Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Concentration Research Articles

Enhanced future vegetation growth with elevated carbon dioxide concentrations could increase fire activity

Many regions of the planet have experienced an increase in fire activity in recent decades. Although such increases are consistent with warming and drying under continued climate change, the driving mechanisms remain uncertain. Here, we investigate the effects of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations on future fire activity using seven Earth system models. Centered on the time of carbon dioxide doubling, the multi-model mean percent change in fire carbon emissions is 66.4 ± 38.8% (versus 1850 carbon dioxide concentrations, under fixed 1850 land-use conditions). A substantial increase is associated with enhanced vegetation growth due to carbon dioxide biogeochemical impacts at 60.1 ± 46.9%. In contrast, carbon dioxide radiative impacts, including warming and drying, yield a negligible response of fire carbon emissions at 1.7 ± 9.4%. Although model representation of fire processes remains uncertain, our results show the importance of vegetation dynamics to future increases in fire activity under increasing carbon dioxide, with potentially important policy implications.

Estimation of the Concentration of XCO2 from Thermal Infrared Satellite Data Based on Ensemble Learning

Global temperatures are continuing to rise as atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations increase, and climate warming has become a major challenge to global sustainable development. The Cross-Track Infrared Sounder (CrIS) instrument is a Fourier transform spectrometer with 0.625 cm−1 spectral resolution covering a 15 μm CO2-absorbing band, providing a way of monitoring CO2 with on a large scale twice a day. This paper proposes a method to predict the concentration of column-averaged CO2 (XCO2) from thermal infrared satellite data using ensemble learning to avoid the iterative computations of radiative transfer models, which are necessary for optimization estimation (OE). The training data set is constructed with CrIS satellite data, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis v5 (ERA5) meteorological parameters, and ground-based observations. The training set was processed using two methods: correlation significance analysis (abbreviated as CSA) and principal component analysis (PCA). Extreme Gradient Boosters (XGBoost), Extreme Random Trees (ERT), and Gradient Boost Regression Tree (GBRT) are used for training and learning to develop the new retrieval model. The results showed that the R2 of XCO2 prediction built from the PCA dataset was bigger than that from the CSA dataset. These three learning models were verified by validation sets, and the ERT model showed the best agreement between model predictions and the truth (R2 = 0.9006, RMSE = 0.7994 ppmv, MAE = 0.5804 ppmv). The ERT model was finally selected to estimate the concentrations of XCO2. The deviation of XCO2 predictions of 12 TCCON sites in 2019 was within ±1 ppm. The monthly averages of XCO2 concentrations in close agreement with TCCON ground observations were grouped into four regions: Asia (R2 = 0.9671, RMSE = 0.7072 ppmv), Europe (R2 = 0.9703, RMSE = 0.8733 ppmv), North America (R2 = 0.9800, RMSE = 0.6187 ppmv), and Oceania (R2 = 0.9558, RMSE = 0.4614 ppmv).

Species Survey of Leaf Hyponasty Responses to Warming Plus Elevated CO2.

Atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations are increasing and may exceed 800 ppm by 2100. This is increasing global mean temperatures and the frequency and severity of heatwaves. Recently, we showed for the first time that the combination of short-term warming and elevated carbon dioxide (eCO2) caused extreme upward bending (i.e., hyponasty) of leaflets and leaf stems (petioles) in tomato (Solanum lycopersicum), which reduced growth. Here, we examined additional species to test the hypotheses that warming + eCO2-induced hyponasty is restricted to compound-leaved species, and/or limited to the Solanaceae. A 2 × 2 factorial experiment with two temperatures, near-optimal and supra-optimal, and two CO2 concentrations, ambient and elevated (400, 800 ppm), was imposed on similarly aged plants for 7-10 days, after which final petiole angles were measured. Within Solanaceae, compound-leaf, but not simple-leaf, species displayed increased hyponasty with the combination of warming + eCO2 relative to warming or eCO2 alone. In non-solanaceous species, hyponasty, leaf-cupping, and changes in leaf pigmentation as a result of warming + eCO2 were variable across species.

Reprint of: When will Arctic sea ice disappear? Projections of area, extent, thickness, and volume

Rapidly diminishing Arctic summer sea ice is a strong signal of the pace of global climate change. We provide point, interval, and density forecasts for four measures of Arctic sea ice: area, extent, thickness, and volume. Importantly, we enforce the joint constraint that these measures must simultaneously arrive at an ice-free Arctic. We apply this constrained joint forecast procedure to models relating sea ice to atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and models relating sea ice directly to time. The resulting “carbon-trend” and “time-trend” projections are mutually consistent and predict a nearly ice-free summer Arctic Ocean by the mid-2030s with an 80% probability. Moreover, the carbon-trend projections show that global adoption of a lower carbon path would likely delay the arrival of a seasonally ice-free Arctic by only a few years.

The Many Pollutant Identities of Carbon Dioxide: Global Climate Monitoring and Air Pollution Research in New Zealand, 1968–1975

In the late 1960s, New Zealand and the United States collaborated to establish a southern hemispheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) monitoring station on New Zealand’s coastal cliffs. The New Zealand CO 2 Project, as it came to be known, is an underappreciated landmark in the history of environmental monitoring. The archival record of its early years reveals the extent to which efforts to measure atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations interacted closely with one of the most hotly debated political issues of the mid-twentieth century: urban air pollution. The designation of CO 2 as air pollution on a planetary scale had profound legal implications in an era in which clean air legislation increasingly brought air pollution within the scope of governmental regulation, and administrative agencies began to jostle for control of the monitoring enterprise. The precise nature of CO 2 as an air pollutant, however, was difficult to pin down. In these initial years of concerted carbon dioxide monitoring, when the lines between climate science and air pollution research were still blurred, CO 2 developed its many pollutant identities. The nature of these identities – and the ways in which scientists and science administrators negotiated their boundaries – retain their relevance today, as nations continue to link air pollution and climate legislation in the twenty-first century.

Field phenotyping of ten wheat cultivars under elevated CO2 shows seasonal differences in chlorophyll fluorescence, plant height and vegetation indices.

In the context of climate change and global sustainable development goals, future wheat cultivation has to master various challenges at a time, including the rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2]). To investigate growth and photosynthesis dynamics under the effects of ambient (~434 ppm) and elevated [CO2] (~622 ppm), a Free-Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) facility was combined with an automated phenotyping platform and an array of sensors. Ten modern winter wheat cultivars (Triticum aestivum L.) were monitored over a vegetation period using a Light-induced Fluorescence Transient (LIFT) sensor, ground-based RGB cameras and a UAV equipped with an RGB and multispectral camera. The LIFT sensor enabled a fast quantification of the photosynthetic performance by measuring the operating efficiency of Photosystem II (Fq'/Fm') and the kinetics of electron transport, i.e. the reoxidation rates Fr1' and Fr2'. Our results suggest that elevated [CO2] significantly increased Fq'/Fm' and plant height during the vegetative growth phase. As the plants transitioned to the senescence phase, a pronounced decline in Fq'/Fm' was observed under elevated [CO2]. This was also reflected in the reoxidation rates Fr1' and Fr2'. A large majority of the cultivars showed a decrease in the harvest index, suggesting a different resource allocation and indicating a potential plateau in yield progression under e[CO2]. Our results indicate that the rise in atmospheric [CO2] has significant effects on the cultivation of winter wheat with strong manifestation during early and late growth.

Comparing Methodologies for Stomatal Analyses in the Context of Elevated Modern CO2.

Leaf stomata facilitate the exchange of water and CO2 during photosynthetic gas exchange. The shape, size, and density of leaf pores have not been constant over geologic time, and each morphological trait has potentially been impacted by changing environmental and climatic conditions, especially by changes in the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide. As such, stomatal parameters have been used in simple regressions to reconstruct ancient carbon dioxide, as well as incorporated into more complex gas-exchange models that also leverage plant carbon isotope ecology. Most of these proxy relationships are measured on chemically cleared leaves, although newer techniques such as creating stomatal impressions are being increasingly employed. Additionally, many of the proxy relationships use angiosperms with broad leaves, which have been increasingly abundant in the last 130 million years but are absent from the fossil record before this. We focus on the methodology to define stomatal parameters for paleo-CO2 studies using two separate methodologies (one corrosive, one non-destructive) to prepare leaves on both scale- and broad-leaves collected from herbaria with known global atmospheric CO2 levels. We find that the corrosive and non-corrosive methodologies give similar values for stomatal density, but that measurements of stomatal sizes, particularly guard cell width (GCW), for the two methodologies are not comparable. Using those measurements to reconstruct CO2 via the gas exchange model, we found that reconstructed CO2 based on stomatal impressions (due to inaccurate measurements in GCW) far exceeded measured CO2 for modern plants. This bias was observed in both coniferous (scale-shaped) and angiosperm (broad) leaves. Thus, we advise that applications of gas exchange models use cleared leaves rather than impressions.

Elevated CO2 and nitrogen addition enhance the symbiosis and functions of rhizosphere microorganisms under cadmium exposure

Soil microbes are fundamental to ecosystem health and productivity. How soil microbial communities are influenced by elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (eCO2) concentration and nitrogen (N) deposition under heavy metal pollution remains uncertain, despite global exposure of terrestrial ecosystems to eCO2, high N deposition and heavy metal stress. Here, we conducted a four year's open-top chamber experiment to assess the effects of soil cadmium (Cd) treatment (10 kg hm−2 year−1) alone and combined treatments of Cd with eCO2 concentration (700 ppm) and/or N addition (100 kg hm−2 year−1) on tree growth and rhizosphere microbial community. Relative to Cd treatment alone, eCO2 concentration in Cd contaminated soil increased the complexity of microbial networks, including the number links, average degree and positive/negative ratios. The combined effect of eCO2 and N addition in Cd contaminated soil not only increased the complexity of microbial networks, but also enhanced the abundance of microbial urealysis related UreC and nitrifying related amoA1 and amoA2, and the richness of arbuscular mycorrhiza fungi (AMF), thereby improving the symbiotic functions between microorganisms and plants. Results from correlation analysis and structural equation model (SEM) further demonstrated that eCO2 concentration and N addition acted on functions and networks differently. Elevated CO2 positively regulated microbial networks and functions through phosphorus (P) and Cd concentration in roots, while N addition affected microbial functions through soil available N and soil organic carbon (SOC) concentration and microbial network through soil Cd concentration. Overall, our findings highlight that eCO2 concentration and N addition make microbial communities towards ecosystem health that may mitigate Cd stress, and provide new insights into the microbiology supporting phytoremediation for Cd contaminated sites in current and future global change scenarios.

Advances in CCU Methods: Handling Release of Carbon for the Impact of Climate Change

The escalating atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) due to human pursuit which includes fossil fuel combustion, deforestation, and industrial production make contributions considerably to international warming and climate change. Carbon capture and storage (CCS) and carbon capture and usage (CCU) technology provide viable solutions for mitigating those emissions. This paper critiques various CCS and CCU techniques that specialize of their ability applications, stressful situations, and environmental impacts. While CCS technologies provide promising consequences in decreasing international warming capability, they're associated with better acidification and human toxicity in comparison to standard techniques. Alternatively, CCU technologies present an opportunity to convert CO2 into valuable products, thereby imparting a sustainable approach to greenhouse gas reduction. But, these technology face challenges consisting of high expenses, energy consequences, and the need for social recognition. This study provides a comprehensive assessment of modern CCS and CCU technologies, evaluates their environmental affects, and discusses future prospects for their implementation in reducing industrial CO2 emissions.

Ocean Oxygen, Preformed Nutrients, and the Cause of the Lower Carbon Dioxide Concentration in the Atmosphere of the Last Glacial Maximum

AbstractAll else equal, if the ocean's “biological [carbon] pump” strengthens, the dissolved oxygen (O2) content of the ocean interior declines. Confidence is now high that the ocean interior as a whole contained less oxygen during the ice ages. This is strong evidence that the ocean's biological pump stored more carbon in the ocean interior during the ice ages, providing the core of an explanation for the lower atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations of the ice ages. Vollmer et al. (2022, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021PA004339) combine proxies for the oxygen and nutrient content of bottom waters to show that the ocean nutrient reservoir was more completely harnessed by the biological pump during the Last Glacial Maximum, with an increase in the proportion of dissolved nutrients in the ocean interior that were “regenerated” (transported as sinking organic matter from the ocean surface to the interior) rather than “preformed” (transported to the interior as dissolved nutrients by ocean circulation). This points to changes in the Southern Ocean, the dominant source of preformed nutrients in the modern ocean, with an apparent additional contribution from a decline in the preformed nutrient content of North Atlantic‐formed interior water. Vollmer et al. also find a lack of LGM‐to‐Holocene difference in the preformed 13C/12C ratio of dissolved inorganic carbon. This finding may allow future studies to resolve which of the proposed Southern Ocean mechanisms was most responsible for enhanced ocean CO2 storage during the ice ages: (a) coupled changes in ocean circulation and biological productivity, or (b) physical limitations on air‐sea gas exchange.

Optimizing CO2 Photoreduction Through Metal-Organic Frameworks: The Impact of Metal Selection and Composite Structures

The rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration poses significant environmental challenges, including global warming and associated climate change. Metal-organic frameworks (MOFs) have emerged as promising materials for addressing and mitigating CO2 levels due to their high surface area, tunable pore sizes, and customizable metal nodes. This review focuses on the influence of metal selection and MOF composites on the efficiency and stability of MOFs in CO2 photoreduction reactions. The findings underscore the potential of MOF-based catalysts in developing sustainable solutions for CO2 reduction, offering a pathway to mitigate environmental impacts while advancing renewable energy technologies.

Effects of carbonate on ferrihydrite transformation in alkaline media.

Alkaline media widely exist in natural and engineered systems such as semiarid/arid areas, radioactive waste sites, and mine tailings. In these settings, the commonly occurring iron (oxyhydr)oxides differed in their ability to influence the fate of nutrients and contaminants. Due to the substantially increased atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration, carbonate stands to increase in these media. However, how increasing carbonate affects the transformation of poorly crystalline iron (oxyhydr)oxides (e.g., two-line ferrihydrite) under alkaline conditions still remains unclear. Here, kinetics of ferrihydrite transformation were evaluated at pH ∼10 as a function of [carbonate] = 0-286 mM using synchrotron-based X-ray and vibrational spectroscopic techniques. The results showed that carbonate slowed down ferrihydrite transformation slightly and suppressed goethite formation, but promoted hematite formation regardless of its concentration. At low carbonate concentration (11.42 mM), the effect of carbonate on product formation was obvious due to the weak inner-sphere complex; however, at high carbonate concentration (80-286 mM), the effect was retarded because of the adsorption equilibrium of carbonate as well as the initial carbonate adsorption followed by desorption. Moreover, carbonate modified the morphology of hematite from rhombic to ellipsoidal to honeycomb and goethite from rod-like to needle-like to spindle-like due to the inner-sphere adsorption-desorption of carbonate and adsorption of hydroxyl ions on reactive sites of iron (oxyhydr)oxides in alkaline media. The results suggest that the concurrently increasing carbonate with enhanced atmospheric CO2 could control the transformation and occurrence of iron (oxyhydr)oxides in natural and engineered environments and have important implications for the biogeochemical cycles of iron and carbon.

Effects of global warming and Tibetan Plateau uplift on East Asian climate during the mid-Cretaceous

Sedimentary records indicate that subtropical and mid-latitude East Asia exhibited considerable drying and wetting, respectively, during the mid-Cretaceous, which is considered to be relevant to much higher atmospheric carbon dioxide (pCO2) concentrations and/or proto-Tibetan Plateau (proto-TP) uplift. In order to explore and compare their roles on the East Asian climate evolution, we conducted simulations of the mid-Cretaceous climate system with different atmospheric pCO2 levels and varying topographies. The results show that both factors had significant influences on the East Asian climate. As the increase in atmospheric pCO2 levels from ∼560–1120 ppmv to ∼1120–2240 ppmv, the precipitation increases considerably over mid-latitude East Asia, but only small changes in the subtropical portion of East Asia occur. Simultaneously, the effects of the proto-TP uplift are opposite to those of global warming trend during that period. Generally, it leads to a precipitation decrease over subtropical East Asia, but rather minor changes over mid-latitude East Asia. These changes are qualitatively consistent with the deduction based on the geological records, but the magnitudes of the modeled precipitation changes are relatively smaller. Therefore, we can conclude that the subtropical East Asian drying during the mid-Cretaceous can be partly explained by the proto-TP uplift, while the mid-latitude East Asian wetting was partly due to global warming. However, additional factor(s) also played a significant role in the East Asian climate evolution during the mid-Cretaceous.

Late Oligocene atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations reconstructed from fossil leaves using stomatal index

Ancient atmospheric CO2 can be reconstructed using various climate proxies; stomata from fossil leaves are one of the climate proxies that provide critical information about past climatic conditions of the Earth. Exceptionally well–preserved fossil leaves found in overbank deposits in Chilga of Northwest Ethiopia were used to estimate late Oligocene atmospheric CO2 values using stomatal index. The age of the fossils, 206Pb/238U: 27.23 ± 0.03 Ma, was determined from zircons in an ash deposit comprising the matrix deposited contemporaneously with the fossil leaves. Stomatal indices were calculated from both the fossil leaves and nearest living relatives of the fossils. Corresponding atmospheric CO2 values for the nearest living relatives of the fossils were assigned from historical records from the Mauna Loa Observatory. This produces a calibrating curve that shows variation of atmospheric CO2 over time, and late Oligocene atmospheric CO2 values were quantified from the calibrating curve. The quantified late Oligocene atmospheric CO2 values are about 343 ± 11 ppm which show a 12 % decrease when they are quantified using a leaf gas exchange method. This is consistent with the idea that stomatal–index method underestimates CO2 values compared to the leaf gas exchange method. The late Oligocene was colder than both its preceding Eocene and its following Miocene epochs, and the results are incongruent with the cold Oligocene period. These results for this particular geologic time provide opportunity to examine how plants responded to climate changes in the past and have important implications for the study of current and future climate changes.

A call to action: The need for evaluation of carbon storage by lacustrine large woody debris

Abstract Global climate change and the push to develop Natural Climate Solutions have increased urgency around the need to quantify, capture, and store carbon to reduce atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide—but we may be overlooking a potentially important, long‐term carbon sink. Carbon stored in large woody debris (LWD) in lakes is largely missing from local and global carbon budgets. Waterlogged LWD may remain relatively intact in cold, low‐oxygen hypolimnetic regions for decades to centuries, while LWD buried in lake‐bottom sediments may store carbon for millennia. We postulate that lacustrine LWD may be an important component of local and global carbon budgets, and modern land‐use effects (deforestation, agriculture, stream flow changes) may be reducing inputs of LWD into long‐term lacustrine carbon pools. Quantifying lacustrine LWD, particularly in large lakes, is logistically challenging, resulting in a data gap in carbon budgets. Here, we propose that new aerial and underwater technologies be employed to map and quantify littoral LWD and deposits of sunken and buried LWD to estimate carbon storage and the role of lacustrine LWD in regional and global carbon cycling.

Modeling and forecasting atmospheric Carbon Dioxide concentrations at Bengaluru city in India

Modeling and forecasting atmospheric Carbon Dioxide concentrations at Bengaluru city in India

Herbarium specimens reveal that mycorrhizal type does not mediate declining temperate tree nitrogen status over a century of environmental change.

Rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations (CO2) and atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition have contrasting effects on ectomycorrhizal (EM) and arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) symbioses, potentially mediating forest responses to environmental change. In this study, we evaluated the cumulative effects of historical environmental change on N concentrations and δ15N values in AM plants, EM plants, EM fungi, and saprotrophic fungi using herbarium specimens collected in Minnesota, USA from 1871 to 2016. To better understand mycorrhizal mediation of foliar δ15N, we also analyzed a subset of previously published foliar δ15N values from across the United States to parse the effects of N deposition and CO2 rise. Over the last century in Minnesota, N concentrations declined among all groups except saprotrophic fungi. δ15N also declined among all groups of plants and fungi; however, foliar δ15N declined less in EM plants than in AM plants. In the analysis of previously published foliar δ15N values, this slope difference between EM and AM plants was better explained by nitrogen deposition than by CO2 rise. Mycorrhizal type did not explain trajectories of plant N concentrations. Instead, plants and EM fungi exhibited similar declines in N concentrations, consistent with declining forest N status despite moderate levels of N deposition.

Elevated atmospheric CO2 promotes the contribution of autotrophic nitrification to N2O emissions in a typical summer maize field

Elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration generally stimulates nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from upland soils, leading to a promoted feedback on climate change. However, the underlying mechanisms on how elevated CO2 (eCO2) stimulates N2O emissions from nitrogen (N)-fertilized upland soils remain poorly known. Here, we investigated the effects of eCO2 on soil N2O production pathways and associated gross N transformation rates, as well as on nitrifying and denitrifying microbes. Based on a 13 years of free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE) platform, we found that N2O emissions were significantly increased by 46.7% under eCO2 in a typical summer-maize field. The 15N tracing experiment showed that autotrophic nitrification rate was significantly increased by 11.6% under eCO2, coincided with the significantly higher abundance and shift composition of ammonia-oxidizing bacteria (AOB) under eCO2. Also, eCO2 enhanced gross ammonium (NH4+) immobilization rate but reduced gross nitrate (NO3−) immobilization rate. Autotrophic nitrification accounted for approximately 78% of N2O emissions, followed by heterotrophic nitrification (about 19%) and denitrification (about 3%). It was found that eCO2 increased carbon (C) deposition in soil, which could affect the availability of soil labile organic C and N and alter the composition and activity of nitrifiers. These changes promoted the N2O production derived from autotrophic nitrification, resulting in higher N2O emissions under eCO2. We could deduce that nitrifier denitrification contributed to the increased N2O emissions greatly under eCO2, derived by strongly stimulated ammonia oxidation and microbial respiration (i.e. higher soil CO2 emissions) caused suboxic conditions (i.e. lower soil oxygen (O2) concentration), along with higher abundance ratios of (nirK+nirS)/nosZ. Our results suggest that controlling autotrophic nitrification appropriately is crucial for mitigating N2O emissions from upland soils under rising atmospheric CO2 concentration.

Elevated carbon dioxide concentrations increase the risk of Cd exposure in rice.

Since the Industrial Revolution, crops have been exposed to various changes in the environment, including elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration and cadmium (Cd) pollution in soil. However, information about how combined changes affect crop is limited. Here, we have investigated the changes of japonica and indica rice subspecies seedlings under elevated CO2 level (1200 ppm) and Cd exposure (5 μM Cd) conditions compared with ambient CO2 level (400 ppm) and without Cd exposure in CO2 growth chambers with hydroponic experiment. The results showed that elevated CO2 levels significantly promoted seedling growth and rescued the growth inhibition under Cd stress. However, the elevated CO2 levels led to a significant increase in the shoot Cd accumulation of the two rice subspecies. Especially, the increase of shoot Cd accumulation in indica rice was more than 50% compared with control. Further investigation revealed that the decreases in the photosynthetic pigments and photosynthetic rates caused by Cd were attenuated by the elevated CO2 levels. In addition, elevated CO2 levels increased the non-enzymatic antioxidants and significantly enhanced the ascorbate peroxidase (APX) and glutathione reductase (GR) activities, alleviating the lipid peroxidation and reactive oxygen species (ROS) accumulation induced by Cd. Overall, the research revealed how rice responded to the elevated CO2 levels and Cd exposure, which can help modify agricultural practices to ensure food security and food safety in a future high-CO2 world.

Sensitivity of Neoproterozoic snowball-Earth inceptions to continental configuration, orbital geometry, and volcanism

Abstract. The Cryogenian period (720–635 million years ago) in the Neoproterozoic era featured two phases of global or near-global ice cover termed “snowball Earth”. Climate models of all kinds indicate that the inception of these phases must have occurred in the course of a self-amplifying ice–albedo feedback that forced the climate from a partially ice-covered to a snowball state within a few years or decades. The maximum concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) allowing such a drastic shift depends on the choice of model, the boundary conditions prescribed in the model, and the amount of climatic variability. Many previous studies reported values or ranges for this CO2 threshold but typically tested only a very few different boundary conditions or excluded variability due to volcanism. Here we present a comprehensive sensitivity study determining the CO2 thresholds in different scenarios for the Cryogenian continental configuration, orbital geometry, and short-term volcanic cooling effects in a consistent model framework using the climate model of intermediate complexity CLIMBER-3α. The continental configurations comprise two palaeogeographic reconstructions for each of both snowball-Earth onsets as well as two idealised configurations with either uniformly dispersed continents or a single polar supercontinent. Orbital geometries are sampled as multiple different combinations of the parameters obliquity, eccentricity, and argument of perihelion. For volcanic eruptions, we differentiate between single globally homogeneous perturbations, single zonally resolved perturbations, and random sequences of globally homogeneous perturbations with realistic statistics. The CO2 threshold lies between 10 and 250 ppm for all simulations. While the thresholds for the idealised continental configurations differ by a factor of up to 19, the CO2 thresholds for the continental reconstructions differ by only 6 %–44 % relative to the lower thresholds. Changes in orbital geometry account for variations in the CO2 threshold of up to 30 % relative to the lowest threshold. The effects of volcanic perturbations largely depend on the orbital geometry and the corresponding structure of coexisting stable states. A very large peak reduction in net solar radiation of 20 or 30 W m−2 can shift the CO2 threshold by the same order of magnitude as or less than the orbital geometry. Exceptionally large eruptions of up to −40 W m−2 shift the threshold by up to 40 % for one orbital configuration. Eruptions near the Equator tend to, but do not always, cause larger shifts than eruptions at high latitudes. The effects of realistic eruption sequences are mostly determined by their largest events. In the presence of particularly intense small-magnitude volcanism, this effect can go beyond the ranges expected from single eruptions.