This study investigates the influence of perceived value and perceived risk on consumer intentions to purchase counterfeit luxury goods, drawing upon an integrated theoretical framework encompassing perceived value theory, risk perception theory, and consumer behavior models. Through a quantitative research design involving a structured survey and Structural Equation Modeling (SEM), the study examines the relationships among perceived value dimensions (functional, emotional, social, economic), perceived risk factors (financial, social, performance), consumer attitudes, and purchase intentions. The findings reveal that perceived value positively influences purchase intentions, with consumer attitudes acting as a critical mediating mechanism. Conversely, perceived risk negatively impacts purchase intentions, with this relationship also mediated by consumer attitudes. Furthermore, Bayesian Network analysis uncovers the indirect pathways through which perceived risk shapes purchase intentions via its influence on consumer attitudes. By integrating these theoretical frameworks and employing advanced analytical techniques, this study contributes to a comprehensive understanding of the complex decision-making processes underlying counterfeit luxury goods consumption. The findings provide valuable insights for policymakers, luxury brand managers, and consumer protection agencies in devising targeted strategies to address consumer perceptions of value and risk, ultimately mitigating the proliferation of counterfeit luxury goods.