Towards system-theoretic risk management for maritime transportation systems: A case study of the yangtze river estuary

Abstract

This paper presents a novel framework for system-theoretic risk management of maritime transportation systems (MTS) based on the principles of formal safety assessment. The proposed framework comprises four essential steps: (1) risk identification: identifying accident scenarios and associated risk-influencing factors in the MTS through text mining of maritime accident investigation reports; (2) risk analysis: determining the probabilities and consequences of accident scenarios in the MTS using Bayesian network modeling; (3) risk evaluation: assessing the risks of various accident scenarios and the comprehensive risk of the MTS, and comparing the results with risk acceptance criteria to make informed decisions; and (4) risk treatment: proposing effective risk control options (RCOs) for accident scenarios and the comprehensive risk of the MTS by incorporating expert judgment, fuzzy sets, and Bayesian network modeling. To demonstrate the applicability of the proposed framework, the risk management of the Yangtze River Estuary is presented as a case study. By adopting a comprehensive approach to risk management, stakeholders gain a more holistic view of risk and achieve more effective decision-making processes for RCOs. The framework may help improve the safety and security of maritime operations, enhance the efficiency and competitiveness of the industry.