Concept Of Uncertainty Research Articles

Generalized Quantum Lagrangian

The paper concerns the formulation of a Lagrangian function compliant with classical, quantum and relativistic outcomes. The literature Lagrangians are reported with modified local Lorentz transformations, or with potentials inferred directly from the relativistic metric or with geometrical meaning. In this paper the Lagrangian is formulated via the concept of quantum uncertainty only, which allows a non-deterministic approach. This theoretical frame is proven useful to merge without additional hypotheses quantum and relativistic outcomes in a straightforward way.

Managing geotechnical uncertainty and risk in mining

The science of soil mechanics is 100 years old, and rock mechanics is about 80 years old. While methods of analysis and design have been developed and have evolved over time, these are relatively young sciences. The rapid increases in computing power and new technologies have enabled more sophisticated modelling and monitoring. However, there are still many aspects of soil and rock mechanics that are not well understood. Geotechnical failures, which have major consequences, still occur. These consequences may include environmental damage, major production holdups and associated loss of revenue, damage to infrastructure, and loss of life. High-consequence events, which are rare, are more difficult to anticipate and to design for, because by their nature they involve extraordinary circumstances or conditions, often geological in nature. The risks are usually mitigated by conservative designs and monitoring. Detailed geotechnical investigations help us to understand the natural variability of soil and rock masses and identify unusual or unexpected conditions. Investigating and researching major geotechnical failures is essential to enable these unusual circumstances to be anticipated. In the past, severe unanticipated events may have been treated as natural events or 'acts of God'. However, society now has much greater expectations and it is essential to have policies and procedures in place that enable appropriate management of these rare, high-consequence risks. A good example is the Global Industry Standard on Tailings Management (GISTM), which was introduced after the catastrophic dam collapse at Vale's Corrego de Feijao mine in Brumadinho, Brazil. The address will explain the concepts of uncertainty and variability, and how they should be taken into account in geotechnical design. The challenges facing geotechnical engineers, mine owners, and managers will be discussed. referencing a number of real case studies. Keywords: uncertainty, variability, risk, consequences, environmental, social, production, revenue, damage, geotechnical, soil mechanics, rock mechanics, design, mine layouts, GISTM, tailings dam, pillar, failure, mechanism, model, seismic, rockburst.

Consumer cynicism toward management’s handling of uncertainties a study in the aviation sector

Managing uncertainty, which is an inevitable reality in the working life of businesses, will inevitably benefit the success of the company. Looking at the sources of the concept of uncertainty in businesses; It is handled in four different categories as marked variability, predictable uncertainty, unpredictable uncertainty and chaos. The emergency and additional are necessary condition for a manager to be able to identify uncertainty and learn. When the consumer buys a brand, there may be inconsistency between the promises of the brand and the experiences obtained. The fact that the consumer, who has many negative feelings about the brand, has these thoughts is called consumer cynicism in the marketing process. It can convey the negative situation experienced by the consumer to other consumers through word of mouth or communication with digital marketing channels. With this study, it is tried to determine the effect of the cynicism thoughts of the consumer against a brand or product in the process of coping with the uncertainties of the management. Data were obtained from 410 participants by convenience sampling method. In the findings, the situation of the manager was effective in the process of the cynical thoughts of the consumers in the process of managing the uncertainties of the enterprise. Another striking issue is that demographically; men have a more cynical attitude. This can be easily resolved by the manager. Among other variables, besides education level, cynical behaviors are observed in some of the sub-variables of managerial uncertainty and age.

How To Teach Uncertainty Management

In this article, we propose a model to teach uncertainty management. Our primary goal is to define the concept of uncertainty and its stakes. We then discuss the effect that uncertainty may have on physicians and patients. We finally present reliable strategies to address medical complexity and how to teach or assess complexity management.

Управлінські рішення в умовах невизначеності міжнародного бізнес-середовища

The article is aimed at developing a methodical approach to assessing the favorability of the business environment in the process of making managerial decisions under conditions of uncertainty. The necessity of making sound managerial decisions when an enterprise carries out international activities is proved. It is noted that from the point of view of studying the conditions of international business activity, the concept of uncertainty characterizes a situation in which there is no reliable information about the possible state and trends in the factors of the business environment of the host country. A thorough analysis of the current state and trends in the transformation of business environment factors in foreign markets contributes to minimizing uncertainty. It is underlined that the use of such common global analytical systems for rating economic processes as the Global Competitiveness Index, the Ease of Doing Business Index and the Index of Countries’ Involvement in International Trade to assess the business environment is currently impossible. The author proposes to use the KOF Globalization Index, the Index of Economic Freedom, the Global Innovation Index, and the Human Development Index, which are the result of global studies of the business environment of countries. The general characteristics of each of the indices are provided, development trends are determined, the five leading countries and Ukraine’s positions are presented according to the results of the published ratings for 2022–2023. To assess the country’s favorability in carrying out international activities in terms of uncertainty and instability of its business environment, an approach to calculating the aggregated indicator based on indicators of the KOF Globalisation Index, the Index of Economic Freedom, the Global Innovation Index, the Human Development Index, combined by the PEST analysis methodology, has been developed. The use of the proposed methodological approach will help to increase the thoroughness of managerial decision-making in the implementation of international activities by the enterprise.

Comparative analysis of measurement accuracy characteristics

The parallel coexistence of the error theory and the concept of uncertainty in Ukraine for almost 30 years has brought about constant discussions and raised the issue of their analysis and comparison.
 The concept of uncertainty is the product of an international standardization process for the evaluation of measurement accuracy. The development of the concept was based on analysing and generalizing the documents on error evaluation, relevant in different countries, therefore many elements of both approaches coincide. Nevertheless, there are a number of mathematical, terminological, and conceptual differences that are considered in this paper.
 It should be noted that while the development of the error theory stopped at the end of the 90s of the last century, the concept of uncertainty has been successfully developing since then thanks to the activities of the JCGM and a number of other international organizations. Along with the GUM, a variant of implementing the model approach has been introduced based on the Monte Carlo method, an empirical approach has been developed, and the revision of the GUM has been initiated based on the Bayesian inference.
 Nevertheless, both concepts have internal contradictions and shortcomings, with which even their creators themselves agree.
 Therefore, the task of theoretical metrologists is to develop a unified theory for evaluating the accuracy of measurements, eliminating the shortcomings of both approaches.
 Quantitative differences of accuracy estimates in the theory of errors and the concept of uncertainty are considered, which are related to the ways of expressing and summing the components, as well as obtaining interval accuracy estimates.
 In view of the imperfection of normative documents on the error theory, as well as the widespread use of the ISO/IEC 17025 standard in Ukraine, it is advisable to reformulate the curricula for metrological specialities replacing the theory of errors with the concept of uncertainty.

Borrowing from Keynes' A Treatise on Probability: A non‐probabilistic measure of uncertainty for scenario planning

AbstractScenario planning is a tool used to formulate contingent but potentially impactful futures to aid strategic decision‐making. A crucial element of many versions of scenario planning is an assessment of levels of uncertainty about the broad drivers of change within the system under consideration. Despite the importance of this element, the scenario planning literature is largely silent on the appropriate conception of uncertainty to use, exactly what it attaches to and how it might be measured. This paper seeks to fill this gap by advancing a non‐probabilistic measure of uncertainty based on the concept of evidential weight drawn from the economist John Maynard Keynes' 1921 A Treatise on Probability.

Uncertainty factor in contemporary communities of the Russian Arctic: methodological approaches to research

The article introduces readers to work on a new research project “Overcoming Uncertainty in Interaction with the Physical and Social Environment in the Russian Arctic” by describing its conceptual and theoretical approach and premises as well as the steps of designing it. It opens with an analysis of the concept of risk, which is currently popular in the Arctic Social Studies and which is sometimes claimed to be the central concept in the field. It proceeds by describing the new approach, which is based on the concept of uncertainty, both natural and social, which constantly accompanies human life in the Far North. The inhabitants of the North know from experience that uncertainty cannot be ruled out, but one can be constantly prepared for it by planning one’s behavior with this factor in mind. Furthermore, one can suggest that the effects of ecological, economic and social changes are experienced by these inhabitants first and foremost as shifts in the level and kind of uncertainty. Therefore, the concept of uncertainty can replace the concept of risk in the studies of the effects of change on northern communities; in fact, “uncertainty” is preferable because its conceived nature is obvious, while in many risk studies, risk is still perceived as something objective. The main questions that a study of uncertainty can answer are: what is the role of natural and social uncertainty in the everyday life of the permanent population of the Arctic? What are the action strategies of the people in the face of uncertainty, including discursive strategies to explain the growing uncertainty? What is the role of state authorities, industrial companies, local organizations, urban and rural communities in overcoming the negative consequences of natural and social uncertainties? How are social connections and networks involved in dealing with situations of uncertainty? The paper demonstrates how these questions can be answered on the basis of anthropological fieldwork. It also uses examples from the Komi Republic (Vorkuta), Yakutia (Chersky settlement), and Magadan area to demonstrate the sort of problems the uncertainty-based approach can contribute to solving. A review of the existing literature in Russian and English is presented in order to give the reader useful insights into the field of uncertainty studies and outline the main directions of research that a study of uncertainty can take

Software for measurement uncertainty assessment and actual metrological characteristics of viscometers

The issue of implementation of software for rapid assessment of uncertainty of metrological control results of measuring instruments used in the field of state metrological control and supervision in calibration and evaluation of actual metrological characteristics of operating viscosimeters was considered. An interpretation of the application of the EXCEL program and other software for the special methodology for automating uncertainty calculations developed by us was carried out, which significantly simplified the work and reduced the time spent by specialists in the metrological laboratory. Basic requirements of comparison of software for calculation, calculation and estimation of uncertainty in the realm of mathematical models of validated techniques are determined. The experimental results of the comparative analysis taking into account the set tasks are presented, the most common and effective universal software for calculating the uncertainty of the results of the experiment. The object of the study is universal software for estimating the uncertainty of measurements and other metrological characteristics of viscometers, structured by types of measurements, in the graphic programming environment. The software can be used both in laboratories and in industrial premises. The workplace can be both a metrological laboratory, the working area of which is a table with instruments, and a production room. As a rule, accredited laboratories do not have a special staff of metrologists or specialists who perfectly understand the basics of mathematical statistics and the concept of measurement uncertainty. The complexity and necessary amounts of calculations that are carried out in assessing the uncertainty of measurements require significant laboratory resources.

Caregiver perceptions and experiences of paediatric emergency department attendance during the COVID-19 pandemic: A mixed-methods study.

During the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, concerns were raised about reduced attendance at hospitals, particularly in paediatric emergency departments, which could result in preventable poorer outcomes and late presentations among children requiring emergency care. We aimed to investigate the impact of COVID-19 on health-seeking behaviour and decision-making processes of caregivers presenting to paediatric emergency services at a National Health Service (NHS) Trust in London. We conducted a mixed-methods study (survey and semi-structured interviews) across two hospital sites between November-December 2020. Data from each study were collected concurrently followed by data comparison. Overall, 100 caregivers participated in our study; 80 completed the survey only, two completed the interview only and 18 completed both. Our quantitative study found that almost two-thirds (63%, n = 62) of caregivers attended the department within two days of their child becoming ill. Our qualitative study identified three major themes which were underpinned by concepts of trust, safety and uncertainty and were assessed in relation to the temporal nature of the pandemic and the caregivers' journey to care. We found most caregivers balanced their concerns of COVID-19 and a perceived "overwhelmed" NHS by speaking to trusted sources, predominantly general practitioners (GPs). Caregivers have adapted their health-seeking behaviour throughout the pandemic as new information and guidance have been released. We identified several factors affecting decisions to attend; some existed before the pandemic (e.g., concerns for child's health) whilst others were due to the pandemic (e.g., perceived risks of transmission when accessing healthcare services). We recommend trusted medical professionals, particularly GPs, continue to provide reassurance to caregivers to seek emergency paediatric care when required. Communicating the hospital safety procedures and the importance of early intervention to caregivers could additionally provide reassurance to those concerned about the risks of accessing the hospital environment.

Faire de la tolérance à l’incertitude une compétence médicale

Uncertainty in inherent to every aspects of medical practice. As the concept of uncertainty in healthcare is still to explore, deciphering the determinants and the roots of this uncertainty would benefit from the insights of various disciplines, such as epistemology, sociology, mathematics, or philosophy. The urgent need to improve physician's ability to cope with uncertainty, has been recently highlighted by the COVID-19 pandemic. Besides, the concept of uncertainty tolerance has been proposed, and could serve as a relevant basis for approaching uncertainty, in medical education. Thus, we propose at first to discuss the uncertainty tolerance framework from Hillen et al. Then, from an educational perspective, we outline some avenues regarding how uncertainty tolerance could be thought, in a competence-based approach, and discuss several educational activities, which have proven efficient in promoting uncertainty tolerance among medical practitioners abroad.

SAĞLIK HİZMETLERİ PİYASASINDA BELİRSİZLİK ÖLÇÜLEBİLİR Mİ?

The subject of uncertainty is a phenomenon that has been researched and discussed in order to make the market more predictable by providing market balances in a historical process. Uncertainty is an important determinant of enterprise and investment for all kinds of markets, and it is effective at increasing and decreasing levels depending on time and events. However, due to the characteristics of the health services market, it is always considered as a factor that has to be taken into account.
 It is considered that the reasons why the concept of uncertainty in the health services market is more pronounced and effective than other markets are mainly due to the various differences in the field of health services, and an acceptance behavior has emerged about the concept of uncertainty in health services.
 In this study, the "uncertainty measures" that can be applied to other markets were evaluated as applicable to the health services market, and health markets were evaluated in terms of uncertainty measures in other markets, based on the hypothesis of "Uncertainty cannot be measured in the Health Services Market". In the study, primarily, the definition of uncertainty in terms of the health services market was made, and the sources of uncertainty in the health market were tried to be determined as in other markets. The most frequently used uncertainty measures have been adapted to the health service market actors about the health services market uncertainty arising from these sources, and in this way, the measurability, quantification, and formulalability of the uncertainty in the health services market have been examined.
 As a result; Quantitative measurement of uncertainty in the healthcare market and making a numerical estimation of the expected uncertainty processes are hypothetically possible. Thanks to the determinable and predictable healthcare market uncertainty values, all actors in the healthcare market will have a higher level of knowledge in decision-making processes, face lower costs in a more balanced market, and make less risky investments.

Risk Management Based on Islamic Boarding School

Uncertainty is often associated with risk, in Islamic economics the concept of uncertainty becomes one of the important pillars in the Islamic risk management process. Nothing in this life is free from risks and facts in every organization and its activities. The purpose of this research is to reveal and explain in depth the implementation of Islamic boarding school risk management.The paradigm used is post-positivistic. This type of research uses case studies. The key informant is the manager of the pesantren. Data analysis was carried out by an interactive analysis of the model from Miles and Huberman. The application of risk management at the Manba'ul Ulum Islamic boarding school in Banyuwangi Regency from the results of the study stated that it was very beneficial/positive, as evidenced by the increase in the number of students studying at the pesantren after experiencing the pandemic period from 2019. Islamic values ​​frame Islamic boarding school risk management activities as a source of inspiration and aspirations. Has been applied by the predecessors and is a character that shapes the santri so that they are not shaken under any conditions, besides that it is also sourced from the Islamic values ​​​​of the Qur'an and hadith as principles, then the educational curriculum is sourced from the book of ridhotun nashihin or akhlaq.

Dynamic measurement applied to anemometer verification

This paper strengthens the concept of uncertainty in measurement by testing an anemometer in a wind tunnel and by employing the Least Squares Method (LSM) to fit a curve to the experimental data. Three test procedures were used to verify the anemometer. In the first experiment, the steady state airflow velocity measured by the wind tunnel instrumentation and the velocity readings carried out by the anemometer under test are compared. A second experiment proposes a new method which consists of taking velocity values from a linear fitting performed on a triangular signal, considered as a standard input signal, and the velocity values obtained from the linear fitting performed on the anemometer response. Both sets of fitted data are compared using the same time values. The third experiment considers the anemometer as a linear time-invariant device, so we apply the input triangular signal to an ideal second-order model and the model output values are compared to the anemometer output signal. The first experiment is static as the velocities are constant during measurement. The second and third experiments are considered dynamic as the quantities involved in the measurement change over time. The velocity values and associated uncertainties obtained by employing the static, linearized and second order methods are presented. An uncertainty increase in the order of 10 when going from the static to the linearized method, was observed. The same order of increase is obtained when comparing the uncertainties associated with the linearized and the second order methods.

A practical approach example to measurement uncertainty: Evaluation of 26 immunoassay parameters.

IntroductionMeasurement uncertainty is a non-negative parameter that characterizes the distribution of all values appropriate to the measured size and is associated with the measured result. In this study, we aimed to compare the results with various suggestions and produce more qualified results by calculating the measurement uncertainties of the immunoassays like fertility hormones, drug concentration tests, cardiac markers, thyroid function tests and tumour markers.Materials and methodsUncertainty calculation was made in accordance with the top-down approach according to Nordtest guide. The 12-month study of internal and external quality assessment results were used. The parameters of drug concentration tests were performed on the Abbott Architect c8000, other hormones/markers on the i2000 of the same brand.ResultsFactors that increased the measurement uncertainty of a test were due to external quality control data. The calculations showed that 13 of 26 parameters satisfied quality requirements. The highest uncertainty value, with 28% belonged to cancer antigen 19-9 test. The lowest value was calculated for prolactin with 8.3%. Dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate and phenytoin performed poorly in terms of measurement uncertainty, although internal and external quality control assessment results were considered favourable for both.ConclusionIt is recommended that the concept of measurement uncertainty, which plays an important role in the total quality performance of the laboratory, should be followed up by the clinical laboratory experts at certain time intervals and should be increased the awareness of clinicians about the subject.

Contestations over Hijrat and postcoloniality

My PhD study explored the experiences of a cohort of Iranian doctoral candidates in New Zealand. This paper presents my response to the unexpected challenge I faced as I collected data and formed my theoretical framework. I found that Western interpretations of non-Western international students largely ignored social-cultural specificities. I navigated this challenge by drawing from the postcolonial concepts of ambivalence, uncertainty and cultural hybridity to make sense of the way Iranian doctoral candidates’ experiences in a Western university were analysed and understood. First, I conceptualised the knowledge journey of the research participants as a Hijrat ‒ an Islamic and Persian cultural metaphor that refers to the experience of departure from one’s homeland. Second, I drew from postcolonial theory to manage the West/non-West binary. This paper offers non-Western doctoral candidates and their Western supervisors an example of how cultural congruence can be understood when completing a PhD study in the West. In a general sense, it is important to acknowledge and critically explore the impacts of past socio-political experiences and practices (e.g., colonisation) and historical knowledge traditions (e.g., Islamic) on present thinking and practices.

CEC07-01 Introduction to TTC – concept, databases, excluded substances and sources of uncertainty

CEC07-01 Introduction to TTC – concept, databases, excluded substances and sources of uncertainty

CALCULATION OF MEASUREMENT UNCERTAINTY IN ASTM D-4737 CALCULATED CETANE INDEX TESTING AND ASTM D-445 KINEMATIC VISCOSITY IN CEPU PPSDM OIL LABORATORY

Uncertainty is a parameter that defines the range of values ​​in which it is estimated that the true measured value lies. The concept of uncertainty is very important for measurement results, because uncertainty expresses the quality of measurement or test results. Measurements and tests have not been declared complete without an uncertainty value. The smaller the value of uncertainty, the more accurate and precise the results of the research or test carried out will be. The purpose of this Field Work Practice is to determine the uncertainty value of the Calculated Cetane Index (CCI) ASTM D-4737 and Kinematic Viscosity ASTM D-445 tests in the Cepu Migas PPSDM laboratory. In testing the measurement uncertainty with CCI ASTM D-4737 and Kinematic Viscosity ASTM D-445 using diesel as a sample, the test was carried out for 7 days with 2 repetitions of the test every day. ± 6,980, and the results of the calculation of uncertainty by testing the Kinematic Viscosity ASTM D-445 is ± 0.40. Based on these results, the data obtained can be accepted because the results obtained are smaller than the reproducibility value.

Administrative Decision-Making Under Conditions of Uncertainty

Abstract. Introduction. Enterprises of Ukraine today are at a new stage of development, which is determined both by pandemic events and changes of a political, financial and global nature, which significantly complicates the management decisionmaking. It is clear that making a management decision is an important stage in the company's activity. Usually, a decision is made as one of many alternatives that are mutually exclusive. It is believed that the decision that allows to obtain the maximum profit is rational. However, today, this is not quite the case. The effective functioning of the economic system as a whole and its individual subjects is determined by a certain level of uncertainty. It is impossible to thoroughly study its behavior without considering this level. Purpose. The purpose of the article is to study the concepts of uncertainty, clarify the levels of uncertainty and determine the features of management decision-making at certain stages of uncertainty in modern dynamic conditions. Results. Management decision-making in conditions of uncertainty is a process that results in the selection of an alternative based on the complex interaction of analysis, forecasting, optimization, economic justification, etc., which occurs in conditions of complete or partial lack of information. The article updates issues related to the functioning of enterprises in conditions of risk and uncertainty. A brief analysis of the crisis situation in which our country and the world found itself was conducted, it was compared with other similar situations, and the main consequences of this situation were outlined. Questions are raised regarding the problems of identification and timely assessment of the level of uncertainty at which the company found itself, since its correct definition will allow effective decisions to be made for further development. The concept of uncertainty is studied, the reasons for its occurrence are analyzed. The main levels of uncertainty and their signs, which determine the peculiarities of decision-making at its individual stages in modern dynamic conditions, are outlined and clarified. An analysis of the features of management decision-making in crisis conditions was carried out. Directions of company behavior and decision-making at different levels of uncertainty are proposed. Conclusions. Underestimating the uncertainty factor leads to choosing a strategy that will not allow the company to protect itself from challenges and threats. After conducting the analysis, we note the dependence of the risk degree on the level of uncertainty. To help in choosing an alternative, it is advisable to use a modern mathematical apparatus. The effectiveness of management decision-making depends on the correct definition of the level and type of uncertainty.

Cognitive excursion analysis of uncertainty concepts based on cloud model

Based on the characteristics of human cognition and the cloud model, the excursion of uncertain concepts by the similarity between uncertain concepts from the perspective of conceptual cognition is studied. Firstly, considering the different meanings of the numerical characters in cloud concept, the properties of cloud concepts similarity are given. Furthermore, in order to reflect the various similarities that may exist in uncertain concept, five similarities between cloud concepts are constructed, specifically include the similarity between concept expectations, the similarity between concept entropy, the similarity between concept hyper entropy, the shape similarity and the overall similarity. Secondly, the rationality of these proposed similarity measurements is illustrated by comparing with the existing methods through the specific data analysis. Finally, two cognitive experiments, including concept cognitive processes without prior knowledge and concept cognitive processes with prior knowledge (including positive prior knowledge and negative prior knowledge), are designed. These experiments are all used to study the excursion in the process of concept cognition by the similarity of cloud concepts. The experiment results show that the proposed similarities are reasonable by comparing the proposed method with the existing ones, and the effectiveness of the proposed method is also verified by the excursion of concept cognition.