Priority Areas For Conservation Research Articles

Identifying complementary conservation and restoration priority areas for plant species

The coverage of protected areas (PAs) remains far from the Kunming-Montreal target and degraded ecosystems are greatly limiting the conservation efficiency of PAs. Therefore, this paper proposes a method to identify conservation and restoration priority areas to supplement existing PAs. A case study was conducted focusing on Yunnan, southwestern China, which intersects with three world biodiversity hotspots. First, the spatial ranges for 3768 representative conservation plant species were mapped using species distribution models. Subsequently, planning units were classified into three restorability categories, namely no-need restoration, potentially restorable and non-restorable units, according to land cover changes between 2000 and 2020. Then, conservation and restoration priority areas were identified by applying a two-step systematic conservation planning process. Finally, replacement cost analysis was applied to compare the effectiveness of existing PAs and the overall 30 % priority areas. Northwestern, southwestern, and southeastern Yunnan have high biodiversity conservation values. Especially in eastern and southeastern Yunnan, large amounts of restoration priority areas were identified. Conservation and restoration priority areas account for 15.80 % and 3.69 % of Yunnan's land, respectively. Compared to existing PAs, conservation priority areas can increase the number of species covered from 2461 to 3277, and further to 3566 when including restoration priority areas. Compared to existing PAs, the mean species coverage in the overall 30 % priority areas has increased from 27.28 % to 72.69 %. Notably, 12.86 % of existing PAs were identified as restoration priority areas. This study indicates that in addition to conservation measures, implementing restoration strategies in high conservation-value areas is equally important.

Climate change will decrease the coverage of suitable niches for Asian medicinal orchid (Bulbophyllum odoratissimum) and its main phorophyte (Pistacia weinmannifolia).

Considering the global biodiversity crisis and the growing demand for medicinal plants, it is crucial to preserve therapeutically useful herbs. From a conservation management perspective under climate change, identifying areas that enable valuable natural resources to persist in the future is crucial. Machine learning-based models are commonly used to estimate the locations of climate refugia, which are critical for the effective species conservation. The aim of this study was to assess the impact of global warming on the epiphytic medicinal orchid-Bulbophyllum odoratissimum. Given how the long-term survival of plants inhabiting shrubs and trees depends on the availability of suitable phorophyets, in this research potential range changes in reported orchid plant hosts were evaluated. According to conducted analyses, global warming will cause a decline in the coverage of the suitable niches for B. odoratissimum and its main phorophyte. The most significant habitat loss in the case of the studied orchid and Pistacia weinmannifolia will be observed in the southern part of their geographical ranges and some new niches will simultaneously become available for these plants in the northern part. Climate change will significantly increase the overlap of geographical ranges of P. weinmannifolia and the orchid. In the SSP5-8.5 scenario trees will be available for more than 56% of the orchid population. Other analyzed phorophytes, will be available for B. odoratissimum to a very reduced extent, as orchids will only utilize these species as habitats only occasionally. This study provides data on the distribution of climatic refugia of B. odoratissimum under global warming. Moreover, this is the first evaluation of the future geographical ranges for its phorophytes. According to the conducted analyses, only one of the previously reported tree species which are inhabited by B. odoratissimum, P. weinmannifolia, can serve as a phorophyte for this orchid in the future. In this study, the areas designated as suitable for the occurrence of both orchids and their phorophytes should be considered priority conservation areas for the studied medicinal plants.

Endemic and threatened birds as surrogates for identifying conservation priority areas and ecological corridors in the America’s most endangered habitat

Investigating multi-taxa macroecological patterns can provide critical insights for spatial conservation planning and landscape management across biodiversity hotspots. The Pernambuco Endemism Center (PEC) is a biogeographic region of the Brazilian Atlantic Forest known to harbor the most threatened habitats in the Americas and a considerable number of recent bird extinctions. Here, we modeled the distribution of 30 threatened forest-dependent birds, 29 of which endemic to the PEC, to reveal key habitats/resources for their survival, identify conservation priority areas, and design ecological corridors. We found variations in the responses of the taxa to landscape characteristics when we addressed these organisms separately and when we grouped them by conservation status. Overall, the environmental variables related to forest quality (e.g., distance to large fragments, distance to the forest edge, percentage of tree cover, percentage of older forests) were important predictors of habitat suitability for the regional threatened avifauna. Additionally, we revealed forest fragments of high ecological importance for the PEC’s threatened birds, and we propose the creation of the Pernambuco Endemism Center Restoration Arc (PEC-ARC) that may maximize the investments in conservation and guarantee the connectivity of crucial areas for long-term species survival.

Spatial distribution and priority conservation areas identification in Three-River-Source National Park considering the multifaceted values of plants

Spatially differentiated conservation effort for natural resources is critical to achieving a balance between protection and development in national parks. However, the extent of priority conservation areas for plants that integrate multispecies and multifaceted values is unclear. Here, we selected fine-resolution environmental variables with stronger impacts on wild plant survival to spatialize the distribution of all modeling-eligible species using species distribution models in Three-River-Source National Park, China. These were then combined with in situ conservation results for insufficient data species to identify priority conservation areas (PCAs) in terms of diversity, ecological and economic values, respectively. We analyzed the spatial characteristics of the priority conservation areas and searched for conservation gaps not covered by national nature reserves. The results showed that this study obtained more precise results on the spatial distribution of species by improving environmental variables and upgrading the spatial resolution. In Three-River-Source National Park, the species richness of wild plants showed a decreasing trend from southeast to northwest. There were significant differences in the spatial distribution of the priority conservation areas identified based on the three values, which was the basis for the spatially differentiated conservation and development of wild plant resources. In addition, the priority conservation areas obtained based on ecological value found Top17% priority conservation areas in the Hoh Xil Natural Reserve, which could not be revealed based on diversity or economic value. These results highlight the urgency of implementing multispecies and multifaceted values studies in national parks. In the future, studying conflicts between wildlife priority conservation areas and human activities, and expanding to national parks on a global scale, will be the focus that this study will continue to explore.

Predicting conservation priority areas in Borneo for the critically endangered helmeted hornbill (Rhinoplax vigil)

The critically endangered helmeted hornbill (Rhinoplax vigil) is under threat around its Southeast Asian range due to hunting and habitat loss. Dependant on primary rainforest habitats, the species is thought to be highly sensitive to habitat disturbance. Compounding this is the threat of climate change where equatorial ecosystems, such as those found on Borneo, are predicted to increase in temperature and precipitation. It is therefore important to identify whether the species’ suitable habitats, both now and in the future, are protected from further anthropogenic disturbance. In this study we used species distribution models to assess the extent of suitable habitat for R. vigil across Borneo, an island which has undergone rapid deforestation in recent years, and a stronghold for the species. Using 302 R. vigil occurrence records, four environmental and three land-use cover variables, we modelled R. vigil current habitat suitability, and two future projections under climate change scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 for 2041–2060. Our results suggest that a quarter of Borneo's landmass is currently suitable for R. vigil. However, there is a steep decline in the predicted suitable habitat from 335,963 km2 (current scenario) to 73,170 km2 (future RCP 4.5), to 54,839 km2 (future RCP 8.5). Our model predicts that the amount of suitable habitat protected by current protected areas (PAs) and the planned Heart of Borneo (HoB) initiative will increase under future climate change, with the HoB protecting > 65 % of R. vigil suitable habitat across all projections. This is likely worsened by future land-use change not included in these models, which is a limitation to our study. We therefore encourage the connectivity of lowland PAs, and the continuation of HoB targets to prevent further decline of R. vigil habitat around Borneo. This study provides the first species-specific spatial assessment of the critically endangered helmeted hornbill distribution in response to climate change across current and planned protected regions in Borneo.

Distribution and habitat use patterns of the endangered Central American clouded oncilla (Leopardus pardinoides oncilla) in Costa Rica.

Montane cloud forests are highly threatened ecosystems that are vulnerable to climate change. These complex habitats harbor many species that suffer the negative consequences of this global phenomenon, such as shifts in their distribution and habitat use. The Central American clouded oncilla (Leopardus pardinoides oncilla) is the smallest and most endangered wild cat in Mesoamerica and is primarily reported in cloud forests throughout its distribution. The species is poorly understood, with no studies conducted in Central America assessing its habitat preferences. To bridge this knowledge gap, we sampled two mountain ranges in Costa Rica with camera traps and conducted an occupancy analysis to understand the anthropogenic and environmental features that influence oncilla habitat use within them. Additionally, we conducted spatial predictions of habitat use across its northern and southern range in Costa Rica to identify priority conservation areas for the species. We found that Central American clouded oncilla habitat use is driven primarily by environmental factors. Our results showed that oncillas select habitats with denser tree cover at high elevations, closer to permanent water sources, which may provide them with high prey density and a favorable habitat structure for their survival. Spatial predictions identified two main regions as conservation priority areas where threat mitigation efforts and monitoring should be implemented: the Caribbean slope of the Talamanca mountains, and the Arenal-Monteverde forest complex. The occupancy modeling approach turned out to be very useful to assess the spatial associations of the species with the environment and mapping the conservation priority areas. Future research and mitigation actions should focus on potential threats that could negatively impact Central American clouded oncilla populations and habitat use, including the role of mesopredators and feral species.

Amphibian hotspots in Iran: Effectiveness of current protected area and priorities for conservation planning

The identification of conservation priority areas for amphibians in Iran remains unexplored. Although protected areas play a vital role in biodiversity conservation, 40 percent of amphibians are at risk of extinction. The present study aimed to identify the priority areas for amphibian conservation and assess the effectiveness of the current protected conservation areas. 2192 species occurrence points for 23 amphibians, including 16 species of Anura and 7 species of Caudata, were curated. These occurrence points in addition to bioclimatic, anthropogenic, and geographical variables were used to model the species distribution. Then, the richness and rarity maps of amphibians were determined and hotspots identified based on the top 10 % area of the country with the highest richness and rarity values. Finally, Iran's protected areas were overlaid to evaluate the current coverage of hotspots and identify future conservation priorities. Although approximately 12 % of Iran is currently protected, the present study findings indicate that the current network of protected areas is ineffective for amphibian conservation; over 90 % of hotspots for amphibians lie outside the current national protected area network. The most important hotspots are located in the Caspian Hyrcanian Mixed Forest, the western margin of the North Zagros, and the Central Zagros Mountains Forest-Steppe ecoregions of the country. Among different types of protected areas that overlap with amphibian hotspots, protected areas and wildlife refuges respectively ranked the highest in quantity and size, while national parks ranked the lowest. In the current study, a baseline of top candidate areas for expanding protected areas where habitats can be managed to protect amphibians in Iran was provided. To further improve protected areas' coverage, priority conservation areas in the Zagros Mountains Forest-Steppe hotspots were recommended.

Identifying Conservation Priority Areas of Hydrological Ecosystem Service Using Hot and Cold Spot Analysis at Watershed Scale

Identifying Conservation Priority Areas of Hydrological Ecosystem Service Using Hot and Cold Spot Analysis at Watershed Scale

Present and future distribution of the European pond turtle versus seven exotic freshwater turtles, with a focus on Eastern Europe

Freshwater turtles are often used as terrarium pets, especially juveniles of exotic species. At the adult stage they are often released by their owners into the wild despite their high invasion potential. In Europe these thermophilic potentially invasive alien species occupy the habitats of the native European pond turtle Emys orbicularis (Linnaeus, 1758), with new records from the wild being made specifically in Eastern Europe (Latvia and Ukraine) during recent decades. Assessing the potential of alien freshwater turtles to establish in new territories is of great concern for preventing invasion risks while preserving native biodiversity in the present context of climate change. We explored this issue by identifying the present and future (by 2050) suitable habitats of the European pond turtle and several potentially invasive alien species of freshwater turtle already settled in Europe, using a geographic information system (GIS) modelling approach based on datasets from CliMond for climate, Near-global environmental information (NGEI) for freshwater ecosystems (EarthEnv) and Maxent modelling using open-access databases, data from the literature and original field data. Modelling was performed for seven species of alien freshwater turtles occurring from the extreme northern to southern borders of the European range of E. orbicularis: the pond slider Trachemys scripta (Thunberg and Schoepff, 1792), the river cooter Pseudemys concinna (Le Conte, 1830), the Florida red-bellied cooter Pseudemys nelsoni (Carr, 1938), the false map turtle Graptemys pseudogeographica (Gray, 1831), the Chinese softshell turtle Pelodiscus sinensis (Wiegmann, 1835), the Caspian turtle Mauremys caspica (Gmelin, 1774) and the Balkan terrapin Mauremys rivulata (Valenciennes, 1833). In Ukraine, the most Eastern limit of E. orbicularis distribution, were previously reported northern American originated T. scripta, M. rivulata, M. caspica, whereas in Latvia, Emys’ most northern limit, were additionally reported P. concinna, P. nelsoni, G. pseudogeographica and Asia originated P. sinensis. The resulting Species Distribution Models (SDM) were of excellent performance (AUC > 0.8). Of these alien species, the most potentially successful in terms of range expansion throughout Europe were T. scripta (34.3% of potential range expansion), G. pseudogeographica (24.1%), and M. caspica (8.9%) and M. rivulata (4.3%) mainly in Eastern Europe, especially in the south of Ukraine (Odesa, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia regions, and Crimean Peninsula). Correlation between the built SDMs for the native E. orbicularis and the invasive alien T. scripta was reliably high, confirming the highly likely competition between these two species in places they cooccur. Moreover, a Multiple Regression Analysis revealed that by 2050, in most of Europe (from the western countries to Ukraine), the territory overlap between E. orbicularis and potentially invasive alien species of freshwater turtles will increase by 1.2 times, confirming higher competition in the future. Importantly, by 2050, Eastern Europe and Ukraine are predicted to be the areas with most suitable habitats for the European pond turtle yet with most limited overlap with the invasive alien species. We conclude that Eastern Europe and Ukraine are the most relevant priority conservation areas for the European pond turtle where it is now necessary to take protective measures to ensure safe habitat for this native species on the long-term.

Integrating aquatic species, assemblage, and habitat climate change vulnerabilities into a watershed-scale decision support framework

Climate change is increasingly recognized as a serious threat to ecological systems, particularly freshwater systems. As a result, climate adaptation planning is more common in natural resource management. Because conservation resources are limited, decision support tools can help managers prioritize actions. We created the Species and Habitat-based Ecological Decision Support tool (wtrSHEDS) for conservation managers by integrating two distinct indices: one biologically based on aquatic watershed-scale species assemblages and the other a habitat climate change vulnerability index. To do this, we evaluated 60 crayfish and fish species in West Virginia, USA, using the NatureServe Climate Change Vulnerability Index under an A1B emissions scenario. The species vulnerability assessment results indicated that most species we assessed are vulnerable to climate change. Four species of fish and two species of crayfish had extremely high vulnerability due to their dependence on a specific hydrological cycle, sensitivity to barriers, and reproductive dependence on a thermal niche. Aggregating species at the watershed scale (8-digit hydrological unit code [HUC]) using an adapted weighted sum indicated which assemblages were the most and least vulnerable to climate change. Secondly, we created a unique habitat vulnerability index using the established Northeast Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies habitat vulnerability index and an index of land cover vulnerability from the Forecast Scenario model’s land cover change projections under the A1B emissions scenario to incorporate potential synergistic impacts of land use. Land cover projections were reclassified based on the assumption that developed land would have a higher potential to interact with climate change than forested lands synergistically. We combined the two habitat indices at the watershed scale (HUC 8) and performed a Hot Spot Analysis to 1) combine the assemblage and habitat vulnerability indices and 2) identify watersheds of conservation priority. This assessment methodology illustrates a means of identifying priority conservation areas in West Virginia that utilize pre-existing data, can be modified to suit management needs, and, therefore, one that managers across regions can readily apply to their system.

Connecting the dots: Applying multispecies connectivity in marine park network planning

Marine ecosystems are highly dynamic, and their connectivity is affected by a complex range of biological, spatial, and oceanographic factors. Incorporating connectivity as a factor in the planning and management of marine protected areas (MPAs) is important yet challenging. Here, we implemented a novel integrative framework that uses intraspecific genetic and genomic data for multiple marine species to characterise connectivity across a recently established South Australian MPA network. We generated connectivity networks, estimated cross-species concordance of connectivity patterns, and tested the impact of key spatial and oceanographic factors on each species. Connectivity patterns varied markedly among species, but were most correlated among those with similar dispersal strategies. Ordination analyses revealed significant associations with both waterway distances and oceanographic advection models. Notably, waterway distances provided better predictive power in all-species combined analyses. We extended the practical relevance of our findings by employing spatial prioritisation with Marxan, using node values derived from both genetic and geographic connectivity networks. This allowed the identification of several priority areas for conservation, and substantiated the initial decision to employ spatial distance as a proxy for biological connectivity for the design of the South Australian marine park network. Our study establishes a baseline for connectivity monitoring in South Australian MPAs, and provides guidelines for adapting this framework to protected networks elsewhere in the world.

Global conservation priorities of coastal habitats towards extreme sea level rise risks

Approximately 70% of the world's largest megacities (>10 million people) are within 60 km of the coast, contributing to 50% of the world's GDP. Sea level rise will intensify coastal flood threats, making cities without sufficient habitat protection even more vulnerable. However, there is currently a lack of thorough evaluation at the global scale about conservation priorities based on the current habitat cover and the high sea level rise in order to adapt coastal flood risks. Here we assessed the disparity among habitat coverage, exposed population and extreme sea level rise to identify priority areas for future coastal conservation. These priority areas are characterized by a large population residing in low-elevation coastal zones (LECZs), high extreme sea levels (ESLs), and insufficient habitat coverages. In many highly populated countries like China and India, the flooding risk has been underestimated due to insufficient adaptation based on natural processes from coastal habitats. These highly populated countries are especially concerning because they have comparatively less vegetation protection capability and are subjected to high ESLs. Globally, Asian and European nations, such as China, Japan, Bangladesh, Viet Nam, the United Kingdom, Belgium, Ireland, the Netherlands, and Germany, have the highest potential for mitigating coastal risks through natural habitat conservation and restoration. We found that the main contributors to variations in the extreme sea level rise risks are not due to exposure headcounts (6%), but due to inadequate habitat cover (42%), which can be improved through targeted conservation and restoration. Our research identified the global priorities for managing climate resilience that most urgently require ecosystem conservation and restoration in order to prepare for the risks of coastal flooding.

Quantifying the Potential of the Tropical Dry Region of the Gulf of Mexico to Provide Tree Species with Traditional Uses for Forest-Reliant Communities

The tropical dry regions in the Neotropics are under intense anthropogenic pressures, resulting in changes for local communities related with their life patterns, wellbeing, and their relationship with ecosystems. The region has a history of human occupation that has shaped the traditional use of resources. We evaluated the richness, redundancy, and divergence of traditional uses of tree species present in vegetation patches of the tropical dry region of the Gulf of Mexico using functional diversity indices. The most used species are Acacia cochliacantha, Cedrela odorata, Enterolobium cyclocarpum, Gliricidia sepium, and Guazuma ulmifolia, and the uses with the broadest distributions across the region are firewood and pasture management, while reforestation is the least common use. While distance to the nearest patch of the closest human settlement is the most predictive variable associated with inhabitants’ different uses or recognitions of the value of different plant species, the most recognized and valued species are widely distributed in Mexico. Even when the forest cover is greatly reduced, the inhabitants recognize numerous uses that can be obtained from the vegetation patches. The approach used in this work provides important baseline information, as well as a methodology that facilitates the identification of priority areas for conservation.

Identification of priority conservation areas in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei using multi-scenario trade-offs based on different spatial scales and their drivers

Identifying priority conservation areas (PCAs) on the basis of ecosystem services (ESs) trade-offs is a crucial step in achieving optimal ecosystem management in the BTH, noting the complex spatio-temporal and scaling effects inherent in these ecosystems. A cross-scale quantification of spatial and temporal changes in ecosystem services and their correlations was conducted in the BTH. Furthermore, the Ordered Weighting Algorithm (OWA) was introduced to simulate a variety of scenarios in order to determine the PCAs and to explore the drivers of ES in the PCAs. The results indicated that Food supply (FS), Water yield (WY), and Soil retention (SR) in the BTH increased by 16.4 × 104t/hm2, 81.81 mm, and 37081.29 t/hm2, respectively. In contrast, Carbon storage (CS) and Habit quality (HQ) exhibited a decrease of 0.01 t/hm2 and 0.03. Spatially, the high-value areas of ESs at the county scale exhibited greater clustering. At the county scale, there were two trade-offs and eight synergies in 2000, and four trade-offs and six synergies by 2020. In contrast, at the raster scale, there were two trade-offs and eight synergies from 2000 to 2020. The mechanisms of change were similar and exhibited spatial heterogeneity. Scenario 6 represents the optimal priority conservation area, exhibiting the most balanced conservation efficiency of each ecosystem service. This scenario enables the simultaneous conservation of multiple ESs. The natural factors within the PCAs exert a stronger influence on ESs than socio-economic factors. The inclusion of interacting factor effects will enhance the explanatory power of the drivers. The findings of this study can serve as a theoretical foundation for cross-scale ecosystem service management decisions.

Spatial and temporal ecology of Cerdocyon thous: a mesopredator canid coping with habitat loss, fragmentation, and chronic anthropogenic disturbances

ContextHuman activities are reducing the amount and quality of natural landscapes. Understanding how such changes affect the spatial and temporal ecology of mammal populations will enable us to foresee how communities will be structured in the Anthropocene.ObjectivesHere, we evaluated how the occupancy, intensity of use, and activity patterns of the mesopredator canid Cerdocyon thous are affected by topographic variation, habitat amount, fragmentation and chronic anthropogenic disturbances.MethodsCamera trapping data were obtained between May and September 2014 in 179 sampling points within ten priority areas for conservation in a seasonally dry tropical forest (Caatinga) in Brazil, totaling an effort of 6,701 camera.days. We use occupancy models for analyzed occupancy, generalized linear models (GLM) for the intensity of use and kernel density curve for activity pattern.ResultsCerdoyon thous benefited from human disturbance, showing greater occupancy and intensity of use near anthropogenic habitats, fragmentation, human density and cattle density. Moreover, temporal analyses showed that it modulates its daily activity according to habitat amount, human density, cattle density and altitude. However, C. thous tends to avoid areas with excess of fire, logging and infrastructures.ConclusionsThese results allow us to understand the mechanisms that contribute to the dominance of generalist mesocarnivores in human-dominated environments.

Overlap between priority conservation areas and natural assets appeals to a shared responsibility for global primate conservation

Expanding protected areas (PAs) coverage to match countries’ conservation responsibility is vital to stemming global biodiversity loss. Uneven biodiversity distribution and conservation responsibility among countries pose challenges to the implementation of conservation targets, and currently diminish conservation effectiveness. Using primates as a global model, we evaluated the conservation responsibility of countries to assess if their PA coverage adequately meets their conservation responsibility. We quantified spatial national responsibility for primate species conservation in each country from their range size of priority conservation areas (PCAs) and protected areas coverage on PCAs. We identified the high-responsibility countries for global primate conservation as countries that held > 1 % of global PCAs. We paid particular attention to the circumstances associated with PCAs in the least developed countries, especially the overlap between PCAs and the areas containing natural assets (natural assets areas). Seventeen countries were identified as high-responsibility countries that in total covered 84 % area of global PCAs. Current protected areas only covered less than 50 % of PCAs for fifteen of these high-responsibility countries. Among these fifteen countries, four countries (DR Congo, PA coverage: 19 %; Myanmar, 9 %; Madagascar, 29 %; Laos, 22 %) were the least developed countries. Most existing PCAs (95 %; SD 6 %) in these 17 countries are located within natural assets areas, which creates tension between primate conservation and local development. Global primate conservation is a shared responsibility among the international community. Developing countries have greater responsibility than most because of the overlapping of their PCAs with natural assets areas. For developing countries to fulfill their conservation responsibilities requires international conservation resources (funding support and cooperation). Protected areas expansion has to be matched with a realizable target for each country to avoid crippling conflicts between conservation and local development. Community-based management models, including other effective area-based conservation measures, may reduce potential conflict and improve conservation effectiveness.

Conservation Status of The Military Frog (Atelopus Balios) In the San Miguel Canton Naranjal Community

The present research focused on the conservation status of Atelopus balios, a species classified in the red list in danger of extinction, the destruction of its natural habitat is the main cause not only of the mentioned species but of all the amphibian fauna existing in the locality intervening in its development and reproduction. Three priority conservation areas were monitored within the locality, all this could be carried out with Geographic Information Systems, capturing the coordinates of identification of species records, and thus be able to interpret each of the data, where more specimens were found establishing areas of interest for the conservation of the species where measures for sustainable management should be implemented.

Multi‐species occupancy modeling of ground‐dwelling mammals in central Laos: a case study for monitoring in tropical forests

Unsustainable hunting and habitat loss have led to widespread mammal population declines in Southeast Asia, and evidence‐based conservation is needed to prevent further declines. Robust monitoring of population trends is a key component of evidence‐based approaches. We conducted a landscape‐scale systematic camera‐trapping survey in Nakai‐Nam Theun National Park, located within the Annamites region in Laos, with the objective of establishing a population baseline that can be used for long‐term monitoring for ground‐dwelling mammals. We analyzed camera‐trapping data within a multi‐species Royle–Nichols occupancy framework to estimate occupancy and species richness within three management zones. We used anthropogenic and ecological covariates to understand the factors influencing species occurrence in the study site. In total, we detected 40 terrestrial mammals over 20 794 camera‐trap days, including five Annamite endemics and 18 threatened species, of which 26 had sufficient detections to be included in the multi‐species occupancy analysis. We found that overall species richness increased with remoteness and elevation. Mean ± SD predicted species richness in the three management zones was 14.6 ± 1.55 (Zone 1‐Thong Khacheng), 13.18 ± 1.64 (Zone 2‐Thong Kouang), 11.84 ± 1.15 (Zone 3‐Nam Chae), with an average of 13.26 ± 2.03. Our study highlights the importance of Nakai‐Nam Theun National Park as a priority area for biodiversity conservation in the Annamites, and demonstrates the utility of using camera‐trapping and multi‐species occupancy modeling approaches to establish robust baselines for the monitoring of mammal communities in tropical protected areas.

Nonbreeding distributions of four declining Nearctic–Neotropical migrants are predicted to contract under future climate and socioeconomic scenarios

ABSTRACT Climate and land use/land cover change are expected to influence the stationary nonbreeding distributions of 4 Nearctic–Neotropical migrant bird species experiencing population declines: Cardellina canadensis (Canada Warbler), Setophaga cerulea (Cerulean Warbler), Vermivora chrysoptera (Golden-winged Warbler), and Hylocichla mustelina (Wood Thrush). Understanding how and where these species’ distributions shift in response to environmental drivers is critical to inform conservation planning in the Neotropics. For each species, we quantified current (2012 to 2021) and projected future (2050) suitable climatic and land use/land cover conditions as components of stationary nonbreeding distributions. Multi-source occurrence data were used in an ensemble modeling approach with covariates from 3 global coupled climate models (CMCC-ESM2, FIO-ESM-2-0, MIROC-ES2L) and 2 shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP2-RCP4.5, SSP5-RCP8.5) to predict distributions in response to varying climatic and land use/land cover conditions. Our findings suggest that distribution contraction, upslope elevational shifts in suitable conditions, and limited shifts in latitude and longitude will occur in 3 of 4 species. Cardellina canadensis and S. cerulea are expected to experience a moderate distribution contraction (7% to 29% and 19% to 43%, respectively), primarily in response to expected temperature changes. The V. chrysoptera distribution was modeled by sex, and females and males were projected to experience a major distribution contraction (56% to 79% loss in suitable conditions for females, 46% to 65% for males), accompanied by shifts in peak densities to higher elevations with minimal changes in the upper elevation limit. Expected changes in precipitation had the greatest effect on V. chrysoptera. Hylocichla mustelina experienced the smallest distribution change, consistent with the species’ flexibility in habitat selection and broader elevational range. We recommend defining priority areas for conservation as those where suitable conditions are expected to remain or arise in the next 25 years. For V. chrysoptera in particular, it is urgent to ensure that mid-elevation forests in Costa Rica and Honduras are adequately managed and protected.

Bioindicator aquatic insects at risk from climate change in a biodiversity hotspot

Climate change can affect biological assemblages by shifting their species' geographic range and changing species richness. Aquatic insects represent more than half of the freshwater animal species but have been neglected mainly in climate change assessments, particularly in tropical ecosystems. Among the aquatic insect taxa, Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera (EPT) are well-known bioindicators of environmental changes and encompass an essential metric for rivers and streams' biomonitoring. Here, we use ecological niche models to project the impact of climate change on the distribution range and richness of EPT in the Atlantic Forest biodiversity hotspot. We found EPT to be at high risk from future climate change, with Plecoptera as the order of greatest concern. We projected range contraction of ca. 90 % of the analyzed EPT genera, resulting in a reduction in the richness of EPT genera under future climatic conditions. We projected >50 % contraction in the distribution of 50 % of Plecoptera, ≈14 % of Trichoptera, and ≈7 % of Ephemeroptera genera. The remaining climatically suitable regions in the Atlantic Forest are concentrated in the high-altitude areas, which may act as climate refuges for EPT biodiversity in the future. The projected changes in EPT's distribution range and richness may impact biomonitoring programs conducted in tropical ecosystems. Restricting EPT's geographic distribution may undermine its potential as a bioindicator and influence the composition of EPT assemblages at reference sites, which may lead to shifting baseline conditions. We reinforce the importance of considering future climatic conditions when planning long-term biomonitoring and priority areas for conservation.