Comprehensive Safety Evaluation Research Articles

A Safety Evaluation Method for Converter Station Operation Based on Dynamic Fuzzy Theory

In order to accurately evaluate the safety risk level of converter station operations and reflect its changing trends, an evaluation method based on dynamic fuzzy theory is proposed. By constructing an initial Work Breakdown Structure-Risk breakdown structure (WBS-RBS) coupled matrix, identifying risk factors, and using the vague set screening method to screen out key risk factors, a comprehensive safety evaluation index system for converter station operations is established. The dynamic fuzzy values of all levels of evaluation indicators are calculated using dynamic fuzzy theory, intuitively reflecting the risk level and its changing trends of all levels of evaluation indicators. Taking the Suzhou ±800 kV converter station project as an example to verify this method, the results show that the safety risk level of this converter station operation is medium–low and tends to be low. This method can objectively reflect the ambiguity and randomness of risk evaluation, improve evaluation accuracy, and intuitively display the risk-changing trends, providing a reference for similar projects.

Carcinogenicity Assessment of Inotersen in Tg.rasH2 Mice and Sprague-Dawley Rats: Implications for 2'-MOE Antisense Oligonucleotides

Inotersen, a 2’-O-(2-methoxyethyl) modified antisense oligonucleotide (2’-MOE ASO), is approved for the treatment of hereditary transthyretin-mediated amyloidosis (hATTR). It underwent a comprehensive nonclinical safety evaluation, including safety pharmacology, repeat-dose toxicity, genotoxicity, reproductive and development toxicity, and carcinogenicity studies. Tumorigenic potential was assessed through dedicated carcinogenicity studies in transgenic rasH2 (Tg.rasH2) mice and Sprague Dawley (SD) rats. In the 26-week Tg.rasH2 mouse study, inotersen and a mouse-active surrogate (ISIS 401724) were administered as weekly subcutaneous (SC) doses up to 80 mg/kg and 30 mg/kg, respectively. Proinflammatory effects and ASO accumulation in the liver and kidney, both well-documented class effects, were observed; however, no treatment-related neoplasms were noted. Similarly, the mouse surrogate did not induce any treatment-related neoplasms. In the 2-year SD rat carcinogenicity study, inotersen was administered as weekly SC doses up to 6 mg/kg. The primary dose-limiting effect at doses ≥2 mg/kg/week was an increased incidence of chronic progressive nephropathy (CPN), which contributed to decreased survival at the 6 mg/kg/week dose level. Notably, no renal neoplasia was associated with the increased CPN. Increasing mononuclear cell infiltrates at the injection site were linked to an increased incidence of subcutaneous fibrosarcoma at doses ≥2 mg/kg/week. This inflammation-associated injection site tumor in rats administered inotersen has limited relevance for humans. Additionally, the long-term assessment of ASO effects in rats is somewhat limited due to the ASO exacerbation of CPN and its impact on survival. There was no evidence of genotoxicity in vitro or in vivo at limit doses. Collectively, these data support a conclusion that a single carcinogenicity assessment in the Tg.rasH2 mouse, along with data from chronic toxicology studies in the rodent and nonrodent, is sufficient to assess carcinogenic potential for this drug class.

Allergens Causing Allergic Contact Dermatitis in Cosmetic Products: A Systematic Review

Background: The increasing use of cosmetics worldwide has led to a rise in allergic reactions, particularly due to inadequate risk assessment. Identifying common allergens in cosmetic products causing dermatitis is crucial for effective prevention and management strategies. Objectives: This systematic review aims to determine the list of allergens that most commonly cause allergic contact dermatitis in cosmetic products and to find the patch test positivity rate for cosmetic products. Methods: This systematic review, following the PRISMA guidelines, investigated patch test results on cosmetic-induced contact dermatitis from January 2013 to September 2023 on PubMed, Cochrane, and Medline databases. Inclusion criteria comprised retrospective cohort and clinical trial studies reporting patch test positivity rates and positive allergens in cosmetics, with eligibility determined through independent screening, full-text evaluation, and data extraction. Exclusion criteria comprised abstract-only publications, non-English or Indonesian languages, review articles, and studies with incomplete text. Result: 13 studies were included out of 2,162 initially screened articles, involving 111,097 participants. The selected studies encompassed ten retrospective studies and three clinical trials conducted in various locations, including India, Brazil, North America, Korea, Sweden, and the Czech Republic. The patch test positivity rate ranged from 13% to 100%. The predominant allergens identified in cosmetics were nickel sulfate, fragrance mix I, cobalt chloride, para-phenylenediamine base, potassium dichromate, and balsam of Peru. Conclusion: This systematic review highlights the diversity in patch test positivity rates and identifies key allergens responsible for allergic contact dermatitis in cosmetic products, emphasizing the need for comprehensive evaluation and awareness of cosmetic safety.

Electric cooktop fire incidents in Finland

Cooking related fires contribute to one-fourth of residential building fires in Finland. However, their prevalence is often underestimated in statistics due to underreporting when individuals manage situations without fire service assistance. Despite their significance, cooktop fires remain inadequately studied, impeding our understanding of residential fire safety and the advancement of effective prevention measures. This study aims to provide a comprehensive evaluation of electric cooktop safety in Finland. It explores factors undermining safety, analyses materials contributing to hazards, assesses financial damages, and scrutinizes typical cooktop fire scenarios and prevention methods. Utilizing data from statistics (2016–2022), Safety Investigation Authority reports (1998–2022), media reviews (1.7.2020–30.6.2023), and insurance data (2017–2020), supplemented by two survey studies, this research identifies consistent causative factors across multiple data sources. Common factors include excessive items left on cooktops, unattended cooking, and unintentional activation of cooktops. Approximately three-quarters of cooktop fires go unreported to fire services, suggesting a significantly higher prevalence than recorded in statistics. Moreover, minimal use of stove safety devices exacerbates the issue. According to insurance company data, the costs caused by cooktop fires are significantly higher than those reported in official statistics. Implementing existing technology is crucial for reducing the frequency and consequences of these fires.

A Pharmacovigilance Analysis of Post-Marketing Safety of Tezepelumab

BackgroundTezepelumab has shown promising efficacy for adult patients with severe asthma since its approval. However, the post-marketing safety evaluation of tezepelumab is currently lacking. ObjectiveThe present study aims to investigate the post-marketing safety of tezepelumab based on the FDA Adverse Event Reporting System (FAERS) database. MethodsAdverse events (AEs) reports from January 2022 to December 2023 were extracted from the FAERS database. Disproportionality analysis by reporting odds ratio (ROR) and empirical Bayesian geometric mean (EBGM) was performed to detect potential AEs related to tezepelumab. Clinical characteristics and time to onset of AEs were also assessed. ResultsA total of 1,699 tezepelumab-related AE reports were identified during the study period. Thirty tezepelumab-related AE signals were detected by simultaneously applying the two algorithms. At the system organ class (SOC) level, the most common SOC related to tezepelumab was respiratory, thoracic and mediastinal disorders. At the preferred term (PT) level, common AEs including arthralgia and back pain were detected which were also documented in the label of tezepelumab and clinical trials. New unexpected AEs such as chest pain and myalgia were also identified. The median time to onset of tezepelumab-related AEs was 7.5 days, and the majority of AEs occurred within the first 1 month after tezepelumab initiation. ConclusionThe present study presents a comprehensive evaluation of the post-marketing safety of tezepelumab in the real-world setting. Our findings will provide valuable evidence for future clinical studies and management of safety issues of tezepelumab.

Comprehensive Safety Assessment of Lacticaseibacillus paracasei subsp. paracasei NTU 101 Through Integrated Genotypic and Phenotypic Analysis.

Probiotics, as defined by the World Health Organization, are live microorganisms that, when consumed in sufficient quantities, provide health benefits to the host. Although some countries have approved specific probiotic species for use in food, safety concerns may still arise with individual strains. Lacticaseibacillus paracasei subsp. paracasei NTU 101 (NTU 101), isolated from the gut of healthy infants, has demonstrated various probiotic effects and shown safety in a prior 28-day animal feeding study. To further verify its safety and mitigate potential risks, we performed a comprehensive genotypic and phenotypic safety evaluation in accordance with the European Food Safety Authority guidelines for safety assessment through whole genome sequencing and related literature. In this research, minimum inhibitory concentration testing identified NTU 101's resistance to chloramphenicol; however, subsequent gene analysis confirmed no associated risk of resistance. Assessments of safety, including biogenic amine content, hemolytic activity, mucin degradation, and D-lactic acid production, indicated a low level of risk. Additionally, a repeated-dose 90-day oral toxicity study in Sprague-Dawley rats revealed no toxicity at a dose of 2000 mg/kg body weight, further supporting the strain's safety for consumption. Based on these comprehensive analyses, NTU 101 is considered safe for regular consumption as a health supplement.

Development of a Comprehensive Safety Evaluation Mechanism for the Highway Bus Industry

A suitable mechanism for evaluating the safety of the highway bus industry is crucial for ensuring public transportation safety in a country. In this study, we have combined indices from the Compliance Safety Accountability (CSA) program of the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) in the US, the safety evaluation of renting buses in Japan, and some existing safety evaluation methods in Taiwan to develop a new safety evaluation mechanism for the highway bus industry. This paper introduces a two-stage decision making approach that includes the use of fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (Fuzzy AHP) and machine learning techniques such as decision trees, support vector machines, and random forests to develop this mechanism. The data used in this research were collected from the internet and directly from highway bus transportation companies. We calculated the safety performance of each company and assigned them different safety ranks. Compared with the causes of accidents in Taiwan, the results of this study showed that work hours, driver fitness, and administrative penalties are the three most important sub-attributes that affect the safety rank of the company.

Caprock Safety Evaluation Method in CCUS Based on Latin Hypercube Sampling: A case study of a block reservoir

Abstract CO2 geological sequestration is one of the essential means to achieve carbon neutrality goals. However, substantial CO2 sequestration in formations can lead to leakage issues, primarily through the caprock, involving caprock rupture, leakage along caprock fractures/faults, and capillary leakage. Therefore, establishing a method to assess the safety of the caprock during CO2 storage processes is crucial. Firstly, a numerical simulation model is constructed based on parameters from the target block to study the influences of reservoir property, development parameters, and caprock parameters on CO2 flooding, gas injection, and CO2 storage. Latin hypercube sampling is employed for scheme design and subsequent result analysis, applying Spearman’s method to analyze the controlling factors in each CO2 storage. Secondly, using continuous gas flooding as an example, the migration pattern of CO2 in the formation is investigated, and the influence of the formation pressure distribution on caprock safety is analyzed. Finally, considering the comprehensive impact of different parameters on caprock safety, a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of caprock safety in the target block is conducted. The study indicates that caprock permeability is the most critical factor affecting safety operation across all storage stages, with respective highest positive correlation coefficients of 0.413, 0.356, and 0.221 in different stages. The migration of CO2 in the formation is primarily influenced by the distribution of injection wells and gas migration channels. The established quantitative evaluation standard for caprock safety in the target block calculates a suitability degree of 3.43, suggesting a relatively secure caprock in the block suitable for achieving long-term stable CO2 storage. This research provides theoretical support for the safety analysis of caprock in different stages of CO2 flooding and storage, offering a scientific basis for the safety operation of CCUS schemes.

Impact of photoaging on the chemical and cytotoxic properties of nanoscale zeolitic imidazolate framework-8

This study investigated the influence of photoaging on a nanoscale metal-organic framework (MOF), truncated rhombic dodecahedron nano-zeolitic imidazolate framework-8 (nZIF-8), focusing on its oxidative stress, inflammation, and implications for pulmonary diseases. We observed significant photodegradation-induced transformations in nZIF-8, characterized by a reduction in particle size from 200.5 to 101.4 nm and notable structural disintegration after prolonged exposure to simulated solar radiation. This alteration resulted in a marked decrease in oxidative cytotoxicity in BEAS-2B cells, which was attributed to changes in surface properties and reduced reactive oxygen species (ROS) production. Gene expression analysis further revealed a decrease in cytotoxic and inflammatory responses, which potentially lowers the risk of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Aged nZIF-8 also showed diminished capacity to induce pro-inflammatory cytokines and influence COPD-related gene expression, reducing its potential to exacerbate COPD pathogenesis. Our findings highlight the critical need for comprehensive safety evaluations of these materials, while considering their long-term environmental and biological impacts. The diminished cytotoxicity and inflammatory potential of aged nZIF-8 highlighted its enhanced suitability for broader applications, indicating that photoaging may lead to safer and more sustainable material utilization.

Traffic Safety Evaluation of Downstream Intersections on Urban Expressways Based on Analytical Hierarchy Process–Matter-Element Method

This study aimed to explore the traffic safety evaluation model for downstream intersections of urban expressway exits and make up for the shortcomings in safety research on downstream intersections of urban expressway exits. We constructed a comprehensive traffic safety evaluation index system, established a traffic safety evaluation model, and divided precise safety evaluation levels using the AHP–Matter-Element analysis method, establishing a traffic safety evaluation index system consisting of eleven indicators. The effectiveness of this method was validated through an assessment of traffic safety at the intersection of Dongsheng Street and Free Road in Changchun City. A theoretical basis for improving traffic safety at downstream intersections of urban expressways and a reference for subsequent related research were provided.

Advances in Nanoparticles for Skin Protection — A Review

Nanoparticles (NPs) have revolutionized the field of skin protection and treatment by offering unique properties that enhance drug delivery, efficacy and safety. This review explores the advances in NP technology for various skin applications, including protection against ultraviolet (UV) radiation, treatment of skin diseases and enhancement of cosmetic products. NPs, such as zinc oxide and titanium dioxide, are extensively used in sunscreens for their effective UV-blocking capabilities without leaving a white residue. In medical applications, NPs improve active ingredients’ stability, penetration, and controlled release, making them ideal for treating skin conditions like psoriasis, eczema and skin cancer. The review also highlights the role of NPs in cosmetic formulations, where they enhance product texture, stability, and bioavailability of active ingredients, leading to better skin hydration and antiaging effects. Despite their benefits, the potential risks and regulatory challenges associated with NP use in skin products are discussed, emphasizing the need for comprehensive safety evaluations and adherence to regulatory standards. Future research directions include optimizing NP formulations for targeted delivery, reducing systemic absorption and improving patient compliance. This review underscores the transformative potential of NPs in dermatology and skincare, advocating for balanced development to maximize benefits while ensuring safety.

Therapeutic plasma exchange in autoimmune neurological disorders: A comprehensive evaluation of clinical outcomes, safety, and long-term disability using the modified Rankin scale.

Autoimmune neurological diseases (ANDs) involve the immune system attacking the nervous system, leading to various symptoms. Therapeutic plasma exchange (TPE) is used to remove pathogenic autoantibodies, aiming to improve clinical outcomes. This ambispective observational study included 99 patients with ANDs who underwent TPE from January 2018 to June 2022 at a tertiary care center in India. Clinical outcomes were measured using the modified Rankin Scale (mRS) scores at admission, post-TPE, at 3-months, 6-months, and 1-year follow-up post-discharge. Data were analyzed using Epi Info version 7.0. The median mRS score improved significantly from 5 (IQR 4-5) before TPE to 3 (IQR 2-4) post-TPE (p < 0.001). Complications occurred in 5.95% of procedures, with allergic reactions being the most common. The in-hospital mortality rate was 9%. TPE is a safe and effective treatment modality for autoimmune neurological diseases, especially in resource-constrained settings. It aids in both symptomatic relief and reducing long-term functional disability.

Exploring the Contribution of Traditional Medicinal Herbs in ManagingPolycystic Ovary Syndrome: A Comprehensive Review

: Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) is a significant gynecological disorder that commonly affects women of reproductive age. Disturbances in the production and metabolism of androgens and estrogens mark the condition. Due to the rising occurrence of PCOS and its related physical and psychological issues, along with the role of sex hormone fluctuations in its development, the use of marketed drugs is effective in treating PCOS but is accompanied by negative consequences. Consequently, a significant number of individuals with PCOS are opting for natural remedies due to the positive therapeutic effects associated with natural medications and the constraints of allopathic treatments. This review aims to assess the impact of different herbs on alterations in sex hormone levels in the bloodstream and ovarian tissue. By conducting a comprehensive literature search utilizing databases such as PubMed, Google Scholar, and Crossref, we have gathered and analyzed pertinent information regarding the efficacy of herbal remedies in combating PCOS. Based on the available evidence, herbs consisting of phytoestrogens can potentially reduce insulin resistance, hyperandrogenism, and ovarian weight while facilitating ovulation. This review explores the importance of herbal remedies in addressing PCOS, elucidates their mechanisms of action, and examines the therapeutic uses of specific herbal medications to treat PCOS. Human studies on medicinal herbs for managing Polycystic Ovary Syndrome (PCOS) need extended durations for a comprehensive evaluation of both safety and efficacy, emphasizing the necessity for more long-term research. It is anticipated that this comprehensive review will serve as a valuable resource for researchers studying the effect of herbs on PCOS, providing them with valuable insights and information.

Comprehensive Evaluation of Health, Safety, and Environmental Risks in Railway Construction Project Management

Comprehensive Evaluation of Health, Safety, and Environmental Risks in Railway Construction Project Management

Health outcomes of electronic cigarettes.

The usage of electronic cigarettes (e-cigarettes) sparked an outbreak of unidentified vaping-related lung disease in the US during late 2019. With e-cigarettes becoming more and more popular, smokers have more options other than conventional cigarettes. Under these circumstances, a comprehensive evaluation of the general safety of new tobacco and tobacco-related products, represented by e-cigarettes, to human health is necessary. In this review, we summarize the current research on potential negative impacts of e-cigarette exposure on human health. In particular, studies detailing the relationship between e-cigarettes and the digestive system are summarized, with mechanisms mainly including hepatic metabolic dysfunction, impaired gut barrier, and worsened outcomes of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). Although believed to be safer than traditional cigarettes, e-cigarettes exert adverse effects on systemic health and induce the development of multiple diseases containing asthma, cardiovascular disease, and IBD. Moreover, nicotine-containing e-cigarettes have a negative impact on the childhood development and increase the risk of arterial stiffness compared to the non-nicotine e-cigarettes. However, non-nicotine e-cigarette components have detrimental effects including promoting liver damage and metabolic disorders.

869 A Comprehensive Evaluation of Patient Satisfaction and Safety in Elective Hip and Knee Replacement Surgeries During the COVID-19 Pandemic

869 A Comprehensive Evaluation of Patient Satisfaction and Safety in Elective Hip and Knee Replacement Surgeries During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Bacteriological Quality of Borehole Water in Gusau Metropolis

Study’s Novelty/Excerpt This study is novel as it presents the first extensive bacteriological assessment of borehole water quality in Gusau metropolis, highlighting significant public health concerns. By analyzing multiple contamination indicators including total bacterial load, total coliform, fecal coliform, and Salmonella-Shigella counts, this research provides a detailed and comprehensive evaluation of water safety. Furthermore, the identification of specific bacterial contaminants such as Escherichia coli, Salmonella typhi, and Shigella spp., combined with the finding that contamination levels exceed WHO standards, underscores the urgent need for water treatment interventions to prevent waterborne diseases. Full Abstract Microbes are ubiquitous and are known to contaminate materials, including food and water. We examined the bacteriological quality of borehole water in Gusau metropolis to determine its potability. Triplicate samples were collected from fifteen (15) different boreholes and analyzed. The total bacterial load, total coliform, fecal coliform, and Salmonella-Shigella count were determined using the membrane filtration technique. The average counts were as follows: total bacteria ranged from 6×10^1 cfu/ml to 39×10^1 cfu/ml, total coliform count from 3×10^1 cfu/ml to 65×10^1 cfu/ml, fecal coliform count from 1×10^0 cfu/ml to 4×10^0 cfu/ml, and Salmonella-Shigella count from 0 cfu/ml to 4×10^0 cfu/ml. The isolated organisms were identified as Escherichia coli, Salmonella typhi, and Shigella spp. The predominant bacterial isolate was Escherichia coli. Our study indicated that the bacteriological quality exceeded the World Health Organization (WHO) allowable limits of 0 cfu/100ml for total bacterial load, total coliform count, fecal coliform count, and Salmonella-Shigella count due to the underground aquifers. Therefore, we recommend that borehole water sources be adequately treated before consumption to reduce the risk of waterborne diseases.

Edible insects: Understanding benzo(a)pyrene toxicokinetics in yellow mealworms for safe and sustainable consumption

The global interest in edible insects as sustainable protein sources raises concerns about the bioaccumulation of contaminants, including polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), to problematic levels. Understanding the accumulation dynamics of PAHs in edible insects is highly relevant due to the widespread sources and toxicological profiles; however, the bioaccumulative potential of PAHs in edible insects is unexplored. This study examined the uptake and elimination dynamics of benzo(a)pyrene (B(a)P), a representative and carcinogenic PAH, in yellow mealworm larvae (YMW, Tenebrio molitor). Larvae were exposed to feeding substrate with varying B(a)P concentrations (0.03, 0.3, and 3 mg kg−1), and uptake (21 days in B(a)P-contaminated substrate) and elimination (21 days in B(a)P-free substrate) kinetics were subsequently assessed. The results showed that YMW can eliminate B(a)P, revealing dose-dependent B(a)P bioaccumulation in these insects. Larvae fed on a substrate with 0.03 mg kg−1 accumulated B(a)P over 21 days, presenting values of 0.049 (Standard deviation - 0.011) mg kg−1 and a kinetic-based (BAFkinetic) of 1.93 g substrate g organism−1, exceeding the EU regulatory limits for food. However, with a B(a)P half-life (DT50) of 4.19 days in the larvae, an EU legislation safety criterion was met after a 13-day depuration period in clean substrate. Larvae exposed to substrates with 0.3 and 3 mg kg−1 showed B(a)P accumulation, with BAFkinetic values of 3.27 and 2.09 g substrate g organism−1, respectively, not meeting the current legal standards for food consumption at the end of the exposure to B(a)P. Although the B(a)P half-life values after 35 days were 4.30 and 10.22 days (DT50s), the larvae retained B(a)P levels exceeding permitted food safety limits. These findings highlight a significant oversight in regulating PAHs in animal feed and the need for comprehensive safety evaluations of PAH hazards in edible insects for improved PAH feeding guidelines.

An iron-containing nanomedicine for inducing deep tumor penetration and synergistic ferroptosis in enhanced pancreatic cancer therapy

Pancreatic cancer is an aggressive and challenging malignancy with limited treatment options, largely attributed to the dense tumor stroma and intrinsic drug resistance. Here, we introduce a novel iron-containing nanoparticle formulation termed PTFE, loaded with the ferroptosis inducer Erastin, to overcome these obstacles and enhance pancreatic cancer therapy. The PTFE nanoparticles were prepared through a one-step assembly process, consisting of an Erastin-loaded PLGA core stabilized by a MOF shell formed by coordination between Fe3+ and tannic acid. PTFE demonstrated a unique capability to repolarize tumor-associated macrophages (TAMs) into the M1 phenotype, leading to the regulation of dense tumor stroma by modulating the activation of tumor-associated fibroblasts (TAFs) and reducing collagen deposition. This resulted in enhanced nanoparticle accumulation and deep penetration, as confirmed by in vitro multicellular tumor spheroids and in vivo mesenchymal-rich subcutaneous pancreatic tumor models. Moreover, PTFE effectively combated tumor resistance by synergistically employing the Fe3+-induced Fenton reaction and Erastin-induced ferroptosis, thereby disrupting the redox balance. As a result, significant tumor growth inhibition was achieved in mice-bearing tumor model. Comprehensive safety evaluations demonstrated PTFE's favorable biocompatibility, highlighting its potential as a promising therapeutic platform to effectively address the formidable challenges in pancreatic cancer treatment.

Safety Evaluation and Influential Factor Analysis of Urban Expressway Diversion Areas Based on Non-Stationary Conflict Extremes

To evaluate the safety conditions of expressway exit areas with different exit forms, a safety analysis method based on the conflict extreme model is proposed. Based on video data from four typical urban expressway diversion areas, longitudinal conflicts and lateral conflicts were identified using time to collision and cross time to collision methods, respectively, and traffic parameters such as traffic flow were extracted. A Bayesian hierarchical conflict extreme model for joint conflict types was constructed by integrating the peak over threshold and Bayesian hierarchical approach. The threshold for conflicts was determined using the mean residual life plot and the threshold stability plot. Subsequently, a logarithmic link function for the scale parameter was established by combining different covariates. Then, the model parameters were estimated using the Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation method. Finally, based on the fitted distribution, a comprehensive safety evaluation and influential factor analysis were conducted for each diversion area. The results show that an increase in traffic flow and the ratio of large vehicles leads to a higher probability of traffic accidents. However, an increase in the average speed reduces the probability of traffic accidents. The construction form of the diversion area and the number of off-ramp lanes do not demonstrate an explicit relationship with the probability of traffic accidents. The research conclusion indicates that the Bayesian hierarchical extreme model can effectively utilize short-term observed conflicts for long-term crash estimation, and it has the potential to be applied in the field of safety evaluation.