Status Of Water Bodies Research Articles

Section 303(d) of the Clean Water Act: What does it mean for fisheries?

ABSTRACT The Clean Water Act (CWA) was passed by the United States Congress in 1972. It established regulations for the quality of discharges from point sources and a framework to assess water quality condition, identify what must be done for impaired waters to meet water quality standards, and work with stakeholders to improve water quality conditions. Section 303(d) of the CWA specifically outlines a framework for authorized states, territories, and tribes to identify polluted waters. It also requires plans be written that describe how water quality can be restored. Implementation of Section 303(d) can affect the condition of waterbodies as well as the fisheries that they support. In this paper we describe the 303(d) process and explain how fisheries professionals and the species they manage can benefit from the data produced through this process and the required public engagement. In addition, we provide two examples where involvement of fisheries professionals in the 303(d) process has resulted in both improved water quality and fisheries. Finally, we encourage fisheries professionals to become engaged in the 303(d) process to improve water quality and fisheries outcomes.

Report on the Elements and Composition of Emerging Contaminants in Water Bodies of China

In the context of rapid industrialization and urbanization in China over the past few years, the issue of water pollution has emerged as a significant concern. This article provides a comprehensive literature review on the research conducted on water body conditions in China over the past few decades. The review encompasses various studies that have examined the pollution levels of different types of water sources across the country, as well as identified different types of pollutants present in these water bodies. The contamination level is found to be varying over the past 20 to 30 years time, with a continuing increasing focus over the polluting power of neo-pollutants, the PFAS. Continued research efforts are necessary to monitor changes in pollution levels over time accurately. In addition, implementing effective regulations and adopting sustainable practices will be vital steps towards mitigating further degradation of precious water bodies in China.

Экологическая оценка состояния водных объектов в условиях городского Зеленоградского административного округа

This article presents data on environmental monitoring of two water bodies located in the city of Zelenograd for 2023. Urban water bodies of Zelenograd receive little attention, and the assessment of their quality and, as a consequence, the adoption of timely decisions to ensure their sustainable condition are difficult due to the lack of necessary information. Lack of information about water bodies makes research on their condition extremely important and relevant. As a result of the research, comparative data on organoleptic and hydrochemical indicators of water quality of two large water bodies subject to different recreational load were obtained. Keywords: ASSESSMENT OF WATER BODIES, WATER BODIES OF ZELENOGRAD, ECOLOGICAL CONDITION OF WATER BODIES, ANTHROPOGENIC LOAD ON AQUATIC ECOSYSTEMS, ECOLOGICAL MONITORING OF WATER BODIES

Оценка воздействия стока некоторых рек Сочинского Причерноморья на прибрежную морскую среду в зонах их плюмов

The paper assesses the impact of water quality of some rivers located within the Black Sea coastal zone in the Sochi area on the ecological security and status of the Black Sea coastal line. The relevance of the study is determined by the lack of a unified methodological approach to establishing parameters for assessing the ecological condition of water bodies within the Black Sea coastal area. The study is the first to consider a unified river-sea system in the context of integrated monitoring of natural water quality. The research is based on biological methods (biotesting, bioindication) to evaluate the state of biological communities and processes in combination with the analysis of geological aspects. This allows a detailed study of the influence of various factors on the marine environment ecological safety. It was revealed that the marine environment has the highest levels of toxicity in the inflow zones of small rivers, which are subject to significant complex impacts from municipal solid waste landfills and industrial enterprises located in their catchment areas. In the marine plumes of rivers classified as medium, which are important for water management, recreation and fisheries in the region, seawater has a lower toxic effect as a result of significant dilution. Thus, small rivers inflows can cause similar negative impacts on the quality of the marine environment and the status of coastal biocenoses as runoff from larger watercourses. The study results can contribute to the development of new approaches for the assessment and monitoring of the environmental security of the coastal marine environment, based on the concept of the ecological system integrity in the context of interdependencies associated with the pollutants and nutrients transfer between qualitatively different environments and associated with them river and cjastal marine hydrobiocenoses.

Рост окуня Perca fluviatilis L., 1758 (Percidae) в казахстанской части бассейна Ишима

The growth of Eurasian perch in water bodies within the Ishim River system in the Republic of Kazakhstan has been investigated. Data from 29 samples from various water bodies of the Ishim watershed and some adjacent watersheds are presented. The most extensive age series were found in specimens from Lake Lobanovo (National Park “Kokshetau”) – up to sixteen years (15+). River populations had a shorter lifespan. Comparison of growth rate patterns indicates the presence of two conditional “units”: the first includes the majority of lake populations, while the second includes Karatomarskoe Reservoir and Lake Lobanovo. Some samples are located outside of these groupings. The examined chronological samples show significant differences in growth for some. This is typical for Lake Karakol and, partialy, – the Ishimskoe Reservoir, where positive hydrological changes occurred between perch catches years, resulting in increased growth rates. These samples exhibit a low level of correlation in growth indicators between adjacent ages, indicating disruption in growth rate “canalization” and the acquisition of opportunities for individuals in a renewed unbalanced habitat environment. In relatively stable conditions of most other water bodies, the correlation level of these data indicators is high for the majority of comparison pairs. When comparing Ishim populations with previously published data on the Nura and Sarysu river watersheds re-garding growth rates, one can empirically conclude about the more successful growth of perch in the Nura-Sarysu watershed. However, it should be noted that mainly water bodies without commercial fishing and with developed recreational fishing were studied in the Ishim watershed. In contrast, water bodies with predominant commercial fishing were surveyed in the Nura-Sarysu system. The different impacts of these types of fishing may determine both the growth rates and the lifespan of perch.

MATHEMATICAL MODEL FOR PREDICTING CHANGES IN THE ECOLOGICAL STATE OF SURFACE WATER BODIES, TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE IMPACT OF UPSTREAM TRIBUTARIES

The article investigates the impact of surface water bodies in the sub-basins of the Dnipro River, particularly the influence of an upstream tributary on the ecological status of the main downstream river. Such research is essential to identify factors affecting the water composition of rivers and to assess the ecological status of surface water bodies, including left tributaries of the Dnipro, such as the Desna, Sula, Psel, Vorskla, and Samara. The study aims to determine the impact of the left tributaries of the Dnipro on the water quality of surface water bodies within the sub-basins, in order to identify the primary sources of their ecological deterioration. The object of the study is the surface water bodies (the left tributaries of the Dnipro – the Desna, Sula, Psel, Vorskla, and Samara rivers). The subject of the study is the impact of the upstream left tributaries of the Dnipro on the downstream ones on changes in their ecological status within the sub-basins. The scientific novelty lies in the development of a mathematical model for predicting changes in the ecological status of surface water bodies within a sub-basin, taking into account the influence of upstream tributaries. The obtained research results for the Desna, Sula, Psel, Vorskla, and Samara tributaries, based on the constructed isolines, confirm the influence of upstream tributaries on downstream ones at observation posts. It has been established that the influence of upstream tributaries on those located downstream follows an exponential law. The developed mathematical model allows for predicting the impact of upstream tributaries on downstream ones. The results of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov criterion calculations indicate that the proposed model for predicting the ecological status of surface water bodies in the Dnipro sub-basins is reliable and effective and can be implemented in risk assessments for natural and man-made emergency situations.

Artificial intelligence in water quality monitoring: A review of water quality assessment applications

ABSTRACT Artificial intelligence (AI) has become a useful tool in numerous domains, including environmental science. This review explores the application of machine learning and deep learning, as AI technologies, applied in calculating and modelling water quality indexes (WQIs) and water quality classification. WQIs are used to assess the overall status of water bodies and compliance with environmental regulations. Given a large amount of monitoring data, traditional methods for calculating WQIs can be labour-intensive and subject to human error. AI offers a compelling alternative, with the potential to enhance accuracy, reduce time, and provide insights into complex environmental data. This paper examines recent progress in applying AI to water quality assessment through WQIs, including the creation of predictive models that incorporate diverse water quality parameters and the implementation of AI in real-time monitoring systems. The challenges of deploying AI, such as data availability, model transparency, and system integration, are also discussed. Through a detailed analysis of recent studies and practical implementations, this review analyses the potential of AI to contribute to water quality management and suggests directions for future research.

Multi-Decadal Impact of Mine Waters in Przemsza River Basin, Upper Silesian Coal Basin, Southern Poland

Anthropogenic increases in the salinity of surface waters are referred to as secondary salinization. In surface waters, salinity levels can vary significantly due to various natural and anthropogenic influences. This article presents multi-decadal observations of changes in surface water salinity in the highly industrialized region in southern Poland. The case study of the Przemsza River is an example of the significant impacts of industrial, mainly coal mining, activities that have changed the chemical and biological characteristics of water bodies. The presented research revealed that impacts on salinity and water body status due to mining discharges will be difficult or even impossible to restore, considering the process of transition of the coal sector. In the Przemsza river basin, almost 42% less mine water was discharged in 2023 than in 1991. Parallelly, the salinity of mine waters discharged from deeper levels of active coal mines has increased due to the geochemical gradient (the total load of chlorides and sulfates was 534.8 MgCl−+SO42− per day in 1991, while in 2023 the total salinity load was 480.1 MgCl−+SO42− per day). Moreover, of the 19 active mine water discharges in 1991, only 11 remain in 2023, while the observed salinity of surface water in the Przemsza watershed increased rapidly from an average of 2000 µS·cm−1 to 6700 µS·cm−1 due to the significant drought and adverse hydrological conditions, which represent low flows never observed before (three times lower flows in the mouth of the Przemsza River in the period 2021–2023 compared to the previous decades 1991–2020). Impacts on water bodies will continue to occur regardless of mining activities in the area—it should be noted that at the end of exploitation, mine water rebound and flooding do not automatically reduce long-lasting impacts on surface waters. Therefore, salinization is a growing threat that might be amplified by climate change. While industrial and urban impacts on surface water change its characteristics, the future challenge of proper water management with a holistic approach is necessary with proper monitoring data collection and river flow-dependent and surface water salinity-dependent discharge of wastewater in the river basin.

The shifts in microbial interactions and gene expression caused by temperature and nutrient loading influence Raphidiopsis raciborskii blooms

Climate change and the trophic status of water bodies are important factors in global occurrence of cyanobacterial blooms. The aim of this study was to explore the cyanobacteria‒bacterial interactions that occur during Raphidiopsis raciborskii (R. raciborskii) blooms by conducting microcosm simulation experiments at different temperatures (20 °C and 30 °C) and with different phosphorus concentrations (0.01 mg/L and 1 mg/L) using an ecological model of microbial behavior and by analyzing microbial self-regulatory strategies using weighted gene coexpression network analysis (WGCNA). Three-way ANOVA revealed significant effects of temperature and phosphorus on the growth of R. raciborskii (P < 0.001). The results of a metagenomics-based analysis of bacterioplankton revealed that the synergistic effects of both climate and trophic changes increased the ability of R. raciborskii to compete with other cyanobacteria for dominance in the cyanobacterial community. The antagonistic effects of climate and nutrient changes favored the occurrence of R. raciborskii blooms, especially in eutrophic waters at approximately 20 °C. The species diversity and richness indices differed between the eutrophication treatment group at 20 °C and the other treatment groups. The symbiotic bacterioplankton network revealed the complexity and stability of the symbiotic bacterioplankton network during blooms and identified the roles of key species in the network. The study also revealed a complex pattern of interactions between cyanobacteria and non-cyanobacteria dominated by altruism, as well as the effects of different behavioral patterns on R. raciborskii bloom occurrence. Furthermore, this study revealed self-regulatory strategies that are used by microbes in response to the dual pressures of temperature and nutrient loading. These results provide important insights into the adaptation of microbial communities in freshwater ecosystems to environmental change and provide useful theoretical support for aquatic environmental management and ecological restoration efforts.

New challenges regarding the environmental and sanitary condition of Ukrainian water bodies

Today Ukraine is faced with new challenges that have a significant impact on natural water bodies and aquaculture. As a result of hostilities, there is an additional pressure on aquatic ecosystems. Unfortunately, large territories with important fishery complexes of Ukraine are either occupied, located in the war zone, or mined. Currently it is impossible to carry out comprehensive monitoring investigations into the actual environmental condition of inland water bodies of Ukraine. Therefore, in order to establish a true picture of the state of the water fund of Ukraine, an analytical review of publications was performed. Unfortunately, after the large-scale hostilities on the territory of Ukraine, a significant number of water bodies changed their status according to saprobic indicators. The situation is difficult with the reservoirs of the Dnipro River Cascade, which accumulate all pollutants released into the water from the catchment area. The destruction of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Station led to a massive killing of all biota, including fish. The reservoirs are mostly polluted by biogenic, organic and surface-active substances, oil products, phenols, pesticides, and heavy metals. Even in the pre-war period, the problem of water pollution required immediate decisions, and with the beginning of the full-scale war, it became one of the most urgent tasks for Ukraine. Today, Ukraine’s water bodies suffer from pollution by pyrogens, fuel, and lubricants after rocket attacks and even from the total destruction of fish farms, water reservoirs, i.e., the Kakhovka Reservoir. Therefore, monitoring of the environmental condition of inland water bodies of Ukraine will provide an opportunity to assess their real condition and, in the future, to select the complex of methods aimed for their restoration.

Distribution of Najadaceae Species in Trans-Baikal Area Due to Climatic Factors

According to data of the late 20th century in the Trans-Baikal and Baikal areas, the family Najadaceae is represented by four species known in few localities: Caulinia flexilis (4 localities), C. minor (3), and Najas major (3), N. marina (4). All of them are annuals, r-strategists, which are characterized by fluctuations in abundance. Since the 21st century, these species have been found in 20 more localities, mainly situated within the Baikal Depression. In 2015, when performing monitoring studies of aquatic flora, three more new localities of Caulinia flexilis, C. minor, and Najas major were found in the basin of the Amur River. Distribution maps of the Najadaceae species in the region were compiled, and the ecological characteristics of their habitats were given. In Trans-Baikal area, since the middle of the 20th century, warming has occurred due to an increase in the average annual temperature. For the last 70 years, aridization has increased in southern regions, which changes the habitat conditions in waterbodies. Findings of these Najadaceae species in Trans-Baikal area coincided with the periods of increase in mean annual air temperatures and with local minimums of precipitation. An increase in the number of findings of the Najadaceae species since the beginning of the 21st century, both in Trans-Baikal area and in other regions of Russia, has been occurring against the background of an increase in the average annual air temperature. In Trans-Baikal area, the trend of increasing of temperatures in the warm season since the beginning of the 21st century is favorable for these species and may contribute to their further distribution.

Climate change and ecological assessment in Europe under the WFD – Hitting moving targets with shifting baselines?

The Water Framework Directive (WFD) sets the fundamental structure for assessing the status of water bodies in the European Union. Its implementation is currently entering its fourth six-year cycle assisted by a total of 38 guidance documents. The principal objective is to ensure good status for surface and ground waters. The functioning of the WFD is based on detecting the impact of human pressures on biological, physico-chemical, or hydromorphological parameters, and reducing these causal pressures through a program of measures to achieve good status. Climate change can exert a significant influence on ecological status by directly altering parameters monitored, pressure interactions, or influencing the effectiveness of programs of measures. Aquatic systems respond holistically to climate change with different pressures having additive, synergistic, or antagonistic interactions. The challenge is how to adapt the framework to manage aquatic systems in the context of climate change while maintaining focus on implementing measures to tackle key pressures. This paper examines potential approaches, including reassignment of waterbody type, quantifying the portion of Ecological Quality Ratio (EQR) driven by climate change, and creating an assessment module of climatic pressures and ecological responses. The overall purpose is to stimulate discussion and explore ways to incorporate climate change into the WFD structure.

Determination of Water Quality Index of Drinking Water in Aligarh District, UP, India

Water is perhaps the most precious natural resource after air. Though the surface of the earth is mostly consists of water, only a small part of it is usable, which makes this resource very limited. This precious and limited resource, therefore, must be used with prudence. As water is required for different purposes, the suitability of it must be checked before use. Nowadays fresh water cannot be used directly for drinking purposes due to contamination and pollution. So treatment is used before it is used for drinking or for industrial processes. Also, sources of water must be monitored regularly to determine whether they are in sound health or not. Poor condition of water bodies are not only the indictor of environmental degradation, it is also a threat to the ecosystem. In industries, improper quality of water may cause hazards and severe economic loss. Thus, the quality of water is very important in both environmental and economic aspects. Thus, water quality analysis is essential for using it in any purpose. The quality of water depends upon its source of history. The history of water signifies the terrain through which water is flowing, its origin and most important the extent to which it is contaminated on its way by impurities, sediments and industrial waste. The solubilisation and fragmentation of the terrain through which it flows determines its quality. The extent of dissolved solid materials present in water decides its quality. Such quality is also decided by the solubility of the geological deposits, contact of water with sediments, time of interaction and special factors related to environment. To ascertain suitability of water for consumption, it is necessary to undertake examination of quality of water. . Major information on the quality of water is obtained by physical examination. considered in the present paper for calculating the WQI such as pH, Total alkalinity, Calcium, Magnesium, Chloride, Sulphate, Nitrate and also calculated the seasonal variations of physio- chemical parameters of water quality of Aligarh District.

Transient Electromagnetic Field Response Analysis Considering Dam Boundary Conditions

Abstract The transient electromagnetic (TEM) method has outstanding advantages in detecting depth and response information and can be used to detect anomalies hidden deep inside dams. However, the current data analysis method based on geological exploration is inapplicable to the interpretation of dam detection data, the main reason being the lack of consideration of the influence of dam boundary conditions on the diffusion of the TEM field. In this work, by establishing a numerical model of a dam for TEM detection, the effects of the dam slope ratio, upstream water body, overburden, and other dam boundary conditions on the TEM field were studied. The results showed that the slope ratio made the propagating TEM field to exhibit a constraining behavior, and a negative deviation could be seen in the attenuation curve, indicating a false high-resistance anomaly. The upstream water body distorted the diffusion of the electromagnetic field, and the low-resistance covering layer caused a low-retardation retention phenomenon in the magnetic field, leading to a positive deviation in the attenuation curve, indicating a false low-resistance anomaly. The influence of the boundary conditions was present throughout the entire observation window in which the detection was performed, and the sensitivity of the magnetic field to these boundary conditions was significantly higher than that of the change rate of the magnetic field. With the increase in the observation time, the main influencing factors were the slope ratio, overburden layer, and upstream water body.

Modelling an urban wastewater system via a space–time multivariate calibration to understand and improve water bodies quality

ABSTRACT The European Water Framework Directive requires good quality status for water bodies remaining solely attainable through a global approach. Urban wastewater integrated modelling is a promising tool for this purpose. However, certain barriers still hinder its application, such as the significant amount of data required and specifically in the sewer system, the issues with data quality or the monitoring and maintenance costs. This study develops an integrated model for Dijon Metropole in France using multiple hydraulic and quality data sources (e.g. sensors, analysers, laboratory measurements) and calibration criteria. The results show that long-term trends can be predicted for hydraulic and quality variables. The scenarios demonstrate that combined sewer overflows are responsible for most of the anoxic and ammonium high concentration periods in the rivers during rain events compared to the Water Resources Recovery Facility (WRRF). Therefore, adding storm tanks in the wastewater system will reduce stress on aquatic organisms during rainfall events. Reducing WRRF discharge during wet weather can also reduce the average and percentile of ammonium in the river. These results indicate that strategies should be adapted depending on the water quality objective (biological and/or physico-chemical) and the sensitivity of the organisms present in the river.

Spatio Temporal Distribution of SST and Chlorophyll a in WPP 718 Waters during the West Season: A Case Study of Merauke Regency Waters, Indonesia

Sea surface temperature (SST) and chlorophyll-a are critical factors for determining oceanographic conditions in water bodies. This research aims to analyze the spatial and temporal distribution of these parameters in the waters of the Merauke region using remote sensing technology. Descriptive methods and remote sensing techniques were used to collect and analyze data from Aqua-MODIS satellite images from December 2022 to February 2023. The results indicate that the waters of Merauke Regency are fertile and warm, with the highest surface temperature recorded in December 2022 (25.0 - 30.0 Celsius). C) and the lowest in January 2023 (25.0 – 28.0 degrees Celsius). Chlorophyll-a concentrations peaked in December 2022 (0.26-5 mg/m3) and were lowest in February 2023 (0.2-2 mg/m3). These results provide valuable insights for fisheries management and environmental monitoring, aiding in the sustainable use of marine.

QPCR-based phytoplankton abundance and chlorophyll a: A multi-year study in twelve large freshwater rivers across the United States

Phytoplankton overgrowth, which characterizes the eutrophication or trophic status of surface water bodies, threatens ecosystems and public health. Quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) is promising for assessing the abundance and community composition of phytoplankton. However, applications of qPCR to indicate eutrophication and trophic status, especially in lotic systems, have yet to be comprehensively evaluated. For the first time, this study correlates qPCR-based phytoplankton abundance with chlorophyll a (the most widely used indicator of eutrophication and trophic status) in multiple freshwater rivers. From early summer to late fall in 2017, 2018, and 2019, we evaluated phytoplankton, chlorophyll a, pheophytin a, and the Trophic Level Index (TLI) in twelve large freshwater rivers in three regions (western, midcontinent, and eastern) in the United States. qPCR-based phytoplankton abundance had positive allometric correlations with chlorophyll a concentration (adjusted R2 = 0.5437, p-value < 0.001), pheophytin a concentration (adjusted R2 = 0.3378, p-value <0.001), and TLI (adjusted R2 = 0.4789, p-value < 0.001). Thus, a greater phytoplankton abundance suggests a higher trophic status. This work also presents the numerical values of qPCR-based phytoplankton abundance defining the boundaries among trophic statuses (e.g., oligotrophic, mesotrophic, and eutrophic) of freshwater rivers. The sampling sites in the midcontinent rivers were more eutrophic because they had significantly higher chlorophyll a concentrations, pheophytin a concentrations, and TLI values than the sites in the western and eastern rivers. The higher phytoplankton abundance at the midcontinent sites confirmed their higher trophic status. By linking qPCR-based phytoplankton abundance to chlorophyll a, this study demonstrates that qPCR is a promising avenue to investigate the population dynamics of phytoplankton and the trophic status (or eutrophication) of freshwater rivers.

Evaluation of the Effectiveness of Food Chemical Attractants for Wild Common Carp, Cyprinus carpio (Cyprinidae) under Conditions of Natural Water Body

Evaluation of the Effectiveness of Food Chemical Attractants for Wild Common Carp, Cyprinus carpio (Cyprinidae) under Conditions of Natural Water Body

Assessing Ecosystem Health: A Comparative Study Using Water Quality Index Analysis across Ten Lotic System in the Cross River System

This review synthesizes findings from 10 scientific publications utilizing the weighted arithmetic Water Quality Index (WQI) to assess the status of diverse water bodies (Ikpa River, Lower Enyong Creek, Nwaniba River, Imo River, Etim Ekpo River, Lower Qua Iboe River, Ibeno Estuary, Cross River, Ikot Ebak River and Oboroenyin River) all within the Cross River System. The Analysis reveals that 6 out of 10 sampled water bodies are moderately polluted, while the remaining 4 exhibit slight pollution levels. These findings underscore significant concerns regarding water quality degradation, predominantly attributed to industrial effluents, agricultural runoff and urban contaminants. The WQI proves effective in consolidating multiple water quality parameters into a comprehensive index, facilitating a holistic assessment of pollution levels and guiding management strategies. Moving forward, concerted efforts are imperative to enhance monitoring efforts, implement stringent regulatory measures, and adopt sustainable practices to safeguard freshwater resources globally. This review underscores the urgency of integrated approaches to mitigate pollution and ensure resilience of aquatic ecosystems and public health.

Monitoring Water Diversity and Water Quality with Remote Sensing and Traits

Changes and disturbances to water diversity and quality are complex and multi-scale in space and time. Although in situ methods provide detailed point information on the condition of water bodies, they are of limited use for making area-based monitoring over time, as aquatic ecosystems are extremely dynamic. Remote sensing (RS) provides methods and data for the cost-effective, comprehensive, continuous and standardised monitoring of characteristics and changes in characteristics of water diversity and water quality from local and regional scales to the scale of entire continents. In order to apply and better understand RS techniques and their derived spectral indicators in monitoring water diversity and quality, this study defines five characteristics of water diversity and quality that can be monitored using RS. These are the diversity of water traits, the diversity of water genesis, the structural diversity of water, the taxonomic diversity of water and the functional diversity of water. It is essential to record the diversity of water traits to derive the other four characteristics of water diversity from RS. Furthermore, traits are the only and most important interface between in situ and RS monitoring approaches. The monitoring of these five characteristics of water diversity and water quality using RS technologies is presented in detail and discussed using numerous examples. Finally, current and future developments are presented to advance monitoring using RS and the trait approach in modelling, prediction and assessment as a basis for successful monitoring and management strategies.