This article proposes the concept of two-dimensional picture fuzzy sets (TDPFS). This new framework extends the original picture fuzzy sets (PFS) by incorporating a confidence level to evaluate expert opinions using probability. This innovation facilitates the stratification and dimensionality reduction of large-scale expert groups, while also offering a new perspective for examining group decision-making problems. This article determines the weights of each subgroup by considering the confidence level of expert evaluation, the cohesion of the subgroups, and the size of the subgroups. This approach simplifies the decision-making process by transforming the originally complex large-scale group decision-making problem into a traditional decision-making problem. Finally, the traditional consensus reaching process (CRP) ensures that experts meet specific consensus requirements in decision-making. To verify the feasibility and practicality of the framework in practical applications, we applied it to the selection of carbon emission reduction paths and alternatives in China’s iron and steel industry. This practice not only demonstrates the theoretical value of our research results but also highlights its potential in practical operations