Continued Uncertainty Research Articles

Briefing: How long-term monitoring of SuDS will inform next-generation guidance and modelling tools

Sustainable drainage systems (SuDS) are becoming more commonplace in urban environments due to the additional benefits they can provide alongside their core stormwater management function. In Mansfield, UK, Severn Trent Water is investing £76 million in retrofitting hundreds of SuDS to provide flood risk reduction to 90 000 people while simultaneously creating 5 ha of biodiversity-rich habitat. However, there is continued uncertainty about the long-term performance of these nature-based assets in comparison to traditional grey infrastructure. Through a new industrial–academic partnership, a long-term evaluation of SuDS performance across Mansfield will be used to inform the next generation of design guidance and modelling tools.

Key Uncertainties and Modeling Needs for Managing Living Marine Resources in the Future Arctic Ocean

AbstractEmerging fishing activity due to melting ice and poleward species distribution shifts in the rapidly‐warming Arctic Ocean challenges transboundary management and requires proactive governance. A 2021 moratorium on commercial fishing in the Arctic high seas provides a 16‐year runway for improved scientific understanding. Given substantial knowledge gaps, characterizing areas of highest uncertainty is a key first step. Marine ecosystem model ensembles that project future fish distributions could inform management of future Arctic fisheries, but Arctic‐specific variation has not yet been examined for global ensembles. We use the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Intercomparison Project ensemble driven by two Earth System Models (ESMs) under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1‐2.6 and SSP5‐8.5) to illustrate the current state of and uncertainty among biomass projections for the Arctic Ocean over the duration of the moratorium. The models generally project biomass increases in more northern Arctic ecosystems and decreases in southern ecosystems, but wide intra‐model variation exceeds projection means in most cases. The two ESMs show opposite trends for the main environmental drivers. Therefore, these projections are currently insufficient to inform policy actions. Investment in sustained monitoring and improving modeling capacity, especially for sea ice dynamics, is urgently needed. Concurrently, it will be necessary to develop frameworks for making precautionary decisions under continued uncertainty. We conclude that researchers should be transparent about uncertainty, presenting these model projections not as a source of scientific “answers,” but as bounding for plausible, policy‐relevant questions to assess trade‐offs and mitigate risks.

Evaluating the responsiveness of Caribbean stock markets – The case of COVID-19

The Caribbean stock markets have been largely ignored by scholars, partly due to the conventional view of a weak and inefficient system, and low integration to the world financial system. This paper examines the major announcements related to COVID-19 as exogenous shocks and their impacts on stock market returns in the two most developed stock markets in the Caribbean region. Using the standard event methodology and a dynamic difference in differences model, we confirm a significant decline in stock returns in response to negative announcements of COVID-19-related news. Other positive news such as the announcements of re-opening of the economy and vaccine had a positive impact on stock returns. The Jamaica stock markets are likely to be weakly efficient and exhibit low responsiveness to major COVID-19-related events and news. Most sectors in the Caribbean economy experienced significant losses to stock returns resulting from these shocks. The banking, conglomerates, and property sectors continued to be subdued in the face of continued uncertainty and unpredictability of the overall impact of COVID-19. The energy and communication sectors seemed to be either the most resilient or most asymmetrically informed sectors as they are found not to be affected by COVID-19-related announcements. The manufacturing, property, and non-banking sectors are found to recover quickly from the shocks. Our analysis provides further insight in terms of portfolio investment strategies in the Caribbean region.

'Acceleration' of the food delivery marketplace: Perspectives of local authority professionals in the North-East of England on temporary COVID regulations.

In January 2021, we assessed the implications of temporary regulations in the United Kingdom allowing pubs and restaurants to operate on a takeaway basis without instigating a change of use. Local authorities (LAs) across the North-East of England were unaware of any data regarding the take-up of these regulations, partially due to ongoing capacity issues; participants also raised health concerns around takeaway use increasing significantly. One year on, we repeated the study aiming to understand the impact of these regulations on the policy and practice of key professional groups. Specifically, we wanted to understand if LAs were still struggling with staff capacity to address the regulations, whether professionals still had public health trepidations, and if any unexpected changes had occurred across the local food environment because of the pandemic. We conversed with 16 public health professionals, planners and environmental health officers across seven LAs throughout the North-East of England via focus groups and interviews. Data collated were analysed via an inductive and semantic, reflexive-thematic approach. Through analysis of the data, three themes were generated and are discussed throughout: popular online delivery services as a mediator to increased takeaway usage; potential long-term health implications and challenges; continued uncertainty regarding the temporary regulations. This paper highlights important changes to local food environments, which public health professionals should be aware of, so they are better equipped to tackle health inequalities across urban and sub-urban areas.

A candidate panel of eight urinary proteins shows potential of early diagnosis and risk assessment for diabetic kidney disease in type 1 diabetes

Diabetic kidney disease (DKD) poses a significant health challenge for individuals with diabetes. At its initial stages, DKD often presents asymptomatically, and the standard for non-invasive diagnosis, the albumin-creatinine ratio (ACR), employs discrete categorizations (normal, microalbuminuria, macroalbuminuria) with limitations in sensitivity and specificity across diverse population cohorts. Single biomarker reliance further restricts the predictive value in clinical settings. Given the escalating prevalence of diabetes, our study uses proteomic technologies to identify novel urinary proteins as supplementary DKD biomarkers. A total of 158 T1D subjects provided urine samples, with 28 (15 DKD; 13 non-DKD) used in the discovery stage and 131 (45 DKD; 40 pDKD; 46 non-DKD) used in the confirmation. We identified eight proteins (A1BG, AMBP, AZGP1, BTD, RBP4, ORM2, GM2A, and PGCP), all of which demonstrated excellent area-under-the-curve (AUC) values (0.959 to 0.995) in distinguishing DKD from non-DKD. Furthermore, this multi-marker panel successfully segregated the most ambiguous group (microalbuminuria) into three distinct clusters, with 80% of subjects aligning either as DKD or non-DKD. The remaining 20% exhibited continued uncertainty. Overall, the use of these candidate urinary proteins allowed for the better classification of DKD and offered potential for significant improvements in the early identification of DKD in T1D populations.

PENGARUH PENGUMUMAN DIVIDEN TERHADAP ABNORMAL RETURN DAN TRADING VOLUME ACTIVITY PADA PASAR MODAL INDONESIA TAHUN 2020-2021

The Covid-19 pandemic has had a broad impact on all sectors in Indonesia. Many investors responded by selling their shares to minimize potential losses that could be caused by continued economic uncertainty. Market conditions that continue to experience significant decline have triggered a crisis in the capital market. In an effort to calm panic in the market, dividend announcements are considered an effective strategy because they have a positive signal that can provide confidence to investors and act as a counterweight to market volatility. Therefore, this research aims to determine the effect of dividend announcements on abnormal returns and trading volume activity in the Indonesian capital market in 2020-2021. This research uses the event study method which studies the capital market's reaction to an event whose information is published as an announcement. The research results show that there is an influence of dividend announcements on abnormal returns in the Indonesian capital market, especially in the energy and consumer cyclicals sectors and there is an influence of dividend announcements on trading volume activity in the Indonesian capital market, especially in the basic materials and technology sectors. "Pengumuman dividen ; Abnormal return ; Trading volume activity ; Covid-19"

Redox conditions of Datangpo-type manganese ores constrained by statistical analysis of pyrite framboids and iron isotopes

Datangpo-type manganese ores which originated in the Cryogenian Datangpo Formation, are overlaid and underlaid by Nantuo diamicite and Tiesi'ao silistones, respectively. A thorough understanding of the manganese mineralization process is currently limited by the continued uncertainty regarding the metallogenic redox condition of the Mn-bearing rock series. This study employed statistical analysis of pyrite framboid sizes and iron isotope (δ56Fe) to determine the redox conditions and constrain the mineralization process of Datangpo-type manganese ores in South China, considering the Gaolou in Chongqing, Yanglizhang in Guizhou, and Minle and Zhenxing in Hunan as examples. The results showed that Tiesi'ao siltstones mainly developed relatively larger diameter (7.29–7.68 μm) framboidal pyrites, whereas mudstones in the Datangpo Formation developed relatively smaller diameter (2.63–5.56 μm) framboidal pyrites. Furthermore, manganese ores produce non-framboidal pyrites. In three profiles, framboidal pyrite concentrations were found to be negatively correlated with Mn contents. These characteristics suggested that siltstones, mudstones, and manganese ores were deposited in oxic-anoxic, dysoxic-euxinic, and oxic-dysoxic conditions, respectively. The δ56Fe of whole rocks (δ56FeWR) exhibited a range from −0.73 ‰ to +0.48 ‰ (average of −0.32 ‰), whereas pyrite (δ56FePy) varied from +0.03 ‰ to +0.83 ‰ (average of +0.36 ‰). Furthermore, δ56FePy in manganese ore (average = +0.27 ‰) were lighter than those in mudstone (average = +0.49 ‰). The results of this study demonstrated that oxidation deposition played a role in pyrite formation, with manganese ores exhibiting more oxic conditions compared to mudstones. The findings of this study suggested that idiomorphic pyrite formation was similar to that of manganese ore, in which Mn precipitated in the form of manganese (hydro)oxides under oxic seawater, and then converted into rhodochrosite under anoxic sulfidic diagenetic conditions, with the involvement of microbes. This research has the potential to enhance comprehension regarding redox conditions and the regulation of sedimentary manganese ores via redox transformation.

Elastic manufacturing: provisioning and deprovisioning production capacity to vary product volume and mix

PurposeAdvancements in responsive manufacturing have been supporting companies over the last few decades. However, manufacturers now operate in a context of continuous uncertainty. This research paper explores a mechanism where companies can “elastically” provision and deprovision their production capacity, to enable them in coping with repeated disruptions. Such a mechanism is facilitated by the imitability and substitutability of production resources.Design/methodology/approachAn inductive study was conducted using Gioia methodology for this theory generation research. Respondents from 20 UK manufacturing companies across multiple industrial sectors reflected on their experience during COVID-19. Resource-based view and resource dependence theory were employed to analyse the manufacturers' use of internal and external production resources.FindingsThe study identifies elastic responses at four operational levels: production-line, factory, company and supply chain. Elastic responses that imposed variable-costs were particularly well-suited for coping with unforeseen disruptions. Further, the imitability and substitutability of manufacturers helped others produce alternate goods during the crisis.Originality/valueWhile uniqueness of production capability helps manufacturers sustain competitive advantage against competitors during stable operations, imitability and substitutability are beneficial during a crisis. Successful manufacturing companies need to combine these two approaches to respond effectively to repeated disruptions in a context of ongoing uncertainties. The theoretical contribution is in characterising responsive manufacturing in terms of resource heterogeneity and resource homogeneity, with elastic resourcing as the underlying mechanism.

Active uncertainty reduction for safe and efficient interaction planning: A shielding-aware dual control approach

The ability to accurately predict others’ behavior is central to the safety and efficiency of robotic systems in interactive settings, such as human–robot interaction and multi-robot teaming tasks. Unfortunately, robots often lack access to key information on which these predictions may hinge, such as other agents’ goals, attention, and willingness to cooperate. Dual control theory addresses this challenge by treating unknown parameters of a predictive model as stochastic hidden states and inferring their values at runtime using information gathered during system operation. While able to optimally and automatically trade off exploration and exploitation, dual control is computationally intractable for general interactive motion planning, mainly due to the fundamental coupling between the robot’s trajectory plan and its prediction of other agents’ intent. In this paper, we present a novel algorithmic approach to enable active uncertainty reduction for interactive motion planning based on the implicit dual control paradigm. Our approach relies on sampling-based approximation of stochastic dynamic programming, leading to a model predictive control problem that can be readily solved by real-time gradient-based optimization methods. The resulting policy is shown to preserve the dual control effect for a broad class of predictive models with both continuous and categorical uncertainty. To ensure the safe operation of the interacting agents, we use a runtime safety filter (also referred to as a “shielding” scheme), which overrides the robot’s dual control policy with a safety fallback strategy when a safety-critical event is imminent. We then augment the dual control framework with an improved variant of the recently proposed shielding-aware robust planning scheme, which proactively balances the nominal planning performance with the risk of high-cost emergency maneuvers triggered by low-probability agent behaviors. We demonstrate the efficacy of our approach with both simulated driving studies and hardware experiments using 1/10 scale autonomous vehicles.

Real-time continuous perceived uncertainty annotation for spatial navigation studies in buildings

In order to study the complex psychological processes involved in human wayfinding in increasingly complex built environments, it is crucial to have continuous self-report measures. In this study, we developed two different methods for continuously measuring perceived uncertainty during wayfinding, one is real-time continuous annotation (RCUA) using a joystick device and the other is post-hoc continuous annotation (CUA) involving annotations while watching video footage of recent wayfinding activity. To evaluate the usability, reliability, and validity of both approaches, we conducted a study with 54 participants. We assessed the measures' reactivity during different sign-seeing events. We also evaluated the convergent validity of both measures by comparing their outcomes with a self-report questionnaire, and assessed their discriminative and predictive validity by comparing uncertain values between known groups and correlating those values with wayfinding performance. Our findings suggest that both approaches were valid at the task level, but RCUA was better at capturing fine-grained dynamics of human experience. These continuous uncertainty measures can provide valuable insights into the fleeting nature of human experience and help identify "problem spots" for wayfinding in complex buildings.

On the complexity of robust multi-stage problems with discrete recourse

We study the computational complexity of multi-stage robust optimization problems. Such problems are formulated with alternating min/max quantifiers and therefore naturally fall into a higher stage of the polynomial hierarchy. Despite this, almost no hardness results with respect to the polynomial hierarchy are known.In this work, we examine the hardness of robust two-stage adjustable and robust recoverable optimization with budgeted uncertainty sets. Our main technical contribution is the introduction of a technique tailored to prove Σ3p-hardness of such problems. We highlight a difference between continuous and discrete budgeted uncertainty: In the discrete case, indeed a wide range of problems becomes complete for the third stage of the polynomial hierarchy; in particular, this applies to the TSP, independent set, and vertex cover problems. However, in the continuous case this does not happen and problems remain in the first stage of the hierarchy. Finally, if we allow the uncertainty to not only affect the objective, but also multiple constraints, then this distinction disappears and even in the continuous case we encounter hardness for the third stage of the hierarchy. This shows that even robust problems which are already NP-complete can still exhibit a significant difference in computational complexity between column-wise and row-wise uncertainty.

Leading urban school teachers of Black and Brown students during social injustice and the pandemic

ABSTRACT This case study illustrates how leadership for learning and cultural competence could be used as theories of action during times of disruption to lead and transform urban teachers’ sense of self, sense of others, and motivation for change. The case study focuses on educators from a large urban charter school whose response to the pandemic and the social justice movements was using a year-long professional development to provide continuous support and foster a growth mindset among educators. Self-evaluation on the cultural proficiency scale showed that the principal and thirty teachers differed in their levels of proficiency. The principal and six teachers with middle and high levels of proficiency were then interviewed to probe their personal interpretations of the connections among their cultural competence, their awareness of structural inequities, and the ways this awareness might have impacted how they teach Black and Brown students in their classrooms. Regardless of where they were on the scale, Black and White educators benefited from self-reflections and group dialogue about how they value, model, and practice cultural proficiency with their Black and Brown students. These findings have implications for urban public charter school leadership during times of continued change and uncertainty.

Smartphone Apps for Containing the COVID-19 Pandemic in Germany: Qualitative Interview Study With Experts Based on Grounded Theory.

Smartphone apps, including those for digital contact tracing (DCT), played a crucial role in containing infections during the COVID-19 pandemic. Their primary function is to generate and disseminate information to disrupt transmissions based on various events, such as encounters, vaccinations, locations, or infections. Although the functionality of these apps has been extensively studied, there is still a lack of qualitative research addressing critical issues. We will demonstrate that the use of DCT presents a challenge due to the tension between continuous health monitoring and uncertainties related to transparency and user sovereignty. On one hand, DCT enables the monitoring of various risk factors, including data-based calculations of infection probabilities. On the other hand, continuous risk management is intertwined with several uncertainties, including the unclear storage of personal data, who has access to it, and how it will be used in the future. We focus on the German "Corona-Warn-App" and support our argument with empirical data from 19 expert interviews conducted between 2020 and 2021. The interviews were conducted using a semistructured questionnaire and analyzed according to the principles of grounded theory. Our data underscores 3 dimensions: transparency, data sovereignty, and the east-west divide. While transparency is considered an essential foundation for establishing trust in the use of DCT by providing a sense of security, data sovereignty is seen as a high value during the pandemic, protecting users from an undesired loss of control. The aspect of the east-west divide highlights the idea of incorporating sociocultural values and standards into technology, emphasizing that algorithms and data-driven elements, such as distance indicators, encounters, and isolations, are also influenced by sociocultural factors. The effective use of DCT for pandemic containment relies on achieving a balance between individual control and technological prevention. Maximizing the technological benefits of these tools is crucial. However, users must also be mindful of the information they share and maintain control over their shared data.

Fixed-time fuzzy adaptive control scheme for doubly fed induction generator–based wind turbine

This work focuses on the issue of designing a fixed-time fuzzy adaptive controller for variable-speed doubly fed induction generator-based wind turbine. The main goal is to optimize the wind turbine power production, while improving the performance of the overall control system such as, convergence speed, tracking accuracy, and robustness. For the control design, the backstepping technique is adopted, and fuzzy adaptive systems are employed as universal approximators to estimate continuous functional uncertainties. Using fixed–time stability concept, a detailed mathematical stability proof of the closed-loop control system is performed. Simulation results are presented to testify the efficiency of the designed control approach.

Physical activity and exercise for the prevention and management of mild cognitive impairment and dementia: a collaborative international guideline

BackgroundPhysical activity and exercise have been suggested as effective interventions for the prevention and management of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and dementia, but there are no international guidelines.ObjectivesTo create a set of evidence- and expert consensus-based prevention and management recommendations regarding physical activity (any bodily movement produced by skeletal muscles that results in energy expenditure) and exercise (a subset of physical activity that is planned, structured, repetitive), applicable to a range of individuals from healthy older adults to those with MCI/dementia.MethodsGuideline content was developed with input from several scientific and lay representatives’ societies. A systematic search across multidisciplinary databases was carried out until October 2021. Recommendations for prevention and management were developed according to the GRADE and complemented by consensus statements from the expert panels.RecommendationsPhysical activity may be considered for the primary prevention of dementia. In people with MCI there is continued uncertainty about the role of physical activity in slowing the conversion to dementia. Mind–body interventions have the greatest supporting evidence. In people with moderate dementia, exercise may be used for maintaining disability and cognition. All these recommendations were based on a very low/low certainty of evidence.ConclusionsAlthough the scientific evidence on the beneficial role of physical activity and exercise in preserving cognitive functions in subjects with normal cognition, MCI or dementia is inconclusive, this panel, composed of scientific societies and other stakeholders, recommends their implementation based on their beneficial effects on almost all facets of health.

Robust Optimization with Continuous Decision-Dependent Uncertainty with applications to demand response management

Robust Optimization with Continuous Decision-Dependent Uncertainty with applications to demand response management

Effect of Implementing a Commercial Electronic Early Warning System on Outcomes of Hospitalized Patients.

Despite the widespread adoption of early warning systems (EWSs), it is uncertain if their implementation improves patient outcomes. The authors report a pre-post quasi-experimental evaluation of a commercially available EWS on patient outcomes at a 700-bed academic medical center. The EWS risk scores were visible in the electronic medical record by bedside clinicians. The EWS risk scores were also monitored remotely 24/7 by critical care trained nurses who actively contacted bedside nurses when a patient's risk levels increased. The primary outcome was inpatient mortality. Secondary outcomes were rapid response team calls and activation of cardiopulmonary arrest (code-4) response teams. The study team conducted a regression discontinuity analysis adjusting for age, gender, insurance, severity of illness, risk of mortality, and hospital occupancy at admission. The analysis included 53,229 hospitalizations. Adjusted analysis showed no significant change in inpatient mortality, rapid response team call, or code-4 activations after implementing the EWS. This study confirms the continued uncertainty in the effectiveness of EWSs and the need for further rigorous examinations of EWSs.

The (Re)Industrialised Waterfront as a “Fluid Territory”: The Case of Lisbon and the Tagus Estuary

If delta and estuary areas are observed under the perspective of a double system of dynamic infrastructures, the object of parallel “water/urbanisation” processes, the interface spaces become key nodes. In this perspective, port and waterfront areas can be described as spaces of mediation. The article argues that in the case of Lisbon and the Tagus, as possibly in several other port cities, these edge spaces can be described as “fluid territories.” The pre-eminent characteristic of “fluid territories” is that they are not permanent, neither in space nor time. These areas present accelerated transformations, less defined boundaries, and an increased spatial and management complexity. Moreover, “fluid territories” also mediate (a) the culture-natural environment, with human action appropriating the natural system through infrastructure and urbanisation, and (b) the industrialised economic estuary, with its continuous updating. To demonstrate this hypothesis, two samples of Lisbon’s riverfront are observed, recording its constant variability over the last 200 years of industrialisation, emphasising the “fluidity” of the mediating spaces. The understanding of the “fluid” characteristic of water/land mediation spaces is relevant for the present. Being dynamic and regularly reinventing spaces, spatial planning, public space, and architectural design processes in “fluid territories” should increasingly seek adaptability, flexibility, and openness to change. In the climatic context of continuous uncertainty combined with the need to make room for infrastructure, rethinking mediation areas through the lens of the theoretical concept of the “fluid territory” enables the implementation of urban transformation processes consistent with contemporary challenges.

MapLoc: LSTM-Based Location Estimation Using Uncertainty Radio Maps

With the growing demand for location-based services, fingerprint has become a hot topic in the area of Internet of Things (IoT). However, the performance of fingerprinting-based indoor localization systems is usually affected by the quality and granularity of fingerprints. In this paper, we present MapLoc, a Long Short-term Memory (LSTM)-based indoor localization system that takes advantage of the continuous indoor uncertainty maps created using both earth magnetic field readings and WiFi received signal strengths (RSS). A Deep Gaussian Process (DGP) model is trained to create indoor radio maps with confidence intervals, which are referred as uncertainty maps. Utilizing the uncertainty maps, an LSTM based location prediction model is pre-trained with artificial trajectory data sampled from the uncertainty maps, and then fine-tuned with the signal measurements collected in the field. In the training process, auxiliary outputs are implemented to overcome overfitting and improve the robustness of the system. Our extensive experiments demonstrate the outstanding performance of the proposed MapLoc system.

High‐Resolution Snowstorm Measurements and Retrievals Using Cross‐Platform Multi‐Frequency and Polarimetric Radars

AbstractMany studies have performed microphysical retrievals using radars of different frequencies, platforms, and methodologies. However, little is known about the consistency of retrievals derived from different radar platforms (i.e., airborne or spaceborne vs. ground‐based) and their methodologies. This study is the first to directly compare snow mass‐weighted mean diameter (Dm) retrievals from both nadir‐pointing airborne multi‐frequency radars and ground‐based polarimetric range‐height indicator radar scans along the same airborne flight track with a resolution of . Dm retrievals between each method produced mean absolute errors of 0.49, 0.74, and 0.93 mm where the largest differences were between the ground and aircraft retrievals. A triple‐frequency analysis suggests the possibility that snow aggregates were generally composed of needles. These results can be used as a benchmark for comparing retrieval methodologies and highlight the continued uncertainty regarding the optimal approach for ice microphysical retrievals.