Ice Sheet Research Articles

Quantifying Pleistocene loess provenance in midcontinental North America using a mixing model: Implications for glacial lobe evolution along the southern Laurentide ice sheet

Quaternary glaciations have significantly impacted the midcontinental North American landscape, leaving behind a proglacial sediment record of glacial lake deposits, glacio-fluvial sand and gravel, and windblown loess. This paper aims to expand upon a previous study using detrital zircon provenance analysis to investigate midcontinental North American loess provenance in relation to the glacial history of the southern Laurentide ice sheet during the middle to late Pleistocene. The study incorporates previously published detrital zircon data from last glacial tills (representing the Huron-Erie Lobe, Lake Michigan Lobe, Green Bay Lobe, Superior Lobe, Des Moines Lobe, and James Lobe), middle to late Pleistocene loess from several sites along the Illinois and Mississippi River valleys, and suspended sediment load inputs from the Missouri River and Arkansas River. A statistical mixing model (DzMix version 2.2) was used to estimate the relative proportions of glacial and nonglacial sources to Wisconsin Episode, Illinois Episode, and pre–Illinois Episode age loess. We show that mixing models that include the modern suspended sediment loads of the Missouri and Arkansas Rivers significantly improve (up to 23% increase in cross-correlation value) the source characterization of Wisconsin Episode (last glacial) and Illinois Episode (penultimate glacial) loess deposits within the Mississippi River drainage basin. These river sources are dominant inputs for certain loess sites (as much as 51%), but their relative contributions are not static across time and space, which has implications for temporal and spatial differences in relative sediment source estimates and glacial and fluvial sediment transport evolution. Specifically, differences in relative sediment proportion estimates among Wisconsin, Illinois, and pre–Illinois Episode loess support previous evidence for the persistence of a Quebec-Labrador ice dome source through multiple glacial cycles, even with the inclusion of river sources in updated mixing models. Illinois and pre–Illinois Episode loess in the southern portion of our study area received ~20% detrital zircon input from sources similar to the present-day Missouri and Arkansas Rivers, suggesting that these river systems were contributing a significant amount of detritus to the lower Mississippi River valley region during the middle Pleistocene.

On the factors and the degree of their effect on subglacial melt and changes in the state of Antarctic subglacial lakes

ABSTRACT This study presents the results of mathematical modeling of the degree of effects of various characteristics on basal conditions in Antarctica. The model is based on the numerical solution of the one-dimensional Stefan problem. Five factors determining the nature of subglacial processes have been studied: ice thickness, snow-firn thickness, surface mass balance, air temperature, and geothermal heat flux. It was found that on the Antarctic plateau, slope, and coast, the geothermal heat flux has the greatest influence on the basal conditions. It is the heat flux that is responsible for the transition of most Antarctic lakes from a stable state to an active one (except for the ice stream regions). In areas where the ice sheet is thinner than 1,500 m, air temperature is the second most important factor affecting subglacial conditions. In areas where the glacier is thicker, the ice thickness begins to have a greater effect. The snow-firn thickness and snow accumulation have little effect on subglacial melt in most parts of Antarctica. Calculations over a 100-year period show that if meltwater accumulates on the bedrock rather than being completely channeled, it leads to a decrease in the average rate of subglacial melting by approximately 10 times.

Detecting water beneath ice sheets with satellite altimetry

Detecting water beneath ice sheets with satellite altimetry

Geochronology and ice‐flow modelling of the Late Quaternary glaciers on Mt. Soğanlı, Türkiye

ABSTRACTUnderstanding Earth's climate history through the chronology and reconstruction of palaeoglaciers is a central topic of palaeoclimatology. Examining the remnants of past glaciations preserved in isolated alpine environments provides insight into critical palaeoclimatic conditions. Accurate dating techniques, such as terrestrial cosmogenic nuclides, are crucial for understanding the timing of these changes. The Anatolian Peninsula, characterized by diverse topographical and climatic factors, witnessed the presence of glaciers during the Late Pleistocene, shaping its alpine landscape significantly. While mountain ranges such as the Taurus and Pontic favoured glacier development due to their elevation and lower temperatures, isolated mountains such as Mount Soğanlı in the interior hinterland also supported significant palaeoglaciers. Despite previous studies on Anatolia's glaciers, numerical dating of glacial deposits on Mount Soğanlı has remained elusive until now, hindering precise palaeoclimatic interpretations. This study employs cosmogenic 36Cl surface exposure dating and physical‐based ice‐flow modelling using an open‐source framework, Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM), to determine the timing of glaciations and to reconstruct past glacier extents on Mount Soğanlı. The results reveal glacier retreat ages of 48.3 ± 13.4 and 18.3 ± 4.4 ka based on two well‐preserved moraines. Additionally, palaeoclimate simulations matched with the field observations indicate considerably colder conditions (6.65–8.15°C colder than today) necessary to sustain glaciers on Mount Soğanlı, when precipitation amounts were the same as today. These findings contribute to a better understanding of Anatolia's palaeoclimatic fluctuations and align with similar studies in neighbouring regions, enhancing our knowledge of past climate dynamics of the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East.

Melting glaciers, emerging pandemics?

The world contains over 198,000 to 200,000 glaciers, covering in total over 726,000 square kilometers of Earth’s surface (Davies; “Glacier Quick Facts”). The repetitive cycle of snowfall forming layers and compressing into ice sheets over the course of centuries has allowed the formation of these unique, massive masses of ice. Apart from being huge reservoirs of water, glaciers are also hosts of many interconnected microbiomes, fostering active and dormant bacteria, fungi, viruses and other extremophiles. During the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), or the peak of the ice age around 23,000-19,000 years ago, the sea surface temperature was at its lowest accompanied by low atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (CO2) concentration (“How Does Present Glacier Extent”; Quamar et al.). This was when glaciers covered over 32% of Earth’s total surface. However, today, glaciers account for just around 10% of land (“Glacier Quick Facts”). The rise of human choices, especially our indulgence in activities like industrialisation, consumerism and wastage have contributed to the emission of greenhouse gasses, which has in turn led to global warming. A consequence of this phenomenon is the melting of glaciers. Melting glaciers not only results in the release of water and rising sea levels, but also the unveiling of previously trapped microbiomes. This raised the hypothesis that melting glaciers, and other sections of the cryosphere can expose previously frozen, potentially pandemic-causing pathogens to the world. This descriptive research paper will serve the purpose of encapsulating existing research regarding whether the disintegration of the cryosphere can cause pandemics.

Change in grounding line location on the Antarctic Peninsula measured using a tidal motion offset correlation method

Abstract. The grounding line position of glaciers and ice shelves is an essential observation for the study of the Earth's ice sheets. However, in some locations, such as the Antarctic Peninsula, where many grounding lines have not been mapped since the 1990s, remote sensing of grounding line position remains challenging. Here we present a tidal motion offset correlation (TMOC) method for measuring the grounding line position of tidewater glaciers and ice shelves, based on the correlation between tide amplitude and synthetic aperture radar offset tracking measurements. We apply this method to the Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet to automatically delineate a new grounding line position for 2019–2020, with near complete coverage along 9300 km of coastline, updating the 20-year-old record. A comparison of the TMOC grounding line to contemporaneous interferometrically measured grounding line position shows the method has a mean seaward offset compared to interferometry of 185 m and a standard deviation of 295 m. Our results show that over the last 24 years there has been grounding line retreat at a number of fast-flowing ice streams on the Antarctic Peninsula, with the most retreat concentrated in the north-eastern sector, where grounding lines have retreated following the collapse of ice shelves. We observe a maximum grounding line retreat since 1996 of 16.3 ± 0.5 km on Hektoria Glacier, with other notable glaciers retreating by 9.3 ± 0.5, 9.1 ± 0.5 and 3.6 ± 0.5 km. Our results document dynamic change on Antarctic Peninsula glaciers and show the importance of using an updated grounding line location to delineate the boundary between floating and grounded ice.

Modelling lateral meltwater flow and superimposed ice formation atop Greenland's near-surface ice slabs

Abstract At high elevations on the Greenland ice sheet meltwater percolates and refreezes in place, and hence does not contribute to mass loss. However, meltwater generation and associated surface runoff is occurring from increasingly higher altitudes, causing changes in firn stratigraphy that have led to the presence of near-surface ice slabs. These ice slabs force meltwater to flow laterally instead of percolating downwards. Here we present a simple, physics-based quasi-2-D model to simulate lateral meltwater runoff and superimposed ice (SI) formation on top of ice slabs. Using an Eulerian Darcy flow scheme, the model calculates how far meltwater can travel within a melt season and when it appears at the snow surface. Results show that lateral flow is a highly efficient runoff mechanism, as lateral outflow exceeds locally generated meltwater in all model gridcells, with total meltwater discharge sometimes reaching more than 30 times the average amount of in situ generated melt. SI formation, an important process in the formation and thickening of the ice slabs, can retain up to 40% of the available meltwater, and generally delays the appearance of visible runoff. Validating the model against field- or remote-sensing data remains challenging, but the results presented here are a first step towards a more comprehensive understanding and description of the hydrological system in the accumulation zone of the southwestern Greenland ice sheet.

Assessing the effects of fjord geometry on Greenland tidewater glacier stability

Abstract Tidewater glaciers frequently advance and retreat in ways uncoupled from climate forcing. This complicates the task of forecasting the evolution of individual glaciers and the overall Greenland ice sheet, much of which is drained by tidewater glaciers. Past observational research has identified a set of processes collectively known as the tidewater glacier cycle (TGC) to describe tidewater glacier evolution in four stages: the advancing stage, the extended stage, the retreating stage and the retreated stage. Once glacier retreat is initiated, the TGC is thought to depend largely on the glacier's calving rate, which is controlled by fjord geometry. However, there has been little modeling or systematic observational work on the topic. Measuring calving rates directly is challenging and thus we developed an averaged von Mises stress state at the glacier terminus as a calving rate proxy that can be estimated from surface velocities, ice thickness, a terminus position and subglacial topography. We then analyzed 44 tidewater glaciers in Greenland and assessed the current state in the TGC for them. Of the 44 glaciers, we find that fjord geometry is causing instability in ten cases, vs stability in seven, with 11 in rapid retreat and 16 have been historically stable.

Validation and Analysis of the ICESat-2 ATL11 Product: A Case Study of Lake Vostok

Elevation changes are crucial input data for mass balance assessment based on satellite altimetry. However, due to the accuracy limitations of altimetry data and mass conversion models, a significant uncertainty remains in estimating the mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet, especially in East Antarctica. The ICESat-2 photon altimetry satellite enhances the precision of ice sheet surface elevation measurements to an accuracy of 2–4 cm. This improvement is particularly beneficial for detecting subtle elevation changes in East Antarctica. The ATL11 product from ICESat-2 offers a time series of ice surface elevations across Antarctica, enabling direct calculation of elevation change rates. To evaluate the capability of the ATL11 product in accurately depicting detailed elevation changes within the local terrain, we selected the Vostok Subglacial Lake as the validation region. Our research involves comparing fitted surface elevation change rates with in-situ data, while also considering surface mass balance, wind, and surface elevation to analyze the factors contributing to small differences in elevation changes within the local lake area. This analysis aims to identify the factors contributing to the minor variations in elevation changes within the local lake area. According to our analysis, the Vostok Lake surface elevation change rate is 2.00 ± 0.77 cm yr−1 from April 2019 to June 2023, with an average period of 356 ± 81 days. The results demonstrate that the ATL11 elevation product sequence has the potential to accurately characterize subtle elevation changes and seasonal variations in the Antarctic ice sheet.

Antarctic ice-shelf meltwater outflows in satellite radar imagery: ground-truthing and basal channel observations

Abstract Ice shelves regulate the flow of the Antarctic ice sheet toward the ocean and its contribution to sea-level rise. Accurately monitoring the basal and surface melting of ice shelves is therefore essential for predicting the ice sheet's response to climatic warming. In this study, we utilize Sentinel-1A synthetic aperture radar satellite imagery combined with shipboard measurements of water temperature and salinity to investigate the presence of surficial meltwater plumes along the Antarctic coastline. Our approach reveals a strong correlation between areas of pronounced low radar backscatter extending from ice shelves and significant decreases in water temperature and salinity, suggesting meltwater-enriched ocean waters. We propose that the low radar backscatter signature of meltwater outflows is caused by stable stratification of the upper water column, driven by density contrasts from buoyant, low-salinity meltwater and surface current shear that reduce Bragg scattering waves. The resulting smooth water surfaces were observed adjacent to the surface expression of deep basal channels, documented in a helicopter survey along part of the Bellingshausen Sea ice edge. We present high-temporal resolution satellite radar as a tool for identifying meltwater release from beneath ice shelves, capable of all-weather, day-and-night imaging.

Low-degree gravity field coefficients based on inverse GNSS method: insights into hydrological and ice mass change studies

The relative displacements of stations from a global network of Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) sites provide information on global mass transport. In this study, we use 19 years of global GNSS station displacements from the 3rd International GNSS Service reprocessing campaign to estimate the coefficients of the spherical harmonics of the Earth’s gravity field up to degree and order 8 using the inverse GNSS method based on elastic loading theory. The results indicate that the C30 coefficient can be derived based on GNSS station displacements as an alternative to solutions provided by Satellite Laser Ranging (SLR) and Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE). GNSS may support GRACE solutions that face the problems of deriving C30, which has fundamental meaning in estimating ice mass changes in polar regions. The recovery of Antarctic ice sheet mass change from January 2007 to December 2020 based on coefficients replaced by GNSS estimates results in a linear trend of − 152 ± 4 Gt/year, in comparison to − 149 ± 2 Gt/year for the replacement based on SLR from GRACE Technical Note #14. The results indicate that the spatial and seasonal patterns of terrestrial water storage changes derived from GNSS are consistent with those estimated using GRACE/GRACE Follow-On and SLR at a few-millimeter level in the Amazon and Brahmaputra River basin regions.

Ice Sheet Mass Changes over Antarctica Based on GRACE Data

Assessing changes of the mass balance in the Antarctic ice sheet in the context of global warming is a key focus in polar study. This study analyzed the spatiotemporal variation in the Antarctic ice sheet’s mass balance, both as a whole and by individual basins, from 2003 to 2016 and from 2018 to 2022 using GRACE RL06 data published by the Center for Space Research (CSR) and ERA-5 meteorological data. It explored the lagged relationships between mass balance and precipitation, net surface solar radiation, and temperature, and applied the random forest method to examine the relative contributions of these factors to the ice sheet’s mass balance within a nonlinear framework. The results showed that the mass loss rates of the Antarctic ice sheet during the study periods were −123.3 ± 6.2 Gt/a and −24.8 ± 52.1 Gt/a. The region with the greatest mass loss was the Amundsen Sea in West Antarctica (−488.8 ± 5.3 Gt/a and −447.9 ± 14.7 Gt/a), while Queen Maud Land experienced the most significant mass accumulation (44.9 ± 1.0 Gt/a and 30.0 ± 3.2 Gt/a). The main factors contributing to surface ablation of the Antarctic ice sheet are rising temperatures and increased surface net solar radiation, each showing a lag effect of 1 month and 2 months, respectively. Precipitation also affects the loss of the ice sheet to some extent. Over time, the contribution of precipitation to the changes in the ice sheet’s mass balance increases.

An extreme precipitation event over Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica - A case study of an atmospheric river event using the Polar WRF Model

Extreme precipitation events (EPEs) are crucial in Antarctica, impacting the Antarctic ice sheet's surface mass balance and stability. Comprehensive case studies are essential for better understanding these events and the underlying processes driving them. Here, we investigate an extreme snowfall event in Dronning Maud Land (DML), East Antarctica on November 8 and 9, 2015. This event contributed approximately 22 % of the annual accumulation in less than two days and exhibited high spatial variability in precipitation distribution. We employed a high-resolution atmospheric model specifically optimized for the polar regions (Polar WRF) and ERA5 reanalysis data to analyze the event in detail. Our findings highlight the importance of a blocking high-pressure ridge of record strength that effectively blocked and diverted a strong extratropical cyclone into DML, ultimately leading to the heavy snowfall event. The sudden deepening of the cyclone was initiated by a ‘jet streak’ in the upper atmosphere that steered the system southeastwards towards the Antarctic coast. Notably, we observed an anomalously high poleward moisture transport in the form of a strong atmospheric river on November 7, 2015. This atmospheric river originated in the South Atlantic Ocean and tracked poleward from the 30°S-40°S latitude band. Vertical cross-sections of the model outputs indicate that most of the precipitation was concentrated in regions with steep orography along the path of the atmospheric river. This interaction between the atmospheric river and the steep terrain led to the uplift of maritime air, resulting in heavy snowfall. This study highlights the significance of extreme upper and lower atmospheric conditions in driving intense moisture transport towards coastal DML. The interaction between the atmospheric river and the steep orography contributed to heavy snowfall, underscoring the importance of considering orographic influences in understanding EPEs in Antarctica.

Miocene ice sheet dynamics and sediment deposition in the central Ross Sea, Antarctica

Drill cores from the Antarctic continental shelf are essential for directly constraining changes in past Antarctic Ice Sheet extent. Here, we provide a sedimentary facies analysis of drill cores from International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) Site U1521 in the Ross Sea, which reveals a unique, detailed snapshot of Antarctic Ice Sheet evolution between ca. 18 Ma and 13 Ma. We identify distinct depositional packages, each of which contains facies successions that are reflective of past baseline shifts in the presence or absence of marine-terminating ice sheets on the outermost Ross Sea continental shelf. The oldest depositional package (>18 Ma) contains massive diamictites stacked through aggradation and deposited in a deep, actively subsiding basin that restricted marine ice sheet expansion on the outer continental shelf. A slowdown in tectonic subsidence after 17.8 Ma led to the deposition of progradational massive diamictites with thin mudstone beds/laminae, as several large marine-based ice sheet advances expanded onto the mid- to outer continental shelf between 17.8 Ma and 17.4 Ma. Between 17.2 Ma and 15.95 Ma, packages of interbedded diamictite and diatom-rich mudstone were deposited during a phase of highly variable Antarctic Ice Sheet extent and volume. This included periods of Antarctic Ice Sheet advance near the outer shelf during the early Miocene Climate Optimum (MCO)—despite this being a well-known period of peak global warmth between ca. 17.0 Ma and 14.6 Ma. Conversely, there were periods of peak warmth within the MCO during which diatom-rich mudstones with little to no ice-rafted debris were deposited, which indicates that the Antarctic Ice Sheet was greatly reduced in extent and had retreated to a smaller terrestrial-terminating ice sheet, most notably between 16.3 Ma and 15.95 Ma. Post-14.2 Ma, diamictites and diatomites contain unambiguous evidence of subglacial shearing in the core and provide the first direct, well-dated evidence of highly erosive marine ice sheets on the outermost continental shelf during the onset of the Middle Miocene Climate Transition (MMCT; 14.2−13.6 Ma). Although global climate forcings and feedbacks influenced Antarctic Ice Sheet advances and retreats during the MCO and MMCT, we propose that this response was nonlinear and heavily influenced by regional feedbacks related to the shoaling of the continental shelf due to reduced subsidence, sediment infilling, and local sea-level changes that directly influenced oceanic influences on melting at the Antarctic Ice Sheet margin. Although intervals of diatom-rich muds and diatomite indicating open-marine interglacial conditions still occurred during (and following) the MMCT, repeated advances of marine-based ice sheets since that time have resulted in widespread erosion and overdeepening in the inner Ross Sea, which has greatly enhanced sensitivity to marine ice sheet instability since 14.2 Ma.

The grain-scale signature of isotopic diffusion in ice

Abstract. Diffusion limits the survival of climate signals on the water stable isotopes in ice sheets. Diffusive smoothing acts not only on annual signals near the surface, but also on long-timescale signals at depth as they shorten to decimetres or centimetres. Short-circuiting of the slow diffusion in crystal grains by fast diffusion along liquid veins can explain the “excess diffusion” found on some ice-core isotopic records. But experimental evidence is lacking as to whether this mechanism operates as theorised; theories of the short-circuiting also under-explore the role of diffusion along grain boundaries. The non-uniform patterns of isotopic deviation δ across crystal grains induced by short-circuiting offer a testable prediction of these theories. Here, we extend the modelling for grain boundaries (and veins) and calculate these patterns for different grain-boundary diffusivities and thicknesses, temperatures, and vein-water flow velocities. Two isotopic patterns are shown to prevail in ice of millimetre grain size: (i) an axisymmetric “pole” pattern with excursions in δ centred on triple junctions, in the case of thin, low-diffusivity grain boundaries, and (ii) a “spoke” pattern with excursions around triple junctions showing the impression of grain boundaries, when these are thick and highly diffusive. The excursions have widths ∼ 10 %–50 % of the grain radius and variations in δ ∼ 10−2 to 10−1 times the bulk isotopic signal for oxygen and deuterium, which set the minimum measurement capability needed to detect the patterns. We examine how the predicted patterns vary with depth through a signal wavelength to suggest an experimental procedure, based on laser ablation mapping, of testing ice-core samples for these signatures of isotopic short-circuiting. Because our model accounts for veins and grain boundaries, its predicted enhancement factor (quantifying the level of excess diffusion) characterises the bulk-ice isotopic diffusivity more comprehensively than past studies.

Substantial reduction in population exposure to sea level changes along the Chinese mainland coast through emission mitigation

Abstract Rising sea level increases the exposure to flooding and related damage in coastal areas with high population density and substantial economic activity. As global temperatures continue to rise due to climate change, sea levels have been consistently increasing and are projected to continue this upward trend. This study assesses the future exposure at provincial and city levels populations coastal mainland China coast to local sea level changes under five greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios from IPCC-AR6, as well as two low-confidence scenarios accounting for the potential impact of uncertain ice sheet processes with low- and high-GHG emissions. We incorporate spatial heterogeneity into regional sea level projections and population projections from 2020 to 2100, extreme sea levels (ESLs) of 10-, 50-, and 100 year return periods (RP), and local coastal protection standards. Our findings indicate that the inundated areas expand continuously within the century with heightened exposure under higher emission scenarios. Although the coastal population is projected to decline, the fraction of the coastal population exposed to flooding increases across all scenarios, with accelerated growth under higher GHG emissions and higher ESLs. Zhejiang and Jiangsu emerge as the provinces most exposed to sea-level rise, whereas Taizhou, Nantong, Wuxi, Panjin, and Huzhou are identified as the top five cities with the highest population exposure to local sea level rise (SLR). Transitioning towards a sustainable scenario (i.e. SSP1-2.6) rather than a fossil fuel-intensive one (i.e. SSP5-8.5) can reduce the local SLR and substantially mitigate these exposures. Compared to the median projections under SSP5-8.5, aligning GHG emissions with SSP1-2.6 could reduce population exposure substantially in all coastal provinces, especially in Jiangsu, where population exposure to 100 year RP coastal floods would be reduced by ∼1.6 M in 2050 and by ∼5.4 M in 2100.

Melt sensitivity of irreversible retreat of Pine Island Glacier

Abstract. In recent decades, glaciers in the Amundsen Sea Embayment in West Antarctica have made the largest contribution to mass loss from the entire Antarctic Ice Sheet. Glacier retreat and acceleration have led to concerns about the stability of the region and the effects of future climate change. Coastal thinning and near-synchronous increases in ice flux across neighbouring glaciers suggest that ocean-driven melting is one of the main drivers of mass imbalance. However, the response of individual glaciers to changes in ocean conditions varies according to their local geometry. One of the largest and fastest-flowing of these glaciers, Pine Island Glacier (PIG), underwent a retreat from a subglacial ridge in the 1940s following a period of unusually warm conditions. Despite subsequent cooler periods, the glacier failed to recover back to the ridge and continued retreating to its present-day position. Here, we use the ice-flow model Úa to investigate the sensitivity of this retreat to changes in basal melting. We show that a short period of increased basal melt was sufficient to force the glacier from its stable position on the ridge and undergo an irreversible retreat to the next topographic high. Once high melting begins upstream of the ridge, only near-zero melt rates can stop the retreat, indicating a possible hysteresis in the system. Our results suggest that unstable and irreversible responses to warm anomalies are possible and can lead to substantial changes in ice flux over relatively short periods of only a few decades.

Moisture variability in northeast Tibet following the middle Miocene Climate transition

After the middle Miocene Climate transition, global cooling caused substantial hydrological changes in East Asia. Today, many lines of evidence indicate that inland East Asia experienced persistent aridification after the middle Miocene Climate transition. However, chemical weathering records from the South China Sea as well as late-Miocene paleolake expansions in northeastern Tibet contrast with the idea of long-term aridification after the middle Miocene Climate transition. Here, we present manganese-to-iron ratios and clay mineral contents of sediments formed approximately 14 to 10 million years ago from the Guide Basin, northeastern Tibetan Plateau, combined with previously published records (lithology, magnetic susceptibility, redness, and strontium content). Our results show that a paleolake in the Guide Basin expanded between approximately 11.4 and 10.5 million years ago, opposite to the long-term drying trend after the middle Miocene Climate transition. On the 100-kilo-year eccentricity scale, our results demonstrate alternating moisture source variability in northeast Tibet, with precipitation predominantly delivered via the westerlies and the East Asian summer monsoon. This variability could potentially be related to the movement of the westerly jet over the Tibetan Plateau. After comparison to climate model simulations, we attribute this movement to astronomical forcing and the waxing and waning of the Antarctic ice sheet.

The Sensitivity of the Spatial Pattern of Sea Level Changes to the Depth of Antarctic Meltwater Fluxes

AbstractRegional patterns of sea level rise are affected by a range of factors including glacial melting, which has occurred in recent decades and is projected to increase in the future, perhaps dramatically. Previous modeling studies have typically included fluxes from melting glacial ice only as a surface forcing of the ocean or as an offline addition to the sea surface height fields produced by climate models. However, observational estimates suggest that the majority of the meltwater from the Antarctic Ice Sheet actually enters the ocean at depth through ice shelf basal melt. Here we use simulations with an ocean general circulation model in an idealized configuration. The results show that the simulated global sea level change pattern is sensitive to the depth at which Antarctic meltwater enters the ocean. Further analysis suggests that the response is dictated primarily by the steric response to the depth of the meltwater flux.

Contrasting the Penultimate Glacial Maximum and the Last Glacial Maximum (140 and 21 ka) using coupled climate–ice sheet modelling

Abstract. The configuration of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets during the Penultimate Glacial Maximum differed to the Last Glacial Maximum. However, the reasons for this are not yet fully understood. These differences likely contributed to the varied deglaciation pathways experienced following the glacial maxima and may have had consequences for the interglacial sea level rise. To understand the differences between the North American Ice Sheet at the Last and Penultimate glacial maxima (21 and 140 ka), we perform two perturbed-physics ensembles of 62 simulations using a coupled atmosphere–ice sheet model, FAMOUS-ice, with prescribed surface ocean conditions, in which the North American and Greenland ice sheets are dynamically simulated with the Glimmer ice sheet model. We apply an implausibility metric to find ensemble members that match reconstructed ice extent and volumes at the Last and Penultimate glacial maxima. We use a resulting set of “plausible” parameters to perform sensitivity experiments to decompose the role of climate forcings (orbit, greenhouse gases) and initial conditions on the final ice sheet configurations. This confirms that the initial ice sheet conditions used in the model are extremely important in determining the difference in final ice volumes between both periods due to the large effect of the ice–albedo feedback. In contrast to evidence of a smaller Penultimate North American Ice Sheet, our results show that the climate boundary conditions at these glacial maxima, if considered in isolation, imply a larger Penultimate Glacial Maximum North American Ice Sheet than at the Last Glacial Maximum by around 6 m sea level equivalent. This supports the notion that the growth of the ice sheet prior to the glacial maxima is key in explaining the differences in North American ice volume.