Complex Trade Network Research Articles

Cotton in the Indo-Pacific: Historical Origins, Linguistic Diffusion, and Socioeconomic Impacts

This study investigates the historical origins, linguistic diffusion, and socioeconomic impacts of cotton (Gossypium spp.) in the Indo-Pacific region. By reviewing secondary data from historical texts, linguistic databases, and archaeological reports, the research explores how Gossypium species, domesticated in both the Old and New Worlds, spread through complex trade networks and cultural exchanges. The study analyzes the dissemination patterns of cotton-related terminology across various language families and examines the socioeconomic effects of cotton cultivation and trade, including its influence on labor systems, economic structures, and cultural practices. While the findings highlight cotton’s significant role in shaping global markets and cultural inter-actions, the study’s limitations – such as its reliance on secondary sources, a two-month research duration, and a focus on a specific geographical area – warrant cautious interpretation. These constraints may limit the comprehensiveness and depth of the analysis, suggesting the need for future research to incorporate primary data collection, a broader geographical scope, and an extended study period. Despite these limitations, the study contributes to a nuanced understanding of cotton’s historical, economic, and cultural significance, emphasizing the need for sustainable agricultural practices in contemporary cotton production.

Tracing spatiotemporal changes in agricultural and non-agricultural trade networks of India.

The evolving international economic instability and international trade relationship demand a nation to move towards a self-reliant integrated system at a sub-national scale to address the growing human needs. Given India's role in the global trade network, it is critical to explore the underlying extensive complex trade network at the domestic scale. The potential advantages of complex interaction among the different commodities remain unexplored despite the known importance of trade networks in maintaining food security and industrial sustainability. Here we perform a comprehensive analysis of agricultural flows in contrast with non-agricultural commodities across Indian states. The spatio-temporal evolution of the networks from 2010-2018 was studied by evaluating topological network characteristics of consistent spatially disaggregated trade data. Our results show an increase in average annual trade value by 23.3% and 15.4% for agriculture and non-agriculture commodities, respectively, with no significant increase in connectivity observed in both networks. However, they depict contrasting behavior concerning the spatio-temporal changes, with non-agriculture trade becoming more dependent on production hubs and the agriculture trade progressing toward self-reliance, which signifies the evolution of the diversification in the existing agrarian trade network. Our findings could serve as an important element in deepening the knowledge of practical applications like resilience and recovery by devising design appropriate policy interventions for sustainable development.

Gladiatorial Spectacles in Crete


 
 
 This article examines the epigraphic and archaeological evidence attesting the staging of gladiatorial and associated spectacles in Roman Crete. The evidence indicates shows held in the capital of the province, Gortyn; in the colony of Knossos, in Hierapytna, and possibly in Chersonesos and Kissamos. Some of the spectacles that took place in Gortyn were extraordinary and very costly, including beast fights, public executions and gladiatorial combats with sharp weapons. The cities that presented these spectacles were leading towns and principal ports for the complex trade networks in which the island was involved, and open to innovation. The wealth thereby accumulated enabled the execution of new public infrastructures in these towns, among them the new type of spectacle building that appeared in the Mediterranean, the amphitheater.
 
 

Impacts of Trade Friction and Climate Policy on Global Energy Trade Network

The trade impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine have raised questions about the role of trade and climate policies in energy security and global emissions. This study updates a widely used integrated assessment model (IAM), MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM, to represent complex trade networks to explicitly draw energy flows from their origins to their destination. It then examines the effects of (1) energy trade tariff policies, such as import tariffs, as a proxy to represent an unfriendly trade environment and (2) a global carbon emissions tax on the global energy trade network. Results indicate that trade tariff policies have marginal effects on the trade network, i.e., the size of trade and importing-exporting regions do not change significantly. While high import tariffs significantly reduce emissions due to reduced fossil fuel imports in the importing region, this effect does not translate to significant emission reductions globally, as trade policies only impact downstream of the energy supply chain. However, a carbon emission tax dramatically alters the trade network, by (1) reducing its size by up to 50% and (2) forming trade linkages that allow for a more complex and diverse network of suppliers. This diversity under the emissions tax scenario improves the energy security of major energy-importing regions. Moreover, under an emission tax scenario, a friendly trade environment reduces the energy system costs globally. However, trade friction, such as sanctions or high import tariffs, will increase the energy supply cost significantly, especially for energy-importing regions such as Europe, East and South Asia.

Characterizing the Structural Evolution of Cereal Trade Networks in the Belt and Road Regions: A Network Analysis Approach.

Cereal trade is essential for economic and commercial cooperation among countries along the “Belt and Road” (BRI). It helps ensure food security and contributes to building a community of interests and destinies for the BRI countries. Based on the UN Comtrade database, this study, using a network analysis approach, investigates the structural characteristics and spatiotemporal dynamics of cereal trade networks among the “Belt and Road” countries. Results show that: (1) The cereal trade among the BRI countries has formed well-connected and complex trade networks, and the “Belt and Road” initiative has significantly promoted cereal trade networks among the BRI countries. (2) The backbone structures of cereal trade networks along the BRI are in geographical proximity. India, Russia, and Ukraine are the most important trading partners and absolute core nodes in the trade networks, influencing the entire cereal trade networks. (3) The BRI cereal trade networks exhibit significant core-periphery structures, with considerable power asymmetries between the countries reflecting food supply and demand differences. In general, the BRI cereal trade networks have developed from relatively diversified to polarized. Supply chains in the cereal trade network are dominated by a few large countries and are fragile, with weak resilience and low resistance to risk. Therefore, governments should continue to strengthen regional cooperation, optimize cereal trade network structure, enhance their reserve capacity, and build a stronger system to guarantee food security and prevent risk. All these measures will support the food security of the “Belt and Road” countries.

A Modelling Strategy to Estimate Conditional Probabilities of African Origins: The Collapse of the Oyo Empire and The Transatlantic Slave Trade, 1817–1836

Abstract Intra-African conflicts during the collapse of the kingdom of Oyo from 1817 to 1836 resulted in the enslavement of an estimated 121,000 people who were then transported to coastal ports via complex trade networks and loaded onto slave ships destined for the Americas. Historians have a good record of where these people went across the Atlantic, but little is known about where individuals were from or enslaved within Africa. In this work, we develop a novel statistical modelling strategy to describe the enslavement of people given documented violent conflict, the transport of enslaved peoples from their location of capture to their port of departure, and—given an enslaved individual's location of departure—that person's probability of origin. We combine spatial prediction of conflict density via kriging with a Markov decision process characterising intra-African transportation. The results of this model can be visualised using an interactive web application to plot—for the first time—estimated conditional probabilities of historical origins during the African diaspora. Understanding the likely origins within Africa of enslaved people may have ramifications for the history of the Atlantic world, whereby the ocean connects, rather than disconnects, Africa, the Americas, and Europe.

Mitochondrial DNA Footprints from Western Eurasia in Modern Mongolia.

Mongolia is located in a strategic position at the eastern edge of the Eurasian Steppe. Nomadic populations moved across this wide area for millennia before developing more sedentary communities, extended empires, and complex trading networks, which connected western Eurasia and eastern Asia until the late Medieval period. We provided a fine-grained portrait of the mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) variation observed in present-day Mongolians and capable of revealing gene flows and other demographic processes that took place in Inner Asia, as well as in western Eurasia. The analyses of a novel dataset (N = 2,420) of mtDNAs highlighted a clear matrilineal differentiation within the country due to a mixture of haplotypes with eastern Asian (EAs) and western Eurasian (WEu) origins, which were differentially lost and preserved. In a wider genetic context, the prevalent EAs contribution, larger in eastern and central Mongolian regions, revealed continuous connections with neighboring Asian populations until recent times, as attested by the geographically restricted haplotype-sharing likely facilitated by the Genghis Khan’s so-called Pax Mongolica. The genetic history beyond the WEu haplogroups, notably detectable on both sides of Mongolia, was more difficult to explain. For this reason, we moved to the analysis of entire mitogenomes (N = 147). Although it was not completely possible to identify specific lineages that evolved in situ, two major changes in the effective (female) population size were reconstructed. The more recent one, which began during the late Pleistocene glacial period and became steeper in the early Holocene, was probably the outcome of demographic events connected to western Eurasia. The Neolithic growth could be easily explained by the diffusion of dairy pastoralism, as already proposed, while the late glacial increase indicates, for the first time, a genetic connection with western Eurasian refuges, as supported by the unusual high frequency and internal sub-structure in Mongolia of haplogroup H1, a well-known post-glacial marker in Europe. Bronze Age events, without a significant demographic impact, might explain the age of some mtDNA haplogroups. Finally, a diachronic comparison with available ancient mtDNAs made it possible to link six mitochondrial lineages of present-day Mongolians to the timeframe and geographic path of the Silk Route.

Re-evaluating Scythian lifeways: Isotopic analysis of diet and mobility in Iron Age Ukraine.

The Scythians are frequently presented, in popular and academic thought alike, as highly mobile warrior nomads who posed a great economic risk to growing Mediterranean empires from the Iron Age into the Classical period. Archaeological studies provide evidence of first millennium BCE urbanism in the steppe while historical texts reference steppe agriculture, challenging traditional characterizations of Scythians as nomads. However, there have been few direct studies of the diet and mobility of populations living in the Pontic steppe and forest-steppe during the Scythian era. Here, we analyse strontium, oxygen, and carbon isotope data from human tooth enamel samples, as well as nitrogen and carbon isotope data of bone collagen, at several Iron Age sites across Ukraine commonly associated with ‘Scythian’ era communities. Our multi-isotopic approach demonstrates generally low levels of human mobility in the vicinity of urban locales, where populations engaged in agro-pastoralism focused primarily on millet agriculture. Some individuals show evidence for long-distance mobility, likely associated with significant inter-regional connections. We argue that this pattern supports economic diversity of urban locales and complex trading networks, rather than a homogeneous nomadic population.

Analysis of pigs' movement to Lombardy (Northern Italy) to assess the potential risk of pathogens introduction into this region and to plan mitigation measures

to analyse the trade flow of pigs to Lombardy (Northern Italy) to single out the farms more involved in animal movements to identify the holdings and areas most exposed to the risk of introducing pathogens into the region and to plan proper mitigation measures. Indeed, the movement of live animals and of the means of transport is one of the main risk factors in the spread of diseases and this is particularly relevant in areas with high stocking density. statistical analysis on movements of pigs entering Lombardy was carried out. Data on pigs' movements and farm characteristics were collected from the National and Regional databases. Social Network Analysis (SNA) was used to analyse the flows of pigs to Lombardy, to identify the holdings and geographical areas that are central in the trading network and that could have a role in the introduction of swine pathogens into the region. data on pigs' movements introduced into Lombardy in 2016 were analysed. Lombardy is a region of Northern Italy with intensive livestock husbandry. The pig sector is of particular economic relevance also in view of the processing industry, suited to the production of high quality pork products. Annually about 1.8 million pigs are introduced into the region also to satisfy the request of the processing industry for the production of pork products. in this study, the farms that buy pigs from outside the region were identified as well as the territories where the largest number of pigs are introduced. The analysis was carried out also considering certain factors related to the movement of animals, which can be relevant for the transmission of pathogens, such as number of commercial partners, number of exchanged animals, and number of shipments. in 2016, 1,782,568 pigs were introduced into Lombardy; by using SNA, it was possible to highlight a complex trade network of pigs, mainly involving the Northern regions. Indeed, the pigs were mostly purchased from Emilia Romagna (33.4%), followed by Veneto and Piedmont. These regions have been the most closely analysed in this study. SNA was also used to identify Lombardy territories (provinces and municipalities) which, based on the number of introduced pigs, are potentially most exposed to the introduction of pathogens from outside the region. Mantua and Brescia provinces resulted the most exposed area. Italy is one of most important European producers of pigs and about 50% of national pig assets is present in Lombardy; furthermore, about 1.8 million pigs are introduced yearly into the region. Currently, the region is free from the main diseases of pigs and the introduction of an epidemic disease into the pig population could adversely affect the entire productive sector. For this reason, an analysis of the movements of pigs entering the region was carried out to identify the areas (provinces, municipalities) and holdings most exposed to the risk of introduction of pathogens. This information is relevant for the veterinary authorities to plan appropriate control activities (official controls, surveillance, biosecurity, and vaccination, where possible) in order to enhance disease prevention and promote early detection.

The process of economic change of the Papuans in Jayapura

This paper seeks to explain the process of economic change of the Papuans in Jayapura which tends to be subsistence-oriented in the face of a market economy that came with the wave of transmigration since the 1960s. Amid market economy penetration, Papuans are included in a dual economy where a subsistence orientation to meet domestic needs is still being carried out but at the same time facing a capitalistic market economy so that what follows is only the expansion of subsistence and marginality. History shows that Papuans with a subsistence-based economy find it difficult to compete with price-based markets and a large number of migrants having complex trade networks and more established access to expanses. In addition, the relatively small scale of trade and the lack of technical aspects of trading in a market economy such as bargaining, debts and subscription systems make it difficult for Papuans to collect profits from their trading. The community and the regional or central government responded to this with strategies and policies that provided momentum for the expansion of their commercial businesses. This study then looks at how the strategies and momentum that emerged and utilized optimally by the Papuans to develop their economy and what factors would inhibit or drive it.

Inequality and collaboration in north China urban agglomeration: Evidence from embodied cultivated land in Jing-Jin-Ji's interregional trade

An urban agglomeration is a highly connected city group, which is nested in complex trading networks. Ignoring the intercity connections and regional inequality may lead to the unsustainability of the urban agglomeration. The misuse and overuse of cultivated land resources are threatening environmental sustainability and causing global climate change. Facing the inequality and environment pressures in the urban agglomeration, the cultivated land resource reallocation within the complex urban agglomeration trading network should be systematically explored. This study analyzes the virtual cultivated land flows of the Jing-Jin-Ji (JJJ) region embodied in China's interregional trade network using a multiregional input-output model. Results show that the average virtual cultivated land intensity of the JJJ region is 1.59 ha/million yuan, which is below the national average. The JJJ region has 10.74 million ha of embodied cultivated land in consumption, accounting for 7.82% of the country's total amount. JJJ region is an import-oriented region and it receives virtual cultivated land from surrounding underdeveloped regions, such as Heilongjiang and Inner Mongolia. Beijing and Tianjin are typical net importers of virtual cultivated land, while Zhangjiakou, Xingtai, Hengshui, Baoding, and Cangzhou are net exporters in the interior of the JJJ region. This study could provide a systematical perspective and data supporting system for formulating the sustainable cultivated land use policies and collaborated development policies in the JJJ region to mitigate regional inequality. Policy suggestions concerning the eco-compensation mechanism, collaborative innovation mode, and uniform management platform in JJJ are given.

Industrial applications of selected JFS articles

Industrial applications of selected <i>JFS</i> articles

Are global value chains truly global?

Are global value chains (GVCs) truly global or are they more of a regional phenomenon? We provide a new perspective on this issue using network analysis based on the measure of trade in value added. We first show that GVC activities can be consistently identified and grouped into three types of networks, i.e. traditional, simple, and complex trade networks, according to the number of times that factor contents cross national borders in global production sharing. Further investigation on the changes in topology and structure of various networks reveals that, GVCs are more likely organized regionally and dominated by large countries, like the US, China, and Germany. However, at the sector level, what GVCs look like largely depends on the perspective (supply or demand) and the type of networks adopted. This can help better understand the possible structural change of GVCs brought by the US–China trade war and the COVID-19 pandemic.

Hierarchical Structures in Livestock Trade Networks-A Stochastic Block Model of the German Cattle Trade Network.

Trade of cattle between farms forms a complex trade network. We investigate partitions of this network for cattle trade in Germany. These partitions are groups of farms with similar properties and they are inferred directly from the trade pattern between farms. We make use of a rather new method known as stochastic block modeling (SBM) in order to divide the network into smaller units. SBM turns out to outperform the more established community detection method in the context of disease control in terms of trade restriction. Moreover, SBM is also superior to geographical based trade restrictions and could be a promising approach for disease control.

The evolution of obsidian procurement in ancient Oaxaca, Mexico: New data from the Sistema 7 Venado architectural complex, Monte Albán

Recent archaeological investigations (2009–2016) in the Sistema 7 Venado, a ceremonial complex located on the south part of the Monte Albán hill, Oaxaca, Mexico, demonstrates that occupation and ceremonial activity on the site can be traced back until 800 BCE. Around 200–300 CE, this site was ritually abandoned and its structures covered by a thick layer of soil. This process indirectly offered a good protection of architectural structures and occupation levels. The chemical composition of 416 obsidian artefacts discovered during the excavations campaigns were analysed by PIXE technique to determine their origin and to replace the Sistema 7 Venado development into the complex trade network of the central valleys of Oaxaca. The results led us to twelve obsidian sources, Otumba, Pacheco, Zacualtipán/Metzquititlán, Sierra de Pachuca, Malpaís, Paredón, Zaragoza, Guadalupe Victoria, Pico de Orizaba, Altotonga, Ucareo and Magdalena, and also revealed variations in the areas of supplies through time.

The gravity of wildlife trade

Unsustainable trade in wildlife products both legally and illegally is a leading cause of population declines and increased extinction risk in commercially valuable species. However due to the clandestine nature of illegal trade and paucity of overarching studies of legal trade our understanding on international trade networks is patchy. We develop a gravity–underreporting modelling framework to analyse and compare: (i) data on the legal trade in mammalian, avian and reptilian products from recorded by The Convention on the International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES) and (ii) to data on the seizures of illegal products entering the USA between 2004 and 2013. We find substantial differences in the factors driving legal trade for the 3 taxonomic groups considered, indicating different drivers for different product markets. Illegal imports for all groups were associated with increasing exporter GDP. We found higher probabilities of underreporting for avian and reptile products, and in general central Africa, central Asia, Eastern Europe and Pacific Island states showed higher underreporting than other regions, indicating the existence of complex trade networks and the potential for the laundering of illegal products through legal markets. Our results show the important regional and economic trends driving wildlife trade. Our new modelling framework can also help illuminate previously unseen aspects of illegal and legal wildlife trade, which can help with the implementation of interventions to curb the impact of trade on wild populations.

LOGÍSTICA DE TRANSPORTES, COMÉRCIO INTERNACIONAL E FLUXOS DAS EXPORTAÇÕES NO NORTE DE MINAS GERAIS - DOI 10.5216/bgg.v36i1.40368

As relações econômicas internacionais estão organizadas em redes flexíveis e complexas de trocas comerciais articuladas espacialmente pela logística de transportes. O objetivo foi analisar as interações espaciais entre a região norte de Minas Gerais e os mercados internacionais, considerando-se a configuração territorial dos setores exportadores, dos meios de transportes e dos recintos alfandegados responsáveis pelos fluxos de mercadorias, no período de 2001 a 2012. A pesquisa foi operacionalizada por meio da revisão de literatura, das coletas e das análises dos dados de fontes primárias e de fontes secundárias, para a explicação das redes de fluxos das exportações na região norte-mineira. A logística de transportes utilizada no escoamento das mercadorias exportadas foi organizada em uma rede de serviços constituída de transportes nacionais, de recintos alfandegados e de transportes internacionais.Palavras-chave: Logística de transportes, comércio internacional, exportações.

Regionalization and risk

Purpose– The purpose of this study is to examine the nature of regional macroeconomic risk by examining the trade networks formed by regional multinational enterprise (MNE) activity at the aggregate level, and exploring the subsequent implications on the vulnerability of those networks to economic shocks.Design/methodology/approach– The study draws on contemporary developments in graph theory to revisit the nature and dynamics of complex trade networks in the Southeast Asian region from 1990 to 2012.Findings– Findings indicate that the topology of the regional trade network has changed significantly in the period examined, in that it has become denser, more connected and more clustered. Analysis further indicates that disruptions to the trade network during periods of shock have exhibited decreasing levels of magnitude, pointing to greater robustness over time.Research limitations/implications– The results show that intra-regional MNE activity has the effect of reducing risk in the region. If MNEs aim to reduce their risk exposure, they must first deepen their commitment to the regional market.Originality/value– This paper enriches current understanding of the changing nature of regional risk, and represents one of the first efforts to examine international trade networks in light of recent developments in the understanding of networks beyond the conventional random graph.

A Clash of Treaties: The Lawfulness of Countermeasures in International Trade Law and International Investment Law

Countermeasures are part of customary international law and have been incorporated into the WTO as a mechanism to facilitate compliance. In the NAFTA sugar disputes, Mexico claimed that the measure in dispute was a countermeasure against a breach of NAFTA by the United States. Three US investors also claimed against Mexico under the investment chapter of NAFTA. All three ICSID tribunals held, for different reasons, that trade countermeasures affecting investor rights would be unlawful. Some of the tribunals’ reasoning that investors have direct rights could set up a clash between the trade and investment regimes. We argue that an authorized trade countermeasure should also be lawful in the investment law context. Coherence between the trade and investment regimes is essential in this age of global value chains in which investors are part of a complex trade network. We suggest ways to improve the jurisprudence and existing investment treaties.

Trading networks, abnormal motifs and stock manipulation

We study trade-based manipulation of stock prices from the perspective of complex trading networks constructed by using detailed information of trades. A stock trading network consists of nodes and directed links, where every trader is a node and a link is formed from one trader to the other if the former sells shares to the latter. Specifically, three abnormal network motifs are investigated, which are found to be formed by a few traders, implying potential intention of price manipulation. We further investigate the dynamics of volatility, trading volume, average trade size and turnover around the transactions associated with the abnormal motifs for large, medium and small trades. It is found that these variables peak at the abnormal events and exhibit a power-law accumulation in the pre-event time period and a power-law relaxation in the post-event period. We also find that the cumulative excess returns are significantly positive after buyer-initiated suspicious trades and exhibit a mild price reversal after seller-initiated suspicious trades. These findings can be better understood in favour of price manipulation. Our work sheds new lights into the detection of price manipulation resorting to the abnormal motifs of complex trading networks.