Contemporaneous Stock Returns Research Articles

Comparing sentiment and sentiment shock in stock returns

PurposeThe authors compare sentiment level with sentiment shock from different angles to determine which measure better captures the relationship between sentiment and stock returns.Design/methodology/approachThis paper examines the relationship between investor sentiment and contemporaneous stock returns. It also proposes a model of systems science to explain the empirical findings.FindingsThe authors find that sentiment shock has a higher explanatory power on stock returns than sentiment itself, and sentiment shock beta exhibits a much higher statistical significance than sentiment beta. Compared with sentiment level, sentiment shock has a more robust linkage to the market factors and the sentiment shock is more responsive to stock returns.Originality/valueThis is the first study to compare sentiment level and sentiment shock. It concludes that sentiment shock is a better indicator of the relationship between investor sentiment and contemporary stock returns.

StockTwits classified sentiment and stock returns

We classify the sentiment of a large sample of StockTwits messages as bullish, bearish or neutral, and create a stock-aggregate daily sentiment polarity measure. Polarity is positively associated with contemporaneous stock returns. On average, polarity is not able to predict next-day stock returns. But when we condition on specific events, defined as sudden peaks of message volume, polarity has predictive power on abnormal returns. Polarity-sorted portfolios illustrate the economic relevance of our sentiment measure.

Should asset impairments be included in earnings when evaluating stewardship by management?

PurposeThis paper aims to consider the relevance of asset impairments when evaluating stewardship by management.Design/methodology/approachThis paper considers association of earnings (including and excluding asset impairments) with contemporaneous stock returns which are used as a measure of management performance and demonstration of stewardship.FindingsEvidence is provided of earnings including asset impairments (an accounting measure of current measure firm performance) having a higher explanatory power for contemporaneous stock returns (an objective evaluation of current period firm performance) than earnings exclusive of asset impairments. Consistent with this, recognized asset impairments are significantly associated with contemporaneous stock returns. These results occur across firm years generally, as well as for firm years exhibiting indicators of impairment and firm years recognizing asset impairments.Research limitations/implicationsThis paper adds to the literature providing evidence of asset impairments not being recognised on a timely basis. Additionally, challenges are identified in evaluating the relevance of accounting information for so-called growth firms.Practical implicationsThese findings support continued recognition of asset impairments in the Statement of Profit or Loss if stewardship is accepted as an objective for financial reporting. It also suggests issues with the recognition of asset impairments that might be addressed by enhanced disclosure.Originality/valueThis paper is distinctive in that it considers the relevance of accounting information for evaluating stewardship, as distinct from decision-making. It also considers alternate measure of performance (earnings including and excluding asset impairments) for all firms rather than only those disclosing an alternate measure (i.e. a fair horse race)

Why does option-implied volatility forecast realized volatility? Evidence from news events

This study examines the information content of stock option-implied volatility. We measure the arrival intensities and magnitudes of scheduled and unscheduled news as well as fundamental and non-fundamental news. Most of these news measures exhibit strong and positive associations with contemporaneous stock return volatility, and many of them can be predicted by implied volatility. Approximately one third of the predictive power of implied volatility on future realized volatility can be attributed to its ability to predict these news measures, with the majority of the predictive power arising from its capacity to predict the arrival intensities of both scheduled and unscheduled news. The predictive power is higher for fundamental news than for non-fundamental news.

Research and development reporting and stock performance: evidence from China

PurposeChina adopted its new Accounting Standards for Business Enterprises No. 6 in 2007, which substantially converges with the International Financial Reporting Standards. It stipulates that firms operating in China shall capitalize development costs provided specific criteria have been met. This paper aims to examine the effects of the new accounting policies of R&D on the value-relevance and stock performance of 36,299 Chinese firms-years from 2007 to 2020.Design/methodology/approachA comprehensive multi-stage analysis was conducted. Multiple linear regressions were performed on the pooled cross-sectional time-series total R&D, capitalized expenditures, expensed costs and other key financial factors to test for the effects of R&D on the stock prices, contemporaneous stock returns and subsequent stock returns for the full sample, capitalizer sample and expenser sample, respectively.FindingsFirst, majority of Chinese firms (about 80% of those reported) elect to adopt expensing R&D approach, while about 20% deploys capitalization treatment. Second, key attributes such as size, profitability, leverage and R&D intensity are highly associated with capitalization propensity. Third, current capitalization affects the contemporaneous stock prices and stock returns (priced-in) with yearly volatility. Finally, intertemporal association exists between firms’ expensing costs and subsequent returns due to a delayed reaction.Originality/valueAs the world largest emerging economy, the results show that research and development information adds value, and capitalizers outperforms expensers in the area of stock performance. This strategy works irrespectively of economic development stage or capital market maturity. The findings call for more capitalization.

The effect of financial analysts on the economic implications of disclosed lease information – a note

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to investigate whether financial analyst coverage affects the dissemination of disclosed operating lease information into cash flow predictions and stock prices.Design/methodology/approachThe difference in lease expense between capital/finance lease and operating lease reporting is estimated based on the approach in Hsieh and Su (2015). This difference is referred to as the earnings impact from operating lease capitalization and is only available from footnotes. The authors then include the level of financial analyst following in a cash flow model to study its impact on the cash flow predictive value of the earnings impact. Similarly, the level of financial analyst following is inserted in an earnings-return model to assess the effect of analyst coverage on the association between contemporaneous stock returns and earnings impact.FindingsThe authors find that the cash flow predictive value of the earnings impact shifts to the interaction between analyst coverage and the earnings impact, suggesting that the decision-usefulness of the earnings impact is conditioned on the level of analyst following. Nevertheless, the authors find that the earnings impact continues to have explanatory value for the contemporaneous stock returns, while the interaction between analyst coverage and the earnings impact does not. This finding suggests that the earnings impact is already fully reflected in stock prices regardless of analyst following.Research limitations/implicationsSince the estimation of the earnings impact from reporting operating leases as capital leases is based on the method developed by Imhoff et al. (1991), the results and inferences are thus constrained by the validity of the method.Practical implicationsThe authors find that financial analyst activities accelerate the incorporation of the earnings impact from operating lease capitalization in cash flow predictions, but it does not promote the impounding of the earnings impact into stock prices. This finding suggests that financial analysts' influence on the dissemination of the earnings impact hinges on the type of economic activity, and failing to consider the financial analyst following in studying the cash flow predictive value of the earnings impact would obscure the findings.Originality/valueThe authors extend the findings of prior research that financial analysts' activities promote the incorporation of firm-specific information into stock prices by investigating the impact of financial analysts on the dissemination of disclosed operating lease information.

Are All the Sentiment Measures the Same?

The author examines whether the direct and indirect sentiment measures are distinct from each other. The author finds that the 2 types of sentiment measures have a relatively low correlation between them. The direct sentiment measures have significant explanatory power on contemporaneous stock returns, whereas the indirect sentiment measures have a lagging effect in such explanatory power. If both sentiment measures are used in a model, one can observe a strong synergistic effect in adjusted R 2. One can find that the indirect measures’ predictive power on future stock return is remarkably higher than that of the direct measures. Also, the indirect measures are mainly driven by short-term interest rate, whereas stock returns most drive the direct measures.

Managers’ Investment Decisions: Incentives and Economic Consequences Arising from Leases

What incentives do managers face that might give rise to inefficient investments in leases? If managers make inefficient investments in leases, what economic consequences arise for those managers and their firms? We develop a model of expected investments in leased assets and use the residuals from the model as proxies for inefficient investments. We find that, in contrast to investments in capital expenditures, leasing appears to be a mechanism through which managers can seemingly over-invest, even among firms with high quality financial reporting and negative free cash flows. Examining economic consequences, we predict and find that unexpected investments in leased assets trigger increasing future sales growth but declining future earnings growth for as long as three years ahead. We also find a negative relation with contemporaneous stock returns, suggesting investors view unexpected investments in leases as value destructive. Finally, despite negative returns consequences, we find that unexpected investments in leases are associated with higher CEO compensation driven primarily by future sales growth. Our study suggests that compensation contracts that reward growth may give managers’ incentives to drive sales growth with larger-than-expected investments in leased assets, which lead to slower future earnings growth and negative share price consequences for investors. Our results should inform managers and board members, investors, and researchers interested in investment efficiency, corporate governance, and leases.

Value relevance of peer-based benchmarking of discretionary expenses and business strategy

ABSTRACT Research on value relevance of reported selling, general and administrative expenses (SG&A) generally employs historical SG&A as reference point for assessment. This practice tends to ignore the interpretational ambiguity that surrounds the economics of SG&A expenditure and what it means for future profitability and firm value. Organizational theories stress the importance of peer-based benchmarking as an aid for assessment, especially when assessment uncertainty is high, and argue that similarity to peers holds information by lending sensibility, appropriateness and technical value to observed behaviour, thereby reducing assessment uncertainty. Using a sample of listed US firms, we investigate whether SG&A similarity to an industry-specific peer-based benchmark conveys value-relevant information, reducing information asymmetry between firms and investors. We find that only for firms with SG&A exceeding the peer-based benchmark in the previous period, SG&A similarity is associated with higher future financial performance and reduces information asymmetry between firms and investors. We also find that both contemporaneous stock returns and future firm value impound this uncertainty-reducing information conveyed by SG&A similarity. Results further show that the value-relevance of SG&A similarity mainly holds for firms with a Defender-type business strategy and firms from peer groups where business strategies are more similar.

Why does Option Implied Volatility Forecast Realized Volatility? Evidence from News Events

We examine the information content of stock option implied volatility. We measure arrival intensities and magnitudes of various types of news, and find that these news measures are all positively associated with contemporaneous stock return volatility and many of them can be predicted by implied volatility. About 28% of the predictive power of implied volatility on future realized volatility is due to its ability to predict these news measures, and most of the predictive power is from predicting arrival intensities of both scheduled and unscheduled news. The predictive power is higher for fundamental news than for non-fundamental news.

Does Investor Sentiment Affect the Value Relevance of Accounting Information?

We investigate whether investor sentiment affects the relationships between accounting variables and contemporaneous stock returns. Using price‐relevant accounting variables identified by Chen and Zhang (2007) and the investor sentiment index constructed by Baker and Wurgler (2006), we find that the value relevance of accounting variables is collectively lower in high sentiment periods than in low sentiment periods. More importantly, earnings yield appears to be more related to contemporaneous stock returns in high sentiment periods, while other accounting variables are more related to stock returns in low sentiment periods. The effect of investor sentiment on the value relevance of accounting information is stronger for firms that are more difficult to value and to arbitrage.

How does air pollution-induced fund-manager mood affect stock markets in China?

We explore how the moods of open-end fund managers affect stock returns and trading activities. We construct a firm-level measure of fund-manager mood induced by local air pollution. We find that a depressed fund-manager mood significantly decreases the contemporaneous stock returns and liquidity. These results hold in a series of robustness checks. Further, we find that the effects of fund-manager mood on stock returns are more pronounced for firms that are difficult to arbitrage. This study shows another potential channel through which air pollution might impact financial markets.

The Role of a Latent Value-Relevant Measure in Tracking and Predicting Stock Returns: A FAVAR Approach

This paper attempts to estimate and study the role of 'other information', as posited in the residual income valuation model of Ohlson (1995), for tracking and predicting future returns of the S&P 500. 'Other information' is an unobserved variable and defined as a summary of value-relevant information about events and their effect on future profitability, which is captured in a company's current stock price and returns, but not yet reflected in a company's current financial statements. This suggests a potential to predict subsequent returns. Previous literature has found that traditional valuation metrics (e.g. B/P, E/P, and D/P ratios) have poor predictive power. In this study, we apply a factor augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR) to estimate this value-relevant latent variable and assess its predictive performance. The FAVAR is a suitable model because it enables us to analyze and quantify the linkages of stock market value, profitability, and unobserved factors that are broadly captured by big data. We use a two-step principal components estimation approach to extract the unobserved factors of 78 informational variables from financial market, accounting, investor and consumer sentiment, and macroeconomic data. Our analysis shows that, in comparison to competing measures, the estimated latent value-relevant variable can track contemporaneous stock returns and has statistically reliable power to predict both future real stock returns and excess returns over a Treasury Bill rate, both in- and out-of-sample.

Stock returns, illiquidity and feedback trading

PurposeThis study aims to examine the relation between illiquidity, feedback trading and stock returns for several European markets, using panel regression methods, during the financial and the sovereign debt crises. The authors’ interest here lies twofold. First, the authors seek to compare the results obtained here under crisis conditions with those in the existing literature. Second, and of greater importance, the authors wish to examine the interaction between liquidity and feedback trading and their effect on stock returns.Design/methodology/approachThe authors jointly model both feedback trading and illiquidity, which are typically considered in isolation. The authors use panel estimation methods to examine the relations across the European markets as a whole.FindingsThe key results suggest that in common with the literature, illiquidity has a negative impact upon contemporaneous stock returns, while supportive evidence of positive feedback trading is reported. However, in contrast to the existing literature, lagged illiquidity is not a priced risk, while negative shocks do not lead to greater feedback trading behaviour. Regarding the interaction between illiquidity and feedback trading, the study results support the view that greater illiquidity is associated with stronger positive feedback.Originality/valueThe study results suggest that when price changes are more observable, due to low liquidity, then feedback trading increases. Therefore, during the crisis periods that afflicted European markets, the lower levels of liquidity prevalent led to an increase in feedback trading. Thus, negative liquidity shocks that led to a fall in stock prices were exacerbated by feedback trading.

Investor Sentiment and Stock Return Draw-downs

60 million tweets are scraped from Stocktwits.com over 10 years and classified into bullish, bearish or neutral classes to create firm-individual polarity time-series. Changes in polarity are associated with changes of the same sign in contemporaneous stock returns. On average, polarity is not able to predict next day stock returns but when we focus on specific events (defined as sudden peak of tweet activity), polarity has predictive powers on abnormal returns. Finally, we show that bad events act more as surprises than good events.

Leases and Over-investment

What factors enhance investment efficiency in leased assets, and what incentives give rise to over-investments? If firms over-invest in leases, what economic consequences arise? We develop a model of expected investment in leased assets, and use the residuals from the model as proxies for inefficient investments. We find that, in contrast to investments in capital expenditures, leasing appears to be a mechanism for over-investment even among firms with high reporting quality and negative free cash flows. Examining economic consequences, we predict and find that over-investments in leased assets trigger increasing future sales growth but declining future earnings growth for as long as three years ahead. We also find a negative relation with contemporaneous stock returns, suggesting investors view over-investments in leases as value destructive. Finally, despite negative earnings and returns consequences, we find that over-investments in leases are associated with higher CEO compensation driven primarily by future sales growth. Our results should inform investors, board members, and researchers interested in investment efficiency, corporate governance, and leases.

Volatility and the cross-section of corporate bond returns

This paper examines the pricing of volatility risk and idiosyncratic volatility in the cross-section of corporate bond returns for the period of 1994–2016. Results show that bonds with high volatility betas have low expected returns, and this negative relation appears in all segments of corporate bonds. Further, bonds with high idiosyncratic bond (stock) volatility have high (low) expected returns, and this relation strengthens as ratings decrease. Conventional risk factors and bond/issuer characteristics cannot account for these cross-sectional relations. There is evidence that the effect of idiosyncratic stock volatility on expected bond returns works through the channel of contemporaneous stock returns.

The impact of downside risk on UK stock returns

PurposeThis paper aims to investigate patterns in UK stock returns related to downside risk, with particular focus on stock returns during financial crises.Design/methodology/approachFirst, stocks are sorted into five quintile portfolios based on the relevant beta values (classic beta, downside beta and upside beta, calculated by the moving window approach). Second, patterns of portfolio returns are examined during various sub-periods. Finally, predictive powers of beta and downside beta are examined.FindingsThe downside risk is observed to have a significant positive impact on contemporaneous stock returns and a negative impact on future returns in general. In contrast, an inverse relationship between risk and return is observed when stocks are sorted by beta, contrary to the classic literature. UK stock returns exhibit clear time sensitivity, especially during financial crises.Originality/valueThis paper focuses on the impact of the downside risk on UK stock returns, assessed via a comprehensive sub-period analysis. This paper fills the gap in the existing literature, in which very few studies examine the time sensitivity in relation to the downside risk and the risk-return anomaly in the UK stock market using a long sample period.

Rethinking Determinants of Trading Volume at Earnings Announcements

Accounting literature offers three possible determinants of informationally driven trading volume at earnings announcements: differential interpretation of public news, pre-announcement difference in beliefs, and signal strength. We empirically test, conditional on the level of earnings news, which determinant best explains earnings announcement volume. First, consistent with the notion that differential interpretation by itself without a change in the mean of investor valuations (a typical metric of signal strength) is unlikely to drive volume, we document a strong association between volume and signed contemporaneous stock returns. We also show that, at all levels of earnings news, trading volume is most consistently associated with proxies of signal strength. However, we predict and find that volume also reflects differential interpretation for bad news but not for good news due to short sale dynamics. We confirm this asymmetry by observing a decrease in trading volume only for bad news firms after an exogenous reduction in investor disagreement, the staggered EDGAR implementation. Lastly, we find that proxies for the third determinant, pre-announcement belief difference, are the least significant in explaining trading volume. Overall, our results suggest that trading volume at earnings announcements is most reflective of the quantity and quality of information released, but its dynamics vary considerably with the nature of the disclosed news.

Improving Predictions of Upward Cost Adjustment and Cost Asymmetry at the Firm-Year Level

ABSTRACTThis study introduces a new method for predicting cost elasticity with respect to changes in sales that incorporates cost asymmetry at the firm-year level. The new method is based on widely available factors that are expected to influence cost behavior. The new method is subject to fewer data restrictions than the method proposed by Weiss (2010). By extending the cost variability and cost stickiness (CVCS) model of Banker and Chen (2006), we find that incorporating firm-year-specific proxy measures for upward cost adjustment and cost asymmetry significantly enhances earnings forecasts. However, this improvement in forecast accuracy is not reflected in contemporaneous stock returns, pointing toward a partial understanding of cost behavior by capital markets. We further find that predicted cost stickiness is associated with lower analysts' forecast accuracy and a weaker effect of earnings surprises on market reactions, confirming the results reported in Weiss (2010) for his measure of cost asymmetry.JEL Classifications: M41; G12.