Trend Analysis and Macroeconomic Variable Determinants of Egg Production in Nigeria

Abstract

The daily animal protein intake of an average Nigerian is far less than the World Health Organization recommended minimum standard. The egg is the cheapest and most affordable animal protein source in Nigeria, but its production has not been able to match the increasing demand capacity. Premised on the above facts and to identify ways to intensify egg production, the study was specifically designed to examine the trend in egg production and establish the relationship between egg production and selected macroeconomic fundamentals in addition to other variables in Nigeria. The study used time series data from the period 1961 to 2020. The data were sourced from the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO), the World Bank, and the Central Bank of Nigeria. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test and ADF-GLS unit root test were used to confirm the stability of the series. The Engle-Granger two-step technique was used to test for the cointegration of the series. The empirical finding showed that the amount of credit disbursed to the agricultural sector, per capita income, and the quantity of maize and chicken meat produced are positive determinants of egg production in both long and short-run periods. In contrast, the consumer price index (inflation rate) relates negatively in both periods to egg production. To upsurge egg production in the country, it is recommended that more credit facilities be injected into the agricultural sector. At the same time, the inflation rate is maintained at a minimal rate in the country.