Concept Of Uncertainty Research Articles

Decision-Dependent Uncertainty Modeling in Power System Operational Reliability Evaluations

The integration of the variable renewable energies makes the operation conditions of the power system ever-changeable. Consequently, the power system operational reliability evaluation is increasingly important. This paper introduces the concept of decision-dependent uncertainty (DDU) in the operational reliability evaluation. Unlike the exogenous uncertainties, DDU reveals that the decisions of the system operation could significantly affect the resolution of the uncertainties which influence the reliability metrics. In this paper, the proposed DDU modeling method links the device reliability indices, i.e., the forced outage rate, and the operational-decision variables. The impacts of DDU on operational reliability are analyzed based on a reliability-constrained stochastic unit commitment (UC) model. An adaptive reliability improvement UC (ARIUC) algorithm is proposed to efficiently solve the problem. Case studies underline the necessity of considering DDU in power system operational reliability evaluations.

Confidence as Likelihood

Confidence and likelihood are fundamental statistical concepts with distinct technical interpretation and usage. Confidence is a meaningful concept of uncertainty within the context of confidence-interval procedure, while likelihood has been used predominantly as a tool for statistical modelling and inference given observed data. Here we show that confidence is in fact an extended likelihood, thus giving a much closer correspondence between the two concepts. This result gives the confidence concept an external meaning outside the confidence-interval context, and vice versa, it gives the confidence interpretation to the likelihood. In addition to the obvious interpretation purposes, this connection suggests two-way transfers of technical information. For example, the extended likelihood theory gives a clear way to update or combine confidence information. On the other hand, the confidence connection means that intervals derived from the extended likelihood have the same status as confidence intervals. This gives the extended likelihood direct access to the frequentist probability, an objective certification not directly available to the classical likelihood.

SYSTEM-INFORMATION APPROACH TO UNCERTAINTY OF PROCESS AND SYSTEM PARAMETERS

The subject matter of research in the article is a system-information approach to the uncertainty of the parameters of processes and systems of the technosphere as one of the scientific directions of using information theory in metrology and other scientific areas. The system-information approach is based on the definition of the term "information" of the properties of the system, its content and meaning. The solution of the basic problem in metrology, obtaining "information" of the quantitative characteristics of the true value of the properties of objects and phenomena that reveal the regularities of the environment, is a complex scientific problem. The instrument for obtaining information about the properties of the system is the measurement process. One of the directions in the development of measurement theory is the concept of uncertainty. The goal of the work is to research of non-traditional solutions to problems of technical-cybernetic systems based on the system-information approach to the uncertainty of the parameters of processes and systems. The article solves the following tasks: to analyze the assessment of the parameters of technological processes and systems based on the system-information approach; to develop system-information methods and algorithms for the effective use of discrete-probabilistic information in technical-cybernetic systems; to develop principles and approaches for using the system-information assessment of the uncertainty of the Planck units, use of system-information modeling in various scientific directions. The following methods are used: system-information approach to processes and systems, methodology of system-information modeling of the measured value; system information methodology for the assessment of the measured quantity and uncertainty. The following results were obtained: developed a system-information methodology for assessing the nominal parameter has been developed, which provides indirect control over the independent parameters associated with it; systemic and information methods for the effective use of discrete-probabilistic information in technical and cybernetic systems have been developed; a system-information methodology for calculating the energy equivalent of product performance indicators has been developed; the principle of calculating the efficiency of manufacturing a product based on the energy equivalent of Planck units is formulated. Conclusions: The solution of the set tasks on the basis of the system-information approach to the uncertainty of the parameters of processes and systems makes it possible, from the system-information point of view, to study the regularities of the stages of the life cycle of technical-cybernetic systems and conservation laws.

Prognostic uncertainty in multiple sclerosis: A concept analysis.

To report an analysis of the concept of prognostic uncertainty in patients with multiple sclerosis (MS). The complexity and ambiguity involved in a diagnosis of MS lead to the occurrence of prognostic uncertainty among patients. A concept analysis is presented that analyses what prognostic uncertainty means to those experiencing the transition between relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis and secondary progressive multiple sclerosis. Concept analysis. PubMed, Ovid Medline, Cumulative Index for Nursing and Allied Health Literature databases were searched for literature published within the last 10years using combinations of the terms prognostic and diagnostic uncertainty, and multiple sclerosis along with archival referencing. The Walker and Avant method was used to analyse the concept of prognostic uncertainty in patients with MS. The defining attributes identified that provide additional context to prognostic uncertainty are illness uncertainty, intolerance of uncertainty and progressive dwindling. Related, contrary, model and borderline cases are presented to further discuss the application of the key attributes to the concept. There are limited data on prognostic uncertainty and multiple sclerosis; however, patients and physicians express uncertainty in understanding one's disease trajectory and determining when a patient with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis has entered the secondary progressive multiple sclerosis disease course leading to ineffective communication and frustration. Genetics and genomics have the potential to provide a prognostic factor for addressing the concept of uncertainty as it relates to persons with multiple sclerosis. Moving beyond the concept analysis, a case is made for nurse involvement in genetic and genomic research to conduct trials, translate, and apply these findings to clinical practice and nursing curricula, addressing the uncertainty experienced by those afflicted with chronic illnesses, such as multiple sclerosis.

A General Mathematical Approach Based on the Possibility Theory for Handling Measurement Results and All Uncertainties

The concept of measurement uncertainty was introduced in the 1990s by the “Guide to the expression of uncertainty in measurement”, known as GUM. The word uncertainty has a lexical meaning and reflects the lack of exact knowledge or lack of complete knowledge about the value of the measurand. Thanks to the suggestions in the GUM and following the mathematical probabilistic approaches therein proposed, an uncertainty value can be found and be associated to the measured value. In the last decades, however, other methods have been proposed in the literature, which try to encompass the definitions of the GUM, thus overcoming its limitations. Some of these methods are based on the possibility theory, such as the one known as the RFV method. The aim of this paper is to briefly recall the RFV method, starting from the very beginning and the initial motivations, and summarize in a unique paper the most relevant obtained results.

양자물리학의 불확실성과 이중적 자아: 톰 스토파드의 『햅굿』

This paper tries to read how Tom Stoppard makes use of the notion of quantum mechanics which illuminates a world of probabilities in Hapgood (1988). Hapgood combines Spy Thriller which represents some sort of objective reality with the predictable world of international espionage.<BR> Stoppard dramatizes the relativity and uncertainty in the real world by linking between the ambiguities of human personality, like a double agent and an identical twin agent, and the duality of light which means light can be both wave and particle. The play draws an analogy between the duality in particle physics and the duality in human personality.<BR> This analysis focuses on the parallels between quantum mechanics and the international espionage as a metaphor for the concept of uncertainty which link the dual nature respectively. The dual nature of a single individual operates in contrast between being personal and professional in the world of espionage. Stoppard invites and leads us to find and see the dual nature within the single self and the uncertainty of the person’s being as a new possibility of epistemology.

Is economics of restoration helping with decision-making challenges? Insights guided by bibliometrics

Society is already seeing the ecological and economic benefits from restoration projects. However, the challenge is much bigger than the current efforts from ecologists and economists around the world. The Economics of Restoration is the interdisciplinary research field that is believed to have the necessary tools and instruments to solve this restoration gap, yet a better use and understanding of economic aspects and concepts are still needed. A bibliometric analysis of the field of economics of restoration was done in this study. Bibliometrics can offer insights on the intellectual structure of a discipline and thus indicate future paths for research development. The goal of this study was to identify important and influential economics of restoration research themes and key topics that will strengthen decision-making processes for restoration actions if better addressed in the future. The analysis reveals that few studies go beyond costs, lacking a full estimation of benefits. Economic concepts of uncertainty, public goods and specificity of natural capital are not well incorporated yet, and the relationship between governments and markets, as well as the one between communities and investments, require more attention to scale-up restoration worldwide. This study is believed to be the first one using bibliometrics to guide a discussion around economics of restoration and can be subsequentially replicated in other disciplines.

How Institutions Shape Uncertainty and Risk

Purpose: The study proposes a conceptual framework on how institutions influence risk and uncertainty. Beyond the nuances in defining the concepts in the existing literature, the role of institutions in shaping risks and uncertainties remains understudied. This paper adopts the new institutional economics (NIE) perspective to revisit the concepts of risk and uncertainty and provide a deeper reflection about its interactions with formal and informal institutions. Method: Our conceptual model is based on four propositions that support a theoretical explanation about the relationships between institutions and uncertainties, institutions and risks, and uncertainties and risks. Findings: While formal institutions have a primary role in reducing uncertainties, informal institutions can be seen as a source of risk. These findings imply firms’ strategic decisions. In this regard, we also provide a research agenda for future empirical studies in the area. Originality/value: The study highlights the importance of institutions for companies to deal with risk and uncertainties. The institutions have a primary role in defining the “known part” of the uncertainty, allowing the companies to evaluate the different scenarios for decision-making. Theoretical/Methodological Contributions: This study differentiates risk and uncertainty interaction according to institutional theory. Additionally, we offer an academic discussion of how formal and informal institutions can shape risks and uncertainties.

A concept analysis of family caregivers' uncertainty of patient's illness.

To analyze and examine the concept of uncertainty of the patient's illness among family caregivers. Promoting family caregivers' health is significant in nursing. Family caregivers may experience uncertainty related to their loved ones' illness. A lack of clarity exists regarding the uncertainty concept among family caregivers and its implications in nursing. A review of the literature that focused on family caregivers of adult patients using PubMed, CINAHL, and Scopus databases was completed. The Walker and Avant framework was applied to identify the attributes, antecedents, and consequences of family caregivers' uncertainty. Eight articles were analyzed. Attributes of family caregivers' uncertainty included the patient's illness probability and family caregivers' perception of the illness. Antecedents included the characteristics of the patient's illness, factors associated with the family caregivers' perception of the illness, and family responsibilities of caregiving. The consequences included family caregivers' emotional, psychological, and financial outcomes. Family caregivers' uncertainty is defined as the perception of the inability to process information regarding the patient's illness trajectory when caring for significant others' illness. Individuals can perceive uncertainty differently as a patient-facing uncertainty in illness versus a family caregiver facing uncertainty of their loved ones' illness.

Point coverage with heterogeneous sensor networks: A robust optimization approach under target location uncertainty

In this study, we consider the point coverage problem and aim to locate heterogeneous sensor networks under target uncertainty. Target location uncertainty phenomenon is commonly seen in some fields such as military and security, where only probabilistic information regarding target location is usually available via intelligence, historical data, and expert opinions. In these circumstances, possible scenarios are usually generated and several courses of action are developed to address these scenarios. Taking into account this real-life phenomenon as well as the realistic constraints associated with it, we firstly develop an integer nonlinear program for locating a heterogeneous sensor network with hub-spoke topology for a given target scenario. In this topology, wireless sensors constitute the lower level network, while the hubs constitute the upper level by collecting data from the sensors and fusioning the transmitted detection data. Secondly, we propose a linear approximation for the nonlinear model which provides computational efficiency for solving large size problem instances. Then, utilizing the p-robustness concept, we develop a robust counterpart of the deterministic formulation which accounts for multiple scenarios simultaneously and generates a compromise solution that ensures a predefined threshold for regret percentages of individual scenarios. For the first time in the point coverage literature, we define the heterogeneous sensor network location problem within target location uncertainty concept and propose an efficient robust optimization approach for solving it. Finally, we present an illustrative case study to show the applicability of the proposed robust solution approach.

Mapping Flood Risk Uncertainty Zones in Support of Urban Resilience Planning

&lt;p&gt;River flooding and urbanization are processes of different character that take place worldwide. As the latter tends to make the consequences of the former worse, together with the uncertainties related to future climate change and flood-risk modeling, there is a need to both use existing tools and develop new ones that help the management and planning of urban environments. In this article a prototype tool, based on estimated maximum land cover roughness variation, the slope of the ground, and the quality of the used digital elevation models, and that can produce flood ‘uncertainty zones’ of varying width around modeled flood boundaries, is presented. The concept of uncertainty, which urban planners often fail to consider in the spatial planning process, changes from something very difficult into an advantage in this way. Not only may these uncertainties be easier to understand by the urban planners, but the uncertainties may also function as a communication tool between the planners and other stakeholders. Because flood risk is something that urban planners always need to consider, these uncertainty zones can function both as buffer areas against floods, and as blue-green designs of significant importance for a variety of ecosystem services. As the Earth is warming and the world is urbanizing at rates and scales unprecedented in history, we believe that new tools for urban resilience planning are not only urgently needed, but also will have a positive impact on urban planning.&lt;/p&gt;

Minimum Time for the Evolution to a Nonorthogonal Quantum State and Upper Bound of the Geometric Efficiency of Quantum Evolutions

We present a simple proof of the fact that the minimum time TAB for quantum evolution between two arbitrary states A and B equals TAB=ℏcos−1A|B/ΔE with ΔE being the constant energy uncertainty of the system. This proof is performed in the absence of any geometrical arguments. Then, being in the geometric framework of quantum evolutions based upon the geometry of the projective Hilbert space, we discuss the roles played by either minimum-time or maximum-energy uncertainty concepts in defining a geometric efficiency measure ε of quantum evolutions between two arbitrary quantum states. Finally, we provide a quantitative justification of the validity of the inequality ε≤1 even when the system only passes through nonorthogonal quantum states.

The Axioms in My Understanding from Many Years of Experience

This is a discussion article that should raise more questions than answers. We write our own point of view about the concept of axioms. We list several examples, mostly known to readers, and focus on examples where the axioms produce separate areas of studies and applications. The classic definitions are schematically presented since these are well known. We briefly notice how they generated various other fields of development. Set theory is, in our opinion, the fundamental for new areas of development. Our focus is on some recent axioms such as uncertainty, probability, and new concepts and results related to these fields. The emphasis is on the meaning of an undefined concept and on its measuring.

Frank Knight, uncertainty and knowledge spillover entrepreneurship

AbstractIn his seminal 1921 book,Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit, Frank Knight distinguished uncertainty and risk. This paper applies Knight's concept of uncertainty to knowledge generated in incumbent organizations to explain the inherent difficulty in assessing potential innovations along with the key role played by knowledge spillover entrepreneurship as a conduit for transforming new knowledge created by an incumbent organization but ultimately commercialized through the creation of a new firm and innovation. Knowledge is inherently uncertain and constitutes what is characterized as the knowledge filter impeding innovative activity in the context of incumbent firms and organizations. The organizational and institutional context and market uncertainty can either facilitate or impede the spillover of knowledge from the firm where it was created to the entrepreneurial startup where it is transformed into innovation. The empirical evidence based on a large, unbalanced panel of 9,126 UK firms constructed from six consecutive waves of a community innovation survey and annual business registry survey during 2002–2014. Implications for managers, scholars, and policymakers are provided.

Legal Uncertainty in the context of the Foundations of Criminal Justice Transformation

Based on the analysis of the history of legal science and law enforcement practice, the paper considers the prerequisites for the conceptualization of the phenomenon of uncertainty in law. The author offers a historical and rational reconstruction of the transition from the everyday and practical experience of understanding uncertainty to the concept that allows us to formulate the principles of lawmaking and law enforcement that prohibit uncertainty in the law and court decisions. The author explicates the difference between the conceptualization of the phenomenon of uncertainty in the Russian legal literature and similar literature of the English-speaking world, where three different concepts are used to denote it: indeterminacy, vagueness and uncertainty. The paper analyzes the difficulties that arise in the implementation of the desire to integrate the system of Russian law into the legal space of the European Union, where the principle of legal certainty is one of the main instruments of integration. The author analyzes in detail the assessment of prospects and the significance of the principle of legal certainty in the practice of implementing the idea of the rule of law, and considers the paradoxes that arise in this case.Examples from the practice of the European Court of Human Rights, when certain decisions are criticized because of non-compliance by lawmakers with the principle of legal certainty, confirm the essential importance of ideological and value bases in the systems of modern law. The paper examines the significance of the philosophical and theoretical-conceptual grounds for the inclusion of the general scientific concept of uncertainty in the private scientific methodology of legal research. The differences in the interpretation of the phenomenon of uncertainty in linguistics, physics, economics, philosophy, logic and other sciences are determined. It is concluded that it is necessary to attract funds and methods of interdisciplinary research for the further development of the theory of legal uncertainty.

Institutions, uncertainty, and entrepreneurial judgment

AbstractEntrepreneurial action takes place in a context of Knightian uncertainty. In order to overcome this uncertainty, entrepreneurs engage in a process of judgment resulting in a decision about the course of action. Institutions arise mainly to reduce economic friction by providing structure to human interaction and thus reducing uncertainty. However, institutions may also introduce further uncertainty and thus disrupt the judgment process preceding entrepreneurial action. The present paper builds upon recent efforts to integrate the concepts of uncertainty and institutions within the entrepreneurial context. Drawing on Frank H. Knight's seminal insight, the judgment-based view of entrepreneurship, and relevant concepts of entrepreneurial outcomes, the main contribution of the paper lies in the development of a model offering a coherent description of the way institutions affect uncertainty and the entrepreneurial process.

Grow or successfully disengage? Navigating the revolution of South African tower companies

Subject area of the teaching case: The case is suitable for strategy or entrepreneurship modules. It is designed to teach students about the importance of implementing formal processes when entering a growth phase as well as the complexities, unexpected costs, and benefits that growing a business can bring. Student level: The case is aimed at MBA or Master-level students or executive education programmes as part of a strategy or entrepreneurship module. Brief overview of the teaching case: Lattice Towers is a South African company in the telecommunications infrastructure sector. They are struggling to generate sufficient cash flow to sustain operations as a result of poor strategic decision-making regarding tower-build site acquisition. To compound matters, the owner has been struggling with health issues related to the stress caused by the crises that Lattice Towers is going through. Recently, however, a multinational publicly listed behemoth in the telecommunications industry, Helios Towers, offered to acquire the company. The acquisition offer seems like a saving grace to the owner; however, Lattice Towers is deeply personal to the him and he would not like to lose the brand. Furthermore, there is a tremendous opportunity for business growth due to the imminent increase in demand for tower infrastructure. But based on the challenging financial position the business currently finds itself in, he might not have the option to keep the business. Expected learning outcomes: To develop a decision-making framework and strategy to navigate the business life-cycle stages, from survival to growth Understand the concepts of uncertainty, risk, and liquidity premiums that apply to entrepreneurship Understand the stress-related implications for entrepreneurs Understand the psychological costs and benefits of entrepreneurship Understand the personal financial implications for entrepreneurship

Recommendations for the application and follow-up of quality controls in medical laboratories

This is a translation of the paper “Recommendations for the application and follow-up of quality controls in medical biology laboratories” published in French in the journal Annales de Biologie Clinique (Recommandations pour la mise en place et le suivi des contrôles de qualité dans les laboratoires de biologie médicale. Ann Biol Clin (Paris). 2019;77:577-97.). The recommendations proposed in this document are the result of work conducted jointly by the Network of Accredited Medical Laboratories (LABAC), the French Society of Medical Biology (SFBC) and the Federation of Associations for External Quality Assessment (FAEEQ). The different steps of the implementation of quality controls, based on a risk analysis, are described. The changes of reagent or internal quality control (IQC) materials batches, the action to be taken in case of non-conform IQC results, the choice of external quality assessment (EQA) scheme and interpretation of their results as well as the new issue of analyses performed on several automatic systems available in the same laboratory are discussed. Finally, the concept of measurement uncertainty, the robustness of the methods as well as the specificities of near-patient testing and rapid tests are described. These recommendations cannot apply for all cases we can find in medical laboratories. The implementation of an objective alternative strategy, supported with documented evidence, might be equally considered.

When We Know What We Don’t Know: Uncertainty, Ignorance and Speculation in the UK Television Coverage of Airplane Disasters

This article examines how the media deal with absent information by examining representations of uncertainty, ignorance and speculation in the UK television coverage of airplane disasters. Drawing on thematic and discourse analyses, the article argues that there is a development over time whereby two phases can be discerned: (1) the (initial) ignorance phase and (2) the epilogue phase. The former describes coverage that contains an absence of information. The findings show that the reporting in this phase draws on modality and speculation to counterbalance the absence of information regarding the airplane disasters. The epilogue phase factually concludes what happened and brings a form of resolution to the incidents. As a result, information is presented with more certainty than in the ignorance phase. These findings have implications for journalism studies more generally because they refine our understandings about the development of media coverage on events and situate the concepts of uncertainty, ignorance and speculation at the forefront of the discipline.

Undergraduate students’ reasoning about the quality of experimental measurements of covarying secondary data

We have investigated how first-year and second-year university students judge the quality of secondary experimental data consisting of measurements of covarying quantities, and to what extent they consider multiple measurements of covarying quantities as a single data set characterised by its mean and spread. Five cohorts of students at two universities participated in the study. They offered written responses to three open-ended questions. Individual follow-up interviews were conducted with fourteen students that were based on their previous written answers to understand their reasoning in more depth. A fine-grained analysis was undertaken to unpack students’ reasoning by grouping the criteria they used to judge the quality of the data into three broad categories: criteria independent of the data, criteria that based on the variation of the raw data, and criteria based on the variation of the derived quantity. We argue that responses in each category can be linked to different learning objectives. The students proposed various actions to increase the trustworthiness of the covarying data or a conclusion based on it. We have investigated to what extent decisions and proposed actions were consistent. Students generally showed a fragmented and primarily qualitative understanding of the concepts of mean, uncertainty, and line of best fit. Many students proposed to determine the value of a derived quantity by applying the equation relating it to the measurands to individual data points, all data points, or all data points except for outliers. Students appear to consider the best fit line as a tool for eliminating outliers, but much less frequently as a way to determine a derived quantity. We discuss implications for instructional practice and further research.