Concept Of Risk Assessment Research Articles

RISK ASSESSMENT OF THE AIR POLLUTION FOR INDUSTRIAL & RESIDENTIAL AREA CASE STUDY: EL-MAX AREA, ALEXANDRIA CITY

This papers introduces the concept of air pollution risk assessment (APRA) or health risk assessment (AP-HRA), describes in broad terms how the health risks of outdoor air pollution and its sources are estimated, and gives an overview of the general principles for the proper conduct of an AP-HRA for various scenarios and purposes The main purpose of an AP-HRA is to estimate and communicate the health impact of exposure to air pollution or changes in air pollution in different socioeconomic, environmental, and policy circumstances. The first step of an AP-HRA is to assess the exposure of the target population to specific air pollutants. Monitoring data may be used to estimate the past and current exposure to air pollution for populations living near the monitoring site. In addition, air quality modelling is often used to estimate differences in exposure for different socioeconomic and environmental conditions within the geographical area of interest, and to predict changes in exposure in future policy scenarios. The second step of an AP-HRA is to estimate the health risk associated with the exposure to air pollution. This requires the use of concentration–response functions (CRFs), which quantify the health impact per concentration unit of a particular air pollutant. The third step of an AP-HRA is to quantify and express the uncertainty of the generated estimate of health impact. This is an important and integral component of the results, and it is vital to ensure both that the main message is not lost and that the results produced are understandable by policy-makers and others who do not necessarily have a technical background or expertise in AP-HRA. Results of AP-HRAs are often reported in terms of numbers of attributable deaths or cases of disease, years of life lost, disability-adjusted life years, or change in life expectancy attributable to exposure or a change in exposure to air pollution. These health impacts can then be used to evaluate costs and benefits of policy change in monetary terms.

The margin of internal exposure (MOIE) concept for dermal risk assessment based on oral toxicity data – A case study with caffeine

Route-to-route extrapolation is a common part of human risk assessment. Data from oral animal toxicity studies are commonly used to assess the safety of various but specific human dermal exposure scenarios. Using theoretical examples of various user scenarios, it was concluded that delineation of a generally applicable human dermal limit value is not a practicable approach, due to the wide variety of possible human exposure scenarios, including its consequences for internal exposure. This paper uses physiologically based kinetic (PBK) modelling approaches to predict animal as well as human internal exposure dose metrics and for the first time, introduces the concept of Margin of Internal Exposure (MOIE) based on these internal dose metrics. Caffeine was chosen to illustrate this approach. It is a substance that is often found in cosmetics and for which oral repeated dose toxicity data were available. A rat PBK model was constructed in order to convert the oral NOAEL to rat internal exposure dose metrics, i.e. the area under the curve (AUC) and the maximum concentration (Cmax), both in plasma. A human oral PBK model was constructed and calibrated using human volunteer data and adapted to accommodate dermal absorption following human dermal exposure. Use of the MOIE approach based on internal dose metrics predictions provides excellent opportunities to investigate the consequences of variations in human dermal exposure scenarios. It can accommodate within-day variation in plasma concentrations and is scientifically more robust than assuming just an exposure in mg/kg bw/day.

Are Limits of Concern a useful concept to improve the environmental risk assessment of GM plants?

BackgroundThe European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) has introduced a concept for the environmental risk assessment of genetically modified (GM) plants which foresees the definition of ecological threshold values defining acceptable adverse effects of the GM plant on the environment (Limits of Concern, LoC).MethodsWe analysed the LoC concept by scrutinising its feasibility with regard to important aspects of the environmental risk assessment. We then considered its relationship with protection goals, the comparative safety assessment and the stepwise testing approach. We finally discussed its usefulness for assessing long-term effects, effects on non-target organisms and species of conservation concern.ResultsThe LoC concept is a possible approach to introduce ecological thresholds into environmental risk assessment in order to evaluate environmental harm. However, the concept leaves many important aspects open. Thresholds for environmental harm for protection goals need spatial and temporal differentiation from LoCs used for ERA indicators. Regionalisation of LoCs must be provided for as biodiversity levels and protection goals vary across the EU. Further guidance is needed with respect to the consequences, in case LoCs are exceeded and a link needs to be established between environmentally relevant results from the comparative safety assessment and the LoC concept. LoCs for long-term effects have to be evaluated by long-term monitoring. LoCs for non-target organisms need to be discriminated according to the species and parameters assessed.ConclusionsThe overall LoC concept is considered useful if LoCs are further specified and differentiated. Although LoCs will finally be determined by political decisions, they should be based on scientific grounds in order to increase confidence in the conclusions on the safety of GM plants.

Strateško planiranje sajber odbrane - ka adekvatnijem pravnom okviru i novoj koncepciji procene rizika, izazova i pretnji

Strateško planiranje sajber odbrane - ka adekvatnijem pravnom okviru i novoj koncepciji procene rizika, izazova i pretnji

A New Resilience Rating System for Countries and States

This research presents a quantitative method to assess resilience at the state level. The approach introduced in this work is an evolution of the risk assessment concept. Risk is mainly a function of vulnerability, hazard, and exposure; on the other hand, resilience focuses more on the internal characteristics of a system rather than its vulnerability. To tackle this difference, a new formulation has been introduced for the evaluation of resilience. In this formulation, resilience is a function of hazard, exposure, and intrinsic resilience. Generally, intrinsic resilience deals with the internal characteristics of a system, and it differs from the traditional resilience index that takes into account external factors in its assessment, such as the disaster intensity and the level of exposure. The paper also provides a method to compute the intrinsic resilience of countries. This method is based on the data provided by Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA), which is a work developed by the United Nations (UN). HFA evaluates the inherent resilience of countries based on a number of equally weighted indicators. However, further analysis has shown that the contribution made by each of those indicators toward the intrinsic resilience is different. This discrepancy has necessitated weighting the indicators based on their individual contribution towards the intrinsic resilience. To do that, we introduce the Dependence Tree Analysis (DTA). DTA is a method that determines the correlation between a component and its sub-components (i.e., between intrinsic resilience and its indicators), enabling us to orderly allocate new weights to the indicators to obtain a more representative output for the intrinsic resilience. Finally, a case study composed of 37 states has been conducted in order to illustrate the methodology in all details. Both intrinsic resilience and resilience indexes for each of the states were assessed. This was followed by a comparative analysis in order to test the applicability of the methodology, and the results were in line with the predictions.

Development of Risk Assessment Methodology for Occupational Safety by Work Observation Technique

It is a challenge to prevent occupational accidents in any industrial activities. The aim of this study is to improve safety and reduce the risk of occupational accidents at shipyards by developing a risk assessment methodology using work observation technique. This article describes a concept and methodology of risk assessment for occupational safety and its application. It introduces an effective and useful assessment procedure designed from a database based on the past cases of occupational accidents at shipyards. A quantitative method is developed to understand unsafe working conditions and environment at shipyards. A mobile device is used to collect the work observation data at the shipyard, and some examples of effective hazard measures are suggested. Based on the methodology, a feasibility study was conducted to improve walking safety at a numerical control (NC) cutting process of a shipyard in Japan.

Development of Risk Assessment Methodology for Occupational Safety by Work Observation Technique

It is a challenge to prevent occupational accidents in any industrial activities. The aim of this study is to improve safety and reduce the risk of occupational accidents at shipyards by developing a risk assessment methodology using work observation technique. This article describes a concept and methodology of risk assessment for occupational safety and its application. It introduces an effective and useful assessment procedure designed from a database based on the past cases of occupational accidents at shipyards. A quantitative method is developed to understand unsafe working conditions and environment at shipyards. A mobile device is used to collect the work observation data at the shipyard, and some examples of effective hazard measures are suggested. Based on the methodology, a feasibility study was conducted to improve walking safety at a numerical control (NC) cutting process of a shipyard in Japan.

Оцінка корупційних ризиків у системі державного управління: поняття та зміст

In the article, the main approaches to defining the content and concept of corruption risk assessment are investigated and the definition of corruption risk assessment in the public administration system is provided. The concept of goals, objectives and corruption risk assessment in public administration system are developed and proposed. The mandatory steps in the assessment process of corruption risks in public administration system are revealed and the author’s own vision of their content is proposed. The necessity of creating a methodology for assessing corruption risks and their ranking that will contribute to effective implementation of anti-corruption reforms in Ukraine is substantiated.

Neuroprotection during aortic surgery.

Neurological injury is a major limitation of aortic surgery, whether it involves spinal cord injury following intervention to the thoracoabdominal aorta, or stroke following surgery on the arch and ascending aorta. Despite an extensive body of literature and various proposals, a completely effective strategy to prevent or treat neurological injury remains elusive. In this article, we summarise the evidence for established and emerging strategies, and review current concepts in pathophysiology and risk assessment as they relate to neurological injury.

Landslide Risk Assessment2nd edition. Mark Lee and David Jones . ICE Publishing, London, 2014, £82, hardback, 524pp, ISBN: 9870-7277-5801-9

2nd edition. Mark Lee and David Jones . ICE Publishing, London, 2014, £82, hardback, 524pp, ISBN: 9870-7277-5801-9 In 1997, almost midway through the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction, a group of landslide specialists met in Honolulu to exchange ideas on quantitative risk analysis. This meeting was a reflection of a growing field of landslide risk assessment and the book that followed, a collection of papers from that meeting, became a staple of the field (Cruden & Fell 1997). Almost two decades later, landslide risk assessment is fundamental training for geotechnical engineers, engineering geomorphologists and geologists asked to help communities, industry and the public understand the extent to which they are threatened by slope hazards. Papers on landslide risk assessment proliferate in the scientific literature and in national, provincial and municipal guidelines. Despite the overwhelming interest and an obvious demand, there remain few comprehensive treatments of this topic in a single textbook. Arguably the best known was published by Lee & Jones (2004). In 2014, under the Institution of Civil Engineers publishing house, Lee & Jones provided a second edition (Lee & Jones 2014). The second edition expands on the first by adding five chapters (now 12 rather than seven) and reorganizing some of the data. It updates references and provides new case studies to help illustrate the critical concepts. This edition remains a single voice, comprehensive review of risk assessment concepts. It is well illustrated using …

Integration of transport concepts for risk assessment of pesticide erosion

Environmental contamination by agrochemicals has been a large problem for decades. Pesticides are transported in runoff and remain attached to eroded soil particles, posing a risk to water and soil quality and human health. We have developed a parsimonious integrative model of pesticide displacement by runoff and erosion that explicitly accounts for water infiltration, erosion, runoff, and pesticide transport and degradation in soil. The conceptual framework was based on broadly accepted assumptions such as the convection-dispersion equation and lognormal distributions of soil properties associated with transport, sorption, degradation, and erosion. To illustrate the concept, a few assumptions are made with regard to runoff in relatively flat agricultural fields: dispersion is ignored and erosion is modelled by a functional relationship. A sensitivity analysis indicated that the total mass of pesticide associated with soil eroded by water scouring increased with slope, rain intensity, and water field capacity of the soil. The mass of transported pesticide decreased as the micro-topography of the soil surface became more distinct. The timing of pesticide spraying and rate of degradation before erosion negatively affected the total amount of transported pesticide. The mechanisms involved in pesticide displacement, such as runoff, infiltration, soil erosion, and pesticide transport and decay in the topsoil, were all explicitly accounted for, so the mathematical complexity of their description can be high, depending on the situation.

The role of expertise in dynamic risk assessment: A reflection of the problem-solving strategies used by experienced fireground commanders

Although the concept of dynamic risk assessment has in recent times become more topical in the training manuals of most high-risk domains, only a few empirical studies have reported how experts actually carry out this crucial task. The knowledge gap between research and practice in this area, therefore, calls for more empirical investigation within the naturalistic environment. In this article, we present and discuss the problem-solving strategies employed by 16 experienced operational firefighters using a qualitative knowledge elicitation tool – the critical decision method. Findings revealed that dynamic risk assessment is not merely a process of weighing the risks of a proposed course of action against its benefits, but rather an experiential and pattern recognition process. The article concludes by discussing the implications of designing training curriculum for the less experienced officers using the elicited expert knowledge.

Nusikalstamo elgesio rizikos vertinimas Lietuvoje: esama situacija ir raidos tendencijos

This paper examines the process of risk assessment of criminal behaviour in Lithuania. It addresses the presentation of risk assessment concepts, international and national trends in risk assessment procedures, and analysis of common characteristics of risk assessment instruments adapted in Lithuania. The paper comprises, first, a presentation of positive and statutory innovations related to risk assessment instruments approbation in Lithuania. The authors admit that the Lithuanian correctional system is following new trends of risk assessment. Contemporary and worldwide known risk instruments such as OASys, HCR-20, SVR-20, SARA, B-SAFER, PCL: SV were approved in Lithuania and put into practice. The use of these instruments enables practitioners to provide the scientific, evidence-based risk assessment that is necessary for effective offender punishment and risk management planning. It should be noted, that great attention is provided to risk assessment data reliability and validity to scientific research, thus assuring the qualification of assessors in Lithuania. Secondly, the paper describes difficulties encountered by specialists implementing penal and supervisory reforms. Mostly the discussion is concentrated on the problems related to the application of risk assessment instruments and the interpretation of assessment results in decision-making process related to the offender punishment peculiarities. Though the Lithuanian Justice system is implementing risk assessment as an obligatory procedure, however, recently it is mostly concentrated on the general risk assessment; the specified risk (e.g., sexual, violent) assessment is applied more rarely. In result, the specified risk assessment is not emphasised in the social research conclusions of parole. Accordingly, the parole commission and court representatives have no possibility to consider this type of information in making their decisions. The attention should also be directed to the practitioners’ work overload problems. The increasing number of criminals is related to the increasing demand of risk assessment procedures and risk management planning. However, the number of specialists working in this area and offenders that should be assessed is disproportionate. It leads to the constant work overload and turnover of qualified staff. Lastly, the paper presents recommendations for practitioners on how risk assessment and management practices and processes could be understood, and gives directions for a more proficient risk application of risk assessment instruments. It is obvious that cooperation between scientists and practitioners would lead to a more effective application of assessment instruments.

Conceptual Questions and Challenges Associated with the Traditional Risk Assessment Paradigm for Nanomaterials

Risk assessment is an evidence-based analytical framework used to evaluate research findings related to environmental and public health decision-making. Different routines have been adopted for assessing the potential risks posed by substances and products to human health. In general, the traditional paradigm is a hazard-driven approach, based on a monocausal toxicological perspective. Questions have been raised about the applicability of the general chemical risk assessment approach in the specific case of nanomaterials. Most scientists and stakeholders assume that the current standard methods are in principle suitable, but point out that experimental aspects and practical guidelines need specific adaptations. Beyond this laboratory level, risk assessment of nanomaterials also faces a number of substantive and procedural limitations, which are intrinsically attributed to the general orthodoxy of the risk assessment concept. Moreover, the developed formalism used to organize scientific knowledge is closely interlinked with the underlying governance design and the mode of interaction between the two spheres of ‘science’ and ‘decisions’. This contribution will provide a closer look at the evolution of different institutional settings for risk assessment in the context of decision-making. Improved risk governance frameworks with different narratives, process designs and procedural elements will be compared. The question of a general principle of enhanced organization of risk assessment will be discussed taking account of the barriers of substantive and procedural limitations in the special case of nanomaterials.

Determination of Noise Level Specific to Pyrotechnic Articles for Professional Use, in Order to Evaluate the Level of Professional Risk

The paper presents a theoretical and practical approach to the concept of risk assessment of exposure to noise, specific to activity for use of pyrotechnic articles Category 4, from the perspective of ensuring the security of the effect resulting after fireworks displaying with these types of pyrotechnic products. For estimation and risk assessment using these types of products, researches has been undertaken to make an evaluation process procedure in order to provide data and information to prevent and combat the causes that may create a hazard.

Modeling sensitivity to climate change and estimating the uncertainty of its impact: A probabilistic concept for risk assessment in forestry

Many uncertainties emerge dealing with future climate conditions and their possible impacts on forests. In this paper we suggest a probabilistic approach extending existing ensemble species distribution modeling concepts by addressing important sources of uncertainty. We exemplify our approach using European beech as the target tree species and bioclimatic predictors derived from WorldClim data. Model parameter uncertainty is represented by 1000 parameter samples from a Bayesian generalized linear model. Climate change impact (CCI) is based on 63 different climate model outputs using four RCP-scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways) in addition to the parameter uncertainty. The proposed difference of the probability of occurrence pocc to a predefined threshold, allows for evaluation of parameter uncertainty as well as for the uncertainty of future climate and describes the changing niche position. Further, we suggest the probability that the probability of occurrence exceeds a predefined threshold (pexc) as a metric for the distance of a site to the niche edge. These metrics are unambiguously determinable, intuitive and evident. Stands at a central, a marginal and an intermediate niche position are taken to exemplify deduction and application of pocc and pexc. A regional exercise shows how a map of pexc may support forest management planning and decision making under severe uncertainty. A key advantage of our novel metrics is the reformulation of common species distribution model (SDM) outputs in terms of risk thereby accounting for two important sources of uncertainty.

In Response: Adverse outcome pathways--An industry perspective.

In Response: Adverse outcome pathways--An industry perspective.

An effective set of principles for practical implementation of marine cumulative effects assessment

Abstract The term “cumulative effects assessment” is frequently used yet the underlying principles and definitions are poorly specified. Consequently, there is no consistency or standardisation in approaches leaving marine managers and developers perplexed on how best to discharge their legal obligations to undertake cumulative effects assessment. This paper explores some of the origins of the terminology and re-interprets how these may best be applied to standardise the vocabulary and approaches to cumulative effects assessment. We define cumulative effects assessment as a systematic procedure for identifying and evaluating the significance of effects from multiple sources/activities and for providing an estimate on the overall expected impact to inform management measures. The analysis of the causes (source of pressures and effects), pathways and consequences of these effects on receptors is an essential and integral part of the process. Environmental risk assessment concepts, in particular sound problem formulation, have been used to provide a clear structure for cumulative effects assessment. We recommend that risk screening, prioritisation and evaluation should be a critical component of cumulative effects assessment to facilitate a filtering of the complex issues for consideration of the likelihood of exposure of receptors to pressures and the likelihood of a receptor responding to those pressures. This paper is intended to provide practical assistance to marine environmental impact assessment practitioners, marine environmental regulators and policy makers.

Assessing risk for terrorism involvement.

The challenge of counterterrorism focuses increasingly on prevention. In this effort, nations are starkly confronted with questions about which people are likely to engage in terrorist action. Though a variety of risk assessment technologies are available for a range of populations and types of violent behavior, a robust empirical foundation does not yet exist for understanding the risk of terrorism or involvement in violent extremist activity. A structured assessment process that is systematic, transparent, and reliant on current evidence would serve the interests of both procedural fairness and substantive security, but a simple process of tallying risk factors is unlikely to be effective. This study outlines some of the foundational concepts and challenges for developing approaches to assess individuals’ risk of terrorism involvement and violent extremist activity. It begins by examining the concept of risk assessment as it pertains to involvement in terrorism. Next, it suggests a series of guiding principles for developing a risk assessment approach. Finally, it outlines what a formulation-based risk assessment model for terrorist involvement might look like, at least conceptually.

On how to understand and acknowledge risk

In Norway two concepts in risk assessment and management – risikoforståelse and risikoerkjennelse – have recently been given much attention, particularly in the oil and gas industry and in societal safety and security contexts. The former concept corresponds quite well to ‘risk understanding’ but the latter does not have an exact counterpart in English – the best term seems to be ‘risk acknowledgement’. The discourse related to these two concepts has given us new general insights concerning the risk concept and its practical use, and the purpose of the present paper is to point to and discuss the main observations made. A main conclusion of the paper is that justified beliefs – what we refer to as knowledge – and the processes of generating these beliefs is an essential feature of both these concepts.