Interest Rate Component Research Articles

The Effect of Interest and Inflation Rates on Stock Returns: Quantile Regression Analysis for Türkiye

According to financial theory, there is an inverse relationship between interest rate and stock returns and prices. In the framework of the Liquidity Preference Theory, the rise in interest rates causes the money to move towards higher interest rates, so demand for stock market decreases and returns fall. The behaviour of stock prices on interest rates and inflation has been investigated by various time series analysis methods. However, in this study, the subject is handled in a different approach by using the Quantile Regression (QR) method. In the study, nominal interest rate is decomposed into real interest rate and inflation components and effects on stock prices are examined for the period January 2013 - July 2023 separately for services, financial, industrial and technology sector indices. When it comes to the impact of nominal and real interest rates on returns in QR estimates, it is seen that the service and industrial sectors differ in terms of both tail and sign. The similarities between Least Squares estimates and QR estimates are striking. However, the effect of volatility in variables on the differentiation in relationships is also an issue that should be emphasized.

A fundamental approach to corporate bond options

It is well known that interest rates and credit spreads are negatively correlated. Any successful model for pricing callable corporate bonds has to take this correlation into account. A new approach for the analysis of corporate bond options is developed by using two correlated geometric Brownian motion (GBM) processes for the spread and interest rate components of corporate bond yields. Analysis of the results and comparison with market prices suggest that the traditional methods of calculating the option premium overestimate the value of the call option. Our analysis can also explain why risk neutral credit spreads are significantly wider than implied by default probability and in fact justify higher spreads.

The ruin probability of a discrete risk model with unilateral linear dependent claims

<abstract><p>This article focuses on analyzing the finite-time ruin probability within a specific class of discrete risk models. These models incorporate dependent claims, an interest rate component, and stationary noise terms exhibiting semi-heavy-tailed behavior. In this framework, the claim amount follows a unilateral linear dependent process with independent and identically distributed noise terms, while the discount factor is determined by both the interest rate and time. The finite-time ruin probability has been derived under insurance risk conditions resembling the gamma distribution.</p></abstract>

Evaluation of influence of corruption, lending interest rate and other components on ease of doing business: A policy-making and legal implications

The research paper experimentally examines the influence of corruption control (CC), lending interest rate (LIR), regulatory quality (RQ), government effectiveness (GE), and domestic credit to the private sector (DCPS) on the ease of doing business (EDB). To reach the expected objective, the investigation employs balanced data for all six countries of the Western Balkans, covering the period 2014–2020, employing regression analysis with fixed effects. The approach and parameter selection are guided by the insights from Nageri and Gunu (2020) as well as Belloumi and Alshehry (2021). The discoveries of the research provide evidence that CC, LIR, and RQ have a statistically significant negative influence, versus DCPS has resulted in a significant positive influence on the EDB. The originality and creativity of this investigation lay in the fact that it is a combination of economic and governing variables that are immediately reflected in the favorable environment for doing business. The discoveries of the investigation will be beneficial to the expansion of existing literature in the academic sphere and serve as avenues for proactive discussions among business managers, and students, as well as the policy-making structure concerning the possible implications that can be drawn based on the results of the research.

Inflation, interest rates and the predictability of stock returns

This paper focuses on the predictive role of inflation and interest rates in forecasting stock returns. We report economically significant in-sample evidence that stock returns are predictable using cyclical components of inflation and interest rates. The out-of-sample analysis results show that these cyclical components have reasonable out-of-sample predictability for the equity risk premium when the comparison is made against a historical average benchmark. We believe this is due to the fact that both inflation and interest rates contain stochastic trends. Accounting for changes in trend inflation (and equilibrium real interest rate) is essential for forecasting stock returns.

Computing corporate bond returns: a word (or two) of caution

AbstractWe offer several suggestions for researchers using corporate bond return data. First, despite clear instructions from older papers (e.g., Bessembinder et al., The Review of Financial Studies 22:4219–4258, 2009) about ways to compute credit excess returns, a lot of recent research simply subtracts a Treasury Bill return. We show that this imprecision is likely to contaminate inferences, as the rate component of returns is negatively correlated to the spread component. This is a problem for all research looking at corporate bond returns, especially time series analysis and safer corporate bonds (e.g., investment grade). We provide a simple approach using Wharton Research Data Services (WRDS) data to remove the interest rate component of corporate bond returns. Second, we note significant differences in the coverage of corporate bonds across the Trade Reporting and Compliance Engine (TRACE) platform and typical corporate bond indices. We provide some simple rules for researchers who are using TRACE to select a subset of bonds closest to those contained inside corporate bond indices used by institutional investors. Third, we note differential quality in the prices and hence returns between TRACE and typical corporate bond indices. Corporate bond returns provided by corporate bond indices (i) correctly estimate credit excess returns, (ii) are synchronous for the entire set of bonds, allowing for consistent cross-sectional comparability, and (iii) suffer less from stale pricing issues. Due to these coverage and data quality issues, researchers should try, where possible, to source return data from multiple sources to ensure the robustness of their results.

Procedure for Separate Accounting of Interest and Exchange Rate Components of the Fair Value of a Set of Financial Instruments: IFRS

The research considers the development of the principles of separate accounting and analysis of the interest and exchange rate components of the fair value of a set of financial instruments under the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS). The aim of the work is to consider a practical situation with a deferred payment for financial instruments received under an agreement, while the participants of the scheme hedged economic transactions using derivative financial instruments. Here, from the standpoint of accounting and analytics, the mechanism of separation of interest and exchange rate elements, which directly affect the fair value of the forward contract, is of significant importance. It also related this to the requirements of IFRS standards. The research has developed a procedure for separate accounting of these financial components. In particular, it has worked out an algorithm for accounting and mathematical evaluation of exchange rate differences when hedging cash flows of debt instruments with currency forwards. The methodological base of the research includes dynamic situational analysis, system analysis, models of financial mathematics, analytical procedures of the modern theory of financial accounting. The theoretical and practical significance of the research lies in the development of scientific and applied tools based on accounting and process models and evaluation algorithms. The accounting can use the developed procedures, analytical and audit services of banks and corporations in preparing and analyzing financial statements under IFRS.

Central bank information and private‐sector expectations

AbstractRecent advances in the literature allow disentangling the pure information component from the interest rate component of US monetary policy surprises. This article quantifies the information revealed around FOMC announcements using forecast revisions from Blue Chip Economic Indicators. Following a typical central bank information shock, survey participants revise their now‐ and short‐term forecasts of both real GDP growth and the GDP deflator upwards, consistent with a shift of the aggregate demand curve along the aggregate supply curve. While now‐ and forecast revisions in real GDP growth are driven by negative central bank information shocks, those in the GDP deflator respond broadly symmetrically to good and bad news.

A flexible lattice framework for valuing options on assets paying discrete dividends and variable annuities embedding GMWB riders

In a market where a stochastic interest rate component characterizes asset dynamics, we propose a flexible lattice framework to evaluate and manage options on equities paying discrete dividends and variable annuities presenting some provisions, like a guaranteed minimum withdrawal benefit. The framework is flexible in that it allows to combine financial and demographic risk, to embed in the contract early exercise features, and to choose the dynamics for interest rates and traded assets. A computational problem arises when each dividend (when valuing an option) or withdrawal (when valuing a variable annuity) is paid, because the lattice lacks its recombining structure. The proposed model overcomes this problem associating with each node of the lattice a set of representative values of the underlying asset (when valuing an option) or of the personal subaccount (when valuing a variable annuity) chosen among all the possible ones realized at that node. Extensive numerical experiments confirm the model accuracy and efficiency.

An Application of Index Number Theory to Interest Rates: Evidence from Selected Post-Soviet Countries

Abstract In this paper, we use index number theory to decompose changes in total interest rate due to changes in the interest rate component and the weight component. We discuss the optimal calculation of a binary index using axiomatic index number theory. Based on this theory we compare alternative indexes and as a result, we choose the Marshall-Edgeworth index because most axioms are satisfied by this index. Comparing the results of binary periods decomposition, we conclude that the differences are not significant when we apply different indices. For multiple period comparison, we suggest using the chain index because it allows accounting for the weights evolution during the whole period. In addition, we derive a formula that could be useful for explaining the differences between chain and direct indexes when we produce multiple period comparison.

(Un)expected monetary policy shocks and term premia

SummaryThe term structure of interest rates is crucial for the transmission of monetary policy to financial markets and the macroeconomy. Disentangling the impact of monetary policy on the components of interest rates, expected short rates, and term premia is essential to understanding this channel. To accomplish this, we provide a quantitative structural model with endogenous, time‐varying term premia that are consistent with empirical findings. News about future policy, in contrast to unexpected policy shocks, has quantitatively significant effects on term premia along the entire term structure. This provides a plausible explanation for partly contradictory estimates in the empirical literature.

Japan’s impactful augmentation of quantitative easing sovereign-bond purchases

This article examines how and to what extent large-scale government bond purchases in the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy affected two components of long-term interest rates over the period 2009–2015. The article divides market yields on popular 5 and 10-year government bonds into future policy-rate expectations with uncertainty and a specific type of term premia required by investors for the bonds’ demand/supply imbalances, by using overnight index swap rates as a proxy for the former. The Bank of Japan augmented the purchases substantially by starting Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing (QQME) in 2013. The QQME became impactful in the sense that it encouraged investors to improve the first component whilst reducing the second component. These appeared mainly as persisting announcement-effects – upward level shifts of the expectations and downward ones of the term premia. The reduction of term premia was much greater for the 10-year maturity than for 5-year one and strengthened after an additional expansion of the QQME in 2014. The QQME is estimated to have enhanced 5-year sovereign bond yields by 11.9 basis points (bps) a month on average whilst reducing 10-year ones by 8.3 bps. The impact on the 5-year yields turned to be negative after the QQME expansion.

Determinants of South American bank credit: An approach to panel data

The objective of this paper is to analyze the determinants of the domestic banking credit in the South American countries, based on panel data, for the period 2000 to 2016. The results indicate that domestic deposits and liabilities to non-residents contribute positively to the growth of private credit, with domestic funding having a more representative impact than foreign funding. Economic growth leads to a greater demand for credit and an increase in credit, while higher domestic and US interest rates reduce credit growth. Rising inflation also negatively affect private sector credit. In addition, as regards credit composition, domestic deposits and economic growth are the main components of credit expansion, and, in turn, inflation and domestic interest rates contribute negatively.

Comment on “The long-run information effect of Central Bank communication” by Stephen Hansen, Michael McMahon, and Matthew Tong

Hansen et al. (2019) highlight an uncertainty effect on long-term interest rates, particularly term premia, of central bank communication using novel measures constructed directly from the text of the Bank of England’s Inflation Report. This comment takes a more in-depth look at these narrative measures, showing that the measures identified as being important for explaining the short-rate expectations and term premia components of interest rates are equally important for explaining overall interest rate movements at all maturities. Furthermore, the signals identified as being important for long-term rates and term premia are indeed correlated with perceptions of uncertainty, but are also related to changes in longer-horizon economic forecasts. This suggests a more balanced view of central bank communications transmitting to long-term interest rates through both short-rate expectations and uncertainty.

Time series of functional data with application to yield curves

AbstractWe develop time series analysis of functional data observed discretely, treating the whole curve as a random realization from a distribution on functions that evolve over time. The method consists of principal components analysis of functional data and subsequently modeling the principal component scores as vector autoregressive moving averag (VARMA) process. We justify the method by showing that an underlying ARMAH structure of the curves leads to a VARMA structure on the principal component scores. We derive asymptotic properties of the estimators, fits, and forecast. For term structures of interest rates, these provide a unified framework for studying the time and maturity components of interest rates under one setup with few parametric assumptions. We apply the method to the yield curves of USA and India. We compare our forecasts to the parametric model that is based on Nelson‐Siegel curves. In another application, we study the dependence of long term interest rate on the short term interest rate using functional regression.

Exploring the Gibson law in CEE countries using a time series approach

This study investigates the presence of the Gibson paradox in the transitional countries. The Gibson law has been a source of widespread academic discussion on the dynamics of long-term interest rates and the price level. Today the Gibson law re-emerges on the economic science stage since historically low-interest rates and deflationary pressures are present worldwide. This paper studies the correlation between cyclical components of interest rates and prices for CEE (Central and Eastern Europe) states over the 2000-2014 period. Empirical results show only a weak correlation between the cyclical components implying no long run (cointegrating) relationship between bond yields and prices. Evidence presented in the study shows Gibson law is not valid for the CEE states, advancing the possibility that fixed exchange regimes, lack of the gold reserves, and monetary stabilization policies are the forces driving the law outside the CEE area. The results show that Gibson paradox is not present in CEE states but also point to the possible non-linear nature of the paradox. In order to investigate the non-linear nature of the paradox in CEE, because of constant changes and adaptation of the monetary policies in CEE states, future studies should use a long memory approach. The paper shows limited theoretical explanation for the non-existent Gibson law in CEE economies but still advances an explanation – lack of gold reserves, fixed exchange regimes and restrictive monetary policy. Policy makers should monitor the nature of the paradox in relation to the historically low levels of interest rates in order to avoid or at least alleviate future financial crisis.

Dynamism of Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Nigeria: Interest Rate and Market Capitalization Causality Evidence

The potency of monetary transmission channels anchors the process by which interest rate movements and other cardinal aggregates influence critical financial fundamentals in an economy. This study, thus, examines dynamism of the monetary transmission mechanism with focus on the causality of interest rate and market capitalization in the Nigerian economy. Time series data covering a period of 36 years (1981 - 2015) were extracted from publications of monetary authorities and related agencies, including annual reports of Deposit Money Banks (DMBs) in the country. Facilitated by E-Views software, the analytical proceedings generated the required statistical outcomes in terms of coefficient of correlation (r), coefficient of determination (R2), t-statistic, and F-statistic. Granger causality test was also conducted to clearly establish the direction of causality between the focal variables. Essentially, the null hypothesis is rejected as probability of the F-statistic is less than the specified 0.05 level of significance. The granger causality test statistics run from four interest rate components to the operational capital market fundamental (with F-statistics of 5.758, 5.540, 4.209,and5.656; as well as probability values of 0.008, 0.009, 0.002, and 0.009 respectively). In view of the analytical outcomes, it is recommended that interest rate components be efficiently synergized to boost investors’ confidence and further drive monetary policy dynamics towards greater financial system vitality and sustainability in Nigeria.

Impact of Monetary Policy on Economic Growth in Nigeria

The paper examined the impact of monetary policy on economic growth in Nigeria by developing a model that is able to investigate how monetary policy of the government has affected economic growth through the use of multi-variable regression analysis. We proxied the variables of monetary policy instruments to include: Money Supply (MS), Exchange Rate (ER), Interest Rate (IR), and Liquidity Ratio (LR). Economic growth was represented by Gross Domestic Product (income) at constant prices. Unit root test was conducted and all our estimating variables were stationary at first difference except the component of interest rate which shows that our model interpretation would not be spurious and a true representation of the relationships that exists between the explained and explanatory variables. Error Correction Model was introduced in our estimation in order to have a parsimonious model. From our result, two variables (money supply and exchange rate) had a positive but fairly insignificant impact on economic growth. Measures of interest rate and liquidity ratio on the other hand, had a negative but highly significant impact on economic growth which supports the assertion by Busari et al. (2002) that monetary policies are better suited when they are used in targeting inflation rather than in stimulating growth. In addition, Engle-Granger co-integration test was done and showed the existence of a long run relationship between monetary policy and economic growth in Nigeria. Finally, granger causality test was done on our variables and the results showed the existence of a uni-directional causality between money supply and economic growth, economic growth granger causing liquidity ratio and exchange rates while a bi-directional causality exists between interest and economic growth. We recommend that partial autonomy should be replaced with full autonomy for the central banks in Nigeria which is invariably subjected to government interference and its politics. Finally, monetary policies should be used to create a favorable investment climate by facilitating the emergency of market based interest rate and exchange rate regimes that attract both domestic and foreign investments.

Optimal Dividend and Issuance of Equity Policies in the Presence of Interest

We investigate the dividend and equity issuance problem in the presence of interest rate. The evolution of the financial reserves of an insurance company, where management payout dividends and issue new equity, is described by a stochastic differential equation. The work of Lokka and Zervos [1] is extended by including the interest rate component into the model in order to make the model more realistic. The aim is to maximise the expected discounted dividends pay-out until the time of bankruptcy. In order to investigate this problem, the stochastic control theory for diffusion processes will be used. In order to handle the problem, the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation (HJB) is derived and solved. The second order ordinary differential equation associated with the problem turns out to belong to the class of Kummer’s confluent hyper-geometric differential equations. This category of equations is not easy to solve. The equation is non-dimensionalised and change of variables is effected in two different stages. The results show that interest rate affected the rate at which the value function and threshold level change.

ENTERPRISE FINANCING BY MEANS OF CORPORATE BONDS TOOLKIT

Introduction. In contrast to the markets of developed countries, forming characteristic risk premium investment bonds in emerging markets, is that the greatest effect on the risk premium on bonds in countries such factor provides market liquidity in general and specific securities in particular. The second most significant factor influencing the risk premium is the risk of changing interest rates. The risk of default of issuers in such countries is also quite high, but the component of creditworthiness is less significant factor in the combination of systematic risks. Due to low sovereign ratings of Ukraine, the credit ratings of bonds of all domestic issuers have a speculative level. Owing to this fact, all of them can be classified as highly risky and, accordingly, highly profitable (HighYield Bonds). Purpose. The aim of the article is to reduce deficits in the scientific and methodological provision of the use of corporate bonds instruments on the basis of determining the determinants of the premium for the risk of investing in them. Method (methodology). To achieve the goal and solve the problems, the following methods have been used: method of analysis and synthesis, method of comparison and generalization; method of empirical research and factor analysis; method of system approach and strategy. Results. The research of the determinants of the risk premium is important, first of all, from the point of view of substantiating the technologies of reducing the cost of enterprises to capital. The key causes of underdevelopment of the domestic corporate bond market have been determined. We have identified factors that influence the spread of profitability and the value of bonds. They are the risk of default of the issuer and the potential of the enterprise development (credit component); base interest rate and long-term interest rates on the financial market (interest rate component); liquidity of the capital market (component of liquidity); the level of inflation and the development of economic conditions; information risks. It has been determined that in order to reduce the risk of investments in corporate bonds, it is necessary to implement at the regulatory level a set of measures to reduce overhead costs and increase the reliability of investments. The introduction of a safety covenant system can be defrined as one of such measures.