Contingent Behavior Method Research Articles

A valuation study to identify the determinants of the demand for time spent outdoors among users of hospital facilities, their willingness-to-pay for green infrastructure improvements, and the implications for planning

ABSTRACT Green infrastructure has been promoted as an urban planning tool for the achievement of health and environmental policy objectives. The capacity of economic valuation methods to estimate monetary benefit values for intangible goods, such as mental health and wellbeing, renders them useful in justifying green infrastructure interventions and guiding their implementation. In this case study we used stated preference methods to elicit cross-sectional data on the preferences of staff (n=118), visitors (n=88), and inpatients (n=35) of Musgrave Park Hospital in Northern Ireland, for improvements in the hospital’s outdoor grounds. To our knowledge, this is the first paper to use the contingent behavior method to examine the demand for time spent on the improved outdoor grounds of a hospital and the first to use the contingent valuation method to obtain the respective willingness-to-pay values. The results show that the three hospital user groups differed in their preferred types of green infrastructure and their motivations for using the outdoor grounds, an important input for planning the transformation of the outdoors. Other findings suggest that to maximize health and well-being benefits, complementary measures to address the issues of sedentary lifestyles and inadequate use of the outdoors as a stress-coping mechanism are needed.

Environmentally-Friendly Stadium Travel of Football Fans: A Stated Preferences Study

Drawing on a rational choice framework, this study investigates fans’ stated preferences for (more) environmentally-friendly stadium travel (bicycles/e-scooters) on game days. Data from fans of a German Football Bundesliga club were collected using an online survey in 2021 ( n = 1,652). Travel preferences were assessed using the contingent behavior method. The results of regression analyses indicate that the likelihood of using environmentally-friendly transportation means increases with perceived benefits, while perceived costs decrease this likelihood. Specifically, perceived environmental benefits and being an environmental role model had a positive effect, while monetary, convenience, and time-related costs had a negative effect.

Recreational impacts of an oil spill in a world heritage area: a combined travel cost and contingent behaviour method approach

ABSTRACT Fiordland National Park is a UNESCO world heritage site that draws hundreds of thousands of visitors every year. An oil spill in this area could impact the visitation to not only Milford Sound, but to all of Fiordland National Park and the lower South Island. This study examined the impacts on the recreational value of Fiordland National Park under three oil spill scenarios in Milford Sound. Using a combined approach of travel cost and contingent behaviour methods revealed a consumer surplus of a visit to Fiordland National Park of NZD 534.76 and NZD 1,449.28 per person, with and without accommodation respectively. This leads to an aggregate consumer surplus estimate ranging from NZD 427.8–1,159.4 million for Fiordland National Park based on pre-COVID visitor numbers. The three oil spill scenarios represented small, medium, and large-scale oil spills, limiting various water-based activities at each step. This showed that for each increase in oil level, there was a decrease of NZD 164.10 and NZD 923.73 per person with and without accommodation respectively. This leads to an estimated minimum decrease of the welfare of visitors by 30.7–63.7 percent, or a decrease of NZD 131.3–734.0 million in the annual recreational value. Key Policy Highlights Aggregate annual recreational value estimates ranging from NZD 427.8 million – NZD 1.6 billion pre-COVID19. An oil spill occurring in Milford Sound demonstrated a minimum annual recreational value decrease of NZD 131.3 million over five years. These results demonstrate the need for appropriately funded prevention and preparedness policies to minimize possible damages.

Farmers facing changed urban dietary patterns: whether and what to adapt?

To cope with the impacts of shifts in food consumption patterns required to reduce environmental problems, farmers will have to adapt at farm level. We explore farmers’ intentions and preferred options to adapt in the metropolitan region of Vienna, Austria, in response to changed food demand among the Viennese population. In doing so, we consider changed food consumption patterns for (1) regional food, (2) organic food, and (3) meat in several scenarios. By applying the contingent behavior method to farmers in a survey, we assess farm adaptations with respect to production orientation (crop and livestock production patterns) and production mode (conventional or organic). The results show that, depending on the farm type, farmers tend to make specific contextual adaptations in production orientation. Accordingly, less specialized farmers are more likely to employ transformative adaptations. Most farmers who adapt production orientation, however, tend to employ incremental adaptations, i.e., extensions of what is already done. A logit model indicates that, among changed food consumption patterns, increasing regional food consumption is the most influential factor in farmers’ decision to adapt production orientation. Different adaptation paths were generated demonstrating the need for coordinated policy measures that consider the diversity of the different farm types to further encourage farm adaptations and reduce environmental risks associated with modern farming.

The impact of COVID-19 on the value of coastal recreational resource from the perspective of recreational behaviour change: Evident from China

The Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak took a heavy toll on the global tourism industry in 2020, and affected the value realization of coastal recreational ecosystem service. From the micro perspective, this paper combines travel cost method with contingent behaviour method to obtain residents' actual behaviour and contingent behaviour data, and discusses the impact of the outbreak of COVID-19 on the value realization of coastal recreational resources from the perspective of the change in residents' recreational behaviour in Qingdao, China. Residents are observed to significantly reduce their outdoor activities in response to the COVID-19. The number of visits to the beach decreases by 25.2% when there is an outbreak, and decreases by 0.064% for every 1% increase in the number of confirmed cases, which is used to represent the severity of the epidemic. The asymmetries effects of epidemic situation on residents' recreational behaviour show that the improvements lead to larger and more significant impacts than the deteriorations. The disappearance of the pandemic crisis will provide considerable welfare for the citizens in Qingdao, which reaches to 1.9323 billion CNY/year. If the number of confirmed cases deteriorates to 900, the environmental welfare loss will be 0.3366 billion CNY/year. Additionally, we test the effects of residents' cognitive variables, and find that risk perception can strengthen the negative impacts of COVID-19 cases. Furthermore, the deteriorations in the environmental attributes are found to have stronger impacts on the number of visits than the improvements. This paper provides empirical-support results about the change of coastal recreational value through the evaluation of recreational behaviours in the post-epidemic period, which will give important implications for government's marine ecosystem restoration and coastal management work.

Residents' acceptability and response to the water-pricing policy to reduce marine pollution caused by domestic sewage

Domestic sewage has huge negative impacts on the marine environment. This paper discusses whether residents can accept the water-pricing policy that collects funds to improve sewage treatment technologies to reduce marine pollutants by raising water prices. First, the contingent valuation method is used to elicit residents’ acceptability of a water-price increase. Second, the contingent behavior method is applied to observe residents’ responses to the pricing policy. The results show that residents can accept an increase of 0.90 CNY/m3 in water price on average in Qingdao, China. We also find that people with low income show low acceptability of the water-pricing policy. Additionally, the water price plays a positive role in promoting residents’ willingness to reduce water use. The information transmission will encourage people to adopt water-saving behavior and strengthen the impact of the water-pricing policy on water-saving behavior. This paper provides important implications to establish a water-pricing policy to reduce the negative impacts of domestic sewage on the marine environment.

Estimating the Recreational Value and Setting Entrance Fees during Early Development of Ecotourism Sites: the Case of Bataan Natural Park

Ecotourism sites are established to provide “sustainable tourism,” bring economic opportunities to the local communities, and can potentially augment funding for conserving protected areas by charging entrance fees. A dilemma, however, faced by managers during the early stages of the development of ecotourism sites is the uncertain effect of increasing entrance fees on demand. This creates an apprehension to use entrance fees as a sustainable financing mechanism for conservation. This study used a combination of revealed and stated preference approaches to provide information on the recreational benefits and empirical guidance in setting entrance fee surcharges for proposed improvements in two eco-tourism sites of Bataan Natural Park – specifically, Ambon-Ambon and Lumutan Eco-trail and Tala River. Count data regression models were used to estimate the consumer surplus of visitors for the current conditions. In contrast, the contingent behavior method was used to measure the visitors’ willingness to pay (WTP) for improvements in the site attributes. Results of the count data models indicate the total consumer surplus from the ecotourism sites in their current state is significantly higher than the site's cost of improvement and maintenance. Furthermore, tourists are willing to pay more than the currently charged entrance fees. Protest and uncertainty corrected mean WTP for the improved condition are approximately PHP 130.90 for a visit to the eco-trail and PHP 108.50 for a visit to the river. The optimal and revenue-increasing entrance surcharge is estimated to be within PHP 15–76 for the Tala River and PHP 15–114 for the Falls. The results may have implications on providing alternative financing for protecting and conserving other natural parks and protected areas in their early stages of development in the Philippines.

Heterogeneous preferences towards quality changes in water recreation: Latent class model for contingent behavior data

In this study, we evaluated the benefits of recreation in Lake Puruvesi in eastern Finland before the implementation of planned management actions. We used the approach of the combined travel cost and contingent behavior (TC–CB) method, which allows water quality levels not currently present to be taken into account. We extend the classic analysis with the latent class model for recreation demand and with a spatial interpretation of classes in order to understand the spatial pattern of the water recreation. Using the latent class model, we defined the visitor groups with different behavioral responses to quality changes and found visitor groups relevant for extending the welfare measures to the evaluation of management activities in other lakes in Finland. Summerhouse owners and tourists visiting less frequently and coming from longer distances shifted their number of recreation visits downwards due to even minor deterioration in water quality. As a result, the annual consumer surplus declined steadily alongside water quality. The recreational behavior for tourists was also spatially concentrated. Instead, for local visitors visiting several times per week only the worst level of water quality had an effect on the number of visits and the annual consumer surplus.

Non-residential demand for recycled water for outdoor use in a groundwater constrained environment

Many parts of the world, including Australia, are facing acute groundwater shortages. Recycled wastewater is emerging as an important alternative, sustainable, substitute for groundwater. However, before water utilities can invest in water recycling projects, they need information on the demand for recycled water. A comprehensive literature search revealed no study reporting a price elasticity estimate for recycled water for outdoor use by large non-residential users. This paper contributes to this knowledge gap by conducting a case study in Perth, Western Australia. Using a contingent behaviour method, we find that the price elasticity varies between -0.76 and -0.97, depending on the extent of restriction placed on access to groundwater. Using a contingent valuation method, we estimate the willingness-to-pay for recycled water for outdoor use, by a representative organisation to be $AUD112/ML. We also find that the willingness-to-pay for recycled water varies with land use type, with agriculture and horticulture the sector with the highest willingness-to-pay.

The Effect of Improving Cycleway Environment on the Recreational Benefits of Bicycle Tourism.

Bicycle tourism is one of the popular physical activities for sport tourists. Since the physical environment may affect bicycling behavior, it becomes an important determinant for cyclists to choose a cycleway. Exploratory factor analysis is performed to extract the perception of environmental quality of cyclists into five main factors, including safety, light facilities, lane design, landscape, and environment cleanliness. The contingent behavior method (CBM) is adopted to measure the quality improvement projects in different scenarios of light facility and landscape improvement. The results showed that the improvement projects increased the intended number of trips and the recreational benefits of cyclists.

Households' responses to climate change: contingent behavior evidence from rural South Africa

AbstractWe investigate households' decisions regarding livelihood activities in response to future climate change in the Eastern Cape, South Africa. We use the contingent behavior method and account for unobserved heterogeneity in order to overcome problems associated with limited data, collinearity and endogeneity. We characterize the climate change with two types of climate change scenarios: dry-spells and wet-spells. Results show that moderate and extreme increases in dry-spells increase adoption of off-farm activities such as casual labor and small business, and decrease adoption of on-farm activities such as gardening. We find opposite cases for mild or moderate wet-spells. Our results also show that households tend to diversify their livelihood portfolios in response to a moderate increase in dry-spells and a mild increase in wet-spells. Some household characteristics are also important in influencing some types of activities, including household's health status, gender of the household head, and household's prior experience.

Non-market Value of Winter Outdoor Recreation in the Swiss Alps: The Case of Val Bedretto

A longstanding interest from environmental economists on winter outdoor recreation has overlooked activities practiced outside the boundaries of winter resorts—e.g. ski mountaineering. This paper implements the Travel Cost Method to estimate consumer surplus per season derived from ski mountaineering and snowshoeing in Val Bedretto—a valley located in the Swiss Alps. In addition, the Contingent Behavior Method is used to estimate the changes in welfare associated with the construction of an alpine center that would provide services aiming to reduce the risk of injury and death associated with winter outdoor recreation. The data is analyzed by means of latent class panel on-site count models. The latent class approach allows us to identify subpopulations that benefit from the alpine center. The results show that 33% of visitors would experience an increase in their consumer surplus per season equivalent to €31 per visitor.

Analysis of optimal timing of tourism demand recovery policies from natural disaster using the contingent behavior method

This paper examines the applicability of contingent behavior (hereafter, CB) method for analyzing dynamic processes and efficient policies in tourism demand recovery. The CB questionnaires used for this study used a hypothetical disaster situation of bird flu in Kyoto, Japan. Safety, event, visitor information, and price discounting policies were designed accordingly. Respondents were then asked about their willingness to travel time. The results showed the optimal timing for devising pertinent policies during the year. We found that the first step requires a safety information announcement, within one week, immediately after disaster site decontamination. The second step is the implementation of event information policy within 24th to 36th week after the disaster. The third step constitutes announcing visitor information within the 37th to 52nd week after the second step. The final step is the implementation of price discounting policy, until the 52nd week, immediately after the third step.

Service quality improving effects and recreational benefits for sports tourism—A case study

Service quality is one of many crucial items for sport event participants. Using Sun Moon Lake Swimming Carnival Event as an example, this study measures the perception of service quality for various participant groups and their associated recreational benefits from the demand model. Three service quality clusters, interaction and information, physical facility improving, and program and outcome, were extracted. Later, the contingent behavior method was used to measure the hypothetical benefits from service quality improvements. This study’s findings discover that the amenity of Sun Moon Lake and its surroundings at current status is not sufficient to make participants come back. Findings show that an improvement in the service quality of sports program and the outcome will result in an NT$85.78 million consumer surplus gain, with the facility improvement producing a gain of NT$72.90 million arising simply from the event in each year. Therefore, recreation managers may find it justifiable to improve an event’s service quality in this regard.

Estimating the environmental effects and recreational benefits of cultivated flower land for environmental quality improvement in Taiwan

AbstractThe main purpose of this study is to measure environmental effects and recreational benefits under different hypothetical scenarios program, involving quality improvement in Tien‐Wei Highway Garden, which is the biggest cultivated flower land in Taiwan. The contingent behavior model was adopted. The data combined actual number of trips under current quality of environment combined and the intended number of trips for expected scenarios of environmental quality improvement and congestion mitigation. For the empirical model, on‐site Poisson model was performed to correct truncated and endogenous stratification issues from on‐site surveys. The results show that the estimated average consumer surplus is greater in contingent behavior method than the one in the traditional travel cost model. Also, the estimated recreational benefits in contingent behavior method are more precise than those in the traditional travel cost method. The environment benefits to consumers are communicated with the programs that changes in environment quality. Meanwhile, the incremental economic benefits comprise the gain associated with the improvement of environmental quality.

Welfare effects of mining externalities: a combined travel cost and contingent behaviour study

ABSTRACTThis paper applied the combination of travel cost method and contingent behaviour method to estimate the change in the recreational use value of the tourism site as a result of the adjacent mine implementation. The externalities considered were the visibility of the mine to the highest peaks of the area, traffic and noise effects, impacts on endangered aquatic species, and impacts on recreational possibilities. The data, containing five observations from each respondent, were analysed with the negative binomial count data model. The results show the sensitivity of visitors to the geographical scope and magnitude of mining externalities and to the visibility of the mine to the highest peaks. Moreover, the number of intended visits to the area correlates with gender, age, and recreational activities. Compared to an average visitor of the site, anglers, paddlers, and overnight hikers were subject to larger losses in welfare. Alternative scenarios on future mining externalities correspond to 29%–86% reductions in annual number of trips, corresponding to an annual welfare loss of 196–577€ for an average tourist.

Estimating the biomitigation benefits of Integrated Multi-Trophic Aquaculture: A contingent behavior analysis

Using the contingent behavior method, we estimate the benefits derived from the biomitigative effects of Integrated Multi-Trophic Aquaculture (IMTA) in the farming of Atlantic salmon. We asked a sample of Canadians how their farmed Atlantic salmon consumption choices would be affected by the availability of IMTA products in response to the decreased external costs they would impose on the surrounding marine environment. We used a random-effects negative binomial model to estimate their different demand functions and, from them, measures of increases in consumer surplus arising from the availability of IMTA products. We estimated a lower bound for the aggregate benefit that current salmon consumers in Canada would derive from the introduction of IMTA salmon of about CAD 280 million/year, while less restrictive assumptions about the representativeness of our sample would lead to an aggregate figure of about CAD 1.5 billion/year. We also found that consumers would benefit from proper labeling of farmed salmon, since conventionally farmed salmon and IMTA salmon are considered non-substitutes, the latter being a normal good and the former an inferior good for the typical consumer. We find that there is room for improving welfare by disseminating information to enhance consumer understanding of IMTA production techniques.

Economic Value of Instream Flow for Non-Commercial Whitewater Boating Using Recreation Demand and Contingent Valuation Methods

Whitewater river kayaking and river rafting require adequate instream flows that are often adversely affected by upstream water diversions. However, there are very few studies in the USA of the economic value of instream flow to inform environmental managers. This study estimates the economic value of instream flow to non-commercial kayakers derived using a Travel Cost Method recreation demand model and Contingent Valuation Method (CVM), a type of Contingent Behavior Method (CBM). Data were obtained from a visitor survey administered along the Poudre River in Colorado. In the dichotomous choice CVM willingness to pay (WTP) question, visitors were asked if they would still visit the river if the cost of their trip was $Y higher, and the level of $Y was varied across the sample. The CVM yielded an estimate of WTP that was sensitive to flows ranging from $55 per person per day at 300 Cubic Feet per Second (CFS) to a maximum $97 per person per day at flows of 1900 CFS. The recreation demand model estimated a boater's number of trips per season. We found the number of trips taken was also sensitive to flow, ranging from as little as 1.63 trips at 300 CFS to a maximum number of 14 trips over the season at 1900 CFS. Thus, there is consistency between peak benefits per trip and number of trips, respectively. With an average of about 100 non-commercial boaters per day, the maximum marginal values per acre foot averages about $220. This value exceeds irrigation water values in this area of Colorado.

温暖化による世界自然遺産への影響分析―仮想行動法によるレクリエーション価値の変化の推計―

日本では，1992年にUNESCOの世界遺産条約を締約した後，2013年末までに17件が世界遺産リストに登録されている．そのうち，白神山地はそこに広がるブナの原生的自然林およびそれに付随する公益的機能によって世界自然遺産に登録されているが，そのブナが温暖化の進行により衰退の危機に瀕している．もし世界遺産登録後のモニタリングにより顕著な普遍的価値を失っていると判断されると，世界遺産リストから抹消されることとなる．本研究では，温暖化による世界自然遺産への影響として白神山地の世界遺産登録抹消を想定し，それによる白神山地観光訪問への影響を分析した．その際，旅行費用法に基づく仮想行動法を用いて，白神山地のレクリエーション価値の変化を推計した．

Impacts of water demand side policies on Mongolian residential users

The water industry in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia, experiences water scarcity and managerial and economic problems due to global warming and financial crises. This paper explores several possible solutions by analysing householders' stated attitudes towards and stated (predicted) responses to different demand side policies. Using data from a survey of approximately 660 households (HHs) in Ulaanbaatar, this research is a seminal study of Mongolian residential water demand and is the first time the contingent behaviour method (CBM) has been employed to estimate price elasticity of water demand in this country. The CBM is particularly useful in data-poor environments, where one cannot use actual data to generate estimates. In this study, researchers use stated responses to a series of hypothetical changes in price to generate estimates of the price elasticity of demand for water of different types of HHs, including residents of formal apartments and those living in informal Ger areas, are characterized by a low level of public services, including water and sanitation services of the city. Householders' attitudes towards different price and non-price policies are also examined. The findings are of interest to those wishing to postpone water scarcity by better managing urban residential water demand – particularly in transit and developing economies.