Complex Socio-economic Phenomena Research Articles

Integral and generalized indicators of development and ensuring the national security of the country

Purpose: presentation of the results of research on the development and application of methods for calculating integral and generalized indicators intended for assessing the state and making effective management decisions in the field of development and ensuring national security of Russia.Methods: the following methods were used in the study: methods of statistical data preparation, the method of expert assessments, the T. Saaty method, the method of the Center for political conjuncture, the method of linear convolution.Results: the article provides an overview of approaches to managing development and ensuring national security in Russia and a number of foreign countries using various indicators. The authors have developed a methodology for forming integral and generalized indicators of development and ensuring the national security of Russia. The calculation of generalized indicators of the state of economic security in the field of civil air transportation and aircraft manufacturing in Russia in 2021-2022 is presented. The authors proposed a mechanism for analytical interpretation of the influence of changes in general and specific indicators on the transformation of the integral indicator.Сonclusions and Relevance: when studying complex socio-economic phenomena, there is a need to use generalized and integral assessments. This is due to the large amount of information that needs to be analyzed, summarized and structured. Generalized and integral indicators are necessary for forecasting and planning development while ensuring the national security of the country. Such indicators make it possible to quickly and efficiently assess current socio-economic processes, respond in a timely manner and take measures to solve emerging problems. In the article, the authors propose to analyze the dynamics of generalized and integral indicators characterizing the development and ensuring the national security of the country, which makes it possible to identify potential threats and risks and timely take measures to minimize them.

Intuitionistic Fuzzy Synthetic Measure on the Basis of Survey Responses and Aggregated Ordinal Data.

The paper addresses the problem of complex socio-economic phenomena assessment using questionnaire surveys. The data are represented on an ordinal scale; the object assessments may contain positive, negative, no answers, a “difficult to say” or “no opinion” answers. The general framework for Intuitionistic Fuzzy Synthetic Measure (IFSM) based on distances to the pattern object (ideal solution) is used to analyze the survey data. First, Euclidean and Hamming distances are applied in the procedure. Second, two pattern object constructions are proposed in the procedure: one based on maximum values from the survey data, and the second on maximum intuitionistic values. Third, the method for criteria comparison with the Intuitionistic Fuzzy Synthetic Measure is presented. Finally, a case study solving the problem of rank-ordering of the cities in terms of satisfaction from local public administration obtained using different variants of the proposed method is discussed. Additionally, the comparative analysis results using the Intuitionistic Fuzzy Synthetic Measure and the Intuitionistic Fuzzy TOPSIS (IFT) framework are presented.

Intuitionistic Fuzzy TOPSIS as a Method for Assessing Socioeconomic Phenomena on the Basis of Survey Data.

In the assessment of most complex socioeconomic phenomena with the use of multicriteria methods, continuous data are used, the source of which are most often public statistics. However, there are complex phenomena such as quality of life and quality of services in the assessment, for which questionnaire surveys and ordinal measurement scales are used. In this case, the use of classic multicriteria methods is very difficult, taking into account the way of presenting this type of data by official statistics, as well as their permissible transformations and arithmetic operations. Therefore, the main purpose of this study was the presentation of a novel framework which can be applied for assessing socioeconomic phenomena on the basis of survey data. It was assumed that the object assessments may contain positive or negative opinions and an element of uncertainty expressed in the form a “no”, “difficult to say”, or “no opinion” answers. For this reason, the intuitionistic fuzzy TOPSIS (IF-TOPSIS) method is proposed. To demonstrate the potential of this solution, the results of measuring the subjective quality of life of the inhabitants of 83 cities in EU countries, EFTA countries, the UK, the Western Balkans, and Turkey are presented. For most cities, a high level of subjective quality of life was observed using the proposed approach. The highest level of quality of life was observed in Zurich, whereas the lowest was observed in Palermo.

Unraveling the (Uneven) Linkage? A Reflection on Population Aging and Suburbanization in a Mediterranean Perspective

A complex interplay between socioeconomic transformations and demographic dynamics has characterized the long-term development of European countries. As a characteristic example of such linkage, the present study focuses on the spatial relationship between metropolitan growth and population age structure. Preferences for urban and suburban locations reflect complex socioeconomic phenomena such as sprawl, class segregation, gentrification and filtering. However, the spatial linkage between sprawl and demographic transitions was relatively poorly analyzed, and should be more extensively investigated in relation with population dynamics and socioeconomic structures at local scale. By reviewing pertinent literature, this study outlines how space exerts a non-neutral impact on population age structures in Europe, shaping housing needs and influencing settlement patterns and processes of urban transformation. While suburban locations have concentrated younger families and larger households in Northern and Western Europe, the socio-demographic composition of new settlements is increasingly dominated by older inhabitants in the Mediterranean region. Results of this work suggest how discontinuous urban expansion was specifically associated with an elder, wealthy population with high standard of living and a preference for specific housing locations such as detached villas with gardens and swimming pools.

Instrumental Variables Estimation of Systems of Simultaneous Equations: Interrelation of Methods

The article is devoted to the interrelation between methods of estimating parameters of simultaneous equations. Simultaneous equations model (SEM) is commonly used to model complex socio-economic phenomena. SEM is a set of linear simultaneous equations in which response variables are among explanatory variables in each equation of regression. This causes the problem of endogeneity and leads to biased and inconsistent estimation of parameters. There is a number of special methods to solve the problem of endogeneity of regressors: method of instrumental variables (IV), indirect least squares method (ILS), two-stage least squares method (2SLS), and three-stage least squares method (3SLS). In this article, the relationship between 2SLS and IV, ILS and 2SLS, ILS and OLS with restrictions on structural parameters, as well as the equivalence of point estimates of parameters and autocovariance matrices, is shown using empirical example.

Theoretical foundation of the research of the socio-economic systems development

Forming of efficient socio-economic policy in conditions of modern globalization trends is characterized by the fact that external environment becomes more and more unclear, its changes become more frequent and its consequences become unpredictable. There is an urgent need to search for the reserves to improve territorial management. The process of managerial decision-making is an integral part of management cycle. It is necessary to have complex information to make efficient decisions that enables establishment of the system of direct and reverse relations between the activity of legislative and executive authorities and response to them in the regions. The system of monitoring is currently the one that is most relevant under market conditions. It provides quick collection of information on complex socio-economic phenomena and processes expressed in a few important parameters for immediate diagnostics of an object’s condition. The article deals with theoretical foundations of the research of the social and economic systems development. The authors prove that development should be considered as a general process in the organic unity of the socio-economic system. The necessity of monitoring the social and economic system of the region is outlined. To achieve the goal, the following general scientific and special research methods are used: observation, generalization, comparison and analysis, abstract and logical method. According to the results of methodological approaches, the definition of the term "social and economic system" is presented. The essence of social and economic system is disclosed in the article. The article argues that the development of the social and economic system is formed in a complex by the interconnected factors and is provided by an effective mechanism of state regulation and management at the regional level. The authors prove that the essence of management of the development of socio-economic system can be defined as a special kind of purposeful activity, which contributes to the achievement of progressive changes in maintaining a dynamic equilibrium and the implementation of the process of expanded reproduction in the regions. The article provides suggestions over the development of monitoring of social and economic system in the region, which will allow to justify the priorities of social and economic development, will increase the effectiveness of strategic planning, forecasting and programming, and most importantly – will provide the necessary rates of economic growth and improving of the living standards.

Теоретичні засади ринку праці в економічній системі.

The labor market is an integral part of the general economic market mechanism. He is characterized as one of the most complex socio-economic phenomena of society, which reflects all aspects of his life, manifested the whole variety of his interests and contradictions. Therefore, the process of its functioning is constantly in the state view, since the reproduction of such a product as labor is the reproduction of labor resources and in general the productive forces of society.

Statistical Analysis of House Construction Capacity Dynamics in ex-USSR Countries

The relevance of the article is explained by the necessity of building more precise forecasts of developing socio-economic phenomena characterizing complex dynamics. The goal lies in analyzing the dynamics of launching of residential units in the post-Soviet countries and building a forecast with the account of the retrospective path movement of the indicator. The appliance of the “changing the growth (fall)” econometric model in the studied time-series has allowed to predict in a more precise way their path movement. The significance of the obtained results both for econometrics and residential property market economy are apparent and lie in mastering the methodology of building complex socio-economic phenomena, among which is the launching of residential units in the post-Soviet countries.

Имитационные эксперименты с моделью информационно-психологических воздействий на массовое сознание

The article deals with the problem of researching the dynamics of information and psychological influences on mass consciousness, the possibility of their forecasting and management, which is one of the most important aspects of ensuring the information and psychological security of society and its citizens. To research the dynamics of information and psychological influence on mass consciousness, the article suggests a method of system-dynamic modeling, grounded and implemented on models of complex socio-economic phenomena by J. FoiTcster in the 1950s. The application of this method to solving the problems of information security is investigated by various foreign scientific teams. The method of system- dynamic modeling allows to display and investigate many factors that critically affect the processes of information and psychological influences on mass consciousness. The following factors arc taken into account in the model proposed by the authors of the model: the probability of «enthusiasm» of ideas embedded in the content of information and psychological influences, with interpersonal contact and as a result of the influence of the mass media, the massiveness and regularity of the mass media propagandizing the idea of information and psychological influences, the probability of forgetting the idea, embedded in the content of information and psychological influences, the probability of communication on the topic, embedded in the content of information and psychological influences, the probability of «enthusiasm» ideas of information and psychological influences in one communication contact, the average number of acquaintances with one message in the media, the probability of «enthusiasm» of a new idea from the content of information and psychological influences after reading the information in the media, the number of contacts a person, keen on ideas of information and psychological influences, per day. The mathematical apparatus on which system- dynamic models are based are systems of differential equations. The authors of the article constructed an imitation model that makes it possible to identify the interrelationships between factors that effect the dynamics of information and psychological influences on mass consciousness, and its implementation has been carried out in the Anylogic software environment. This environment is one of the most promising environments for simulation. Temporal graphs reflecting the dynamics of the number of persons capable of adopting the idea of information and psychological influence, the number of persons who adopted the idea of information and psychological influences, and graphs reflecting the distribution in time of the number of persons who adopted the idea of information and psychological influences under certain initial conditions are given. Simulation experiments related to variations of the model parameters in which the dependence of increasing rate of person’s number who adopted the idea of information and psychological effects on the frequency of person’s contacts sharing these ideas is studied.

The Psychological Force Model for Lowest Unique Bid Auction

We study a type of complex system arising from economics, the lowest unique bid auction (LUBA) system which is a new generation of online markets. Different from the traditional auction in which the winner is who bids the highest price, in LUBA, the winner is whoever places the lowest of all unique bids. In this paper, we propose a multi-agent model to factually describes the human psychologies of the decision-making process in LUBA. The model produces bid-price distributions that are in excellent agreement with those from the real data, including the whole inverted-J shape which is a general feature of the real bid price distribution, and the exponential decreasing shape in the higher price range. This implies that it is possible for us to capture the essential features of human psychologies in the competitive environment as exemplified by LUBA and that we may provide significant quantitative insights into complex socio-economic phenomena.

Influence Model of User Behavior Characteristics on Information Dissemination

Quantitative analysis on human behavior, especially mining and modeling temporal and spatial regularities, is a common focus of statistical physics and complexity sciences. The in-depth understanding of human behavior helps in explaining many complex socioeconomic phenomena, and in finding applications in public opinion monitoring, disease control, transportation system design, calling center services, information recommendation. In this paper,we study the impact of human activity patterns on information diffusion. Using SIR propagation model and empirical data, conduct quantitative research on the impact of user behavior on information dissemination. It is found that when the exponent is small, user behavioral characteristics have features of many new dissemination nodes, fast information dissemination, but information continued propagation time is short, with limited influence; when the exponent is big, there are fewer new dissemination nodes, but will expand the scope of information dissemination and extend information dissemination duration; it is also found that for group behaviors, the power-law characteristic a greater impact on the speed of information dissemination than individual behaviors. This study provides a reference to better understand influence of social networking user behavior characteristics on information dissemination and kinetic effect.

Multiagent model and mean field theory of complex auction dynamics

Recent years have witnessed a growing interest in analyzing a variety of socio-economic phenomena using methods from statistical and nonlinear physics. We study a class of complex systems arising from economics, the lowest unique bid auction (LUBA) systems, which is a recently emerged class of online auction game systems. Through analyzing large, empirical data sets of LUBA, we identify a general feature of the bid price distribution: an inverted J-shaped function with exponential decay in the large bid price region. To account for the distribution, we propose a multi-agent model in which each agent bids stochastically in the field of winner’s attractiveness, and develop a theoretical framework to obtain analytic solutions of the model based on mean field analysis. The theory produces bid-price distributions that are in excellent agreement with those from the real data. Our model and theory capture the essential features of human behaviors in the competitive environment as exemplified by LUBA, and may provide significant quantitative insights into complex socio-economic phenomena.

A spring–block analogy for the dynamics of stock indexes

A spring–block chain placed on a running conveyor belt is considered for modeling stylized facts observed in the dynamics of stock indexes. Individual stocks are modeled by the blocks, while the stock–stock correlations are introduced via simple elastic forces acting in the springs. The dragging effect of the moving belt corresponds to the expected economic growth. The spring–block system produces collective behavior and avalanche like phenomena, similar to the ones observed in stock markets. An artificial index is defined for the spring–block chain, and its dynamics is compared with the one measured for the Dow Jones Industrial Average. For certain parameter regions the model reproduces qualitatively well the dynamics of the logarithmic index, the logarithmic returns, the distribution of the logarithmic returns, the avalanche-size distribution and the distribution of the investment horizons. A noticeable success of the model is that it is able to account for the gain–loss asymmetry observed in the inverse statistics. Our approach has mainly a pedagogical value, bridging between a complex socio-economic phenomena and a basic (mechanical) model in physics.

Quantitative indices based on 3D discrete wavelet transform for urban complexity estimation using remotely sensed imagery

Urbanization in most developing countries is gradually increasing. Quantitative estimation of urbanization to a standardized level is crucial for analysing the relation between urbanization and other factors, since urban growth affects diverse and complex natural and socio-economic phenomena. Spatially and spectrally, remotely sensed imageries covering urban areas display different characteristics from those of rural or mountainous areas. A three-dimensional discrete wavelet transform (3D DWT) scheme is regarded as useful for analysing both spatial and spectral information. In addition, the energy parameter of wavelet coefficient by 3D DWT indicates channels regarding dominant spatial and spectral frequency, extracted from the original image sets. Based on these spatial and spectral features and the energy parameter of 3D wavelet coefficients, three kinds of urban complexity index are proposed. Of the three indices, the third index is the most useful to quantitatively interpret urban complexity. These indices can be used for a basis to analyse the relationship between feature groups within urban environments.