Confidence Judgments Research Articles

Confidence in reality monitoring judgments.

Confidence in reality monitoring judgments.

Depression, Race-Based Bias, and Judgments of Veracity

Abstract: Introduction: The depressive realism hypothesis suggests that depressed individuals have a more realistic perception than nondepressed. Most studies depict the effects of depressive realism on self-perceptions. However, some lie detection studies suggest the effects of depressive realism on the perception of others. Our study investigated the hypothesis that individuals with subclinical depression levels (dysphoric) show a heightened accuracy in lie detection and a lower truth bias. Furthermore, we expected these effects to be stronger in positive statements. Moreover, we expected that nondysphoric but not dysphoric individuals would show a heightened truth bias for Black targets. We also expected to find the effects of depressive realism in judgmental confidence and in self-evaluations of performance. Methods: 472 participants classified 16 video statements as truth or lie. We tested all hypotheses using three depression measures: IPIP-300 Depression Subscale, the PHQ-9, and the CES-D. Results: In contrast to our hypothesis, we found no heightened accuracy in the veracity judgments of dysphoric individuals. Truth bias was higher in dysphoric participants than in nondysphoric. There was an interaction of valence with PHQ-9 but not with IPIP or CES-D. Nondysphoric but not dysphoric participants had a higher truth bias for Black targets. Furthermore, dysphoric individuals had lower judgmental confidence and lower but not more accurate self-evaluation values. Conclusion: We discuss the results and future directions.

Who am I really? The ephemerality of the self-schema following vmPFC damage

We studied the role of the ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC) in supporting the self-schema, by asking vmPFC patients, along with healthy and brain-damaged controls, to judge the degree to which they (or another person) were likely to engage in a series of activities, and how confident they were in their responses. Critically, participants provided their judgments on two separate occasions, a week apart. Our underlying assumption was that a strong self-schema would lead to confident and stable self-related judgments. We observed that control groups exhibited higher across-session consistency for self-related compared to other-related judgments, while this self-advantage was absent in vmPFC patients. In addition, regression analyses showed that in control groups the level of confidence associated with a specific (self- or other-related) judgment predicted the stability of that judgment across sessions. In contrast, vmPFC patients’ confidence and rating consistency were aligned only for other-related judgments. By contrast, self-related judgments changed across sessions regardless of the confidence level with which they were initially endorsed. These findings indicate that the vmPFC is crucial to maintaining the self-schema and supporting the reliable retrieval of self-related information.

Metacognitive Information Theory.

The capacity that subjects have to rate confidence in their choices is a form of metacognition, and can be assessed according to bias, sensitivity and efficiency. Rich networks of domain-specific and domain-general regions of the brain are involved in the rating, and are associated with its quality and its use for regulating the processes of thinking and acting. Sensitivity and efficiency are often measured by quantities called meta-d' and the M-ratio that are based on reverse engineering the potential accuracy of the original, primary, choice that is implied by the quality of the confidence judgements. Here, we advocate a straightforward measure of sensitivity, called meta-𝓘, which assesses the mutual information between the accuracy of the subject's choices and the confidence reports, and two normalized versions of this measure that quantify efficiency in different regimes. Unlike most other measures, meta-𝓘-based quantities increase with the number of correctly assessed bins with which confidence is reported. We illustrate meta-𝓘 on data from a perceptual decision-making task, and via a simple form of simulated second-order metacognitive observer.

Chinese character unitization enhances item memory in addition to associative memory: Evidence from ERP and TFR

While the effect of unitization on associative memory has been established, its effect on item memory remains debated. This study aimed to investigate the influence of unitization on item memory using Chinese characters to manipulate unitization and recording scalp EEG to elucidate the underlying neural mechanisms. In the learning phase, participants were asked to determine whether the character pairs presented could form a Chinese compound character. In the subsequent testing phase, participants performed item recognition and associative recognition tasks. Behavioral results revealed that unitization not only improved associative memory but also facilitated item memory. Event-related potential analysis indicated there were FN400 effect (related to familiarity) and LPC effect (related to recollection) during associative recognition after unitization, however, only the LPC effect was observed for the item recognition. More importantly, time-frequency analysis demonstrated stronger θ oscillations (associated with recollection) in the unitized condition compared to the non-unitized condition, which further partially mediated the reduction in RT during the item recognition. These results suggest that unitization enhances item memory through recollection, thereby leading to more confident recognition judgments, and that unitization does not impair item processing within an association but rather enables more precise and accurate processing.

Modality independent or modality specific? Common computations underlie confidence judgements in visual and auditory decisions.

The mechanisms that enable humans to evaluate their confidence across a range of different decisions remain poorly understood. To bridge this gap in understanding, we used computational modelling to investigate the processes that underlie confidence judgements for perceptual decisions and the extent to which these computations are the same in the visual and auditory modalities. Participants completed two versions of a categorisation task with visual or auditory stimuli and made confidence judgements about their category decisions. In each modality, we varied both evidence strength, (i.e., the strength of the evidence for a particular category) and sensory uncertainty (i.e., the intensity of the sensory signal). We evaluated several classes of computational models which formalise the mapping of evidence strength and sensory uncertainty to confidence in different ways: 1) unscaled evidence strength models, 2) scaled evidence strength models, and 3) Bayesian models. Our model comparison results showed that across tasks and modalities, participants take evidence strength and sensory uncertainty into account in a way that is consistent with the scaled evidence strength class. Notably, the Bayesian class provided a relatively poor account of the data across modalities, particularly in the more complex categorisation task. Our findings suggest that a common process is used for evaluating confidence in perceptual decisions across domains, but that the parameter settings governing the process are tuned differently in each modality. Overall, our results highlight the impact of sensory uncertainty on confidence and the unity of metacognitive processing across sensory modalities.

Temporal Error Monitoring Does Not Depend on Working Memory.

Working memory (WM) and metacognition has been documented to be in a reciprocal relationship. This study aims to address if temporal error monitoring performance can be diminished with increased working memory load. We hypothesized that if temporal error monitoring has commonalities with perceptual error monitoring, temporal error monitoring performance should be diminished by increased working memory load. Participants completed a temporal error monitoring task in a dual task design in which the secondary task was a letter alphabetization task. Results revealed no disrupting effect of WM load on either confidence or short-long judgments as being different metrics of temporal error monitoring ability. These results demonstrate that unlike perceptual error monitoring, WM and temporal error monitoring have distinct processing mechanisms. With this result, the current study suggests that temporal and perceptual error monitoring may partially rely on different mechanisms. Results are discussed within A Theory of Magnitude (ATOM), pacemaker-accumulator model and temporal error monitoring frameworks.

Even if you look confident, I am not sure you are telling the truth! The role of sender confidence on truthfulness judgment of emotional narratives

AbstractJudging truthfulness and detecting deception are critical in the criminal justice system as well as in many other applied contexts (e.g., clinical and business organizations). The ability to discriminate a truth-teller from a liar might be associated with the content of deception (e.g., emotional or high-stakes lies) or with the deceiver's characteristics, such as his/her level of confidence shown in lying. The two present studies aimed to manipulate the level of the sender’s confidence and to investigate its effect in deception vs. truthfulness judgments of written narratives varying in emotional content. A pilot sample (N = 124) assessed the stimuli validity of sixteen written narratives (Study 1): 8 deceptive vs. truthful narratives x four types of content (i.e., emotional/bereavement vs. emotional/car accident vs. emotional/quarrel vs neutral/holiday) with low confidence in the recall and 8 deceptive vs. truthful narratives x four types of content (i.e., emotional/bereavement vs. emotional/car accident vs. emotional/quarrel vs neutral/holiday) high in the confidence recall. An experimental sample (N = 428) was administered the two sequences of eight written narratives and for each narrative, veracity judgment, detection accuracy, and judgment confidence were assessed (Study 2). We found that the sender’s confidence, the veracity, and the content of the narratives affected receivers’ veracity judgments and detection accuracy. High confidence made receivers prone to judge bereavements and holiday narratives as truthful and quarrels narratives as deceptive. In addition, high confidence made judgments more accurate for truthful narratives on holidays compared with others, and for deceptive narratives on car accidents and quarrels than for other narratives. The present results are discussed in light of their practical implications for the legal field.

The many facets of metacognition: comparing multiple measures of metacognition in healthy individuals

Metacognition is important for successful goal-directed behavior. It consists of two main elements: metacognitive knowledge and online awareness. Online awareness consists of monitoring and self-regulation. Metacognitive sensitivity is the extent to which someone can accurately distinguish their own correct from incorrect responses and is an important aspect of monitoring of behavior. Research into the interplay between these elements is currently lacking. Therefore, the aim of the current study was to explore how these different elements of metacognition can predict metacognitive sensitivity. Healthy participants filled out the Metacognitive Awareness Inventory with two subscales that serve as measures of metacognitive knowledge. Next, as measures of online awareness, they performed a memory task that was adapted to include trial-by-trial confidence judgments, and made pro- and retrospective confidence judgments about their performance on this task. The 128 included participants show a large variability in scores on all the different metacognitive measures. Metacognitive sensitivity was predicted by higher prospective discrepancy scores and lower retrospective discrepancy scores but not by metacognitive knowledge. The current study confirms that metacognition is a multidimensional concept consisting of different elements. Online measures seem to be associated with each other, but not so much with offline measures. The current framework can be used to further investigate the associations between different elements of metacognition within persons.

Confidence judgements across psychopathology

Confidence judgements across psychopathology

Metacognitive judgments during visuomotor learning reflect the integration of error history.

People form metacognitive representations of their own abilities across a range of tasks. How these representations are influenced by errors during learning is poorly understood. Here, we ask how metacognitive confidence judgments of performance during motor learning are shaped by the learner's recent history of errors. Across four motor learning experiments, our computational modeling approach demonstrated that people's confidence judgments are best explained by a recency-weighted averaging of visually observed errors. Moreover, in the formation of these confidence estimates, people appear to reweight observed motor errors according to a subjective cost function. Confidence judgments were adaptive, incorporating recent motor errors in a manner that was sensitive to the volatility of the learning environment, integrating a shallower history when the environment was more volatile. Finally, confidence tracked motor errors in the context of both implicit and explicit motor learning but only showed evidence of influencing behavior in the latter. Our study thus provides a novel descriptive model that successfully approximates the dynamics of metacognitive judgments during motor learning.NEW & NOTEWORTHY This study examined how, during visuomotor learning, people's confidence in their performance is shaped by their recent history of errors. Using computational modeling, we found that confidence incorporated recent error history, tracked subjective error costs, was sensitive to environmental volatility, and in some contexts may influence learning. Together, these results provide a novel model of metacognitive judgments during motor learning that could be applied to future computational and neural studies at the interface of higher-order cognition and motor control.

Feeling lucky? prospective and retrospective cues for sensorimotor confidence.

On a daily basis, humans interact with the outside world using judgments of sensorimotor confidence, constantly evaluating our actions for success. We ask, what sensory and motor-execution cues are used in making these judgements and when are they available? Two sources of temporally distinct information are prospective cues, available prior to the action (e.g., knowledge of motor noise and past performance), and retrospective cues specific to the action itself (e.g., proprioceptive measurements). We investigated the use of these two cues in two tasks, a secondary motor-awareness task and a main task in which participants reached toward a visual target with an unseen hand and then made a continuous judgment of confidence about the success of the reach. Confidence was reported by setting the size of a circle centered on the reach-target location, where a larger circle reflects lower confidence. Points were awarded if the confidence circle enclosed the true endpoint, with fewer points returned for larger circles. This incentivized accurate reaches and attentive reporting to maximize the score. We compared three Bayesian-inference models of sensorimotor confidence based on either prospective cues, retrospective cues, or both sources of information to maximize expected gain (i.e., an ideal-performance model). Our findings showed two distinct strategies: participants either performed as ideal observers, using both prospective and retrospective cues to make the confidence judgment, or relied solely on prospective information, ignoring retrospective cues. Thus, participants can make use of retrospective cues, evidenced by the behavior observed in our motor-awareness task, but these cues are not always included in the computation of sensorimotor confidence.

Paradoxical evidence weighting in confidence judgments for detection and discrimination

When making discrimination decisions between two stimulus categories, subjective confidence judgments are more positively affected by evidence in support of a decision than negatively affected by evidence against it. Recent theoretical proposals suggest that this “positive evidence bias” may be due to observers adopting a detection-like strategy when rating their confidence—one that has functional benefits for metacognition in real-world settings where detectability and discriminability often go hand in hand. However, it is unknown whether, or how, this evidence-weighting asymmetry affects detection decisions about the presence or absence of a stimulus. In four experiments, we first successfully replicate a positive evidence bias in discrimination confidence. We then show that detection decisions and confidence ratings paradoxically suffer from an opposite “negative evidence bias” to negatively weigh evidence even when it is optimal to assign it a positive weight. We show that the two effects are uncorrelated and discuss our findings in relation to models that account for a positive evidence bias as emerging from a confidence-specific heuristic, and alternative models where decision and confidence are generated by the same, Bayes-rational process.

Social interoception: Perceiving events during cardiac afferent activity makes people more suggestible to other people's influence

Our judgements are often influenced by other people's views and opinions. Interoception also influences decision making, but little is known about its role in social influence and particularly, the extent to which other people may influence our decisions. Across two experiments, using different forms of social influence, participants judged the trustworthiness of faces presented either during the systolic phase of the cardiac cycle, when baroreceptors convey information from the heart to the brain, or during diastolic phase, when baroreceptors are quiescent. We quantified the extent to which participants changed their minds (as an index of social influence) following the social feedback, in order to compare two competing hypotheses. According to the Arousal-Confidence Hypothesis, cardiac signals create a context of heightened bodily arousal that increases confidence in perceptual judgements. People should, therefore, be less subject to social influence during systole. By contrast, according to the Uncertainty-Conformity Hypothesis, cardiac signals increase neural noise and sensory attenuation, such that people should display greater effects of social influence during systole, as they then underweight private interoceptive signals in favour of the external social information. Across two studies that used different kind of social interactions, we found that participants changed their minds more when faces were presented at systole. Our results, therefore, support the Uncertainly-Conformity hypothesis and highlight how cardiac afferent signals contribute to shape our social decision-making in different types of social interactions.

The Impact of Item Difficulty on Judgment of Confidence-A Cross-Level Moderated Mediation Model.

The factors that influence metacognitive judgments often appear in combination, rather than in isolation. The multi-cue utilization model proposes that individuals often make use of multiple cues when making judgments. Previous studies have focused on the integration of intrinsic and extrinsic cues, while the current investigation examines the integration and influence of intrinsic cues and mnemonic cues. Judgment of confidence is a common form of metacognitive judgment. In this study, 37 college students completed Raven's Progressive Matrices and made judgments of confidence. We used the cross-level moderated mediation model to explore the impact of item difficulty on confidence judgments. Our results indicated that item difficulty negatively predicts the level of confidence. Item difficulty has an impact on the confidence evaluation by altering the processing fluency of intermediate variables. The joint effect of intrinsic cue item difficulty and mnemonic cue processing fluency influences confidence judgments. Additionally, we found that intelligence moderates the effect of difficulty on processing fluency across levels. Specifically, individuals with higher intelligence exhibited lower fluency on difficult tasks and higher fluency on simple tasks than individuals with lower intelligence. These findings expand on the multi-cue utilization model and integrate the influence mechanism of intrinsic and mnemonic cues on confidence judgments. Finally, we propose and verify a cross-level moderated mediation model that explains how item difficulty affects confidence judgments.

Differences in the detail: Metacognition is better for seen than sensed changes to visual scenes

Metacognition is the process by which we know what we know. Knowing has both declarative and sensed components. Differences exist in the information that moves to our conscious awareness and how it is synthesised with existing knowledge. The current study measured metacognition by extending a visual change detection paradigm that promoted explicit or implicit detection by either a local or global manipulation of a scene. A within-subjects design was used to investigate how 91 participants detected change and made metacognitive judgements. Cognitive modelling, based on confidence judgements, estimated the relative contributions of discrete and continuous cognitive processes to change detection, and to metacognition. Metacognition was sensitive to both the discrete and continuous processes underlying change detection, but was more sensitive to the discrete process. These results demonstrate that metacognition attunes confidence differentially to explicit and implicit processes, and support direct-access theories for discrete processing and meta-representation theories for continuous processing.

Effects of Time Pressure, Reward, and Information Involvement on User Management of Fake News on a Social Media Platform.

This study examined the effects of time pressure, reward, and information involvement on individual fact-checking behavior within a social media platform. We used a four-factor mixed-design experiment to examine fact-checking performances of 144 participants for 36 ambiguous social platform statements, all of which were news statements of social events or of common-sense knowledge collected from the internet and selected through pre-test screening. We measured the participants' total number of fact-checked statements and their judgment accuracy of those statements. We also measured participants' decision time for making judgments, and their judgment confidence levels. Participants' social presence, time pressure, and information involvement were significantly related to the number of statements they fact-checked. Their perceived social presence on a social media platform reduced their fact-checking. Time pressure increased the frequency of fact-checking and weakened the impact of social presence. Participants were less likely to fact-check statements when they had high involvement with the information, due to overconfidence. Statements with high information involvement had longer decision-making times. These findings provide a basis for designing ways to display and push information to increase an individual's awareness of a need to fact-check ambiguous information in a new social media environment.

A Modeling Framework to Examine Psychological Processes Underlying Ordinal Responses and Response Times of Psychometric Data.

This article presents a joint modeling framework of ordinal responses and response times (RTs) for the measurement of latent traits. We integrate cognitive theories of decision-making and confidence judgments with psychometric theories to model individual-level measurement processes. The model development starts with the sequential sampling framework which assumes that when an item is presented, a respondent accumulates noisy evidence over time to respond to the item. Several cognitive and psychometric theories are reviewed and integrated, leading us to three psychometric process models with different representations of the cognitive processes underlying the measurement. We provide simulation studies that examine parameter recovery and show the relationships between latent variables and data distributions. We further test the proposed models with empirical data measuring three traits related to motivation. The results show that all three models provide reasonably good descriptions of observed response proportions and RT distributions. Also, different traits favor different process models, which implies that psychological measurement processes may have heterogeneous structures across traits. Our process of model building and examination illustrates how cognitive theories can be incorporated into psychometric model development to shed light on the measurement process, which has had little attention in traditional psychometric models.

Computer‐based scaffoldings influence students' metacognitive monitoring and problem‐solving efficiency in an intelligent tutoring system

AbstractBackgroundComputer‐based scaffolding has been intensively used to facilitate students' self‐regulated learning (SRL). However, most previous studies investigated how computer‐based scaffoldings affected the cognitive aspect of SRL, such as knowledge gains and understanding levels. In contrast, more evidence is needed to examine the effects of scaffolding on the metacognitive dimension and efficiency outcome of SRL.ObjectivesThis study aims to examine the role of computer‐based scaffolding in students' metacognitive monitoring and problem‐solving efficiency.MethodsSeventy‐two medical students completed two clinical reasoning tasks in BioWorld, an intelligent tutoring system (ITS) designed for promoting medical students' diagnostic expertise. During solving the tasks, students were asked to report their confidence judgements about proposed diagnoses. Computer trace data were used to identify task completion time (CT) and students' use of three scaffolding types, that is, conceptual, strategic, and metacognitive. Then we calculated students' metacognitive monitoring accuracy (i.e., calibration) and problem‐solving efficiency.Results and ConclusionsOne‐sample t‐test demonstrated that students inaccurately monitored their learning processes and were overconfident in both tasks. Linear mixed‐effects models (LMMs) indicated that the intensive use of metacognitive scaffolding positively predicted students' metacognitive monitoring accuracy. Moreover, strategic scaffolding was negatively related to problem‐solving efficiency, whereas metacognitive scaffolding positively influenced problem‐solving efficiency.TakeawaysThis study shows the importance of metacognitive scaffolding in improving the accuracy of metacognitive monitoring and problem‐solving efficiency. Findings from this study provide new insights for instructors and ITS developers to optimise the design of scaffoldings.

Late ERP correlates of confidence for auditory categorization of complex sounds

Recent research suggests that confidence judgments relate to the quality of early sensory representations and later modality independent processing stages. It is not known whether the nature of this finding might vary based on task and/or stimulus characteristics (e.g., detection vs. categorization). The present study investigated the neural correlates of confidence using electroencephalography (EEG) in an auditory categorization task. This allowed us to examine whether the early event-related potentials (ERPs) related to confidence in detection also apply to a more complex auditory task. Participants listened to frequency-modulated (FM) tonal stimuli going up or down in pitch. The rate of FM tones ranged from slow to fast, making the stimuli harder or easier to categorize. Tone-locked late posterior positivity (LPP) but not N1 or P2 amplitudes were larger for (correct-only) trials rated with high than low confidence. These results replicated for trials presenting stimuli at individually identified threshold levels (rate of change producing ∼71.7% correct performance). This finding suggests that, in this task, neural correlates of confidence do not vary based on difficulty level. We suggest that the LPP is a task general indication of the confidence for an upcoming judgment in a variety of paradigms.