Greenhouse Gas Concentrations Research Articles

BIOCLIMATIC AND HYDROMINERAL COMPONENTS OF NATURAL RECREATIONAL POTENTIAL OF THE CARPATHIAN REGION OF UKRAINE

Among the components of the natural recreational potential of the Carpathian region of Ukraine, a special place is occupied by bioclimatic and hydromineral resources, therefore the purpose of the work is to assess their features. The bioclimatic component of the natural recreational potential of this region determines the comfort (discomfort) of human sensations and well-being, so it is important to identify possible positive and negative impacts of various climatic factors and their dynamics in mountain and foothill areas during different seasons of the year. The bioclimatic component of the natural recreational potential is assessed from the point of view of the comfort of climatic conditions for the body of a healthy person. The work is based on the results of modeling the average daily values of air temperature (t), wind speed (v) and relative humidity (f) according to the RCP4.5 scenario (trajectory of changes in the average level of greenhouse gases concentration) from 2021 to 2050 and data from the climate cadastre of Ukraine (1961-1990) at three stations (Dolyna, Rava-Ruska, Uzhgorod) in the foothill areas of the region. There was conducted a study of the possible bioclimatic potential of the Carpathian region of Ukraine and trends of its dynamics until 2050. The article analyzes the features of mineral healing waters of four national nature parks of the Ukrainian Carpathians.

A Synthesis of Global Coastal Ocean Greenhouse Gas Fluxes

AbstractThe coastal ocean contributes to regulating atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations by taking up carbon dioxide (CO2) and releasing nitrous oxide (N2O) and methane (CH4). In this second phase of the Regional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes (RECCAP2), we quantify global coastal ocean fluxes of CO2, N2O and CH4 using an ensemble of global gap‐filled observation‐based products and ocean biogeochemical models. The global coastal ocean is a net sink of CO2 in both observational products and models, but the magnitude of the median net global coastal uptake is ∼60% larger in models (−0.72 vs. −0.44 PgC year−1, 1998–2018, coastal ocean extending to 300 km offshore or 1,000 m isobath with area of 77 million km2). We attribute most of this model‐product difference to the seasonality in sea surface CO2 partial pressure at mid‐ and high‐latitudes, where models simulate stronger winter CO2 uptake. The coastal ocean CO2 sink has increased in the past decades but the available time‐resolving observation‐based products and models show large discrepancies in the magnitude of this increase. The global coastal ocean is a major source of N2O (+0.70 PgCO2‐e year−1 in observational product and +0.54 PgCO2‐e year−1 in model median) and CH4 (+0.21 PgCO2‐e year−1 in observational product), which offsets a substantial proportion of the coastal CO2 uptake in the net radiative balance (30%–60% in CO2‐equivalents), highlighting the importance of considering the three greenhouse gases when examining the influence of the coastal ocean on climate.

Unraveling the Impact of Climate Change on Fish Physiology: A Focus on Temperature and Salinity Dynamics

In recent decades, climate change has significantly altered the environmental dynamics of aquatic ecosystems, profoundly impacting the intricate balance of life within them. This review paper delves into the multifaceted impacts of climate change on the physiology of aquatic life, emphasizing temperature and salinity as pivotal ecological factors unique to aquatic environments. The intricate relationship between rising global temperatures and their repercussions on freshwater and seawater habitats forms the cornerstone of this exploration. Elevated temperatures and escalating frequency of extreme heatwave events have reshaped the paradigm for fish survival, pushing them beyond optimal temperature thresholds. Furthermore, the study delves into the interconnection of seemingly disparate abiotic factors, where heightened greenhouse gas concentrations amplify coastal winds, precipitating coastal upwelling. The consequence—nutrient‐rich yet oxygen‐deprived waters—fuels a cascade of challenges, inducing hypoxic conditions that significantly impact aquatic organisms. The plight of fish, as ectotherms finely tuned to environmental fluctuations, is underscored, illuminating their susceptibility to temperature variations. The direct correlation between external and internal temperatures, exacerbated by climate‐induced fluctuations, accentuates the urgency of addressing climate change’s impact on aquatic habitats. This review disentangles the complex web of interconnected environmental shifts, illuminating their far‐reaching repercussions on the physiology of aquatic life. It emphasizes the imperative for collective endeavors aimed at understanding and addressing the challenges imposed by our evolving climate on these indispensable ecosystems.

Joint-outcome prediction markets for climate risks.

Predicting future climate requires the integration of knowledge and expertise from a wide range of disciplines. Predictions must account for climate-change mitigation policies which may depend on climate predictions. This interdependency, or "circularity", means that climate predictions must be conditioned on emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs). Long-range forecasts also suffer from information asymmetry because users cannot use track records to judge the skill of providers. The problems of aggregation, circularity, and information asymmetry can be addressed using prediction markets with joint-outcome spaces, allowing simultaneous forecasts of GHG concentrations and temperature. The viability of prediction markets with highly granular, joint-outcome spaces was tested with markets for monthly UK rainfall and temperature. The experiments demonstrate these markets can aggregate the judgments of experts with relevant expertise, and suggest similarly structured markets, with longer horizons, could provide a mechanism to produce credible forecasts of climate-related risks for policy making, planning, and risk disclosure.

Pengaruh Konsentrasi Crude Enzim Bacillus subtilis terhadap Kadar Gula dan Bioetanol Hasil Fermentasi Kulit Singkong Menggunakan Zymomonas mobilis

Bioethanol is an environmentally friendly and renewable alternative fuel. The use of alternative fuels is necessary because petroleum fuels make a major contribution to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, especially CO2. Bioethanol can be obtained from materials containing carbohydrates such as cassava peel which has a high carbohydrate content, namely 4.55%. The aim of this research was to see the effect of the crude enzyme concentration of Bacillus subtilis on the results of sugar and bioethanol content of cassava peel fermentation with Zymomonas mobilis and to find out the crude enzyme concentration that had the greatest influence. This research is an experimental study with the independent variable, namely the concentration of crude cellulase enzyme B. subtilis with concentrations of 0%, 2.5%, 5%, 7.5%, 10%, 12.5%, 15%, and 17.5% , and the dependent variables are sugar content from hydrolysis and bioethanol content from the fermentation process. The data obtained were analyzed using the ANOVA test and Duncan's test. The results of research on the effect of crude Bacillus subtilis cellulase enzyme concentrations of 8 concentrations have an influence on the amount of sugar and bioethanol produced from fermentation of cassava peel with Zymomonas mobilis. Crude Bacillus subtilis cellulase enzyme with a concentration of 17.5% had the greatest influence on sugar and bioethanol levels with a sugar content of 0.37% and a bioethanol content of 1.67%.

Size matters: Aerobic methane oxidation in sediments of shallow thermokarst lakes

AbstractShallow thermokarst lakes are important sources of greenhouse gases (GHGs) such as methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2) resulting from continuous permafrost thawing due to global warming. Concentrations of GHGs dissolved in water typically increase with decreasing lake size due to coastal abrasion and organic matter delivery. We hypothesized that (i) CH4 oxidation depends on the natural oxygenation gradient in the lake water and sediments and increases with lake size because of stronger wind‐induced water mixing; (ii) CO2 production increases with decreasing lake size, following the dissolved organic matter gradient; and (iii) both processes are more intensive in the upper than deeper sediments due to the in situ gradients of oxygen (O2) and bioavailable carbon. We estimated aerobic CH4 oxidation potentials and CO2 production based on the injection of 13C‐labeled CH4 in the 0–10 cm and 10–20 cm sediment depths of small (~300 m2), medium (~3000 m2), and large (~106 m2) shallow thermokarst lakes in the West Siberian Lowland. The CO2 production was 1.4–3.5 times stronger in the upper sediments than in the 10–20 cm depth and increased from large (158 ± 18 nmol CO2 g−1 sediment d.w. h−1) to medium and small (192 ± 17 nmol CO2 g−1 h−1) lakes. Methane oxidation in the upper sediments was similar in all lakes, while at depth, large lakes had 14‐ and 74‐fold faster oxidation rates (5.1 ± 0.5 nmol CH4‐derived CO2 g−1 h−1) than small and medium lakes, respectively. This was attributed to the higher O2 concentration in large lakes due to the more intense wind‐induced water turbulence and mixing than in smaller lakes. From a global perspective, the CH4 oxidation potential confirms the key role of thermokarst lakes as an important hotspot for GHG emissions, which increase with the decreasing lake size.

From Emissions to Environmental Impact: Understanding the Carbon Footprint

The atmosphere is being disturbed by an increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases, resulting in severe global warming and related effects. Each day, more comparable carbon dioxide is released into the atmosphere because of industrial processes, transportation, animal activities, lighting, cooking, heating, and illumination. The term "carbon footprint" refers to the number of greenhouse gases that a person, a nation, or an organization emits because of their activities. The methodologies for calculating carbon footprints are still being developed, but they are becoming a vital tool for managing greenhouse gases. This review article discusses the carbon footprint, measurement methods, and other important information. In the future, it is critical to keep developing and enhancing techniques for evaluating the environmental effect, including creating more thorough and consistent systems for computing carbon footprints. To develop a more comprehensive understanding of the environmental impact of human activities, it will also be crucial to consider environmental effects other than greenhouse gas emissions. These actions will ultimately be essential for reducing the impact of climate change and maintaining the health and well-being of our planet.

Global Warming Towards Human Health: A Literature Review

Global warming is a phenomenon of an increase in the average temperature of the earth's surface due to an increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, which not only affects the global ecosystem and climate, but also has a significant impact on human health. These impacts include an increase in heat-related diseases, the spread of infectious diseases, a decrease in air quality, and changes in disease patterns due to climate change. This study aims to identify and analyze the impact of global warming on human health through literature review from various sources such as journal articles, research reports, and health organization documents. The results showed that global warming increases the risk of heat stroke and dehydration, especially in vulnerable groups such as children and the elderly, as well as affecting the geographical distribution of disease vectors such as mosquitoes that can spread malaria and dengue fever. Rising temperatures also worsen air quality by increasing the concentration of surface ozone and airborne particles, which has an impact on the increase in respiratory diseases, as well as changing the seasonal and geographical patterns of diseases, including impacts on people's food security and nutrition. The conclusions of this study underscore the importance of coordinated mitigation and adaptation actions to reduce the health impacts of global warming, including policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, improve health systems, and educate the public on preventive measures, with the need for further research for effective and specific adaptation strategies for different affected regions and populations.

Comparison of PBL Heights from Ceilometer Measurements and Greenhouse Gases Concentrations in São Paulo

This paper presents a study conducted in São Paulo, Brazil, where the planetary boundary layer height (PBLH) was determined using ceilometer data and the wavelet covariance transform method. The retrieved PBLH values were subsequently compared with the concentrations of CO2 and CH4 measured at three distinct experimental sites in the city. The period of study was July 2021. This study also included a comparison between ceilometer data and lidar data, which demonstrated the favorable applicability of the ceilometer data for PBLH estimation. An examination of the correlation between changes in average CO2 concentrations and PBLH values revealed stronger correlations for the IAG and UNICID stations, with correlation coefficients (ρ) of approximately −0.86 and −0.85, respectively, in contrast to the Pico do Jaraguá station, which exhibited a lower correlation coefficient of −0.42. When assessing changes in CH4 concentrations against variations in PBL height, the retrieved correlation coefficients were approximately −0.78 for IAG, −0.66 for UNICID, and −0.38 for Pico do Jaraguá. The results indicated that CO2/CH4 concentrations are negatively correlated with PBL heights, with CO2 concentrations showing more significant correlation than CH4. Additionally, among the three measurement stations, IAG measurements displayed the most substantial correlation. The results from this study contribute to the understanding of the relationship between PBLH and greenhouse gas concentrations, emphasizing the potential of remote sensing systems like ceilometers in monitoring and studying atmospheric processes.

The Characteristics of Land Use in Kemiri-based Agroforestry Patterns in Maros Regency, South Sulawesi Province

One of the leading causes of global warming is land damage due to forest encroachment and the conversion of forest areas. One of the efforts to reduce the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations is maintaining carbon reserves by developing and improving forest vegetation. The agroforestry pattern can solve problems from both environmental and economic aspects in society. Candlenut plants are one of several types of plants that are usually used by applying the agroforestry model. Cenrana, Camba, Mallawa Districts, and Maros Regency are still developing and utilizing candlenut plants on community-owned land and in forest areas. This study aims to determine the spatial characteristics of the candlenut-based agroforestry pattern in Maros Regency. This research uses a quantitative method using remote sensing technology based on Google Earth Engine (GEE). The results of the study show that the agroforestry pattern in Maros Regency (Mallawa District, Camba District, Cenrana District) applies the Agrisilvicultural and Silvipastural patterns, apart from that the community's candlenut agroforestry land is located at a distance that can be reached by the community, namely 0-2 km outside the forest area. The composition of candlenut-based agroforestry and non-agroforestry patterns shows several crop combinations: horticulture, food, and plantations.

An Explainable Evaluation Model for Building Thermal Comfort in China

The concentration of atmospheric greenhouse gases is being amplified by human activity. Building energy consumption, particularly for heating and cooling purposes, constitutes a significant proportion of overall energy demand. This research aims to establish a smart evaluation model to understand the thermal requirements of building occupants based on an open-access dataset. This model is beneficial for making reasonable adjustments to building thermal management, based on factors such as different regions and building user characteristics. Employing Bayesian-optimized LightGBM and SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) methods, an explainable machine learning model was developed to evaluate the thermal comfort design of buildings in different areas and with different purpose. Our developed LightGBM model exhibited superior evaluation performance on the test set, outperforming other machine learning models, such as XGBoost and SVR (Support Vector Regression). The SHAP method further helps us to understand the interior evaluation mechanism of the model and the interactive effect among input features. An accurate thermal comfort design for buildings based on the evaluation model can benefit the carbon-neutral strategy.

Persistent hot spots of CO2 and CH4 in coastal nearshore environments

AbstractNearshore environments are typically supersaturated with the potent greenhouse gases methane and carbon dioxide, due to intense remineralization of the elevated supply of organic carbon in these systems. These environments are characterized by overlapping biogeochemical gradients and heterogeneous morphology, and the overall spatial variability in nearshore greenhouse gas concentrations remains unclear. We measured surface water partial pressures of carbon dioxide and methane synoptically with water quality parameters in the coastal Baltic Sea, covering two ice‐free seasons. The high‐frequency flow‐through data revealed sites with recurring very high partial pressures of carbon dioxide and methane (i.e., hot spots) scattered around the 50 km × 40 km study area, exceeding overall partial pressure averages by 455 μatm (CH4) and 2396 μatm (CO2). High partial pressures were linked with elevated inputs of allochthonous and autochthonous organic matter, underpinning the major role of organic enrichment of coastal environments in global carbon cycling.

Fire transforms effects of terrestrial subsidies on aquatic ecosystem structure and function.

Fire can lead to transitions between forest and grassland ecosystems and trigger positive feedbacks to climate warming by releasing CO2 into the atmosphere. Climate change is projected to increase the prevalence and severity of wildfires. However, fire effects on the fate and impact of terrestrial organic matter (i.e., terrestrial subsidies) in aquatic ecosystems are unclear. Here, we performed a gradient design experiment in freshwater pond mesocosms adding 15 different amounts of burned or unburned plant detritus and tracking the chronology of detritus effects at 10, 31, 59, and 89 days. We show terrestrial subsidies had time- and mass-dependent, non-linear impacts on ecosystem function that influenced dissolved organic carbon (DOC), ecosystem metabolism (net primary production and respiration), greenhouse gas concentrations (carbon dioxide [CO2 ], methane [CH4 ]), and trophic transfer. These impacts were shifted by fire treatment. Burning increased the elemental concentration of detritus (increasing %N, %P, %K), with cascading effects on ecosystem function. Mesocosms receiving burned detritus had lower [DOC] and [CO2 ] and higher dissolved oxygen (DO) through Day 59. Fire magnified the effects of plant detritus on aquatic ecosystem metabolism by stimulating photosynthesis and respiration at intermediate detritus-loading through Day 89. The effect of loading on DO was similar for burned and unburned treatments (Day 10); however, burned-detritus in the highest loading treatments led to sustained hypoxia (through Day 31), and long-term destabilization of ecosystem metabolism through Day 89. In addition, fire affected trophic transfer by increasing autochthonous nitrogen source utilization and reducing the incorporation of 15 N-labeled detritus into plankton biomass, thereby reducing the flux of terrestrial subsidies to higher trophic levels. Our results indicate fire chemically transforms plant detritus and alters the role of aquatic ecosystems in processing and storing carbon. Wildfire may therefore induce shifts in ecosystem functions that cross the boundary between aquatic and terrestrial habitats.

Coastal inundation regime moderates the short-term effects of sediment and soil additions on seawater oxygen and greenhouse gas dynamics: a microcosm experiment

The frequency and persistence of tidal inundation varies along the coastal terrestrial-aquatic interface, from frequently inundated wetlands to rarely inundated upland forests. This inundation gradient controls soil and sediment biogeochemistry and influence the exchange of soils and sediments from terrestrial to aquatic domains. Although a rich literature exist on studies of the influence of tidal waters on the biogeochemistry of coastal ecosystem soils, few studies have experimentally addressed the reverse question: How do soils (or sediments) from different coastal ecosystems influence the biogeochemistry of the tidal waters that inundate them? To better understand initial responses of coastal waters that flood coastal wetlands and uplands, we conducted short-term laboratory experiments where seawater was amended with sediments and soils collected across regional gradients of inundation exposure (i.e., frequently to rarely inundated) for 14 sites across the Mid-Atlantic, USA. Measured changes in dissolved oxygen and greenhouse gas concentrations were used to calculate gas consumption or production rates occurring during seawater exposure to terrestrial materials. We also measured soil and water physical and chemical properties to explore potential drivers. We observed higher oxygen consumption rates for seawater incubated with soils/sediments from frequently inundated locations and higher carbon dioxide production for seawater incubated with soils from rarely inundated transect locations. Incubations with soil from rarely inundated sites produced the highest global warming potential, primarily driven by carbon dioxide and secondarily by nitrous oxide. We also found environmental drivers of gas rates varied notably between transect locations. Our findings indicate that seawater responses to soil and sediment inputs across coastal terrestrial-aquatic interfaces exhibit some consistent patterns and high intra- and inter-site variability, suggesting potential biogeochemical feedback loops as inundation regimes shift inland.

Urbanization influences dissolved organic matter characteristics but microbes affect greenhouse gas concentrations in lakes

Recognition and prediction of dissolved organic matter (DOM) properties and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is critical to understanding climate change and the fate of carbon in aquatic ecosystems, but related data is challenging to interpret due to covariance in multiple natural and anthropogenic variables with high spatial and temporal heterogeneity. Here, machine learning modeling combined with environmental analysis reveals that urbanization (e.g., population density and artificial surfaces) rather than geography determines DOM composition and properties in lakes. The structure of the bacterial community is the dominant factor determining GHG emissions from lakes. Urbanization increases DOM bioavailability and decreases the DOM degradation index (Ideg), increasing the potential for DOM conversion into inorganic carbon in lakes. The traditional fossil fuel-based path (SSP5) scenario increases carbon emission potential. Land conversion from water bodies into artificial surfaces causes organic carbon burial. It is predicted that increased urbanization will accelerate the carbon cycle in lake ecosystems in the future, which deserves attention in climate models and in the management of global warming.

INDIGENOUS PEOPLE ENVIRONMENTAL RIGHTS VULNERABILITY TO CARBON TRADING MECHANISM: A LESSON LEARNED FOR INDONESIA

Developed countries are strictly obligated to reduce carbon emissions due to their industrial activities, contributing to a major concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. This paper aims to provide a basic overview of carbon reduction provisions under Kyoto Protocol and climate change frameworksdevelopment through the years. Practically in developing countries, its provision requires funding and transferring technology schemes by developed countries. The carbon markets emerged from Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) as a so-called eco-friendly project which potentially turns into a new form of capitalism in developing countries along with a tendency to depend on funding and transferring technology itself. Indigenous people are targeted groups directly affected by CDM projects and often neglect their fundamental rights. State is obligated to provide a forum for indigenous people to participate in the level of socializing, consultation, and law-making process of CDM as its nature being the most vulnerable group. Keywords: Carbon trade; climate change; environmental rights; indigenous people

Ice core evidence for an orbital-scale climate transition on the Northwest Tibetan Plateau

The influences on climate in the Northwest Tibetan Plateau (NwTP) have changed on millennial to precessional timescales and have been dependent on the size of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets, Northern Hemisphere summer insolation, and the migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). All these influences control the position and intensity of the westerlies over Central Asia and the Tibetan Plateau and of the Asian Monsoon over South Asia. The top 187.4 m of a 309.7-m ice core (2015GP) drilled on the plateau of the Guliya ice cap contains a 41-kyr climate history of the NwTP, a region where information on past climate and environment is limited. The oxygen isotope ratio (δ18O), and ammonium (NH4+) and dust concentration records from 2015GP show that during the glacial (41–17.5 ka BP) temperature and precipitation in the NwTP were primarily influenced on the precessional timescale by summer insolation, while at millennial resolution the climate was linked to the North Atlantic temperature via the westerlies. During the deglaciation (17.5–12 ka BP) summer insolation remained an important temperature forcing, but the influence of the North Atlantic climate on the NwTP climate weakened as the westerlies shifted northward. The Guliya Holocene δ18O record shows that NwTP climate was no longer in phase with decreasing summer insolation or with North Atlantic climate, perhaps as the moisture source and pathways were more determinative factors in isotopic fractionation than temperature, and/or incoming solar radiation (insolation) forcing was replaced by rising greenhouse gas concentrations as the primary driver of warming in NwTP.

The role of hydrogen in synthetic fuel production strategies

This paper examines the complex relationship between the role of H2, carbon emissions and their impact on global warming and the economy. Despite improvements in energy efficiency, fossil fuel consumption continues to increase. CO2 from industrial activities at high temperatures, such as cement, iron, steel and glass production, have increased rapidly, resulting in an increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. These emissions accelerate climate change, leading to dangerous consequences such as increasing average atmospheric temperature and decreasing agricultural productivity. To combat this, it is advocated to reduce CO2 emissions by using renewable energy sources such as hydroelectricity, biomass, wind solar energy. Current study also discusses carbon reduction methods, including oxy-fuel combustion capture, pre-combustion capture, and post-combustion capture. Despite their unique advantages and disadvantages, these methods play an important role in reducing CO2 emissions from power plants. Additionally, the article highlights the importance of H2 as a cornerstone in the development of synthetic fuels and future energy systems. H2 from renewable sources holds the potential to use carbon-neutral synthetic liquid fuels and revolutionize transportation. Although traditional H2 production methods are associated with emissions, sustainable H2 production techniques can facilitate low-carbon fuel production. The article concludes by highlighting the importance of sustainable energy practices and the role of H2 in reducing carbon emissions, highlighting research efforts to improve production methods, integrate renewable energy, and develop carbon capture technologies for a sustainable future.

Anthropogenic Influence on Decadal Changes in Concurrent Hot and Dry Events over China around the Mid-1990s

The frequency and duration of observed concurrent hot and dry events (HDEs) over China during the growing season (April–September) exhibit significant decadal changes across the mid-1990s. These changes are characterized by increases in HDE frequency and duration over most of China, with relatively large increases over southeastern China (SEC), northern China (NC), and northeastern China (NEC). The frequency of HDEs averaged over China in the present day (PD, 1994–2011) is double that in the early period (EP, 1964–81); the duration of HDEs increases by 60%. Climate experiments with the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM-GOML2) are used to estimate the contributions of anthropogenic forcing to HDE decadal changes over China. Anthropogenic forcing changes can explain 60%–70% of the observed decadal changes, suggesting an important anthropogenic influence on HDE changes over China across the mid-1990s. Single-forcing experiments indicate that the increase in greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations dominates the simulated decadal changes, increasing the frequency and duration of HDEs throughout China. The change in anthropogenic aerosol (AA) emissions significantly decreases the frequency and duration of HDEs over SEC and NC, but the magnitude of the decrease is much smaller than the increase induced by GHGs. The changes in HDEs in response to anthropogenic forcing are mainly due to the response of climatological mean surface air temperatures. The contributions from changes in variability and changes in climatological mean soil moisture and evapotranspiration are relatively small. The physical processes associated with the response of HDEs to GHG and AA changes are also revealed.

A Data Driven Approach for Analyzing the Effect of Climate Change on Mosquito Abundance in Europe

Mosquito-borne diseases have been spreading across Europe over the past two decades, with climate change contributing to this spread. Temperature and precipitation are key factors in a mosquito’s life cycle, and are greatly affected by climate change. Using a machine learning framework, Earth Observation data, and future climate projections of temperature and precipitation, this work studies three different cases (Veneto region in Italy, Upper Rhine Valley in Germany and Pancevo, Serbia) and focuses on (i) evaluating the impact of climate factors on mosquito abundance and (ii) long-term forecasting of mosquito abundance based on EURO-CORDEX future climate projections under different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios. The study shows that increases in precipitation and temperature are directly linked to increased mosquito abundance, with temperature being the main driving factor. Additionally, as the climatic conditions become more extreme, meaning higher variance, the mosquito abundance increases. Moreover, we show that in the upcoming decades mosquito abundance is expected to increase. In the worst-case scenario (RCP8.5) Serbia will face a 10% increase, Italy around a 40% increase, and Germany will reach almost a 200% increase by 2100, relative to the decade 2010–2020. However, in terms of absolute numbers both in Italy and Germany, the expected increase is similar. An interesting finding is that either strong (RCP2.6) or moderate mitigation actions (RCP4.5) against greenhouse gas concentration lead to similar levels of future mosquito abundance, as opposed to no mitigation action at all (RCP8.5), which is projected to lead to high mosquito abundance for all cases studied.