Conservation Biology Research Articles

Identification of biodiversity hotspots for threatened mammal species under future climate

Climate change has led to changes in distribution, movement, and extinction risk for various wildlife species, raising concern among conservation biologists. Therefore, this study aimed to predict suitable habitats that help wildlife managers protect wildlife more effectively. To achieve our aim, we first evaluated the vulnerability of 183 terrestrial mammal species identified in Iran under climate change based on habitat, phenology and physiology, biotic interactions, and national protection status. Then, MaxEnt was used to predict the potential changes in the distribution of vulnerable species due to climate change in the next 70 years under two scenarios: SSP126 and SSP585. In the third step, a framework was employed to identify existing and future hotspots of mammal biodiversity, and the potential changes in these areas for the species were predicted in the next 70 years. The results showed that 69 terrestrial mammals were vulnerable to climate change. Subsequently, 15 species wereselected for modeling based on presence records and vulnerability to climate change. The species modeling results showed that 42 % of Iran’s habitats are currently suitable for the studied mammal species. In the future, under both climate scenarios, biodiversity hotspots for these species will be reduced, and approximately 37 % of Iran’s habitats will be suitable for the species. As a result, the current conservation network will have diminished capacity to protect the species from climate change.

Study on the characteristics and scenario simulation of land use change in the Chaohu Lake Basin, China

Effectively evaluating the historical and future land use/cover change (LUCC) is significant for effective land use planning and management, ecological conservation, and restoration. Taking the Chaohu Lake Basin (CLB) as the study area, GIS technology and geographic detector were used to quantitatively analyze the change characteristics and driving factors of LUCC under the three periods in 2000, 2010, and 2020 of the CLB. This study aimed to comprehend the alterations that have transpired over the last two decades. In addition, the PLUS model was utilized to forecast LUCC trends under three scenarios: natural development, urban development, and ecological protection by 2030 in the CLB. The results suggest a significant decrease of the cultivated land area, while a considerable increase for the construction land area from 2000 to 2020 in the CLB. The expansion of the construction land area was mainly driven by the conversion of cultivated land area. Additionally, the slope was identified as the primary factor influencing LUCC, with q-values of 0.275, 0.266, and 0.258 in 2000, 2010, and 2020, respectively. The interaction between slope and soil type, distance to the trunk road and the secondary trunk road, and GDP was strong. The explanatory capacity of socioeconomic factors demonstrated a steady increase. The simulation results indicate that a decrease in cultivated land area and an increase in construction land area still occurred by 2030 in the CLB, particularly in the urban development scenario. Nonetheless, a notable deceleration of change was appeared in the ecological protection scenario. The alterations in forest and grassland areas were not significant. However, the water bodies area continued to enlarge, although the expansion was not substantial. The study results can provide policy references for the scientific management and long-term strategic planning of land resources in the CLB.

Impacts of low-carbon city pilot policy on ecological well-being performance across Chinese cities: A spatial difference-in-difference analysis

Attaining a win-win goal among ecological conservation and well-being development is an inevitable requirement for China's transition towards low-carbon cities. Using a dataset of China's 277 cities during 2007-2021, this paper explores the local-neighbor impacts of the Low-Carbon City Pilot (LCP) policy on ecological well-being performance (EWP) by adopting the spatial difference-in-difference (SDID) approach. Then, explaining its action mechanism from a green lifestyle perspective. The results show that: (1) the quantity of sample cities with excellent EWP levels is on an upward trend, rising from 13 in 2007 to 76 in 2021, an increase of 22.75%; (2) LCP policy facilitates the growth of EWP in local cities and exerts notable spatial spillover effects, enhancing EWP in neighboring cities within 1300 km; (3) Improving residents’ green consumption awareness is an effective mechanism for LCP policy to enhance EWP of local and surrounding cities; (4) The local-neighbor effects of LCP on EWP are more significant in non-resource, government innovation-preferring and large cities. These results can offer valuable insights for policymakers in formulating environmental strategies that reconcile ecological environment with well-being growth.

A Suite of Pathogens Detected in Ticks Sampled From Wildlife Hosts in Central Kenya

ABSTRACTOpportunistic sampling of ticks from animals during veterinary treatment offers important insights about wildlife exposure to pathogens. Here, we report pathogens and other tick‐borne organisms detected in ticks sampled from 10 animal species in and near Laikipia County, Kenya, in 2014–2016. Pathogen analysis was performed using a combination of Fluidigm PCR and Illumina sequencing. We detected a suite of important pathogens affecting human and domestic and wild animal health, including Anaplasma marginale, Rickettsia africae and Theileria parva. These findings expand our limited understanding of wildlife exposure to tick‐borne pathogens and potential ramifications for animal health and conservation.

From source to lake: Multi‒taxon alpha and beta diversity patterns along a river above 4500 ​m AMSL on the Qinghai‒Tibetan Plateau

Understanding the distribution of species is highly important for optimizing future conservation priorities and strategies at the regional scale. Relatively little attention has been given to multi-taxon aquatic biota in extreme alpine environments. We examined the spatial and temporal patterns of alpha and beta diversity, site-specific contributions to beta diversity and assembly mechanisms of four taxonomic groups (fishes, macroinvertebrates, zooplankton and phytoplankton) from the source to the estuary of the Za'gya Zangbo River above 4500 ​m AMSL (above mean sea level) on the northern Qinghai-Tibetan (Q–T) Plateau. A total of 4 fish species, 45 macroinvertebrate taxa, 17 zooplankton taxa and 56 phytoplankton taxa were found in the study area. No consistent patterns in taxonomic richness were observed across taxa from upstream to estuary. The fish communities had the lowest dissimilarity between communities, the phytoplankton community had the highest dissimilarity in the dry season, and the macroinvertebrate community had the highest dissimilarity in the wet season. The relative importance of the turnover and nestedness components varied considerably across taxa and along spatial gradients. The diversity patterns of macroinvertebrate, zooplankton and phytoplankton communities were significantly correlated with several environmental factors, whereas only the beta diversity of fish was correlated with altitude. Stochastic processes dominated in shaping the macroinvertebrate communities whereas deterministic processes dominated the assembly of the phytoplankton communities. Weak congruence of diversity patterns across taxonomic groups suggested that biological groups cannot serve as reliable surrogates for one another and that multiple biological groups should be included in the biomonitoring of high-altitude rivers on the Q‒T Plateau. The relatively unique species in the upstream area and estuary of the Za'gya Zangbo River harbor should receive more attention in future conservation and management schemes.

GASTROINTESTINAL TRACT ADENOCARCINOMA IDENTIFIED IN CAPTIVE GILA MONSTERS (HELODERMA SUSPECTUM) IN A NORTH AMERICAN ZOO, 1997-2023.

Neoplasia in the Gila monster (Heloderma suspectum) is not commonly investigated, and literature regarding the prevalence and type of neoplasms that affect this species is sparse. Gastrointestinal tract adenocarcinoma (GTA) in particular has only been reported twice in Gila monsters, once in the small intestine and once in the colon. In this case series, 50% (7/14) of the Gila monsters presented to the pathology service at Smithsonian's National Zoo and Conservation Biology Institute (SNZCBI) over the span of 26 yr (1997-2023) were found to have intestinal and/or colonic adenocarcinoma. The frequency of GTA reported in this collection likely represents a multifactorial etiology including geriatric age of specimens, chronic inflammation, gastrointestinal tract infection, and/or increased cognizance of the disease because of previous reports within the collection. An increased awareness of GTA in this species may lead to improved recognition of the disease.

Tracking genetic and phylogenetic diversity across Brazilian ecoregions: A molecular ecology approach using marine decapod crustaceans

Abstract Genetic diversity is shaped by life history traits and environmental factors across the marine ecoregions of the world (MEOW), a condition that serves as a valuable framework to enhance our understanding of gene flow processes and identifying priority conservation centers among populations in different regions. We investigated the genetic and phylogenetic diversity of 13 decapod crustacean species distributed across the marine ecoregions of Brazil. We hypothesized that ecoregions act as barriers to gene flow, creating distinct population structures and varying genetic diversity levels. We examined how habitat type, bathymetry, geographical distribution, and larval development affect genetic diversity. Mitochondrial markers from 13 species of the four major decapod groups (Anomura, Brachyura, Caridea, and Penaeoidea) were analyzed using nucleotide diversity, haplotype networks, pairwise FST, and linear mixed-effects models (LMER). Results show no significant genetic structuring among ecoregions. Genetic diversity correlates with habitat type (P < 0.05), with species from less impacted areas, especially intertidal zones like rocky shores and estuaries, displaying higher diversity. Phylogenetic diversity (PD) and species richness (SR) varied, with the highest PD in eastern Brazil and the highest SR in southeastern Brazil. Intertidal zones showed the highest genetic diversity, likely due to their complex microhabitats and environmental variability. Our findings indicate that environmental and geographical barriers defined by the ecoregions do not significantly impede genetic connectivity among decapod crustaceans, which suggests that high dispersal potential of larval stages facilitates genetic flow across ecoregions. The results underscore the need for conservation strategies that consider the high genetic connectivity and diversity of marine species across broad spatial scales.

Spatial and temporal dynamics of livestock grazing intensity in the Selinco region: Towards sustainable grassland management

Grazing pressure in the Selinco region exhibits significant complexity and variability. To optimize sustainable grassland management in the region, understanding the spatial and temporal dynamics of grazing intensity is crucial. Previous studies have shown the substantial potential of machine learning algorithms in accurately modeling grazing intensity. Consequently, this study predicted grazing intensity for the period 2001–2020 on a 500 × 500 m grid, using variables such as climate, topography, vegetation, anthropogenic disturbances, water sources, and roads as inputs to the machine learning model, with livestock density at the township level in suitable grazing areas as the output variable. Subsequently, the spatial and temporal dynamics of grazing intensity from 2001 to 2020 were synthesized and analyzed. Of these, the Support Vector Machine Regression (SVMR) model exhibited the best fit, with a mean absolute error (MAE) of just 0.068 SU/km2 and a coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.98. The results indicate that grazing intensity shows a spatial pattern of being high in the southeast and low in the northwest, with significant regional differences. The average annual trend declined by −0.006/10a, indicating a continuous downward trend; however, a substantial increase is anticipated in the future, as suggested by a mean Hurst index value of 0.39. Additionally, the grazing pattern in the northern region, including the Qiangtang Nature Reserve, remains relatively stable. However, it is worth noting that the southeastern region exhibited a significant exacerbation of grazing patterns during 2015–2020, necessitating focused attention. These findings are crucial for making informed decisions regarding grassland-livestock balance management and can aid in optimizing resource allocation and ecological conservation strategies. Future research will utilize higher resolution geographic data to enhance the accuracy and efficiency of grazing intensity models.

Can Green Credit Policies Promote Fund Investment? Evidence from China

Fund investment, as a type of financial investment in the capital market, is designed to attract more social capital towards the green environmental protection sector and foster a harmonious relationship between economic development, social advancement, and ecological conservation. Therefore, as a significant policy instrument, will implementing the green credit policy impact the investment preferences of fund investors? How does it influence their participation in the market? This study utilizes microdata from Chinese Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share-listed companies from 2004 to 2020 to establish a DID model based on the Green Credit Guidelines introduced in 2012. The research delves into the effects of the green credit policy on fund investment and its underlying mechanisms. The green credit policy was found to favor the entry of fund investment, and the results are still valid after a series of robustness tests. The attraction effect of the green credit policy on investors is more evident in non-state-owned enterprises, small and micro enterprises, and non-green industries. Green credit policy can positively influence investor entry through the financing constraint effect and productivity effect. The study theoretically supplements the literature in the field of evaluating the effect of the green credit policy, and practically provides practical guidance and inspiration for strengthening the synergy of the government, banks, and enterprises in implementing green credit policy, promoting industrial transformation, and upgrading, and realizing high-quality economic development.

Conservation priorities for Indian biodiversity: spatiotemporal patterns, policy efficacy, and future outlook

Conservation priorities for Indian biodiversity: spatiotemporal patterns, policy efficacy, and future outlook

Observing changes of fish community in a semi-arid subtropical coastal lagoon subject to ecological conservation

El Soldado is a semi-arid subtropical coastal lagoon subject to ecological conservation in the Gulf of California, where we reviewed the changes in the fish community structure before (1972; 1978–79; 1990–92) and after (cycle 1, 2018–2019; cycle 2, 2019–2020) the decree as a protected area, and we determined spatio-temporal changes between two consecutive annual cycles. We conducted monthly fish sampling cycles 1 and 2 with a small trawl net at three sites, where water and sediment variables were recorded, and drift macroalgae biomass was estimated. Results showed 99 fish species have been recorded in previous studies, and our study added 11 species. The fish assemblage (2018–2020) comprised 34 marine species and nine of them were dominant in both cycles. In general, higher fish abundance, richness, and diversity were observed in the cycle 1. Spatial changes, in both cycles, showed higher fish abundance, richness, and diversity in the innermost area of the lagoon, characterized by silty sediment and higher drift macroalgae biomass. Temporal changes showed higher fish abundance, richness, and diversity in summer-autumn during cycle 1, while during cycle 2, the higher values were in winter-autumn, mainly associated with seasonal variations in water temperature and the biogeographic affinity of fish species, but were also attributed to changes in the density of species classified as dominant. There was notable a drastic decrease of fish richness, diversity, and density during summer in cycle 2, which was attributed to be a warmer year. El Soldado fish community showed changes before and after the decree as a protected area, but also in the contiguous cycles. These changes include the addition of species, the prevalence of common species over 48 years, and the current dominant species that belong to indicator groups, which exhibit effectiveness in the conservation of this ecosystem.

Multiple cranial pathologies in spotted hyaenas, Crocuta crocuta

Spotted hyaenas are generally considered to have resilience against injuries and pathogens, and the incidence of pathologies is scarcely reported. However, it is important for ecological studies and conservation efforts to have a clear overview of the physical threats that can occur in the life of a species. The present paper describes and interprets several osteopathologies in the crania of the spotted hyaena, Crocuta crocuta, in the collections of the Royal Museum for Central Africa (RMCA) in Tervuren, Belgium. Of the fifty-two specimens from central Africa examined, twenty-three (i.e., 44 %) of them showed evidence of pathologies, including injuries, congenital pathologies, and disease. Selected specimens were scanned using Computed Tomography and their internal cranial structures were studied. Here we describe and discuss the different types of pathologies evident in the crania of these hyaenas: craniosynostosis, microtia, osteomyelitis and periodontitis, as well as a trauma indicated by cranial fractures, dental fractures, and bite puncture marks. Some pathologies reported herein are novel for hyaenas, and there are some instances of multiple pathologies in the same individual. Implications of these pathologies, including the social interactions of hyenas, conservational threats, as well as biased data sampling, are highlighted. This study improves our knowledge of disease and trauma experienced by hyaenids, and provides a better understanding of their biology, and the potential threats faced by these iconic animals. This case study offers a comparative base for similar studies in other carnivorans, to clarify the pathological background of apex predators.

Incorporating effects of habitat patches into species distribution models

Abstract Species distribution models (SDMs) are algorithms designed to infer the distribution of species using environmental and biotic variables and have become an important tool for ecologists and conservation biologists seeking to understand the implications of environmental change. Global datasets of environmental variables at resolutions of a few metres are increasingly available. SDMs fitted using such high‐resolution data allow researchers to investigate how local factors affect species occurrences at unprecedented fine spatial scales. As the spatial resolution of SDMs increases, we see a critical need to consider the characteristics of habitat types within or around raster pixels. In particular, we argue that the effects of habitat patches (EHPs, including habitat area, habitat configuration, and habitat diversity), measured focusing on patches or landscapes, have yet to be fully realized in SDMs. We provide guidelines to incorporate EHPs in SDMs. We explain why this development is important, describe approaches to properly conduct such analyses, and discuss pitfalls we foresee in testing EHPs. Synthesis. Ensuring that SDMs incorporating EHPs are properly designed will be key to increasing model predictive performance and to understanding which environmental factors influence the distribution of species at fine spatial scales. At a crucial time for nature conservation, we foresee that this will be a key step forward to understanding and protecting biodiversity.

Semiochemical-baited traps as a new method supplementing light traps for faunistic and ecological studies of Macroheterocera (Lepidoptera)

Attractivity and selectivity of two types of traps with synthetic, long-lasting, bisexual generic attractants were compared to conventional light traps to promote their wider use, as an easy-to-use standardised method for entomology. The targeted herbivorous Macroheterocera species playing important role in ecosystems as food source for higher trophic levels (e.g. predatory arthropods, birds and mammals), while other hand they can cause significant economic loss in agriculture. Data on their population dynamic and composition of their assemblages are necessary for both nature conservation and efficient pest management. Light- and semiochemical-baited traps with semisynthetic- (SBL = the acronym stands for semisynthetic bisexual lure) and synthetic lures (FLO = the acronym stands for floral lure of synthetic floral compounds) were used in species rich area of West Ukraine, and in all 10,926 lepidopterans trapped were identified. The attractivity of the light trap was highest with 252 species caught, while traps with semiochemicals captured 132 species including 28 exclusively caught only by them. The qualitative selectivity of light vs. semiochemical-baited traps differed considering both taxa and habitat preferences in such a way that they completed each-other. Differences in quantitative selectivity were also proved even in case of pest species. The parameters of methods varied depending on the phenological phases of the studied assemblages. Considering the revealed attractivity and selectivity, the parallel use of the two methods can offer improved reliable data for conservation biology and pest management.

Precipitation and temperature primarily determine the reptile distributions in China

Reptiles make up one‐third of tetrapods, however they are often omitted from global conservation analyses. Understanding the determinants of reptile distribution is the foundation for reptile conservation research. We assembled a dataset on the distribution of 231 reptile species (nearly 50% of recorded species in China). We then investigated the association of species range filling (the proportion of observed ranges compared to species potential climate distributions) with climate, range size, topography and human activity, using three regression methods. At the species level, we found the most primary factors influencing the recent distribution pattern of reptiles across China were the mean annual precipitation (MAP) and the mean annual temperature (MAT). In contrast, human activity came in last. Similarly, at a spatial level, MAP and MAT were still the most important factors. Geographically, the south and east of China support the highest reptile diversity, partially due to high precipitation. Contrary to the prevailing notion that reptile distributions are primarily shaped by human activities, our study re‐emphasizes the importance of climate in determining reptile distribution. It accentuates the necessity of integrating climate variables into future animal conservation strategies in China. Our findings also offer valuable insights for informing conservation practices, including the site planning of natural reserves and national parks, as well as monitoring of environmental factors in protected areas.

Assessing abundance-suitability models to prioritize conservation areas for the dwarf caimans in South America.

Species-environment relationships have been extensively explored through species distribution models (SDM) and species abundance models (SAM), which have become key components to understand the spatial ecology and population dynamics directed at biodiversity conservation. Nonetheless, within the internal structure of species' ranges, habitat suitability and species abundance do not always show similar patterns, and using information derived from either SDM or SAM could be incomplete and mislead conservation efforts. We gauged support for the abundance-suitability relationship and used the combined information to prioritize the conservation of South American dwarf caimans (Paleosuchus palpebrosus and P. trigonatus). We used 7 environmental predictor sets (surface water, human impact, topography, precipitation, temperature, dynamic habitat indices, soil temperature), 2 regressions methods (Generalized Linear Models-GLM, Generalized Additive Models-GAM), and 4 parametric distributions (Binomial, Poisson, Negative binomial, Gamma) to develop distribution and abundance models. We used the best predictive models to define four categories (low, medium, high, very high) to plan species conservation. The best distribution and abundance models for both Paleosuchus species included a combination of all predictor sets, except for the best abundance model for P. trigonatus which incorporated only temperature, precipitation, surface water, human impact, and topography. We found non-consistent and low explanatory power of environmental suitability to predict abundance which aligns with previous studies relating SDM-SAM. We extracted the most relevant information from each optimal SDM and SAM and created a consensus model (2,790,583 km2) that we categorized as low (39.6%), medium (42.7%), high (14.9%), and very high (2.8%) conservation priorities. We identified 279,338 km2 where conservation must be critically prioritized and only 29% of these areas are under protection. We concluded that optimal models from correlative methods can be used to provide a systematic prioritization scheme to promote conservation and as surrogates to generate insights for quantifying ecological patterns.

Vegetation Cover Change in the Loess Plateau: Patterns, Driving Factors, and Impacts

This paper reviews the changes in vegetation cover in the Loess Plateau, focusing on patterns, driving factors, and impacts. Over recent decades, significant improvements in vegetation cover have been observed, primarily due to large-scale ecological restoration projects and natural climate variability. Key drivers include precipitation, temperature, land use changes, and human activities such as reforestation. These changes have important ecological, socio-economic, and hydrological implications, including reduced soil erosion, improved biodiversity, and potential trade-offs with water availability. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for sustainable land management and ecological conservation in the region.

Living estuarine shorelines as nature-based green engineering for coastal stabilization: A scientometric analysis

Natural estuarine wetland shorelines play a crucial role in coastal stabilization and preserving ecological security patterns. The effectiveness of estuarine shoreline engineering in reducing coastal erosion and maintaining the stability of ecosystem structures and functions is tightly linked to their types and structures. Although the living estuarine shorelines have received increasing attention, there have been few systematic literature reviews on the development process, research hotspots and future trends in this field. Here we summarized the literatures, and analyzed them in terms of annual publications, subject categories, co-cited journals, countries, institutions, authors, references, and keywords based on OriginPro, VOSviewer, and CiteSpace softwares. Results showed that the studies on living estuarine shorelines have experienced a rapid development phase since 2004, which is mainly categorized into Environmental Sciences and Oceanography, and the research institutions and scholars are mainly from the USA and China. The effects of human activities and climate change on the structures and functions of estuarine ecosystems are the dominant topics. Furthermore, the nature-based management solutions have been proposed to improve the functions and services of estuarine ecosystems. Currently, the habitats of estuarine wetlands worldwide have undergone varying degrees of degradation, therefore, the ecological conservation and restoration of estuarine shorelines urgently require the active participation of the public. It is highly important to integrate multi-disciplinary and multi-technology approaches to construct nature-based, more resilient, multi-service synergistic, and composite living shorelines in coastal zones. The findings of this research can provide scientific guidelines for the adaptive management and conservation of estuarine wetlands.

Application of microsatellites in population genetic studies of reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) (review)

Over a few past decades, theoretical, analytical, and methodological advances in genetics have revolutionized population genetic research, providing a better understanding of evolutionary processes and the history of populations and species. Methodologically, this progress is largely due to the invention of polymerase chain reaction technology and the introduction of microsatellite DNA markers. This review discusses trends in the use of microsatellite markers as effective tools for solving a wide range of issues in population genetics, conservation and evolutionary biology of the only species of the genus Rangifer – reindeer. Based on the analysis of both experimental and review publications (78 sources) of the scientific teams of the Russian Federation, Canada, the United States of America, Ireland, Japan, China, Norway the first works on the successful amplification of reindeer microsatellites have been summarized. There has been demonstrated the significance of the data of markers for studying intra- and inter-population diversity, differentiation, genetic relationships, the impact of anthropogenic factors on genetic diversity and genetic isolation of populations, as well as for reconstructing the evolutionary history of the various reindeer forms.

Relationship between Urban Forest Fragmentation and Urban Shrinkage in China Differentiated by Moisture and Altitude

Forest fragmentation and urban shrinkage have become the focus of attention in global ecological conservation, with the goal of achieving sustainable development. However, few studies have been concerned with urban forest patterns in shrinking cities. It is necessary to explore whether the loss of the population will mitigate urban forest degradation. Thus, in this study, 195 shrinking cities were identified based on demographic datasets to characterize the spatiotemporal patterns of urban forests in China against a depopulation background. To illustrate the explicit spatial evolution of urban forests in shrinking cities in China, in this study, we reclassified land-use products and determined the annual spatial variations from 2000 to 2022 using area-weighted centroids and landscape pattern indexes. The effects of different climatic and topographical conditions on the spatiotemporal variations in the urban forest patterns against population shrinkage were discussed. The results demonstrated that the forest coverage rate in the shrinking cities of China increased from 40.05 to 40.47% with a generally southwestern orientation, and the most frequent decrease appeared from 2010 to 2015. Except for the temperate humid and sub-humid Northeast China, with plains and hills, all geographical sub-regions of the shrinking cities exhibited growing urban forests. Relatively stable movement direction dynamics and dramatic area changes in climatic sub-regions with large forest coverage were observed. The urban forest centroids of shrinking cities at a lower elevation exhibited more fluctuating changes in direction. The urban forests in the shrinking cities of China were slightly fragmented, and this weakened condition was identified via the decelerating fragmentation. The urban forests of the shrinking cities in the warm-temperate, humid, and sub-humid North China and basin regions exhibited the most pattern variations. Therefore, it is emphasized that the monitoring of policy implementation is essential due to the time lag of national policies in shrinking cities, especially within humid and low-altitude regions. This research concludes that the mitigation of urban deforestation in the shrinking cities of China is greatly varied according to moisture and altitude and sheds light on the effects of the population density from a new perspective, providing support for urban forest management and improvements in the quality of residents’ lives.