Conjunctive Analysis Of Case Configurations Research Articles

Suspicious preoperational activities and law enforcement interdiction of terrorist plots

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to provide a metric for validating the Nationwide Suspicious Activity Reporting (SAR) Initiative’s (NSI) sixteen-category instrument, which is designed to guide law enforcement in the collection and analysis of suspicious behaviors preceding serious crimes, including terrorist attacks.Design/methodology/approachData on suspicious preoperational activities and terrorism incident outcomes in the USA between 1972 and 2013 come from the American Terrorism Study (ATS). Using a mixed-method approach, the authors conduct descriptive and multivariate analyses to examine the frequencies of the least and most prevalent suspicious activities (or SAR indicators) and how they predict the likelihood of terrorism prevention. In addition, the authors contextualize how configurations of SAR indicators are associated with the successful thwarting of terrorism incidents by law enforcement using an analytical method known as conjunctive analysis of case configurations (CACC).FindingsThe study reveals several key findings. First, certain behaviors categorized as suspicious, such as making threats, occur more frequently than others. Second, making threats, conducting surveillance and terrorist recruitment/financing predict law enforcement interdiction in terrorism plots, while misrepresentation (or the manufacturing and use of false documents) is more associated with terrorist success. Third, prevalent SAR indicators operate differently in the context of various combinations of suspicious activities to shape the likelihood for law enforcement interdiction.Research limitations/implicationsThe current study’s findings may not be generalizable to other forms of violent extremism and terrorism outside of the USA.Practical implicationsThis study illuminates opportunities for the NSI to provide law enforcement with the necessary tools to reduce terrorism risk and prevent future attacks.Originality/valueTo our knowledge, no scholarly work to date has assessed how observable behavioral indicators of suspicious preoperational activities affect the outcomes of terrorist plots.

Contextual variability in biopsychosocial pathways to violent offending

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to use data from the Longitudinal Study of Violent Criminal Behavior in the USA to examine case configurations of violent behavior using a biopsychosocial framework. Specifically, the theory posits that arguably all behavior is the result of specific combinations of biopsychological (individual) and sociocultural (environmental) characteristics that are interacting within the individual. With regard to criminal and violent behavior, the theoretical assumption is that this maladaptive behavior is the result of a negative interaction between the biopsychological and sociocultural factors.Design/methodology/approachThe study design consists of secondary data analysis. A conjunctive analysis of case configurations was performed using data from the Longitudinal Survey of Violent Criminal Behavior to formally explore the tenets of Cortés and Gatti’s (1972) biopsychosocial theory.FindingsThe results suggest that there are main effects for ego strength, family problems, family incohesiveness and underachievement as they relate to offending. A possible six-way interaction was also identified within the case configurations that provides empirical support for Cortés and Gatti’s (1972) biopsychosocial theory of deviance.Originality/valueThe present study contributes to the existing biopsychosocial literature by providing insight on the contextual variability in pathways to violent offending. Specifically, the evidence provided indicates that Cortés and Gatti’s (1972) biopsychosocial theory of deviance can be extended to comparing violent and non-violent offenders. Implications for policy and practice are also discussed.

Homicide Investigations in Context: Exploring Explanations for the Divergent Impacts of Victim Race, Gender, Elderly Victims, and Firearms on Homicide Clearances

Studies examining factors influencing homicide clearances have produced consistent findings for child victims, arguments, and incident location. Conclusions have been far more varied regarding the social location of the victim and incident attributes such as firearms. Using homicides reported to the National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS) between 2008 and 2012, the current study uses Conjunctive Analysis of Case Configurations (CACC) to analyze combinations of victim and incident attributes most likely to lead to cleared homicides. In doing so, we assess the variable impacts of victim gender, race, elderly victims, and firearms across contexts to understand their inconsistent effects in the prior literature.

Enhancing Data-Driven Law Enforcement Efforts: Exploring how Risk Terrain Modeling and Conjunctive Analysis Fit in a Crime and Traffic Safety Framework

Law enforcement’s examination of vehicle crashes is often nested in the Data-Driven Approaches to Crime and Traffic Safety (DDACTS) framework which highlights the importance of hot spot analysis. To assist law enforcement efforts, this study explores how two additional spatial techniques, namely risk terrain modeling (RTM) and conjunctive analysis of case configurations (CACC), could be incorporated within the DDACTS framework. RTM was utilized to identify how the built, physical environment contributed to the risk of traffic incidents. RTM identified 6 risk factors related to the occurrence of vehicle crashes, and high-risk places were compared to hot spots on predictive accuracy. CACC was used to explore configurations likely to result in traffic incidents for the priority places. Our findings support the Theory of Risky Places and fit within a vulnerability-exposure framework, providing law enforcement with guidance for identifying places where vehicle crashes are likely to occur in the future. In addition to providing insight for law enforcement, we discuss how law enforcement can develop working partnerships with stakeholders capable of preventing and/or reducing traffic incidents, which is in line with the general DDACTS framework.

Utilizing a Risk of Crime Measure for Recidivism Research: Moving Environmental Corrections Forward

The current study expands recidivism research by developing a risk of crime (ROC) measure rooted in environmental criminology, reflecting the risk of criminal opportunities, and lending itself to environmental corrections. Data were collected from a city in the Northeast region of the United States. The ROC measure was constructed through risk terrain modeling and reflected a parolee-specific neighborhood ROC. Conjunctive analysis of case configurations was utilized to explore how individual characteristics interacted with the ROC measure. Results indicated a relationship between parolees residing in an elevated ROC neighborhood and the likelihood of recidivism. The results were discussed in relation to how environmental criminology could be further integrated into environmental corrections, accounting for physical and social characteristics of the backcloth.

It’s not so black and white: A conjunctive analysis of racial differences in incidents of prison misconduct

ABSTRACTThe current study examines racial differences in factors of prison misconduct within the Arkansas Department of Corrections. Using Conjunctive Analysis of Case Configurations, we examined racial differences in factor combinations of violent and nonviolent prison infractions. The analysis was framed using both deprivation and importation models of prison behavior. The results demonstrated racial differences in individual, situational, and environmental factor profiles, particularly within violent offenses. Further, the results partially supported both importation and deprivation models; yet, only found support for a racially-specific importation theory. Limitations and policy implications are discussed.

Spatial conjunctive analysis of (crime) case configurations: Using Monte Carlo methods for significance testing

While research has repeatedly demonstrated how spatial distributions of crime can be shaped by the presence of facilities such as bars and public transport hubs, the joint influence of different facility types has rarely been explored. Spatial conjunctive analysis of case configurations (also known as qualitative comparative analysis) offers a means to identify the combinations of facility types that are most commonly found around crime events, and has been used in a small number of studies focusing on street robbery. This study extends this limited evidence base by implementing a significance test based on the Monte Carlo method using street robbery data for Austin, Texas. The results show that some of the top-ranking facility type combinations had observed frequencies that were not significantly greater than chance expectations. The accurate identification of the highest-risk environments has important implications for crime prevention.

Identifying Patterns of Situational Clustering and Contextual Variability in Criminological Data: An Overview of Conjunctive Analysis of Case Configurations

Conjunctive analysis of case configurations (CACC) is a recent innovative approach developed by Miethe, Hart, and Regoeczi that bridges the gap between traditional quantitative- or qualitative-based studies approaches. CACC was initially designed for large sample application of exploratory and confirmative studies in criminology and criminal justice. However, as this special issue demonstrates, its application has since broadened. In this introductory article, we provide background material of conjunctive analysis by (a) presenting information on how to conduct a CACC study and (b) describing the conceptual and methodological framework surrounding this type of case comparative method. With this foundation, readers can better appreciate the distinct and unique contributions of the five pieces of CACC research making up this special issue.

Routine Activity Theory and the Likelihood of Arrest: A Replication and Extension With Conjunctive Methods

Drawve, Thomas, and Walker applied routine activity theory (RAT) to examine whether measures of offender motivation, target suitability, and guardianship influence the likelihood of an offender’s arrest in incidents of aggravated assault. The current study uses the method of conjunctive analysis of case configurations (CACC) to explore the robustness of their results across alternative analytic methods. We begin with an estimation of the basic “main-effect” model used in the original article and then perform a series of conjunctive analyses to evaluate the contextual variability within each variable in this model. The observed pattern of substantial context-specific effects in the conjunctive analysis illustrates the limitation of traditional quantitative analysis and the utility of CACC for future exploratory and confirmatory studies in evaluating RAT and other criminological research questions.

Crime in Context: Utilizing Risk Terrain Modeling and Conjunctive Analysis of Case Configurations to Explore the Dynamics of Criminogenic Behavior Settings

Risk terrain modeling (RTM) is a geospatial crime analysis tool designed to diagnose environmental risk factors for crime and identify the places where their spatial influence is collocated to produce vulnerability for illegal behavior. However, the collocation of certain risk factors’ spatial influences may result in more crimes than the collocation of a different set of risk factors’ spatial influences. Absent from existing RTM outputs and methods is a straightforward method to compare these relative interactions and their effects on crime. However, as a multivariate method for the analysis of discrete categorical data, conjunctive analysis of case configurations (CACC) can enable exploration of the interrelationships between risk factors’ spatial influences and their varying effects on crime occurrence. In this study, we incorporate RTM outputs into a CACC to explore the dynamics among certain risk factors’ spatial influences and how they create unique environmental contexts, or behavior settings, for crime at microlevel places. We find that most crime takes place within a few unique behavior settings that cover a small geographic area and, further, that some behavior settings were more influential on crime than others. Moreover, we identified particular environmental risk factors that aggravate the influence of other risk factors. We suggest that by focusing on these microlevel environmental crime contexts, police can more efficiently target their resources and further enhance place-based approaches to policing that fundamentally address environmental features that produce ideal opportunities for crime.

Using typologies of victimization worry to create strategies for reducing fear of crime

The purpose of this paper is to develop actionable strategies designed for law enforcement agencies seeking to reduce fear of crime among those living within their jurisdictions. A conjunctive analysis of case configurations is conducted on data collected from residents living in southeast Queensland (Australia) (N = 713) in order to identify context-specific typologies of victimization worry. Main effects for each component of the typologies are examined in order to identify the impact each has on reducing negative attitudes towards crime. Current findings suggest that agencies will likely reduce fear of crime among community residents the most by focusing on decreasing concerns related to the consequences of victimization. Results are consistent for both crimes against persons and property offenses.

Early childhood educators attitudes towards playful aggression among boys: Exploring the importance of situational context

ABSTRACTThe current study investigates the influence of situational context on perceptions of playful aggression. Using an online data collection instrument embedded with video vignettes showing young boys engaged in aggressive play behaviour, 36 situational profiles that are defined by the unique combinations of variables believed to influence attitudes about playful aggression were created and analysed using the conjunctive analysis of case configurations methods [Miethe, T. D., Hart, T. C., & Regoeczi, W. C. (2008). The conjunctive analysis of case configurations: An exploratory method for discrete multivariate analyses of crime data. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 24(2), 227–241]. Educators’ perceptions of playful aggression varied considerably, depending on the particular contextual profile that was observed. Significant contextual variability also exists within the groups of profiles perceived by educators’ as ‘most’ playful and ‘least’ playful. Policy implications are discussed and recommendations for future research are offered.

Unpacking the Complexity of Life Events and Desistance: An Application of Conjunctive Analysis of Case Configurations to Developmental and Life Course Criminology.

The present study applies a case-oriented method, the conjunctive analysis of case configurations (CACC), previously used in criminal event research to life course criminology. In this application, we use CACC to address whether and how “context” matters for desistance by constructing complex role configurations of life events, their timing, and their ordering and examining their influence on desistance. Longitudinal life event and official offending data are drawn from a community cohort of African American males and females. Using CACC, we focus on (1) identifying the most common role configurations of number, timing, and ordering of life events in the sample (i.e., the dominant case configurations); (2) testing main effect hypotheses of each measure; and (3) exploring potential interaction effects. The findings from the CACC are then used to inform a logistic regression model to statistically test for the identified main and interactive effects. First, the dominant case configurations are largely ones that are “off time” and “out of order.” Second, there is a main effect of dosage in that those experiencing four life events were more likely to desist than those with two life events. Finally, CACC revealed a potential three-way interaction effect among the number, timing, and ordering of life events on desistance, which was confirmed by the logistic regression analysis. CACC is a useful tool for teasing out the complex relationships inherent in life course criminological questions. Several additional life course research questions where CACC could be used are discussed.

Rape Against Adolescent and Emerging Adult Females

Increased research attention to sexual violence in recent decades has resulted in greater understanding about these crimes. This work consistently finds that younger females are at the greatest risk for sexual assault and that certain correlates are related to sexual violence. Little is known about the situational contexts in which sexual assault, particularly rape, occurs as well as possible differences between adolescent and emerging adult female victims. We analyze 2012 National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS) data using conjunctive analysis of case configurations to identify the situational contexts most commonly occurring for these age-groups for rapes reported to police. We also discuss the policy implications of our findings and how NIBRS might be used to better inform policy.

Configural Behavior Settings of Crime Event Locations

Objectives: The utility of configural behavior settings is explored as an alternative unit of analysis for place-based criminological research. Four research questions are addressed: (1) How do robberies cluster within certain behavior settings? (2) How are conclusions about robbery’s behavior settings influenced by the distance interval used to measure the proximate environment? (3) Are dominant behavior settings homogeneous across patrol districts? and (4) Is there temporal variability among dominant behavior settings? Method: Conjunctive analysis of case configurations is used to construct configural behavior settings around 453 robbery locations in Henderson, Nevada, between 2007 and 2009. Results: The major findings of this study are that (1) the majority of personal robberies occur within a small number of dominant configural behavior settings and (2) the composition of behavior settings and the proportion of incidents for which they account varies by the distance interval used to measure the proximate environment, patrol district, and time of day. Conclusions: Configural behavior settings provide an alternative unit of analysis that can be used in future place-based research to improve our understanding of criminogenic microenvironments. Replication of this study in other cities that vary in urban design would further demonstrate the merits of this approach.

Contextualizing sentencing disparities: using conjunctive analysis of case configurations to identify patterns of variability

Using national data from felony cases processed in state courts (n = 48,006), the current study investigates the nature and magnitude of contextual variability associated with sentencing outcomes. Multivariate models are first estimated to identify the main effects of various offender and offense variables on sentencing decisions. Conjunctive analysis is then used to evaluate the contextual variability of each of these main effects across all observed combinations of offender and offense attributes. Separate analyses are also conducted among states with and without mandatory sentencing guidelines to explore whether these guidelines reduce this variability across different contexts. Findings from this study and its comparative methods are discussed in terms of implications for future research on criminal sentencing and assessing the contextual variability of the main effects of particular legal and extralegal factors.

Street robbery and public bus stops: A case study of activity nodes and situational risk

Existing scholarship suggests that crime concentrates in close proximity to public bus stop locations. However, the importance of particular combinations of crime generators and attractors in the proximate environment around public bus stops has not been empirically documented. Drawing on previous environmental criminology research, the current study uses conjunctive analysis of case configurations to address questions about interpersonal violence around bus stops and other activity nodes in the proximate environment in Henderson, Nevada. Findings reveal that street robberies are highly clustered within a relatively small number of environmental contexts that are defined by specific combinations of activity nodes. They also show that bus stops are more likely than any other activity node to be found across dominant situational profiles of robbery, and that the relative risk of robbery associated with the presence/absence of bus stops varies widely on the basis of specific combinations of other activity nodes.

Situational Context of Student Bullying Victimization and Reporting Behavior: A Conjunctive Analysis of Case Configurations

Bullying victimization is a growing problem for students, parents, teachers, and school administrators. Despite existing scholarship on various aspects of school bullying, certain facets of this important social issue remain underexplored. Using a pooled sample of 6th through 12th graders (N = 16,244), the current study analyzes the situational context of school bullying victimization. Findings from a conjunctive analysis of case configurations suggest that incidents of school bullying victimization are highly contextual, with few relevant factors demonstrating a constant “main effect” across situational profiles. Analyzing the situational context of bullying provides new insight into the dynamics of bullying, which are well documented in the literature. Results are discussed in terms of their contribution to the existing research and their implications for future study and policy.

Context Matters: Violence Against Women and Reporting to Police in Rural, Suburban and Urban Areas

Despite plentiful efforts to identify perpetrator, victim, and incident characteristics correlated with reporting violence against women to police, few studies have addressed the contexts that shape such reporting. Even fewer have examined variations in these contexts across geographic areas. Drawing upon National Crime Victimization Survey data from 1992 through 2009, this paper uses conjunctive analysis of case configurations to identify and investigate the dominant situational contexts of reporting of violence against women to police across rural, suburban, and urban areas. Our findings show that context matters and the importance of incident, perpetrator, and victim characteristics vary across geographic areas.

An investigation of reporting violence to the police: A focus on Hispanic victims

Using conjunctive analysis of case configurations and the National Crime Victimization Survey this research explores the situational contexts of violence against Hispanics most and least often reported to the police and compares situational contexts of violence reported to the police among Hispanic, non-Hispanic White and non-Hispanic Black victims. Results indicate that Hispanic victimization most often reported varies greatly across situational context. Almost all violence reported involves a female victim, and almost all that is reported infrequently involves a never-married, uninjured male victim. Beyond those patterns, the role of all other situational factors is contingent on the specific situational context. Findings reveal wide-spread differences in situational contexts associated with the reporting of violent victimization against Hispanics, non-Hispanic Whites and non-Hispanic Blacks. Future research should continue to focus on Hispanics, with a focus on with-in group differences and longitudinal research.