Volume Consumption Research Articles

Evaluation of the effect of the water-energy nexus on the performance of the water-energy supply system.

In this study, the water-energy nexus is investigated throughout coupling the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) and Low Emission Analysis Platform (LEAP) models under the climate change effects in the Marun basin, Iran. For this purpose, first, the climate change effects on water resources and consumption nodes are calculated under representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios from the fifth report of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Artificial neural network (ANN) is used to model river inflow and Cropwat model is used for agricultural water demand in future time (2015-2040). In the next step, water system is modeled in WEAP and energy system is modeled in LEAP. Then, three water-energy nexus scenarios include (1) calculating the actual hydropower generation capacity in LEAP model (W-E-N1), (2) water-energy nexus evaluation indexes in the WEAP model (W-E-N2), and (3) changes in the electricity consumption intensity in the LEAP model (W-E-N3) are modeled under RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate scenarios. The results of W-E-N1 scenario show that the actual hydropower generation capacity with water-energy nexus is reduced by 78%, 89%, and 91%, respectively, compared to no water-energy nexus under RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5 scenarios. The results of W-E-N2 show that the hydropower generation reliability index will be reduced by 19%, 31%, and 13%, respectively under RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5 compared no water-energy nexus. The results of W-E-N3 scenario show that the electricity consumption intensity will increase considering the electricity required for water transferring to demand sites. The results of the present study show that the water-energy nexus will lead to more accurate results and, as a result, more realistic planning for water and energy resources.

PBT/PMT assessment of active pharmaceutical ingredients.

The EU Commission proposal for a new EU pharmaceutical legislation considers PBT (persistence-bioaccumulation-toxicity) and PMT (persistence-mobility-toxicity) criteria for pharmaceuticals. Under current environmental risk assessment guidance, a PBT assessment is required regardless of the predicted environmental concentrations. However, consumption volumes of pharmaceuticals are contingent on marketing approval by EMA and are therefore predictable and their toxicological potency is established prior to any regulatory approval. Consumption volume and toxicological potency of pharmaceuticals span many orders of magnitude and are strong risk determinants. Routine data generation to evaluate persistence, mobility and bioaccumulation hazards as a means of pinpointing pharmaceuticals of increased environmental concern is therefore of questionable added value. We present options to derive action triggers for PBT and/or PMT screening using exposure predictions and toxicological potency data. Our simulations demonstrate that an exposure-based action limit can be established as a trigger for PMT assessment, while a combined trigger based on exposure levels and mammalian toxicity is proposed for PBT assessment. The proposed approach is conservatively designed to ensure that compounds with any potential risks a) of secondary poisoning (main concern for PBT substances) and b) to groundwater/drinking water (main concern for PMT substances) are targeted for full evaluation.

Assessing Cigarette Reduction Tax-Effectiveness in Low Tobacco Expenditure Contexts: An Application to Bolivia.

In this research we show that ambitious increases in tobacco tax rates can substantially reduce tobacco consumption, increase fiscal revenue, and provide net positive social benefits even in contexts of low consumption prevalence and intensity. Low nicotine intake still constitutes a grave disease risk factor, and the effectiveness of tax increases might be questioned if income effects are small. We adapt spatial variation of price methodologies to deal with low prevalence and intensity, censored data, and small samples using the Bolivian case as an illustration. We find an average price elasticity of demand of to . Using our estimates of elasticities, we develop a simulation to anticipate the effects of a 35% yearly increase of the Bolivian specific excise on tobacco starting in 2025. Our estimates show that by 2030, this reform could reduce the consumption of cigarettes by 52.6%, diminish the prevalence of smoking by 30.6%, and increase fiscal revenue by $123 million over six years. Moreover, we estimate that the abated direct medical costs of reduced consumption net of the deadweight loss associated with a tax increase would generate a net social gain of over $100 million in five years.

Вплив виробництва та вживання синтетичних наркотиків на навколишнє середовище

Extremely high volumes of drugs production and consumption have become a global problem of modern times, which determines negative impact on human health and the living environment. Aim: generalization of international best practices in monitoring the impact of production and consumption of synthetic drugs on the environment. Materials and Methods. the reports by the European Monitoring Centre for Drug and Narcotics Control, the National Police of Ukraine and the Security Service of Ukraine, UN, WHO, materials from scientific libraries PUBMED, Elsevier were studied. Results. According to the results of the latest monitoring in Ukraine, the dynamics of illegal drugs and psychoactive substances use per 10,000 population remains negative: from 14.7 in 2017 to 17.0 in 2022. However, under the conditions of martial law and due to active hostilities in some regions of Ukraine, as well as because of limited access to relevant resources in these territories, individual monitoring subjects do not have the opportunity to exercise their powers in full. Therefore, obtaining comprehensive information on the volume of production and use of illegal drugs is not considered possible today. At the same time, according to the National Police of Ukraine, 94 drug laboratories were closed down in 2021 alone; four international channels of entry of illegal drugs into Ukraine were exposed; tons of drug materials and psychotropic substances were seized from illegal circulation as a result of completed investigations in criminal proceedings. The experience of EU countries proves that monitoring the concentration of synthetic drugs in environmental objects allows solving the following issues: assessing the nature and scale of drug use over time; identifying basic trends in drug consumption; determination of measures to control and mitigate the consequences of the production and consumption of synthetic drugs, which will effectively protect the environment from dangerous biologically active substances. Conclusions. Although little is known about the actual extent of damage to the environment of illegal synthetic drugs, monitoring their presence in environmental objects is a relevant area of scientific research and should be a separate issue of public health policy. Keywords: drugs, environment.

Error Characteristic Analysis and Filtering Algorithm for GNSS Time-Series Data.

Under regional environmental conditions such as open-pit mines and construction sites, there are usually fixed GNSS measurement points. Around these fixed stations, there are also mobile GNSS measurement modules. These mobile measurement modules offer advantages such as low power consumption, low cost, and large data volume. However, due to their low accuracy, these modules can only provide approximate positions as monitoring data, such as for vehicle management in open-pit mines. To extract more information from the existing large volume of low-accuracy data, it is necessary to process these low-accuracy data. Under conditions of the same time and space in a small area, factors affecting measurement accuracy can be comprehensively considered. By analyzing the temporal GNSS data within the same spatiotemporal small region and understanding the variation patterns of measurement errors, a general equation for measurement error variation can be formulated. Using filtering methods, the data quality can be improved. Through the analysis of the experimental data in this study, it was found that the variation patterns of measurement data obtained by devices of the same accuracy during the same time period are generally consistent. After applying filtering methods, the measurement accuracy of each station improved by up to approximately 95.9%, with a minimum improvement of approximately 84.4%. Under the condition of a 95% confidence level, the reliability increased by up to approximately 73.2%, with a minimum improvement of approximately 58.2%. These experimental results fully demonstrate that under regional spatiotemporal conditions, the temporal data obtained by GNSS measurement devices with similar accuracy exhibit similar error distribution patterns. Applying the same filtering method can significantly improve the accuracy and reliability of measurement data.

Key Problems and Strategies for Greenhouse Gas Reduction in China's Wastewater Treatment Industry

The wastewater treatment industry is an energy-intensive industry and one of the main sources of high warming potential greenhouse gases （GHG） such as CH4 and N2O. The GHG reduction in this industry is an important part of achieving global climate goals. In 2019, there were 4 359 urban wastewater treatment plants in China, with a total wastewater treatment volume of 63.26 billion m3, ranking first in scale worldwide. From 2009 to 2019, the energy consumption, GHG emissions, and GHG emissions intensity of wastewater treatment in China increased by 161.78%, 193.55%, and 41.54%, respectively. Faced with the new situation, new tasks, and new requirements of the collaborative promotion of carbon reduction, pollution reduction, green expansion, and growth, water pollutant reduction needs to be coordinated with GHG reduction. To this end, the sources and trends of energy consumption and GHG emissions in the wastewater treatment industry were identified, and the situation and challenges to GHG reduction in this industry were analyzed. The results indicated that the wastewater treatment industry in China has been facing problems such as a lack of carbon emission-related standards, insufficient energy self-sufficient technology reserves, lack of coordination between wastewater treatment levels and carbon emissions control, and inadequate infrastructure and operation and maintenance management. Based on this, it is necessary to accelerate the top-level design of GHG reduction in the wastewater treatment industry； strengthen the research and development, verification, demonstration, and integrated application of disruptive technologies； expand the natural-based solution as a technological supplement； innovate refined management in the wastewater treatment industry； and ultimately promote the reconstruction of the wastewater treatment industry.

The carbon footprint and energy consumption of liver transplantation.

There is growing interest in the environmental impact of surgical procedures, yet more information is needed specifically regarding liver transplantation. This study aims to quantify the total greenhouse gas emissions, or carbon footprint, associated with adult whole-size liver transplantation from donors after brain death, including the relevant back-table graft preparation. The carbon footprint was calculated retrospectively using a bottom-up approach. This approach sums the volumes of energy consumption (kWh), volatile anesthetics (ml), solid waste (kg), and units of blood products transfused for each transplant. These consumption values were converted using validated conversion factors to the equivalent mass of carbon dioxide released into the environment (kg CO2e). A total of 147 patients with a mean age of 55 years (male, 78.9%) who underwent liver transplants between 2021 and 2022 were analyzed, resulting in 45.5 tons CO2e. The mean (SD) carbon footprint for each procedure was 309.8 (33.2) kg CO2e [95% CI: 304.4; 315.3]. Total energy power consumption was 96.5 MW, contributing 65.4% of greenhouse emissions (29.8 tons CO2e), while volatile anesthetics, solid waste, and blood product transfusions contributed 8.0% (3.64 tons CO2e), 5.9% (2.7 tons CO2e), and 20.6% (9.4 tons CO2e), respectively. The duration of surgery (t = 29.0; p < 0.001), transfused red blood cells (t = 13.1; p < 0.001), fresh frozen plasma (t = 11.1; p < 0.001), platelets (t = 8.9; p < 0.001), and the use of an extracorporeal pump machine (t = 3.6; p < 0.001) had the greatest effects on greenhouse gas emissions. Liver transplantation requires significant energy and is associated with considerable greenhouse gas emissions, particularly during longer procedures. Transplant clinicians, hospital administrators, policymakers, and patients should be aware of the environmental impact of liver transplantation and collaborate to adopt sustainable energy practices.

Influence law of air flow and water immersion duration on the risk of secondary oxidation spontaneous combustion of coal

To further elucidate the variations of secondary oxidation spontaneous combustion risk of lignite under different air flows and immersion time. Secondary oxidation experiments of short-term water-immersed coal and long-term water-immersed coal were conducted under four air flows. The results show that, the presence of a temperature inflection point during primary oxidation process, when coal temperature exceeds it, both the oxygen consumption rate and heat release intensity of long-term water-immersed coal are lower, furthermore, decrease in air flow leads to reduction in the temperature inflection point. The oxygen consumption rate and heat release intensity during the primary oxidation process exceed those observed during the subsequent secondary oxidation process. In the secondary oxidation process, long-term water-immersed coal exhibits higher rates of oxygen consumption and heat release intensity compared to short-term water-immersed coal. Additionally, the oxygen-consuming activation energy for oxygen consumption of long-term water-immersed coal is lower. The increase in air flow and water immersion time generally leads to the extreme value of the limit parameters, such as the local maximum of minimal thickness of residual coal and the lower limit oxygen fraction, the local minimum of the maximal air leakage intensity develops in the direction of increasing the risk of spontaneous combustion of coal in goaf.

The place of natural resources in the model of transition to a green economy in Azerbaijan

The article explores the role of natural resources in the model of transition to a green economy in Azerbaijan, emphasizing the importance of rational resource use and the implementation of new technologies. A key component of the green economy index is the “natural resources group” sub-index, which includes 10 sub-indicators: volumes of fresh water, water consumption, oil and gas production, land fund structure, fishing, and forest areas. The author also highlights methodological issues that arise in comparative studies, including the dependence of some indicators' absolute values on the size of the country and geographical location. To provide a more accurate assessment of the state of natural resources, the article uses the volume of renewable freshwater per capita, which better reflects the potential for transitioning to a green economy. In conclusion, the article proposes refined indicators for assessing the “natural resources group” based on more reliable data, such as the share of hydrocarbon revenues in GDP, allowing for a deeper understanding of the impact of natural resources on sustainable development in Azerbaijan.

Green supply chain management, green technology innovation and firms' energy consumption intensity

Green supply chain management, green technology innovation and firms' energy consumption intensity

Green credit policy and energy consumption intensity in China: Firm-level evidence and insights.

The transition to sustainable development has become a global priority, with energy transformation serving as a key component. In this context, green financial instruments play a crucial role in shaping corporate energy-saving behaviors and promoting sustainable development. This paper examines the impact and mechanism of China's first green credit policy (GCP) on energy consumption intensity (ECI) of manufacturing firms in China, using a difference-in-difference (DID) approach with micro-level data (2004-2009). We find that GCP significantly reduces enterprise ECI, primarily by promoting green technological innovation and capital renewal. We also learn that the effect of GCP varies with firm and industry characteristics, such as financial dependence, size, ownership, capital intensity, and industrial chain position. Moreover, the outcomes suggest that the effect of GCP is stronger in regions with higher degrees of financial development and marketization. This study contributes to the literature on green finance, environmental regulation, and energy efficiency by providing novel evidence on how GCP influences ECI from a micro perspective.

The unit size effect on chocolate consumption: How to make consumers eat less? (The unit size effect on chocolate consumption).

Understanding the impact of environmental stimuli, such as nudges, on consumption behavior is crucial for developing effective dietary interventions. This study investigates the unit size effect, a behaviourally-oriented nudge, on chocolate consumption. In particular, it examines how different unit sizes and the presence or absence of packaging influence the quantity of chocolate consumed and the perceived energy intake in grams and calories. The research contributes to the theoretical framework of nudge theory, particularly the concept of unit bias, which suggests that larger units lead to higher consumption volumes. The novelty of this paper lies in its exploration of the combined effects of unit size and packaging and healthy lifestyle on consumption behavior, a relatively under-researched area. The methodology involved an experiment with four focus groups, differentiated by health-consciousness, who were provided with chocolate in varying unit sizes and packaging conditions. The data from the experiments were subjected to a three-way repeated measures ANOVA (RM-ANOVA) model. The results indicated that larger unit sizes significantly increase consumption compared to smaller units, regardless of packaging. This demonstrates that unit size has a greater impact on consumption than packaging, reinforcing the power of unit bias. The health-conscious participants consumed a markedly lower quantity of packed chocolates and exhibited a tendency to significantly overestimate the amount consumed, suggesting that those who are health-conscious may be more conscious of their diet. The findings support the effectiveness of behaviourally-oriented nudge marketing tools in influencing consumption behavior without altering consumer knowledge or emotions.

АНАЛИЗ ОБЪЕМА ПОТРЕБЛЕНИЯ ЛЕКАРСТВЕННЫХ ПРЕПАРАТОВ ПРИ ЛЕЧЕНИИ ЭПИЛЕПСИИ В СТАЦИОНАРЕ

The article presents the results of the study of the volume of consumption of medicinal drugs for the treatment of patients diagnosed with epilepsy. As a result of retrospective processing of case histories (continuous sampling for 2021-2023) obtained in the inpatient department of the Clinic of Nervous Diseases named after A.Y. Khlebnikov of Sechenov University, the dynamics of drugs consumption from 2021 to 2023 was analyzed. The range of antiepileptic drugs in the clinic in 2022-2023 compared to 2021 was supplemented with such names as: topiramate, oxcarbazepine. Increased consumption of levetiracetam in 2023 compared to 2021 by 4 times. Based on the data obtained, it is obvious that there are no 3rd generation antiepileptic drugs in the assortment. Among other pharmacotherapeutic groups the leading position is occupied by B vitamins, the volume of consumption of these drugs in 2023 amounted to 496.86 NDDD/100 bed days. In addition, a decrease in the consumption of myorelaxants should be noted. The results obtained can be the basis for the development of recommendations to optimize the use of drugs and improve the quality of drug care for patients with epilepsy at the inpatient level.

Применение методов форсайт-анализа для исследования продовольственного обеспечения

This article discusses the possibilities of using foresight analysis methods in relation to the issue of food supply. Taking into account the fact that food markets are a rather complex object of study, and food supply depends not only on quantitative (volume of consumption, total calorie intake), but also qualitative parameters (quality of nutrition, structure and macronutrient composition of the food basket, provision of micronutrients, etc.), using only quantitative, economic and statistical methods for analysis is inappropriate. The best effect can be achieved by foresight techniques that take into account non-trivial, deep connections and allow a more comprehensive look at the phenomenon under consideration. Taking into account the above, the authors systematized modern approaches to foresight analysis, considered the most effective methods, such as identifying weak signals and wild card events, and also identified the features of using these methodological approaches for analyzing food markets, which are subject to a wide range of difficult to predict climatic and technogenic factors, as well as factors of geopolitical and macroeconomic nature. An emphasis on identifying implicit connections, and also predicting key reference points that can have a decisive impact on the development of food markets, can help improve economic resilience in the face of emerging global food crises. Thus, the study allows us to conclude that the use of modern foresight analysis methods for studying food supply issues is highly relevant. Identification of weak signals and wild card events can allow a more rational and realistic approach to constructing scenarios for the development of food industry sectors, as well as early identification of potential threats that could destabilize the situation and have a significant negative impact on the level of food supply, both at the level of individual countries and in the world at large.

Morphological features of white adipose tissue in rats with different levels of energy metabolism in visceral obesity

Histomorphological changes of visceral white adipose tissue in obesity as a function of the level of energy metabolism in the body have not been sufficiently studied. The aim of this study was to investigate and compare the structural changes of visceral white adipose tissue in rats with different metabolic levels and severe visceral obesity. The study was carried out on male Wistar rats aged 3 months at the start of the experiment. Control animals received standard diet. Experimental rats were fed a high calorie diet for 12 weeks. At the end of the experiment, rats from both the control and experimental groups were divided into low and high level of energy metabolism depending on the intensity of total oxygen consumption. Histological preparations of visceral white adipose tissue were prepared according to the standard method. Histomorphometry was performed on digital images using the “Image J 1.34p” computer program. Biochemical methods were used to determine the concentration of triglycerides, lipids and cholesterol in blood serum. The method of multifrequency bioimpedance was used to assess the biophysical properties of visceral white adipose tissue. The data obtained were processed by methods of variational statistics using one-way analysis of variance. It was shown that long-term use of a high-calorie diet led to the development of visceral obesity, which was manifested by a significant increase in the weight of visceral fat and an increase in the concentration of indicators of lipid metabolism in blood serum. It was found that a high-calorie diet altered the morphological structure of the rat’s visceral white adipose tissue, leading to adipocyte hypertrophy, reduced blood volume and increased the amount of connective tissue in it. The bioelectrical properties of the visceral white adipose tissue changed, as evidenced by an increase in its electrical impedance and a decrease in its frequency dispersion coefficient. The intensity of structural, biochemical and biophysical changes in the visceral white adipose tissue was more pronounced in rats with low level of energy metabolism and depended on the degree of obesity. The results obtained are important for practical medicine in the development of new effective methods for the prevention and treatment of obesity in patients according to level of energy metabolism.

Legal drug use patterns of adolescents in northern Hungary

In a quantitative cross-sectional study, the authors investigated the health risk behaviour of secondary school students in northern Hungary, including the consumption of legal psychoactive substances (nicotine, alcohol, caffeine). In addition to assessing substance use habits, the study should also assess mental health characteristics and examine the correlates of substance use. A total of 1251 respondents (n= 1251) took part in the survey (mean age: 16.4 years; SD: 1.6), with 59.1% of the sample being boys. The questionnaire included questions on socio-demographic data, nicotine and alcohol consumption, frequency of consumption, motivation for alcohol consumption and mental health characteristics. The results indicate that the intensity of smoking and alcohol consumption is highest in the 16-17 years old age group, with a higher prevalence of smoking among girls and alcohol consumption among boys. For smoking, lower parental education and poorer mental health are the main risk factors, and for alcohol consumption, lower parental education, a smaller settlement, poorer living conditions and poorer mental health are the main risk factors.

18F-FDG metabolic abnormalities precede perfusion and atrophic changes in diagnosis of early frontotemporal dementia: study from a tertiary care university hospital.

Diagnosis of early onset dementia is critical for initiating management. Although structural MRI is an established procedure for dementia evaluation, early cases may be missed. Neurodegenerative diseases lead to reductions in glucose consumption and grey matter volume loss. Our primary aim was to establish whether metabolic changes precede perfusion abnormalities in early cases of dementia especially, frontotemporal dementia (FTD). Secondly to study if cerebral atrophy using Pasquier visual rating scales can be used reliably to correlate with hypometabolism in this group of patients. A total of 56 patients (M:F = 39:17) with memory loss as per the DSM-5 diagnostic criteria were clinically and neurologically examined and referred for 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) PET brain imaging. A few patients who had a prior (recent, <1 week) MR brain underwent brain 18F-FDG PET-CT, and all others were considered for simultaneous 18F-FDG PETMR imaging of brain. T2-weighted images were used to report Pasquier rating scales in all our patients as per recommendation. Cognitive assessments were analysed along with neuroimaging findings. Highest diagnostic performance was obtained with 18F-FDG PET for identifying early FTD in our series of patients. Sensitivity, specificity and accuracy of FDG and arterial spin labeling (ASL) using simultaneous PETMR were found to be 96.34%/90.1%/89 : 53.57%/62.12%/78, respectively. Cerebral atrophy rated using Pasquier visual scales showed the lowest diagnostic performance. Our study showed that the earliest phase of cognitive decline was found to be associated with specific patterns of hypometabolism, even in the absence of atrophy, which are currently considered diagnostic biomarkers. Metabolic derangements precede perfusion changes and cerebral atrophy in the setting of early dementia. Simultaneous FDG PETMR is being recommended as the investigation of choice for the evaluation of early FTD. This pilot study shows that FDG PET outperforms cognitive assessments and anatomical imaging modalities in early dementia evaluation. Although ASL can detect perfusion deficits in dementia, compared with FDG PET, its sensitivity and specificity for discerning early onset dementia from controls remain inferior to FDG PET. Pasquier scales, although easy to implement, cannot replace FDG PET metabolic findings, which start very early in the neuronal disease process.

Total Water Consumption of Alfalfa as a Function of Active Soil Surface and Bioclimatic Coefficients

The paper highlights the significant impact of irrigation on crop yields, emphasizing that in the challenging climatic conditions of the dry-steppe Trans-Volga region, it is impossible to obtain a consistently high alfalfa yield without irrigation. Since irrigation presents both substantial benefits and potential drawbacks, it requires a highly skilled approach to managing irrigated lands and water resources. To estimate the total water consumption of alfalfa in the dry-steppe Trans-Volga region, it is proposed to use bioclimatic coefficients and soil surface activity indicators. (Research purpose) The study aims to determine the total water consumption of alfalfa by using bioclimatic coefficients and active soil surface values to improve the efficiency of irrigation regimes. (Materials and methods) The primary input factors influencing the total water consumption volume were analyzed. Changes in total water consumption during specific phases of alfalfa development were assessed based on evapotranspiration and the relative reserves of productive moisture, using experimental data on the crop's water consumption. (Results and discussion) The empirical coefficients representing the active surface state of alfalfa crops were determined based on the sum of average daily temperatures, calculated using Budyko-Zubenko method for estimating evaporation from the water surface. It was found that the coefficients of active surface state change significantly during plant development, increasing from 0.5 during the growth-branching period to 0.78 during branching-budding and reaching 0.99-1.0 during the budding-flowering period. (Conclusions) Curvilinear relationships between the ratio of total water consumption to evaporation and the relative reserves of productive moisture during different phases of alfalfa growth and development were experimentally established. Empirical coefficients were derived for calculating total water consumption during different periods of alfalfa vegetation grown on dark chestnut soils in the dry steppe Trans-Volga region.

The evolution, characteristics, and driving forces of the rural-urban HCEs in China: based on the EIO-SDA model

Households' carbon emissions (HCEs) plays an important role in the overall carbon emission (CE) reduction. This study conducts a comparative analysis of the trends and characteristics of the rural and urban HCEs in China in 1997–2020, by applying the environmental input-output (EIO) model. Then, a three-stage SDA model is applied to decompose the driving forces of the rural and urban HCEs evolution into population effect, per capita HCEs effect, expenditure effect, CE intensity effect, energy structure effect, and energy consumption intensity effect. It is obtained that the rural HCEs increases before 2015 and then decreases, but its per capita HCEs has always shown an upward trend. The urban HCEs has been increasing, but its per capita HCEs starts to decrease after 2015. Indirect HCEs accounts for over 80% of both the rural and urban HCEs, and Residence, Food and Tobacco, Transportation and Communication are the three biggest contributing sectors. To reveal the driving forces of the rural and urban HCEs evolution, this study conducts phase decomposition analysis with 2015 as a turning point. For rural HCEs, in 1997–2015, rural HCEs increased due to the dominant expenditure effect; from 2015 to 2020, the driving force reversed, leading to a decline in rural HCEs. For urban HCEs, the positive population and expenditure effects have always been larger than the negative energy structure and energy consumption intensity effects, resulting growth in urban HCEs. For urban per capita HCEs, in 1997–2015, the positive expenditure effect is greater than the negative CE intensity effect, leading to an increase in urban per capita HCEs, and a positive urban per capita HCEs effect. In 2015–2020, the driving force reversed, leading to a decline in urban per capita HCEs. Based on above results, countermeasures to promote rural and urban HCEs reduction are discussed.

Understanding Emission Trends, Regional Distribution Differences, and Synergistic Emission Effects in the Transportation Sector in Terms of Social Factors and Energy Consumption

China’s transportation sector plays a significant role in reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) and air pollution. Previous studies have predominantly utilized scenario analysis to forecast emissions for the next 30 to 50 years based on coefficients from a base year. To elucidate the current state of gas emissions in the transportation sector, this study employed panel data for 10 types of gas emissions from 2001 to 2020, analyzing their emission characteristics, tendencies, and synergistic effects. Utilizing the Kaya equation and the logarithmic mean division index (LMDI) decomposition method, we developed a model of pollutant emissions that considers the synergistic effects, pollution emission intensity, energy mix, energy consumption intensity, and population. The results show that all pollutants in the transportation sector decreased except for NH3 and CO2. There was a synergistic effect between air pollutants and CO2 emissions, but the reduction was not significant. From 2013 to 2020, the transportation sector shifted from a high emission intensity with low synergy to a low emission intensity with high synergy. The results indicate that off-road mobile vehicles, on-road diesel vehicles, and motorcycles became the main source of emissions from transportation in certain provinces, and a key area requiring attention in policy development. Gasoline consumption was identified as the primary contributor to the significant increase in synergistic emission variability in the transportation sector. These results provide policymakers with practical ways to optimize emission reduction pathways.