Consequences Of Accident Scenarios Research Articles

Towards system-theoretic risk management for maritime transportation systems: A case study of the yangtze river estuary

This paper presents a novel framework for system-theoretic risk management of maritime transportation systems (MTS) based on the principles of formal safety assessment. The proposed framework comprises four essential steps: (1) risk identification: identifying accident scenarios and associated risk-influencing factors in the MTS through text mining of maritime accident investigation reports; (2) risk analysis: determining the probabilities and consequences of accident scenarios in the MTS using Bayesian network modeling; (3) risk evaluation: assessing the risks of various accident scenarios and the comprehensive risk of the MTS, and comparing the results with risk acceptance criteria to make informed decisions; and (4) risk treatment: proposing effective risk control options (RCOs) for accident scenarios and the comprehensive risk of the MTS by incorporating expert judgment, fuzzy sets, and Bayesian network modeling. To demonstrate the applicability of the proposed framework, the risk management of the Yangtze River Estuary is presented as a case study. By adopting a comprehensive approach to risk management, stakeholders gain a more holistic view of risk and achieve more effective decision-making processes for RCOs. The framework may help improve the safety and security of maritime operations, enhance the efficiency and competitiveness of the industry.

Safety issues of the liquefaction, storage and transportation of liquid hydrogen: An analysis of incidents and HAZIDS

The objectives of the IDEALHY project, which receives funding from the European Union's 7th Framework Programme (FP7/2007–2013) for the Fuel Cells and Hydrogen Joint Technology Initiative under grant agreement No. 278177, are to design a novel process that will significantly increase the efficiency of hydrogen liquefaction and be capable of delivering liquid hydrogen at a rate that is an order of magnitude greater than current plants. The liquid hydrogen could then be delivered to refueling stations in road tankers. This paper describes the scope of the safety work within IDEALHY, focussing in particular on two HAZID exercises and a review of incidents. In particular, an analysis of the causes and consequences of accident scenarios is presented.

A method to assess multi-modal Hazmat transport security vulnerabilities: Hazmat transport SVA

The suggested Hazmat transport Security Vulnerability Assessment (SVA) methodology presents a user-friendly approach to determine relative security risk levels of the different modes of hazardous freight transport (i.e., road, railway, inland waterways and pipeline transportation). First, transport routes are divided into smaller route segments. Second, likelihood scores of security-related accidents in which dangerous freight is involved and possibly causing fatalities in the surrounding population, are determined per route segment. Third, the consequences of accident scenarios (using reference products and spatial plans) are calculated in terms of the number of people within the 1% lethality distance of the accident center. Fourth, using these likelihood scores and consequence figures, transport route security risk levels are determined. Fifth, transshipment risks are considered for determining the final transport route security risk levels. This leads to a multi-modal user-friendly security threat assessment tool which can be used by policy makers as well as by industrialists (shippers or Logistics Service Providers). The generic method allows for comparing the security risk levels of the different route segments and routes of transportation of hazardous goods and for taking countermeasures from a uni-modal as well as from a multi-modal perspective.

Transportation Risk ANalysis tool for hazardous Substances (TRANS) – A user-friendly, semi-quantitative multi-mode hazmat transport route safety risk estimation methodology for Flanders

The paper develops a methodology for assessing the relative risk levels in moving hazardous materials by various transport modes. Transportation Risk ANalysis tool for hazardous Substances (TRANS) divides routes into smaller segments using multi-criteria analysis and likelihood scores of accidents in which dangerous cargoes are involved possibly causing fatalities. The consequences of accident scenarios are calculated in terms of the number of people within 1% of the lethal distance from the accident centre. This provides a user-friendly, semi-quantitative risk analysis tool. The generic method allows for comparing the risk levels of the segments of routes used in the transportation of hazardous goods.