Contemporary Fire Research Articles

Fire in Semi-Arid Shrublands and Woodlands: Spatial and Temporal Patterns in an Australian Landscape

Semi-arid landscapes are of interest to fire ecologists because they are generally located in the climatic transition zone between arid lands (where fires tend to be rare due to lack of fuel, but are enhanced following large rainfall episodes) and more mesic regions (where fire activity tends to be enhanced following severe rainfall deficits). Here we report on the characteristics of the contemporary fire regimes operating in a semi-arid region of inland south-western Australia with rainfall averaging around 300 mm per annum. To characterize fire regimes, we analyzed a geodatabase of fire scars (1960–2018) to derive fire preferences for each major vegetation type and fire episode and used known fire intervals to model fire hazard over time and calculate typical fire frequencies. We also used super epoch analysis and correlations to explore relationships between annual fire extent and rainfall received before the fire. We found fires strongly favored sandplain shrublands, and these tended to experience hot crown fires once every 100 years (median fire interval), with fire hazard increasing linearly over time. In contrast, fires were rare in eucalypt woodland and other vegetation types, with a median interval of 870 years and broadly consistent fire hazard over time. Annual fire extent was most strongly linked with high rainfall in the year prior to fire, and this was particularly so for eucalypt woodlands. Large-scale fires in shrublands tended to favor areas burnt in previous large fires, whereas in woodlands they favored edges. In conclusion, we found divergent fire regimes across the major vegetation types of the region. Sandplain shrublands were similar to Mediterranean shrublands in that they experienced intense stand-replacing wildfires which recovered vigorously although slowly, meaning burnt shrublands did not experience fires again for at least 25 and 100 years on average. In contrast, eucalypt woodlands were fire sensitive (trees readily killed by fire) and experienced fires mostly around the edges, spreading into core areas only after large rainfall events elevated fuel levels. Overall, both vegetation types subscribed to typical arid-zone fire regimes where elevated rainfall, and not drought, promoted fires, although the role of fuel accumulation over time was more important in the shrublands.

Modelling the impact of canker disease and fire regimes on the population dynamics and extinction risk of the Critically Endangered and granite endemic shrub

Landscape-level processes such as fire regimes, increasing disease prevalence and a drying climate are emerging threats affecting plant groups such as the Proteaceae. Using field derived empirical data and a population simulation model we investigated population-level impacts of canker diseases and contemporary fire regimes on the threatened shrub and granite outcrop endemic Banksia verticillata R.Br. We found the persistence of B. verticillata on granite inselbergs is strongly influenced by fire frequency and extent, as well as the prevalence of canker disease. For populations where canker is present but having a relatively lower impact none of the fire scenarios resulted in extinction over the 100-year simulation, but all scenarios resulted in population decline with the magnitude of the effect increasing with fire frequency and extent (proportion of plants killed). In contrast, higher impact canker disease scenarios resulted in rapid population declines and potential extinction. Small increases in inter-fire adult survival reduced the rate of decline in populations with relatively low canker infestation. Research is urgently needed to understand the role that a warming and drying climate in the South-west Australian Floristic Region may have on the epidemiology of canker disease and the feasibility and effectiveness of treating individuals with appropriate fungicides.

Vegetation fires in the Anthropocene

Vegetation fires are an essential component of the Earth system but can also cause substantial economic losses, severe air pollution, human mortality and environmental damage. Contemporary fire regimes are increasingly impacted by human activities and climate change, but, owing to the complex fire–human–climate interactions and incomplete historical or long-term datasets, it is difficult to detect and project fire-regime trajectories. In this Review, we describe recent global and regional trends in fire activity and examine projections for fire regimes in the near future. Although there are large uncertainties, it is likely that the economic and environmental impacts of vegetation fires will worsen as a result of anthropogenic climate change. These effects will be particularly prominent in flammable forests in populated temperate zones, the sparsely inhabited flammable boreal zone and fire-sensitive tropical rainforests, and will contribute to greenhouse gas emissions. The impacts of increased fire activity can be mitigated through effective stewardship of fire regimes, which should be achieved through evidence-based fire management that incorporates indigenous and local knowledge, combined with planning and design of natural and urban landscapes. Increasing transdisciplinary research is needed to fully understand how Anthropocene fire regimes are changing and how humans must adapt.

Effects of human-related and biotic landscape features on the occurrence and size of modern forest fires in Sweden

The influence of landscape features on the occurrence and size of forest fires in Northern Europe has not been well-studied. In this paper, we analyzed the impact of human-related landscape properties (road and human population density), biotic features (amount of firebreak area and vegetation zone) and fire weather indices (Buildup Index, BUI and Initial Spread Index, ISI) on the occurrence and size of forest fires in Sweden from 1998 to 2017. To analyze the environmental controls of fire occurrence and fire size under different levels of climatological fire hazard, we divided the data into two subsets: (1) large fire years (LFY), defined as the years with the total amount of burned area being higher than the dataset-wide average (2002, 2003, 2006, 2008 and 2014), and (2) the remaining years (nLFY). Our analytical approach was based on spatial models using Integrated Nested Laplace Approximations (INLA). Models built on both LFY and nLFY subsets suggested a strong human influence on fire occurrence: road density, the number of firebreaks, and population density, all were positively associated with fire occurrence, suggesting an important role of human-related ignitions. The southernmost vegetation zones in Sweden (boreo-nemoral and nemoral) exhibited the highest fire occurrence (LFY), a pattern potentially related to a higher population density in combination with weather more conducive for fires in this part of the country. The patterns that emerged from the fire size models pointed to the climate as the main factor controlling fire size, irrespective of the type of years analyzed. Road density, number of firebreaks and population density showed a negative association with fire size, possibly indicating higher efficiency of fire suppression in the areas with higher human presence. Vegetation zones were selected as an informative predictor, indicating that the fire activity varies across the zones, with those in mid-Sweden being the most prone to large events. The ISI correlated strongly and positively with fire size in both subsets (LFY and nLFY), pointing to the role of weather conditions favorable for fire spread, primarily that of surface fires. The BUI showed a weak negative correlation to fire size, indicating that dryness of organic horizon, specifically its deeper layers, is less relevant for predicting fire size. Contemporary fire activity in Sweden is driven by a combination of human-related ignitions, and weather conditions controlling fire spread with a moderate effect of vegetation composition and generally efficient fire suppression. Human-related landscape features (roads and population density) play a major role in shaping ignition patterns, whereas climate (ISI) and vegetation properties appear informative as predictors of fire size, even under a modern fire suppression effort.

Distribution and abundance of large herbivores in a northern Australian tropical savanna: A multi‐scale approach

AbstractAustralian mammals have exhibited exceptionally high rates of decline since European settlement 230 years ago with much focus on small mammals in northern tropical savannas. In these systems, little scientific attention has been given to the suite of grazing macropods, family Macropodidae, (common wallaroo (Osphranter robustus), antilopine wallaroo (O. antilopinus) and agile wallaby (Notamacropus agilis)). These species may be impacted by feral herbivores and contemporary fire regimes, two threats linked to small mammal declines. A multi‐scale approach using aerial surveys, road surveys and camera trapping was utilised to determine the effects of feral cattle and fire on the distribution and abundance of large macropods in the North Kimberley bioregion. Feral cattle density and biomass exceeded that of macropods regardless of survey technique. Density estimates for cattle were up to 125 times higher (0.3–10.0 km−2) than estimates for macropods (0.08–0.49 km−2). Cattle biomass, based on the aerial survey estimates (corrected for perception bias), were 15 and 95 times higher than macropods for infertile (279 vs. 19 kg km−2) and fertile savannas (518 vs. 5 kg km−2), respectively. Proximity to the nearest pastoral station was a significant predictor of the aerial sightings of feral cattle (P ≤ 0.05). Abundance and foraging activity of cattle were positively associated (P ≤ 0.05) with recently burnt areas. In contrast, camera trapping showed agile wallaby and wallaroo occurrence and foraging were associated with longer unburnt areas (P ≤ 0.05). Agile wallaby and wallaroo were negatively associated with cattle (P ≤ 0.05) and showed substantial diurnal and seasonal separation consistent with an antagonistic interspecific interaction. Results also suggest that the agile wallaby is the primary prey of the dingo, not wallaroo. Collectively, this study suggests that recent landscape changes such as altered fire regimes and introduced herbivores have negatively impacted large grazing macropod species.

Contemporary Fire Regimes Provide a Critical Perspective on Restoration Needs in the Mexico-United States Borderlands

The relationship between people and wildfire has always been paradoxical: fire is an essential ecological process and management tool, but can also be detrimental to life and property. Consequently, fire regimes have been modified throughout history through both intentional burning to promote benefits and active suppression to reduce risks. Reintroducing fire and its benefits back into the Sky Island mountains of the United States-Mexico borderlands has the potential to reduce adverse effects of altered fire regimes and build resilient ecosystems and human communities. To help guide regional fire restoration, we describe the frequency and severity of recent fires over a 32-year period (1985-2017) across a vast binational region in the United States-Mexico borderlands and assess variation in fire frequency and severity across climate gradients and in relation to vegetation and land tenure classes. We synthesize relevant literature on historical fire regimes within 9 major vegetation types and assess how observed contemporary fire characteristics vary from expectations based on historical patterns. Less than 28% of the study area burned during the observation period, excluding vegetation types in warmer climates that are not adapted to fire (eg, Desertscrub and Thornscrub). Average severity of recent fires was low despite some extreme outliers in cooler, wetter environments. Midway along regional temperature and precipitation gradients, approximately 64% of Pine-Oak Forests burned at least once, with fire frequencies that mainly corresponded to historical expectations on private lands in Mexico but less so on communal lands, suggesting the influence of land management. Fire frequency was higher than historical expectations in extremely cool and wet environments that support forest types such as Spruce-Fir, indicating threats to these systems possibly attributable to drought and other factors. In contrast, fires were absent or infrequent across large areas of Woodlands (~73% unburned) and Grasslands (~88% unburned) due possibly to overgrazing, which reduces abundance and continuity of fine fuels needed to carry fire. Our findings provide a new depiction of fire regimes in the Sky Islands that can help inform fire management, restoration, and regional conservation planning, fostered by local and traditional knowledge and collaboration among landowners and managers.

A fiery past: A comparison of glacial and contemporary fire regimes on the Palaeo-Agulhas Plain, Cape Floristic Region

Landscape-level fire governs vegetation structure and composition in the contemporary Cape Floristic Region (CFR) and was key to the existence of Middle Stone-Age hunter gatherers on the Palaeo-Agulhas Plain (PAP). However, virtually nothing is known about Pleistocene fire regimes of the CFR. We characterized the fire danger climate of the PAP during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; 19–26 ka BP) based on palaeo-climate simulations and explored the severity and seasonality of fire danger weather along west-east and coastal-inland gradients across the PAP. We used knowledge of relationships between contemporary fire climate and contemporary CFR fire regimes to propose LGM fire regimes in relation to simulated LGM fire climate. We found that the severity of fire weather during the LGM across the PAP was significantly higher than present; mean fire danger index scores and the incidence of high fire danger days were greater, while the seasonality of fire weather was more pronounced, exhibiting summer-autumn fire regimes across the PAP. Although a more severe fire climate suggests potentially more frequent fires than present, slower fuel accumulation due to colder temperatures, reduced solar radiation and lower atmospheric CO2 may have partly countered this effect. Our proposed LGM fire regimes predict the vegetation of the PAP to have been dominated by fire tolerant, largely Mediterranean-climate formations such as fynbos, renosterveld and grassland, but is unlikely to have provided a driver for mass seasonal east-west migration of large grazers on the PAP.

Quantifying fire trends in boreal forests with Landsat time series and self-organized criticality

Boreal forests are globally extensive and store large amounts of carbon, but recent climate change has led to drier conditions and increasing fire activity. The objective of this study is to quantify trends in fire size and frequency using data spanning multiple scales in space and time. We use multi-temporal Landsat image compositing on Google Earth Engine and validate results with reference fire maps from the Canadian Park Service. We also interpret general fire trends through the concept of Self-Organized Criticality (SOC). Our study site is Wood Buffalo National Park, which is a fire hot spot in Canada due to frequent lightning ignitions. The relativize differenced normalized burn ratio (RdNBR) was the most accurate Landsat-based burn severity metric we evaluated (52.2% producer's accuracy, 87.6% user's accuracy). The Landsat-based burn severity maps provided a better fit for a linear relationship on the log-log scale of fire size and frequency than a manually drawn fire map. Landsat-based fire trends since 1990 conformed to a power-law distribution with a slope of 1.9, which is related to fractal dimensions of the satellite-based fire perimeter shapes. The unburned and low-severity patches within the burn severity mosaic influenced the power-law slope and associated fractal dimensionality. This study demonstrates a multi-scale and multi-dataset technique to quantify general fire trends and changing fire cycles in remote locations and establishes a baseline database for assessing future fire activity. Testing criticality by power laws helps to quantify emergent trends of contemporary fire regimes, which could inform the strategic application of prescribed fire and other management activities. Natural resource managers can utilize information from this study to understand local ecosystem adaptability to large fire events and ecosystem stability in the context of recent increasing fire activity.

Fire hazard in buildings: review, assessment and strategies for improving fire safety

Purpose The current fire protection measures in buildings do not account for all contemporary fire hazard issues, which has made fire safety a growing concern. Therefore, this paper aims to present a critical review of current fire protection measures and their applicability to address current challenges relating to fire hazards in buildings. Design/methodology/approach To overcome fire hazards in buildings, impact of fire hazards is also reviewed to set the context for fire protection measures. Based on the review, an integrated framework for mitigation of fire hazards is proposed. The proposed framework involves enhancement of fire safety in four key areas: fire protection features in buildings, regulation and enforcement, consumer awareness and technology and resources advancement. Detailed strategies on improving fire safety in buildings in these four key areas are presented, and future research and training needs are identified. Findings Current fire protection measures lead to an unquantified level of fire safety in buildings, provide minimal strategies to mitigate fire hazard and do not account for contemporary fire hazard issues. Implementing key measures that include reliable fire protection systems, proper regulation and enforcement of building code provisions, enhancement of public awareness and proper use of technology and resources is key to mitigating fire hazard in buildings. Major research and training required to improve fire safety in buildings include developing cost-effective fire suppression systems and rational fire design approaches, characterizing new materials and developing performance-based codes. Practical implications The proposed framework encompasses both prevention and management of fire hazard. To demonstrate the applicability of this framework in improving fire safety in buildings, major limitations of current fire protection measures are identified, and detailed strategies are provided to address these limitations using proposed fire safety framework. Social implications Fire represents a severe hazard in both developing and developed countries and poses significant threat to life, structure, property and environment. The proposed framework has social implications as it addresses some of the current challenges relating to fire hazard in buildings and will enhance overall fire safety. Originality/value The novelty of proposed framework lies in encompassing both prevention and management of fire hazard. This is unlike current fire safety improvement strategies, which focus only on improving fire protection features in buildings (i.e. managing impact of fire hazard) using performance-based codes. To demonstrate the applicability of this framework in improving fire safety in buildings, major limitations of current fire protection measures are identified and detailed strategies are provided to address these limitations using proposed fire safety framework. Special emphasis is given to cost-effectiveness of proposed strategies, and research and training needs for further enhancing building fire safety are identified.

The missing fire: quantifying human exclusion of wildfire in Pacific Northwest forests, USA

AbstractWestern U.S. wildfire area burned has increased dramatically over the last half‐century. How contemporary extent and severity of wildfires compare to the pre‐settlement patterns to which ecosystems are adapted is debated. We compared large wildfires in Pacific Northwest forests from 1984 to 2015 to modeled historic fire regimes. Despite late twentieth‐century increases in area burned, we show that Pacific Northwest forests have experienced an order of magnitude less fire over 32 yr than expected under historic fire regimes. Within fires that have burned, severity distributions are disconnected from historical references. From 1984 to 2015, 1.6 M ha burned; this is 13.3–18.9 M ha less than expected. Deficits were greatest in dry forest ecosystems adapted to frequent, low‐severity fire, where 7.2–10.3 M ha of low‐severity fire was missing, compared to a 0.2–1.1 M ha deficit of high‐severity fire. When these dry forests do burn, we observed that 36% burned with high‐severity compared to 6–9% historically. We found smaller fire deficits, 0.3–0.6 M ha, within forest ecosystems adapted to infrequent, high‐severity fire. However, we also acknowledge inherent limitations in evaluating contemporary fire regimes in ecosystems which historically burned infrequently and for which fires were highly episodic. The magnitude of contemporary fire deficits and disconnect in burn severity compared to historic fire regimes have important implications for climate change adaptation. Within forests characterized by low‐ and mixed‐severity historic fire regimes, simply increasing wildfire extent while maintaining current trends in burn severity threatens ecosystem resilience and will potentially drive undesirable ecosystem transformations. Restoring natural fire regimes requires management that facilitates much more low‐ and moderate‐severity fire.

Historical patterns of fire severity and forest structure and composition in a landscape structured by frequent large fires: Pumice Plateau ecoregion, Oregon, USA

Lack of quantitative observations of extent, frequency, and severity of large historical fires constrains awareness of departure of contemporary conditions from those that demonstrated resistance and resilience to frequent fire and recurring drought. Compare historical and contemporary fire and forest conditions for a dry forest landscape with few barriers to fire spread. Quantify differences in (1) historical (1700–1918) and contemporary (1985–2015) fire extent, fire rotation, and stand-replacing fire and (2) historical (1914–1924) and contemporary (2012) forest structure and composition. Data include 85,750-ha tree-ring reconstruction of fire frequency and extent; > 375,000-ha timber inventory following > 78,900-ha fires in 1918; and remotely-sensed maps of contemporary fire effects and forest conditions. Historically, fires > 20,000 ha occurred every 9.5 years; fire rotation was 14.9 years; seven fires > 40,469 ha occurred during extreme drought (PDSI 15 cm dbh exceeded 120 trees/ha on 40,469 ha (minimum size of contemporary “megafires”) during extreme drought. In this frequent-fire landscape, mixed-severity fire historically influenced lodgepole and adjacent forests. Lack of large, frequent, low-severity fires degrades contemporary forest ecosystems.

Fire-regime changes in Canada over the last half century

Contemporary fire regimes of Canadian forests have been well documented based on forest fire records between the late 1950s to 1990s. Due to known limitations of fire datasets, an analysis of changes in fire-regime characteristics could not be easily undertaken. This paper presents fire-regime trends nationally and within two zonation systems, the homogeneous fire-regime zones and ecozones, for two time periods, 1959–2015 and 1980–2015. Nationally, trends in both area burned and number of large fires (≥200 ha) have increased significantly since 1959, which might be due to increases in lightning-caused fires. Human-caused fires, in contrast, have shown a decline. Results suggest that large fires have been getting larger over the last 57 years and that the fire season has been starting approximately one week earlier and ending one week later. At the regional level, trends in fire regimes are variable across the country, with fewer significant trends. Area burned, number of large fires, and lightning-caused fires are increasing in most of western Canada, whereas human-caused fires are either stable or declining throughout the country. Overall, Canadian forests appear to have been engaged in a trajectory towards more active fire regimes over the last half century.

Distant neighbors: recent wildfire patterns of the Madrean Sky Islands of southwestern United States and northwestern Mexico

BackgroundInformation about contemporary fire regimes across the Sky Island mountain ranges of the Madrean Archipelago Ecoregion in the southwestern United States and northern Mexico can provide insight into how historical fire management and land use have influenced fire regimes, and can be used to guide fuels management, ecological restoration, and habitat conservation. To contribute to a better understanding of spatial and temporal patterns of fires in the region relative to environmental and anthropogenic influences, we augmented existing fire perimeter data for the US by mapping wildfires that occurred in the Mexican Sky Islands from 1985 to 2011.ResultsA total of 254 fires were identified across the region: 99 fires in Mexico (μ = 3901 ha, σ = 5066 ha) and 155 in the US (μ = 3808 ha, σ = 8368 ha). The Animas, Chiricahua, Huachuca-Patagonia, and Santa Catalina mountains in the US, and El Pinito in Mexico had the highest proportion of total area burned (>50%) relative to Sky Island size. Sky Islands adjacent to the border had the greatest number of fires, and many of these fires were large with complex shapes. Wildfire occurred more often in remote biomes, characterized by evergreen woodlands and conifer forests with cooler, wetter conditions. The five largest fires (>25 000 ha) all occurred during twenty-first century droughts (2002 to 2003 and 2011); four of these were in the US and one in Mexico. Overall, high variation in fire shape and size were observed in both wetter and drier years, contributing to landscape heterogeneity across the region.ConclusionsFuture research on regional fire patterns, including fire severity, will enhance opportunities for collaborative efforts between countries, improve knowledge about ecological patterns and processes in the borderlands, and support long-term planning and restoration efforts.

Contemporary Fire Regimes of the Arid Carnarvon Basin Region of Western Australia

This study investigates the fire regime for the arid Carnarvon Basin region of Western Australia using remotely sensed imagery. A fire history database was constructed from satellite images to characterise the general fire regime and determine any effect of vegetation types and pre-fire weather and climate. The study area was divided into two sections (northern and southern) due to their inherently different vegetation and climate. A total of 23.8% (15,646 km2) of the study area was burnt during the 39-year study period. Heathland vegetation (54%) burnt the most extensively in the southern study area, and hummock grasslands (68%) in the northern. A single, unusually large fire in 2012 followed exceptional rains in the previous 12 months and accounted for 55% of the total burnt area. This fire burnt mainly through Acacia shrublands and woodlands rather than hummock grasslands, as normally experienced in the northern study area. Antecedent rainfall and fire weather were found to be the main meteorological factors driving fire size. Both study areas showed a moderate to strong correlation between fire size and increased pre-fire rainfall in the year preceding the fire. Predicted future changes in climate may lead to more frequent and higher intensity fires.

Have some landscapes in the eastern Canadian boreal forest moved beyond their natural range of variability?

BackgroundIn the context of ecosystem management, the present study aims to compare the natural and the present-day forested landscapes of a large territory in Quebec (Canada). Using contemporary and long-term fire cycles, each natural forest landscape is defined according to the variability of its structure and composition, and compared to the present-day landscape. This analysis was conducted to address the question of whether human activities have moved these ecosystems outside the range of natural landscape variability.MethodsThe study encompassed a forested area of 175 000 km2 divided into 14 landscapes. Using a framework that integrates fire cycles, age structure and forest dynamics, we characterized the forest composition and age structures that resulted from three historical fire cycles (110, 140, and 180 years) representative of the boreal forest of eastern Canada. The modeled natural landscapes were compared with present-day landscapes in regard to the proportion of old-growth forests (landscape level) and the proportion of late-successional forest stands (landscape level and potential vegetation type).ResultsFour landscapes (39%) remain within their natural range of variability. In contrast, nine landscapes (54%) show a large gap between natural and present-day landscapes. These nine are located in the southern portion of the study area, and are mainly associated with Abies-Betula vegetation where human activities have contributed to a strong increase in the proportion of Populus tremuloides stands (early-successional stages) and a decrease of old-growth forest stands (more than 100 years old). A single landscape (7%), substantially changed from its potential natural state, is a candidate for adaptive-based management.ConclusionComparison of corresponding natural (reference conditions) and present-day landscapes showed that ten landscapes reflecting an important shift in forest composition and age structure could be considered beyond the range of their natural variability. The description of a landscape’s natural variability at the scale of several millennia can be considered a moving benchmark that can be re-evaluated in the context of climate change. Focusing on regional landscape characteristics and long-term natural variability of vegetation and forest age structure represents a step forward in methodology for defining reference conditions and following shifts in landscape over time.

Regional and local controls on historical fire regimes of dry forests and woodlands in the Rogue River Basin, Oregon, USA

Fire regimes structure plant communities worldwide with regional and local factors, including anthropogenic fire management, influencing fire frequency and severity. Forests of the Rogue River Basin in Oregon, USA, are both productive and fire-prone due to ample winter precipitation and summer drought; yet management in this region is strongly influenced by forest practices that depend on fire exclusion. Regionally, climate change is increasing fire frequency, elevating the importance of understanding historically frequent-fire regimes.We use cross-dated fire-scars to characterize historical fire return intervals, seasonality, and relationships with climate beginning in 1650 CE for 13 sites representative of southwestern Oregon dry forests. Using systematic literature review, we link our local fire histories to a regional dataset and evaluate our data relative to more intensively studied conifer/hardwood forest types in California.Fire-scars show that fires in the Rogue Basin were frequent and regular until disrupted in the 1850s through 1910s, corresponding with forced displacement of Native Americans and Euro-American settlement. Median historical fire return intervals were 8 years at the stand-scale (<25 ha), with site medians ranging from five to 14 years and no significant differences between sampled vegetation types. Burn seasonality was broadly distributed with 47% of recorded fires in the latewood (midsummer), 30% at the ring boundary (late summer and fall), and 23% in the earlywood (spring and early summer).The number of sites recording fire each year was associated with Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and El Niño Southern Oscillation Index (ENSO). Fires were detected in the study area every other year, and synchrony among sites was associated with stronger annual drought. The ENSO synchronization of fire suggests an herbaceous fuel signal, with warm winters/wet summers two years prior to widespread fire-years, a pattern observed globally in fuel-limited systems.Stand-scale fire histories in the Klamath, southern Cascades, and northern Sierra Nevada ecoregions resemble Rogue River Basin stand-scale fire histories. Across dry mixed conifer, yellow pine, and mixed evergreen forests, fire return intervals converged on 8 years. Moist mixed conifer and red fir forests exhibited 13-year fire return intervals. Across ecoregions, fire periodicity was weakly correlated with climatic water deficit, but well-modeled by elevation, precipitation, and temperature. These data highlight the need for decadal fire and burning outside of the contemporary fire season for forest restoration and climate adaptation in the dry forests of the Rogue Basin.

Analyzing fine-scale spatiotemporal drivers of wildfire in a forest landscape model

We developed and applied a wildfire simulation package in the Envision agent-based landscape modelling system. The wildfire package combines statistical modelling of fire occurrence with a high-resolution, mechanistic wildfire spread model that can capture fine scale effects of fire feedbacks and fuel management, and replicate restoration strategies at scales that are meaningful to forest managers. We applied the model to a landscape covering 1.2 million ha of fire prone area in central Oregon, USA where wildland fires are increasingly impacting conservation, amenity values and developed areas. We conducted simulations to examine the effect of human versus natural ignitions on future fire regimes under current restoration programs, and whether contemporary fire regimes observed in the past 20 years are likely to change as result of fire feedbacks and management activities. The ignition prediction model revealed non-linear effects of location and time of year, and distinct spatiotemporal patterns for human versus natural ignitions. Fire rotation interval among replicate simulations varied from 78 to 170 years and changed little over the 50-yr simulation, suggesting a stable but highly variable and uncertain future fire regime. Interestingly, the potential for fire-on-fire feedbacks was higher for human versus natural ignitions due to human ignition hotspots within the study area. We compare the methods and findings with other forest landscape simulation model (FLSM) studies and discuss future application of FLSMs to address emerging wildfire management and policy issues on fire frequent forests in the western US.

Using bioregional variation in fire history and fire response attributes as a basis for managing threatened flora in a fire-prone Mediterranean climate biodiversity hotspot

Inappropriate fire-regimes brought about by patterns of human settlement and land-use threaten plant diversity in Mediterranean-type climate (MTC) regions. In south-west Western Australia (SWWA), where there are many threatened plant species distributed across a range of human-modified landscapes, there is a need for approaches to identify where the threat is greatest. This requires knowledge of contemporary fire regimes, how they vary across landscapes, and the sensitivity of threatened species to these regimes. Currently, this information is lacking, and this limits strategic fire management. In this study we compiled fire response information for SWWA’s threatened plant species and undertook a bioregional assessment of variation in fire interval over the last 40 years. We determined the fire response traits of 242 (60%) of the region’s 401 extant threatened species. Over half of the 242 species were obligate seeders and will therefore have population dynamics particularly sensitive to fire interval. Our study highlights large differences in fire interval across nine bioregions in SWWA. The differences were greatest for the heavily cleared and fragmented bioregions compared with more continuously vegetated bioregions. We discuss how variations in the frequency of fire life-history traits and fire interval interact to determine the nature and relative level of threat posed by fire in these landscapes. Survival of many populations of threatened flora in this biodiversity hotspot will depend on developing appropriate fire regimes that match the regeneration requirements of each species.

Fire-Driven Decline of Endemic Allosyncarpia Monsoon Rainforests in Northern Australia

Although contemporary fire regimes in fire-prone Australian savannas are recognised as having major impacts on an array of biodiversity and environmental values, a number of studies have observed significant monsoon rainforest expansion in recent decades. Here we assess the status of a locally extensive endemic monsoon rainforest type, dominated by Allosyncarpia ternata (Myrtaceae), restricted to sandstone terrain including in the World Heritage property, Kakadu National Park. We undertook assessments of: (1) geographic correlates of Allosyncarpia forest distribution; (2) change in canopy cover at 40 representative forest patches at topographically exposed sites with reference to a 60-year aerial photo and fine-scale image archive, and fire mapping data; and (3) structural characteristics associated with sites exhibiting stable, contracting, and increasing canopy cover. Mean canopy cover at sampled forest patches declined by 9.5% over the study period. Most canopy loss occurred at the most fire-susceptible patches. Assessment of structural characteristics at sampled sites illustrated that canopy expansion represented vegetative recovery rather than expansion de novo. The study (1) confirms the vulnerability of exposed margins of this forest type to fire incursions; (2) illustrates the magnitude of, and describes solutions for addressing, the regional conservation management challenge; and (3) serves as a reminder that, in savanna environments, severe fire regimes can substantially outweigh the woody growth-enhancing effects of other regional (e.g., increased rainfall) and global-scale (e.g., atmospheric CO2 fertilisation) drivers.

Assessing fire impacts on the carbon stability of fire-tolerant forests.

The carbon stability of fire-tolerant forests is often assumed but less frequently assessed, limiting the potential to anticipate threats to forest carbon posed by predicted increases in forest fire activity. Assessing the carbon stability of fire-tolerant forests requires multi-indicator approaches that recognize the myriad ways that fires influence the carbon balance, including combustion, deposition of pyrogenic material, and tree death, post-fire decomposition, recruitment, and growth. Five years after a large-scale wildfire in southeastern Australia, we assessed the impacts of low- and high-severity wildfire, with and without prescribed fire (≤10yr before), on carbon stocks in multiple pools, and on carbon stability indicators (carbon stock percentages in live trees and in small trees, and carbon stocks in char and fuels) in fire-tolerant eucalypt forests. Relative to unburned forest, high-severity wildfire decreased short-term (five-year) carbon stability by significantly decreasing live tree carbon stocks and percentage stocks in live standing trees (reflecting elevated tree mortality), by increasing the percentage of live tree carbon in small trees (those vulnerable to the next fire), and by potentially increasing the probability of another fire through increased elevated fine fuel loads. In contrast, low-severity wildfire enhanced carbon stability by having negligible effects on aboveground stocks and indicators, and by significantly increasing carbon stocks in char and, in particular, soils, indicating pyrogenic carbon accumulation. Overall, recent preceding prescribed fire did not markedly influence wildfire effects on short-term carbon stability at stand scales. Despite wide confidence intervals around mean stock differences, indicating uncertainty about the magnitude of fire effects in these natural forests, our assessment highlights the need for active management of carbon assets in fire-tolerant eucalypt forests under contemporary fire regimes. Decreased live tree carbon and increased reliance on younger cohorts for carbon recovery after high-severity wildfire could increase vulnerabilities to imminent fires, leading to decisions about interventions to maintain the productivity of some stands. Our multi-indicator assessment also highlights the importance of considering all carbon pools, particularly pyrogenic reservoirs like soils, when evaluating the potential for prescribed fire regimes to mitigate the carbon costs of wildfires in fire-prone landscapes.