Continuous Plankton Recorder Survey Research Articles

Spatio-Temporal Variability of the North Sea Cod Recruitment in Relation to Temperature and Zooplankton

The North Sea cod (Gadus morhua, L.) stock has continuously declined over the past four decades linked with overfishing and climate change. Changes in stock structure due to overfishing have made the stock largely dependent on its recruitment success, which greatly relies on environmental conditions. Here we focus on the spatio-temporal variability of cod recruitment in an effort to detect changes during the critical early life stages. Using International Bottom Trawl Survey (IBTS) data from 1974 to 2011, a major spatio-temporal change in the distribution of cod recruits was identified in the late 1990s, characterized by a pronounced decrease in the central and southeastern North Sea stock. Other minor spatial changes were also recorded in the mid-1980s and early 1990s. We tested whether the observed changes in recruits distribution could be related with direct (i.e. temperature) and/or indirect (i.e. changes in the quantity and quality of zooplankton prey) effects of climate variability. The analyses were based on spatially-resolved time series, i.e. sea surface temperature (SST) from the Hadley Center and zooplankton records from the Continuous Plankton Recorder Survey. We showed that spring SST increase was the main driver for the most recent decrease in cod recruitment. The late 1990s were also characterized by relatively low total zooplankton biomass, particularly of energy-rich zooplankton such as the copepod Calanus finmarchicus, which have further contributed to the decline of North Sea cod recruitment. Long-term spatially-resolved observations were used to produce regional distribution models that could further be used to predict the abundance of North Sea cod recruits based on temperature and zooplankton food availability.

The mesozooplankton community of the Belgian shelf (North Sea)

This manuscript presents the mesozooplankton community structure and its spatial and temporal variabilities in the Belgian part of the North Sea (BPNS), a first thorough study on this topic in nearly 40years. Monthly sampling campaigns at ten stations in the BPNS in 2009 and 2010 yielded a total of 137 mesozooplankton taxa (46 holoplanktonic, 50 meroplanktonic and 41 tychoplanktonic), of which nine species had never been reported in the area. Smaller neritic copepods, especially Temora longicornis and Acartia clausi, were present in all samples and dominated zooplankton densities (66%), together with the appendicularian Oikopleura dioica (10%). They were joined by high numbers of meroplanktonic echinoderm larvae (9%) in spring and summer. Based on diversity alone, the mesozooplankton could be typified as one neritic zooplankton community, due to the ubiquitous presence in time and space of the dominant copepods. Yet, these neritic species were often joined by low numbers of oceanic species that are occasionally imported with the inflow of Atlantic oceanic water in the BPNS. Based on a combination of abundance and diversity, our results indicate distinct seasonal and spatial distribution patterns in the mesozooplankton. Months with highest average densities were May, June and July, lowest densities were noted in December and January. Only limited long-term zooplankton data are available for the BPNS from the Continuous Plankton Recorder surveys or the long-term monitoring stations in the vicinity of our research area. However, our data suggest that nowadays zooplankton species appear earlier in the BPNS, comparable with other areas in the North Sea. Densities varied between 150 and 15,000ind.m−3, and averaged highest at midshore stations, then nearshore and offshore. This is partially comparable with the spatial patterns recorded for other ecosystem components, such as demersal fish, epibenthos and macrobenthos, of which densities peak in a stretch almost parallel to but some miles away from the coastline in the BPNS.

Are Calanus spp. shifting poleward in the North Atlantic? A habitat modelling approach

Abstract Chust, G., Castellani, C., Licandro, P., Ibaibarriaga, L., Sagarminaga, Y., and Irigoien, X. 2014. Are Calanus spp. shifting poleward in the North Atlantic? A habitat modelling approach. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 71: 241–253. In the last decade, the analysis based on Continuous Plankton Recorder survey in the eastern North Atlantic Ocean detected one of the most striking examples of marine poleward migration related to sea warming. The main objective of this study is to verify the poleward shift of zooplankton species (Calanus finmarchicus, C. glacialis, C. helgolandicus, C. hyperboreus) for which distributional changes have been recorded in the North Atlantic Ocean and to assess how much of this shift was triggered by sea warming, using Generalized Additive Models. To this end, the population gravity centre of observed data was compared with that of a series of simulation experiments: (i) a model using only climate factors (i.e. niche-based model) to simulate species habitat suitability, (ii) a model using only temporal and spatial terms to reconstruct the population distribution, and (iii) a model using both factors combined, using a subset of observations as independent dataset for validation. Our findings show that only C. finmarchicus had a consistent poleward shift, triggered by sea warming, estimated in 8.1 km per decade in the North Atlantic (16.5 per decade for the northeast), which is substantially lower than previous works at the assemblage level and restricted to the Northeast Atlantic. On the contrary, C. helgolandicus is expanding in all directions, although its northern distribution limit in the North Sea has shifted northward. Calanus glacialis and C. hyperboreus, which have the geographic centres of populations mainly in the NW Atlantic, showed a slight southward shift, probably responding to cool water penetrating southward in the Labrador Current. Our approach, supported by high model accuracy, shows its power in detecting species latitudinal shifts and identifying its causes, since the trend of occurrence observed data is influenced by the sampling frequency, which has progressively concentrated to lower latitudes with time.

Extension of distribution of Pseudodiaptomus marinus, an introduced copepod, in the North Sea

Pseudodiaptomus marinus was described from eastern Asian waters and has subsequently been spread in the Indo-Pacific region, but has only been found in European waters since 2007. The presence of the species in inshore waters of the Southern Bight of the North Sea, in Calais Harbour and off Gravelines was noted in 2010 and 2011. The present records from the Continuous Plankton Recorder survey extend the known distribution northwards and across the Southern Bight between The Netherlands and British coasts. Net hauls for biological monitoring in the German exclusive economic zone add a location further north and east in the German Bight. Spread of the species to inshore waters of the eastern North Sea and to the Baltic is predicted.

Spatio-temporal dynamics of growth and survival of Lesser Sandeel early life-stages in the North Sea: Predictions from a coupled individual-based and hydrodynamic–biogeochemical model

Accounting for the individual variability and regional variations are important when predicting recruitment in fish species. Spatially explicit descriptions for recruitment in sandeels are necessary and sandeel growth and survival depend locally on zooplankton prey. We investigate the responses of larval and early juvenile Lesser Sandeel (Ammodytes marinus) in the North Sea to local feeding conditions by an adapted version of a generic bioenergetic individual-based model for larval fish describing growth and survival. Prey encounter and physiological processes are described explicitly in the model, which allows analyzing the influence of prey on the growth and survival of sandeel. The model is coupled to a hydrodynamic–biogeochemical model with physical and prey fields and implemented in temporal and three-dimensional spatial settings. Zooplankton biomass simulated by the biogeochemical model is validated by Continuous Plankton Recorder survey time series data. Spatio-temporal dynamics of the sandeel cohorts are simulated by the integrated model framework for the period 2004–2006 and five major area divisions of suitable sandeel habitats in the North Sea. This allows obtaining insight into the influence of temperature variation and zooplankton availability on the growth and survival. To determine areas promising for recruitment, area divisions are compared and optimal time of hatching for higher survival to recruitment due to match–mismatch with prey is determined by comparing different hatching times. The effect of vertical diel migration behavior of sandeel on the model outcomes is also examined. Vertical migration of sandeel results in increased feeding ability and growth and decreased starvation mortality of individuals. Results show that areas of German Bight and Southern Bight with high zooplankton production support high growth of sandeel. Most sandeel survive to settling in the Dogger Bank area that has large retention on average and still productive in zooplankton. Hatching at the optimal time of March/February with matching zooplankton peak concentrations enhances the growth and survival. Growth correlates positively with the observed temperature trend. Survival correlates negatively with temperature and prominently, when the hatching is in winter.

On the roles of cell size and trophic strategy in North Atlantic diatom and dinoflagellate communities

We have examined the inter‐ and intra‐group seasonal succession of 113 diatom and dinoflagellate taxa, as surveyed by the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) in the North Atlantic, by grouping taxa according to two key functional traits: cell size (µg C cell−1) and trophic strategy (photoautotrophy, mixotrophy, or heterotrophy). Mixotrophic dinoflagellates follow photoautotrophic diatoms but precede their obligate heterotrophic counterparts in the succession because of the relative advantages afforded by photosynthesizing when light and nutrients are available in spring. The mean cell size of the sampled diatoms is smallest in the summer, likely because of the higher specific nutrient affinity of smaller relative to larger cells. Contrastingly, we hypothesize that mixotrophy diminishes the size selection based on nutrient limitation and accounts for the lack of a seasonal size shift among surveyed dinoflagellates. Relatively small, heterotrophic dinoflagellates (µg C cell−1 < 10−3) peak after other, larger dinoflagellates, in part because of the increased abundance of their small prey during nutrient‐deplete summer months. The largest surveyed diatoms (µg C cell−1 > 10−2) bloom later than others, and we hypothesize that this may be because of their relatively slow maximum potential growth rates and high internal nutrient storage, as well as to the slower predation of these larger cells. The new trait database and analysis presented here helps translate the taxonomic information of the CPR survey into metrics that can be directly compared with trait‐based models.

Challenges for implementing the Marine Strategy Framework Directive in a climate of macroecological change

Unprecedented basin-scale ecological changes are occurring in our seas. As temperature and carbon dioxide concentrations increase, the extent of sea ice is decreasing, stratification and nutrient regimes are changing and pH is decreasing. These unparalleled changes present new challenges for managing our seas, as we are only just beginning to understand the ecological manifestations of these climate alterations. The Marine Strategy Framework Directive requires all European Member States to achieve good environmental status (GES) in their seas by 2020; this means management towards GES will take place against a background of climate-driven macroecological change. Each Member State must set environmental targets to achieve GES; however, in order to do so, an understanding of large-scale ecological change in the marine ecosystem is necessary. Much of our knowledge of macroecological change in the North Atlantic is a result of research using data gathered by the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) survey, a near-surface plankton monitoring programme that has been sampling in the North Atlantic since 1931. CPR data indicate that North Atlantic and North Sea plankton dynamics are responding to both climate and human-induced changes, presenting challenges to the development of pelagic targets for achievement of GES in European Seas. Thus, the continuation of long-term ecological time series such as the CPR survey is crucial for informing and supporting the sustainable management of European seas through policy mechanisms.

A 60-year ocean colour data set from the continuous plankton recorder

The phytoplankton colour index (PCI) of the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) survey is an in situ measure of ocean colour, which is considered a proxy of the phytoplankton biomass. PCI has been extensively used to describe the major spatiotemporal patterns of phytoplankton in the North Atlantic Ocean and North Sea since 1931. Regardless of its wide application, the lack of an adequate evaluation to test the PCI's quantitative nature is an important limitation. To address this concern, a field trial over the main production season has been undertaken to assess the numerical values assigned by previous investigations for each category of the greenness of the PCI. CPRs were towed across the English Channel from Roscoff to Plymouth consecutively for each of 8 months producing 76 standard CPR samples, each representing 10 nautical miles of tow. The results of this experiment test and update the PCI methodology, and confirm the validity of this long-term in situ ocean colour data set. In addition, using a 60-year time series of the PCI of the western English Channel, a comparison is made between the previous and the current revised experimental calculations of PCI.

Influence of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation on phytoplankton phenology and community structure in the western North Pacific

Phytoplankton phenology and community structure in the western North Pacific were investigated for 2001–2009, based on satellite ocean colour data and the Continuous Plankton Recorder survey. We estimated the timing of the spring bloom based on the cumulative sum satellite chlorophyll adata, and found that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)‐related interannual SST anomaly in spring significantly affected phytoplankton phenology. The bloom occurred either later or earlier in years of positive or negative PDO (indicating cold and warm conditions, respectively). Phytoplankton composition in the early summer varied depending on the magnitude of seasonal SST increases, rather than the SST value itself. Interannual variations in diatom abundance and the relative abundance of non‐diatoms were positively correlated with SST increases for March–April and May–July, respectively, suggesting that mixed layer environmental factors, such as light availability and nutrient stoichiometry, determine shifts in phytoplankton community structure. Our study emphasised the importance of the interannual variation in climate‐induced warm–cool cycles as one of the key mechanisms linking climatic forcing and lower trophic level ecosystems.

Long-Term Retrospective Analysis of Mackerel Spawning in the North Sea: A New Time Series and Modeling Approach to CPR Data

We present a unique view of mackerel (Scomber scombrus) in the North Sea based on a new time series of larvae caught by the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) survey from 1948-2005, covering the period both before and after the collapse of the North Sea stock. Hydrographic backtrack modelling suggested that the effect of advection is very limited between spawning and larvae capture in the CPR survey. Using a statistical technique not previously applied to CPR data, we then generated a larval index that accounts for both catchability as well as spatial and temporal autocorrelation. The resulting time series documents the significant decrease of spawning from before 1970 to recent depleted levels.Spatial distributions of the larvae, and thus the spawning area, showed a shift from early to recent decades, suggesting that the central North Sea is no longer as important as the areas further west and south. These results provide a consistent and unique perspective on the dynamics of mackerel in this region and can potentially resolve many of the unresolved questions about this stock.

Changes in marine dinoflagellate and diatom abundance under climate change

Marine diatoms and dinoflagellates play a variety of key ecosystem roles as important primary producers (diatoms and some dinoflagellates) and grazers (some dinoflagellates). Additionally some are harmful algal bloom (HAB) species and there is widespread concern that HAB species may be increasing accompanied by major negative socio-economic impacts, including threats to human health and marine harvesting1, 2. Using 92,263 samples from the Continuous Plankton Recorder survey, we generated a 50-year (1960–2009) time series of diatom and dinoflagellate occurrence in the northeast Atlantic and North Sea. Dinoflagellates, including both HAB taxa (for example, Prorocentrum spp.) and non-HAB taxa (for example, Ceratium furca), have declined in abundance, particularly since 2006. In contrast, diatom abundance has not shown this decline with some common diatoms, including both HAB (for example, Pseudo-nitzschia spp.) and non-HAB (for example, Thalassiosira spp.) taxa, increasing in abundance. Overall these changes have led to a marked increase in the relative abundance of diatoms versus dinoflagellates. Our analyses, including Granger tests to identify criteria of causality, indicate that this switch is driven by an interaction effect of both increasing sea surface temperatures combined with increasingly windy conditions in summer.

The influence of phytoplankton productivity, temperature and environmental stability on the control of copepod diversity in the North East Atlantic

The patterns of copepod species richness (S) and their relationship with phytoplankton productivity, temperature and environmental stability were investigated at climatological, seasonal and year-to-year time scales as well as scales along latitudinal and oceanic–neritic gradients using monthly time series of the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) Survey collected in the North East Atlantic between 1958 and 2006. Time series analyses confirmed previously described geographic patterns. Equatorward and towards neritic environments, the climatological average of S increases and the variance explained by the seasonal cycle decreases. The bi-modal character of seasonality increases equatorward and the timing of the seasonal cycle takes place progressive earlier equatorward and towards neritic environments. In the long-term, the climatological average of S decreased significantly (p<0.001) between 1958 and 2006 in the Bay of Biscay and North Iberian shelf at a rate of ca. 0.04year−1, and increased at the same rate between 1991 and 2006 in the northernmost oceanic location. The climatological averages of S correlate positively with those of the index of seasonality of phytoplankton productivity (ratio between the minimum and maximum monthly values of surface chlorophyll) and sea surface temperature, and negatively with those of the proxy for environmental stability (monthly frequency of occurrence of daily averaged wind speed exceeding 10ms−1). The seasonal cycles of S and phytoplankton productivity (surface chlorophyll as proxy) exhibit similar features in terms of shape, timing and explained variance, but the relationship between the climatological averages of both variables is non-significant. From year-to-year, the annual averages of S correlate negatively with those of phytoplankton productivity and positively with those of sea surface temperature along the latitudinal gradient, and negatively with those of environmental stability along the oceanic–neritic gradient. The annual anomalies of S (i.e. factoring out geographic variation) show a unimodal relationship with those of sea surface temperature and environmental stability, with S peaking at intermediate values of the anomalies of these variables. The results evidence the role of seasonality of phytoplankton productivity on the control of copepod species richness at seasonal and climatological scales, giving support to the species richness–productivity hypothesis. Although sea surface temperature (SST) is indeed a good predictor of richness along the latitudinal gradient, it is unable to predict the increase of richness form oceanic to neritic environments, thus lessening the generality of the species richness–energy hypothesis. Meteo-hydrographic disturbances (i.e. SST and wind speed anomalies as proxies), presumably through its role on mixed layer depth dynamics and turbulence and hence productivity, maximise local diversity when occurring at intermediate frequency and or intensity, thus providing support to the intermediate disturbance hypothesis on the control of copepod diversity.

Effects of formalin preservation on stable carbon and nitrogen isotope signatures in Calanoid copepods: implications for the use of Continuous Plankton Recorder Survey samples in stable isotope analyses

Preserved and archived organic material offers huge potential for the conduct of retrospective and long-term historical ecosystem reconstructions using stable isotope analyses, but because of isotopic exchange with preservatives the obtained values require validation. The Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) Survey is the most extensive long-term monitoring program for plankton communities worldwide and has utilised ships of opportunity to collect samples since 1931. To keep the samples intact for subsequent analysis, they are collected and preserved in formalin; however, previous studies have found that this may alter stable carbon and nitrogen isotope ratios in zooplankton. A maximum ~0.9‰ increase of δ(15) N and a time dependent maximum ~1.0‰ decrease of δ(13) C were observed when the copepod, Calanus helgolandicus, was experimentally exposed to two formalin preservatives for 12 months. Applying specific correction factors to δ(15) N and δ(13) C values for similarly preserved Calanoid species collected by the CPR Survey within 12 months of analysis may be appropriate to enable their use in stable isotope studies. The isotope values of samples stored frozen did not differ significantly from those of controls. Although the impact of formalin preservation was relatively small in this and other studies of marine zooplankton, changes in isotope signatures are not consistent across taxa, especially for δ(15) N, indicating that species-specific studies may be required.

Future climate‐driven shifts in distribution of Calanus finmarchicus

Abstract Calanus finmarchicus is a key‐structural species of the North Atlantic polar biome. The species plays an important trophic role in subpolar and polar ecosystems as a grazer of phytoplankton and as a prey for higher trophic levels such as the larval stages of many fish species. Here, we used a recently developed ecological niche model to assess the ecological niche (sensu Hutchinson) of C. finmarchicus and characterize its spatial distribution. This model explained about 65% of the total variance of the observed spatial distribution inferred from an independent dataset (data of the continuous plankton recorder survey). Comparisons with other types of models (structured population and ecophysiological models) revealed a clear similarity between modeled spatial distributions at the scale of the North Atlantic. Contemporary models coupled with future projections indicated a progressive reduction of the spatial habitat of the species at the southern edge and a more pronounced one in the Georges Bank, the Scotian Shelf and the North Sea and a potential increase in abundance at the northern edge of its spatial distribution, especially in the Barents Sea. These major changes will probably lead to a major alteration of the trophodynamics of North Atlantic ecosystems affecting the trophodynamics and the biological carbon pump.

Comparison of zooplankton distribution patterns between four seasons in the Indian Ocean sector of the Southern Ocean

We investigated the composition, distribution and abundance of zooplankton in the Indian Ocean sector of the Southern Ocean during the austral summer (December/January) of 2004/05, 2005/06, 2007/08 and 2008/09 using a Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR). CPR tows were conducted along two transects during voyages south of Cape Town to north of Syowa station and from north of the Mawson station area to south of Fremantle. High zooplankton abundance was recorded on each transect in the Polar Frontal Zone (PFZ) and the northern area of the Antarctic Zone (AZ). Community structure in these zones was dominated by common taxa including the ubiquitous Oithona similis and calanoid copepodites, accounting for >50% of total abundance, and Calanus simillimus, Ctenocalanus citer, Clausocalanus laticeps and Metridia lucens also occurred in high densities. Appendicularians of the genus Fritillaria were the most important component in the Cape Town to Syowa station area in 2008, with 36.9% of total abundance. The average chlorophyll a level at this time of year was the lowest (0.32 mg m −3) among all transects. Appendicularians are suited to oceanic oligotrophic waters; therefore, they are suited to low phytoplankton density. Foraminiferans were numerically dominant throughout the Mawson station area to Fremantle transect in 2005. Unlike Fritillaria spp., foraminiferans prefer high phytoplankton density. The elevated average chlorophyll a biomass in 2005 (0.64 mg m −3) provided favorable conditions for Foraminifera, which were dominant and widespread. CPR surveys provide information on the fine scale structure of the inter-annual distribution changes in micro- and meso- zooplankton assemblages, and the CPR is one of ideal method to monitor organisms that are indicators of environmental change.

A blooming jellyfish in the northeast Atlantic and Mediterranean

A long-term time series of plankton records collected by the continuous plankton recorder (CPR) Survey in the northeast Atlantic indicates an increased occurrence of Cnidaria since 2002. In the years 2007 and 2008, outbreaks of the warm-temperate scyphomedusa, Pelagia noctiluca, appeared in CPR samples between 45° N to 58° N and 1° W to 26° W. Knowing the biology of this species and its occurrence in the adjacent Mediterranean Sea, we suggest that P. noctiluca may be exploiting recent hydroclimatic changes in the northeast Atlantic to increase its extent and intensity of outbreaks. In pelagic ecosystems, Cnidaria can affect fish recruitment negatively. Since P. noctiluca is a highly venomous species, outbreaks can also be detrimental to aquaculture and make bathing waters unusable, thus having profound ecological and socio-economic consequences.

US NOAA Fisheries and UK SAHFOS CPR surveys: comparison of methods and data

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Fisheries Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) Survey has sampled four routes: Boston–Nova Scotia (1961–present), New York toward Bermuda (1976–present), Narragansett Bay–Mount Hope Bay–Rhode Island Sound (1998–present) and eastward of Chesapeake Bay (1974–1980). NOAA involvement began in 1974 when it assumed responsibility for the existing Boston–Nova Scotia route from what is now the UK's Sir Alister Hardy Foundation for Ocean Science (SAHFOS). Training, equipment and computer software were provided by SAHFOS to ensure continuity for this and standard protocols for any new routes. Data for the first 14 years of this route were provided to NOAA by SAHFOS. Comparison of collection methods; sample processing; and sample identification, staging and counting techniques revealed near-consistency between NOAA and SAHFOS. One departure involved phytoplankton counting standards. This has since been addressed and the data corrected. Within- and between-survey taxonomic and life-stage names and their consistency through time were, and continue to be, an issue. For this, a cross-reference table has been generated that contains the SAHFOS taxonomic code, NOAA taxonomic code, NOAA life-stage code, National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) taxonomic code, Integrated Taxonomic Information System (ITIS) serial number and authority and consistent use/route. This table is available for review/use by other CPR surveys. Details of the NOAA and SAHFOS comparison and analytical techniques unique to NOAA are presented.

Zooplankton Atlas of the Southern Ocean: The SCAR SO-CPR Survey (1991–2008)

The SCAR Southern Ocean Continuous Plankton Recorder (SO-CPR) Survey produces one of the largest and most accessed zooplankton data sets in the world. These data serve as a reference for other Southern Ocean monitoring programmes such as those run by the Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR) and the developing Southern Ocean Observing System (SOOS). It has been instrumental in providing baseline data on zooplankton composition, communities, and distribution patterns on the ocean basin scale. The SO-CPR Survey is publishing the first detailed geographical atlas of the near-surface Southern Ocean zooplankton. This atlas is based on 22,553 CPR samples collected from 1991 to 2008 from voyages operated by Australia, Japan, Germany, New Zealand, USA and Russia. The Atlas documents the distribution and abundance of the 50 most abundant zooplankton taxa amongst the 200+ taxa sampled. The maps are printed in alphabetical order of the genera within each taxon and nomenclature is based on the Register of Antarctic Marine Species (RAMS) developed by the SCAR Marine Biodiversity Information Network (SCAR-MarBIN). The SO-CPR Atlas will operate as a ready reference to researchers interested in the distribution of zooplankton in the Southern Ocean, for example knowing the distribution of grazers in relation to phytoplankton production or the availability of prey for higher predators.

OCEAN CLIMATE CHANGE, PHYTOPLANKTON COMMUNITY RESPONSES, AND HARMFUL ALGAL BLOOMS: A FORMIDABLE PREDICTIVE CHALLENGE

Prediction of the impact of global climate change on marine HABs is fraught with difficulties. However, we can learn important lessons from the fossil record of dinoflagellate cysts; long-term monitoring programs, such as the Continuous Plankton Recorder surveys; and short-term phytoplankton community responses to El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) episodes. Increasing temperature, enhanced surface stratification, alteration of ocean currents, intensification or weakening of local nutrient upwelling, stimulation of photosynthesis by elevated CO2, reduced calcification through ocean acidification (“the other CO2 problem”), and heavy precipitation and storm events causing changes in land runoff and micronutrient availability may all produce contradictory species- or even strain-specific responses. Complex factor interactions exist, and simulated ecophysiological laboratory experiments rarely allow for sufficient acclimation and rarely take into account physiological plasticity and genetic strain diversity. We can expect: (i) range expansion of warm-water species at the expense of cold-water species, which are driven poleward; (ii) species-specific changes in the abundance and seasonal window of growth of HAB taxa; (iii) earlier timing of peak production of some phytoplankton; and (iv) secondary effects for marine food webs, notably when individual zooplankton and fish grazers are differentially impacted (“match-mismatch”) by climate change. Some species of harmful algae (e.g., toxic dinoflagellates benefitting from land runoff and/or water column stratification, tropical benthic dinoflagellates responding to increased water temperatures and coral reef disturbance) may become more successful, while others may diminish in areas currently impacted. Our limited understanding of marine ecosystem responses to multifactorial physicochemical climate drivers as well as our poor knowledge of the potential of marine microalgae to adapt genetically and phenotypically to the unprecedented pace of current climate change are emphasized. The greatest problems for human society will be caused by being unprepared for significant range expansions or the increase of algal biotoxin problems in currently poorly monitored areas, thus calling for increased vigilance in seafood-biotoxin and HAB monitoring programs. Changes in phytoplankton communities provide a sensitive early warning for climate-driven perturbations to marine ecosystems.

Spatial and seasonal distribution of adult Oithona similis in the Southern Ocean: Predictions using boosted regression trees

We applied a multivariate statistical modelling technique called boosted regression trees to derive relationships between environmental conditions and the distribution of the adult stage of the cyclopoid copepod Oithona similis in the Southern Ocean. Nearly 20 000 samples from the Southern Ocean Continuous Plankton Recorder survey (87% from East Antarctica) were used to model the probability of detection (presence) and relative abundance of adults of this zooplankton species in surface waters. We demonstrate that it is possible to obtain reasonable models for both the presence (area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve of 0.77) and relative abundance (28–35% variance explained) of adult O. similis between November and March in much of the Southern Ocean. No investigation was possible where the environmental characteristics were not well represented by the SO-CPR dataset, namely, the Argentine shelf, Weddell Sea, and the frontal region north of the Amundsen Sea, or under sea-ice. Our analyses support the hypothesis that adult O. similis abundance is related to environmental conditions in a broadly similar way throughout the Southern Ocean. Compared to a compilation of net-haul data from the literature, the abundance model explained 34% of the variance in surface concentrations of adult stages of this species, and 23–59% of the variance in depth-integrated abundance of copepodite and adult stages combined. The models show higher occurrence and elevated abundances in a broad circumpolar band between the Antarctic Polar Front and the southern boundary of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (approximately 54–64°S). Evidence of diel vertical migration by adults of this species north of 65°S was found, with surface abundances 20% higher at night than during the day. There was no evidence of diel migration south of 65°S. Five potential “hotspots” of adult O. similis were identified: in the southern Scotia Sea, two areas off east Antarctica, in the frontal zone north of the Amundsen Sea, and a small area in the outer Bellingshausen Sea. We recommend that a database of all available net-haul data on Oithona similis in the Southern Ocean be created to facilitate further investigations on the circumpolar distribution of this species.