Statistical Analysis of House Construction Capacity Dynamics in ex-USSR Countries

A.P Tsypin,S.A Bannikov,N.P Persteneva,T.V Lebedeva,V Mantulenko

doi:10.1051/shsconf/20196205003

Abstract

The relevance of the article is explained by the necessity of building more precise forecasts of developing socio-economic phenomena characterizing complex dynamics. The goal lies in analyzing the dynamics of launching of residential units in the post-Soviet countries and building a forecast with the account of the retrospective path movement of the indicator. The appliance of the “changing the growth (fall)” econometric model in the studied time-series has allowed to predict in a more precise way their path movement. The significance of the obtained results both for econometrics and residential property market economy are apparent and lie in mastering the methodology of building complex socio-economic phenomena, among which is the launching of residential units in the post-Soviet countries.

Highlights

The study of socio-economic phenomenа and processes in the long-term retrospective is one of the goals of econometrics and it allows to identify isomorphic development periods, establish the influence of the factors on the pattern of behavior of the time series, to create more exact forecasts
The historical time-series of house construction during the times of the USSR are mentioned in scientific literature, mainly from the point of view of separate regions and cities
Some of the works were dedicated to specific problems, for example, to the problem of house construction in the Soviet village of Central Russia and the pre-war period [4], to the post-war reconstruction of the cities [5]

Summary

Introduction

The study of socio-economic phenomenа and processes in the long-term retrospective is one of the goals of econometrics and it allows to identify isomorphic development periods, establish the influence of the factors on the pattern of behavior of the time series, to create more exact forecasts. The quantitive research of the dynamics of house construction in the USSR and the post-Soviet countries (from the historical point of view) was conducted by economists, statisticians, sociologists, historians and so on. Such a diversity of scientific directions stipulated the difference in methods and goals of their research works. Some of the works were dedicated to specific problems, for example, to the problem of house construction in the Soviet village of Central Russia and the pre-war period [4], to the post-war reconstruction of the cities [5]

Methods

Results

Conclusion