with such improvements increasing if higher blending limits are utilized. This confirmed the potential for e-fuels as the most viable option for near-future large-scale implementations among all sustainable aviation fuel alternatives.

Feasibility of contrail avoidance in a commercial flight planning system: an operational analysis

Aircraft condensation trails, also known as contrails, contribute a substantial portion of aviation’s overall climate footprint. Contrail impacts can be reduced through smart flight planning that avoids contrail-forming regions of the atmosphere. While previous studies have explored the operational impacts of contrail avoidance in simulated environments, this paper aims to characterize the feasibility and cost of contrail avoidance precisely within a commercial flight planning system. This study leverages the commercial Flightkeys 5D algorithm, developed by Flightkeys GmbH, with a prototypical contrail forecast model based on the Contrail Cirrus Prediction (CoCiP) model to simulate contrail avoidance on 49 411 flights during the first two weeks of June 2023, and 35 429 flights during the first two weeks of January 2024. The utilization of a commercial flight planning system enables high-accuracy estimates of additional cost and fuel investments by operators to achieve estimated reductions in contrail-energy forcing and overall flight global warming potential. The results show that navigational contrail avoidance will require minimal additional cost (0.08%) and fuel (0.11%) investments to achieve notable reductions in contrail climate forcing (−73.0%). This simulation provides evidence that contrail mitigation entails very low operational risks, even regarding fuel. This study aims to serve as an incentive for operators and air traffic controllers to initiate contrail mitigation testing as soon as possible and begin reducing aviation’s non- CO2 emissions.

Jet aircraft lubrication oil droplets as contrail ice-forming particles

Abstract. The radiative characteristics and lifetimes of contrails are dependent on the number concentration of ice-forming particles in the engine exhaust plume. Aircraft gas turbine engines produce a variety of particles, yet it is understood that non-volatile black carbon aggregates are the dominant source of ice-forming particles with typical, fossil-derived jet fuel. However, with cleaner combustion technologies and the adoption of alternative fuels (e.g. hydrogen or synthetic aviation fuel), non-volatile black carbon particle emissions are expected to decrease or even be eliminated. Under these conditions, contrail properties will depend upon the concentration and characteristics of particles other than black carbon. Ultrafine (< 100 nm) jet lubrication oil droplets constitute a significant fraction of the total organic particulate matter released by aircraft; however, their ability to form contrail ice crystals has hitherto been unexplored. In this work, we experimentally investigate the activation and freezing behaviour of lubrication oil droplets using an expansion chamber, assessing their potential as ice-forming particles. We generate lubrication oil droplets with a geometric mean mobility diameter of (100.9 ± 0.6) nm and show that these activate to form water droplets, which subsequently freeze when the temperature is below ∼ 235 K. We find that nucleation on lubrication oil droplets should be considered in future computational studies – particularly under soot-poor conditions – and that these studies would benefit from particle size distribution measurements at cruise altitude. Overall, taking steps to reduce lubrication oil number emissions would help reduce the climate impact of contrail cirrus.

Radiative effect of thin cirrus clouds in the extratropical lowermost stratosphere and tropopause region

Abstract. Cirrus clouds play an important role in the radiation budget of the Earth; nonetheless, the radiative effect of ultra-thin cirrus clouds in the tropopause region and in the lowermost stratosphere remains poorly constrained. These clouds have a small vertical extent and optical depth and are frequently neither observed even by sensitive sensors nor considered in climate model simulations. In addition, their short-wave (cooling) and long-wave (warming) radiative effects are often in approximate balance, and their net effect strongly depends on the shape and size of the cirrus particles. However, the CRyogenic Infrared Spectrometers and Telescopes for the Atmosphere instrument (CRISTA-2) allows ultra-thin cirrus clouds to be detected. Here we use CRISTA-2 observations in summer 1997 in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes together with the Suite Of Community RAdiative Transfer codes based on Edwards and Slingo (SOCRATES) radiative transfer model to calculate the radiative effect of observed ultra-thin cirrus. Using sensitivity simulations with different ice effective particle size and shape, we provide an estimate of the uncertainty in the radiative effect of ultra-thin cirrus in the extratropical lowermost stratosphere and tropopause region during summer and – by extrapolation of the summer results – for winter. Cloud top height and ice water content are based on CRISTA-2 measurements, while the cloud vertical thickness was predefined to be 0.5 or 2 km. Our results indicate that if the ice crystals of these thin cirrus clouds are assumed to be spherical, their net cloud radiative effect is generally positive (warming). In contrast, assuming aggregates or a hexagonal shape, their net radiative effect is generally negative (cooling) during summer months and very likely positive (warming) during winter. The radiative effect is in the order of ±(0.1–0.01) W m−2 for a realistic global cloud coverage of 10 %, similar to the magnitude of the contrail cirrus radiative forcing (of ∼ 0.1 W m−2). The radiative effect is also dependent on the cloud vertical extent and consequently the optically thickness and effective radius of the particle size distribution (e.g. effective radius increase from 5 to 30 µm results in a factor ∼ 6 smaller long- and short-wave effects, respectively). The properties of ultra-thin cirrus clouds in the lowermost stratosphere and tropopause region need to be better observed, and ultra-thin cirrus clouds need to be evaluated in climate model simulations.

Sensitivity of cirrus and contrail radiative effect on cloud microphysical and environmental parameters

Abstract. Natural cirrus clouds and contrails cover about 30 % of the Earth's mid-latitudes and up to 70 % of the tropics. Due to their widespread occurrence, cirrus clouds have a considerable impact on the Earth energy budget, which, on average, leads to a warming net radiative effect (solar + thermal infrared). However, whether the instantaneous radiative effect (RE), which in some cases corresponds to a radiative forcing, of natural cirrus or contrails is positive or negative depends on their microphysical, macrophysical, and optical properties, as well as the radiative properties of the environment. This is further complicated by the fact that the actual ice crystal shape is often unknown, and thus, ice clouds remain one of the components that are least understood in the Earth's radiative budget. The present study aims to investigate the dependency of the effect on cirrus RE on eight parameters, namely solar zenith angle, ice water content, ice crystal effective radius, cirrus temperature, surface albedo, surface temperature, cloud optical thickness of an underlying liquid water cloud, and three ice crystal shapes. In total, 283 500 plane-parallel radiative transfer simulations have been performed, not including three-dimensional scattering effects. Parameter ranges are selected that are typically associated with natural cirrus and contrails. In addition, the effect of variations in the relative humidity profile and the ice cloud geometric thickness have been investigated for a sub-set of the simulations. The multi-dimensionality and complexity of the eight-dimensional parameter space makes it impractical to discuss all potential configurations in detail. Therefore, specific cases are selected and discussed. For a given parameter combination, the largest impact on solar, thermal-infrared (TIR), and net RE is related to the ice crystal effective radius. The second most important parameter is ice water content, which equally impacts the solar and terrestrial RE. The solar RE of cirrus is also determined by solar zenith angle, surface albedo, liquid cloud optical thickness, and ice crystal shape (in descending priority). RE in the TIR spectrum is dominated by surface temperature, ice cloud temperature, liquid water cloud optical thickness, and ice crystal shape. Net RE is controlled by surface albedo, solar zenith angle, and surface temperature in decreasing importance. The relative importance of the studied parameters differs, depending on the ambient conditions. Furthermore, and during nighttime the net RE is equal to the TIR RE. The data set generated in this work is publicly available. It can be used as a lookup table to extract the RE of cirrus clouds, contrails, and contrail cirrus instead of full radiative transfer calculations.

Differences in microphysical properties of cirrus at high and mid-latitudes

Abstract. Despite their proven importance for the atmospheric radiative energy budget, the effect of cirrus on climate and the magnitude of their modification by human activity is not well quantified. Besides anthropogenic pollution sources on the ground, aviation has a large local effect on cirrus microphysical and radiative properties via the formation of contrails and their transition to contrail cirrus. To investigate the anthropogenic influence on natural cirrus, we compare the microphysical properties of cirrus measured at mid-latitude (ML) regions (<60∘ N) that are often affected by aviation and pollution with cirrus measured in the same season in comparatively pristine high latitudes (HLs; ≥60∘ N). The number concentration, effective diameter, and ice water content of the observed cirrus are derived from in situ measurements covering ice crystal sizes between 2 and 6400 µm collected during the CIRRUS-HL campaign (Cirrus in High Latitudes) in June and July 2021. We analyse the dependence of cirrus microphysical properties on altitude and latitude and demonstrate that the median ice number concentration is an order of magnitude larger in the measured mid-latitude cirrus, with 0.0086 cm−3, compared to the high-latitude cirrus, with 0.001 cm−3. Ice crystals in mid-latitude cirrus are on average smaller than in high-latitude cirrus, with a median effective diameter of 165 µm compared to 210 µm, and the median ice water content in mid-latitude cirrus is higher (0.0033 g m−3) than in high-latitude cirrus (0.0019 g m−3). In order to investigate the cirrus properties in relation to the region of formation, we combine the airborne observations with 10 d backward trajectories to identify the location of cirrus formation and the cirrus type, i.e. in situ or liquid origin cirrus, depending on whether there is only ice or also liquid water present in the cirrus history, respectively. The cirrus formed and measured at mid-latitudes (M–M) have a particularly high ice number concentration and low effective diameter. This is very likely a signature of contrails and contrail cirrus, which is often observed in the in situ origin cirrus type. In contrast, the largest effective diameter and lowest number concentration were found in the cirrus formed and measured at high latitudes (H–H) along with the highest relative humidity over ice (RHi). On average, in-cloud RHi was above saturation in all cirrus. While most of the H–H cirrus were of an in situ origin, the cirrus formed at mid-latitudes and measured at high latitudes (M–H) were mainly of liquid origin. A pristine Arctic background atmosphere with relatively low ice nuclei availability and the extended growth of few nucleated ice crystals may explain the observed RHi and size distributions. The M–H cirrus are a mixture of the properties of M–M and H–H cirrus (preserving some of the initial properties acquired at mid-latitudes and transforming under Arctic atmospheric conditions). Our analyses indicate that part of the cirrus found at high latitudes is actually formed at mid-latitudes and therefore affected by mid-latitude air masses, which have a greater anthropogenic influence.

A Python library for computing individual and merged non-CO2 algorithmic climate change functions: CLIMaCCF V1.0

Abstract. Aviation aims to reduce its climate effect by adopting trajectories that avoid regions of the atmosphere where aviation emissions have a large impact. To that end, prototype algorithmic climate change functions (aCCFs) can be used, which provide spatially and temporally resolved information on aviation's climate effect in terms of future near-surface temperature change. These aCCFs can be calculated with meteorological input data obtained from, e.g., numerical weather prediction models. We present here the open-source Python library called CLIMaCCF, an easy-to-use and flexible tool which efficiently calculates both the individual aCCFs (i.e., aCCF of water vapor, nitrogen oxide (NOx)-induced ozone production and methane depletion, and contrail cirrus) and the merged non-CO2 aCCFs that combine all these individual contributions. To construct merged aCCFs all individual aCCFs are converted to the same physical unit. This unit conversion needs the technical specification of aircraft and engine parameters, i.e., NOx emission indices and flown distance per kilogram of burned fuel. These aircraft- and engine-specific values are provided within CLIMaCCF version V1.0 for a set of aggregated aircraft and engine classes (i.e., regional, single-aisle, wide-body). Moreover, CLIMaCCF allows the user to choose from a range of physical climate metrics (i.e., average temperature response for pulse or future scenario emissions over the time horizons of 20, 50, or 100 years). Finally, we demonstrate the abilities of CLIMaCCF through a series of example applications.

Investigating an indirect aviation effect on mid-latitude cirrus clouds – linking lidar-derived optical properties to in situ measurements

Abstract. Aviation has a large impact on the Earth's atmosphere and climate by various processes. Line-shaped contrails and contrail cirrus clouds lead to changes in the natural cirrus cloud cover and have a major contribution to the effective radiative forcing from aviation. In addition, aviation-induced aerosols might also change the microphysical properties and optical properties of naturally formed cirrus clouds. Latter aerosol–cloud interactions show large differences in the resulting effective radiative forcing, and our understanding on how aviation-induced aerosols affect cirrus cloud properties is still poor. Up to now, observations of this aviation-induced aerosol effect have been rare. In this study, we use combined airborne lidar and in situ ice cloud measurements to investigate differences in the microphysical and optical properties of naturally formed cirrus clouds, which formed in regions that are highly affected by aviation-induced aerosol emissions and, of those, which formed in regions rather unaffected by aviation. Urbanek et al. (2018) showed that those cirrus clouds, which are more affected by aviation-induced soot emission, are characterized by larger values of the particle linear depolarization ratio (PLDR). In this follow-on study we relate collocated lidar measurements performed aboard HALO during the ML-CIRRUS mission of the particle linear depolarization ratio with in situ cloud probe measurements of the number concentration and effective diameter of the ice particles. In situ measurements for both cloud types (high-PLDR-mode – aviation-affected – and low-PLDR-mode – pristine – cirrus) can be reliably compared in a temperature range between 210 and 215 K. Within this temperature range we find that high-PLDR-mode cirrus clouds tend to show larger effective ice particle diameters with a median value of 61.4 compared to 50.7 µm for low-PLDR-mode pristine cirrus clouds. Larger effective ice particles in aviation-influenced (high-PLDR-mode) cirrus are connected to lower ice particle number concentration with a median value of 0.05 compared to 0.11 cm−3 (low-PLDR-mode), which evolved in more pristine regions with only little impact from aviation. We suspect that a suppression of homogeneous ice formation by the heterogeneously freezing soot aerosol particles included in the areas affected by air traffic is the cause of the reduced ice crystal concentrations.

Toward Elimination of Soot Emissions from Jet Fuel Combustion.

Soot from jet fuel combustion in aircraft engines contributes to global warming through the formation of contrail cirrus clouds that make up to 56% of the total radiative forcing from aviation. Here, the elimination of such emissions is explored through N2 injection (containing 0-25 vol % O2) at the exhaust of enclosed spray combustion of jet fuel that nicely emulates aircraft soot emissions. It is shown that injecting N2 containing 5 vol % of O2 enhances the formation of polyaromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) that adsorb on the surface of soot. This increases soot number density and volume fraction by 25 and 80%, respectively. However, further increasing the O2 concentration to 20 or 25 vol % enhances oxidation and nearly eliminates soot emissions from jet fuel spray combustion, reducing the soot number density and volume fraction by 87.3 or 95.4 and 98.3 or 99.6%, respectively. So, a judicious injection of air just after the aircraft engine exhaust can drastically reduce soot emissions and halve the radiative forcing due to aviation, as shown by soot mobility, X-ray diffraction, Raman spectroscopy, nitrogen adsorption, microscopy, and thermogravimetric analysis (for the organic to total carbon ratio) measurements.

Liquid Hydrogen: A Mirage or Potent Solution for Aviation's Climate Woes?

The aviation industry faces a formidable challenge to cap its climate impact in the face of continued growth in passengers and freight. Liquid hydrogen (LH2) is one of the alternative jet fuels under consideration as it does not produce carbon dioxide upon combustion. We conducted a well-to-wake life cycle assessment of CO2 emissions and non-CO2 climate change impacts per passenger-distance for 17 different hydrogen production routes, as well as conventional jet fuel and biofuels. Six other environmental and health impact categories were also considered. The Boeing 787-800 was used as the reference aircraft, and a range of flight distances were explored. Contrail cirrus contributes around 81 ± 31% of the combustion climate impacts for LH2, compared to 32 ± 7% for conventional jet fuel, showing that research is needed to reduce uncertainty in the case of LH2. The life cycle impacts of the two dominant commercial LH2 pathways are on average 8 and 121% larger than conventional jet fuel. Some novel LH2 pathways do show considerable potential for life cycle climate impact reductions versus conventional fuel (up to -205 ± 78%). LH2 from renewable energy is not climate neutral, though, at best -67 ± 10% compared to conventional over the life cycle.

Predicting the climate impact of aviation for en-route emissions: the algorithmic climate change function submodel ACCF 1.0 of EMAC 2.53

Abstract. Using climate-optimized flight trajectories is one essential measure to reduce aviation's climate impact. Detailed knowledge of temporal and spatial climate sensitivity for aviation emissions in the atmosphere is required to realize such a climate mitigation measure. The algorithmic Climate Change Functions (aCCFs) represent the basis for such purposes. This paper presents the first version of the Algorithmic Climate Change Function submodel (ACCF 1.0) within the European Centre HAMburg general circulation model (ECHAM) and Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy) Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model framework. In the ACCF 1.0, we implement a set of aCCFs (version 1.0) to estimate the average temperature response over 20 years (ATR20) resulting from aviation CO2 emissions and non-CO2 impacts, such as NOx emissions (via ozone production and methane destruction), water vapour emissions, and contrail cirrus. While the aCCF concept has been introduced in previous research, here, we publish a consistent set of aCCF formulas in terms of fuel scenario, metric, and efficacy for the first time. In particular, this paper elaborates on contrail aCCF development, which has not been published before. ACCF 1.0 uses the simulated atmospheric conditions at the emission location as input to calculate the ATR20 per unit of fuel burned, per NOx emitted, or per flown kilometre. In this research, we perform quality checks of the ACCF 1.0 outputs in two aspects. Firstly, we compare climatological values calculated by ACCF 1.0 to previous studies. The comparison confirms that in the Northern Hemisphere between 150–300 hPa altitude (flight corridor), the vertical and latitudinal structure of NOx-induced ozone and H2O effects are well represented by the ACCF model output. The NOx-induced methane effects increase towards lower altitudes and higher latitudes, which behaves differently from the existing literature. For contrail cirrus, the climatological pattern of the ACCF model output corresponds with the literature, except that contrail-cirrus aCCF generates values at low altitudes near polar regions, which is caused by the conditions set up for contrail formation. Secondly, we evaluate the reduction of NOx-induced ozone effects through trajectory optimization, employing the tagging chemistry approach (contribution approach to tag species according to their emission categories and to inherit these tags to other species during the subsequent chemical reactions). The simulation results show that climate-optimized trajectories reduce the radiative forcing contribution from aviation NOx-induced ozone compared to cost-optimized trajectories. Finally, we couple the ACCF 1.0 to the air traffic simulation submodel AirTraf version 2.0 and demonstrate the variability of the flight trajectories when the efficacy of individual effects is considered. Based on the 1 d simulation results of a subset of European flights, the total ATR20 of the climate-optimized flights is significantly lower (roughly 50 % less) than that of the cost-optimized flights, with the most considerable contribution from contrail cirrus. The CO2 contribution observed in this study is low compared with the non-CO2 effects, which requires further diagnosis.

Upper-tropospheric slightly ice-subsaturated regions: frequency of occurrence and statistical evidence for the appearance of contrail cirrus

Abstract. Microphysical, optical, and environmental properties of contrail cirrus and natural cirrus were investigated by applying a new, statistically based contrail–cirrus separation method to 14.7 h of cirrus cloud measurements (sampling frequency 1 Hz, max. ∼ 290 m s−1, total length of sampled in-cloud space ∼ 15 000 km) during the airborne campaign ML-CIRRUS in central Europe and the northeast Atlantic flight corridor in spring 2014. We find that pure contrail cirrus appears frequently at the aircraft cruising altitude (CA) range with ambient pressure varying from 200 to 245 hPa. It exhibits a higher median ice particle number concentration (Nice), a smaller median mass mean radius (Rice), and lower median ice water content (IWC) (median: Nice=0.045 cm−3, Rice=16.6 µm, IWC = 3.5 ppmv), and it is optically thinner (median extinction coefficient Ext = ∼ 0.056 km−1) than the cirrus mixture of contrail cirrus, natural in situ-origin and liquid-origin cirrus found around the CA range (median: Nice=0.038 cm−3, Rice=24.1 µm, IWC = 8.3 ppmv, Ext = ∼ 0.096 km−1). The lowest and thickest cirrus, consisting of a few large ice particles, are identified as pure natural liquid-origin cirrus (median: Nice=0.018 cm−3, Rice=42.4 µm, IWC = 21.7 ppmv, Ext = ∼ 0.137 km−1). Furthermore, we observe that, in particular, contrail cirrus occurs more often in slightly ice-subsaturated instead of merely ice-saturated to supersaturated air as often assumed, thus indicating the possibility of enlarged contrail cirrus existence regions. The enlargement is estimated, based on IAGOS long-term observations of relative humidity with respect to ice (RHice) aboard passenger aircraft, to be approximately 10 % for Europe and the North Atlantic region, with the RHice threshold for contrail cirrus existence decreased from 100 % to 90 % RHice and a 4 h lifetime of contrail cirrus in slight ice subsaturation assumed. This increase may not only lead to a non-negligible change in contrail cirrus coverage and radiative forcing, but also affect the mitigation strategies of reducing contrails by rerouting flights.