This paper outlines a method for distributing to individual policyholders the average New York statewide premium savings of 39 percent which could result from adoption of the Protection Plan. It shows the range of saving is very extensive; dollar savings for a low income insured may be double the average, while savings may be very small for some high income policyholders. Also, as the amount of increased limits coverage is added, the relative dollar amount saved increases; for $25,000/ $50,000 limits with $5,000 medical payments coverage, savings may range up to 67 percent from present costs. Savings will be largest for low income insureds in communities with low rates and will increase as available benefits from collateral sources increase. Almost everybody could receive some saving in insurance premium cost under a Protection Plan. The total possible reductions are substantial to the point of being shocking . Previous studies 1 have estimated the average statewide effect on automobile insurance premium costs if the ProFrank Harwayne, F.C.A.S. has been Chief Actuary for the New York Insurance Department since 1952. He was a founding director of the American Academy of Actuaries and has been consulting actuary to federal, state and Canadian governments as well as Harvard University. Mr. Harwayne has taught mathematics and insurance at C.C.N.Y., Pace College and the College of Insurance. This article was submitted for publication in July, 1968. It was prepared for the Study of Automobile Claims Systems of Harvard Law School. 1 Harwayne, Insurance Costs of Automobile Protection Plan in Relation to Automobile Bodily Injury Liability Costs, LIII Proceedings of the Casualty Actuarial Society, 122 (1966). Concerning this same study, which related to New York state, see also Keeton & O'Connell, Protection and the Costs of Traffic Accidents, 38 N.Y.S.B.J. 255 (1966). For a Michigan study, see Harwayne, Insurance Costs of Protection Plan in Michigan, 1967 U. Ill. L. F. 479; also printed in Crisis in Car Insurance 119 (R. Keeton, J. O'Connell & J. McCord, eds., 1968). For a further New York state study, see The Relative Cost of Protection Insurance in New York State-An Objective Determination, (copyright 1968, Frank Harwayne). tection Plan2 were adopted. This study 2 The Protection Automobile Insurance Plan is set forth most fully, along with an attempt to document its pressing need and a draft statute, in R. Keeton & J. O'Connell, Protection for the Traffic Victim: A Blueprint for Reforming Automobile Insurance (1965) [hereinafter cited as Protection]. For a slightly revised and updated version of Chapter 6 of this book, see Keeton & O'Connell, Basic Protection Automobile Insurance, 1967 U. Ill. L. F. 400, 408-39; also printed in Crisis in Car Insurance 40, 48-79. See also R. Keeton & J. O'Connell, After Cars Crash-The Need for Legal and Insurance Reform (1967), a version written for the general reader. The Protection plan has two principal elements: (1) a new form of compulsory automobile insurance (called Protection coverage) will pay all those injured in traffic accidents without regard to anyone's fault or lack of it. Protection Insurance will compensate for losses up to limits of $10,000 per victim for any victim's out-of-pocket losses-which consist mainly of medical expenses and wage losses. Payment would not be made under B.P. for pain and suffering. Whenever a motorist carrying B.P. insurance is involved in an accident, and he, or a guest, or a pedestrian, is hurt, the motorist's own basic protection insurance company will compensate him or his guest or the pedestrian. (2) The second element is a law that partially exempts from liability for negaligent driving all
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