Summary The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) is a nonpartisan federal agency that, aligned with its mission to support the U.S. Congressional budget process, frequently analyzes policies affecting health care providers’ payment rates or their costs of providing care. Such policies can directly affect providers’ revenues by changing the administered prices for services covered by Medicare or by affecting the negotiated prices paid to providers by commercial insurers. CBO does not make policy recommendations. Rather, the agency’s role is to produce independent analyses of policy approaches and examine their implications for the federal budget and other related outcomes. Here, the authors describe a September 2022 report that was prepared on the basis of a congressional request. The agency reviewed three families of policies that are frequently mentioned as solutions for the growth in the negotiated prices paid in commercial plans: promoting competition among providers, promoting price transparency, and capping the level or growth rate of prices. The effects on prices expected within the first 10 years for each of the approaches considered would range from very small reductions if the price transparency policies were adopted (0.1%–1.0%) to small reductions if the competition policies were adopted (more than 1.0%–3.0%) and moderate (more than 3.0%–5.0%) to large (more than 5.0%) reductions if both the level and growth of prices were capped. Those estimates, although uncertain, represent CBO’s best assessments of the effects of the policies using evidence from the research literature and the most recently available data. CBO projects that, under current law, commercial insurers would pay $1.5 trillion in claims from hospitals and physicians in 2032. If hospital and physician prices fell by 1%, premiums for commercial health insurance plans could be reduced by a total of $13 billion in that year. Reductions in premiums in turn would reduce the federal budget deficit by increasing tax revenues (because the amount of premiums excluded from taxable income would be lower) and by reducing subsidies for health insurance for the self-employed and people eligible for subsidies under the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act. As a result, the federal government’s subsidies for commercial health insurance premiums would be reduced by $4.8 billion in 2032 or 0.2% of the budget deficit projected for that year under current law. The authors did not project the effects of the policies on outcomes other than prices, premiums, and the federal budget — such as access to care, quality of care, and providers’ costs — because of limited and conflicting evidence and because the policies’ effects on prices were generally small. CBO recently issued a call for more research on the effects of policies significantly affecting providers’ revenues on other outcomes that would help the agency better analyze the effect of related policies in the future.
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