Complex Systems Thinking Research Articles

Pathways to transformative adaptation in southern African cities: A criteria-based assessment in Harare and Durban

Transformative adaptation (TA) places emphasis on changing the underlying causes of climate risk. Little is known about how TA can be achieved in practice in southern African cities. This paper reports on a set of criteria, derived from the literature and transdisciplinary engagements, for taking TA from theory into practice. These are: fundamental/sustainable changes in thinking and doing; inclusivity; challenging power asymmetries; demonstrability; responsive and flexible; and holistic, complex systems thinking. These criteria were explored through five water-related projects in Durban (South Africa) and Harare (Zimbabwe), which were identified by actors as having transformative potential to reduce urban climate risks. The study suggests that trade-offs might need to be made between several of these criteria, with strong synergies between others. Challenging power asymmetries is important in southern African cities where adaptation should change the structures of society that give rise to highly differential climate vulnerabilities. Challenging power structures largely requires true inclusivity and an equal stake in shaping decisions as opposed to tokenistic participation. While TA is needed in southern African cities, the complexity of these contexts and the scale of TA ambition introduces practical challenges when compared with incremental adaptation, i.e. small changes to existing practices to reduce climate impacts within the current development paradigm. Given such practical limitations, the paper concludes that TA in southern African cities might pragmatically be attempted as part of a process of ongoing learning to identify opportunities for gradual restructuring and expanding, in scale and ambition towards transformation.

Explore before you restore: Incorporating complex systems thinking in ecosystem restoration

Abstract The global movement for ecosystem restoration has gained momentum in response to the Bonn Challenge (2010) and the UN Decade on Ecosystem Restoration (UNDER, 2021–2030). While several science‐based guidelines exist to aid in achieving successful restoration outcomes, significant variation remains in the outcomes of restoration projects. Some of this disparity can be attributed to unexpected responses of ecosystem components to planned interventions. Given the complex nature of ecosystems, we propose that concepts from Complex Systems Science (CSS) that are linked to non‐linearity, such as regime shifts, ecological resilience and ecological feedbacks, should be employed to help explain this variation in restoration outcomes from an ecological perspective. Our framework, Explore Before You Restore, illustrates how these concepts impact restoration outcomes by influencing degradation and recovery trajectories. Additionally, we propose incorporating CSS concepts into the typical restoration project cycle through a CSS assessment phase and suggest that the need for such assessment is explicitly included in the guidelines to improve restoration outcomes. To facilitate this inclusion and make it workable by practitioners, we describe indicators and methods available for restoration teams to answer key questions that should make up such CSS assessment. In doing so, we identify key outstanding science and policy tasks that are needed to further operationalize CSS assessment in restoration. Synthesis and applications. By illustrating how key Complex Systems Science (CSS) concepts linked to non‐linear threshold behaviour can impact restoration outcomes through influencing recovery trajectories, our framework Explore Before You Restore demonstrates the need to incorporate Complex Systems thinking in ecosystem restoration. We argue that inclusion of CSS assessment into restoration project cycles, and more broadly, into international restoration guidelines, may significantly improve restoration outcomes.

СТРАТЕГІЯ РОЗВИТКУ ДИЗАЙН-ОСВІТИ В ПОВОЄННІЙ УКРАЇНІ: ТРАНСДИСЦИПЛІНАРНИЙ ПІДХІД

The activities of designers in the new conditions require a qualitatively new way of thinking. The features of training designers with a new level of professional thinking are considered. A set of problems related to the specifics of the process of design thinking formation has been studied as a means of adapting to social transformations in post-war Ukraine. And also as a means of creating and transmitting new ideas in a single cognitive space of dynamic events. Design, forming material and visual culture, becomes a tool for understanding the properties of the surrounding world and human capabilities. By creating a material, spatial, subject environment, design is a key tool for innovation and competition, growth and development. This is important for the effective revival of post-war Ukraine and its flourishing. Therefore, a triad of actions is strategically important for design education - the formation of hybrid design thinking in the learning process, the expansion of the worldview and mastering the principles of risk prediction. New tools and technologies are valuable for design education, which contribute to creative and innovative activity through the triadic technology of forming natural design thinking, forming balanced creative-critical thinking, as well as 3D visualization of information flows of various nature in a single cognitive space. The growth of the influence of algorithms and artificial intelligence in modern society has created a new reality that negatively affects mental health and thinking, human cognition and interpersonal communication. Therefore, the transformation of design education on a transdisciplinary basis will allow solving urgent problems in post-war Ukraine. In our opinion, the key to the formation of design thinking is the triadic technology for solving systemic problems, the use of which contributes to the formation of balanced creative-critical thinking. It is important to systematically analyze the viability of biological objects and objects in extreme conditions using a code-symbol and a code-algorithm. Note that the heuristic metamodels of complex dynamic systems (cyber-physical systems, fractal systems), as a rule, have the form of the Star of David. Harmonization of interrelations and inversion of harmoniously connected opposites in information flows of various nature makes it possible to form hybrid complex-systemic thinking in the learning process, using metaheuristic models of cyber-physical systems, cognitive computing and artificial intelligence look like the Star of David. Its new interpretation as a code-algorithm for finding a balance between creative and critical thinking contributes to the formation of innovative thinking in the process of design activity.

Exploring Sustainable Operations Management in Major Infrastructure Projects: The Case of the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge

This study systematically analyzes sustainable operations management (SOM) in major infrastructure projects (MIPs). The study proposes systematic definitions of MIP-SOM and studies sustainability improvement in MIP operations management from complex systems thinking. Based on literature review and deconstructive analysis, a conceptual model of the MIP-SOM system and an integrated framework for MIP-SOM practices were constructed. Additionally, per an in-depth case analysis of the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge (HZMB), a progressive roadmap for the MIP-SOM was developed. These results offer a systematic theoretical framework to guide MIP-SOM implementation and provide a solution for the substantive improvement of MIP sustainability.

Условия реализации «сознательно-товарищеских» начал организационно-управленческой модели А. Богданова

The paper continues the discussion of the problem “The significance of A. A. Bogdanov’s tectology for modern systems theory and its applications”, posed in the report of G. B. Kleiner “A new look at the socio-economic space: A. Bogdanov’s organizational and managerial model” at the XXVI International scientific-practical conference “System Analysis in Design and Management”. The article is devoted to the study of the conditions for the implementation of the “consciously comradely” principles of the organizational and managerial model of A. Bogdanov. Difficulties in the implementation of “consciously comradely” principles in a modern society with a diversified economy are discussed. A model of the system is presented that is applicable for modeling organizational management of any degree of generality in space and time. The projection of the spatial model on the time axis allows using the past for a more complete analysis of the current state of the system and predicting its future. It is emphasized that in the idea of “conscious cooperation” the determining link is a person, his personal qualities. The obstacles in the upbringing of a socially oriented personality are discussed. The predominance of the animal nature in man during critical periods of the development of society is indicated. The problems of educating a harmonious personality and the factors preventing this are discussed. The disadvantages of domestic education include uncritical borrowing of the current knowledge of the world community without taking into account their historicism, which affects the loss of national identity and originality of national development. Another disadvantage is the narrow specialization of workers, which does not contribute to the development of complex systems thinking. The conditions for the emergence of comradely relations in the labor collective are listed. An opinion is expressed about their low dependence on the structure of the economy and finiteness in time.

Review of Teaching for Complex Systems Thinking. By Rosemary Hipkins (2021)

Review of Teaching for Complex Systems Thinking. By Rosemary Hipkins (2021)

How a child entangles empathy and computational thinking in reasoning about fairness

In this work, we argue for expanding the scope of K-12 computational thinking (CT) integration contexts to include everyday scenarios involving moral reasoning. Epistemic overlap between computational thinking practices and moral reasoning suggest that these contexts are potentially rich sites to see “seeds of CT” in children's reasoning and can provide rich educational pathways for children into CT. Taking a case-study approach, we examine the reasoning of a second-grader, Ollie, on a task involving fair allocation of resources to victims of a natural disaster. Our analysis finds that Ollie's reasoning was rich with seeds of CT (e.g., problem formulation, abstraction, complex-systems thinking) and that empathy served as an important supporting role to the CT. This work has implications for curricular design, suggesting that fairness and resource allocation scenarios with built-in opportunities for empathy might provide rich sandboxes for CT integration.

On the architecture of collaboration in inter-organizational natural resource management networks

This paper reviews the architecture of collaboration that exists within inter-organizational natural resource management (NRM) networks. It presents an integrative conceptual framework designed to help operationalize the multi-level interactions that occur between different dimensions of trust, risk perception, and control as key concepts in inter-organizational collaboration. The objective is to identify and justify a series of propositions considered suitable for assessing inter-organizational NRM network collaboration through empirical work. Such an integrative conceptualization goes beyond the existing trust scholarship related to collaborative NRM, and, we argue, offers a useful starting point for further exploring some of the ‘inner’ social dynamics affecting collaborative performance using complex systems thinking. To help establish the relevance of the conceptual framework to transboundary resource governance, a survey operationalizing different dimensions of trust, perceived risk, and control is piloted in the Salish Sea, an ecosystem that spans the Canada-US border between British Columbia and Washington State. Key challenges associated with operationalizing the framework and future research needs are identified.

Kerangka Kerja Berpikir Sistem Menggunakan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam sebagai Pengetahuan Konten Sistem Kompleks

Understanding complex systems is an important goal for science learning, so it requires a deep understanding of complex systems knowledge as a subject matter that should be taught in schools. The analysis was conducted to find the dimensions of complex systems and their relevance to the characteristics of systems thinking in the context of science. The systems thinking framework in science learning materials is built based on the dimensions of complex systems and systems thinking. The results of the conceptualization of systems thinking framework are expected to provide a way to select science learning materials as content knowledge of complex systems and contribute to complex systems learning that facilitates systems thinking.

Complex Systems Thinking Approach to Urban Greenery to Provide Community-Tailored Solutions and Enhance the Provision of Cultural Ecosystem Services

This paper presents a GIS-based method for supporting local administrations in the design of urban green areas while taking into account the complexity of the whole system. The proposed method merges the criteria of availability, accessibility, attractiveness, usability, and suitability in a multi-level approach (city, neighborhood green area) to assist in the selection of which services within green areas to enhance from those requested by citizens. The case study is an urban park in a medium-sized Italian city (Perugia). The results demonstrate that the available urban green spaces amount to 34.7 m2 per person, but only 24% of citizens have adequate access to a green area providing at least an adequate level of service, and 18% of them are without access to any appropriately equipped green area. Furthermore, citizens have limited knowledge of their city’s urban green system as a whole. Indeed, 41% of the requested services were already available in other accessible green areas with attractive and readily available dedicated equipment. These areas were suggested as alternative solutions. To achieve a complex systems approach, our results suggest observing similar systems with various and adaptable scales and studying them as open networks composed of heterogeneous internal and external variables.

Comparing first- and third-person perspectives in early elementary learning of honeybee systems

Prior literature has begun to demonstrate that even young children can learn about complex systems using participatory simulations. This study disentangles the impacts of third-person perspectives (offered by traditional simulations) and first-person perspectives (offered by participatory simulations) on children’s development of such systems thinking in the context of the emergent complexity of honeybee nectar foraging. Specifically, we worked with three first-grade classrooms assigned to one of three conditions—instruction through use of a first-person perspective only, third-person perspective only, and integrated instruction—to engage ideas of complex systems thinking. In each condition, systems concepts were targeted through instruction and assessment. The integrated and third-person classrooms demonstrated significant gains while the first-person classroom showed gains that were not statistically significant, suggesting that third-person perspectives play a critical role in how children learn systems thinking. This work also puts forth a novel assessment design for young children using multiple-choice questions.

From inert matter to the global society life as multi-level networks of processes

A few billion years have passed since the first life forms appeared. Since then, life has continued to forge complex associations between the different emergent levels of interconnection it forms. The advances of recent decades in molecular chemistry and theoretical biology, which have embraced complex systems approaches, now make it possible to conceptualize the questions of the origins of life and its increasing complexity from three complementary notions of closure: processes closure, autocatalytic closure and constraints closure. Developed in the wake of the second-order cybernetics, this triple closure approach, that relies on graph theory and complex networks science, sketch a paradigm where it is possible to go up the physical levels of organization of matter, from physics to biology and society, without resorting to strong reductionism. The phenomenon of life is conceived as the contingent complexification of the organization of matter, until the emergence of life forms, defined as a network of auto-catalytic process networks, organized in a multi-level manner. This approach of living systems, initiated by Maturana & Varela and Kauffman, inevitably leads to a reflection on the nature of cognition; and in the face of the deep changes that affected humanity as a complex systems, on the nature of cultural evolution. Faced with the major challenges that humanity will have to address in the decades to come, this new paradigm invites us to change our conception of causality by shifting our attention from state change to process change and to abandon a widespread notion of 'local' causality in favour of complex systems thinking. It also highlights the importance of a better understanding of the influence of social networks, recommendation systems and artificial intelligence on our future collective dynamics and social cognition processes. This article is part of the theme issue 'Unifying the essential concepts of biological networks: biological insights and philosophical foundations'.

Complex systems, part I: why 42 is rarely, if ever, the ultimate answer.

We describe the different categories of systems and systems thinking, and illustrate why almost all clinical interactions constitute simultaneously complex and complicated systems, so-called "wicked systems". We also discuss why they are not amenable to quantitative analysis. With the use of comparisons and illustrations we show some of the problems that reductionist metrics create, and support concerns regarding quantitative fallacy. The systematic correlation of data in medicine was one of the earliest achievements of the discipline. Recently, however, the overwhelming bias towards an evidence base, which relies almost entirely on randomised controlled trials, has created a reductionist view that often excludes important aspects of medicine and, in particular, surgery. We must now move away from thinking that is controlled by the "tyranny of metrics" to embrace complex-systems thinking, and work across disciplines. We outline the arguments for this and give clinical examples from oral and maxillofacial surgery.

Key competencies, complex systems thinking, and economics education for sustainability

The concept of key competencies is an important element of education for sustainability. The cornerstone of key competencies is complex systems thinking. Most who argue for the integration of key competencies into various learning processes also suggest that such integration requires critical reflection on traditional paradigms in various disciplines. This article examines the ramifications of such integration as it pertains to economics. It is argued that key competencies can be learned by studying and applying Peter Söderbaum's institutional ecological economics because it is based on complex systems thinking. It is also argued that traditional neoclassical environmental economics is not suited for the task because it is based on simple systems thinking. The article concludes with some thoughts regarding how case studies can be used to teach key competencies.

Key competencies, complex systems thinking, and economics education for sustainability

The concept of key competencies is an important element of education for sustainability. The cornerstone of key competencies is complex systems thinking. Most who argue for the integration of key competencies into various learning processes also suggest that such integration requires critical reflection on traditional paradigms in various disciplines. This article examines the ramifications of such integration as it pertains to economics. It is argued that key competencies can be learned by studying and applying Peter Soderbaum's institutional ecological economics because it is based on complex systems thinking. It is also argued that traditional neoclassical environmental economics is not suited for the task because it is based on simple systems thinking. The article concludes with some thoughts regarding how case studies can be used to teach key competencies.

The structure of mental models of sustainable agriculture

Progress towards sustainability is hampered by differing perceptions of how to advance goals in systems characterized by massive interdependency. Systems thinking has been advocated as a model for improving understanding and management of complex systems, but theory and methods to analyse systems thinking are not well developed. We propose and apply a new way of assessing systems thinking using social network tools to analyse mental models. We examine the cognitive maps of 148 thought leaders in sustainable agriculture in California and measure the extent to which each map captures six fundamental causal patterns. We find that the more complex forms of causal structure that are associated with systems thinking are relatively under-represented in the experts’ maps. Our findings have important implications for individual and collective decision making about sustainable agriculture and other science and policy debates involving complex systems. Cognitive mapping reveals how people think about complex systems and enables hypothesis tests on understanding interdependency. This study finds that education and experience are associated with more nuanced form of complex-systems thinking in sustainable agriculture, such as feedback loops and indirect effects.

Human immunomodulation and initial HIV spread

We use published data in order to build up a networked mathematical framework aiming at providing: (a) a predictive understanding on how distinct stressors and immunosenescence may potentially affect the natural inflammatory response mechanisms and (b) new insights to developing early interventions that seek to exploit natural immune processes. Relying on fifty fundamental assumptions on HIV immunopathogenesis, the model simulations suggested that: (a) from a translational perspective, forthcoming physiological transitions in the systemic inflammation process do exist with conditions for bifurcation between the uninfected and the infected state being seriously impacted by immunomodulation and (b) the required therapy efficacy for pre-exposure prophylaxis may be decisively affected by immunomodulation and by the drug class used. Whereas unsuitable to make quantitative predictions due to limited experimental data and the complexity in vivo, this modeling effort paves the way for assessing the impact of personalized medicine for global epidemics within complex systems thinking.

Comparing Virtual and Physical Robotics Environments for Supporting Complex Systems and Computational Thinking

Both complex systems methods (such as agent-based modeling) and computational methods (such as programming) provide powerful ways for students to understand new phenomena. To understand how to effectively teach complex systems and computational content to younger students, we conducted a study in four urban middle school classrooms comparing 2-week-long curricular units—one using a physical robotics participatory simulation and one using a virtual robotics participatory simulation. We compare the two units for their effectiveness in supporting students’ complex systems thinking and computational thinking skills. We find that while both units improved student outcomes to roughly the same extent, they engendered different perspectives on the content. That is, students using the physical system were more likely to interpret situations from a bottom-up (“agent”) perspective, and students using the virtual system were more likely to employ a top-down (“aggregate”) perspective. Our outcomes suggest that the medium of students’ interactions with systems leads to differences in their learning from and about those systems. We explore the reasons for and effects of these differences, challenges in teaching this content, and student learning gains. The paper contributes operationalizable definitions of complex systems perspectives and computational perspectives and provides both a theoretical framework for and empirical evidence of a relationship between those two perspectives.

Lessons from complex interventions to improve health.

Complexity-resulting from interactions among many component parts-is a property of both the intervention and the context (or system) into which it is placed. Complexity increases the unpredictability of effects. Complexity invites new approaches to logic modeling, definitions of integrity and means of standardization, and evaluation. New metaphors and terminology are needed to capture the recognition that knowledge generation comes from the hands of practitioners/implementers as much as it comes from those usually playing the role of intervention researcher. Failure to acknowledge this may blind us to the very mechanisms we seek to understand. Researchers in clinical settings are documenting health improvement gains made as a consequence of complex systems thinking. Improvement science in clinical settings has much to offer researchers in population health.

Complex Thought and Systems Thinking Connecting Group Process and Team Management: New Lenses for Social Transformation in the Workplace

This paper addresses group process and team management strategies. Recognizing the trajectory in both groups and teams, as living systems in our postmodern society, it challenges why teams are assessed as having better performance or development. Groups have been used for social transformation in many ways, and teams thrive in our zeitgeist, affecting almost the entire active working population. This paper discusses a new way to understand group process and teams using three bodies of knowledge: (1) complexity theory including dialogic, organizational recursion, and holographic principles and the knowledge through comprehension and explanation, (2) systems thinking properties applied to living systems, including interaction, interdependence, autonomy and dependency, organization and self-production, and (3) rhizomic structures as a mode of knowledge that is non-hierarchical and possibly provides a useful means of understanding society as interconnected alliances in movement. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.