Dynamics Of Components Research Articles

Integrated simulation platform for conventional, connected and automated driving: A design from cyber–physical systems perspective

A comprehensive assessment of connected and automated driving is imperative before its large-scale deployment in reality, which can be economically and effectively implemented via a credible simulation platform. Nonetheless, the key components of traffic dynamics, vehicle modeling, and traffic environment are oversimplified in existing simulators. Current traffic simulators normally simplify the function of connected and autonomous vehicles by proposing incremental improvements to the conventional traffic flow modeling methods, which cannot reflect the characteristics of the realistic connected and autonomous vehicles. On the other hand, typical autonomous vehicle simulators only focus on individual function verification in some specific traffic scenarios, omitting the network-level evaluation by integrating both large-scale traffic networks and vehicle-to-anything (V2X) communication. This paper designs a comprehensive simulation platform for conventional, connected and automated driving from a transportation cyber–physical system perspective, which tightly combines the core components of V2X communication, traffic networks, and autonomous/conventional vehicle model. Specifically, three popular open-source simulators SUMO, Omnet++, and Webots are integrated and connected via the traffic control interface, and the whole simulation platform will be deployed in a Client/Server model. As the demonstration, two typical applications, traffic flow optimization and vehicle eco-driving, are implemented in the simulation platform. The proposed platform provides an ideal and credible testbed to explore the potential social/economic impact of connected and automated driving from the individual level to the large-scale network level.

The winding road to health: A systematic scoping review on the effect of geographical accessibility to health care on infectious diseases in low- and middle-income countries.

BackgroundGeographical accessibility to healthcare is an important component of infectious disease dynamics. Timely access to health facilities can prevent disease progression and enables disease notification through surveillance systems. The importance of accounting for physical accessibility in response to infectious diseases is increasingly recognized. Yet, there is no comprehensive review of the literature available on infectious diseases in relation to geographical accessibility to care. Therefore, we aimed at evaluating the current state of knowledge on the effect of geographical accessibility to health care on infectious diseases in low- and middle-income countries.Methods and findingsA search strategy was developed and conducted on Web of Science and PubMed on 4 March 2019. New publications were checked until May 28, 2020. All publication dates were eligible. Data was charted into a tabular format and descriptive data analyses were carried out to identify geographical regions, infectious diseases, and measures of physical accessibility among other factors. Search queries in PubMed and Web of Science yielded 560 unique publications. After title and abstract screening 99 articles were read in full detail, from which 64 articles were selected, including 10 manually. Results of the included publications could be broadly categorized into three groups: (1) decreased spatial accessibility to health care was associated with a higher infectious disease burden, (2) decreased accessibility was associated to lower disease reporting, minimizing true understanding of disease distribution, and (3) the occurrence of an infectious disease outbreak negatively impacted health care accessibility in affected regions. In the majority of studies, poor geographical accessibility to health care was associated with higher disease incidence, more severe health outcomes, higher mortality, and lower disease reporting. No difference was seen between countries or infectious diseases.ConclusionsCurrently, policy-makers and scientists rely on data collected through passive surveillance systems, introducing uncertainty on disease estimates for remote communities. Our results highlight the need for increasing integration of geographical accessibility measures in disease risk modelling, allowing more realistic disease estimates and enhancing our understanding of true disease burden. Additionally, disease risk estimates could be used in turn to optimize the allocation of health services in the prevention and detection of infectious diseases.

Population dynamics of priority geostrategic Territories of Russia in 2010-2018

The article presents an analysis of the dynamics of the population of the priority geostrategic territories of the Russian Federation. They are highlighted in the "Strategy for the Spatial Development of the Russian Federation until 2025" as territories that are of particular importance for the development of the country as a whole and are distinguished at the same time by special life conditions and the functioning of the economy due to their geographical location. Population dynamics for such territories is both a factor determining socio-economic development and an indicator of the effectiveness of this development. The components of the population dynamics - natural growth and migration flows - are of particular importance. The article describes all four groups of priority geostrategic territories of Russia - isolated from the main territory of the country (exclaves), located in the North Caucasus and the Far East, in the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation. For each group, trends in population dynamics have been identified since the 2010 census, taking into account the components of natural growth and migration. The multidirectional aspect of the main demographic processes in the priority geostrategic territories of the country is revealed - natural growth is combined with the migration outflow of the population, and the migration inflow - with natural decline. At the same time, in the exclave and North Caucasian territories, the population is growing, and in the Far Eastern and Arctic territories it is decreasing. The features of both groups of priority geostrategic territories in comparison with Russia as a whole and of individual constituent entities of the Russian Federation and municipalities within groups of territories are shown. The latter became possible due to the use of the database "Municipal Russia", that summarises demographic statistics for all urban districts and municipal areas of the country, including those located in priority geostrategic territories. As a result of the analysis of the population dynamics, directions have been identified that can lead to an improvement in the demographic situation in the priority geostrategic territories of the country, and, accordingly, will contribute to the socio-economic development of not only these territories, but the entire Russian Federation

Statistically correcting dynamical electron scattering improves the refinement of protein nanocrystals, including charge refinement of coordinated metals.

Electron diffraction allows protein structure determination when only nanosized crystals are available. Nevertheless, multiple elastic (or dynamical) scattering, which is prominent in electron diffraction, is a concern. Current methods for modeling dynamical scattering by multi-slice or Bloch wave approaches are not suitable for protein crystals because they are not designed to cope with large molecules. Here, dynamical scattering of nanocrystals of insulin, thermolysin and thaumatin was limited by collecting data from thin crystals. To accurately measure the weak diffraction signal from the few unit cells in the thin crystals, alow-noise hybrid pixel Timepix electron-counting detector was used. The remaining dynamical component was further reduced in refinement using a likelihood-based correction, which was introduced previously for analyzing electron diffraction data of small-molecule nanocrystals and was adapted here for protein crystals. The procedure is shown to notably improve the structural refinement, in one case allowing the location of solvent molecules. It also allowed refinement of the charge states of bound metal atoms, an important element in protein function, through B-factor analysis of the metal atoms and their ligands. These results clearly increase the value of macromolecular electron crystallography as a complementary structural biology technique.

MD simulations reveal the basis for dynamic assembly of Hfq–RNA complexes

The conserved protein Hfq is a key factor in the RNA-mediated control of gene expression in most known bacteria. The transient intermediates Hfq forms with RNA support intricate and robust regulatory networks. In Pseudomonas, Hfq recognizes repeats of adenine–purine–any nucleotide (ARN) in target mRNAs via its distal binding side, and together with the catabolite repression control (Crc) protein, assembles into a translation–repression complex. Earlier experiments yielded static, ensemble-averaged structures of the complex, but details of its interface dynamics and assembly pathway remained elusive. Using explicit solvent atomistic molecular dynamics simulations, we modeled the extensive dynamics of the Hfq–RNA interface and found implications for the assembly of the complex. We predict that syn/anti flips of the adenine nucleotides in each ARN repeat contribute to a dynamic recognition mechanism between the Hfq distal side and mRNA targets. We identify a previously unknown binding pocket that can accept any nucleotide and propose that it may serve as a ‘status quo’ staging point, providing nonspecific binding affinity, until Crc engages the Hfq–RNA binary complex. The dynamical components of the Hfq–RNA recognition can speed up screening of the pool of the surrounding RNAs, participate in rapid accommodation of the RNA on the protein surface, and facilitate competition among different RNAs. The register of Crc in the ternary assembly could be defined by the recognition of a guanine-specific base–phosphate interaction between the first and last ARN repeats of the bound RNA. This dynamic substrate recognition provides structural rationale for the stepwise assembly of multicomponent ribonucleoprotein complexes nucleated by Hfq–RNA binding.

Interrelation of Precessed Motions of the Gyroscope

The fundamental principles of the gyroscope theory contain the system of the inertial torques generated by the rotating mass of the spinning disc that interrelated by the ratio of its angular velocities rotation around axes. The action of the centrifugal, common inertial Coriolis forces and the change in the angular momentum generate the system of inertial torques. These four dynamical components make up the system of the eight torques acting simultaneously on the spinning disc. They manifest their action in gyroscopic effects. The ratio of the precessed motions of the gyroscope presents one of the gyroscopic effects around axes of rotation. The known mathematical model for this ratio contains an error that was corrected in this work.

Fiscal policies, public investments and wellbeing: mapping the evolution of the EU

The European Union faced several crises in the last twenty years that destabilized its macroeconomic equilibrium and development capacity. Standard economic methodologies were capable of neither predicting nor completely solving these crises through appropriate investments. To understand the overall development performance, the well-known Human Development Index (HDI) is the most widely deployed conceptual framework. In this article, we look at the components of welfare dynamics in the EU by examining socioeconomic performance. Through a 'beyond gross domestic product (GDP)' * The research is conceptually related to the activities of the European Topic Centre on Waste, materials and the Green Economy (ETC WMGE, European Environment Agency). It is also within the research activities of the 2018-2022 UNIFE project on Circular economy, Innovations and SMEs funded by MIUR Italian ministry under the 'Departments of excellence' programme, and the activities of the related CERCIS research centre on Circular Economy, Innovation and SMEs.

Effects of stochastic growth on population dynamics and management quantities estimated from an integrated catch-at-length assessment model: Panopea globosa as case study

In size-based stock assessment models, the stochastic growth of individuals is expressed through a transition matrix representing the growth variability as probability of shift from one length class to another during a time period. This process is important because it describes the changes in population size structure brought about by the increase in length or weight of organisms over time. In this study, four stochastic growth matrices were developed within an integrated catch-at-length assessment model (ICLAM), and the changes in the population dynamics and quantities relevant to fishery management of Panopea globosa were analyzed. The growth increments were estimated through von Bertalanffy, Gompertz, Logistic, and Schnute models using a gamma probabilistic density function. A corrected Akaike information criterion was used to select the best performance among the four ICLAMs. The ICLAM associated with the von Bertalanffy matrix was the best for describing the catch-at-length data, providing conservative estimates on the condition of the stock; while the ICLAM for the Logistic matrix showed low performance, exhibiting the highest estimates for all the components of population dynamics, such as an increase of 75.3% in the recruitment and 58.5% in the total abundance with regard to the von Bertalanffy matrix. These differences emphasize the importance of determining a suitable stochastic growth matrix because it has serious implications in biasing stock assessments, resulting in inadequate management strategies.

Inertial drag and lift forces for coarse grains on rough alluvial beds measured using in-grain accelerometers

Abstract. Quantifying the force regime that controls the movement of a single grain during fluvial transport has historically proven to be difficult. Inertial micro-electromechanical system (MEMS) sensors (sensor assemblies that mainly comprise micro-accelerometers and gyroscopes) can used to address this problem using a “smart pebble”: a mobile inertial measurement unit (IMU) enclosed in a stone-like assembly that can measure directly the forces on a particle during sediment transport. Previous research has demonstrated that measurements using MEMS sensors can be used to calculate the dynamics of single grains over short time periods, despite limitations in the accuracy of the MEMS sensors that have been used to date. This paper develops a theoretical framework for calculating drag and lift forces on grains based on IMU measurements. IMUs were embedded a spherical and an ellipsoidal grain and used in flume experiments in which flow was increased until the grain moved. Acceleration measurements along three orthogonal directions were then processed to calculate the threshold force for entrainment, resulting in a statistical approximation of inertial impulse thresholds for both the lift and drag components of grain inertial dynamics. The ellipsoid IMU was also deployed in a series of experiments in a steep stream (Erlenbach, Switzerland). The inertial dynamics from both sets of experiments provide direct measurement of the resultant forces on sediment particles during transport, which quantifies (a) the effect of grain shape and (b) the effect of varied-intensity hydraulic forcing on the motion of coarse sediment grains during bedload transport. Lift impulses exert a significant control on the motion of the ellipsoid across hydraulic regimes, despite the occurrence of higher-magnitude and longer-duration drag impulses. The first-order statistical generalisation of the results suggests that the kinetics of the ellipsoid are characterised by low- or no-mobility states and that the majority of mobility states are controlled by lift impulses.

An Accounting Procedure for Bonds with a Double Currency Denomination in Accordance with the IFRS

The study is devoted to the development of accounting procedure and recording the financial results of bonds with a double currency denomination in accordance with International Financial Reporting standards (IFRS). The methodological base of the research includes system and dynamic-situational analysis, evaluation models of financial mathematics, accounting procedures of the theory of financial accounting. Based on the assumptions made at the formal mathematical level, this procedure is fully algorithmized, despite the ambiguity or impossibility of direct assessment of such basic accounting indicators as the initial estimate, the internal effective interest rate, and the amortized cost of a financial instrument. Considerable attention is paid to the issues of mathematical evaluation and reflection of financial results when preparing financial statements in accordance with the concept of amortized cost and effective interest rate, taking into account the impact of changes in the currency component in dynamics. The originality and uniqueness of the developed procedure is that it is applicable to the situations where coupon payments are paid several times a year. The theoretical and practical significance of the research is determined by the development of scientific and applied tools that include accounting and process models, evaluation algorithms and procedures that can be used by accounting and audit departments in practical work when solving problems of reporting in accordance with IFRS.

Demographic problems of geostrategic territories of the Russian Far East

The article presents an analysis of the demographic problems of the priority geostrategic territories of the Russian Far East. Such territories are characterized in the «Strategy for Spatial Development of the Russian Federation to 2025» as having a particular significance for development of the country as a whole, but differing in special conditions of the population life and functioning of the economy due to their geographical location. The main problem of the Far East geostrategic territories of the country is depopulation, which is both a factor that slows down the socio-economic development and an indicator that characterizes the low performance of this development. Components of the population dynamics that lead to its decline — natural growth and migration flows — are of particular importance. The article identifies multidirectional nature of the main demographic processes — natural growth is mainly combined with migration outflow of the population. The regions of the Far East that managed to increase their population in 2010-2018 with this combination are the Republics of Sakha (Yakutia) and Buryatia. Specific features of the Far East priority geostrategic territories in comparison with Russia as a whole are shown. The analysis is based on the «Municipal Russia» database, which summarizes the demographic statistics for all urban districts and municipal districts of the country, including those located on the priority geostrategic territories. As a result of the analysis of population dynamics, we have identified directions that can lead to an improvement in the demographic situation in the priority geostrategic territories of the Far East, and, accordingly, will contribute to the socio-economic development of not only these territories, but also the entire Russian Federation.

Polarized kilonovae from black hole–neutron star mergers

ABSTRACT We predict linear polarization for a radioactively powered kilonova following the merger of a black hole and a neutron star. Specifically, we perform 3D Monte Carlo radiative transfer simulations for two different models, both featuring a lanthanide-rich dynamical ejecta component from numerical-relativity simulations while only one including an additional lanthanide-free disc-wind component. We calculate polarization spectra for nine different orientations at 1.5, 2.5, and 3.5 d after the merger and in the $0.1\!-\!2\, \mu$m wavelength range. We find that both models are polarized at a detectable level 1.5 d after the merger while show negligible levels thereafter. The polarization spectra of the two models are significantly different. The model lacking a disc wind shows no polarization in the optical, while a signal increasing at longer wavelengths and reaching $\sim 1\!-\!6{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ at $2\, \mu$m depending on the orientation. The model with a disc-wind component, instead, features a characteristic ‘double-peak’ polarization spectrum with one peak in the optical and the other in the infrared. Polarimetric observations of future events will shed light on the debated neutron richness of the disc-wind component. The detection of optical polarization would unambiguously reveal the presence of a lanthanide-free disc-wind component, while polarization increasing from zero in the optical to a peak in the infrared would suggest a lanthanide-rich composition for the whole ejecta. Future polarimetric campaigns should prioritize observations in the first ∼48 h and in the $0.5\!-\!2\, \mu$m range, where polarization is strongest, but also explore shorter wavelengths/later times where no signal is expected from the kilonova and the interstellar polarization can be safely estimated.

Solar east-west flow correlations that persist for months at low latitudes are dominated by active region inflows

Context. Giant-cell convection is believed to be an important component of solar dynamics. For example, it is expected to play a crucial role in maintaining the Sun’s differential rotation. Aims. We reexamine early reports of giant convective cells detected using a correlation analysis of Dopplergrams. We extend this analysis using 19 years of space- and ground-based observations of near-surface horizontal flows. Methods. Flow maps are derived through the local correlation tracking of granules and helioseismic ring-diagram analysis. We compute temporal auto-correlation functions of the east-west flows at fixed latitude. Results. Correlations in the east-west velocity can be clearly seen up to five rotation periods. The signal consists of features with longitudinal wavenumbers up to m = 9 at low latitudes. Comparison with magnetic images indicates that these flow features are associated with magnetic activity. The signal is not seen above the noise level during solar minimum. Conclusions. Our results show that the long-term correlations in east-west flows at low latitudes are predominantly due to inflows into active regions and not to giant convective cells.

Calibrating large-ensemble European climate projections using observational data

Abstract. This study examines methods of calibrating projections of future regional climate for the next 40–50 years using large single-model ensembles (the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble and Max Planck Institute (MPI) Grand Ensemble), applied over Europe. The three calibration methods tested here are more commonly used for initialised forecasts from weeks up to seasonal timescales. The calibration techniques are applied to ensemble climate projections, fitting seasonal ensemble data to observations over a reference period (1920–2016). The calibration methods were tested and verified using an “imperfect model” approach using the historical/representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) archive. All the calibration methods exhibit a similar performance, generally improving the out-of-sample projections in comparison to the uncalibrated (bias-corrected) ensemble. The calibration methods give results that are largely indistinguishable from one another, so the simplest of these methods, namely homogeneous Gaussian regression (HGR), is used for the subsequent analysis. As an extension to the HGR calibration method it is applied to dynamically decomposed data, in which the underlying data are separated into dynamical and residual components (HGR-decomp). Based on the verification results obtained using the imperfect model approach, the HGR-decomp method is found to produce more reliable and accurate projections than the uncalibrated ensemble for future climate over Europe. The calibrated projections for temperature demonstrate a particular improvement, whereas the projections for changes in precipitation generally remain fairly unreliable. When the two large ensembles are calibrated using observational data, the climate projections for Europe are far more consistent between the two ensembles, with both projecting a reduction in warming but a general increase in the uncertainty of the projected changes.

Pressure Drag for Shallow Cumulus Clouds: From Thermals to the Cloud Ensemble

AbstractThis study takes the first step to bridge the gap between the pressure drag of a shallow cloud ensemble and that of an individual cloud composed of rising thermals. It is found that the pressure drag for a cloud ensemble is primarily controlled by the dynamical component. The dominance of dynamical pressure drag and its increased magnitude with height are independent of cloud lifetime and are common features of individual clouds except that the total drag of a single cloud over life cycle presents vertical oscillations. These oscillations are associated with successive rising thermals but are further complicated by the evaporation‐driven downdrafts outside the cloud. The horizontal vorticity associated with the vortical structure is amplified as the thermals rise to higher altitudes due to continuous baroclinic vorticity generation. This leads to the increased magnitude of local minima of dynamical pressure perturbation with height and consequently to increased dynamical pressure drag.

Lianas research in the Neotropics: overview, interaction with trees, and future perspectives

A systematic review (1950–2018) summarizes the research on woody lianas and their interaction with trees in the Neotropics. We identify knowledge gaps, propose new directions for future studies and discuss the control, management, and conservation of lianas. Lianas are key components of species composition, structure and dynamics of tropical forests. Current global warming scenario, however, are favoring increases in the abundance and density of lianas in tropical forests, affecting tree growth, fertility, and the number of tree injuries, therefore, increasing tree mortality over time. Here, we present a systematic review of studies on Neotropical lianas and its relation with trees, aiming to (1) establish the current state of ecological research, identifying knowledge gaps and propose new directions and perspectives for future studies; (2) offer baseline knowledge to support the control, management and conservation of lianas. We surveyed the literature on lianas (woody climbers) since 1900 to 2018 retaining 427 papers. We organized the literature by country, vegetation type, topic addressed and whether the study focused exclusively on lianas or lianas and trees. Our review demonstrated the importance of lianas in tropical forests, and the scarcity of studies on woody savannas and especially extremely dry vegetations as the Caatinga seasonally dry forests and xeric shrublands. Regardless of their remarkable importance and their contribution for diversity, biomass and carbon flux, lianas are rarely included in global vegetation models and have been overlooked in restoration, control, and management programs. We must consider the relevance of lianas in maintaining diversity and microclimate, and as resources for native animals, such as pollinators, herbivores, and seed dispersers, as well as for traditional human communities. Research on ecophysiology and functional spectral traits, and management of lianas are among the key areas in the Anthropocene.

SMN protein promotes membrane compartmentalization of ribosomal protein S6 transcript in human fibroblasts

Alterations of RNA homeostasis can lead to severe pathological conditions. The Survival of Motor Neuron (SMN) protein, which is reduced in Spinal Muscular Atrophy, impacts critical aspects of the RNA life cycle, such as splicing, trafficking, and translation. Increasing evidence points to a potential role of SMN in ribosome biogenesis. Our previous study revealed that SMN promotes membrane-bound ribosomal proteins (RPs), sustaining activity-dependent local translation. Here, we suggest that plasma membrane domains could be a docking site not only for RPs but also for their encoding transcripts. We have shown that SMN knockdown perturbs subcellular localization as well as translation efficiency of RPS6 mRNA. We have also shown that plasma membrane-enriched fractions from human fibroblasts retain RPS6 transcripts in an SMN-dependent manner. Furthermore, we revealed that SMN traffics with RPS6 mRNA promoting its association with caveolin-1, a key component of membrane dynamics. Overall, these findings further support the SMN-mediated crosstalk between plasma membrane dynamics and translation machinery. Importantly, our study points to a potential role of SMN in the ribosome assembly pathway by selective RPs synthesis/localization in both space and time.

Anthropogenic Fires in West African Landscapes: A Spatially Explicit Model Perspective of Humanized Savannas

Fire regimes are important components of environmental dynamics, but our understanding of them is limited. Despite recent advances in the methodologies used to remotely sense and map fires and burned areas and new case studies that shed light on local fire use and management practices, the scientific community still has much to learn about anthropogenic fire regimes. We identify two areas for improvement: first, the fine-scale heterogeneity of fire dynamics for specific regions is often masked by global-scale approaches, and second, barriers between the disciplines focusing on fire impacts hamper the development of knowledge of the human dimensions of fire regimes. To address the “blind spot” that these limitations create, we present a simple dynamic model of fire ignition in savanna systems. The aim is to connect the local and global scales of fire regimes by focusing on human fire management (anthropogenic fire). Our dynamical model is based on a study area in Western Burkina Faso and integrates biophysical elements (climate and soil data), land cover, and fire management scenarios based on field surveys. The simulation results offer contrasting views of the impact of local fire management practices on regional fire regimes observed in savannas. Fire density and frequency are local variables that clearly change the fire regimes despite a complex and constrained biophysical system. This experience, drawing from fieldwork and modelling, may be a way to integrate some key aspects of anthropogenic fire research in savanna systems.

Fast field cycling NMR relaxometry as a tool to monitor Parmigiano Reggiano cheese ripening

It is widely recognized that the longer the ageing, the more valuable Parmigiano Reggiano (PR) cheese becomes, due to the improvement of its sensorial and nutritional properties. Up to now, the evaluation of PR properties has been performed on samples mainly aged up to 40 months. For this reason, this study was aimed at collecting information about the chemical-physical characteristics of PR cheeses after ageing at 24, 48 and 84 months. The basic analyses on water amount, protein content and volatile organic compounds (VOC) revealed that PR ageing is associated to the decomposition of the organic components into smaller units. This drives water molecules closer to the aforementioned units, thereby leading to a reduction of water activity. Moreover, it appears, from VOC investigation, that either the total amount of long chain fatty acids (LCFA) or the sole 9Z-octadecenoic acid considerably increased with PR aging, thereby making these molecular systems good fingerprint to monitor PR ripening. Fast field cycling (FFC) NMR relaxometry revealed different components of the molecular dynamics in the complex PR cheese samples, which were attributed to water trapped in casein micelles, water bound to polar groups in organic components, proteins, and fats. In particular, the reduction of the correlation times associated to the organic components was explained by the molecular size decrement following degradation processes. The ageing-independent component of the motion was assigned to water molecules bound to polar groups in organic moieties. Finally, the ageing-independent contribution to the overall relaxation rate was assigned to water molecules in casein micelles. This study revealed that FFC NMR relaxometry can be a promising technique to monitor the chemical physical changes during Parmigiano Reggiano cheese ripening.

Statistical Challenges of The Sustainable Development in Iraq

Many challenges on the road to sustainable development face Iraq. Data limitations cause massive constraints on sustainable development goals checking because about 70% of indicators are missing in Iraq. Statistical indicators are considered as the basis of sustainable development in each country. The healthy population was the third goal of sustainable goals because the healthy population produces a high level of sustainable development. Consequently, fertility is an important indicator of a healthy population because it is one of the three principal components of population dynamics that increases the size of any country's population. The important indicator of fertility is the number of newborns for the married women. Therefore, the problem of this research is about 70% of sustainable development goals indicators currently are missing in Iraq, especially inferential indicators including modelling of the association between the phenomena and their risk factors. Then the goal of this research is to build a model to represent the association between the fertility and its risk factors to provide an inferential indicator about this phenomenon to identify the most influential risk factors. Several risk factors are facing the pregnancy before childbirth, but what are the most influential risk factors cause it? The count regression models are a statistical technique may be used to express the association between the number of fertility and its risk factors. A simple random sample was drawn with size (200) consists of the mothers who visit the primary health care centres in Babylon province-Iraq in year 2018. Biological, behavioural and lifestyle factors are recorded. The results of applying Poisson regression model show that the data was overdispersion, with nonlinear function and with number of outliers. Therefore, the nonparametric Poisson model was used as an alternative model to this data. The results of applying this model show that the most influential risk factors are five linear risk factors in addition to three nonparametric smoothing factors.