Heterogeneous preferences towards quality changes in water recreation: Latent class model for contingent behavior data

Abstract

In this study, we evaluated the benefits of recreation in Lake Puruvesi in eastern Finland before the implementation of planned management actions. We used the approach of the combined travel cost and contingent behavior (TC–CB) method, which allows water quality levels not currently present to be taken into account. We extend the classic analysis with the latent class model for recreation demand and with a spatial interpretation of classes in order to understand the spatial pattern of the water recreation. Using the latent class model, we defined the visitor groups with different behavioral responses to quality changes and found visitor groups relevant for extending the welfare measures to the evaluation of management activities in other lakes in Finland. Summerhouse owners and tourists visiting less frequently and coming from longer distances shifted their number of recreation visits downwards due to even minor deterioration in water quality. As a result, the annual consumer surplus declined steadily alongside water quality. The recreational behavior for tourists was also spatially concentrated. Instead, for local visitors visiting several times per week only the worst level of water quality had an effect on the number of visits and the annual consumer surplus.