Financial Market Contagion Research Articles

Effect of catastrophic disaster in financial market contagion

AbstractThe study examined the contagion effect of financial market volatility from Australian capital market to Indian, New Zealand, Hong Kong, Chinese, Taiwan, and Japanese capital markets due to Australian catastrophe. In the first stage, we employed two-variable vector autoregression (VAR) model for calculating the residuals of the daily index return. In the second stage, we used adjusted correlation coefficient for detecting the significant increase in correlation coefficient of the VAR residuals after the catastrophes. Finally, Fishers r to z transformation was used for identifying contagion. After Victoria bushfire, a significant increase in the adjusted correlation coefficient of Australia with India and Hong Kong and their respective z > +1.96 validates contagion. The adjusted correlation coefficient of Australia with China and Japan increased after the Victoria bushfire but the z 0.05) does not confirm contagion, but rather exposed the persistence of high economic linkage. Apar...

Extremal dependence tests for contagion

ABSTRACTA new test for financial market contagion based on changes in extremal dependence defined as co-kurtosis and co-volatility is developed to identify the propagation mechanism of shocks across international financial markets. The proposed approach captures changes in various aspects of the asset return relationships such as cross-market mean and skewness (co-kurtosis) as well as cross-market volatilities (co-volatility). Monte Carlo experiments show that the tests perform well except for when crisis periods are short in duration. Small crisis sample critical values are calculated for use in this case. In an empirical application involving the global financial crisis of 2008–2009, the results show that significant contagion effects are widespread from the US banking sector to global equity markets and banking sectors through either the co-kurtosis or the co-volatility channels, reinforcing that higher order moments matter during crises.

Conditional Correlation Coefficient as a Tool for Analysis of Contagion in Financial Markets and Real Economy Indexes Based on the Synthetic Ratio

We define contagion in financial markets as a significant increase in cross-market linkages after a shock to one or group of countries. Contagion occurs if cross-market co-movement increases significantly after the shock. In this article, the authors attempt to answer the question whether the selected world stock exchanges and economies are infecting each other within the meaning of the definition provided. Conditional copula functions and conditional Spearman's correlation coefficient will be used as a tool. Construction of a synthetic index of world financial markets is introduced. This index is based on the taxonomic distances of chosen stock market from the “best” object, where the best means object which has highest financial parameters.Main goal of this paper is to analyze changes in dependence between US stock market (S&P500) and chosen groups of world stock markets and constructed real economy index.

금융시장 전염 동적 검정

금융시장 전염 동적 검정

Equity market contagion during global financial and Eurozone crises: Evidence from a dynamic correlation analysis

The devastation resulting from the recent global financial and Eurozone crises is immense. Most researchers commonly believe that the global financial crisis originated in the United States, and spread immediately to global financial hubs where it eventually became the Eurozone crisis. Several studies have been conducted on financial market contagion during both global and Eurozone crises; however, the issue of whether equity market contagion spreads from the United States to the world equity markets during these crises has not been addressed yet. Through using US dollar-denominated MSCI daily indices from fifty-five equity markets for the period 2003–2013, we have found evidence of contagion in developed and emerging markets during the global and Eurozone crises. We show that contagion spread from the United States to the world markets during both crises. Our regression results identify that the bank risk transfer between the United States and other countries is the key transmission channel for cross-country correlations. This study has an important policy implication for portfolio diversification between the United States and other countries during these crises.

Financial market contagion and fine wines: the evidence of the ADCC GARCH model

Using an asymmetric dynamic conditional correlations (ADCC) generalised auto-regressive conditional heteroskedacity (GARCH) framework, the present study explores the possible contagion effects between financial and the fine wines markets during the period of 2003 to 2014. Our results are manifold. Firstly, we demonstrate that the different wine indices are not affected in the same way by financial market volatility. Secondly, it seems that the choice of the financial index selected strongly influences the identification of the contagion effects. Thirdly, we emphasise a proximity or regional effect mediating the contagion transmission of financial market volatility to fine wines indices. Finally, our study reinforces the possible alternative asset nature of fine wines.

Financial market contagion and fine wines: the evidence of the ADCC GARCH model

Financial market contagion and fine wines: the evidence of the ADCC GARCH model

Disequilibria and Contagion in Financial Markets: Evidence from a New Test

This paper provides an analysis of contagion by measuring disequilibria in risk premium dynamics. We propose to test financial contagion using an econometric procedure where we first estimate the preference parameters of the consumption-based asset pricing model (C-CAPM) to measure the equilibrium risk premia in different countries and then we consider the difference between empirical and equilibrium risk premia to test cross-country disequilibrium episodes due to contagion. Disequilibrium in financial markets is modeled by the multivariate DCC-GARCH model including a deterministic crisis variable. Our approach allows to identify the disequilibria generated by increases in volatility that is not explained by fundamentals but is endogenous to financial markets and to evaluate the existence of contagion effects defined by exogenous shifts in cross-country return correlations during crisis periods. Our results show evidence of contagion from the U.S. to U.K., Japan, France, and Italy during the crisis started in 2007–08.

Testing the Conventional and Islamic Financial Market Contagion: Evidence from Wavelet Analysis

This study is a first attempt at testing the extent of contagion for conventional and Shari’ah-compliant stock indices. We examine the period surrounding the U.S. subprime crisis of 2007–9 and the Lehman Brothers collapse of 2008 to determine the relative extent of contagion. We find no clear evidence of contagion during the subprime crisis however, during the Lehman collapse most conventional indices showed contagion. Interestingly, the Shari’ah-compliant indices mostly do not show evidence of contagion. Collectively, our results have important implications for fund managers in terms of asset allocation risk and policymakers seeking an optimal policy response to crises.

Debt and Financial Market Contagion

We empirically investigate why financial crises spread from one country to another. For our analysis, we develop a new multiple-channel test of financial market contagion and construct indices of crisis-severity in equity markets in order to examine how the transmission of shocks across countries can be related to direct linkages between countries or to common characteristics. Based on network analysis with our proposed multiple-channel test for crises between 2007-2021, we find that the Great Recession is the most pervasive across countries, followed by the European sovereign debt crisis and the recent COVID pandemic, with the subprime mortgage crisis being the least pervasive. Our main finding is that similar public, private, and external debt characteristics are particularly helpful in explaining the transmission of financial shocks during crises. Fiscal deficits appear more important than current account deficits, while stage of economic development matters more than regional linkages, but none of these indicators is as important as debt.

Financial market contagion during the global financial crisis: evidence from the Moroccan stock market

In this paper, we aim at the study of the contagion of the global financial crisis (2007–2009) on Moroccan stock market. Our study focuses to examine whether contagion effects exist on Moroccan stock market, during the current financial crisis. Following Forbes and Rigobon (2002), we define contagion as a positive shift in the degree of comovement between asset returns. We use stock returns in MASI, CAC, DAX, FTSE and NASDAQ as representatives of Moroccan, French, German, British and US markets, respectively. To measure the degree of volatility comovement, time–varying correlation coefficients are estimated by flexible dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) multivariate GARCH model. We investigate empirical studies using the DCC–GARCH framework to test the contagion hypothesis from US and European markets to the Moroccan one.

Extremal Dependence and Contagion

A new test for financial market contagion based on changes in extremal dependence defined as co-kurtosis and co-volatility is developed to identify the propagation mechanism of shocks across international financial markets. The proposed approach captures changes in various aspects of the asset return relationships such as cross-market mean and skewness (co-kurtosis) as well as cross-market volatilities (co-volatility). Monte Carlo experiments show that the tests perform well except for when crisis periods are short in duration. Small crisis sample critical values are calculated for use in this case. In an empirical application involving the global financial crisis of 2008-09, the results show that significant contagion effects are widespread from the US banking sector to global equity markets and banking sectors through either the co-kurtosis or the co-volatility channels, reinforcing that higher order moments matter during crises.

Analysis of Contagion in Financial Markets Based on the Gradient Measurement of the Growth in Financial Markets and Conditional Copula Functions

We define contagion in financial markets as a significant increase in cross-market linkages after a shock to one country (or group of countries). Contagion occurs if cross-market co-movement increases significantly after the shock.The main goal of this paper is to analyse changes in dependence between a chosen world stock market and the constructed synthetic index. Subsequently the research hypothesis will be verified: dependence between the synthetic stock market index and other stock markets is increasing in periods of a rapid decrease in value of stock market indexes. Positive verification of this hypothesis means that there is a contagion in financial markets.

What Drives Contagion in Financial Markets? Liquidity Effects versus Information Spill-Over

The objective of this paper is to study how contagion works in financial markets by identifying the mechanisms which drive the spill-over of shocks from one market to other markets. To address this question we use open-ended property funds (OPFs) as they offer a unique institutional setting which allows separating between liquidity and information spill-over. We find that that liquidity risk captures the observed discounts very well when the danger of potential future impairments is low. Once the impending NAV impairments become very likely, also this component matters and attributes for a fraction of the total discount.

Globalization and Financial Market Contagion: Evidence from Financial Crisis and Natural Disasters

With financial globalization, investors can gain from diversification if returns from financial markets are stable and not correlated. However with volatility spillovers, increase in cross-market correlations exist as a real-effect and are not taken into account for asset allocation and portfolio composition. This chapter assesses financial contagion from two recent trends in the world economy: the global financial crisis and the 2011 Japanese natural disasters (tsunami, earthquake and nuclear crises).

Contagion and Optimization in Financial Markets

The US financial crisis of 2008 involved the interaction of banks and security houses. The issues of “contagion” and debt crises became subjects of concern. The aim of this paper is to suggest dynamic nonlinear models of the interactions and optimization in financial markets, which explain the dynamics of contagion and the vulnerability of the financial sector to shocks. I compare stochastic and deterministic models of “optimal” debt.

Credit Contagion in Financial Markets: A Network-Based Approach

We propose a network-based structural model of credit risk to demonstrate how idiosyncratic and systemic shocks propagate across the banking system and evaluate the costs. The banking system is built as a network of heterogeneous banks which are connected with one another. In such a system, single credit events propagate through the interbank market from debtors to creditors and across the system. The shock is imposed as an unexpected event. We demonstrate that while idiosyncratic shocks cannot substantially disturb the banking system, a systemic shock of even a moderate magnitude can be highly detrimental. Such shock includes a huge contagious potential. We demonstrate that the costs of the shock are largely determined by the extent of contagion and range from negligible to catastrophic. The results imply that a severe crisis has to be initiated by a systemic shock of at least moderate magnitude. Capital ratio and the bank size are two additional factors of the banking system stability. Finally, credit risk analysis is sensitive to the network topology and exhibits a profound nonlinear characteristic.

Call for Papers: Special Issue on Comovement and Contagion in Financial Markets

Call for Papers: Special Issue on Comovement and Contagion in Financial Markets

A New Test of Financial Contagion with Application to the US Banking Sector

A new test for financial market contagion based on increases in extremal dependence (co-kurtosis and co-volatility) is developed to identify the propagation mechanism of shocks across international financial markets. This new approach is applied to test for contagion in equity markets and banking sectors following the global financial crisis of 2008-2009. The results of the tests show significant contagion effects are widespread from the US banking sector to global equity markets and banking sectors. The extremal dependence tests capture more extreme co-movements than the asymmetric dependence tests in extreme events.

Special Issue on Comovement and Contagion in Financial Markets

Special Issue on Comovement and Contagion in Financial Markets