Continuation Of Current Policies Research Articles

Changes in the determinants and spatial distribution of under-five stunting in Bangladesh: Evidence from Bangladesh Demographic Health Surveys (BDHS) 1996-97, 2014 and 2017/18.

Bangladesh has experienced tremendous change in child nutrition over the past few decades, but there are large differences between different regions in progress made. The question is whether continuation of current policies will bring the progress needed to reach national and international targets on child nutrition security. Using national data BDHS 1996/97, 2014, and 2017, this study attempts to map such reductions across Bangladesh and to explore the distribution of covariate effects (joint effects) that are associated with childhood stunting over these two periods, overall and by region. The main contribution of this paper is to link observed stunting scores to a household profile. This implies that different variables are evaluated jointly with stunting to assess the likelihood of being associated with stunting. Overall, the covariates: 'Parental levels of education', 'children older than one year old', 'children live in rural area', 'children born at home' formed the country winning profile in 1996/97, whereas parental levels of education disappear in the winning profile for children stunted in 2014. This implies that over the years, Bangladesh has been successful in addressing parental education for long-term reductions in child undernutrition. In addition, the diversity of profiles of households with stunted children increases over time, pointing at successful targeting of policies to increase food security among children over the period. However, in areas where improvements have been insignificant, also the profiles remain stable, indicating a failure of policies to reach the target populations. The analysis for 2017 confirms this picture: the diversity of profiles remains high, with little change in the dominant profiles. Further decline in stunting is possible through region specific multipronged interventions, targeting children older than one year among vulnerable groups, in addition with strengthening family planning programs as larger families also have a higher risk to have stunted children. In general, the profiles in 2014 and 2017/18 are much more diverse than in 1996, which can be explained by the relative success of specific targeted policies in some divisions, while being much less successful in other regions. In sum, our results suggest that the challenge lies in the implementation of policies, rather than in the generic approach and assumed theory of change.

Cost-effectiveness of scaling up of hepatitis C screening and treatment: a modelling study in South Korea

BackgroundThe prices and the coverage of effective direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) to treat hepatitis C vary across countries. South Korea expanded DAAs coverage through national health insurance. This study aims to...

Outlook for clean air in the context of sustainable development goals

Abstract Air pollution is linked with many of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. Strategies aiming at the improved air quality interact directly with climate mitigation targets, access to clean energy services, waste management, and other aspects of socio-economic development. Continuation of current policies in the key emitting sectors implies that a number of sustainability goals will likely not be met within the next two decades: emissions of air pollutants would cause 40% more premature deaths from outdoor air pollution than today, carbon emissions would rise globally by 0.4% per year, while nearly two billion people would not have access to clean cooking. This paper examines integrated policies to put the world on track towards three interlinked goals of achieving universal energy access, limiting climate change and reducing air pollution. Scenario analysis suggests that these goals can be attained simultaneously with substantial benefits. By 2040, emissions of main pollutants are projected to drop by 60–80% relative to today, and associated health impacts are quantified at two million avoided deaths from ambient and household air pollution combined. In comparison to costs needed for the decarbonization of global economy, additional investments in air pollution control and access to clean fuels are very modest against major societal gains. However, holistic and systemic policy assessment is required to avoid potential trade-offs.

A value-based assessment of alternative US state pension plans

AbstractWe explore how the contract values of the various stakeholders of a typical US state civil servants pension fund are affected under the continuation of current policies and under alternative policies, such as changes in contribution, indexation and investment allocation policies. We find that all participant cohorts derive a substantial net benefit from the current pension contract, while all tax-paying cohorts make substantial contributions. The shift in value from tax payers to participants can be reduced substantially by having the latter make larger contributions or making indexation less generous. Under our baseline calibration, and continuation of existing policies, the chances are high that the fund's assets get depleted in the coming decades.

A Value-Based Approach to the Redesign of US State Pension Plans

This paper explores the financial sustainability of a typical U.S. state defined benefit pension fund under the continuation of current policies and under alternative policies, such as changes in contribution, indexation and investment allocation policies. We explore the "classic" asset-liability management (ALM) results, which indicate that a policy of conditional indexation may substantially improve the financial position of the fund. We also investigate the value-based ALM results, which provide a market-based evaluation of the net benefit changes to the various stakeholders of changes in the fund's policies. All cohorts of participants derive a substantial net benefit from the current pension contract, implying that tax payers have to make substantial contributions. The aforementioned adjustment measures can be instrumental in alleviating the burden on the tax payer, although this will happen at the cost of a reduction in the value of the contract to the fund participants.

A Value-Based Approach to Pension Redesign in the US State Plans

This paper explores the financial sustainability of a typical U.S. state defined-benefit pension fund under the continuation of current policies and under alternative policies, such as alternative contribution, indexation and investment allocation policies. We explore the "classic" asset-liability management (ALM) results, which indicate that a policy of conditional indexation may substantially improve the financial position of the fund. We also investigate the value-based ALM results, which provide a market-based evaluation of the net benefits of the contract to the various stakeholders. All participant cohorts under our simulation horizon derive a substantial net benefit from the pension contract, implying that tax payers make substantial contributions to this pension arrangement. The aforementioned measures can be instrumental in alleviating the burden on the tax payer, though this will happen at the cost of a reduction in the value of the contract to the participants.

Ring‐necked pheasant hens select managed Conservation Reserve Program grasslands for nesting and brood‐rearing

AbstractThe Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) has provided critical wildlife habitat for many species since 1985. However, the quality of this habitat for early successional species, such as ring‐necked pheasant (Phasianus colchicus), may decrease with field age. Late successional grasslands may lack valuable vegetative and structural diversity needed by pheasants, especially during nesting and brood‐rearing stages. Since 2004, the United States Department of Agriculture has required new CRP contracts to include plans for mid‐contract management, which could include discing and interseeding. The benefits of such practices have not been assessed, and continuation of current policy could be affected by the lack of information to support such practices. During 2005–2006 we evaluated nesting and brood‐rearing habitat used by radio‐marked hen pheasants in areas of northeastern Nebraska where portions of CRP fields had been recently disced and interseeded with legumes. Pheasant hens selected managed portions of CRP fields for both nesting and brood‐rearing. Hens selected nest sites with greater forb cover and vertical density. Hens with broods also selected sites with greater forb composition. Discing and legume interseeding appeared to be an effective strategy for increasing pheasant use of CRP fields. © 2012 The Wildlife Society.

Projecting trends in plant invasions in Europe under different scenarios of future land‐use change

ABSTRACTAim Recent studies of plant invasions in habitat types across different climatic regions of Europe have made it possible to produce a European map of plant invasions. Parallel research led to the formulation of integrated scenarios of future socio‐economic development, which were used to create spatially explicit scenarios of European land‐use change for the 21st century. Here we integrate these two research lines and produce the first spatially explicit projections of plant invasions in Europe for the years 2020, 2050 and 2080.Location The European Union (except Bulgaria and Romania), Norway and Switzerland.Methods We used vegetation plots from southern, central and north‐western Europe to quantify mean levels of invasion by neophytes (post‐1500 alien plants) for forest, grassland, urban, arable and abandoned land. We projected these values on the land‐use scenarios for 2020, 2050 and 2080, and constructed maps of future plant invasions under three socio‐economic scenarios assuming: (1) deregulation and globalization, (2) continuation of current policies with standing regulations, and (3) a shift towards sustainable development.Results Under all scenarios an increase in the level of invasion was projected for north‐western and northern Europe, and under the first two scenarios a decrease for some agricultural areas of eastern Europe where abandonment of agricultural land is expected. A net increase in the level of invasion over Europe was projected under scenarios 2 and 3.Main conclusions The polarization between more and less invaded regions is likely to increase if future policies are oriented on economic deregulation, which may result in serious future problems in some areas of Europe. However, an implementation of sustainability policies would not automatically restrict the spread of alien plants. Therefore invasions require specific policy approaches beyond the more general ones, which are currently on the policy agenda and were tested in the scenarios.

Fiscal Policy and Interest Rates: The Role of Sovereign Default Risk

Recent events have highlighted the potential importance of nonlinear efiects of flscal variables (notably debt and deflcits) on interest rates: While in times when government solvency is not a concern the standard crowding-out efiects are of moderate magnitude, in times when default risk becomes an issue the interest rate efiects can become very large. This paper provides new evidence on the magnitude of these efiects. For the case when default risk is not a concern, it uses an arbitrage-free term structure model to estimate the dynamic efiects of flscal policy shocks on interest rates along the entire maturity spectrum. For the case when default risk becomes a concern (thereby violating a central assumption of the term structure model), I present evidence based on EMU government bond spread regressions on time-varying efiects of national flscal policies on spreads as well as the time-varying sensitivity of yield spreads to international risk aversion as a function of the state of flscal policy. JEL classiflcation: E6, H6.

Back to the Future: A Long Term Solution to the Occupational Pensions Crisis

In the UK and elsewhere, defined benefit (DB) schemes are being replaced by defined contribution (DC) schemes. However DC schemes have some substantial weaknesses, and a continuation of current policies will probably lead to another pensions crisis in a few decades. There is an alternative which avoids the major defects of DC schemes. It is proposed that, if UK employers wish to replace their DB schemes, they should do so with something that looks like a career average revalued earnings (CARE) DB scheme to the members, but is funded by single premium deferred annuities (SPDAs) and looks like a DC scheme to the employer. Pension provision is outsourced to specialist providers (insurance companies), with the risk (and the decisions that must be made by members of a DC scheme) managed by insurers, not the employer or members.

Informing the US Energy Policy Debate with Threshold 21

There has been growing concern about the recent emergence of the critical challenges of energy availability and the impacts of climate change. Both are inextricably linked and dealing with them is fundamental to the progress of America and humanity. There are, however, a number of different views expressed, reflecting different assumptions, special interests, and partisan objectives. Decision-makers and the public need easy-to-use and transparent tools to better visualize, analyze, and understand the broader and longer-term implications of the varying underlying assumptions, policies, and strategies, including both their positive and negative impacts — both direct and indirect — and how to manage them. Threshold 21 (T21) the simulation model presented in this paper aims to become such a tool. The Millennium Institute has developed it over the last 24 years. The T21-USA model results indicate that a continuation of current policies and trends will lead the US to become increasingly dependent on foreign energy resources and more vulnerable to price fluctuations. Furthermore, alternative scenarios simulating improved CAFE and Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) show that major reductions in the US' resource consumption and pollution generation could be possible while stimulating the economy over the medium and longer term. Nevertheless, the model shows that unintended consequences, such as the Jevons Paradox, have to be taken into consideration when defining national energy policies.

Spatial concentration and deconcentration of household types in the Amsterdam region Effects of three scenarios of new construction

In the Netherlands, housing construction isvery much in the domain of public policy:quantity, quality and location of housing aresubject to public choice. In order to evaluatepossible locations and possible compositions ofthe housing construction in terms of dwellingtypes, the effects of alternative housingconstruction programmes have been simulatedusing a dynamic housing market simulation model– Socrates.With the same demographic and economicbackground, three housing constructionprogrammes were evaluated in terms of changesin concentration of certain household types(elderly, one-person, and low-incomehouseholds). The first one is a `continuationof current policy' variant. The second is the`demand' variant, in which housing constructionfollows housing demand. The third is arestrictive variant, in which housingconstruction follows demand, but within certainspatial restrictions.The results show that in the course of thecurrent and next decades a certainlevelling-off of existing concentrations willoccur. These tendencies are, however, onlymarginally affected by alternative housingconstruction programmes; demographic andeconomic trends have far greater impact on theconcentration of certain household types.

Carers and the Careless: The Prospects for the Health Service under the Tories

The re-election of a Conservative government will mean a continuation of current policies towards the National Health Service (NHS) which will be bad for the health of many women. It will mean a decline in the resources available to meet growing health needs; further expansion of the private sector; the 'commercialization' of various activities within the NHS itself, and the 'domestication' of caring through an even greater reliance on unpaid (usually female) labour in the home. These developments will affect the quality of women's lives as users of the NHS, as workers in the service and as carers of those for whom the state will no longer take responsibility. During the run-up to the 1987 election there was heated debate about the state of the NHS, and particularly about levels of health spending. While the figures are difficult to interpret, there can be no doubt that Conservative policy over the past few years has been to restrict the rate of growth of the NHS very severely, and this will certainly continue (Radical Statistics Health Group, 1987). It is generally accepted that, at minimum, a 2 per cent real increase in resources is needed each year in order just to keep pace with the increasing number of elderly people in the population and with developments in medical technology. However, plans for the next few years suggest that even this target will not be met. Growth is expected to fall to 1.4 per cent this year (1987-88) and to 0.9 per cent next year. In 1989-90 it is planned to be 1 per cent. Because the demand for services will be rising, this means that the health service will continue to be under serious financial strain (Robinson and Judge, 1987). For most people, the most obvious sign of dwindling resources is a reduction in the quantity and quality of basic services. This will continue to hit women hardest since they are the major users of the health service, both for themselves and on behalf of others, particularly children. Few will be willing and/or able to opt out into the private sector, and hence the burden of deteriorating standards of care will fall

Population changes and regional policies since the war

Eversley D. E. C. (1971) Population changes and regional policies since the war, Reg. Studies 5, 211–228. The relationship between post-war public planning policies and population movements, in the Standard Statistical Regions and identifiable sub-regions, is examined. The aim is to test whether the population shifts can be connected with governmental policies, considering the main facts of population change; migration movements and fertility; future projections; policies and their effect; and alternative approaches. The conviction is expressed that without governmental regional policies the situation would be far worse; we are moving towards a period of still greater equality of growth rates and population structures, but their realization is conditional on the continuation of current policies, and therefore under no circumstances should efforts be relaxed.