Contingency Strategies Research Articles

The Association of the Disturbed Degree of Job Stressful Events, Physical Data and Quality of Life in Allied Personnel of Outpatient Department

Interactions between allied personnel and patients that occur during the provision of healthcare services may affect patient evaluations of the quality of medical care received. The many patients served and stresses faced every day by allied personnel may disturb their physical and psychological health and negatively affect their quality of life. The aim of this study is to explore the association among stressful job-related events, physical data, and quality of life in allied personnel who work in outpatient departments. This cross-sectional study used structured questionnaires and physical-data tests. The participants were recruited from a medical center in southern Taiwan. A total of 141 valid questionnaires were obtained, with a response rate of 88.1%. Larger differences between systolic and diastolic blood pressure and greater disturbed feelings toward stressful events were both associated with poorer quality of life in participants. Furthermore, the internal stressors related to the context of job and hospital sites impacted the quality of life of participants more than the external stressors related to patients or outsiders. The results of the present study may serve as a reference for nursing departments in medical institutions to establish contingency strategies for job stressful events and to enhance and promote the quality of life of allied personnel working in outpatient departments.

Mapping the zoonotic niche of Marburg virus disease in Africa.

BackgroundMarburg virus disease (MVD) describes a viral haemorrhagic fever responsible for a number of outbreaks across eastern and southern Africa. It is a zoonotic disease, with the Egyptian rousette (Rousettus aegyptiacus) identified as a reservoir host. Infection is suspected to result from contact between this reservoir and human populations, with occasional secondary human-to-human transmission.MethodsIndex cases of previous human outbreaks were identified and reports of infection in animals recorded. These data were modelled within a species distribution modelling framework in order to generate a probabilistic surface of zoonotic transmission potential of MVD across sub-Saharan Africa.ResultsAreas suitable for zoonotic transmission of MVD are predicted in 27 countries inhabited by 105 million people. Regions are suggested for exploratory surveys to better characterise the geographical distribution of the disease, as well as for directing efforts to communicate the risk of practices enhancing zoonotic contact.ConclusionsThese maps can inform future contingency and preparedness strategies for MVD control, especially where secondary transmission is a risk. Coupling this risk map with patient travel histories could be used to guide the differential diagnosis of highly transmissible pathogens, enabling more rapid response to outbreaks of haemorrhagic fever.

A comprehensive contingency management framework for supply chain disruption risk management

With globalisation and the advancement of information and communication technology, supply chain network structure has become more and more complicated with operational uncertainties and disruptions increasingly exacerbated. In this paper, we propose a comprehensive emergency management framework to manage supply chain disruption risks. Our framework integrates risk identification, risk assessment, and a combination of two contingency strategies. These two strategies are robust inventory control and virtual dual sourcing which can effectively mitigate supply chain disruptions. We then present a case study where Delphi Co. managed the disruptions in its supply chains during the 2008 Olympic Games in Beijing, China. Through this case study, we show the validity of our comprehensive emergency management framework. Finally, our framework can improve supply chain sustainability. For example, its strategy of virtual dual sourcing can keep a supply chain sufficiently lean while minimising the effect of supplier disruption.

English

Today’s world is one with increasing use of online access to services. One part of this which is growing hurriedly is Internet Banking. To provide customers with safe, consistent,robust online environment to do online banking the banks should implement “best of breed“ technologies to authenticate customers identities when they log in, to guarantee that their data is transmitted securely and consistently Bank should have best backup and contingency strategies and should formulate best security plans and practices. This paper tries to explore several of Technologies and Security Standards the different researchers have recommended to banks for safe internet banking and comparison of number of security systems based on the recommendations given by these authors for secure online banking.

Meeting Deadlines of Scientific Workflows in Public Clouds with Tasks Replication

The elasticity of Cloud infrastructures makes them a suitable platform for execution of deadline-constrained workflow applications, because resources available to the application can be dynamically increased to enable application speedup. Existing research in execution of scientific workflows in Clouds either try to minimize the workflow execution time ignoring deadlines and budgets or focus on the minimization of cost while trying to meet the application deadline. However, they implement limited contingency strategies to correct delays caused by underestimation of tasks execution time or fluctuations in the delivered performance of leased public Cloud resources. To mitigate effects of performance variation of resources on soft deadlines of workflow applications, we propose an algorithm that uses idle time of provisioned resources and budget surplus to replicate tasks. Simulation experiments with four well-known scientific workflows show that the proposed algorithm increases the likelihood of deadlines being met and reduces the total execution time of applications as the budget available for replication increases.

Policy Compliance of Smokers on a Tobacco-Free University Campus

Objectives: To explore factors influencing compliance with campus tobacco policies and strategies to increase compliance. Participants: Sixty tobacco smokers (April 2012). Methods: A 22-item intercept-interview with closed- and open-ended questions was conducted with smokers in adjacent compliant and noncompliant areas at 1 university with a 100% tobacco ban. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics and content analysis. Results: Most reported that the smoking policy was not enforced. Noncompliant smokers had less knowledge of locations where tobacco use was permitted and were more likely to identify their smoking location as compliant and had knowingly violated the policy. Choice of location to smoke was related to convenience and a desire to follow the policy. Smokers recommended consequences for noncompliance and structures that accommodated smoking to increase adherence to the tobacco ban. Conclusions: Additional education, environmental, and contingency strategies are needed to increase compliance with the policy banning tobacco use on this campus.

First Barents Sea Oilfield Development Emphasizes Oil Spill Preparedness

This article, written by Editorial Manager Adam Wilson, contains highlights of paper SPE 156773, ’Implementation of the Oil Spill Preparedness for the Goliat Offshore Oilfield Development—The First Oilfield Development in the Barents Sea,’ by Erik Bjornbom and Ole Hansen, Eni Norge; Frode Engen, Statoil; and Sjur W. Knudsen, Norwegian Clean Seas Association for Operating Companies, prepared for the 2012 SPE/APPEA International Conference on Health, Safety, and Environment in Oil and Gas Exploration and Production, Perth, Australia, 11-13 September. The paper has not been peer reviewed. The Goliat field will be the first offshore oil field in the Barents Sea and the world’s northernmost offshore oil field. The field is in the southwestern part of the Barents Sea, close to the coastline in an environmentally sensitive area. The implementation of the Goliat oil spill preparedness plan will introduce new technologies and methods, the results of projects and initiatives developed in cooperation with the Norwegian Clean Seas Association for Operating Companies (NOFO). This will give an increased oil spill response capability, especially for the coastal zone. Goliat Field Development The Goliat field is an oil and gas discovery in the southwestern Barents Sea. Goliat contains two main oil-bearing reservoirs (Realgrunnen and Kobbe) with 28×106 std m3 of recoverable oil reserves. In addition, the field contains 8.8×109 std m3 of gas. The field is approximately 85 km from the city of Hammerfest in the county of Finnmark and approximately 50 km southeast of the Snøhvit offshore gas field (Fig. 1). The water depth in the license area is between 248 and 436 m. The Goliat field is to be developed by 22 subsea wells drilled from eight tem-plates linked to a circular floating production, storage, and offloading (FPSO) facility (Fig. 2). The Goliat development represents one of the largest industrial projects ever undertaken in northern Norway. The well stream will be processed on the FPSO, and the oil will be exported to market using tankers. During the first phase, produced gas will be reinjected to provide pressure drive. This will, in addition to the injection of seawater, attain the total pressure drive necessary to achieve optimal production of the resources. The facility will run on power supplied from land combined with an onboard power-generation system. In 2009, the Norwegian parliament approved the plan for development and operation for the Goliat field, with seven specific conditions that the project needs to fulfill. For the first time in Norway, one of the specific conditions was related to oil spill preparedness: “In the light of the particular challenges in the northern areas and the Goliat field’s proximity to the coast, oil spill contingency strategies must be assigned very high priority. The operator shall carry out a detailed evaluation of the infrastructure within the area of influence of potential polluting emissions and discharges from the Goliat field. The operator shall implement measures designed to consolidate the oil spill contingency strategies in the affected municipalities … .”

Ordering policies for a dual sourcing supply chain with disruption risks

Purpose: The main purpose of this article is to explore the trade-off between ordering policies and disruption risks in a dual-sourcing network under specific (or not) service level constraints, assuming that both supply channels are susceptible to disruption risks. Design/methodology/approach: Stochastic newsvendor models are presented under both the unconstrained and fill rate constraint cases. The models can be applicable for different types of disruptions related among others to the supply of raw materials, the production process, and the distribution system, as well as security breaches and natural disasters. Findings: Through the model, we obtain some important managerial insights and evaluate the value of contingency strategies in managing uncertain supply chains. Originality/value: This paper attempts to combine explicitly disruption management with risk aversion issues for a two-stage supply chain with two unreliable suppliers.

Third trimester ultrasound for the prediction of the large for gestational age fetus in low‐risk population and evaluation of contingency strategies

Evaluation of the effectiveness of third trimester fetal biometry and Doppler studies in predicting the birth of a large for gestational age neonate (LGA ≥ 95(th) centile). Assessment of the value of integrated models (combining maternal characteristics, first trimester parameters, third trimester fetal biometry) and the usefulness of contingency strategies. Observational cross-sectional study on 2308 uncomplicated singleton pregnancies examined at 11 to 14 weeks and at 30 to 34 weeks. Ultrasound estimated fetal weight (EFW, area under the curve (AUC) = 0.83) was the best single predictor of LGA. Maternal weight, delta nuchal translucency and EFW were independent predictors for the integrated model, but the latter was not statistically better (AUC = 0.84) than using EFW alone. The detection rates for LGA were 72.5% and 73.7% for a 25% screen positive rate, by EFW and the third trimester integrated model respectively. A contingency strategy of rescanning 50% of the population in the third trimester according to the risk estimation by a first trimester prediction model results in detection rate of 64.7% for LGA for the same 25% screen positive rate (AUC = 0.78). Third trimester ultrasound is an effective screening modality for identifying fetal macrosomia. A contingency strategy utilizing first trimester parameters can reduce the need for unnecessary examinations.

Performance of third‐trimester ultrasound for prediction of small‐for‐gestational‐age neonates and evaluation of contingency screening policies

To assess the performance of third-trimester fetal biometry and fetal Doppler studies for the prediction of small-for-gestational-age (SGA) neonates, and to explore contingency strategies using a first-trimester prediction model based on maternal and fetal parameters and third-trimester ultrasound. This was an observational cross-sectional study of uncomplicated singleton pregnancies. Risk assessment for chromosomal abnormality was carried out in 4702 pregnancies using a combination of ultrasound markers (fetal nuchal translucency thickness (NT) and nasal bone assessment) and biochemistry (free beta-human chorionic gonadotropin (β-hCG) and pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A (PAPP-A)) at 11 to 13 + 6 weeks. Maternal demographic characteristics and method of conception were recorded. Third-trimester (30-34 weeks) fetal biometry (biparietal diameter (BPD), head circumference (HC), abdominal circumference (AC) and femur length (FL)) and umbilical artery (UA) and middle cerebral artery Doppler studies were performed routinely in a subgroup (n = 2310). Reference ranges for birth weight were constructed using the cohort of 4702 women, and neonates were classified as small (SGA, ≤ 5th centile) or appropriate (AGA) for gestational age. First-trimester, third-trimester and integrated first- and third-trimester prediction models for SGA were constructed using regression analysis and three different contingency strategies of rescanning in the third trimester were investigated. According to the areas under the receiver-operating characteristics curves (AUCs), AC (AUC = 0.85) and ultrasound-estimated fetal weight (EFW, AUC = 0.87) were equally good predictors of SGA. The model was marginally improved by the addition of UA Doppler, smoking status and first-trimester indices (free β-hCG and PAPP-A multiples of the median) (combined model, AUC = 0.88), but the difference was not statistically significant. A contingency strategy of rescanning 50% of the population in the third trimester according to the risk estimated by a first-trimester prediction model yielded a detection rate of 79% for a 25% screen-positive rate. Third-trimester ultrasound is effective in screening for SGA in uncomplicated pregnancies. The use of a contingency screening policy can reduce the need for unnecessary examinations.

Contingency Strategies in Managing Supply Systems with Uncertain Lead‐Times

The globalization of markets and geographic dispersion of production facilities, combined with a heavy outsourcing of supply chain processes, have substantially increased the exposure of supply chains to supply lead‐times of long and uncertain nature. In this paper, we study the potential use of two contingency strategies on top of the conventionally used time buffer—statically planned safety lead‐time (SL)—approach to deal with the lead‐time uncertainty. These are (1) the ex‐ante planning for disruption safety stock (DSS) to be released when a “disruption” (in this case, late delivery of the order) occurs; and (2) the ex‐post dynamic emergency response (DER), which dynamically decides on the timing and size of an emergency order to be placed. Our work elaborates on the optimal parameter setting for these strategies, compares their added values when used to complement the traditional SL approach, and examines how the use of the contingency strategies affects the SL and corresponding cycle length of a periodic review system. Our research finds that: (1) the above contingency strategies reduce the reliance on the SL and are cost effective when the coefficient of variation (CV) of the uncertain lead‐time is high; (2) it is important to re‐optimize the SL to account for the contingency plans; and (3) re‐optimization of the cycle length to account for the presence of the contingency responses, as opposed to using an EOQ‐determined cycle length, does not significantly improve the cost performance. However, such re‐optimization does well in the SL approach when the CV of the uncertain lead‐time is high.

Optimal newsvendor policies for dual-sourcing supply chains: A disruption risk management framework

We propose generic single period (newsvendor-type) inventory models for capturing the trade-off between inventory policies and disruption risks in a dual-sourcing supply chain network both unconstrained and under service level constraints, where both supply channels are susceptible to disruption risks. The models are developed for both risk neutral and risk-averse decision-makers and can be applicable for different types of disruptions related among others to the supply of raw materials, the production process, and the distribution system, as well as security breaches and natural disasters. Analytical closed-form solutions are obtained and interesting managerial insights on the merit of contingency strategies in managing uncertainties and risks in dual-sourcing supply chains are discussed.

The role of movement restrictions and pre-emptive destruction in the emergency control strategy against CSF outbreaks in domestic pigs

Classical swine fever (CSF) outbreaks in domestic pig herds lead to the implementation of standard control measures according to legislative regulations. Ideal outbreak control entails the swift and efficient culling of all pigs on premises detected positive for CSF virus. Often all pig holdings around the detected cases are pre-emptively destroyed to exclude transmission into the neighbourhood. In addition to these measures, zones are defined in which surveillance and protection measures are intensified to prevent further distant disease spread. In particular, all movements are prohibited within standstill areas. Standstill also excludes the transport of fattened pigs to slaughter. Historical outbreaks provide evidence of the success of this control strategy. However, the extent to which the individual strategy elements contribute to this success is unknown. Therefore, we applied a spatially and temporally explicit epidemic model to the problem. Its rule-based formulation is tailored to a one-by-one model implementation of existing control concepts. Using a comparative model analysis the individual contributions of single measures to overall control success were revealed. From the results of the model we concluded that movement restrictions had the dominant impact on strategy performance suggesting a reversal of the current conceptual thinking. Additional measures such as pre-emptive culling only became relevant under imperfect compliance with movement restrictions. The importance of movement restrictions for the overall control success illustrates the need for explicit consideration of this measure when contingency strategies are being amended (e.g. emergency vaccination) and associated risks assessed.

OPTIMAL SOURCING DECISIONS FOR UNRELIABLE REVERSE SUPPLY CHAINS

In this work, we propose a single period stochastic inventory decision-making model that captures the trade-off between inventory policies and disruption risks for unreliable (both uncapacitated and capacitated) dual-sourcing reverse supply chain networks. Risk-management has emerged high at the corporate agenda as globalised supply chain networks are more stretched than ever due to offshoring and thus are more exposed to disruptions, while reverse logistics has been proven to constitute a profit center. In this environment, global companies have to scrutinize especially the role of major Asian economies (with large manufacturing capacities and huge markets), while conducting their strategic procurement planning. The developed model can be applied to a number of different scenario types encompassing various instances of disruptions to the collection of the end-of-life products, of the transportation system, and of the remanufacturing yield and capacity. Analytical closed-form solutions are obtained and important managerial insights on the merit of contingency strategies in managing uncertainties for reverse logistics networks are discussed.

The Unfinished Revolution: How a New Generation Is Reshaping Family, Work, and Gender in America - by Kathleen Gerson

The Unfinished Revolution: How a New Generation Is Reshaping Family, Work, and Gender in America. Kathleen Gerson. New York: Oxford University Press. 20 10. 297 pp. ISBN: 9780195371673. $24.95 cloth. A new generation's aspirations are never guarantees. Still, each cohort's dreams and fears are a critical barometer of shifting societal conventions and conversations. In Kathleen Gerson's new book The Unfinished Revolution: How a New Generation Is Reshaping Family, Work, and Gender in America, she provides an astute and compelling portrait of how young people today are redrawing crossroads of labor and love. Through an analysis of lifehistory interviews with 120 men and women between ages of 18 and 32, Gerson explores consequences of second-wave feminist revolution on ambitions of its nextgeneration sons and daughters. Two of Gerson's particularly gripping ideas are detailed here: role of gender flexibility in family adaption and growing disconnect between young men and young women's work and family fallback strategies. Gerson's participants grew up during a particularly tumultuous time in history of U.S. gender, economic, and caregiving politics. The late 20th century brought with it movement en masse of American women into workplace and related media fascination, as well as rise of diverse family forms and career patterns. What these young people saw and heard clearly shapes their current disconcerted sense of relationships and careers. Yet experiences of upheaval also provided many participants with an encouraging view of gender flexibility when they saw their parents go against well-tread gendered expectations to meet head-on pragmatic, ever-changing of their families. Throughout Gerson's analysis are threaded stories of divorced motiiers taking on successful breadwinning roles, fathers engaging anew in caregiving, and parents renegotiating gender in midst of crisis. Gerson reflects mat, although many of her participants' families faced economic crises and increasing parental discontent, homes where adults transgressed gender boundaries in breadwinning and parenting were better equipped to meet a child's economic and emotional needs (p. 216). One lesson Gerson draws for us - as scholars of family and everyday family members - is that we need to move away from our absorption on static family forms to more fully deliberate on varieties of family processes and pathways; she illustrates so well that the starting point does not determine destination (p. 215). Seeing positive effects of gender flexibility, for this generation, may serve to further loosen gender's grip on work and family life in decades to come. And for this generation of family scholars, seeing that static labels such as single parent or dual-earner household are often only temporary characterizations, not fixed categorizations, can help us focus on exploring ways families adapt to and take part in changing economic, relational, and gendered circumstances. Gender flexibility gives us one way to think about power of individually crossing gendered work and family boundaries, but this process, according to Gerson, is certainly not an easy or guaranteed course of action for this next generation. Individual and relational adjustment does not negate realities of unforgiving work structures, greedy institutions, and economic recessions. As such, fallback strategies are also central to Gerson's analysis. Most of her participants aspire to loving, committed, and equal partnerships and to rewarding and financially sustaining work lives. Yet facing an unsure future, children of gender revolution often express need to formulate backup plans or contingency strategies to compose a successful life. And new challenges, as we know, usually accompany new opportunities. Equal caregiving and wage earning in long-term relationships are ideal work and family aspirations for most young women whom Gerson interviewed; nonetheless, these women also anticipate or have already experienced necessity for a backup plan. …

Genetic algorithm-based optimization of water resources allocation under drought conditions

The efficient allocation of increasingly scarce water resources is a growing challenge worldwide, particularly during times of drought. This paper describes the development and application of an innovative technique to optimize the allocation of raw water supply to the city of London, UK during a period of drought in 2006. Using genetic algorithms, an optimization tool was developed to derive near-optimal operating strategies for the water company's multiple reservoir system for different projected rainfall scenarios and also to test the robustness of drought contingency strategies for operating the reservoirs down to a lower level under a severe drought condition. The project demonstrated that this approach is rigorous yet practical, the optimization technique is robust and effective and that optimal water allocation is an efficient measure to overcome water scarcity under drought conditions and mitigate consequent impacts. The potential application of genetic algorithms to the day to day operation of a complex water resource system represents a step-change in the industry's approach to managing such systems.

A stochastic inventory management model for a dual sourcing supply chain with disruptions

As companies continue to globalise their operations and outsource significant portion of their value chain activities, they often end up relying heavily on order replenishments from distant suppliers. The explosion in long-distance sourcing is exposing supply chains and shareholder value at ever increasing operational and disruption risks. It is well established, both in academia and in real-world business environments, that resource flexibility is an effective method for hedging against supply chain disruption risks. In this contextual framework, we propose a single period stochastic inventory decision-making model that could be employed for capturing the trade-off between inventory policies and disruption risks for an unreliable dual sourcing supply network for both the capacitated and uncapacitated cases. Through the developed model, we obtain some important managerial insights and evaluate the merit of contingency strategies in managing uncertain supply chains.

OP08.09: Concurrent and contingency strategies using first trimester markers for the prediction of pre-eclampsia in women with a priori high risk

OP08.09: Concurrent and contingency strategies using first trimester markers for the prediction of pre-eclampsia in women with a priori high risk

On the Value of Mitigation and Contingency Strategies for Managing Supply Chain Disruption Risks

We study a single-product setting in which a firm can source from two suppliers, one that is unreliable and another that is reliable but more expensive. Suppliers are capacity constrained, but the reliable supplier may possess volume flexibility. We prove that in the special case in which the reliable supplier has no flexibility and the unreliable supplier has infinite capacity, a risk-neutral firm will pursue a single disruption-management strategy: mitigation by carrying inventory, mitigation by single-sourcing from the reliable supplier, or passive acceptance. We find that a supplier’s percentage uptime and the nature of the disruptions (frequent but short versus rare but long) are key determinants of the optimal strategy. For a given percentage uptime, sourcing mitigation is increasingly favored over inventory mitigation as disruptions become less frequent but longer. Further, we show that a mixed mitigation strategy (partial sourcing from the reliable supplier and carrying inventory) can be optimal if the unreliable supplier has finite capacity or if the firm is risk averse. Contingent rerouting is a possible tactic if the reliable supplier can ramp up its processing capacity, that is, if it has volume flexibility. We find that contingent rerouting is often a component of the optimal disruption-management strategy, and that it can significantly reduce the firm’s costs. For a given percentage uptime, mitigation rather than contingent rerouting tends to be optimal if disruptions are rare.

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS UNCERTAINTY FOR WATER RESOURCES IN THE SAN JOAQUIN RIVER BASIN, CALIFORNIA1

ABSTRACT: A climate change impacts assessment for water resources in the San Joaquin River region of California is presented. Regional climate projections are based on a 1 percent per year CO2 increase relative to late 20th Century CO2 conditions. Two global projections of this CO2 increase scenario are considered (HadCM2 and PCM) during two future periods (2010 to 2039 and 2050 to 2079). HadCM2 projects faster warming than PCM. HadCM2 and PCM project wetter and drier conditions, respectively, relative to present climate. In the HadCM2 case, there would be increased reservoir inflows, increased storage limited by existing capacity, and increased releases for deliveries and river flows. In the PCM case, there would be decreased reservoir inflows, decreased storage and releases, and decreased deliveries. Impacts under either projection case cannot be regarded as more likely than the other. Most of the impacts uncertainty is attributable to the divergence in the precipitation projections. The range of assessed impacts is too broad to guide selection of mitigation projects. Regional planning agencies can respond by developing contingency strategies for these cases and applying the methodology herein to evaluate a broader set of CO2 scenarios, land use projections, and operational assumptions. Improved agency access to climate projection information is necessary to support this effort.