Component Of Inflation Research Articles

What Common Factors are Driving Inflation in CEE Countries?

In this paper, we analyse the sources of time variation in consumer inflation across ten Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries and five sectors (durables, semidurables, non-durables, food, and services) in the period 2001-2013. With a multi-level factor model we decompose product-level HICP inflation rates into the following components: CEE region wide, sector, country, country-sector, and idiosyncratic. The outcomes indicate that region-wide and country specific components of inflation are more persistent than sector and product-level components, which is in line with similar studies for core EU countries. Two region-wide factors explain about 17% of variance in monthly price changes, whereas the other common components explain below 10% each. The results are at odds with empirical evidence on the importance of sectoral price shocks in developed economies and the volatility-persistence puzzle. This difference may be related to the conclusion that the first region-wide factor is associated with common disinflationary processes that occurred in CEE economies in 2000s, whereas the second one reveals significant correlations with global factors, especially commodity prices and euro area price developments.

Are equities good inflation hedges? A frequency domain perspective

By using industry level data, we examine the relation between equity returns and inflation in a frequency dependent framework. Our analysis shows that a positive relation in fact exists between equity returns and high frequency inflation shocks for commodity and technology related industries. Since higher frequency shocks are independent from trend and are transitory in nature, our findings imply a positive relation between stock returns and the unexpected component of inflation. Furthermore, we show that the results are robust to firm-level data by using a sample from the oil industry. Hence, our study provides a new look at the impact of inflation on equities by showing the sensitivity of conclusions in prior work to frequency dependence in data.

Price-level uncertainty and instability in the United Kingdom

Was UK inflation more stable and/or less uncertain before 1914 or after 1945? We address these questions by estimating a statistical model with changing volatilities in transient and persistent components of inflation. Three conclusions emerge. First, since periods of high and low volatility occur in both eras, neither features uniformly greater stability or lower uncertainty. When comparing peaks with peaks and troughs with troughs, however, we find clear evidence that the price level was more stable before World War I. We also find some evidence for lower uncertainty at pre-1914 troughs, but its statistical significance is borderline.

HOW WELL DOES “CORE” INFLATION CAPTURE PERMANENT PRICE CHANGES?

Does excluding food and energy prices from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) produce a measure that better captures permanent price changes? To examine this question, we decompose CPI inflation and “core” inflation into their permanent and transitory components, using a correlated unobserved-components model. The stationarity of inflation may be time-varying, so we examine the performance of the core measure of inflation separately for periods in which inflation isI(1) andI(0). For a period in which inflation appears to beI(1), we find that core inflation and the permanent component of overall inflation are closely related, but there are some caveats. For a period in which inflation appears to beI(0), we decompose the core and overall price levels and find that the permanent component of the core CPI is much more volatile than the actual core series and that the core excludes volatile permanent shocks to the overall price level.

Inflation volatility: an Asian perspective

For the quarterly data of 10 Asian economies, ranging from the first quarter of 1991 to last quarter of 2012, we model inflation volatility as a time varying process through different symmetric and asymmetric GARCH specifications. We also propose to model inflation volatility on the basis of cyclic component of inflation obtained from an Hodrick Prescott (HP) filter instead of actual inflation when the latter does not fulfil the criterion of stationarity. Through news impact curves (NICs) we tried to highlight the behaviour of inflation volatility in response to lagged inflation shocks under different GARCH specifications. In our results the leverage parameter shows the expected sign and is significant for almost all countries suggesting strong asymmetry in inflation volatility. The hyperbolic sign integral shape of NICs based on Glosten-Jagannathan-Runkle GARCH (GJR-GARCH) highlights the importance of inflation stabilisation programmes particularly because of the subsequent evidence obtained in favour of bidirectional causality running between inflation and inflation volatility. There is also evidence in favour of the argument that a cyclic component of inflation obtained through an HP filter could be used as a suitable proxy of inflation for volatility estimation.

Cross-Sectional Evidence on the Relation between Monetary Policy, Macroeconomic Conditions and Low-Frequency Inflation Uncertainty

We examine how financial market volatility and the interaction between monetary policy and macroeconomic conditions affect inflation uncertainty in the long-term. Moreover, the direct and indirect influences of stock market volatility on Inflation and output growth are examined. The unobservable inflation uncertainty is quantified by means of the slowly evolving long-term variance component of Inflation in the framework of the Spline-GARCH model (Engle and Rangel, 2008). For a cross-section of 13 developed economies, we document that long-term inflation uncertainty is high if central bank governors are perceived as less inflation-averse, if the conduct of monetary policy is ad-hoc rather than rule-based and during times of heightened volatility in financial markets. Moreover, we find that financial market volatility has a direct effect on both the level of inflation and output growth and an indirect influence on these variables which is transmitted through its relation to low-frequency inflation uncertainty.

The inflation-hedging characteristics of Malaysian residential property

Purpose– This study aims to extend the current literature by examining the inflation-hedging effectiveness of Malaysian residential property in the short run and long run. Malaysia is an emerging market and has some unique characteristics. Therefore, a dedicated study in this market is critical.Design/methodology/approach– The analysis of this study involves two stages. The first stage is to estimate the inflation-hedging ability of Malaysian residential property in the short run. The Fama and Schwert model was employed. Thereafter, the long-run inflation-hedging effectiveness was assessed by using a dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) model.Findings– The Fama and Schwert tests reveal that Malaysian residential property does provide some satisfactory hedge against the expected inflation component over the short run. However, variations are evident among different types of residential property. The DOLS results provide strong evidence to support that housing is an effective hedge against the expected inflation in the long run, whereas no comparable evidence is found for the unexpected inflation component.Practical implications– The findings enable more informed and practical investment decision-making regarding the role of housing in inflation risk management.Originality/value– This paper is the first study to offer empirical evidence of the inflation-hedging attributes of Malaysian residential property. Moreover, the inflation-hedging effectiveness of different types of residential property is also compared for the first time.

INFLATION IN THE G7: MIND THE GAP(S)?

We investigate the importance of trend inflation and the real-activity gap in explaining inflation in G7 countries since 1960. Our analysis is based on a bivariate unobserved components model of inflation and unemployment in which inflation is decomposed into a stochastic trend and a transitory component. As in recent implementations of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve, it is the transitory component of inflation, or “inflation gap,” that is driven by the real-activity gap, which we measure as the deviation of unemployment from its natural rate. We find that both trend inflation and the inflation gap have been consistent and substantial determinants of inflation at business cycle horizons for all G7 countries since 1960. Also, the real-activity gap explains a large fraction of the variation in the inflation gap for each country. These results provide empirical support for the New Keynesian Phillips Curve augmented with trend inflation.

How Badly Flawed is Chinese Economic Data? The Opening Bid is $1 Trillion

Baseline Chinese economic data is unreliable. Taking published National Bureau of Statistics China data on the components of consumer price inflation, I attempt to reconcile the official data to third party data. Three problems are apparent in official NBSC data on inflation. First, the base data on housing price inflation is manipulated. According to the NBSC, urban private housing occupants enjoyed a total price increase of only 6% between 2000 and 2011. Second, while renters faced cumulative price increases in excess of 50% during the same period, the NBSC classifies most Chinese households has private housing occupants making them subject to the significantly lower inflation rate. Third, despite beginning in the year 2000 with nearly two-thirds of Chinese households in rural areas, the NSBC applies a straight 80/20 urban/rural private housing weighting throughout our time sample. This further skews the accuracy of the final data. To correct for these manipulative practices, I use third party and related NBSC data to better estimate the change in consumer prices in China between 2000 and 2011. I find that using conservative assumptions about price increases the annual CPI in China should be adjusted upwards by approximately 1%. This reduces real Chinese GDP by 8-12% or more than $1 trillion in PPP terms.

Towards a Measure of Core Inflation using Singular Spectrum Analysis

AbstractThis paper constructs a number of possible core measures of inflation using singular spectrum analysis (SSA). Annual changes in monthly inflation are decomposed into its trend, oscillatory and noise components in order to develop an understanding of the trend and cyclicality in South African headline inflation. Three cyclical components with differing amplitude and frequency are identified. The trend and cyclical components of inflation are found to be a good approximation of core inflation, the inertial part of inflation. These core measures are compared with other candidate core measures based on the properties of a good core inflation measure. Generally, the SSA measures outperform commonly used measures of core inflation based on both in‐ and out‐of‐sample performance.

How Well Does 'Core' Inflation Capture Permanent Price Changes?

Does excluding food and energy prices from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) produce a measure that captures permanent price changes? To examine this question we decompose CPI inflation and “core” inflation into their permanent and transitory components using a correlated unobserved components model. One of the key aspects of the correlated unobserved components model is that it allows shocks to the permanent component to potentially be more variable than shocks to the series itself, due to offsetting transitory shocks correlated with the permanent shocks. The stationarity of inflation may be time-varying, so we examine the performance of the core measure of inflation for periods during which it appears that inflation is I(1) and for periods during which it appears that inflation is I(0). For a period in which inflation appears to be I(1), we find that core inflation and the permanent component of overall inflation are closely related, although core inflation does have some drawbacks as a measure of permanent inflation. For a period in which inflation appears to be I(0), we decompose the core and overall price levels and find that the permanent component of core CPI is much more volatile than the actual core series and that core excludes volatile permanent shocks to the overall price level.

Market Risk Policy of the Banks in France

This paper studies the market risk policy and the current monetary and banking regime in France. The author has analyzed the role of inflation and other components of changing business cycle with respect to the government policies and market behaviour. The study allows us to evaluate how the different nature of the French monetary policies before 1999 as well as the convergence process towards the single currency have affected the role of inflation in the pricing of financial assets. The implementation of regulatory definitions in accordance with the Basel Accord (International Convergence of Capital Measurement and Capital Standard), are also discussed in the paper. The author has concluded his research by highlighting the current market sentiments of the credit risk policy of the banks in France.

How Well Does 'Core' Inflation Capture Permanent Price Changes?

Does excluding food and energy prices from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) produce a measure that captures permanent price changes? To examine this question we decompose CPI inflation and inflation into their permanent and transitory components using a correlated unobserved components model. One of the key aspects of the correlated unobserved components model is that it allows shocks to the permanent component to potentially be more variable than shocks to the series itself, due to offsetting transitory shocks correlated with the permanent shocks. The stationarity of inflation may be time-varying, so we examine the performance of the core measure of inflation for periods during which it appears that inflation is I(1) and for periods during which it appears that inflation is I(0). For a period in which inflation appears to be I(1), we find that core inflation and the permanent component of overall inflation are closely related, although core inflation does have some drawbacks as a measure of permanent inflation. For a period in which inflation appears to be I(0), we decompose the core and overall price levels and find that the permanent component of core CPI is much more volatile than the actual core series and that core excludes volatile permanent shocks to the overall price level.

The stylized facts of Greek inflation: New evidence on persistence

This paper contributes to the existing empirical literature of inflation persistence by providing results on the level of inflation persistence for the Greek economy using an inflation series on both the aggregated and the disaggregated level. The empirical findings reveal substantial homogeneity across sectors as well as across price indices. These results suggest a very moderate degree of inflation persistence for both aggregate and disaggregate price indices. The results point to the need to account for the presence of a structural break typically related to the ?Maastricht effect?; and entailed a structural increase in the persistence measure, though the average level of inflation declined. This could be a piece of evidence that although the monetary component of inflation in Greece was neutralized due to the implementation of the monetary policy by a central monetary authority, other idiosyncratic characteristics of the Greek inflation contribute to this persistent structure of the inflation series.

A New Model of Trend Inflation

This article introduces a new model of trend inflation. In contrast to many earlier approaches, which allow for trend inflation to evolve according to a random walk, ours is a bounded model which ensures that trend inflation is constrained to lie in an interval. The bounds of this interval can either be fixed or estimated from the data. Our model also allows for a time-varying degree of persistence in the transitory component of inflation. In an empirical exercise with CPI inflation, we find the model to work well, yielding more sensible measures of trend inflation and forecasting better than popular alternatives such as the unobserved components stochastic volatility model. This article has supplementary materials online.

Leverage, investment, and optimal monetary policy

We study optimal monetary policy in an economy where the debt overhang of firms leads to underinvestment and underproduction. The magnitude of this debt-induced distortion varies over the business cycle, rising significantly during recessions. When debt is contracted in nominal terms, this distortion gives rise to a balance sheet channel for monetary policy. In the presence of real and financial shocks, the monetary authority faces a trade-off between inflation and output gap stabilization. The optimal monetary policy rule prescribes that the anticipated component of inflation should be set equal to a target level, while the unanticipated component should rise in response to adverse shocks, smoothing the debt overhang distortion and the output gap.

Hong Kong Inflation Dynamics: Trend and Cycle Relationships with the U.S. And China

This paper analyzes trend and cycle movements of Hong Kong inflation. The empirical model is an unobserved components model that is consistent with the New Keynesian Phillips curve and is estimated using Hong Kong, U.S., and China inflation and output data. The model decomposes Hong Kong inflation into a stochastic trend and a stationary cycle component that is driven by domestic as well as U.S. and China output gaps. The output gaps are treated as latent variables, thus a byproduct of estimating the empirical model are measures of the output gaps for Hong Kong that are consistent with the New Keynesian Phillips Curve. Empirical results suggest minor evidence that Hong Kong and U.S. inflation rates are related in the long-run, as permanent price shocks from the U.S. have minimal effects on Hong Kong trend inflation movements. Over the short-run horizon, Hong Kong price movements are heavily driven by both the domestic output gap as well as external forces. The U.S. and China output gap has opposite effects on the cycle component of Hong Kong inflation, with the coefficients on the China output gap twice as large as those on the U.S. are.

Medical Care Price Indexes for Patients with Employer‐Provided Insurance: Nationally Representative Estimates from MarketScan Data

Commonly observed shifts in the utilization of medical care services to treat diseases may pose problems for official price indexes at the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) that do not account for service shifts. We examine how these shifts may lead to different price estimates than those observed in official price statistics at the BLS. We use a convenience sample of enrollees with employer-provided insurance from the MarketScan database for the years 2003 to 2007. Population weights that consider the age, sex, and geographic distribution of enrollees are assigned to construct representative estimates. We compare two types of price indexes: (1) a Service Price Index (SPI) that is similar to the BLS index, which holds services fixed and measures the prices of the underlying treatments; (2) a Medical Care Expenditure Index (MCE) that measures the cost of treating diseases and allows for utilization shifts. Over the entire period of study the CAGR of the SPI grows 0.7 percentage points faster than the preferred MCE index. Our findings suggest that the health component of inflation may be overstated by 0.7 percentage points per year, and real GDP growth may be understated by a similar amount. However, more work may be necessary to precisely replicate the indexes of the BLS to obtain a more accurate measure of these price differences.

Predicting Inflation: Portfolio Erosion or Collapse?

What is the probability of high inflation; how high, when? These questions are important to all investors since even the 2% level to which we are accustomed will cut an investor’s portfolio by over 17% during a decade. This 2% level is the target of the Federal Reserve, along with near 0% interest rates, for a risk free rate of -2%. This guarantees portfolio erosion absent risk-taking, which could result in even lower returns if the risks of loss are realized. An AARP article characterizes this as The War On Savers. Higher inflation is possible, at 4% or more, with even worse effects. There are heated debates about the probability and timing of high inflation, but our review of the extensive literature reveals no reliable way to predict its onset or extent. Expert opinion predicts inflation best, but it has failed to predict the onset or extent of inflation, and past inflation predicts the experts’ estimates as well as the experts predict future inflation. Debt levels are very high, and inflation is one of the possibilities for deleveraging. The Japanese have proved that high debt can exist without inflation for at least a decade or two, at least in their particular circumstances. Our high debt levels are partly due to the housing collapse. We propose months of unsold housing inventory as an indicator likely to decline before a sustained housing rally, and shelter is both the largest single component of inflation and affects consumer wealth and psychology. We also propose that portfolio erosion through 2% inflation is likely to continue for the present, and that much higher inflation is unlikely until the economy strengthens, but that it remains a risk until deleveraging has occurred by some other means. We suggest monitoring banks’ Federal Reserve deposit levels, which are reported weekly, as another barometer of inflation risk. A portfolio invested in traditional liquid assets – stocks, bonds, and cash – is unlikely to weather high inflation intact; the extent of the damage to each of these asset categories varies widely among inflationary periods and is volatile within these periods.

A factorial decomposition of inflation in Peru: an alternative measure of core inflation

A dynamic factorial decomposition model of inflation is estimated using Peruvian monthly data for January 1995–July 2008. This model allows the identification of changes in three relevant inflation components: idiosyncratic relative prices, aggregate relative prices and absolute prices. Furthermore, following Reis and Watson (2007), the model allows measuring pure inflation as the common factor in the inflation rate that has a proportionate effect to all prices and that is not correlated with relative-price changes at any period of time. This pure inflation estimate relates closely to standard measures of core inflation. The results are robust to different lag structures and various stochastic assumptions on the estimated factors.