Conservative Party Leadership Election Research Articles

Trusting Truss: Conservative MPs’ Voting Preferences in the (First) British Conservative Party Leadership Election of 2022

ABSTRACT This paper identifies the candidate preferences of Conservative parliamentarians in the final parliamentary ballot and the membership ballot of the Conservative Party leadership election of 2022. We code each parliamentarians’ candidate preference within a wider dataset on the parliamentary Conservative Party (PCP) and test a range of hypotheses covering the following: a). personal factors relating to gender, sexuality, ethnicity and education b). political factors, relating to constituency marginality and type, as well as prior support for Johnson, and c). ideological factors, covering for example, attitudes towards Brexit, cultural debates, levelling up, economic liberalism, net zero and Covid restrictions. Our research findings demonstrate that despite common media narratives at the time of the party leadership election, variables capturing loyalty or opposition to Johnson did not structure patterns of support for candidates in either round. A parliamentarian's position on levelling up, as well as the UK's membership of, and relationship with, the European Union (based on whether they were remainers, leavers, or a member of the European Research Group) were more important in structuring support. However broader measures of ideology, as evidenced through the membership of extra-parliamentary groups, was found not to be important.

Selecting Sunak: Conservative MPs’ Nomination Preferences in the (Second) British Conservative Party Leadership Election

Abstract This article utilises an original dataset covering all members of the Parliamentary Conservative Party (PCP) to analyse the basis of support for Rishi Sunak, Boris Johnson and Penny Mordaunt in the October 2022 British Conservative Party leadership election. The significance of our findings is that they form the basis for a new understanding of how conservatism in the UK is changing post-Brexit. Our political variables include constituency majority size, red wall status, constituency support for leave, an MP’s position in the June 2022 vote of confidence in Johnson’s leadership of the Conservative Party, ministerial status and rebellion rates on key legislation. Our ideological variables include EU referendum position and membership of the European Research Group and the Conservative Environment Network, along with whether MPs are classed as socially liberal, socially conservative or pro-levelling up. We find that candidates appealed to different, often rival, sections of the Conservative Party. In line with previous studies of this nature, social liberalism still represents a key dividing line within the party, and the European dimension of intra-party conflict has remained significant in light of the UK’s decision to leave the European Union.

UK Conservative Party's Political Strategists in 2019 Election Campaigns

In this article, the author examines the leading political strategists and spin doctors of the Conservative Party in the context of their involvement in the 2019 United Kingdom election campaigns. The purpose of the article is to demonstrate the political strategists’ contribution in Boris Johnson’s Tory leadership election victory and in the United Kingdom general election Conservative triumph. The focus of the article is on two main strategist groups – the Australian pool and the British pool. The main face of Australians was Lynton Crosby, of British - Dominic Cummings. The article considers the role both strategist groups’ main faces in the Conservative Party leadership election campaign and United Kingdom general election campaign, including Lynton Crosby, Dominic Cummings, Mark Fullbrook, Isaac Levido, Michael Brooks, Edward Lister, and Lee Cain. The author demonstrates that in 2019, the Conservative Party had the strongest Political Strategists Corps in its recent history. They ensured that the Tories retained their position as the main political force in the UK. The main sources of this article are publications in the British and Australian media, official Conservative Party documents, including the 2019 general election campaign manifestos, original writings of British politicians and policy-makers, especially those of Boris Johnson, and interviews with both British and Australian political analysts.

The Conservative Party Leadership Election of 2019: An Analysis of the Voting Motivations of Conservative Parliamentarians

Abstract This article provides an empirical analysis of the voting behaviour of Conservative parliamentarians in the final parliamentary ballot of the Conservative Party leadership election of 2019. We construct a dataset for the parliamentary Conservative Party and then put forward hypotheses that will consider the possible Eurosceptic, party political, economic and/or ideological motivations for the voting behaviour of Conservative parliamentarians in the final parliamentary ballot. Our findings demonstrate that support for Johnson and Hunt was structured around age and voting behaviour in the European Union (EU) membership referendum, with support for Gove drawn from those who voted for May’s Withdrawal Agreement in the first meaningful vote. Other factors, such as the economic impact of Brexit on constituencies and social liberalism, were not found to be statistically significant.

The Conservative Party Leadership Election of 2016: An Analysis of the Voting Motivations of Conservative Parliamentarians

This article provides the first systematic examination of the voting motivations of Conservative MPs in the final parliamentary ballot of the Conservative Party leadership election of 2016. We identify the voting behaviour of each Conservative parliamentarian as part of a unique data set that we use to test, through the use of multivariate analysis, a series of hypotheses based around social background variables (i.e. gender and education); political variables (i.e. parliamentary experience, electoral marginality, the electoral threat posed by UKIP and ministerial status); and ideological variables (i.e. attitudes towards same-sex marriage and Brexit). Our findings demonstrate that ideology did matter in terms of voting. Attitudes towards Brexit were central to the appeals of both Theresa May (to Remainers) and Andrea Leadsom (to Leavers). We also demonstrate that in terms of support for Leadsom, Brexit was not the only significant driver, as opinion on same-sex marriage, year of entry and ministerial status also influenced voting behaviour.

Conservative ministers in the Coalition government of 2010–15: evidence of bias in the ministerial selections of David Cameron?

ABSTRACTThe article uses a data set of the 2010–15 Parliamentary Conservative Party (PCP) to test a series of hypotheses in order to determine whether those selected for ministerial office during the coalition era were representative of the PCP as a whole. The findings show no significant associations or bias by Cameron in terms of age, schooling, regional base, morality, voting for Cameron in the Conservative Party leadership election and, most significantly, gender. Significant associations or bias were evident in terms of Cameron’s patronage with regard to university education and electoral marginality. The findings demonstrate that any critique of current Conservative ministers based on their supposed elitism stems from the institutional and structural biases within the Conservative Party at candidate selection level, and cannot be attributed to bias on behalf of Cameron.

The 2011 Scottish Conservative Party Leadership Election: Dilemmas for Statewide Parties in Regional Contexts

The 2011 Scottish Conservative leadership election presented the party with two radically different visions for the future. The Scottish Conservatives rejected Murdo Frasers plan to create a new independent Scottish Party of the centre right and elected Ruth Davidson, who promised to reform the party within the UK Conservative Party. The Conservatives rejection of a radical break with the past suggests they will continue along a path of incremental change and supports an institutionalist analysis of party adaptation to devolution. This article explores why Davidson won and examines some of the implications for the Scottish and UK Conservative parties. The centre-periphery tension played out during the campaign is a dilemma for all territorial branches of statewide parties but poses especially difficult problems for the Conservatives because of the tension between unionist and centre-right agendas.

The Significance of the 2005 British Conservative Party Leadership Election

The Significance of the 2005 British Conservative Party Leadership Election

The Voting Motivations of Conservative Parliamentarians in the Conservative Party Leadership Election of 2001

This article examines the voting motivations of Conservative parliamentarians in the final parliamentary ballot of the Conservative party leadership election of 2001. By constructing a data set of the voting behaviour of Conservative parliamentarians in the final parliamentary party ballot, this article seeks to test a series of hypotheses relating to the ideological disposition and political characteristics of the candidates vis-à-vis their electorate. The article examines how and why the eliminative parliamentary ballot ensured that the party membership was presented with a face-off between the europhile, Kenneth Clarke, and the eurosceptic, Iain Duncan Smith, and why the modernising and socially liberal Michael Portillo was rejected. It will demonstrate that while arguments based on ideological factors are valid, the political characteristics of age and career status were also significant motivational influences that contributed to the rejection of Portillo and the delaying of the modernisation of the Conservative party.

Transcending Thatcherism? Ideology and the Conservative Party Leadership Mandate of David Cameron

This paper examines the voting motivations of Conservative parliamentarians in the final parliamentary ballot of the Conservative Party leadership election of 2005. By constructing a data set of the voting behaviour of Conservative parliamentarians in the final parliamentary party ballot, and by determining the ideological disposition of the 2005 PCP this paper examines the ideological disposition of the candidates' vis‐à‐vis their electorate. The paper identifies the increasing Thatcherite nature of the PCP across three dominant ideological divides of contemporary British Conservatism‐economic, European, and social, sexual and moral policy. Through such an analysis the paper demonstrates how the modernising David Cameron, who came first in the final parliamentary ballot and then won the membership ballot, transcended the traditional ideological voting motivations of candidates' vis‐à‐vis their electorate. Most significantly, the paper demonstrates that the European ideological policy divide was not a factor in the succession contest, unlike the succession contests of 1990, 1997 and 2001.

Democratising conservative leadership selection: from grey suits to grass roots

Preface 1. Introduction: democracy, legitimacy and Conservative leadership 2. The 'magic circle' and after: from selection to election 3. Hague's revenge: the Conservative leadership election of 2001 4. Full circle to the magic circle 5. From May to December Part 1: the phoney war 6. From May to December Part 2: a tale of two speeches 7. Cameron's mandate for modernisation 8. Conclusion Appendix I: Conservative Party leadership election results 1965-2005 Appendix II: The experience upon reaching office of Conservative Party leaders since the War Appendix III: Declarations of support in the 2005 Conservative Party leadership election Appendix IV: Bookmakers' odds on the 2005 Conservative Party leadership election Selected bibliography

The 2001 British Conservative Party leadership election and the general membership of the Party

The 2001 British Conservative Party leadership election and the general membership of the Party

The Conservative Party Leadership Election of 1997: An Analysis of the Voting Motivations of Conservative Parliamentarians

This paper examines the voting motivations of Conservative parliamentarians in the final ballot of the Conservative Party leadership election of 1997. Conservative parliamentarians had a clear choice between the political characteristics and the ideological disposition of the candidates. Should they endorse a senior, experienced and electorally attractive candidate, Kenneth Clarke, or a junior, inexperienced and less electorally attractive candidate, William Hague? and should they endorse the socially liberal, economic damp, and Europhile Clarke or the socially conservative, economic and Eurosceptic Hague? By constructing a data set of the voting behaviour of Conservative parliamentarians in the final party leadership ballot, this paper seeks, through the use of bivariate analysis, to test a series of hypotheses relating to the political characteristics and ideological disposition of the candidates vis-a-vis their electorate. The paper demonstrates that attitudes to the European ideological divide alone do not fully explain the rejection of Clarke and the endorsement of Hague. The paper concludes that ideological disposition was a key determinant of voting behaviour across all three of the ideological determinants of post-Thatcherite Conservatism (i.e. the social, sexual and morality policy divide, the economic policy divide and the European policy divide). Moreover, it confirms that ideology was not the sole determinant of voting behaviour; the political characteristics of age and parliamentary experience were significant in explaining how a youthful, inexperienced, Thatcherite Eurosceptic secured the party leadership.

The Conservative Party Leadership Election of 2001

The Conservative Party Leadership Election of 2001

The Conservative Party Leadership Election of 1997

The Conservative Party Leadership Election of 1997

Right Turn: A Revisionist Account of the 1975 Conservative Party Leadership Election

Right Turn: A Revisionist Account of the 1975 Conservative Party Leadership Election

The Conservative Party Leadership Election of 1995

The Conservative Party Leadership Election of 1995