Conflict In Sub-Saharan Africa Research Articles

Conflict and its relationship to climate variability in Sub-Saharan Africa

Deviations in rainfall duration and timing are expected to have wide-ranging impacts for people in affected areas. One of these impacts is the potential for increased levels of conflict and accordingly, researchers are examining the relationship between climate variability and conflict. Thus far, there is a lack of consensus on the direction of this relationship. We contribute to the climate variability and conflict literature by incorporating Markov transitional probabilities into panel logit models to analyze how monthly deviations in rainfall affect the likelihood that a grid cell transitions to an above average level of conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa. To control for differences in seasons across the continent, we model this relationship for each of the regions of Sub-Saharan Africa separately – East, Central, West, and Southern. We find significant seasonal and regional effects between rainfall and the probability that a grid cell transitions from a state of peace to a state of conflict. In particular, above average rainfall is associated with a higher likelihood of transitioning into conflict during the dry season. Further, each region has specific months—primarily those associated with prime crop harvest periods—where variations in rainfall significantly influence conflict. We also find regional variations in the linkage between rainfall and conflict type related to the types of conflict that predominate in particular regions of Sub- Saharan Africa. These findings are important for policymakers because they suggest additional law enforcement and/or peacekeeping resources may be needed in times of above average rainfall. Policies that provide financial support for farmers or other sectors, such as mining, that are impacted by rainfall patterns may also be a useful strategy for conflict mitigation.

STATE-BUILDING AND NON-STATE CONFLICTS IN AFRICA

Contemporary state building intervention in weak states is based on the assumption that once a capable state is instituted, it will be able to ensure peace. Extant literature on state capacity and civil war onset tends to confirm this assumption. However, the relation between state capacity and the onset of non-state conflict is not adequately examined in this literature. This article, which is based on findings from research undertaken by the author at the African Leadership Centre, aims to extend the existing knowledge on state capacity and civil conflict by examining the relation between state capacity and non-state conflict in subSaharan Africa using mixed methodological approaches. A statistical analysis of the correlation between three aspects of state capacity and non-state conflict is supplemented with a detailed qualitative analysis of selected states that experience non-state conflicts and those that did not. State capacity is dissected into state effectiveness, legitimacy and monopoly of the means of coercion. The result reveals that the legitimacy and effectiveness of the state are negatively correlated with nonstate conflicts in a statistically significant way. However, the qualitative analysis indicates that the role of state capacity in reducing non-state conflicts should not be over-stated. The occurrence or absence of nonstate conflicts is influenced by the interplay of multi-faceted factors related to the level of resource scarcity, the strength of customary dispute resolution mechanisms, patterns of intercommunity interaction, nature of state policies and political actors' stake in a conflict.

The Economic Consequences of Conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa has been marred by conflicts during the past several decades. While the intensity of conflicts in recent years is lower than that observed in the 1990s, the region remains prone to conflicts, with around 30 percent of the countries affected in 2019. In addition to immeasurable human suffering, conflicts impose large economic costs. On average, annual growth in countries in intense conflicts is about 2.5 percentage points lower, and the cumulative impact on per capita GDP increases over time. Furthermore, conflicts pose significant strains on countries’ public finances, lowering revenue, raising military spending, and shifting resources away from development and social spending.

Climate Justice and Economic Development in Sub-Saharan Africa

Economic development is not possible without increased per capita energy consumption, yet energy consumption has inherently negative impacts on the environment. This creates a problem in sub-Saharan Africa which is experiencing rapid population growth and long-term poverty. Because of this rapid population growth, even maintaining current standards of living will require increased total energy consumption, and alleviating poverty will require further energy consumption. At present, most of the world’s energy supply is met by fossil fuels and fossil fuels have been the means of development for nearly every nation that has ever reached middle-income status. However, if the nations of sub-Saharan Africa attempt to alleviate their poverty via economic growth and use fossil energy to fuel this economic growth, the world is unlikely to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement to limit climate change to less than 1.5 or 2°C. If the earth warms by more than 2°C the effects are likely to be especially dire in sub-Saharan Africa. We argue that this conflict in sub-Saharan Africa between alleviating poverty and addressing climate change is unjust, as African nations and their people have caused little of the carbon pollution that is already warming the planet, and have not benefited from this energy use. Therefore, we argue that the nations of sub-Saharan Africa, and developing nations more generally, are owed some compensation for their lost ability to use fossil fuels and that it is unjust for developed nations to simply encourage low-carbon development in Africa without such compensation.

The Economic Consequences of Conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa

The Economic Consequences of Conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa

Oil, Democracy and Internal Conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa

This study examines the effect of oil and democracy on internal conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The study employed panel regression on 14 oil rich SSA spanning from 1983-2012. The major finding reveals a U-turn from the resource curse theory because it clearly shows that, increase in oil leads to a reduction in the likelihood of internal conflict situations in SSA. The study found strong evidence on the significance of political institutions in mitigating internal conflict in SSA. However, the interaction between oil and democracy reduces the risk of internal conflict in SSA countries with the lowest and average polity scores and increase conflict in those SSA with a maximum polity score. This outcome is usually expected in the course of transition from autocracy to democracy in developing countries. Therefore, with further improvement in the political institutions, the mitigating effects of oil on internal conflict will re-emerge. Impliedly, oil in itself is a blessing and leads to the realization of peace when countries improve their political institutions. Also, the study uncovered that, while real GDP reduces the chances of internal conflicts in SSA, an increase in military expenditures tends to dampen the likelihood of peace which is a bit departure from the rentier peace theory. Therefore, the study suggests that, for peace to be maintained, SSA should reduce its expenditure on the military and increase that of social spending while improving its political system.

Borders and the Feasibility of Rebel Conflict

Contemporary spatial research on civil conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa has largely focused on border regions as spaces of limited political and economic opportunity. These studies largely adopt approaches that present borderlands as institutionally desolate regions lacking in governance, economic opportunity and political inclusion and giving rise to the feasibility of rebel conflict. While spatial analyses focus on territorially-based capabilities, such as state power projection, they typically overlook borderlands and their territorial distinctiveness with regards to rebel capabilities. This paper specifically explores the structural effects of borders on rebel capabilities and argues that Sub-Saharan Africa’s porous borders enhance the capabilities of rebels to operate in nearby territories. I empirically test this hypothesis with a zero-inflated negative binomial model and spatially disaggregated conflict events data from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project dataset mapped to the PRIO-GRID 0.5-degree x 0.5-degree geographic data structure. In total, the analysis covers 14,120 georeferenced rebel conflict events in 37 countries between 1997-2019. The results provide strong evidence that territories nearer to borders are likely to experience more battle events relative to other territories, suggesting that borderlands may enable distinct conflict-related capabilities for rebels not found elsewhere. Additionally, the model also differentiates the effects that the border may have on conflict, testing the effect of rough terrain, resources, excluded groups, and towns at the border. Of the variables tested, the results suggest that territories with border towns significantly increase the capabilities of rebels to engage in conflict and suggest a more nuanced scholarly consideration of cross-border institutions that facilitate rebel conflict.

Real exchange rate misalignment and civil conflict: Evidence from sub-Saharan Africa

Abstract Real exchange rate (RER) misalignment, which is the deviation of the actual RER from its equilibrium, occurs frequently in developing countries. In this article, we show that civil conflict in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) can be influenced by RER misalignment. To do so, we construct an RER misalignment index whose variation is driven by shocks to each country’s RER fundamentals. Based on a panel of 35 countries from 1975 to 2006, we find that RER misalignment may increase the incidence of civil conflict in sub-Saharan Africa on average. Crucially, this effect is present even when rainfall and commodity price shocks—two widely acknowledged causes of civil conflict—are controlled for. Therefore, our article suggests that RER stabilization can foster political stability in the region.

Did rainfall shocks cause civil conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa? The implications of data revisions

In their seminal paper, Miguel et al. (2004) found that negative rainfall shocks (measured as negative year-on-year rainfall growth) had caused civil conflict in sub-Saharan Africa over the 1981–1999 period. Since then, the rainfall and conflict data they used had undergone multiple revisions. We show that rainfall shocks are no longer statistically significant for civil conflict when the revised data are used. This is true whether we employ a different functional form for rainfall, extend the sample to include more recent observations, use longer lags for rainfall shocks, employ dynamic panel regression, or panel regressions that take into account of cross-sectional dependence. Using rainfall shocks as instruments for growth, we also find that growth is insignificant for civil conflict if the revised data are used. Upon further investigation, we find that updates in the rainfall and conflict data for one or a few countries may alone cause rainfall shocks to lose statistical significance.

Crop, Culture and Conflict in sub-Saharan Africa

This paper provides an empirical exploration of the “rice theory of culture” which implies that rice cultivation promotes a culture of cooperation and peace. Using fine-grained, cross sectional data geocoded at 0.5 degree latitude by 0.5 degree longitude, I investigate whether rice cultivation is associated with civil conflict in sub-Saharan Africa and whether the results are more pronounced in regions with a longer history of rice cultivation, such as West Africa. I use a wide range of variables to define conflict, using data from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED). In addition, I use agricultural data from the Spatial Production and Allocation Model (SPAM) for the year 2005. Overall, I find that areas that grow rice show lower instances of conflict. This result is even more pronounced for the West African region. The results are consistent with the predictions of the rice theory.

How do female entrepreneurs experience and cope with role conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa: case study from Ethiopia

How do female entrepreneurs experience and cope with role conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa: case study from Ethiopia

Camp settlement and communal conflict in sub-Saharan Africa

Are areas that host encamped refugees more likely to experience communal conflict, and under what conditions? Building on insights from the refugee studies literature suggesting that settling refugees in camps can intensify intercommunal tension in host communities, this article investigates the effect of refugee encampment on the occurrence of communal conflict at the subnational level in sub-Saharan Africa. It first tests for a general relationship between the overall presence and population intensity of encamped refugees and communal conflict before assessing whether this relationship is moderated by local-level characteristics, including interethnic linkages and political and economic marginalization within the host region. The basic findings show that communal conflict occurs more frequently in regions where refugees are camp-settled. Tests for interactive effects indicate that refugee camps have a significant marginal effect on conflict only if they are located in areas with politically marginalized host groups. Origin country/host region ethnic ties are shown to exert significant moderating effects. Moreover, results from an extended set of analyses show that the form of refugee settlement matters, as the presence and population intensity of self-settled refugees are related to decreases in the occurrence of communal conflict.

How do female entrepreneurs experience and cope with role conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa: case study from Ethiopia

This paper presents the experience of role conflict and consequent coping strategies used by women entrepreneurs in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) context. The data was collected from female business owners in the textile sector of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, in multiple case studies. The results indicate that sources of role conflict for women entrepreneurs in the context studied include family, business (work), social role expectations, and personal factors. We therefore argue in this study that sources of role conflict should not be limited to those stemming from family and work, the normative focus in work-family interface literature. The main practical implication is that in cases where there is a shortage of resources, efforts aimed at promoting female entrepreneurship should start by examining the source of conflict.

Land tenure reforms and persistence of land conflicts in Sub-Saharan Africa – The case of Botswana

The aim of this paper is to interrogate and analyse the nature, extent and causes of land conflicts in Sub-Saharan Africa taking Botswana as a case study. The paper is based on desk-top surveys and review of literature on land tenure reforms and conflicts in the subcontinent and beyond. Synthesis of the literature shows that, despite international support and a series of tenure reforms undertaken by various post-independence governments, land conflicts - defined as disputes, disagreements and contestations over property rights and interests – appear to have raged on unabated. In some countries, land conflicts appear to have intensified in terms of magnitude and frequency. Furthermore, intensification and growth of land conflicts has exacerbated inequalities inherited from colonial regimes as well as created new platforms for social injustices and political instability. These trends contradict the common aim of land tenure reforms: which is to promote socio-economic development and environmental sustainability on the backdrop of peace, social justice and equality.Botswana was selected as a case study because it is one of the few countries in Sub-Saharan Africa that has steadfastly introduced wide ranging and progressive land tenure reforms seeking to address land governance and inequality issues. The paper notes that although Botswana has largely succeeded in addressing land conflicts inherited from the colonial regime, it appears to have failed to adequately resolve land conflicts arising from post-colonial socio-economic and demographic transformations. The paper ends with recommendations on how future land reforms in Botswana and Sub-Saharan Africa in general may be used to minimise and finally eliminate land related conflicts.

Religious discrimination and religious armed conflict in sub-Saharan Africa: an obvious relationship?

ABSTRACT Relative deprivation theory suggests that discrimination increases the risk of violence. While religious armed conflicts have been increasing in sub-Saharan Africa, effects of religious discrimination have rarely been investigated. Using the new Religion and State dataset and other sources, this contribution investigates this question in a two-level analysis. The analysis yields three main results. First, religious discrimination has been increasing over the last 15 years but in interregional comparison sub-Saharan Africa has a low level of discrimination. Second, at the cross-country level there is a significant correlation between religious discrimination and armed conflict over religious content. Third, looking closer at four pertinent country cases (the Comoros, the Gambia, Mali and Mauritania) reveals that discrimination is probably not a direct driver of religious conflicts. High levels of discrimination are embedded in problematic state-religion relations and existing cleavages become mobilised along religious lines through transnational influences and geography.

Inequality and Ethnic Conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa

Inequality and Ethnic Conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa

Land-Use Change and Communal Conflicts in Sub-Saharan Africa

AbstractThis paper addresses the correlation between land-use changes and communal conflicts in Sub-Saharan Africa. In particular, by articulating the analysis on a 0.5° × 0.5° regular grid, we estimate the probability of a communal conflict event at time

ARMED CONFLICTS IN AFRICA: FRAGILE STATES AND RISING INSTABILITY

The first part of this article provides an overview of the development of entrenched armed conflicts in Sub Saharan Africa which continue or have resurfaced in 2016. The author (JVdB) aims to expose the underlying causes and nature of the violent contestation by drawing of the works of C. T. Call in order to break open the black box of ‘failed states’ and analyze their legitimacy, capacity and security gaps separately. In addition the author will provide short scenarios of how these conflicts are likely to evolve in the short and medium-term and which (structural) factors will dominate these trends. The second part of this article (by JR) mainly aims at presenting the basic preconditions for the activities of the major terrorist organizations in Africa. With emphasis on the importance of the north-east and north-west regions of this continent in context of terrorist threats. Hence the initial focus was put on Somalia, which as a permanent fragile state remains under the increased influence of the Jihadist organization Al Shabaab, which is an organization with a high potential for increased capacity in the coming years. Next, was sketched out the situation in Egypt, considering, in essence, the activity of the so-called Islamic State in Sinai Peninsula. In this Analysis it also pointed to the intricate internal situation in modern Libya after so-called Arab Spring and international military intervention, where, despite earlier appearances, the terrorist threat was too much positioned, mostly by comprised to the internal conflict between the different Libyan political parties. Finally, efforts were made to illustrate the current terrorist activity in the Mali area, highlighting the importance of Al Qaeda branch AQIM and the situation in Nigeria where Boko Haram group operates.

Entrepreneurship education knowledge transfer in a conflict Sub-Saharan African context

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to explore how entrepreneurship education (EE) interacts with knowledge transfer and entrepreneurial behaviour in a conflict Sub-Saharan African context.Design/methodology/approachIn-depth telephone interviews of 20 participants who benefited from EE knowledge transfer were used to document and analyse the effect of EE on their behaviours as micro-entrepreneurs in a conflict zone.FindingsThese participants exhibited rare forms of innovative behaviour, through their business skills, gained from their involvement in EE. In relation to the effect of the conflict on their entrepreneurial behaviours, it emerged that the conflict was not the major barrier to entrepreneurial intentions, it however affected how they made strategic decisions about downsizing, advertising and future business plans. Consequently, these decisions altered at different junctures because of the conflict and, therefore, defined their coping strategies.Practical implicationsThe paper advocates a policy shift towards a more collaborative sub-regional approach to tackling the underlying causes of conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa through investment in EE strategies as a spur to economic development. Central to this are a priori assumptions about economically disadvantaged populations and their symbiotic relationship with conflict, a phenomenon frequently exploited by armed groups with deviant agenda. Thus, access to employment opportunities could benefit disadvantaged populations, thereby plays a decisive role in conflict mitigation.Originality/valueThe paper provides empirical analysis integrating EE with knowledge transfer and entrepreneurial behaviour in a conflict Sub-Saharan African context. In this way, novel insights are provided that contribute to current efforts aimed at developing a robust theoretical and conceptual foundation for EE domain.

Ownership matters: Natural resources property rights and social conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa

Empirical tests of the “resource curse” thesis have provided inconclusive evidence for the claim that natural resource abundance increases the risk of social conflict. The present article argues, based on a novel political economy framework and a new data set, that it is important to analyze how states regulate the access to their natural resources to understand the interrelationship between resources and public resistance against resource extraction arrangements. We claim that international rather than state resource ownership fosters the regional protest potential and overshadows the efficiency gains that foreign investment might create. Especially the siphoning of resource rents to international owners instigates resentment among the local population. Distinguishing between private, public, domestic and international ownership arrangements, we assess the effects of natural resources control rights regimes on state repression using new GIS-based data on diamond and gold mines as well as oil and gas fields in Sub-Sahara Africa. Our multilevel analysis shows that repression as an answer to societal dissent is particularly likely in grids hosting international oil companies. Furthermore, we find that international oil firms further state repression especially under insecure property rights.