Continuous Population Research Articles

Real-time forecast of hurricane-induced damage risk to envelope systems of engineered buildings through metamodeling

The growing intensity and frequency of extreme wind events, together with the continued economic and population growth of coastal areas, has created an urgent need for methodologies that can inform emergency responders and managers of the increasing risk to the infrastructure of these areas. To this end, this work outlines a real-time risk forecast framework for hurricane-induced damage to building envelope systems of engineered buildings. Damage is quantified through a recently introduced multi-demand and coupled progressive fragility model, with a full range of uncertainty in structural properties, capacities, and wind stochasticity. To enable real-time assessment, an efficient Kriging metamodel is introduced to capture the damage statistics conditioned on intensity measures. From official real-time hurricane advisories, site-specific intensity measures are forecast based on a parametric wind field model while considering the uncertainty in, among others, the hurricane track, pressure deficit, and filling model. Damage risk is predicted through propagating uncertainty by Monte Carlo simulation through the Kriging metamodels calibrated to forecast intensity measures. For illustration, the real time damage risk of the envelope system of a 45-story building located in Miami, Fl, was estimated for hurricanes Matthew (2016), Irma (2017), and Dorian (2019). The efficiency and accuracy of the proposed framework is demonstrated.

Интеллектуальный анализ привлекательности муниципальных образований республики Башкортостан на основе сценарного прогнозирования и геоинформационных технологий

Socio-economic development of territories depends on many factors, one of which is the region population. Therefore, managing the migration flows is an important tool for solving various demographic, socio-economic and other problems. In recent years, the Republic of Bashkortostan has seen a continuous migration population outflow both to different regions of the Russian Federation and to other countries, which indicates that for the effective development of the territories it is necessary to regulate the region migration flows. To do this, it seems appropriate to increase the attractiveness level of the region municipalities. In this regard, this article is devoted to the intellectual analysis of the attractiveness of the Bashkortostan Republic municipalities based on scenario forecasting and geo information technologies, which will improve the decision-making efficiency in forming the Republic of Bashkortostan migration policy. In the study course, an analysis of existing approaches used in this subject area is carried out, a methodology for determining the attractiveness coefficient of municipalities is considered, and the results of predictive calculations of the region territory attractiveness are presented.

Gonadal Transcriptome Analysis and Sequence Characterization of Sex-Related Genes in Cranoglanis bouderius

In China, the Cranoglanis bouderius is classified as a national class II-protected animal. The development of C. bouderius populations has been affected by a variety of factors over the past few decades, with severe declines occurring. Considering the likelihood of continued population declines of the C. bouderius in the future, it is critical to investigate the currently unknown characteristics of gonadal differentiation and sex-related genes for C. bouderius conservation. In this study, the Illumina sequencing platform was used to sequence the gonadal transcriptome of the C. bouderius to identify the pathways and genes related to gonadal development and analyze the expression differences in the gonads. A total of 12,002 DEGs were identified, with 7220 being significantly expressed in the ovary and 4782 being significantly expressed in the testis. According to the functional enrichment results, the cell cycle, RNA transport, apoptosis, Wnt signaling pathway, p53 signaling pathway, and prolactin signaling pathway play important roles in sex development in the C. bouderius. Furthermore, the sequence characterization and evolutionary analysis revealed that AMH, DAX1, NANOS1, and AR of the C. bouderius are highly conserved. Specifically, the qRT-PCR results from various tissues showed significant differences in AMH, DAX1, NANOS1, and AR expression levels in the gonads of both sexes of C. bouderius. These analyses indicated that AMH, DAX1, NANOS1, and AR may play important roles in the differentiation and development of C. bouderius gonads. To our best knowledge, this study is the first to analyze the C. bouderius gonadal transcriptome and identify the structures of sex-related genes, laying the foundation for future research.

Spatio-Temporal Patterns of County Population Shrinkage and Influencing Factors in the North–South Transitional Zone of China

Population is the foundation of socio-economic development. However, continued population shrinkage has made the problem of unbalanced and insufficient regional development more prominent, threatening human well-being. How to solve the contradiction between population shrinkage and regional development has become an urgent scientific problem. Therefore, taking a typical underdeveloped mountainous region, the North-South Transitional Zone of China, as an example, we analyzed the spatial and temporal evolution of regional population shrinkage from 2000 to 2020, classified the types of regional population shrinkage, and revealed the key influencing factors and driving mechanisms for the formation of population shrinkage patterns in poor mountainous counties. The results showed that: (1) From 2000 to 2020, the number of counties in the North-South Transitional Zone of China with population shrinkage grew, and the degree of shrinkage increased. The shrinking counties were mainly municipal counties, and the shrinkage types were mainly continuous shrinkage and expansion followed by shrinkage. (2) Spatially, the shrinking counties had significant and strengthening spatial autocorrelation, with obvious characteristics of the contiguous shrinkage of county units, and the shrinkage center of gravity and shrinkage agglomeration areas showed an evolutionary trend of shifting from east to west. The shrinking counties had obvious divergence in both the "east-west" and "north-south" directions. (3) Natural factors had an endogenous rooting role, while human factors had a strong driving role, and the impact of different influencing factors varied significantly. (4) The formation and evolution of the spatial pattern of county population shrinkage was subject to the synergistic effect of natural factors and human factors. The interaction between natural and human factors had a non-linear enhancement effect and a two-factor enhancement effect. The results of this study are expected to provide a scientific basis for coordinating regional human-land relations in order to optimize population-flow governance and sustainable regional development in the North-South Transitional Zone and less-developed regions of China.

Effects of constructing farmland with large amounts of iron tailings as soil reconstruction materials on soil properties and crop growth

With continuous population growth and farmland decrease, the food security is seriously threatened. Farmland reclamation has been used as a means of raising the agricultural productivity and improving the ecological environment. However, the lack of reclaimed soil represents a serious problem. To verify the feasibility and effect of using large amounts of iron tailings to construct farmland, ten treatments (T1–T10) were designed to represent different soil profiles of regional normal farmland and constructed profiles using iron tailings. All treatments involving an iron tailings layer below topsoil exhibited higher soil water contents. The field capacity under T3 (20-cm iron tailings layer below cinnamon soil (b)) was 19.20% higher than that under T7 (20-cm red clay layer below cinnamon soil (b)), and the field capacity under T5 (20-cm iron tailings layer below cinnamon soil (a)) was 2.26% higher than that under T9 (20-cm red clay layer below cinnamon soil (a)). The soil water contents under T3 and T5 were almost the same as those under T7 and T9, respectively. The water-holding capacity of the 30-cm iron tailings layer (T6) was better than that of the 20-cm iron tailings layer (T2). Additionally, none of the treatments caused salt injury to maize. The maize height and stem thickness under the treatments employing iron tailings layers below topsoil were significantly greater than those in normal farmland; the maize height and stem thickness under T3 were 136.82% and 32.02% greater, respectively, than those under T7, and the values under T5 were 9.13% and 9.56% greater, respectively, than those under T9. The maize yields matched or even surpassed those in normal farmland, namely, the maize yield under T5 was equal to that under T9, and the maize yield under T3 was 12.69% higher than that under T7. In general, the application of an iron tailings layer below topsoil to construct farmland is a feasible and environmentally friendly way to realize sustainable farmland utilization and is beneficial to soil quality and crop yield improvement. Collectively, these results provide insight into the efficient utilization of iron tailings and environmental protection.

Quantification of Soil Deep Drainage and Aquifer Recharge Dynamics according to Land Use and Land Cover in the Basement Zone of Burkina Faso in West Africa

Groundwater is a vital water supply for local populations and ecosystems globally. With the continuous population growth, the anthropic pressure on groundwater is ever increasing, thus reducing the amount of available water resource. Yet, estimating the impact of anthropogenic activities on aquifer recharge is still a significant challenge for research, especially in basement aquifers. This study aims to improve the actual knowledge of deep drainage and deep aquifer recharge pathways and dynamics in the basement as affected by land use/land cover (LULC). The methodology used in this study accounted for hydraulic processes in soil layers within both unsaturated and saturated zones in an integrated approach. An experimental setup consisting of three (3) experimental plots, respectively under natural vegetation (NV), cropped millet (CM) and cropped groundnut (CG) on which deep drainage was monitored during the years 2020 and 2021. The results show significant differences between the LULC types after two years of implementation. Deep drainage is improved under CM and CG plots located in the central valley, as compared to the NV plot located in the ridge zone. Deep drainage is estimated at 8%, 24% and 25% of the annual rainfall, respectively for NV, CM and CG. The ratio between the recharge value obtained by the water table fluctuation (WTF) method and the deep drainage tends to 1 for the CM and CG plots, highlighting a rapid water transfer between unsaturated and saturated zones. The central valley, which seems to be a preferential recharge pathway, provides promising insights under specific conditions for the implementation of artificial recharge infrastructures.

Determining baselines and trends of Eastern chimpanzees and forest elephants in a Central African protected area after civil strife

Protected areas are crucial to safeguard Sub-Saharan Africa’s extraordinary and abundant megafauna. In many of these areas, instability has derailed conservation efforts and impeded adequate wildlife monitoring. Discovered in 2004, Eastern chimpanzees are found in the Central Uele Basin in northern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) within the Bili-Uéré Protected Areas Complex (BUPAC), the largest contiguous protected area in the country. BUPAC is threatened by habitat destruction, mining, wild meat trade, and insecurity. BUPAC chimpanzees are part of the largest remaining continuous population of the species in Africa; they are also being behaviourally unique. Forest elephants were frequent in the 1960′s in the BUPAC but have declined significantly up to 2004–2007. We used line transects to estimate Eastern chimpanzee and forest elephant density in the BUPAC core area in 2016 and 2019 and compared these with the 2004–2007 surveys. A total of 37 and 137 two km long line transects were systematically placed in 5,841 km2 and 6,176 km2 survey areas in 2016 and 2019, respectively. We found that chimpanzee density did not change during the two survey periods but indicators for forest elephant density decreased eight-fold. Human activities were detected mainly along the core area periphery in both survey years, where they overlapped with centres of animal activity. The stable high density of chimpanzees is a positive outcome for the core BUPAC. However, despite being a conservation priority area that has received relatively intensified protection, declining forest elephant numbers are likely to reflect the high number of human conflict hotspots in vicinity as well as the increasing human population density around the core area. We propose by elevating the core area to National Park whilst strengthening on the ground enforcement and management structures as well as legal measures against poaching might ensure the long-term survival of such an important area in Africa.

Induced pluripotent stem cells and cerebral organoids from the critically endangered Sumatran rhinoceros

Less than 80 Sumatran rhinos (SR, Dicerorhinus sumatrensis) are left on earth. Habitat loss and limited breeding possibilities are the greatest threats to the species and lead to a continuous population decline. To stop the erosion of genetic diversity, reintroduction of genetic material is indispensable. However, as the propagation rate of captive breeding is far too low, innovative technologies have to be developed. Induced pluripotent stem cells (iPSCs) are a powerful tool to fight extinction. They give rise to each cell within the body including gametes and provide a unique modality to preserve genetic material across time. Additionally, they enable studying species-specific developmental processes. Here, we generate iPSCs from the last male Malaysian SR Kertam, who died in2019, and characterize them comprehensively. Differentiation in cells of thethree germ layers and cerebral organoids demonstrate their high quality and great potential for supporting the rescue of this critically endangered species.

Empirical Examinations of Whether Rural Population Decline Improves the Rural Eco-Environmental Quality in a Chinese Context

Rural population has continually declined in response to the rapid urbanization process occurring in China, and the related negative socioeconomic impacts on rural development have attracted considerable attention from scholars. Currently, few studies have investigated the eco-environmental impact of rural population decline. By employing remote-sensing data, including land-use and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data, this study proposed a method based on the eco-environmental quality index (EQI) to measure the changes in the rural eco-environmental quality (REQ) at the prefectural level from 2000 to 2020. Then, we examined the impacts of rural population decline on REQ variations. We found that (1) most of the research units experienced continuous rural population decline during the research period, with the rural population density declining more than 25% from 2010 to 2020 in approximately half of the research units; (2) the REQ improved in most of the units, especially in the western region, but there were still many units that experienced a decline in the REQ, which were primarily concentrated in the coastal and central regions; (3) rural population decline improved the REQ, but its impacts varied regionally; and (4) rural population density, natural factors, and eco-environmental protection programs had significant influences on REQ variations. These findings may provide a reference for sustainable-development policies in rural China and other developing countries.

A Flashforward Look into Solutions for Fruit and Vegetable Production.

One of the most important challenges facing current and future generations is how climate change and continuous population growth adversely affect food security. To address this, the food system needs a complete transformation where more is produced in non-optimal and space-limited areas while reducing negative environmental impacts. Fruits and vegetables, essential for human health, are high-value-added crops, which are grown in both greenhouses and open field environments. Here, we review potential practices to reduce the impact of climate variation and ecosystem damages on fruit and vegetable crop yield, as well as highlight current bottlenecks for indoor and outdoor agrosystems. To obtain sustainability, high-tech greenhouses are increasingly important and biotechnological means are becoming instrumental in designing the crops of tomorrow. We discuss key traits that need to be studied to improve agrosystem sustainability and fruit yield.

Prediction of land use changes at a metropolitan city using integrated cellular automata: past and future

ABSTRACT In the cities of developing countries like India, rapid and uncontrolled urbanization has been taking place due to continuous population growth in last few decades. As a result, land use/land cover (LU/LC) is changing very fast in the cities of developing countries. Therefore, this study aims to examine the changes in LU/LC pattern in Delhi during 1991–2018 and simulate the future LU/LC pattern of Delhi for 2030. The LU/LC pattern mapping was done from Landsat datasets using k-means clustering technique. The cellular automata (CA) technique was integrated with artificial neural network (ANN) for simulating the future LU/LC patterns. The projected LU/LC pattern shows that Delhi’s built-up area will increase to nearly 60% of the total area of city, while cropland and open land will decrease to 19.86 and 0.15%, respectively. The highest increase in built-up area was observed in the northern, western, and south-western sub-districts of Delhi. Outcomes of the study may be used for future land use planning in Delhi and other cities. In addition, they can also provide valuable insights for the development of transportation network and other facilities and amenities in the areas of future urban expansion.

The evolution of the open science institutional repository at the Autonomous University of Carmen and recommendations for it is continued population

This paper presents the birth of the institutional repository of open science of the Autonomous University of Carmen called Runacar in February 2020 and its evolution to date. In this sense, throughout the implementation of the institutional repository in the University they have encountered a diversity of problems at the time of the population of the repository, on the one hand, by the integration of the resources of academic, scientific, technological and innovation information generated in the University, and on the other hand, the resources that integrate the professors-researchers of the University. Therefore, the methodology used and the recommendations for the continuous population of the institutional repository are evidenced, as well as to keep the appropriate metadata record for interoperability with the national repository and with the Mexican network of institutional repositories.

African wild dogs (Lycaon pictus) from the Kruger National Park, South Africa are currently not inbred but have low genomic diversity

African wild dogs (Lycaon pictus) have undergone severe population reductions and are listed as endangered on the International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List. Small, isolated populations have the potential to suffer from threats to their genetic diversity that may impact species viability and future survival. This study provides the first set of population-wide genomic data to address conservation concerns for this endangered species. Whole genome sequencing data were generated for 71 free-ranging African wild dogs from the Kruger National Park (KNP), South Africa, and used to estimate important population genomic parameters. Genomic diversity metrics revealed that variation levels were low; however, this African wild dog population showed low levels of inbreeding. Very few first- and second-order relationships were observed in this cohort, with most relationships falling into the third-order or distant category. Patterns of homozygosity could have resulted from historical inbreeding or a loss in genome variation due to a population bottleneck. Although the results suggest that this stronghold African wild dog population maintains low levels of inbreeding, likely due to their cooperative breeding system, it may lead to a continuous population decline when a reduced number of suitable mates are available. Consequently, the low genomic variation may influence species viability over time. This study highlights the importance of assessing population genomic parameters to set conservation priorities. Future studies should include the investigation of the potential of this endangered species to adapt to environmental changes considering the low genomic diversity in this population.

STUDY AND DESIGN OF DUAL UTILITY SPACE: STUDIO APARTMENT IN INDIAN CONTEXT

A multi-functional space can be described as a true integration of different functions in time and space. Indian cities face problems with continuous population growth, while human needs remain the same or increase. Urbanization growth and marketing prices force citizens to adapt themselves in smaller space. Compact living has always been proclaimed as a way of the future, but the future is now here and the cities are plagued by inadequate, uninviting city- living environments. The need of urban single - person households can be rectified by the introduction of studio apartments. The paper focuses on the three features as study of studio apartment, dual utility space and multifunctional furniture in Indian context. The aim and objectives of the study is to understand the scope of dual utility in small spaces like studio apartment with the help multifunctional furniture. The methodology of the study involves collection of primary and secondary data, primary data mainly focusing on the selection of two case studies in metro cities of India. Primary data deals with the relevance of standards and literature review. The study is concluded by designing a live space conceptualizing a studio apartment as a dual utility space and multifunctional furniture. Multifunctional space/multifunctional furniture forming space ,the chosen topic defines in this case is multipurpose usage of a particular area with different forms of multifunctional furniture used ,to justify or help the given area to achieve the purpose of ease and satisfy the demands required to be fulfilled. KEY WORDS: India, Urbanization, Dual utility, Multifunctional, Compact

On the feasibility of estimating contemporary effective population size (Ne) for genetic conservation and monitoring of forest trees

Estimates of contemporary effective population size (Ne) can provide valuable information for genetic conservation and monitoring, pinpointing populations at higher risk of genetic erosion, decreased fitness, maladaptation and, ultimately, demographic decline. There are however potential limitations in the application of commonly employed genetic estimators of contemporary Ne to widespread forest tree populations. Genetic isolation by distance within populations, small and spatially restricted samples, among-population gene flow and overlapping generations are factors that can potentially affect the accuracy of marker-based estimates of contemporary Ne, depending on the demographic scenario. In particular, we illustrate the uncertainty faced by forest researchers and managers when interpreting contemporary Ne estimates obtained for continuously distributed tree populations with large census size N. To that end, we use previously published genotypic data of 21 Pinus pinaster populations, including distinct sampling schemes, together with a widely used method based on linkage disequilibrium patterns observed in a single (one-time) population sample. We hypothesize that spatially restricted sampling might be the main putative factor behind the apparently low Ne/N estimates obtained for the large and continuously-distributed populations studied here. Because of its statistically-inherent assessment difficulty, we call for caution when interpreting marker-based estimates of contemporary Ne for monitoring widely-distributed tree populations or small genetic conservation units embedded within large continuous tree populations.

Agricultural Population Supported in Rural Areas under Traditional Planting Mode Based on Opportunity Cost Analysis

The return of rural migrant workers through increasing agricultural income by expanding farming scale is significant for rural sustainable development without rural population loss. This paper selected six representative counties in Henan Province, China’s major grain-producing province, to conduct a questionnaire survey, investigated the incomes of farmers from farming and migrant workers, calculated moderate farming scale under different opportunity costs, and also estimated the agricultural population that can be supported by arable land resources. Results are as follows: (1) Under the traditional planting mode, annual per capita income of farmers in farming was USD 342.18, which was substantially lower than USD 5255.63 in migrant workers. This huge income gap has led to continuous rural population loss. (2) Under the opportunity cost of farming income equal to migrant workers income, moderate farming scales of the six selected counties were 1.39, 1.17, 1.22, 1.08, 1.34, and 1.01 ha, respectively. Under the 0.8x and 0.6x opportunity cost, corresponding moderate farming scales were 1.11, 0.94, 1.11, 0.86, 1.07, and 1.34 ha; and 0.84, 0.70, 0.73, 0.65, 0.80 and 1.01 ha, respectively. (3) On the basis of the three moderate farming scales and status quo of arable land resources, agricultural populations that can be supported by rural Henan Province were 8.0386 million, 10.0479 million and 13.3942 million, respectively. Findings can guide the formulation of rural revitalization strategic measures and the preparation of village territorial spatial planning.

South Texas Water Resource Mental Models: A Systems Thinking, Multi‐stakeholder Case Study

AbstractThe Coastal Bend (CB), Lower Rio Grande Valley (LRGV), and Wintergarden (WG) subregions of south Texas co‐exist in similar socio‐economic contexts but rely on markedly different water sources (CB: precipitation; LRGV: surface water; WG: groundwater). This has led to unique agricultural practices and municipal policies and reinforced mental models adapted specifically to each subregion, both of which are critical to understanding structural causes behind current water use and future water sustainability. To better stakeholder mental models in each subregion, semi‐structured interviews were conducted with individuals with a significant stake in water resource use and management. Results indicated near unanimous consensus among farmers and other stakeholders that water supply is limited and will be increasingly stressed under continued urban population growth. Farmers expressed concern that it will become more difficult to continue farming if additional water resources are not available, while each subregion expressed their own unique concerns: growing bureaucratic oversight and growing population problems (CB), lack of inflows, poor water quality, and international disputes with Mexico (LRGV), and political subdivision, declining groundwater levels, and information technology costs (WG). Mental models were synthesized based on dominant themes expressed by respondents; we synthesized these into two systems thinking archetypes: Tragedy of the Commons and Success to the Successful. Though it is unreasonable to create blanket region‐wide policies, the adoption of under‐utilized conservation practices coupled to stakeholder outreach remains unexplored leverage points, given most stakeholders are unaware of the feedback processes continuing to threaten south Texas water resources.

Student Satisfaction Pilot Experience With Synchronous Classroom Live Streaming Styles During the COVID-19 Pandemic

In this pilot study, was analyzed the perception of synchronous virtual classes by engineering students in Colombia, specifically concerning four live streaming styles used as tools for digital teaching during the COVID-19 pandemic: talking head, speaker next to slide, speaker inside slide, and lightboard. Student opinions were collected using a Likert scale survey and open-response questions, and data were quantified to determine the influence of live streaming styles on teaching processes. Two populations were analyzed to determine whether continuous interaction with live streaming styles influenced student perceptions. Variation among the live streaming styles was observed only for the population with continuous interaction. Results indicate that the experiences between populations using the fourth live streaming style influence student perceptions of live streaming styles. The continuous interaction population preferred lightboard style, while the control population preferred speaker inside slide style. Factors for improvement were identified in all live streaming styles and mainly considered how the quality of audio and interaction impacted perception.

Addressing the contribution of agricultural systems to the phosphorus pollution challenge: a multi-dimensional perspective

The intensification of agricultural systems has increased the food production efficiency, increasing the productivity while the production costs are reduced. Although these factors are key to global food security in a context of continued human population growth, the use of intensive agricultural techniques results in different environmental issues. Mitigating these negative impacts is a requirement for adopting sustainable food production systems. Notably, nutrient pollution is one of the main environmental issues associated with both livestock and crop production. These activities result in different point and non-point source releases of phosphorus, which eventually reach surface and ground waterbodies. This might result in the accumulation of phosphorus over time, contributing to the eutrophication of water ecosystems, and the development of harmful algal bloom (HABs) episodes. The releases of nutrients from agricultural activities can be abated through different management strategies, including the implementation of nutrient recovery techniques at livestock facilities, embracing precision fertilization methods, and developing integrated crop-livestock systems for achieving circular food production systems. In this work, we describe opportunities for Process System Engineering (PSE) to address the development of phosphorus management techniques for mitigating phosphorus pollution from agricultural systems balancing trade-offs between recovery cost and environmental impact mitigation. These techniques integrate the spatial analysis of nutrient pollution from agriculture using geographical information systems (GIS) with the assessment and the selection of phosphorus management techniques combining techno-economic analysis (TEA) and environmental metrics through multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) frameworks, and use mathematical programming for the conceptual design of integrated crop-livestock systems.

Identification and Ranking of Accident Black Spots in Jordan

In any country, identifying high-intensity accident hotspots is essential in establishing effective techniques to minimize high-intensity accident sites. Because of Jordan's continual population growth in recent years, vehicle ownership has grown, leading to an increase in accident rates. According to many researches, Jordan suffers from damages caused by traffic accidents. As a result, the current study focuses on finding the black spots in selected Jordanian localities as a first step toward identifying the strategies to minimize traffic accidents in Jordan. To achieve this objective, the researcher started their investigation by collecting the accidents that occurred in Jordan during three years in 30 departments in Amman. The study area includes 30 segments in seven intersections in Amman city. Based on the collected data, the case study traffic sites were ranked based on their safety performance using several methods: accident rates, accident frequency, and accident severity index. The study's findings revealed that the high safety segment in the study area is from al-zamakhshre to interchange al-shfaa. In contrast, the high black spots are found from Jordan University to major streets. Results confirmed that identifying the high black spots segments contributes to reducing expected traffic accidents.