Consumer Price Index Inflation Research Articles

Factors Influencing Inflation: Insights from the Nepalese Economy

Inflation is a persistent issue in developing nations such as Nepal, resulting in serious economic and social consequences. This article examines the macroeconomic determinants of inflation in Nepal, considering the variables as government expenditure, exchange rate remittances, real GDP, and the consumer price index of India. Using the time series data from 1975 to 2023. It employs the Engel-Granger two-step cointegration test to examine the short- and long-term causal connections between Nepal's consumer price index (inflation) and all of these variables. The augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test confirms that the variables are stationary at first difference, suggesting they possess an integrated order of I. The Engel-Granger test established that there is co-integration among the variables. Additionally, the error correction term (ECT) was found to be statistically significant, with a negative coefficient. The causal association between the selected dependent and explanatory variables in Nepal is both significant and persistent. The empirical findings suggest that India's inflation highly affects inflation in Nepal. Furthermore, the enduring effects of broad money supply and government expenditure are also substantial factors. The results indicate an inverse relationship between inflation and real GDP in Nepal, whereas remittances have no significant impact on consumer prices in the nation. So, it is vital to control inflation to be able to deal with poverty and economic growth. Policies are needed to keep the inflation target range around the optimum inflation rate to accelerate the pace of economic growth and ensure that the adverse effect inflation has on economic growth is minimized.

Forecasting CPI inflation under economic policy and geopolitical uncertainties

Forecasting consumer price index (CPI) inflation is of paramount importance for both academics and policymakers at central banks. This study introduces the filtered ensemble wavelet neural network (FEWNet) to forecast CPI inflation, tested in BRIC countries. FEWNet decomposes inflation data into high- and low-frequency components using wavelet transforms, and incorporates additional economic factors, such as economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk, to enhance forecast accuracy. These wavelet-transformed series and filtered exogenous variables are input into downstream autoregressive neural networks, producing the final ensemble forecast. Theoretically, we demonstrate that FEWNet reduces empirical risk compared to fully connected autoregressive neural networks. Empirically, FEWNet outperforms other forecasting methods and effectively estimates prediction uncertainty, due to its ability to capture non-linearities and long-range dependencies through its adaptable architecture. Consequently, FEWNet emerges as a valuable tool for central banks to manage inflation and enhance monetary policy decisions.

Effects of Transmission Mechanism of Monetary Policy Channels on Economic Growth in Ethiopia: Cointegration and Causality Analysis Approach

The study aimed at investigating and analyzing factors those effects of transmission mechanism of monetary policy channels on economic growth in Ethiopia using a 36 years’ time series data. To this end, variables such as economic growth (dependent variable), and other regress variables such as real lending rate, real effective exchange rate, credit for private sector, consumer price index, trade of opens, gross capital formation, and money supply are considered. An empirical model linking the real GDP to its theoretical effects is then specified. This study had employed the co-integration and vector error correction model (VECM) analysis with impulse response and variance decomposition analysis to provide robust long run effects and short run dynamic effects on the real GDP. All variables under consideration are integrated of order one I (1) and also co-integrated. Vector Error Correction Model/VECM/ results show that real GDP was positively and significantly affected by the real effective exchange rate, money supply, gross capital formation (investment), credit for private sector, trade of openness over a period of long-run; while real leading interest rate and consumer price index (inflation) have significant negative effect. The estimate of the speed of adjustment coefficient found in this study indicates that about a 31 percent of the variation in the real GDP from its equilibrium level is corrected within a year. The study suggests that lowering the lending interest rate can encourage more private investment because it will encourage private investors to borrow more, which will increase investment in Ethiopia. Since investment is one of the factors that determine the gross domestic product, this will result in an increase in the GDP.

Comparative analysis of tobacco industry cigarette marketing expenditures in the United States, 2009–2018

Anti-tobacco campaigns face challenges as tobacco marketing consistently outpaces funding for public health presentation initiatives. In 2017, tobacco companies spent around $1 million every hour to promote cigarettes and smokeless tobacco in the US. That same year, they were also mandated to sponsor and disseminate Federal court ordered Corrective Statements (CSs) advertisements in outlets such as newspapers and major television networks. Thus, it is crucial to monitor the marketing activities of the tobacco industry to bolster effective tobacco control efforts. Cigarettes marketing expenditures were obtained from the Federal Trade Commission Cigarettes reports and adjusted for inflation using the Consumer Price Index Inflation Calculator. Temporal trends during 2009–2018 period were assessed using Joinpoint regression at (p < 0.05). The costs of publishing the CSs in print were estimated based on the cost of a full-page advertisement with similar specifications. Between 2009 and 2018, the total adjusted cigarette marketing expenditures exhibited no significant changes (AAPC = −1.5). Spending on print advertisements decreased from 0.43% in 2009 to 0.1% in 2018. Magazine cigarette marketing expenditures underwent a relative percentage decline of 80% (AAPC = −13.5;p < 0.05). In 2018, the tobacco industry allocated approximately $8.5 million for print advertisements to promote cigarettes. We estimated that it cost $5.5 million to disseminate the CSs in print the same year, constituting 0.06% of the overall expenditure on cigarette marketing and promotion. Several traditional cigarettes advertising categories have seen reduced funding over the past decade. Nevertheless, the total marketing expenditure remained unaffected. In response to marketing regulations, tobacco companies shifted their funds to less regulated channels. In 2018, a significant portion of promotional expenditures were directed toward various price discounts, which could potentially expose vulnerable children and youths to cigarette marketing. Lastly, the impact of CSs was weakened by delayed implementation and shift in consumer attention from traditional media to other digital channels.

Changes in Inflation Dynamics in Korea: Global Factor, Country Factor and Their Propagation*

AbstractThis study examines the influence of global and country factors on inflation movements in Korea using a multi‐level factor model. Our results indicate that country factors showed a more pronounced alignment with inflation in Korea up to the mid‐2000s, having particularly strong impacts around the Asian financial crisis. Beyond the mid‐2000s, global factors played a more influential role in shaping inflation. This increased influence of global factors on inflation became particularly apparent during the notable inflationary surge following the COVID‐19 pandemic. We construct structural models to identify global and country shocks and find that the effect of global shocks persists for a longer period, whereas the immediate impact of country shocks is more pronounced. Global shocks have a greater influence on producer price index and import price index inflation compared to consumer price index (CPI) or core CPI inflation. We further find that energy prices closely correlate with global factors, while exchange rates are highly correlated with country factors in Korea.

Trends of Medicare Reimbursement Rates for Gender-Affirming Surgery Procedures.

Awareness of Medicare reimbursement is important for gender-affirming surgeons who treat transgender patients with Medicare. In 2014, Medicare began to provide coverage for medically necessary transition-related surgery. The purpose of this study was to analyze trends in Medicare reimbursement rates for gender-affirming surgery procedures from 2014 to 2022. The Medicare Physician Fee Schedule Look-Up Tool provided by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services was used, and the Current Procedural Terminology codes for 43 gender-affirming surgery services were obtained. Monetary units, conversion factors, relative value units (RVUs) for work, facility, and malpractice costs for 30 transmasculine and 13 transfeminine procedures were analyzed. Descriptive statistics were performed to account for inflation and to determine the relative differences between 2014 and 2022. For all gender-affirming surgery procedures covered by Medicare, the average relative difference of monetary units decreased by 2.99% between 2014 and 2022. On average, there was a 3.97% decrease of work-based RVU charges for transmasculine procedures and a 1.73% decrease of work-based RVU charges for transfeminine procedures. After adjusting for inflation, the average relative difference of monetary units for all gender-affirming surgery procedures decreased by 23.42% between 2014 and 2022. Reimbursement rates for gender-affirming surgery procedures covered under Medicare have decreased over the observed period, and trends in reimbursement rates have not kept up with consumer price index inflation. Gender-affirming surgeons should be conscious of these changes in reimbursement rates and advocate for fairer compensation to promote medical care among an underserved population.

Investor attention and consumer price index inflation rate: Evidence from the United States

Explaining and forecasting inflation are important and challenging tasks because inflation is one focus of macroeconomics. This paper introduces novel investor attention to the field of inflation for the first time. Specifically, the Granger causality test, vector autoregression (VAR) model, certain linear models, and several statistical indicators are adopted to illustrate the roles of investor attention in explaining and forecasting inflation. The empirical results can be summarized as follows. First, investor attention is the Granger cause of the inflation rate and has a negative impact on inflation. Second, predictive models that incorporate investor attention can significantly outperform the commonly used benchmark models in inflation forecasting for both short and long horizons. Third, the robustness checks show that updating investor attention or the model specification does not change the conclusion of the crucial role of investor attention in explaining and forecasting inflation. Finally, this paper proves that investor attention influences inflation through inflation expectations. In summary, this paper demonstrates the importance of investor attention for macroeconomics, as investor attention affects inflation.

Asymmetric Effects of World Energy Prices on Inflation in Indonesia

This study analyzes the asymmetric effect of changes in world energy prices, which include crude oil, natural gas, and coal prices, and the exchange rate on consumer price index (CPI) inflation in Indonesia. The models used in the analysis are quantile regression and dynamic ordinary least squares. The period studied is monthly in the period 2001M01 - 2022M12. The study results show that world crude oil prices have asymmetrically positive effects on CPI inflation when world oil prices increase and decrease. The fall in the price of crude oil has a more significant effect than the increase. The asymmetric impact of world crude oil prices on CPI inflation was also found between lower and middle quantiles. However, the short-run impact of rising crude oil prices is only found in the 7th quartile. So, the long-run effect is more dominant than the short-run effect. The role of the fuel subsidy policy, which the government manages, is beneficial in reducing inflationary fluctuations originating from fluctuations in world crude oil prices. Efforts to develop oil refineries in Indonesia that need to be done to reduce imports of crude oil and fuel are expected to be able to reduce the impact of world oil price fluctuations on domestic inflation in the future.

Trends of cancer drug cost increases and impact of generic and biosimilar drug launches.

19 Background: Drug cost increases are key contributors to cancer care spending in the US. These increases often outpace consumer price index (CPI) inflation, and impact patient access, outcomes, and cost sharing. We analyzed pricing trends and impacts of lower cost generic or biosimilar alternative (LCA) drug launches for key cancer drugs. Methods: Using Medicare Part B drug (Part B) administration &amp; Part D drug (Part D) dispense data for 15 practices in The US Oncology Network, we obtained the unit cost to Medicare for top 30 drugs by total spend over a 6-year period (July 2016 – June 2022). Evaluating cost change patterns in Part B and Part D, we compared trends before and after LCA launches. Results: Over a 6-year period, mean drug costs increased by 12.3% (range: -41.8% to 39%) for Part B and 46.2% (range: -67.5% to 278.2%) for Part D. The largest increases were for Protein-bound Paclitaxel (Part B) (39%) and Ibrutinib (Part D) (278.2%). Many increases exceeded CPI inflation (23.2%) over the same period. Part B/Part D drugs with LCA launches had decreases of -11%/-39%. Non-LCA Part B/Part D drugs increased 21%/ 67%. Prior to LCA launches, Part B/Part D LCA drugs had a mean increase of 22%. After LCA launches, a mean decrease of 36% was observed. Conclusions: Part D drugs have 3.75 times higher increases versus Part B and often outpace CPI inflation. LCAs for branded drugs bend cost increase trends. The impacts of evergreening drug patents and potential shifting of drug coverage from Part B to Part D on costs are ripe for evaluation. The inflation-based rebate and Part D coverage changes in the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) need to be monitored for its impact on cancer drug cost trends, access, affordability, and financial toxicity for patients. [Table: see text]

Impact of Macroeconomic Determinants on Economic Growth in India: An Empirical Assessment

The impact of macroeconomic determinants on Indian economic growth measured by GVA is the foundation of this study. There are some factors that affect foreign direct investments. It consists of the country's political stability, trade openness, inflation rate, economic stability, investment policies, rules and regulations imposed on exchange rates, and foreign reserves. Additionally, foreign direct investments both increase trade and provide financial aid. Foreign direct investments have helped the Indian economy's balance of payment issues. This paper's main goal is to examine how macroeconomic factors affect the expansion of the Indian economy. FDI Inflows (FDI), Consumer Price Index (Inflation Rate), Foreign Exchange Rate with US$, and Gross Value Added (GVA) are used as the study's variables. The influence of the study’s variable on the Indian economy is examined using simple regression and Pearson's correlation approaches. The study is based on secondary data gathered from 2005 to 2020 via the World Bank website and RBI DBIE database. According to the empirical findings, there is a strong correlation between GVA and Exchange Rate with US$ and CPI, whereas the moderate correlation between FDI and GVA exists which is important for the expansion of the Indian economy.

MALAYSIAN PROPERTY MARKET, THE STOCK MARKET AND MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES

This study examined the interactions and linkages between the property market, stock market, and macroeconomic variables. The stock market, in the long run, has a significant impact on property. Changes in house prices and stock markets have wealth and credit-price effects spilled over to economic growth. Both property and equity markets have a close dependency on income, inflation and monetary policy. The inference and dynamic relationship within asset markets have the capacity to explain the boom and bust cycles. The great potential lies with property and stock market interaction mechanisms to reflect economic conditions and as a source to enrich the present macroeconomic indicators. The Malaysian equity market was observed to be significantly co-integrated with the disaggregated real estate market (state level). The real estate market was mainly found to have a positive relationship with the stock market, GDP per capita (income) and consumer price index (CPI). However, real estate always had a negative relationship with interest rates. While real estate had a positive relationship with real GDP per capita in the long run, the relationship was not significant. This insignificance relationship covers all states and property types. The income coefficients were low and most of non-causality in the short run. This suggests a need for cautious from house price overheating. Price upsurge beyond the reach of the public may get caught with a sudden decline of the people’s affordability level. The impact of property price increase was higher than CPI (inflation). The inflation positive response on property is unusual as it normally follows the interest rate being negative. The shortage of affordable houses has pushed up prices. Inflation coefficients were mainly significant and much higher compared to stock and income coefficients. In short term dynamic linkages, bidirectional causality was detected between lending rates and the overall property market. This suggests a high temporal impact of monetary policy on the property market at the national level.

Real exchange rate misalignment and business cycle fluctuations in the Asia‐Pacific

AbstractReal exchange rate (RER) misalignment, which is the deviation between the actual real exchange rate from its equilibrium, occurs frequently among developing countries. Studies have shown that RER misalignment may have negative economic implications, such as a decline in economic growth, exports, and export diversification and an increased risk of currency crises and political instability. Using quarterly data for 22 sample countries from 1990 to 2018, this paper investigates the impact of RER misalignment on business cycles in the Asia‐Pacific by employing a panel vector autoregression involving consumer price index (CPI) inflation, output gap, short‐term interest rates, and RER misalignment. We find that RER overvaluation may reduce CPI inflation and short‐term interest rates. We also find that the Asia‐Pacific region is highly heterogeneous in that the output gaps of some countries, particularly from the Southeast Asian region, are more susceptible to RER misalignment shocks.

Factors Determining the Financial Performance of Public Sector Banks in India

Now, an attempt is made in this paper to examine the determinants of profitability in Indian public sector banks during the period 2010-11 to 2021-22. For this purpose, a sample of 12 public sector banks listed in NSE &amp; BSE has been taken. Multiple Linear Regression Analysis has been used to investigate the impact of independent variables such as a bank’s asset size (Size), capital adequacy ratio (CAR), cost to income (CTI), net non-performing assets (NPA), credit risk (CrR), credit deposit ratio (CDR),economic growth (GDP) and consumer price index (CPI) inflation on key bank profitability indicators, i.e., return on assets (ROA), return on equity (ROE) and net interest margin (NIM)as dependent variables, separately.&#x0D; The main findings show that bank asset size, cost to income, net non-performing assets, credit deposit ratio, and inflation are negatively related to ROA, ROE, and NIM. Credit risk and economic growth (GDP) have a positive impact on ROA, ROE, and NIM. While the capital adequacy ratio hurt ROA and NIM except for ROE. Even though overall explanatory and macroeconomic factors have a significant 5 percent effect on ROE and NIM as denoted by F-statistics value. Moreover, the banking sector has benefited weakly significantly from both economic growth and the inflationary environment. It is also suggested that if banks concentrate on these variables, they would be able to generate better profitability in the present globalized era. These findings are of value to both academicians and policymakers.

106 Reimbursement Trends in Neuroendovascular Interventions 2013-2022

INTRODUCTION: Neuroendovascular surgeries are increasingly important, particularly with the advent of thrombectomy as the gold standard in the management of large vessel stroke. METHODS: The Physician Fee Schedule Look-Up Tool was queried from 2013 to 2019 for all primary Current Procedural Terminology (CPT) codes identified by the American Medical Association as pertaining to endovascular procedures of the nervous system (61623, 61624, 61630, 61635, 61626, 61645, and 61650). The facility prices were averaged for each procedure and subsequently adjusted for inflation using the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Consumer Price Index Inflation Calculator as adjusted to January of 2022. Statistical analyses, including data aggregation, exploratory analysis, and propensity adjustment, were performed using R, version 4.0.1 (The R Foundation, Vienna, Austria). The two-sided Mann-Kendall trend test, a non-parametric statistical test that assesses for monotonic trends in either an upward or downward trend, was utilized to assess for trends over time. Within each year analyzed, a Chi-squared test for trend in proportions was used. A significance level of 0.05 was used. RESULTS: Decreases in reimbursement were noted for all neuroendovascular procedures. This trend was statistically significant for temporary balloon occlusion, CPT61623 (2013:$677.04; 2022:586.96; p: 0.01), central nervous system transcatheter permanent occlusion or embolization, CPT61624 (2013:$1349.61; 2022:$1175.02; p: 0.02), non-central nervous system transcatheter permanent occlusion or embolization, CPT61626 (2013:$1040.86; 2019:$912.29; p: 0.002), stent placement, CPT61635 (2013:$1697.18; 2022:$1490.68; p: 0.05), and when viewed as aggregate procedures (2013:$1265.01; 2022:$1000.45; p &lt; 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: Inflation-adjusted reimbursement is decreasing for certain neuroendovascular procedures over time and for all neuroendovascular procedures when viewed as an aggregate group. This suggests a need for reevaluation of the market value and advocacy for neuroendovascular providers and procedures in the era of value/quality-based care.

Macroeconomic effects of demand and supply shocks in the global oil price on the Vietnamese economy

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to examine the effects of several structural shocks in oil prices on the Vietnamese economy and answer three key research questions: Is there a relationship between oil price shocks and macroeconomic indicators in Vietnam? How do different types of oil price impulses affect Vietnamese inflation and economic performance? To what extent do structural shocks in oil prices explain variations in Vietnam’s macroeconomic indicators?Design/methodology/approachLower triangular Cholesky decomposition is performed on a short-term impact matrix in a two-block structural vector autoregressive model. The data set is defined monthly, from January 2000 to December 2021. The contributions of structural shocks in oil prices to the domestic variances are analysed using variance decomposition methods. In this study, both forecast error variance decomposition and historical decomposition are used.FindingsThe consequences of oil price fluctuations on Vietnamese output and inflation depend on different sources of oil price shocks. In comparison, oil supply shocks have an insignificant effect on both domestic industrial output and consumer price index inflation; however, positive shocks in aggregate and precautionary oil demands increase these domestic indicators substantially and sustainably. An analysis of variance decompositions reveals that supply-side oil shocks have very limited explanatory power for variations in domestic variables. Nevertheless, the contributions of unanticipated demand-side booms to domestic variations in the past and projected forecasts are considerable.Research limitations/implicationsThe findings from this research uncover potential risks for Vietnam’s economic prospects if the consequences of oil price shocks are not managed effectively.Originality/valueGiven the lack of economic sensitivity to supply-side oil shocks and the strong response to shifts in oil demands, greater pressure on the domestic economy is likely when Vietnam increases its dependence on oil imports.

USING INTERPOLATION FOR GENERATING INPUT DATA FOR THE GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT MONTE CARLO SIMULATION

Input modelling is a complex task within the Monte Carlo simulation, especially when the systems and processes under investigation reveal the non-linear behavior of several interdependent variables. Commonly used approaches for Monte Carlo simulation input modelling include selecting probability distributions and fitting them to existing data; resampling random variates from historical data; and using real-world data as an input model, which in the age of big data becomes more feasible. Each of the approaches comes with its own set of drawbacks. This note aims to describe a new method of input modelling for GDP Monte Carlo simulation based on interpolation of the GDP historical records. Also, this method has been implemented as a publicly available online tool using the Microsoft Azure Machine Learning Studio. A similar approach can be applied to other macroeconomic indicators, e.g., consumer price index (inflation) or current employment statistics. This note is intended for economists, data scientists, and operations research analysts interested in the GDP Monte Carlo simulation. It can also be used by academics, researchers, and practitioners in a broad subject area for generating input data for Monte Carlo simulation. Specifically, it can be of interest for Ph.D. candidates (VAC specialty 5.2.6) performing development of theory and methods of decision-making in economic and social systems, and application of artificial intelligence and big data methods in management.

Trend Analysis and Macroeconomic Variable Determinants of Egg Production in Nigeria

The daily animal protein intake of an average Nigerian is far less than the World Health Organization recommended minimum standard. The egg is the cheapest and most affordable animal protein source in Nigeria, but its production has not been able to match the increasing demand capacity. Premised on the above facts and to identify ways to intensify egg production, the study was specifically designed to examine the trend in egg production and establish the relationship between egg production and selected macroeconomic fundamentals in addition to other variables in Nigeria. The study used time series data from the period 1961 to 2020. The data were sourced from the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO), the World Bank, and the Central Bank of Nigeria. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test and ADF-GLS unit root test were used to confirm the stability of the series. The Engle-Granger two-step technique was used to test for the cointegration of the series. The empirical finding showed that the amount of credit disbursed to the agricultural sector, per capita income, and the quantity of maize and chicken meat produced are positive determinants of egg production in both long and short-run periods. In contrast, the consumer price index (inflation rate) relates negatively in both periods to egg production. To upsurge egg production in the country, it is recommended that more credit facilities be injected into the agricultural sector. At the same time, the inflation rate is maintained at a minimal rate in the country.

Interest rates and inflation at the present stage in Russia

The subject of the study is the processes of interaction between interest rates and inflation in the domestic economy, contributing to changes in the quality of life of the population, business activity and the volume of investments of organizations. the purpose of the work is to establish a mechanism for increasing the efficiency of the interest rate and stabilizing inflation in the conditions of turbulence of the Russian economy. the study summarizes the processes of the relationship between the key rate of the Bank of Russia, bank interest rates and inflation; the reasons for the price increase have been identified, the current trends in the consumer price index, the dynamics of prices in the markets of goods and services, changes in the cost of housing have been identified, and the conditions for increasing the effectiveness of the interest rate in Russia have been established. Through a systematic and comprehensive analysis, the strengths and weaknesses of inflation targeting as a tool for stabilizing monetary relations under conditions of uncertainty in Russia are identified; the dependence of the growth of the consumer price index (inflation rate) on average annual interest rates is revealed. the conclusions are made that the strengthening of the role of the mega-regulator for regulating the interest rate and the inflation rate makes it possible to determine clear guidelines and quickly adapt to new macroeconomic conditions. the proposals to increase the efficiency of the interest rate and stabilize inflation within the framework of the implementation of a soft monetary policy are substantiated.

Inflation-Adjusted Medicare Reimbursement for Hip Arthroscopy Fell by 21.1% on Average Between 2011 and 2022

To examine Medicare reimbursement for hip arthroscopy from 2011 to2022. The seven most common procedures performed with hip arthroscopy by a single surgeon were gathered. The Physician Fee Schedule Look-Up Tool was utilized to access financial data of the associated Current Procedural Terminology (CPT) codes. The reimbursement data for each CPT were gathered from the Physician Fee Schedule Look-Up Tool. With the consumer price index database and inflation calculator, reimbursement values were adjusted for inflation to 2022 U.S. dollars. Following an adjustment for inflation, it was found that reimbursement rate for hip arthroscopy procedures on average was 21.1% lower between 2011 and 2022. The average reimbursement per CPT code for the included codes was $899.21 in 2022 compared to inflation adjusted $1,141.45 in 2011, a difference of $242.24. From 2011 to 2022, the average inflation-adjusted Medicare reimbursement has steadily declined for the most common hip arthroscopy procedures. As Medicare is one of the largest insurance payers, these results have substantial financial and clinical implications for orthopaedic surgeons, policy makers, and patients. Level IV, economic analysis.

한국의 인플레이션 결정요인에 대한 실증 분석

Purpose - This study examines the determinants of inflation in Korea, which includes the validity for the evidence of agflation. Design/Methodology/Approach - This study used monthly data from January 2003 to September 2021, which included the consumer price index (CPI) equation, food price index equation, and CPI inflation transmission equation. The econometric procedures were utilized by ordinary least square (OLS), instrumental variable (IV), three stage least square (3SLS) for time series data, and adopted by vector autoregression (VAR), and vector error correction model (VECM) for multivariate analysis Findings - First, the increase in real gross national income (GNI), oil prices, and food related CPI contributed to the increase in overall CPI. Second, the increase in meat and dairy-related CPI denoted the increase in the agri-food related CPI. Finally, the entire inflation had bi-directional Granger causality with agri-food and oil related inflation, and non-agri-food and non-oil related inflation. Also, the impact of agri-food and oil related inflation was relatively short, but it greatly influenced the entire inflation, and the impact of non-agri-food and non-oil related inflation influenced the entire inflation for a long period. Research Implications - Policy makers consider that almost all grains depend on imports, except for rice; policies related to price level management should be prepared for the impact of food prices rising, and furthermore, international cooperation and coordination should be carried out at the same time.