Contemporary Time Periods Research Articles

Dramatic improvements in outcome following pancreatoduodenectomy for pancreatic and periampullary cancers

BackgroundPancreatoduodenectomy is the only cure for cancers of the pancreas and the periampullary region but has considerable operative complications and uncertain prognosis. Our goal was to analyse temporal improvements and provide contemporary population-based benchmarks for outcomes following pancreatoduodenectomy.MethodsWe empanelled a cohort comprising all patients in Sweden with pancreatic or periampullary cancer treated with pancreatoduodenectomy from 1964 to 2016 and achieved complete follow-up through 2016. We analysed postoperative deaths and disease-specific net survival.ResultsWe analysed 5923 patients with cancer of the pancreas (3876), duodenum (444), bile duct (504), or duodenal papilla (963) who underwent classic (3332) or modified (1652) Whipple’s procedure or total pancreatectomy (803). Postoperative deaths declined from 17.2% in the 1960s to 1.6% in the contemporary time period (2010–2016). For all four cancer types, median, 1-year and 5-year survival improved substantially over time. Among patients operated between 2010 and 2016, 5-year survival was 29.0% (95% confidence interval (CI): 25.5, 33.0) for pancreatic cancer, 71.2% (95% CI: 62.9, 80.5) for duodenal cancer, 30.8% (95% CI: 23.0, 41.3) for bile duct cancer, and 62.7% (95% CI: 55.5, 70.8) for duodenal papilla cancer.ConclusionThere is a continuous and substantial improvement in the benefit-harm ratio after pancreatoduodenectomy for cancer.

Object-oriented analysis as a foundation for building climate storylines of compounding short-term drought and crop heat stress

IntroductionCrops are vulnerable to precipitation and heat extremes during late spring through summer.MethodsWe analyzed for a north-central U.S. region short-term drought and agricultural heat stress during April-May-June-July. We used the 4-km Parameter Elevation Regression on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) for observations, aggregated to a 25-km grid, and two 25-km Regional Climate Model version 4 (RegCM4) simulns used either GFDL- or MPI-GCM boundary conditions. We chose 1981-2000 as our contemporary time period, and 2041-2060 as our scenario time period, which used the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 emissions scenario. We used object-oriented analysis to identify events of interest in observations and simulations by identifying objects in a space-time domain that meet specified criteria, such as exceeding a heat-stress temperature threshold. The event diagnosis allowed analysis of compound events, occurring when temperature and drought objects overlap.ResultsIdentified objects yielded events that can undermine agricultural productivity and which are thus relevant to decision makers, making them building blocks for possible climate storylines. The observations and simulations showed similar spatial distributions of event frequencies across the analysis region. However, the simulations attained this distribution by having fewer events that tend to cover larger areas compared to observed events, suggesting that the effective resolution of the simulations was coarser than their 25-km grids. Short-term drought frequency increased and heat-stress frequency decreased in transitioning to the scenario climate. When compounding occurred heat-stress events generally preceded the short-term drought events. The overlapping, compound events tended to be more extreme compared to non-overlapping events of either type.DiscussionThe information yielded projected changes in these agriculturally motivated events. One prominent conditional behavior emerging from the work was that a heat-stress event should be a warning to watch for potential drought, as both could compound each other to more intense levels.

Cancer Treatment Disparities in People With HIV in the United States, 2001-2019.

People with HIV (PWH) have worse cancer outcomes, partially because of inequities in cancer treatment. We evaluated cancer treatment disparities among PWH, including an assessment of changes in disparities over time. We used data from the HIV/AIDS Cancer Match Study, a population-based HIV and cancer registry linkage to examine diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL), Hodgkin lymphoma (HL), and cancers of the cervix, lung, anus, prostate, colon, and female breast. Outcomes included receipt of (1) any cancer treatment and (2) standard therapy among patients with local-stage cancer. We assessed associations between HIV and each outcome by estimating adjusted prevalence odds ratios (aORs) with 95% CI and trends over time. We identified predictors of nonreceipt of cancer treatment in PWH. From 2001 to 2019, compared with people with cancer without HIV (n = 2,880,955), PWH (n = 16,334) were more likely to not receive cancer treatment for cervical cancer (aOR, 2.03 [95% CI, 1.52 to 2.70]), DLBCL (aOR, 1.53 [95% CI, 1.38 to 1.70]), HL (aOR, 1.39 [95% CI, 1.19 to 1.63]), lung cancer (aOR, 1.79 [95% CI, 1.65 to 1.93]), prostate cancer (aOR, 1.32 [95% CI, 1.21 to 1.44]), colon cancer (aOR, 1.73 [95% CI, 1.43 to 2.08]), and breast cancer (aOR, 1.38 [95% CI, 1.07 to 1.77]). Similar associations were observed in PWH with local-stage cancers although no difference was observed for anal cancers. The association between HIV and nonreceipt of cancer treatment significantly decreased over time for breast, colon, and prostate cancers (all P trend <.0001), but PWH remained less likely to receive treatment in 2014-2019 for DLBCL, cervix, and lung cancers. Among PWH, Black individuals, people who inject drugs, and those 65 years and older were less likely to receive cancer treatment. Disparities in receipt of cancer treatment persist for PWH in the United States in contemporary time periods. Solutions to address inequitable receipt of cancer treatment among PWH are urgently needed.

Understanding the Presence of Human Trafficking Through the Lens of Feminism Philosophy

Human trafficking has raised significant political and public concerns in the contemporary time period. Individuals are often illegally trafficked throughout India for various purposes, such as forced labor or commercial sexual exploitation. India is an infamous destination for trafficked women from Bangladesh, primarily for commercial sexual exploitation. In West Bengal, the challenge of human trafficking poses a serious concern to the residents. Often in the news and official reports, it is observed that two districts of West Bengal, namely North Bengal and South 24 Parganas, are considered the main haven for perpetrators to traffic humans from one place to the other. The porous border that West Bengal shares with Bangladesh has aggravated the situation since the perpetrators can escape the scope of security while engaging in human trafficking. In order to understand the presence of human trafficking in contemporary times, an action that has been termed illegal for over a century now, this research will analyze and discuss why trafficking of humans still continues to persist through the lens of feminist philosophy. This research article seeks to analyze the theoretical framework advocated by the neo-abolitionists who condemn all forms of prostitution as they believe it is oppression against women and tries to understand the presence of human trafficking as a consequence of gender oppression.

Bee species richness through time in an urbanizing landscape of the southeastern United States.

Compared to non-urban environments, cities host ecological communities with altered taxonomic diversity and functional trait composition. However, we know little about how these urban changes take shape over time. Using historical bee (Apoidea: Anthophila) museum specimens supplemented with online repositories and researcher collections, we investigated whether bee species richness tracked urban and human population growth over the past 118 years. We also determined which species were no longer collected, whether those species shared certain traits, and if collector behavior changed over time. We focused on Wake County, North Carolina, United States where human population size has increased over 16 times over the last century along with the urban area within its largest city, Raleigh, which has increased over four times. We estimated bee species richness with occupancy models, and rarefaction and extrapolation curves to account for imperfect detection and sample coverage. To determine if bee traits correlated with when species were collected, we compiled information on native status, nesting habits, diet breadth, and sociality. We used non-metric multidimensional scaling to determine if individual collectors contributed different bee assemblages over time. In total, there were 328 species collected in Wake County. We found that although bee species richness varied, there was no clear trend in bee species richness over time. However, recent collections (since 2003) were missing 195 species, and there was a shift in trait composition, particularly lost species were below-ground nesters. The top collectors in the dataset differed in how often they collected bee species, but this was not consistent between historic and contemporary time periods; some contemporary collectors grouped closer together than others, potentially due to focusing on urban habitats. Use of historical collections and complimentary analyses can fill knowledge gaps to help understand temporal patterns of species richness in taxonomic groups that may not have planned long-term data.

Mesohabitat and macroecological correlates for blue sucker (Cycleptus elongatus) occurrence in regulated rivers

AbstractBlue sucker (Cycleptus elongatus) populations occur in the Mississippi River and Gulf of Mexico drainages of North America and are negatively affected by habitat fragmentation and flow regime alteration caused by dams. During fish assemblage surveys in August of 2022, we collected five juvenile blue suckers (312–428 mm total length) in the Angelina River upstream of Sam Rayburn Reservoir in East Texas (46,335 ha surface area) where the occurrence of the species was previously unconfirmed. Given this unexpected finding, we (1) analyzed mesohabitat associations to compare habitats we sampled with reports in the literature and (2) reviewed blue sucker occurrences in state, national, and global databases across historical (1950–1980) and contemporary (1981–2022) time periods to assess occurrence across gradients of habitat fragmentation and streamflow regulation. The blue sucker population in the Angelina River upstream of Sam Rayburn Reservoir was previously unconfirmed but is within the native range. Mesohabitats occupied by blue suckers were consistent with literature reports, including fast velocity, shallow depth, and coarse substrates. The low degree of regulation (19% of natural runoff stored by upstream reservoirs) and a high degree of habitat connectivity (287 rkm of unfragmented mainstem habitat) for the Angelina River upstream of Sam Rayburn Reservoir matched range‐wide patterns of persistence within relatively intact (unfragmented and unregulated) or remnant (fragmented but unregulated) riverscapes. Our review reveals that blue sucker populations might persist (1) in remnant river fragments where local habitat conditions are appropriate and (2) where effects of habitat fragmentation and flow regulation are not coupled.

Impact of climate change on the geographical distribution and niche dynamics of Gastrodia elata.

Gastrodia elata is widely used in China as a valuable herbal medicine. Owing to its high medicinal and nutrient value, wild resources of G. elata have been overexploited and its native areas have been severely damaged. Understanding the impacts of climate change on the distribution of this endangered species is important for the conservation and sustainable use of G. elata. We used the optimized maximum entropy model to simulate the potential distribution of G. elata under contemporary and future time periods (1970-2000, 2050s, 2070s, and 2090s) and different climate change scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5). Under these conditions, we investigated the key environmental factors influencing the distribution of G. elata as well as the spatial and temporal characteristics of its niche dynamics. With high Maxent model accuracy (AUCmean = 0.947 ±0.012, and the Kappa value is 0.817), our analysis revealed that annual precipitation, altitude, and mean temperature of driest quarter are the most important environmental factors influencing the distribution of G. elata. Under current bioclimatic conditions, the potentially suitable area for G. elata in China is 71.98 × 104 km2, while the highly suitable region for G. elata growth is 7.28 × 104 km2. Our models for three future periods under four climate change scenarios indicate that G. elata can maintain stable distributions in southern Shaanxi, southwestern Hubei, and around the Sichuan basin, as these areas are highly suitable for its growth. However, the center of the highly suitable areas of G. elata shift depending on different climatic scenarios. The values of niche overlap for G. elata show a decreasing trend over the forecasted periods, of which the niche overlap under the SSP3-7.0 scenario shows the greatest decrease. Under the condition of global climate change in the future, our study provides basic reference data for the conservation and sustainable utilization of the valuable and endangered medicinal plant G. elata. It is important to carefully choose the protection area of G. elata wild resources according the suitable area conditions modeled. Moreover, these findings will be valuable for providing insights into the breeding and artificial cultivation of this plant, including the selection of suitable areas for planting.

Factors Associated with Long-Term Prostate Cancer Survival after Palliative Radiotherapy to a Bone Metastasis and Contemporary Palliative Systemic Therapy: A Retrospective, Population-Based Study

Background: Radiation therapy (RT) is an established palliative treatment for bone metastases; however, little is known about post-radiation survival and factors which impact it. The aim of this study was to assess a population-based sample of metastatic prostate cancer patients receiving palliative radiation therapy to bone metastases and contemporary palliative systemic therapy and identify factors that impact long-term survival. Materials/methods: This retrospective, population-based, cohort study assessed all prostate cancer patients receiving palliative RT for bone metastases at a Canadian provincial Cancer program during a contemporary time period. Baseline patient, disease, and treatment characteristics were extracted from the provincial medical physics databases and the electronic medical record. Post-RT Survival intervals were defined as the time interval from the first fraction of palliative RT to death from any cause or date of the last known follow-up. The median survival of the cohort was used to dichotomize the cohort into short- and long-term survivors following RT. Univariable and multivariable hazard regression analyses were performed to identify variables associated with post-RT survival. Results: From 1 January 2018 until 31 December 2019, 545 palliative RT courses for bone metastases were delivered to n = 274 metastatic prostate cancer patients with a median age of 76 yrs (Interquartile range (IQR) 39–83) and a median follow-up of 10.6 months (range 0.2 to 47.9). The median survival of the cohort was 10.6 months (IQR 3.5–25 months). The ECOG performance status of the whole cohort was ≤2 in n = 200 (73%) and 3–4 in n = 67 (24.5%). The most commonly treated sites of bone metastasis were the pelvis and lower extremities n = 130 (47.4%), skull and spine n = 114 (41.6%), and chest and upper extremities n = 30 (10.9%). Most patients had CHAARTED high volume disease n = 239 (87.2%). On multivariable hazard regression analysis, an ECOG performance status of 3–4 (p = 0.02), CHAARTED high volume disease burden (p = 0.023), and non-receipt of systemic therapy (p = 0.006) were significantly associated with worse post-RT survival. Conclusion: Amongst metastatic prostate cancer patients treated with palliative radiotherapy to bone metastases and modern palliative systemic therapies, ECOG performance status, CHAARTED metastatic disease burden, and type of first-line palliative systemic therapy were significantly associated with post-RT survival durations.

Mobilizing Paleobiology to Support Conservation in the Bahamas

The Bahamas sit at the intersection of multiple global change issues emblematic of contemporary Anthropocene conservation challenges. However, the region also has a long and dynamic biocultural history characterized by multiple human migration events associated with species extirpations, extinctions, invasions, and biogeographic rearrangements. This dynamic history informs present day species and ecosystem diversity, as well as societal perceptions of biodiversity conservation. Here, we introduce an interdisciplinary working group focused on the mobilization of paleobiology data and models in support of contemporary conservation agendas and outreach in The Bahamas. Our aims are aligned with global biodiversity goals but are scaled to regional needs. They include: (1) Identify the temporal and spatial scale of human drivers of loss beginning with initial human settlement (ca. AD 700) and through more contemporary time periods; (2) Using these baselines of taxa through time, consider both species-specific conservation and broader ecosystem restoration possibilities; (3) Employ paleobiological data in new modeling and computational approaches to reconstruct ecosystem functions through time and across space to explore possible avenues for “rewilding”; and (4) Ensure equitable benefits of research and conservation implementation. Within the context of these aims, we also discuss both the challenges and great promise of forming a “conservation paleobiology working group” across people with diverse backgrounds and engagement with conservation.

Temporal trends in burn size estimation and the impact of the NSW Trauma App on estimation accuracy

BackgroundSeveral studies demonstrated that burn size calculations by referring clinicians are poor. The purpose of this study was to determine if inaccuracies in burn size estimation have improved with time within the same population, and whether widespread roll-out of a smartphone-based TBSA calculator (in the form of the NSW Trauma App) had an impact on accuracy. MethodsA review of all burn-injured adult patients transferred to Burn Units from August 2015, following the roll out of the NSW Trauma App, to January 2021 was performed. The TBSA determined by the referring centre was compared with the TBSA calculated by the Burn Unit. This was compared to historical data from the same population between January 2009 and August 2013. ResultsThere were 767 adult burn-injured patients transferred to a Burn Unit between 2015 and 2021. The median overall TBSA was 7%. There were 290 patients (37.9%) who had equivalent TBSA calculations by the referring hospital and the Burn Unit. This was a significant improvement compared to the preceding time period (P < 0.005). Overestimation by the referring hospital occurred in 364 cases (47.5%), which was significantly reduced compared to 2009 – 2013 (P < 0.001). Unlike the earlier time period where changes in estimation accuracy were seen in relation to increasing time after the burn injury, burn size estimation accuracy remained relatively consistent in the contemporary time period with no significant change observed (P = 0.86). ConclusionsThis cumulative, longitudinal study of nearly 1500 adult burn-injured patients over 13 years demonstrates improvements in burn size estimation by referring clinicians over time. It is the largest cohort of patients analysed with respect to burn size estimation and is the first to demonstrate improvements in accuracy of TBSA in association with a smartphone-based app. Adopting this simple strategy into burn retrieval systems will augment early assessment of these injuries and improve outcomes.

Declines in lake whitefish larval densities after dreissenid mussel establishment in Lake Huron

Lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis) is an ecologically and commercially significant species across the Laurentian Great Lakes. Over the past 20 years, lake whitefish population abundance has substantially declined across lakes Huron and Michigan, being driven by reduced recruitment of juvenile fish into the population. However, the life stage at which the recruitment bottleneck is occurring and what factors are contributing to the declines remain unknown. One hypothesis is that dreissenid mussels reduced zooplankton availability to larval lake whitefish, leading to poor growth and survival of this critical life stage. Here, we present results of a larval fish survey conducted at the Fishing Islands spawning region in Lake Huron and examine whether declines in juvenile recruitment are linked to reduced larval fish density. Larval fish were collected annually during two time periods: (1) a historical time period before dreissenid mussel establishment (1976–1986); and (2) a contemporary time period after dreissenid mussels became established (2017–2019, 2021). We found significant declines in larval densities and growth between historical and contemporary time periods. Following dreissenid establishment, larval densities and growth were on average only 23% and 55% of historical values, respectively. Moreover, year class strength at the juvenile stage (age 4) was positively related to larval density. Several explanatory variables contributed to annual variation in larval densities, with dreissenid mussels and water levels having the most consistent effect. Our results suggest that juvenile recruitment is being limited at the larval stage, owing to overall lower larval production and potentially exacerbated by slower growth.

Comparing little brown and big brown bat isotopic niches over the past century in an agriculturally dominated landscape

Abstract Agricultural intensification has caused population declines and reduced species diversity in both arthropods and their predators. Despite conservation and habitat management implications, the effects of land-use change on the trophic relationships between nocturnal arthropod predators and their prey have seldom been described. To assess how arthropodivorous bats may have shifted their diets in response to land-use changes, we compared bulk δ 13C and δ 15N values from little brown and big brown bat museum specimens and carcasses collected in the Upper Midwestern region of the United States from 1898 to 2019. As an exploratory analysis, we also investigated relationships between isotopic values and climate or landcover variables to quantify potential correlations with changes in arthropodivorous bat foraging patterns over time. Overall, we found that isotopic niche overlap of little brown and big brown bats increased from 24% to 45% between historical and contemporary time periods. Our results indicate that the isotopic niches of little brown bats have been largely conserved, whereas the isotopic niches of big brown bats are more flexible and became more similar to little brown bats over time. Further analyses showed that stable isotope values from arthropodivorous bat tissues were also correlated with certain landcover variables such as the prevalence of wetland, forest, and grassland habitats, but not with the prevalence of agricultural land on a local scale. These findings suggest that the foraging patterns of some aerial arthropodivores have shifted in response to the loss of habitat diversity and corresponding changes in prey resources.

A comparison of dietary isotopes in pulp stones and incremental dentine from Early Neolithic individuals of the Whitwell Long Cairn, England

ObjectivesThis study investigates if palaeodietary information can be obtained from pulp stones through stable isotope analysis, presents a method for their extraction from tooth samples, and assesses their utility as a source of paleodietary information when coupled with the incremental dentine method.Materials and MethodsSix tooth samples (2 per individual), four of which contained pulp stones, were selected from three Early Neolithic (3720–3650 cal BC) individuals from the Whitwell Long Cairn in Derbyshire, England. After demineralization, each tooth was divided into 1 mm increments. Stable isotope analysis of collagen was conducted on each dentine increment and a portion of each pulp stone.ResultsAll samples met the quality control criteria for well‐preserved collagen. Excluding the pulp stones, the mean δ13C value of the teeth sampled was −21.5 ± 0.2‰ and the mean δ15N value was 9.9 ± 0.5‰, suggesting these individuals had a terrestrial‐based diet. The pulp stones produced similar δ13C values between −21.6 and −21.4‰ and δ15N values between 9.1 and 9.8‰.DiscussionThe results demonstrate that paleodietary information can be obtained from pulp stones through stable isotope analysis. There are, however, significant challenges in interpreting this data, particularly as to inferring the timing and duration of their formation. The pulp stone results were compared with the incremental dentine profiles for each person to further investigate when they might have formed. For two individuals, the pulp stones appear to reflect diet from a time period after childhood and adolescence. For the third individual, it could not be determined if the pulp stones reflect a contemporary or later time period than the incremental dentine series. All teeth with pulp stones have moderate to severe wear on the occlusal surface, which could have been a contributing factor to their development.

PD13-08 COMPARISON OF THE DIAGNOSIS AND TREATMENT OF MEN WITH PROSTATE CANCER BETWEEN THE US AND ENGLAND: AN INTERNATIONAL POPULATION-BASED STUDY

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVE:No direct comparison has been made between England and the US with respect to the diagnosis and treatment of men with prostate cancer over one contemporary time period. W...

Racial disparities in the survival of patients with indolent non-Hodgkin lymphomas in the United States.

There is a paucity of data regarding racial disparities in the survival of patients with indolent non-Hodgkin lymphomas (iNHL) in the contemporary time-period. Hence, we sought to determine whether racial disparities exist in the survival of patients with iNHLs in the US. We included 68 059 adult patients with follicular lymphoma (FL, n= 41 943), marginal zone lymphoma (MZL, n= 22 485), and lymphoplasmacytic lymphoma/Waldenström macroglobulinemia (LPL/WM, n= 3631) who were diagnosed in the US between 2000 and 2017. Race was categorized as White, Black, Asian/Pacific Islander, or American Indian/Alaska Native (API/AI). The primary outcome was relative survival (RS), which was estimated using flexible parametric survival models. The RS estimates varied according to race and disease histology but were consistently lower for racial minorities, including those diagnosed during the most recent 5-year time-period of 2012-2017. On multivariable analysis for RS, Black patients with FL had a 32% higher excess mortality rate compared to White patients [adjusted excess hazard ratio (aEHR), 1.32; 95% CI, 1.15-1.51; p< .001], corresponding to a difference of 55 (95% CI, 24-86) excess deaths per 10000 person-years. For MZL, Black patients had a 40% higher excess mortality rate compared to White patients (aEHR 1.40; 95% CI, 1.18-1.66; p< .001), corresponding to a difference of 62 (95% CI, 26-98) excess deaths per 10000 person-years. No significant racial differences were detected for patients with WM. The greatest disparity was seen for younger Black patients with FL. Our findings highlight the need for interventions to improve the outcomes of Black patients with iNHLs, particularly younger Black patients with FL.

Unusually large upward shifts in cold-adapted, montane mammals as temperature warms.

The largest and tallest mountain range in the contiguous United States, the Southern Rocky Mountains, has warmed considerably in the past several decades due to anthropogenic climate change. Herein we examine how 47 mammal elevational ranges (27 rodent and 4 shrew species) have changed from their historical distributions (1886-1979) to their contemporary distributions (post 2005) along 2,400-m elevational gradients in the Front Range and San Juan Mountains of Colorado. Historical elevational ranges were based on more than 4,580 georeferenced museum specimen and publication records. Contemporary elevational ranges were based on 7,444 records from systematic sampling efforts and museum specimen records. We constructed Bayesian models to estimate the probability a species was present, but undetected, due to undersampling at each 50-m elevational bin for each time period and mountain range. These models leveraged individual-level detection probabilities, the number and patchiness of detections across 50-m bands of elevation, and a decaying likelihood of presence from last known detections. We compared 95% likelihood elevational ranges between historical and contemporary time periods to detect directional change. Responses were variable as 26 mammal ranges changed upward, 6 did not change, 11 changed downward, and 4 were extirpated locally. The average range shift was 131m upward, while exclusively montane species shifted upward more often (75%) and displayed larger average range shifts (346m). The best predictors of upper limit and total directional change were species with higher maximum latitude in their geographic range, montane affiliation, and the study mountain was at the southern edge of their geographic range. Thus, mammals in the Southern Rocky Mountains serve as harbingers of more changes to come, particularly for montane, cold-adapted species in the southern portion of their ranges.

Distinguishing between dispersal and vicariance: A novel approach using anti‐tropical taxa across the fish Tree of Life

Abstract AimAnti‐tropical taxa are species split by the tropics into disjunct northern and southern populations. These distributions occur throughout the Tree of Life, but the mechanisms proposed to drive this pattern are debated and generally fit into two categories: dispersal and vicariance. Here, we quantitatively test the prevalence of dispersal and vicariance as plausible drivers of anti‐tropical marine distributions using intraspecific anti‐tropical marine fishes as a model system.LocationPrimarily Indo‐Pacific.TaxonMarine fishes.MethodsTo test between dispersal and vicariance in latitudinally disjunct marine fishes, we used an ecological niche modelling framework to predict the spatio‐temporal suitability of tropical habitats during contemporary and glacial time periods. Three different model configurations were used per species to test: (a) presence of contemporary tropical suitable habitat for northern populations, (b) the same for southern populations and (c) presence of tropical suitable habitat during the last glacial maximum for the entire species. These models were examined in an evolutionary context to determine if there was any phylogenetic signal in biogeographic predictions. Additionally, we tested if life history traits could account for biogeographic predictions.ResultsOur analyses resulted in 87 strongly supported models for 29 anti‐tropical fishes across the fish Tree of Life (northern population model, southern population model, and full species model for each taxon). Model projections consistently matched predictions of vicariance in 13 fishes and 10 fishes matched predictions of dispersal regardless of thresholding approach. We failed to find any phylogenetic signal for anti‐tropicality in general, or for dispersal and vicariant species specifically. Furthermore, dispersal and vicariant tendencies were not found to be correlated with life history traits.Main conclusionsThese data quantitatively support both dispersal and vicariance as active mechanisms driving disjunct distributions in marine systems and suggest that they occur stochastically across the fish Tree of Life. This novel approach for examining dispersal and vicariance hypotheses supports the species‐specific nature of biogeographic mechanisms structuring distributions, and that a “one‐size‐fits‐all” prediction for current and future species’ responses to environmental change is unlikely to be informative.

Impact of Primary Site and Era of Diagnosis on Mortality in Patients with Extranodal Marginal Zone Lymphoma in the United States: A Population-Based Study

Introduction: Extranodal marginal zone lymphoma of mucosa-associated lymphoid tissue (EMZL) is the most common subtype of MZL. EMZL can affect multiple organs throughout the body, and the management depends on the primary site of involvement and extent of disease. The most common primary site is the stomach, but other sites can be involved including the breasts, eyes, lungs, salivary glands, and skin. The last population-based survival analysis of EZML included follow-up through 2009 (Olszewski and Castillo, 2013). Given the paucity of population-based analyses of EMZL in the contemporary time-period, we sought to provide an updated analysis of disease-specific mortality and site-associated mortality using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER)-18 database. Method: We included adult patients with EMZL diagnosed between 2000-2017 who were 18-84 years old at the time of diagnosis. We excluded patients with a history of malignancy prior to EMZL, those with missing survival times and those with central nervous system involvement. Patients were divided into two cohorts based on period of diagnosis (era-1: 2000-2008, and era-2: 2009-2017). Five-year relative survival (RS) was estimated using the Pohar-Perme method. The risk of EMZL-specific death was estimated by calculating the cumulative incidence function (CIF). The difference between CIF distributions was tested with the Pepe-Mori test. The competing risks of EMZL-specific death and death from other causes were modeled using Fine and Gray regression. All tests of differences were performed at a two-sided alpha of 0.05. Results: We included a total of 11,597 patients with EMZL. Table 1 shows the baseline characteristics. Among the entire cohort, the median age at diagnosis was 63 years (IQR = 53-72). There was a slight female predominance (55%), and most patients were Non-Hispanic White (65%). Five-year RS was 95% (95% CI = 94-96%) during era-1 and 96% (95-97%) during era-2. There was a significant reduction in the cumulative incidence of EMZL-specific death between era-1 and era-2 (p &amp;lt; 0.001, Figure 1A) but not death from other causes (p = 0.35, Figure 1B). The cumulative incidence of EMZL-specific death varied according to EMZL subtype (Figure 2). In our multivariable competing risks model after adjusting for confounders (Table 2), EZMLs arising from the genitourinary (GU) tract had the worst prognosis [subhazard ratio (SHR) = 2.06, 95% CI=1.30-3.27, p=0.002], whereas EZMLs arising from the skin and connective tissue had the best prognosis [SHR = 0.66, 95% CI = 0.48 - 0.91, p = 0.01]. Conclusion: In this updated population-based analysis of EZML that includes patients treated in the contemporaneous time-period, we found that patients diagnosed with EZML in the most recent era had a significantly better prognosis. Additionally, we noted that the outcomes varied depending on primary site of involvement. Patients with EZMLs involving the GU tract had the worst prognosis, whereas patients with primary sites in the skin and connective tissue had the best prognosis. It is important to study the biology of EMZL involving the GU tract to design better therapeutic options to improve the outcomes. Disclosures Epperla: Pharmacyclics: Honoraria; Verastem Oncology: Speakers Bureau.

Historical reconstruction of the Puget Sound (USA) groundfish community

We examined historical and contemporary trends for a suite of groundfish species in Puget Sound, Washington, USA, to ask how the groundfish community has responded following shifts in fishing regulations, climate, food web, and a growing human population in the surrounding watershed. We used contemporary data (1990-2017) from a standardized annual bottom trawl survey with historical logbook information (1948-1977) from a research vessel. We standardized data to account for spatial and temporal effects on catch rate by first fitting a Bayesian model to the contemporary data, and then using the posterior distributions of the covariates as prior distributions when fitting models to the historical data. We found that most of the 15 species chosen for analysis had highly variable population dynamics within both time periods, and that patterns of variability were similar in the contemporary and historical time period. Surprisingly, there was little evidence of community-wide recovery following regulations that first limited and then banned commercial bottom trawling in the late 1980s to mid-1990s. Spotted ratfish and English sole dominated catches in both time periods, and species that were common in the historical time period were also common in the contemporary time period. The absence of coherent community changes in response to fisheries regulations and other major social and ecological changes may signal the complex dynamics of an urban estuary that is subject to multiple external drivers, and speaks to the need to consider long-term dynamic behavior of populations and communities when establishing ecological indicators.

Abstract WMP52: Age, Sex and Regional Differences in Recent Stroke Incidence Trends Among Young Adults

Background: In the US, one third of strokes occur among younger adults (&lt; 65 years). While stroke incidence among elderly has declined, trends in younger adults by age, sex and region are unknown. We report recent trends in stroke incidence among commercially-insured young adults aged 20 - 64. Methods: Stroke incidence was estimated using 2011 - 2017 IBM MarketScan® Commercial Database stratified by age (20 - 34, 35 - 44, 45 - 54, 55 - 64), sex, and US Census region and was extrapolated to the US population using census data. Stroke cases were identified based on a primary diagnosis of either ischemic stroke (IS) or intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) or subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) using validated ICD-9 / 10 codes. We report incidence rates (IR) per 100,000 person-years, 95% confidence intervals and proportional change in IR between 2011 and 2017. Results: We identified 115,276 stroke admissions resulting in 172 million person-years. The overall stroke IR increased by 7% from 60.0 to 64.2 per 100,000 person-years between 2011 and 2017. The increase was greater among males as compared to females (9.8% vs 3.3%) and across both sexes the largest increase was observed for age category of 35 - 44 years (Table 1). Age-specific IR increased in all age categories except 20 - 34. Across US regions, the South showed the highest IR increase (10.0%) (Figure 1). IR for IS and ICH increased while a decrease in SAH IR was observed. The IR for IS was higher for males vs females (12.7% vs 5.4%), whereas it was higher for females vs males for ICH (14.5% vs 3.6%). Conclusions: Our analyses indicate an overall increase in stroke incidence for commercially-insured younger adults during a contemporary time period. Males between the ages of 35 - 44 have experienced the greatest increase in stroke incidence. Furthermore, the Southern US continues to experience highest increases in stroke incidence and there are gender differences in IR for stroke subtypes. Targeted strategies for stroke prevention may be warranted.